Those peaks look far, far away

From CNN/Money:

Home prices may not return to peak until 2023

Home prices are showing signs of life, but have a long way to go to make up for losses from the housing bust.

U.S. home prices dropped by a third from the start of 2007 to the start of 2012, according to Fiserv, an analytics firm.

Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the next five years — a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak. At that forecasted growth rate, the national average high of $238,000 would not be hit again until 2023.

It could take even longer in some areas. “In some hard-hit markets, prices could take decades to recover,” said Fiserv economist David Stiff.

Among those facing a long haul: Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, the states most caught up in the speculative feeding frenzy of the mid-2000s.

Homeowners in Nevada may have to wait the longest to make up lost ground. Home prices in the state plunged nearly 60%, and Fiserv projects annual gains of just 2.3%. It would take some 40 years at that pace to get back to 2007 levels.

Real estate, of course, is local, and there are many housing markets that never bubbled during the boom. In those places, buyers who bought in 2007 are much more likely to be in the money today. In South Dakota, Texas and West Virginia, prices are already slightly higher than they were five years ago.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

263 Responses to Those peaks look far, far away

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From Business Insider:

    The Housing Recovery Debate Is Over — Here’s What The Brand New Debate Is All Bout

    The Case-Shiller Home Price Index came out today, and it showed that houses prices in July rose 1.20% from last year.

    That was above the 1.10% that was expected, and it was an acceleration from the 0.59% gain from the previous month’s rate.

    But the real story is that people didn’t even seem to care that much.

    Home prices rise? Yawn.

    There are still some holdouts, but it’s just not that controversial anymore to point out that housing is coming back. That’s a major shift from a few months ago.

    But there’s a new debate.

    Does it matter? In other words: Can the housing rebound seriously boost the economy?

  3. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    The devil in the housing report details

    Home prices are rising, experts say, but not as much as one report may suggest. And to maintain a realistic view of any real-estate recovery, it may be wise to err on the conservative side.

    Prices rose by 1.2% in July over the year-earlier period, and 1.6% over the previous month, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released Tuesday.Read more on Case-Shiller report.

    Housing analysts are generally greeting this as good news, but it looks pallid compared with the most recent National Association of Realtors survey, which came out last week. That report estimated that the median sales price of existing homes rose 9.5% in the 12 months to August 2012, strongest increase since January 2006. July’s NAR report showed a similarly large gain.

    “Both reports show that there’s definitely more buying and selling of houses,” says Susan M. Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton University of Pennsylvania. “The market is stabilizing.”

    But some analysts say that the NAR report may present a too-rosy view of that market. Case-Shiller house prices are historically slightly more conservative than price data from the NAR, mostly because the report adjusts for the size of homes being sold, while the NAR’s price index does not. The result is that NAR’s numbers jump when homes at the high end of the market sell strongly, and larger and more expensive homes have lately been selling particularly well, says Jed Kolko, chief economist at real-estate listing site Trulia. “This is why the NAR median sales price has risen so much more than other indexes.”

  4. Juice Box says:

    Housing meh, no jobs and no wage increases and prices will go up? Housing will
    bounce along the bottom of this cliff we are on until.the next crisis or recession and then it will resume it’s decline. How long before the next recession? How about a nice oil shock that woild occur if the neocons get their way and we start another gulf war with Iran?

  5. grim says:

    I think you can sum up the view of the “housing leads” theorists in one word, confidence.

    It all boils down to an improved housing market being less of a drag on consumer confidence. As confidence improves somewhat, the gridlock breaks, spending improves, investment improves, improves worker mobility, etc. This in turn translates to increased economic activity, new hiring, new jobs, etc.

    Of course, the underlying assumption in all of this is that consumer confidence is what is holding back the recovery.

  6. grim says:

    Of course, you need to continue to draw a distinction between a recovery in the new homes market vs the existing homes market. A recovery in new home construction/sales has an obvious direct impact on the economy/gdp. While there is some associated spending associated with the trade of existing homes, admittedly it is considerably less (some durable goods – fridge, washer, dryer, other appliances, some services – painter, contractor, movers, other items – new furniture or other).

  7. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Man I can’t believe believe i missed out on the SDLC PMP, six sigma hate last night. All the black belts at my former company would ask me how I could be an auditor without a certification. My response I don’t need someone to teach me common sense and how to look for efficiencies I already have a brain that i know how to use.

    so when housing hits its peak again my kids will be nearing 8th grade. sounds like a perfect time to sell and go somewhere else.

  8. yo says:

    Housing was a 6 trillion dollar economy during the bubble.If we can get a quarter of this economy,1.5 trillion housing economy,it can seriously boost the economy.Jobs and businesses will be created.And most importantly,over 3 trillion $ of Fed QE and over a trillion $ companies are holding can be invested into the businesses.

  9. yo says:

    It is all psychological

    “Americans in Poll Feeling Better About Economy Than in 2009”

    feeling better = more spending = more demand= more businesses= more jobs

  10. grim says:

    We have had to move from virtual to physical servers to get performance back. New org is otherwise all virtual. DB performance had gone from minutes in previous Co on physical to hours when my group’s apps moved ( we were outsourced as a group).

    Yeah I remember our first foray into virtualization, it wasn’t pretty, I guess it was back in like 2007 or so. Our engineering guys proceeded to virtualize everything, massively consolidating servers. Way too optimistic about capacity, and the sizing exercise was done on a napkin. Absolutely no analysis around patterns of utilization across platforms and what overlap existed. I’m on the apps side, and our guys begged and pleaded to be left out of it, but it didn’t happen. Just as you mention, we went through a similar process of devirtualization.

    Ironically, it was around the same time we started to decomission our z9 infrastructure and move off the mainframe (a move that would take more than 5 years). The big joke was that our mainframe group had been doing virtualization for 25 years, and the PC guys only just learned how to do it. I think many of the issues we saw around server virtualization would have been much less painful if the two groups sat down together and discussed why the mainframe platforms were so dependent on job control and schedulers. Turns out those old guys did know a thing or two.

  11. Anon E. Moose says:

    Work4Beer [yest., closing costs];

    Every buyer is getting their pocket picked. The question is only by whom.

    As I look back now at my HUD; it still seems a bloody mess to me. I believe I have a good sense for what each individual line item is for, but numbers are listed and totaled in nearly incomprehensible ways; and most of all the ‘bottom line’ is anything but what I actually paid (see Douglas Adams on ‘Bistromathics’ and nonabsolute numbers for more insight).

    The big ticket items for me were pre-paying the impending property tax bill, next seeding the escrow fund (I feel I got a break in that they only asked for two months’ escrow to seed — I was told to expect three, but the timing worked out that my first payment would bring the escrow account up to three months before the beginning of the next quarter when the next tax payment would be due.

    Next ticket item for me was 1/2 point paid (insanely short break even time frame; I couldn’t pass it up); then title insurance (including an owner’s policy) — which you can’t really shop around; my lawyer; the title company.

    There was a little bit of +/- to some of the numbers (like balancing the quarterly tax bill for number of days sell v. buyer owned the house in the current qtr.); even understanding what was going on and how it was being done I could not precisely reproduce the title agent’s numbers – but it wasn’t far enough off to make a stink over it.

    The upshot of it was this: considering that my annual property taxes were 3.5% of the mortgage amount (0.875% per quarter); amounts directly related to property tax (current taxes due + seeding the escrow) were almost half of my closing costs. It is what it is, and the only way to avoid it is when you choose what property you’re going to buy (if you buy at all). Overall, my closing costs were (coincidentally) about 3.5% of the mortgage amount, reduced slightly by a sellers’ concession for un-remedied inspection issues.

  12. yo says:

    The Federal Reserve’s latest mortgage bond purchases so far are helping profit margins at lenders including Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) more than homebuyers and property owners looking to refinance.

    Since the Fed’s Sept. 13 announcement that it would buy $40 billion more securities per month, the rates offered for new 30- year loans have fallen by just 0.11 percentage point, compared with a drop of more than 0.6 percentage point for yields on the bonds into which the loans get packaged, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bankrate.com. The gap between the two, which typically signals increasing lender revenue when it widens, has reached a record of more than 1.6 percentage point.

    Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s stated goal of helping boost the housing market is being undercut by lenders’ inability to keep up with consumer demand, even as investors drive up bond prices. Banks have been slow to lower rates after being overwhelmed this year by applications to refinance mortgages.

    “Think about it this way: If you had a restaurant with 100 people out the door waiting in line, would lowering prices be the first thing on your mind?” said Scott Simon, the mortgage head at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s largest bond fund.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/fed-helps-lenders-profit-more-than-homebuyers-mortgages.html

  13. HouseWhineWine says:

    4) Never been busier at work (healthcare field).I don’t know if wages are going up but no problem at all with job security. Makes me feel “secure” and ready to purchase stuff I need but not going overboard. I feel cautiously optimistic.

  14. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [6];

    While there is some associated spending associated with the trade of existing homes, admittedly it is considerably less (some durable goods – fridge, washer, dryer, other appliances, some services – painter, contractor, movers, other items – new furniture or other).

    I just bought a new washer. Does that count? Did I move the needle again?

  15. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Mortgage applications rose as rates hit new lows: MBA

    Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose last week as interest rates dropped to record lows in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s latest stimulus efforts, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 2.8 percent in the week ended Sept 21.

    The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications climbed 3.3 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, added 0.7 percent.

    The refinance share of total mortgage activity increased to 81.2 percent of total applications, the highest share since early August.

    Fixed 30-year mortgage rates tumbled 9 basis points to average 3.63 percent, the lowest level in the history of the survey.

  16. yo says:

    “Over the past two years, a 1-percentage-point decline in mortgage-bond yields has generally translated into a 0.6- percentage-point decrease for rates, Barclays Plc analysts including Nicholas Strand wrote in a Sept. 21 report”

  17. Anon E. Moose says:

    Wine [13];

    At my current shop (~30 professionals + ~50 support staff over 2 offices) has had 5 professionals jump ship in the past year. Most got significant increases to move. Its a bit jarring to me actually — though some of the moves might have been pent-up while people hunkered down waiting for the economy to change directions. Anyway, getting a raise isn’t the only way to increase wages.

  18. 1993 House Buyer says:

    #10….so late 70’s early 80’s we had large mainframes and used something, I think, called “timesharing”….thankfully these new “PC’s” and their distributive processing capability came along and solved that problem!

  19. Ann says:

    Re: Reducing closing costs: I never pay the escrow for property taxes. I pay my own taxes. I’m certainly capable of doing that and I never understood why I would give the bank thousands of dollars to hold onto forever. They’ll try to zing you with a fee for doing this, but if you fight hard enough, they will take the fee off.

  20. HouseWhineWine says:

    17) That’s what I did. Hunkered down and waited for the opportune time to jump ship. My salary did jump so it was a nice move with better hours and better commute. So it’s not all grim news out there.

  21. Ann says:

    3b….Interesting choice of towns!

  22. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ann [19];

    I’m told that its easier to get them to waive escrow on a refi rather than a purchase mortgage.

  23. 3B Buying says:

    #2 grim: it may be coming back, but when you look at where it is coming back from, it does not look all that impressive. Plus in our area according to CS, prices are still falling.

  24. yo says:

    #11 moose
    $7500 closing cost seems high.It has to include mortgage origination fee which is an option.You can take it to lower your rate or take a higher rate without it.I am not sure about property tax escrow if it is included on the closing cost.I always paid my own property tax.I hate giving somebody 6 months of my money plus 3 months before they pay my quarterly tax.

  25. 3B Buying says:

    #5 grim: I would think there would have to be a dramaatic improvement in prices, before the scenario you paint would happen.

  26. Ann says:

    22 I’ve bought a few houses and I’ve never given escrow for PT. If you just keep nagging, I find they will eventually give up.

  27. Brian says:

    Saw this on Bloomberg this morning.

    Home Prices Unlikely to Come ‘Roaring’ Back, Case Says

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-25/home-prices-unlikely-to-come-roaring-back-case-says.html

  28. Ann says:

    Prices are still dropping on a per sf basis in my neighborhood.

    I always wonder about those prices you see in the reports…it really doesn’t mean anything unless you know about the mix of the homes. Per sf is the number that really matters IMO.

  29. Ann says:

    However, that might have changed now, maybe they are enforcing the escrows more now. This was back in the good old days. Still worth asking about or at least lowering the amount you have to put in.

  30. Brian says:

    Audio of Case on “Bloomberg Surveillence”

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vbNa1Htn3z_0.mp3

  31. JJ's B.S says:

    ING is only bank I know that does not take escrow and they have a slightly higher interest rate. The credit unions near me with cheapest rate all take escrow.

    Ann says:
    September 26, 2012 at 8:53 am

    However, that might have changed now, maybe they are enforcing the escrows more now. This was back in the good old days. Still worth asking about or at least lowering the amount you have to put in.

  32. Brian says:

    30-
    Say’s “lack of supply is driving prices up”

    “demand is picking up a little”

    “people aren’t putting their houses on the market”

    “a whole lot of people are fixing up their houses and staying in them”

  33. Ann says:

    I dunno, I’ve never given escrow and this is my third property I’ve bought with various mtg companies. We always ask for it after they give us the interest rate and all that. Then they try to zing us with a fee, and then we fight that and in the end, we’ve always won. But things could be different now.

  34. 3B Buying says:

    #21 Ann Why?I did my homework, and those are what we came up with.

  35. JJ's B.S says:

    Per square foot can be a useless number. Go to places like beach bungalows and it makes me laugh. I can see a 1,600 square foot blown out bungalow home on a 30×60 plot with no parking vs. a 800 square foot home on a 50×80 lot with a driveway and a garage. The banks often focus on square foot in pricing short sales and reos. And it is meaningless. The REO I missed out by beach as my bid was off by 15K sold for 320K. Tiny bungalow 747 square feet. The landvalue of that plot empty was 300K. The house really sold for 20K, yet they price the sale as a high per square foot sale as they divide 320k by 747. Under this crazy methodolgy small homes on large plots have huge price per square foot and large homes on small plots have a tiny price per square foot. The land is what you are paying for. In fact I noticed down by beach and empty 60×80 lot goes for more than a 60×80 lot with a run down estate sale bungalow. In this case the fact the home is there lowers value. In this case it should be negative price per square feet. Price per square foot is an extremely useless metric on imaginary wisteria lane where the desperate housewives live on identical cookie cutter houses on equal plots all built same year and all equally maintained.

    Ann says:
    September 26, 2012 at 8:52 am

    Prices are still dropping on a per sf basis in my neighborhood.

    I always wonder about those prices you see in the reports…it really doesn’t mean anything unless you know about the mix of the homes. Per sf is the number that really matters IMO.

  36. Ann says:

    I think there are people out there looking but they want to pay less than what people can afford to sell for. So people are staying. I think home improvements are going to go through the roof over the next couple of years. People will be trying to make their current homes work for them because they can’t sell. Stay put. Die in place. Not a bad plan really.

    30-
    Say’s “lack of supply is driving prices up”

    “demand is picking up a little”

    “people aren’t putting their houses on the market”

    “a whole lot of people are fixing up their houses and staying in them”

  37. Ann says:

    All the houses in my neighborhood are roughly the same, so price per square foot is meaningful. Even in neighborhoods where the houses vary more, I still see rather stable sf prices, roughly of course. What I don’t get is when they say prices are going up, maybe it just means that people are buying some higher-end houses versus the bottom tier bought by investors and first-time buyers, that kind of thing. I guess the assumption is that the housing mix is constant, but I don’t agree with that assumption.

  38. yo says:

    Confucius say:
    Foolish man gives wife a grand piano
    Wiseman gives wife upright organ

  39. grim says:

    Long term peek at inventory in BC, Actives as of 9/1.

    2004 – 4067 – Normal ?
    2005 – 4363 – Normal ?
    2006 – 6548
    2007 – 6156
    2008 – 6390
    2009 – 6094
    2010 – 6530
    2011 – 6430
    2012 – 4927 – Normal ?

  40. Brian says:

    Ann, in the audio he mentions the home improvement stores like Lowes and Home Depot are doing well. This would seem to support the idea that people are staying, and just fixing up the homes they are in. I did just that last year. My wife and I have decided we really won’t move to another house antime soon. If we find that we need more space as the family grows, we could always put on an addition.

    “I think home improvements are going to go through the roof over the next couple of years.”

  41. grim says:

    I’ve got longer term data on GSMLS, looking at Morris, actives as of 8/31

    2001 – 2608 – Normal
    2002 – 2500 – Normal
    2003 – 2830 – Normal
    2004 – 3104 – Normal (but lifting)
    2005 – 3389 – Normal (but lifting)
    2006 – 5027 – Pop!
    2007 – 4676 – High inventory
    2008 – 4701 – High inventory
    2009 – 4771 – High inventory
    2010 – 4874 – High inventory
    2011 – 4736 – High inventory
    2012 – 3890 – Return to normal?

    Again, the question is, were we really just used to the elevated inventory during the peak of the bubble, and during the decline? Is this just a return to the normal inventory levels? Is inventory really constrained compared to what would be expected normally (not in comparison to the bubble)?

  42. yo says:

    Americans remain divided on the performance of Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman whose response to the economic downturn with successive rounds of monetary easing has been criticized by Republicans.

    Twenty-nine percent of the public hold a favorable view of Bernanke compared with 28 percent who have a negative view. In June, 29 percent held a positive view and 30 percent had a negative view.

    Wealthier and better-educated Americans have a more favorable view of the economy than the rest of the country. College-educated respondents by 52 percent to 30 percent say they’re better off than in January 2009. Those with a high school education or less by 38 percent to 33 percent say they are better rather than worse off than when Obama took office.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-26/americans-feeling-better-than-in-2009-amid-skepticism-on-obama.html

  43. grim says:

    I really should publish and updated set of graphs, I especially liked the inventory pace graph, because it really did pinpoint the inventory transition that marked the top of the bubble (when the entirety of NJ decided to pile on and sell).

    http://njrereport.com/images/jun09_invpace.gif

    Begs the question, especially if we take into account the 2003-ish inventory spike, should this level of inventory (or even less) be considered normal and healthy.

    Was it always this painful? I don’t know, I wasn’t looking for a house in 1999, so I have no context for it.

    And yes, I acknowledge that the nature of the inventory might be different.

  44. 3B Buying says:

    #37 Ann: CS says prices are still going down in the NYC metro area.

  45. chicagofinance says:

    grim…this blog is seven years old this month…….fcuk me! I am so old…..

    grim says:
    September 26, 2012 at 8:06 am
    Yeah I remember our first foray into virtualization, it wasn’t pretty, I guess it was back in like 2007 or so.

  46. joyce says:

    I’m not very familiar with the town of Lyndhurst. If anyone is, can you please help me out? Just curious if there will be parking available at the train station on a random weekday evening, and if need to worry about leaving my car there for a few hours.

    Thanks

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Are “yo” as in “yo wassup?”, or as in “Yoyo Ma”

    yo says:
    September 26, 2012 at 9:10 am
    Confucius say:
    Foolish man gives wife a grand piano
    Wiseman gives wife upright organ

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Thank you for posting…..everyone should listen…I only (badly) paraphrased yesterday……

    Brian says:
    September 26, 2012 at 8:54 am
    Audio of Case on “Bloomberg Surveillence”
    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vbNa1Htn3z_0.mp3

  49. grim says:

    Oh, by the way, NJMLS posted documentation on historical solds back into the 80s. I’d repost them here, but the PDFs are massive (they are scans of the old MLS books).

    I was going through Ridgewood, mid-90s yesterday (playing georesidential anthropologist) Most interesting thing was, really, that the nicest houses weren’t at all cheap back then either. Capes were in the $200s, and there was lots of nice inventory in the low $300s, but the real nice stuff was still in the $500’s and higher. Granted, it all looked much more affordable (probably just because the numbers were smaller), but there was still a vast differential in prices between high and low tier towns.

  50. Juice Box says:

    Grim Is the inventory constrained? Inventory should be through the roof, wouldn’t you think? Based up direct observations here that the inventory in Bergen County for example is mostly overpriced POS. Why is that?

    Without a rise in incomes across the board there will be no sustained housing recovery. We have hit a precipice on the way down and are hanging onto a false belief that there isn’t further to fall. The next stage now unfolds as the vast majority of poor and middle income neighborhoods get shabbier and shabbier as time goes on and people are stuck in place because they cannot sell and cannot take the loss since they have no cash to bring to the table just broken credit. The oldest of the Boomer generation is now 66 and wants out but cannot find a buyer as they retire, they need to cash out of their home and downsize so they can retire to parts yonder. The process of turning the USA into a third world backwater will be complete by 2013 if we continue at the current pace.

  51. Pete says:

    Joyce,

    Parking is plentiful at Lyndhurst. Won’t be a problem finding a spot and your car should be safe. Just be careful there is a smaller lot which requires a parking permit. The larger lot open to all is adjacent to the Shop Rite plaza.

  52. Brian says:

    41 –
    Is it possible that 3b and Gary just aren’t seeing the inventory in their price range?

    The data you posted would seem to contradict their observations and Case’s statements in the audio I posted.

  53. 1993 House Buyer says:

    Was wondering how everyone can afford this…
    Cellphones Are Eating the Family Budget .

    More than half of all U.S. cellphone owners carry a device like the iPhone, a shift that has unsettled household budgets across the country. Government data show people have spent more on phone bills over the past four years, even as they have dialed back on dining out, clothes and entertainment—cutbacks that have been keenly felt in the restaurant, apparel and film industries….

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444083304578018731890309450.html

  54. chicagofinance says:

    Patent retardation……imbeciles on display….

    1993 House Buyer says:
    September 26, 2012 at 9:52 am
    Was wondering how everyone can afford this…
    Cellphones Are Eating the Family Budget .

    More than half of all U.S. cellphone owners carry a device like the iPhone, a shift that has unsettled household budgets across the country. Government data show people have spent more on phone bills over the past four years, even as they have dialed back on dining out, clothes and entertainment—cutbacks that have been keenly felt in the restaurant, apparel and film industries….

  55. chicagofinance says:

    Listen above to Case on Bloomberg….it is toward the beginning, so you only need a few minutes….

    Juice Box says:
    September 26, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Grim Is the inventory constrained? Inventory should be through the roof, wouldn’t you think? Based up direct observations here that the inventory in Bergen County for example is mostly overpriced POS. Why is that?

  56. raging bull jj says:

    Most old folks near me have tons of cash. Why, they have defined pension plans, free medical for life and never tradeded up. So they dont have huge monthly costs.

    One old fart I was talking to was complaining only a little bit about low rates. I was like is it killing you. He goes not really I am still working but not for long. Said every January 1st and July 1st from 1982 he bought 30 year non-callable munis and Treasuries. He said since 2009 it sucks. But when he retires next year at 67 he has a 30 year stream of income flowing in and buying more bonds at lower rates wont be so much an issue. Are we assuming every 70 year old took out debt, never bought long term bonds, anuities, five year cds, savings bonds, I bonds, blue chip dividend paying stocks. In fact they are the most likely to do that. My inlaws have a 7k property taxes, a wood pellet stove, no lawn service and no mortgage on their little cape. They also have two sets of SS, one defined pension, free medical for like and a 401k and an annuity. Neither went to college and neither ever earned a base greater than 40K. Yet they are living breezy easy.

    Juice Box says:
    September 26, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Grim Is the inventory constrained? Inventory should be through the roof, wouldn’t you think? Based up direct observations here that the inventory in Bergen County for example is mostly overpriced POS. Why is that?

    Without a rise in incomes across the board there will be no sustained housing recovery. We have hit a precipice on the way down and are hanging onto a false belief that there isn’t further to fall. The next stage now unfolds as the vast majority of poor and middle income neighborhoods get shabbier and shabbier as time goes on and people are stuck in place because they cannot sell and cannot take the loss since they have no cash to bring to the table just broken credit. The oldest of the Boomer generation is now 66 and wants out but cannot find a buyer as they retire, they need to cash out of their home and downsize so they can retire to parts yonder. The process of turning the USA into a third world backwater will be complete by 2013 if we continue at the current pace.

  57. joyce says:

    Thanks, Pete. It is my understanding that the smaller lot is available for free after a certain hour (7pm?), but it appears tiny like only a dozen spots. Either way, the larger one looks to be only 2 blocks away so I’ll probably go directly there.

    Thanks again

  58. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    New Homes Sales Dip, but Prices Hit 5-Year High

    New U.S. single-family home sales eased in August but held near two-year highs and prices vaulted to their highest level in more than five years, adding to signs of a broadening housing market recovery.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales slipped 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 373,000-unit annual rate. July’s sales pace was revised up to a 374,000-unit pace, the highest level since April 2010, from the previously reported 372,000 units.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales at a 380,000-unit rate last month. Compared to August last year, new home sales were up 27.7 percent.

    Despite the month-on-month dip in sales, the report was consistent with other data that have suggested a turn-around in the housing market after collapsing in 2006 and igniting the 2007-09 recession.

    Home resales surged last month and homebuilder sentiment jumped to a six-year high in September. However, the housing market recovery lacks sufficient strength to take the baton from manufacturing as the main driver of the economic recovery.

  59. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Sales of New U.S. Homes Hover Near a Two-Year High

    Purchases fell in only one of four regions as demand in the South dropped 4.9 percent. Sales jumped 20 percent in the Northeast, rose 1.8 percent in the Midwest and 0.9 percent in the West.

    The drop in the South, where median prices are compared, pared with the surge in the Northeast, where property values tend to be higher, caused the median costs nationally to jump. The median price of all sales last month was $256,900, up 17 percent from August 2011. The 12-month advance was the biggest since December 2004. The 11 percent gain from July was the largest one-month increase in records going back to 1963.

    Sales of new houses were up 28 percent from a year ago, today’s report from the Commerce Department showed

    The supply of homes at the current sales rate held at 4.5 months. There were 141,000 new houses on the market at the end of August, matching July’s record low.

  60. grim says:

    Interesting anecdote or talking his own book?

    “If you have good credit and you’re not upside-down on your home, it’s a great time to buy a house,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. “Folks who have a job and have held onto a job throughout all of the financial crisis and the weak recovery are moving on with their lives.”

  61. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Joyce we used to park on the street in Rutherford eat on Park ave than go into the city when we we lived in BC. Never parked in the lots. Same thing at Lyndhurst station. anything after 6 PM you should be golden.

  62. 3B Buying says:

    #50 Juice: I am not sure when the last time you were in Bergen Co, but the next time you are there, take a ride around and see just how shabby some of these once nice well kept towns are. Many of the signs associated with urban decay are now present in what were once considered nice BC towns. Another thing I am seeing is people putting up notices in Supermarkets looking to rent out rooms in single family houses. Perhaps that is because of the crushing tax burdens.

  63. Juice Box says:

    re: # 56 – JJ – There will be no rinse and repeat of the monetary expansion that occurred over the last 30 years for the locust boomer generation. Defined Pensions are based upon average returns of 8% a year. Are they getting that yield? Answer is they can only get it via leverage, the same leverage that caused 2008 implosion in MBS. Some estimate that perhaps 10 trillion in UST is now levered up, and ready and primed for a repeat of 2008 and MBS leverage.

    When Bernanke pulls the plug on ZIRP in a year or two and starts raising rates the stamped to the exits on the first few basis point increases will be deafening and nobody will be spared.

    JJ do you remember 1994? Care to tell us what you were doing then when a Trillion in Bond wealth evaporated? It will happen overnight this time in the bond market as soon as Bernake starts raising rates because same thing that caused the 2008 crisis is occurring in the bond markets and that is too much LEVERAGE.

    http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1994/10/17/79850/index.htm

  64. 3B Buying says:

    #52 Brian: I am seeing inventory, but nothing great, and some is absolute garbage, but I am looking in a lower price range than gary. One of the towns I am looking at has less than 20 houses for sale in the entire town. One I would have bought, but it has no basement.

  65. joyce says:

    Thanks, Pain.

  66. 3B Buying says:

    #52 Brian: Ironically in the town that I live in now, there is more than enough inventory in my price range to choose from but the taxes are insane, and (getting worse), so makes no sense to stay there.

  67. raging bull jj says:

    In late 1994 and early 1995 I was buying bonds 3-10 year investment grade bonds with both fists for my Moms account, got IBM, Citi, Philip Morris, RJR etc and some good MBS. Mom was rolling five year CDs up till mid 1993 when we stopped buying for a about one year from mid 1993 to mid 1994.

    Also was buying “step-up” bonds and ARM loans. Also was buying low coupon callable bonds below par hoping to get a big cap gain when rates fell back down.

    BTW I laugh at 8% I spit on it and wipe it with my feet. When I was managing Moms account I laid off bonds around mid 1995 and did stocks for the period mid 1995-1999 where I was able to do 40% for four years in a row. I got her balance up 160% in those four years then went back to bonds. I had a life time, well her lifetime average of 20% a year ROI from 1988 to 2004. I myself am around 18% lifetime, 1988 to 2012.

    God 8% annual is childlike, Think about it, stubhub makes 25% on a ticket sale in one day, times that by 365.

    Bring on the high rates. I got too many kicker and callable bonds with a big income stream that I am sitting on huge pre-payment risk. Plus high rates will juice my stock side with inflation. God I love it. I want 1994 and I want it now. Economic events or the Black Swan is where men become men. DId you see me pooping in my pants in late 2008 til early 2009. I lived for it, I loved it. God I love trading events. Lets do it
    Juice Box says:
    September 26, 2012 at 10:22 am
    re: # 56 – JJ – There will be no rinse and repeat of the monetary expansion that occurred over the last 30 years for the locust boomer generation. Defined Pensions are based upon average returns of 8% a year. Are they getting that yield? Answer is they can only get it via leverage, the same leverage that caused 2008 implosion in MBS. Some estimate that perhaps 10 trillion in UST is now levered up, and ready and primed for a repeat of 2008 and MBS leverage.

    When Bernanke pulls the plug on ZIRP in a year or two and starts raising rates the stamped to the exits on the first few basis point increases will be deafening and nobody will be spared.

    JJ do you remember 1994? Care to tell us what you were doing then when a Trillion in Bond wealth evaporated? It will happen overnight this time in the bond market as soon as Bernake starts raising rates because same thing that caused the 2008 crisis is occurring in the bond markets and that is too much LEVERAGE.

  68. Libtard at home says:

    Chi…just saw your comments on why you soured on ‘O’ and I agree with your shallow comment. I was truly turned off by the way he shifted into ghetto voice (ebonics) when he went into the locker room to congratulate the world series winner a few years ago. Yes he’s black, but I never heard him use THAT voice. He really came across as a doofus. As to the vacation thing, can’t remember the last time I didn’t think everyone in DC was on constant vacation. Wait until you see O’s second term! Of course, I could never pull the lever for the man who thought it was OK to attach an animal to the roof rack. There’s something seriously wrong with him and he is the worst panderer I’ve ever seen.

  69. Ernest Money says:

    grim (60)-

    Yeah. All twelve of them.

    “Folks who have a job and have held onto a job throughout all of the financial crisis and the weak recovery are moving on with their lives.”

  70. Ernest Money says:

    One in seven Amerikans is on food stamps. Wake me up when that number starts heading the right way.

  71. Ernest Money says:

    juice (63)-

    Bernank has given up the authority and ability to pull the plug on ZIRP. Instead, it will now be done for us by the hordes of bond vigilantes who will prove to us (very painfully, I might add) that yield must be paid, mf’er.

    Game over. We’re just waiting for the “tilt” display to light.

  72. raging bull jj says:

    I currently do not know a single person who lost their job from 2008-2012. Actually I dont keep in touch with the unemployed as they are a little depressing. But seriously all my friends who got let go all have higher paying jobs today.

    Plus he forgets to mention anyone who kept their job and continue maxing out their 401k in risk on assets from Sept 2008 to Sept 2012 has significantly increased their retirement savings which also inspires confidence.

    Ernest Money says:
    September 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
    grim (60)-

    Yeah. All twelve of them.

    “Folks who have a job and have held onto a job throughout all of the financial crisis and the weak recovery are moving on with their lives.”

  73. Ernest Money says:

    lib (68)-

    The only logical vote is the one with a bullet.

  74. Ernest Money says:

    jj (72)-

    The retail investor left the markets long, long ago. That’s what happens when all the players realize the game is a rigged casino. Where are these hordes of individuals- with self-directed retirement vehicles- who went balls-out frontrunning both HFT algos and the Fed?

  75. Kim says:

    Good morning. Been reading this blog since 2005 and and it prevented us from buying at the peak of the bubble! My husband and I are ready to buy the house we’re renting and based on some discussions with our landlord, he is willing to sell it to us at a good price. Since we won’t be using a real estate agent, where’s the best place to look into getting a loan for first-time home buyers? Thanks in advance for any advice you can give!

  76. Juice Box says:

    JJ – When this one blows most will become poor overnight. This isn’t 1994 there will be no 300 basis point move to cause a trillion in losses over 6 months. It will be more like a 25 basis point move signaled unintentionally by Fed that will cause a 10 trillion dollar stampede to the exits overnight. This won’t be 2008 where we can play mark to market games with overlevered MBS so it will occur much quicker than 2008 since the UST market is the most liquid in the world right?

  77. Ernest Money says:

    kim (75)-

    What’s wrong with the house you’re buying? And, if it’s not the house, what’s wrong with the landlord? Identify who the sucker in the room is before proceeding…and make sure the sucker isn’t you.

    Answer those two questions first.

  78. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    kim welcome and good luck. First Valley funding grim has a guy if you search older posts you may come up with the number. First get comps in the area where the house is located to settle on what everyone can agree is a fair price. Second, still get a home inspection see uber inspector also perform a search. Even though you live in the house there may be underlying issues that you may not be aware of. Finally, get a lawyer to get the contract drawn up, you can use your landlords but would get my own.

  79. Ernest Money says:

    Rest assured, there’s a sucker in every deal these days. Zero-sum game, folks.

  80. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Oh and money’s advice as well : )

  81. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [69];

    Yeah. All twelve of them.

    Funny. That’s exactly what I said about the number of borrowers actually harmed by robo-signing, as compared to the multitudes greater number of deadbeats looking for an excuse for not paying their mortgage.

  82. Ernest Money says:

    Lawyers are a weapon. Don’t pick up the other guy’s weapon, especially when it’s pointing at you.

  83. Kim says:

    Painharz – thank you.

    Ernest Money – the only thing wrong with the house is that it needs to be completely updated. I have been looking at other houses in our town and found one that is a lot like ours but completely updated. We offered him around $80K less than the other house and he is open to discussion. We also live in a town with low taxes. We have no plans to move and would like to leave the house to our child (assuming she will want it!)

  84. Ernest Money says:

    moose (81)-

    That’s glib, but I probably met twelve or so a month when the whole collapse got going.

    You’re on record here as believing that control fraud and forgery- as long as the perpetrators are banks- create no adverse consequence for borrowers, so I at least give you points for being consistent.

  85. Ernest Money says:

    “…the only thing wrong with the house is that it needs to be completely updated.”

    This should end well.

  86. raging bull jj says:

    JB I love people who say it will be different this time. The only thing that is constant are people who say it will be different this time. Are you assuming folks cant manage risk and alpha? Your event would crush people in long term non callable bonds with low coupons or bought at above par or owners of zcoupon bonds.

    Average person, 1/4 stocks, 1/4 bonds, 1/4 RE and the remaing money in cash, commodities, i bonds etc. will they really be crushed. Not really. Plus principal to me is imaginary, Cash flow is issue. Who cares what home is worth or stocks for bonds. Just a chance to buy more cheap and as long as interest and dividends are being paid is great.

    You never even experienced inflation. I have. When I first started work back when I was 18 Annual raises were every six months, prices were rising so quickly no one could go a whole year without a raise. I recall at one job for a few years getting a 8% raise every six months for a few years. Remember our salaries will also be rising.

    Juice Box says:
    September 26, 2012 at 10:49 am
    JJ – When this one blows most will become poor overnight. This isn’t 1994 there will be no 300 basis point move to cause a trillion in losses over 6 months. It will be more like a 25 basis point move signaled unintentionally by Fed that will cause a 10 trillion dollar stampede to the exits overnight. This won’t be 2008 where we can play mark to market games with overlevered MBS so it will occur much quicker than 2008 since the UST market is the most liquid in the world right?

  87. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    “Home prices may not return to peak until 2023”
    “CSCO prices may not return to peak until ____”
    “YHOO prices may not return to peak until ____”

    Both YHOO and CSCO are currently 76% below their 2000 “peaks”.
    Get it?

  88. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [84];

    I’m on record as saying that when someone commits a wrong, they pay damages to the person harmed by that wrong. I have yet to hear what damages were caused to deadbeats living years for free in houses they owed money on.

    But that doesn’t matter anyway, because as we discussed yesterday, the FK settlement money was paid to the states, like the tobacco settlement money, and it was spent as wisely as states always do. Smash and grab job. Tobacco first. Then banks. Medical industry is next.

  89. JJ's B.S says:

    No Experience

    “The current 25-year-old 10 years from now isn’t going to have the right kind of experience in their background” to become the “first-line and second-line managers,” he said. “You need to act quickly to get these young people some job experience.”

    Interesting, they are saying kids who graduated from 2008 to 2011 did not get good jobs and are bumming around in retail and bartending waiting till their break. Even if they land corporate jobs next year when recession ends their skill set will be weak. Come when they are 35 and should be making move to senior management, VP etc. they wont have skill set, networks or years of connections to get the higher up jobs. They may end up getting leapfrogged by the 2013 graduate.

    I have always worked. At the age of 33 I had 15 years of financial services experience since I started my first full time job while working at Barclays bank when I was 18 and had an MBA.

    At age 33 todays kids who did not work during college, then graduated in a weak economy and became a barista or a bartender who finally landed a real job in a bank or broker dealer at 27 most likely would only have six years experience and since companies have cut tuition reimbursement so much most likely no MBA. When they are looking for people to groom for senior management roles, they even though they are 33 will have the experience of a 27 year old.

  90. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [86] JJ – spot on. I started my first “real” job at 17 (paper routes before that) in ’77. I watched minimum wage quickly go from $2.50 to $2.65 to $2.90 to $3.10 to $3.25 to $3.35 per hour and that was in about 3 years time. Now 30 years laters minimum wage is barely double that. Even by ’84, ’85, ’86 engineers who moved up at the average pace at my company were getting “compaction” raises of about $1000 just to keep their salary $1000 above the salary of brand new fresh out of school engineers starting salaries.

    You never even experienced inflation. I have. When I first started work back when I was 18 Annual raises were every six months, prices were rising so quickly no one could go a whole year without a raise. I recall at one job for a few years getting a 8% raise every six months for a few years. Remember our salaries will also be rising.

  91. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Kim complete updating will also probably include electrical and plumbing. it is your buck but tose will add considerable cost. Plus if your husband is not handy in a multitude of things which he may be I would also run. complete reno is no small undertaking

  92. 3B Buying says:

    #89 Hey um JJ? The recession is nto ending next year.

  93. grim says:

    Kim – Did you comp against a closed sale or an active listing? I’m only asking because most folks have a hard time getting access to information once a sale is closed (it disappears from the MLS and many of the sites that rely on MLS syndication).

  94. Kim says:

    The updating is all cosmetic. My husband is very handy and will do a lot of the work himself. The plumbing and electrical are fine (got it checked by experts recently), and the roof was updated 7 years ago. We have been living here for 5 years and the house was built in the mid-80s.

  95. joyce says:

    Keep ignoring any and every reference to criminal acts.

    88.Anon E. Moose says:
    September 26, 2012 at 11:15 am
    Money [84];

    I’m on record as saying that when someone commits a wrong, they pay damages to the person harmed by that wrong. I have yet to hear what damages were caused to deadbeats living years for free in houses they owed money on.

    84.Ernest Money says:
    September 26, 2012 at 11:02 am
    moose (81)-

    That’s glib, but I probably met twelve or so a month when the whole collapse got going.

    You’re on record here as believing that control fraud and forgery- as long as the perpetrators are banks- create no adverse consequence for borrowers, so I at least give you points for being consistent.

  96. Kim says:

    Grim – we got the comp from an active listing. Our house is a 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom bi-level (can hear the groans now from other posters, I know bi-levels are the lowest of the low, but we like it) built in 1987. There aren’t many houses like that in our town, either active or sold, but the closest we found was a 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom updated cape.

  97. joyce says:

    i REALLY wish JJ would post his resume one more time… just once more!

    PLEASE

  98. joyce says:

    JJ: “our incomes will also be rising” (inflation)

    gotta love his jokes

  99. 3B Buying says:

    #96 kim: I actually like bi-levels. I think they offer a lot of house, but at the same time are compact, and easy to care for. I would take a bi-level before a cape any day.

  100. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Yeah I remember our first foray into virtualization, it wasn’t pretty, I guess it was back in like 2007 or so. Our engineering guys proceeded to virtualize everything, massively consolidating servers. Way too optimistic about capacity, and the sizing exercise was done on a napkin. Absolutely no analysis around patterns of utilization across platforms and what overlap existed. I’m on the apps side, and our guys begged and pleaded to be left out of it, but it didn’t happen. Just as you mention, we went through a similar process of devirtualization.
    [10] grim – yes and yes. Fortunately, we did not have to de-virtualize anything and certain (heavy graphics and image processing) servers we did leave physical. Modern Microsoft SQL Server databases, much to my surprise, have worked out just fine on VMWARE. Virtual or physical it’s still important to have good design AND know how to performance tune, maintain, and project future resources required. I’m astounded how some “enterprise” back ends have paid attention to none of the above and worsen matters by an order of magnitude by continuing to do OLTP and OLAP on the same database.

    Ironically, it was around the same time we started to decomission our z9 infrastructure and move off the mainframe (a move that would take more than 5 years). The big joke was that our mainframe group had been doing virtualization for 25 years, and the PC guys only just learned how to do it. I think many of the issues we saw around server virtualization would have been much less painful if the two groups sat down together and discussed why the mainframe platforms were so dependent on job control and schedulers. Turns out those old guys did know a thing or two.

  101. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [100] – buried my comments in the middle instead of putting them up front.

  102. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [88];

    Keep ignoring any and every reference to criminal acts.

    You want to arrest them? Fine them? Fine. Go ahead. That puts more money in the public fisc and takes the pressure off to raise my taxes yet again. Just let me know how big a priority you think that should be among other white collar crimes. John Corzine is still walking around in the Hamptons and funnelling millions to Obama’s reelection campaign. “No crimes were committed,” but billions of MF Global clients’ money got disappeared. Apparerntly its more important to buy off the electorate with a nice show of hammering the banks for how they enforced delinquent mortgage contracts.

    You still haven’t told me what harm a deadbeat mortgagor suffered because the banks played fast and lose with the recordal and assignment documentation.

  103. JJ's B.S says:

    Which one I have several? My favorite latest little project I worked on was to find a way to break the speed of light limitation for high frequency traders. That bottleneck of a 186,000 miles a second is unreasonable. After like ten minutes I pretty much almost had the answer but that is my max attention span. A few more seconds I would of had it. Also working on the Samsung Galaxy 7. So fast it gives you future news today and can show full length movies in 1/1000 of a second.

    joyce says:
    September 26, 2012 at 11:38 am

    i REALLY wish JJ would post his resume one more time… just once more!

    PLEASE

  104. JJ's B.S says:

    They should just make basement apts for deadbeat owners and sell homes to working couples. They could be indentured servants to new owners for next seven years till their debts are paid off. Win Win

  105. JJ's B.S says:

    I have a four level split if you could attic and crawl space could be a six level split.

    3B Buying says:
    September 26, 2012 at 11:44 am

    #96 kim: I actually like bi-levels. I think they offer a lot of house, but at the same time are compact, and easy to care for. I would take a bi-level before a cape any day.

  106. joyce says:

    Moose,
    You live in a fantasy, but not as much as JJ… just making up things as you go along.

    Asking the question, which wasn’t even directed at me, of what harm was caused to the mortgagor is to ignore what I said. When did I say they should get a winfall? To the contrary, all I am advocating is to enforce the criminal laws and to enforce the foreclosure & bankruptcy laws. Is prosecuting someone for fraud and forgery too much? Is having a foreclosure hearing (judicial states) too much? For the second question, my guess (for you) is that yes it is too much. But why? Is it merely because there are SO MANY foreclosures now it is slowing things down? If no fraud was committed, the “deadbeat” as you love to say, would have no leg to stand on in court. So what’s your problem? The mortgage contract states what is to happen if the borrower does not live up to their obligations. Foreclosure. The (appropriate) lender must FOLLOW THE LAW while proceeding with a foreclosure… sorry if this gets your panties in a twist.

    And I’d wager you everything I have to find one post of mine which indicated I do not care (or even car less) about the other millions, billions, and trillion dollar frauds (LIBOR?).

  107. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of the Cloud and Hosting. AT&T DNS took a hit again today and is still down for Business customers. Same issue happend a month ago DDOS atack. So much for the Cloud.

    Imagine when you are trying to hit the sell button and DNS goes down? Who are you gonna call a broker? LOL!

  108. joyce says:

    I’d like to add… that the foreclosing party needs to follow the laws with respect to that, as well as the rest of the laws us mere humans have to follow (fraud, forgery, perjury, etc)

  109. freedy says:

    I’ve also noticed some of the towns in BC are getting shabby looking . Many of the
    downtowns need a do over. Closed stores,shabby signs, windows shaded, sidewalks need work, etc. No problem low crime, taxes high ,so what . Mom and Dad can’t leave

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    Interesting thread today. The Deplumes will do their part: Freezer and a couple of flat panel televisions are in the budget. A generator too—even though my lines are underground, I am on well water and total electric living. If there is a power failure for any appreciable length of time, I ‘m screwed.

    That should move the needle.

    Oh, and I figure all of these purchases will take place in Delaware, just down the road. For some reason, things cost 7% less there.

  111. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [30] Brian – Thanks, that was a great listen.

    Audio of Case on “Bloomberg Surveillence”

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vbNa1Htn3z_0.mp3

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    This is interesting . . .

    http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html

    Over a year ago, I had a similar thought, which was to be a preface element in a book project I am considering. I had advanced the idea of such planning, and felt it was no more radical than natural disaster plans, and many states have those.

    Also interesting is the point that six other states considered plans for their own currencies. States are not allowed to coin money but they can issue fiat. Not sure that by itself really helps in the event of a need to deal with secession, and in fact, it is basically unnecessary. COG planning, border security, and determining and protecting citizenship are all higher priorities.

  113. JJ's B.S says:

    delmoncios in lower manahattan has their own currency and it is older than the US currency and legal as it predates US currency

  114. Brian says:

    107 – juice, do you have a link to a story about that on the internet? We can’t get our ISP to confirm that and we had some trouble today.

  115. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Nom I think it is the lack of a sales tax or something : )

    If you have nompounded properly. You can always put a 1000 gallon LP tank in the backyard shed and have the generator run off of that. To truly off grid, get solar, DC inverters and battery packs in the basement. Send power back when they are running, no interuption when the sun goes down if generator running or stored energy due to power outage. Make sure you have switchable relays installed and capacity to run the electric fence.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    In case you were wondering. . . .

    http://news.yahoo.com/stink-bug-invasion-promises-foul-fall-204016553.html

    I did not notice an unusually high number in NJ (they always seemed to be around but I thought nothing of it) but they are all over outside of this house. Just awful. I thought I had moved to a frigging plague. Then I saw the article.

    BTW, it seems that JJ read the same article because I found this gem in the comments:

    “If u want stink-MUCH WORSE THAN THESE BUGS- smell the crotch of vegas street walkin hooker I naively f..ked last weekend. How can something so young n hot emit a smell so foul n horrendous?”

  117. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [106];

    Moose,
    You live in a fantasy, but not as much as JJ… just making up things as you go along.

    What, exactly, did I make up?

    FOLLOW THE LAW, you say.

    >”There’s no way to rule innocent men. The only power government has is the power to crack down on criminals. When there aren’t enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws.”<

    That aside, you know what robo-signing was about? Some backwards states have 'a law' that only a certain arbitrary level/title of corporate officer has sufficient authority to sign for the corporate entity, for example documents transfering overnship of mortgages. Well, because of the volume, that person would have been doing nothing but signing transfers 24/7 to keep up with demand, to say nothing of their regular duties, or whether it was their career goal to be an autograph machine. So yes, the banks (or their surrogates) hired one or several unskilled office workers, and paid them quite handsomely relative to the value of their input, in order to sign the name of the designated officer. Hence, the signatures didn't match. "Robo-signing"; forgery; FRAUD!

    Meanwhile, the only reason the signatures were needed in the first place is because debtors were seriously in default — and the facts of the default were never disputed.

    So as punishment for the –“Robo-signing”; forgery; FRAUD! — the banks get shaken down for a few hundered mil; spread between the states and a little pittance to the deadbeats — whose real reward is that they are still living in the homes they weren’t paying on, nach.

    What exactly did hammering the banks fix?

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [115] pain,

    This is a rental so I am not going to invest heavily in nompounding it. Just want to be able to have sufficient backup in case of weather trouble.

    BTW, the house on the next lot has some sort of perimeter fencing and a gate but I don’t see any sort of livestock. The landlord’s sister lives there, and the landlord lives across the street (which is 100 yards away). There is a pond on the property and I noticed it was man-made. Landlord tells me it is stocked.

    So it seems I moved into a nompound, just not a very complete one.

  119. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [115] pain,

    FWIW, when I finally do nompound, there will be a very large LP tank or two. I had a discussion with kettle some time back and he advised that it is by far the most stable liquid fuel. Solar is on the planning list as well.

    Except for the stink bugs, I am loving this location thus far. Don’t think my daughter will like being miles from any new friends, but it is working for me 4 days in.

  120. willwork4beer says:

    Moose and yo: Thanks for the input. It’s actually about $1500 less than I originally thought so I’m feeling a little better about it. (Never try to read an oversized PDF on a cell phone).

  121. joyce says:

    someone else’s opinion:

    They’re Still Trying to Spin This – Robosigning “Settlement”
    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=202336

  122. joyce says:

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/12/problems-riddle-moves-to-collect-credit-card-debt/

    The same problems that plagued the foreclosure process — and prompted a multibillion-dollar settlement with big banks — are now emerging in the debt collection practices of credit card companies.

    As they work through a glut of bad loans, companies like American Express, Citigroup and Discover Financial are going to court to recoup their money. But many of the lawsuits rely on erroneous documents, incomplete records and generic testimony from witnesses, according to judges who oversee the cases.

    Lenders, the judges said, are churning out lawsuits without regard for accuracy, and improperly collecting debts from consumers. The concerns echo a recent abuse in the foreclosure system, a practice known as robo-signing in which banks produced similar documents for different homeowners and did not review them.

    “I would say that roughly 90 percent of the credit card lawsuits are flawed and can’t prove the person owes the debt,” said Noach Dear, a civil court judge in Brooklyn, who said he presided over as many as 100 such cases a day.

    -snip-

    Interviews with dozens of state judges, regulators and lawyers, however, indicated that such flaws are increasingly common in credit card suits. In certain instances, lenders are trying to collect money from consumers who have already paid their bills or increasing the size of the debts by adding erroneous fees and interest costs.

    The scope of the lawsuits is vast. Some consumers dispute that they owe money at all. More commonly, borrowers are behind on their payments but contest the size of their debts.

    The problem, according to judges, is that credit card companies are not always following the proper legal procedures, even when they have the right to collect money. Certain cases hinge on mass-produced documents because the lenders do not provide proof of the outstanding debts, like the original contract or payment history.

    At times, lawsuits include falsified credit card statements, produced years after borrowers supposedly fell behind on their bills, according to the judges and others in the industry.

    “This is robo-signing redux,” Peter Holland, a lawyer who runs the Consumer Protection Clinic at the University of Maryland Francis King Carey School of Law.

    Lawsuits against credit card borrowers are flooding the courts, according to the judges. While the amount of bad debt has fallen since the financial crisis, lenders are trying to work through the soured loans and clean up their books. In all, borrowers are behind on $18.7 billion of credit card debt, or roughly 3 percent of the total, according to Equifax and Moody’s Analytics.

    Amid the surge in lawsuits, credit card companies are facing scrutiny. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is investigating JPMorgan Chase after a former employee said that nearly 23,000 delinquent accounts had incorrect balances, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.

    Linda Almonte, a former assistant vice president at JPMorgan, claimed in a whistle-blower complaint that she had been fired after alerting her managers to flaws in the bank’s records.

    The currency office, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, is also broadly looking into the industry’s debt collection efforts, focusing in part on the documents included with lawsuits. A spokeswoman for JPMorgan declined to comment.

  123. joyce says:

    Do I think people should not have to pay off their debt? Of course not. Do I think the debt collectors should be able to break the law in order to collect? Of course not.

    Perhaps, Moose thinks the banks should go into the deadbeats homes and break their legs…

    After all, it is your house!, right Moose?

  124. Ernest Money says:

    anon (88)-

    Are you a deadbeat if you refuse to pay a bank that does not actually hold your note or obtained it through fraudulent means? What if the note was conveyed by an unauthorized party, such as MERS, and there is no way to walk it back to its rightful owner (especially if the rightful owner may be a defunct entity)?

    If you go to sell your house in ten years and find that there is no legitimate party that can release your mortgage or submit a satisfaction letter to a town clerk, has a crime been committed against you?

    In a situation such as the above, will a judge be able to somehow quiet title and allow its passing…and if so, at how much time and money expense to the borrower? Again, is there no crime in that?

    Just saying. Seems to me that just because you can’t outright call something a crime today is a very low standard for defining criminal behavior. Fraud and forgery are crimes, whether or not the consequences accrue in real time.

  125. Juice Box says:

    Brian brush up on your Nerd tools already, you are an embarrassment
    to Nerds everywhere.

    Search for “dns outage” on http://www.twitteruniverse.com/

  126. Ernest Money says:

    My most fervent hope is that when my youngest is of employment age, the financial services racket is well on the way to being shut down.

  127. Ernest Money says:

    moose (102)-

    We may not know for years. A crime is still a crime.

    BTW, not paying your mortgage is not a crime. It is a breach of contract, for which remedies exist for noteholders (er, noteholders who can prove they legitimately own the note). There is also a risk premium baked into the note- and the notes of all the other lenders’ borrowers- as a form of insurance.

    “You still haven’t told me what harm a deadbeat mortgagor suffered because the banks played fast and lose with the recordal and assignment documentation.”

  128. Brian says:

    125 –
    We block that site and twitter (a lot of financial institutions do). No tweeting on the job. We don’t want people wasting time on blogs or tweeting all day.

    Thanks anyway.

  129. Juice Box says:

    And your smartphone does not work?

  130. Brian says:

    129 –
    I don’t have my iphone yet. only blackberry. You can configure the internet traffic on a blackberry using the BES to be routed through the company’s internet filters. So yes, it doesn’t work on my smartphone either.

  131. Ernest Money says:

    brian (128)-

    Yeah. Gotta devote every working hour to supporting some 27 y/o “Balanced” fund manager who’s churning grandma’s money in and out of sham securities, while driving up mgmt fees and tax exposure. Where do I sign up for my 1%/year returns?

    “No tweeting on the job. We don’t want people wasting time on blogs or tweeting all day.”

  132. Juice Box says:

    Brian if you were a real Nerd you would have access to everything. While I was playing
    Mists of Pandaria the whole network went down. Every Nerd on the planet instantly knew that were were dealing with a DDOS attack.

  133. Brian says:

    132 –
    Those guys are not nerds they are dorks. Nerds are much cooler.

  134. Juice Box says:

    No Brian a dork is someone who still plays D&D.

    Watch this little video when your wife lets you on the internet for supervised playtime before bedtime.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmgLOKRl5J0

  135. 3B Buying says:

    #109 freedy: The one thing born and raised Bergen Co. natives feared the most urban blight, a la The Bronx and Paterson (the two places they always refer to when is discussing urban blight), is spreading to Bergen Co.

  136. JJ's B.S says:

    Treasury 10-year notes rose for an eighth day, the longest run of gains since December 2008, as investors sought safety with Spanish debt yields climbing toward levels that prompted other European nations to seek bailouts.

    Yields on the benchmark U.S. securities dropped to a two- week low as gauges of inflation expectations receded from the highs reached after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of debt purchases, or quantitative easing. Investor demand for a haven pushed the yields on the $35 billion in U.S. five-year notes slated to be sold today close to record auction lows.

    “It’s the chaos in Europe,” said David Coard, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Williams Capital Group, a brokerage for institutional investors. “There’s still concern about the global economy. Those things together may have helped to bid Treasuries up. It’s the crisis that won’t go away.”

  137. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [124];

    That the first non-hyperventilating answer to my question that I’ve yet read in years of discussing robo-signing. Thank you.

    I believe that MERS was created to avoid (evade?) recording taxes associated with serial transfers of mortgage interests necessary to securitization. Though substantial in aggregate, I would have thought that is simply a cost of doing business. Wall Street cut corners.

    What benefit is recording? Its a benefit to the lender, not the debtor. It gives constructive notice of the lender’s claim to the land. So what should the punishment to the lenders be? Seems to me if they tried to circumvent the recording taxes, they should lose the benfit to be gained by recording — they get pushed back in line to collect on any FK.

    None of which has anything to do with the fact that the debtor hasn’t paid. Can’t find the party to release the lien? Well who’s been cashing the checks? You mean no payment checks? Well, that’s how this whole mess started, isn’t it?

  138. Brian says:

    134 –
    More like a dork is somebody who even knows what D&D stands for.

  139. Juice Box says:

    re # 135 – 3B – Haughty Bergen county is Urban Blight, I took a drive past the Garden State Plaza Mall on Saturday night around 7 PM and it was packed to the gills and there was lots of jockeying for parking spaces. Who the heck wants to eat dinner there anyway? Really now you are only a few miles from the cultural capital of the world and all you want to do is eat at the Grand Lux Cafe or Chili’s?

  140. joyce says:

    “None of which has anything to do with the fact that the debtor hasn’t paid. Can’t find the party to release the lien? Well who’s been cashing the checks? You mean no payment checks? Well, that’s how this whole mess started, isn’t it?”

    Was this bubble the first time in modern history when a person defaulted on their mortgage? I’m going to go out on a limb and say ‘no’. So what changed this time?

    I’m going to skip ahead and see if you can follow. You’re basically saying that the law-breaking (cutting corners as you put it) is OK as long as it’s never uncovered.

  141. JJ's B.S says:

    Don’t listen to Joyce to much. Suzzane Summers and John Ritter were always the cooler kids.

  142. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Nom great to hear. You will have to try and institute a neighborhood nompound while go all squatter when the feces strikes the rotational air moving device.

    I guess I’ll have to hit you up for the sixer if I am on my way up from an FDA meeting in Washington. Yeah I did not forget and you were right getting out of the house has been problematic with the infants.

    As far as the stinkbugs go i have a gingko tree next to the house so I am the only one serving local cuisine up for the little bastards I felt like I was in Egypt during the 3rd plague last autumn.

  143. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    3b what are you talking about I grew up in urban blight in BC : )

  144. grim says:

    Where is Pretty Boy Floyd when you need him? Maybe he can break into MERS and start burning mortgage notes (and backup tapes).

  145. 3B Buying says:

    #139 Juice: A lot of Bergen Co. people won’t go to GSP any more because of the crime there. As far as restaurants, same thing at Riverside, the restaurants are packed, but very little of that is going into the stores there.

    But as far as the blight, a lot more run down houses in once very nice towns, a lot more graffiti, more break ins etc.

  146. 3B Buying says:

    #143 Pain: It is expanding!!!

  147. JJ's B.S says:

    There are not that many good restaurants in NJ.

  148. Ann says:

    34 3b Oh no, just spread apart, surprised to see Midland Park with the other two.

  149. JJ's B.S says:

    Someone approaching retirement with a $100,000 annual salary who wants to maintain their lifestyle with 75 percent of that will need $50,000 a year from savings and another $25,000 from sources like Social Security. Based on a 4 percent annual withdrawal rate, that means having a formidable $1.25 million in the bank.

    I saw this today, so if average person retiring has 1.25 million in bank why is selling paid off home so important? See the old folks are just fine

  150. Juice Box says:

    re # 145 – 3B “a lot more run down houses in once very nice towns”

    On Saturday I did the tour of Saddle River, HoHoKus, Wash Township and a few other Hautghy burbs. Amazing how some of those McMansion foreclosures are still sitting empty. You would think some baller like JJ would have picked them all up by now.

  151. Ernest Money says:

    joyce (140)-

    Agreed. Moose’s argument breaks down here:

    “Can’t find the party to release the lien? Well who’s been cashing the checks?”

    If the mortgagee obtained the note via fraud- or don’t actually hold the note at all- it can’t release the lien. In a real life situation, that would create quite a mess, should a borrower decide to sell the asset pledged as collateral against the lien.

  152. Ernest Money says:

    MERS is the ultimate symbol of bankster greed. It was set up to avoid recording fees, at the risk of imperiling billions of dollars in revenue streams.

  153. Jill says:

    #150: When did “Wash Township” become a Haughty burb?

  154. grim says:

    Someone approaching retirement with a $100,000 annual salary who wants to maintain their lifestyle with 75 percent of that will need $50,000 a year from savings and another $25,000 from sources like Social Security.

    JJ – C’mon baller. You don’t make sense, someone approaching retirement with $100k annual salary should have no mortgage, no debt, no car payments, no need to buy much of anything big ticket (they probably have it all). Your statement assumes that all of that $100k is spent at the end of the year. Chances are, these retirees are maybe taking a vacation, but largely banking a vast majority of their income. That said, the 75% figure should be on their actual spending/outlays, not their income.

    What, exactly, is a retiree blowing $6,250 a month on? Hookers and Crack? A new Lexus every year?

  155. Ernest Money says:

    juice (150)-

    A shitbox in Saddle River is still a shitbox.

  156. Ann says:

    Re lack of inventory, I think the thing is that sure, the prices still look crazy, but you have to look back and see what they were during the bubble. 500K for a rundown split, ok, that seems nuts, but I remember when we were house hunting, those were going for 700 in some towns. My motto is if you can’t find a house you like in a particular town, you need to find a new town.

  157. Ann says:

    A lot of Bergen County is urban, and is suffering from blight. I grew up in a town in the southern part of BC, it wasn’t great when I grew up there, and now I wouldn’t walk around there after dark.

  158. 3B Buying says:

    #156 Ann: True. The problem is a lot of Bergen Co towns have high taxes and or are in decline.

  159. 3B Buying says:

    #153 Jill: It is getting”haughtier”. Lower taxes than many other towns, good/decent schools, for thwhere ose who care their rankings in the NJ Monthly Best Schools was somewhere in ed by the 50’s ( I believe), little to no rental housing, and surrounded by what are considerded good towns.

  160. 3B Buying says:

    #150 Juice: You would think, and especially since he claims to know so much about BC, and at times appears obsessed with it.

  161. Painhrtz - Vote Obamney! says:

    Jill because it is not Garfield, Lodi, North Arlington, Tenafly, or Hackensack

    I may have forgotten a few but it has been 3 years since I have lived in BC, I’m starting to wipe it all from my memory.

  162. Jill says:

    #157: Yeah, that side of town thinks it’s haughty. Don’t tell the Schlegel Lake Community people, they think THEY’RE the Haughties. Don’t ask me, I live in the low-rent district in the “tree” streets.

    #3b: Obviously the quality of local governance is not taken into account by those ranking towns.

  163. 3B Buying says:

    #148 Ann: Spread out yes, we wanted to give ourselves a big enough geographic area, and with towns with low taxes, that at least appear to be better run than where we will be moving from. The problem with Midland Park, is no inventory, and a little more country/spread out than we are used to. type And a couple of dumpy deliverance looking type areas.

  164. 3B Buying says:

    #163 Jill : Just saw one that closed in the lake area for 420k I believe. That price should raise some eye brows. Never saw the attraction to the lake area. Who needs all the geese poop!!

  165. Jill says:

    Hey, 3b…here’s a new listing on Jackson ($429K) that looks from the photos at least to be in pretty good shape:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3096485940-335-Jackson-Ave-Washington-Township-NJ-07676

    MUCH nicer than the other one you were interested in.

    By the way, the sign is still out on the Beech St. house.

  166. 3B Buying says:

    #166Jill: Thanks. That is much better; will check it out. Though IMO it is not worth 429K, more like 375K.

  167. 3B Buying says:

    #162 That number has grown!!

  168. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [140];

    If the mortgagee obtained the note via fraud- or don’t actually hold the note at all- it can’t release the lien.

    We’re talking about transactions among banks and securitizers via MERS, right? How can there be fraud when all the parties to the transaction were in on it? Who got defrauded? The government got defrauded of its recording tax revenue?

    And just how often are there cases of fraudulent conveyances of mortgage notes? Another 12 to add to the dozen of innocent and paid-in-full homeowners injured by misfired FK?

    Listen, I’m new to mortgage paying gig, but I’m a quick study. My mortgage broker sold the note before the ink was dry (as disclosed and expected). I got a letter from them and from the purchaser/servicer with pertinent details. I get a statement every month from the servicer with the balance outstanding, payments made, etc.

    Now, if I was in the mood to stiff my lender AND stick my thumb in their eye, I might ‘lose’ all that paperwork and throw up the “Produce the Note, M-Fer!” routine. But if the borrower is acting in good faith, they know exactly who holds the note, or at least who services the note, and how much is owed at all times.

    The only reason I can see that this breaks down is where you want to get into short sales — who has the authority to release the lien >FOR LESS THAN WHAT IS OWED<? Well, as I see it, no one has a right to a short sale, so I'm not that sympathetic to difficulties obtaining one.

  169. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [140];

    I’m going to skip ahead and see if you can follow. You’re basically saying…

    And you say I’m the one making sh!t up (which you still didn’t cite to an example of).

    You can argue with your straw men all day if you like, Dorothy. Maybe go see the Wizard?

  170. 3B Buying says:

    Spanish military threatens coup over possible Catalan secession. Where is Franco?

    http://richardbrenneman.wordpress.com/2012/09/22/spanish-military-threatens-coup-over-catalonia/

  171. Anon E. Moose says:

    3B [172];

    And more importantly, will they honor outstanding tickets to Barca home games?

  172. raging bull jj says:

    Retired folks with kids have tons of expenses. Weddings, grandkids, bapitisms,

  173. freedy says:

    Is Westwood safe after 9pm?

  174. chicagofinance says:

    You can skip voting for President. NJ’s 14 electoral votes are a mortal lock for the Obamunist. All that matters is a vote for Kyrillos.

    Libtard at home says:
    September 26, 2012 at 10:33 am
    Of course, I could never pull the lever for the man who thought it was OK to attach an animal to the roof rack. There’s something seriously wrong with him and he is the worst panderer I’ve ever seen.

  175. grim says:

    335 Jackson just blew the other listings on the road out of the water, nice price on that one.

  176. Ernest Money says:

    moose (169)-

    In what law school did they teach you that conspiracy/collusion among several parties committing fraud is OK? And yes, they did defraud municipal entities that were entitled to recording fees. Also, MERS is not- and never has been- an entity that was authorized to be a buyer or seller of mortgage notes. Any mortgage note that lists MERS in its chain of title is tainted, and whoever owns such a note now is probably not its legal holder.

    “How can there be fraud when all the parties to the transaction were in on it?”

  177. grim says:

    Beech went UC on 8/16, estimated close is 10/1.

  178. Ernest Money says:

    To be more specific, MERS was created to act as a conduit for mortgages (mostly subprime sludge) to be aggregated into securitized trusts. There are reams of literature out there on how Tangelo, Long Beach and their ilk misused MERS, and I believe there was a recent court case in Mass. that undid a bunch of illegal MERS conveyances…although I’ll let the lawyers on the board speak to the details.

  179. grim says:

    #166Jill: Thanks. That is much better; will check it out. Though IMO it is not worth 429K, more like 375K.

    Too low, looking at recent comps, 417 Coolidge sold for $380k, but it’s only around 1200 square feet (335 is 2091sq). You got 18 Fairfield that went off at $420k, and that’s sitting on the parkway. You’ve got 205 Sussex on the other side of the lake, and that went off for $435k. 236 West is UC, and caught a bid with an ask of $495k. That was updated, but also sitting on the parkway.

    Even Beech at $380k was more expensive on a dollar per square foot ratio, as it was only clocking in at 1500.

  180. Ernest Money says:

    Fcuk it all. The banksters own the whole goddam gubmint, anyway. They can do what they please.

  181. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [177];

    You threw fraudulent conveyance out there — all I want to know is who got defrauded? The seller of the note or the buyer? How? By running the conveyance through MERS? They’re both in on the MERS scheme and down with it, right? I’ve read the MERS language in the note itself, and the borrower is most certainly agreeing to MERS involvement, even if they don’t understand what it means or what goes on behind the curtain.

    I don’t understand how there can be fraud where everything is in black and white in the docs.

    Its like all these Obamunists who scream about Romney hiding money in the Caymans and Switzerland. They only reason anyone knows about those offshore accounts is because Romney disclosed them to the IRS on his tax returns, then released those returns to the public. Real bangup job of ‘hiding’ things, huh? And they say Bush had a tortured relationship with the English language…

  182. JJ's B.S says:

    doing reviews and said staff needs to take an expanded roll. I think I ment role, I hate busy work on jewish holidays.

  183. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [182];

    And even if the seller of the notes got defrauded of their notes somehow, or the buyer of the notes got defrauded because they were buying a pig in a poke — what does any of that have to do with the borrower not paying?

  184. freedy says:

    http://www.nj.com/morris/index.ssf/2012/09/dover_public_safety_director_i.html#incart_river_default

    So heres a guy that going to commute 150 miles a day to be the Public Safety director in Dover and they throw in a Car to boot. Something does not add up . Oh,he’s a retired State tropper . What happens when he’s needed in an emergency on a cold winter night. Perhaps a helicopter

  185. 3B Buying says:

    #180 grim: You obviously know better than me, having access to the information. I just think 429K is high. That being said, I may have to increase what Iam willing to pay. I will make that decesion shortly,but keep in mind I still believe prices will continue to fall, so there is a limit as to how much I will increase what I am willing to spend.

  186. JJ's B.S says:

    Lance Easley, the National Football League referee at the center of a touchdown call criticized by President Barack Obama and others, is a vice president of small business banking at Bank of America Corp. in California.

    Easley’s LinkedIn page says he has worked at the bank since June 2011, and was a business banking specialist at Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) for almost three years prior to that.

  187. 3B Buying says:

    #178 grim If that is the Ranch, that went UC before 8/16, maybe it fell through and then went back UC, but Jill is right that listing has had the UC sign out front since July.

  188. grim says:

    No fall through. It only hit the market on July 13th. It went into attorney review on 8/7, 26 days in.

  189. Ann says:

    How is that house on Jackson 2000 sf? It doesn’t even have the 4th bedroom on top. Are they counting the basement in that square footage? I think that price seems a little bit high too. Friend bought something similar in that area back in 2006 for 475 but it had a shiny kitchen that was bumped out a bit.

  190. Ernest Money says:

    moose (182)-

    You picked a particularly appropriate day to go all Pharisee here. The defrauded party was any town clerk who didn’t get paid recording fees, because the buyers and sellers of mortgages did a “wink-wink”, and used an entity of their own creation (MERS) to engage in an unauthorized activity with the intention of avoiding payment of recording fees.

    Secondly, any mortgagors whose names are on such notes have been damaged, as their ownership status and ability to legally convey the underlying collateral has been clouded and jeopardized.

    Thirdly, ever taxpayer in Amerika has been damaged, since we now stand as de facto guarantor-of-last-resort of the gambling debts of the insolvent banks who all got together and cooked up the MERS doomsday machine to begin with.

    I’d probably also say the whole mess is an affront to God, but he seems to love banksters and hate poor people.

  191. Ernest Money says:

    Don’t hate the sausage; hate the sausage grinder.

  192. Ernest Money says:

    Ugh. Sausage is trayf.

  193. grim says:

    I just think 429K is high.

    We’re still talking about ask prices now, before negotiation. Sale/List ratio is running around 92% for 3/4br SFH in Wash. I do think it can close above the $392k the ratio would imply. At this point it’s one of the best priced “turnkey” houses in town.

    1166 Wash looks nice, but main road. 9 Spice and 770 Ridgewood are both horror shows. 416 Coolidge looks like it needs everything, and at $379k is pricey for 1500 square feet. 316 Calvin is short, and has been on the market 2 years now.

  194. grim says:

    How is that house on Jackson 2000 sf? It doesn’t even have the 4th bedroom on top. Are they counting the basement in that square footage?

    Ah, could be, I just looked at the figures in the tax records.

  195. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [191];

    OK,

    1) Banks stiffed the governement on recording fees, thereby stiffing ‘we the people’. Not ‘fraudulent conveyance’ in its pure sense, but some county clerks somewhere got ‘defrauded’ of money that they thought they had coming to them.

    2) Is this really a problem in a transaction where the old note is getting paid as agreed (or at least, in full)? I’m not aware that having MERS in the chain of title is a show stopper on any deal. Title insurance is still being written, and at prevailing rates, right?

    3) I’m not about the hang FedGov’s mis-management and ongoing open checkbook bailout of Fonnie and Fraudie around the bankster’s necks. Like you said — hate the game, not the player.

  196. grim says:

    I take it all back, it backs a parking lot.

  197. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [196];

    1a) So anyway, the banks didn’t pay the freight on teh recording system. So they lose the right to claim the benefit of the recordal. What is so hard about that? And most of all…

    Z) How the hell does any of this supposedly forgive the borrower of paying on the note? All of this is sideshow smoke and mirrors. The essence of the transaction is thousands of years old: money is lent today to be paid back later, plus interest.

  198. grim says:

    198 – I’m with you, none of this is relevant to the buyers obligation to pay or the lien holders right to foreclose.

    As far as I know (and it’s not far), the act of “recording” is not a necessary and sufficient condition for the note and obligation to exist. The “recording” of the lien does not make it so, it’s the execution of the note that makes it so.

    Not arguing that MERS was not a way of skirting reporting fees and taxes.

  199. 3B Buying says:

    #190 grim: Sorry it seemed longer some how.

  200. grim says:

    I tried using the garage door width to estimate the footprint, but gave up.

  201. 3B Buying says:

    #194 grim: It is frustrating this whole searching process. I think (in a perfect world or at least, my version of it), that 350K for modest house should not be so difficult. If I have to pay more, than that, may be the case. But I am not paying 400k or more;even If I have to love in a VW Passat!!!

  202. JJ's B.S says:

    What is your definition of a “modest house”

    3B Buying says:
    September 26, 2012 at 5:06 pm

    #194 grim: It is frustrating this whole searching process. I think (in a perfect world or at least, my version of it), that 350K for modest house should not be so difficult. If I have to pay more, than that, may be the case. But I am not paying 400k or more;even If I have to love in a VW Passat!!!

  203. 3B Buying says:

    #203 3 beds 1.5/2 baths LR/DR, basement, one car garage.

  204. Ernest Money says:

    moose (196)-

    1. I don’t think I wrote the words “fraudulent” and “conveyance” together at any point in this thread. Thanks for trying to pin that on me, though. Does it work better for you if I say the banksters CHEATED the clerks out of recording fees?

    2. Yes, this is a problem. We don’t know whether “MERS” on the note means there is really a problem. We’re going to find out how deep and pervasive this risk may be in the future. It seems to me that there’s an eensy problem when Fred & Ethel find out fifteen years from now that they’ve made six figures of so worth of mortgage payments to an entity that doesn’t legally own their note.

    3. I’d be inclined to agree with that statement, except in this case, banksters are the game, the playa and the referee. Off with their heads.

    As to #198, you seem to digress to the “deadbeat mortgagor/what does this matter” meme whenever the light shines too long and bright on the ongoing criminality of banksters. The delinquent payment status of the mortgagor cannot be claimed as a mitigating factor in the crimes of the lender. A crime is a crime, whether or not one of the possible aggrieved parties is current in his payments (albeit to an entity that may not be entitled to receive any payments). The issue I’ve taken up has never been the forgiveness of the borrower to pay; the issue is, what happens when the holder of a mortgage note and beneficiary of its revenue streams turns out not to be the owner…or has obtained ownership of the note through dishonest means?

  205. Ernest Money says:

    US Bank vs Ibanez (I think) is the case where it was ruled MERS cannot be a buyer and seller of notes. I’ll leave any comment/elaboration to the lawyers here.

  206. grim says:

    Looking at the historical solds book for Wash, circa 1997. “Modest” was going for $200-250k. We’re talking 15 years ago. ($250k in 97 is approximately $350k in 2012).

    249 Colonial – $240k
    650 Calvin – $243k
    474 Jackson – $245k
    755 Koch Peak – $245k
    315 Calvin – $245k
    231 Devon – $245k
    240 Beech – $247k
    272 West – $247k
    628 Hoover – $248k
    Funny, I see 993 East Glen (didn’t that just go UC) – $258k
    268 West – $258k
    733 Koch Peak (isn’t this on the market?) – $257k
    255 West – $255k
    712 Beech – $264k
    13 Darlene – $264k
    507 Chestnut – $265k
    713 Hillcrest – $265k
    703 Kennedy – $267k
    377 Hickory – $267k
    541 Ridgewood – $275k ($394k in 2012)
    528 Calvin – $275k
    749 Wayne – $280k
    651 Kennedy – $285k
    534 Howard – $287k
    7 Stratford – $290k
    861 Robinwood – $294k
    14 Hampshire – $303k ($434k in 2012)
    24 Hampshire – $320k
    708 Kennedy – $325k
    705 Wearimus – $330k
    906 Sycamore – $330k
    830 Robinwood – $335k
    214 Sussex – $340k
    591 Jackson – $347k
    732 Pine Lake – $355k ($510k in 2012)
    34 Jacob – $362k
    52 Hampshire – $380k
    709 Wearimus – $388k
    107 Douglas – $394k (these are not mansions)
    730 Amherst – $395k
    57 Horizon – $404k – ($580k in 2012)
    11 Johnson – $437k
    83 Horison – $440k ($632k in 2012)

  207. 3B Buying says:

    #207 grim: Are these current listings/solds that you posted?

  208. Ernest Money says:

    I am also curious as to what part of the Robosigning settlement has created a mechanism by which forged signatures can now be viewed as legitimate.

  209. Ernest Money says:

    Or, do offending banks get a do-over to create a fraudulent chain of title in a more palatable manner?

  210. grim says:

    The figures in () are the historical sales adjusted for inflation to 2012 dollars. Those are the bulk of the home sales in washington twp in 1997. I didn’t include the small ranches and capes.

  211. joyce says:

    Ok look, you want an example of your making sh*t up? The fact that you keep asking what mortgage/foreclosure fraud has to do with people defaulting on their payments… as if I have not acknowledged that, as if I have not said yes by all means foreclose.
    My point that you do not care about these frauds is self-evident in that you always gloss over these FACTS and just spout again and again ‘they didn’t pay.’ Care to guess if anyone else here would disagree with that? Calling that a strawman is childish.

    170.Anon E. Moose says:
    September 26, 2012 at 2:57 pm
    Joyce [140];

    I’m going to skip ahead and see if you can follow. You’re basically saying…

    And you say I’m the one making sh!t up (which you still didn’t cite to an example of).

    You can argue with your straw men all day if you like, Dorothy. Maybe go see the Wizard?

  212. grim says:

    The person who purchased 24 Hampshire above, made out like a bandit (1997 really was a fantastic time to jump in, if only everyone knew about the rocket ship).

    Purchased for $320k in 1997, sold in 2004 for $690k. 7 years, $335k profit.

  213. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [203];

    2) … there’s an eensy problem when Fred & Ethel find out fifteen years from now that they’ve made six figures of so worth of mortgage payments to an entity that doesn’t legally own their note.

    But this is what I’ve been saying. All of that is transparent to the borrower. They dutifully made payments for 15 years to the servicer they were told to make payments to. Those payments were applied against a mortgage that is identical in all respects to the one they took out. Fred and Ethel are going to get title hands down, and probably attorney fees. The servicer and the trustee and any other claimant can fight over the money amongst themselves. If MERS screwed up the transfer and the servicer paid the wrong trustee, that’s between them. If whoever the note owner is agreed, accepted, appointed, acquensed in the servicer who screwed up, they can sue the servicer for Fing up, but with regard to a third party they have to live with what their agent did. It cannot flow back to a borrower WHO PAID ON TIME.

    Which is what I’ve been saying — the problem is the defaults. I have yet to see, hear or read about this problem biting ANY current paying debtor, much less a number of them that rivals the number of deadbeats. So we need to write workable rules for the vast majority, not for the odd duck.

  214. joyce says:

    214,
    Lender(s) through MERS, defraud county govt, and buyer pays 360 monthly mortgage payments in full on-time. Everyone can go home now, nothing to see here. Right, moose? The problem is the default which causes the crime to come to light. Now I get why it is the default, and only the default, that is the CAUSE of this.

  215. grim says:

    So what is the appropriate retribution for this?

    Disband MERS as illegal?

    Back payments of recording fees to all county governments?

    A fall-on-the-sword settlement of a few hundred million?

  216. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [142] pain,

    Keep me posted. Nomdeplumenj@gmail.com

  217. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [212];

    The strawman is you putting words in my mouth (“You’re basically saying…”). But lets move on.

    OK, great. We all agree that deadbeats who don’t pay should get kicked out of the house that they don’t really own.

    Except all this — ‘robo-signing’, Forgery! FRAUD! — is trotted out by those deadbeats to stop the ordinary business of what everyone knew was supposed to happen if they stopped paying on the note.

    Its a matter of priorities — Is it more important that the debtor hasn’t paid (FK goes forward); or is it more important that the creditor played monkey business with the note (FK stops). You clearly think the latter is more important (Crimes are happening! Won’t sombody please think about the Children!). I happen to think the former is more important, for a host of reasons that unfortunately I do not have the time now to go into.

  218. grim says:

    Hold on here, are we talking about “MERS” as the problem, or “Robosigning”.

    So, say MERS is disbanded. What we’ll see is the establishment of SBRI (Speedy Bulk Recording Inc), which will follow the appropriate recording processes, however, they’ll employ banks of robosigners to process massive pages of recording documents.

    Is this better?

    I’d hate to defend MERS, but realize that it was put together to come up with a better way to record. Have any of you actually spend some time at the county and looked up old records? You really think boxes of paper rotting on racks is any better? It’s all a massive waste of time, space, and money.

  219. joyce says:

    Grim,
    What is the penatly for stealing? theft? grand larceny? It is my understanding that each time the mortgage was sold/re-assigned, it would have to re-recorded. This is not a small number considering how many times they were sliced and diced (I’m not saying its in trillions or anything). Let’s get some forensic accountants to come up with a number for the each institution; I’ll settle for an estimate. They can pay that back plus interest. Then the individuals who evaded the laws and the inviduals who instructed those to evade the laws can stand trial. If the number that is owed is truly enormous, my guess is the company officers were signing off on their financials when they were nowhere near accurate (huge liability not disclosed), they can face prosecution too under SOX.

  220. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [216];

    A fall-on-the-sword settlement of a few hundred million?

    I thought BoA did that already.

  221. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [220];

    penatly for stealing? theft? grand larceny?

    Stealing by not paying recording fees? At worst its akin to tax evasion. I see it more like tax avoidance. Anyway, people and businesses settle with the IRS all the time where there are disputes about money owed due to uncertain areas of the tax code. Tax court is this wierd little world where the federal government is like a civil litigant. Nom is almost certainly far more knowledgable about it than I am.

    If it means that foreclosure go through, and get resold to end users, it will be a good outcome.

  222. grim says:

    http://www.morriscountyclerk.org/html/records/schedule_fees.asp

    Cancellation of mortgage $20 + Rerecording of morgage $20 = $40

    Let’s just say 80,000 sales a year for NJ, assume each needs to be transfered once.

    Approximately $3.2m statewide per year, let’s go back 10 years, $32 million owed?

    Even if we are talking about 2 re-records per, that’s $64 million over the past 10 years for NJ?

  223. grim says:

    Although I’d argue that without MERS, going forward, expect to see a new line or two on your HUD for additional documentation and recording fees, so ultimately, the borrower would get the screws.

  224. joyce says:

    219
    Grim,
    The government for I dont even know how long was responsible for tracking land ownership (this includes liens against the property). If you want that to change, that’s fine. As much as I lean libertarian, I am not an anarchist. I hate to phrase it like this, but who else besides the government should be responsible for this?

    And no robosigning is still a problem. Moose asked who was defrauded by MERS. The answer to that question was The People when talking about it upfront. E Money gave a few examples about down the road.
    Regardless of who does it in a company, if a person swears what they have signed is true and accurate and attempts to introduce it into evidence in court, are we also saying perjury is another crime to ignore? How about the instances of doctoring the documentation (forgery)?

    218
    Moose,
    You are pathetic. E Money said earlier. The contract between a lender and a borrower is just that, a contract. A civil matter. F*cking around with the legal proceedings is a CRIMINAL matter. You sure my priorities are the ones that are mest up?
    If I am ripped off by the next Jon Corzine, will you stand in front of the court house during my trial and protest my innocence if I track the person down, rob them and light their house on fire?

  225. joyce says:

    222,
    Moose,

    How often, for how much and for how long were they WILLFULLY not paying? Just think of what the IRS would do to a non-connected individual? Are they even paying now? You said they are still using MERS. I wonder if they paid when they resold your note.

  226. joyce says:

    Grim,
    You can guess much better than I of what the number would be… but off the top of my head, does your guess include refinancing, 2nd mortgages, HELOC’s etc.?

  227. joyce says:

    And better the borrower than every taxpayer.

  228. 3b buying so what who cares says:

    #211 grim. Thanks for the information. Then if I am looking at this correctly. 350k should be doable. Just very little to choose from out there. The one on beech I understand went uc at 360k should have been ready for that one but was out of town.

  229. Ernest Money says:

    I’d say the monstrous, all-enveloping Robosigning settlement indicates the need for just that. There are gazillions of tainted notes out there, and all the major banks are implicated in the commission of numerous crimes that led to the current mess.

    “So we need to write workable rules for the vast majority, not for the odd duck.”

  230. grim says:

    The government for I dont even know how long was responsible for tracking land ownership (this includes liens against the property). If you want that to change, that’s fine. As much as I lean libertarian, I am not an anarchist. I hate to phrase it like this, but who else besides the government should be responsible for this?

    My issue isn’t with who runs this, my issue is with the archaic inefficiency with which it is run. It is this same archaic inefficiency that requires the existence of title insurance (again, the borrower gets screwed). I agree, it needs to be government run, but does it need to exist in N iterations at the county level? Couldn’t it exist at the state level? State rights issues aside, couldn’t this just exist nationally?

  231. Juice box says:

    MERS and MBS are all water under the bridge. NY AG Schinderman folded in May and settled for a paltry 25 million. His securitization task force has also done nada.

    Watch the left hand and the right hand in reaching into your pocket friends, it is over.

  232. joyce says:

    231,
    I would love for the land deed system to be reliable enough as to not require insurance. It COULD be run at any level, emphasizing the word “could” as strongly as possible.

  233. Fast Eddie says:

    And in the end, still no f*cking pony for anyone! Disgraziato!!

  234. grim says:

    Holy crap I just looked at my own mortgage, $183 in recording fees.

    $80 NJ Preservation
    $100 Recording Fees
    $3 NJ Homelessness Trust

  235. grim says:

    Another $43 on the cancelation when I refi’ed

    And a second $183 on the new mortgage.

    (No transfers to MERS)

  236. Ernest Money says:

    This is what happens when you get a country that’s owned by banksters, corporations and organized crime.

  237. Ernest Money says:

    Oops. Banksters, corporations and organized crime are redundant terms.

  238. Ernest Money says:

    I love the pre-diabetic gristle bags that actually record these instruments at most courthouses. They do the shuffle better than Ickey.

  239. grim says:

    Where the hell was I when this happened???

    New Jersey’s County Homelessness Trust Fund Act, P.L. 2009, c. 123, became law in September 2009. The Act permits counties to establish a Homelessness Trust Fund for the purpose of moving the homeless and formerly homeless into permanent affordable housing. In order to fund this initiative, those counties that establish such a fund may add a $3 surcharge to recording fees. The start dates for the Homelessness Trust Fund surcharge of $3.00 are:
    •Bergen effective February 1, 2010
    •Hudson effective March 1, 2010
    •Mercer effective July 1, 2010
    •Middlesex effective January 1, 2010
    •Passaic effective January 1, 2010
    •Somerset effective June 1, 2010
    •Union effective May 1, 2010

  240. grim says:

    Now I understand why the archaic recording system exists, it’s the perfect mechanism by which to create stealth taxes. NJ Preservation Trust, Homelessness, Real Estate Transfer Tax, Millionaires Tax, etc.

  241. Juice Box says:

    Grim lots of legislation in the pipline for more fees too, most won’t pass
    But the legislators will keep trying.

  242. grim says:

    Geez, look at my deed…

    County Realty Tax – $435.00
    NJ Preservation Account – $30.00
    Recording Fees – $50.00
    State Realty Tax – $783.00
    NJAHTF – $427.50
    Homelessness Trust Fund – $3.00
    Total Paid – $1,728.50

  243. joyce says:

    google says…
    NJ Maternal Health Task Force

  244. joyce says:

    or Mental Health Task Force

    or Muncipal Housing Trust Fund

    hmmm i wonder which is the most obvious

  245. grim says:

    I zoomed in and it looked more like an A, so I changed it, but still no idea, ultimately they are all part of the realty transfer taxes.

  246. grim says:

    NJ Preservation Account – $30.00
    Recording Fees – $50.00

    And here I was feeling good, thinking that I contributed $30 towards the preservation of open space.

    Turns out that $30 is to store and preserve the paper (you’d think that was what the $50 was for).

    Which really means the recording fee is $80.

    Again, archaic.

  247. Juice Box says:

    Grim – NJDMV charges $2 to renew registration online. It is about filling the coffers and nothing more.

  248. Ernest Money says:

    Think this won’t all end in gunfire and revolt? Not a chance in hell it won’t.

  249. Ernest Money says:

    I find the thought of blowing up a DMV office quite appealing.

  250. Juice Box says:

    3b – what is wrong with this one?

    Check out this 6 bd, 3.0 ba, 3,300 sqft home at 9 Spice Dr that I found on Zillow: http://u.zillow.com/p2Zf4k

  251. grim says:

    252 – It’s not for sale. History shows a couple of failed attempts to putting a deal together.

    Could have something to do with that $614,750 mortgage from back in 2007. Lis Pendens filed in July.

    595 days on market

  252. Juice Box says:

    Grim please clarify it is listed by a few realtors on their websites besides zillow.

  253. grim says:

    Oh it’s listed and active, no doubt about that.

    But can it be purchased?

    Two failed contracts, an outstanding loan of $600k, and 500+ days on market tells me the bank hasn’t been willing to let the borrower walk.

  254. Juice Box says:

    How about you coin these listings then. “Zombie Forclosure” seems fitting eh? Alive but dead at the same time!

  255. Ernest Money says:

    grim (216)-

    Well, as of today, not one single bankster has been convicted of anything.

    “So what is the appropriate retribution for this?”

  256. Shore Guy says:

    Perhaps it is just my age but, I feel less concerned with owning additional real estate than I did even two years ago. The idea of renting part-year retirement places is far more attractive to me now than not that long ago.

  257. Ernest Money says:

    Don’t forget plenty of guns to go with those places, shore.

  258. Shore Guy says:

    What three things did Warren Zevon ask for:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgyMUChgcbU&feature=related

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