August contracts down nationally, but up in the Northeast

From the NAR:

Pending Home Sales Decline in August

After reaching a two-year peak, pending home sales fell in August but are at elevated levels compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.6 percent to 99.2 in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July but is 10.7 percent above August 2011 when it was 89.6. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

Contract activity in July 2012 was at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

“The index shows 16 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, and that has translated into a higher number of closed sales. Year-to-date existing-home sales are 9 percent above the same period last year, but sales were relatively flat from 2008 through 2011,” Yun added.

Existing-home sales this year are expected to rise 9 percent to 4.64 million, and gain another 8 percent in 2013 to nearly 5.02 million. With generally balanced inventory conditions in many areas, the median existing-home price is projected to rise about 5 percent in both 2012 and 2013.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 0.9 percent to 78.2 in August and is 19.9 percent above August 2011. In the Midwest the index declined 2.6 percent to 95.0 in August but is also 19.9 percent higher than a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.1 percent to an index of 110.4 in August but are 13.2 percent above August 2011. With broad inventory shortages in the West, the index fell 7.2 percent in August to 102.5 and is 4.2 percent below a year ago.

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139 Responses to August contracts down nationally, but up in the Northeast

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Is it better to live on Park Boulevard or Park Lane?

    It seems home buyers are picky when choosing their next residence and having the right street name can help.

    A new survey by real estate website Trulia suggests subtle differences in street names – such as whether a street name ends in the word “Lane” or “Park” – can make a big difference in the asking price.

    To prove it, Trulia analyzed the median asking price per square foot on different types of address suffixes.

    As it turns out, homes with street addresses that included the words Boulevard, Place and Road have higher prices on average when compared to those ending in Avenue, Drive or Street.

    In fact, if you want a home with more price value, the survey suggests buying a property with the word Boulevard in the street address is your best bet.

    Addresses with the lowest prices were those with the suffixes Avenue, Drive and Street. Street is apparently not a popular term. About 19% of the surveyed loans had addresses ending in street, and those properties sold for about $86 per square foot.

  2. grim says:

    Repost of the North Jersey contracts data:

    (Source GSMLS, except Bergen which is NJMLS)

    Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
    ——————————-

    Bergen County
    August 2011 – 589
    August 2012 – 707 (Up 20% YOY)

    Essex County
    August 2011 – 258
    August 2012 – 348 (Up 34.9% YOY)

    Hunterdon County
    August 2011 – 92
    August 2012 – 124 (Up 34.8% YOY)

    Morris County
    August 2011 – 333
    August 2012 – 475 (Up 42.6% YOY)

    Passaic County
    August 2011 – 145
    August 2012 – 260 (Up 79.3% YOY)

    Somerset County
    August 2011 – 220
    August 2012 – 322 (Up 46.4% YOY)

    Sussex County
    August 2011 – 106
    August 2012 – 150 (Up 41.5% YOY)

    Union County
    August 2011 – 245
    August 2012 – 305 (Up 24.5% YOY)

    Warren County
    August 2011 – 80
    August 2012 – 107 (Up 33.8% YOY)

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Shiller Data Questions Housing Revival Power: Cutting Research

    Don’t bet the house on a robust revival of the U.S. property market, says the Yale University professor who predicted the bursting of the dot-com and subprime-mortgage bubbles.

    There is no “unambiguous” sign of a strong recovery in the market, Robert Shiller and fellow economists Karl Case and Anne Thompson say in a paper published this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The study seeks to shed light on the role buyer expectations play in house prices, an angle the authors say has been ignored in analyzing the housing slump.

    The results of their work, entitled “What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets,” are based on the responses of almost 5,000 recent homebuyers in four cities to regular mail surveys over the past 25 years.

    The answers to the latest questionnaire indicate that while perceptions of short-term price direction have turned positive, long-term expectations continue to weaken.

    The upshot for Shiller and his colleagues is that while “a recovery may be plausible, and home prices have been rising fairly strongly in recent months, we do not see any unambiguous indication in our expectations data of sharp upward turning point in demand for housing that some observers, and media accounts, have suggested.”

  4. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Bergenfield family’s ‘Extreme Makeover’ dream come true turns into a burden

    Six years ago, ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” drew crowds and tears as local contractors transformed a Bergenfield split-level into an elegant, state-of-the-art home, complete with solar panels and an interactive control system for the Llanes family.

    Today, the home is for sale, its tall blue doors locked, the phone line disconnected. The Llaneses are moving south, seeking the support of their extended families, a calmer life and lower taxes.
    ..
    They are not the first “Extreme Makeover” family whose new home was too outsized for their lives. Reports have emerged in recent years of former projects across the country in foreclosure, as families struggled to sustain their grand new residences. The change comes as the Llanes family faces several challenges: worsening disabilities, children leaving the nest, and an increasingly expensive home far from their extended family.

    In 2007, acting Gov. Richard Codey signed a law that allowed municipalities to give disabled recipients of charitable renovations a five-year tax abatement on their property improvements.

    The law also helped an Irvington family whose home was destroyed by fire and rebuilt by “Extreme Makeover.” Beverly Turner housed 12 disabled, adopted, and foster children in a ramshackle house — the renovation was at the time the largest in the show’s history.

    Bergenfield’s council approved the ordinance giving the Llanes family a tax break. Mayor Timothy Driscoll recalls a conversation with Vic Llanes from around that time: “He was concerned at the time that there would be a problem at the end of five years,” Driscoll said.

    In 2002, 141 New Bridge was assessed at $117,300. Last year, it was assessed at $443,800 — well above Bergenfield’s average home value. Today, the home is listed for $449,000.

    The family paid $6,488 in taxes in 2007 and over $13,000 in 2011, records show. The real estate listing puts 2012 taxes at more than $15,000.

  5. grim says:

    Interesting op ed in Forbes arguing against a home price recovery:

    How Is Federal Housing Policy Populist When Prices Are Rising?

  6. Ernest Money says:

    They should’ve changed the name of Extreme Makeover into Make Rubes Homeless.

  7. grim says:

    From Forbes:

    How The Housing Recovery Will Take Shape In Coming Months

    All that good news begs the question: what can we expect from housing in the coming months?

    “We got to the point where housing couldn’t fall any farther,” notes John Canally, an investment strategist for LPL Financial. “Seven years into it and we are finally seeing a turnaround — but it will be modest at best.”

    Canally likens the national-level housing market recovery to a “crooked U” in shape: home prices fell dramatically from 2006 through 2009, then bounced along an uneven bottom (falling a bit more following the expiration of the 2010 home buyer tax credits) for three years before finally beginning to turn upward in recent months.

    Lauren Pressman, director of real estate at Aspiriant, also believes housing is making a U-shaped rebound. “It does seem that we are on solid ground for a recovery, or least no more continued depreciation in home prices in most markets,” says Pressman. Yet she doesn’t expect prices to rise dramatically any time soon, thanks to the lackluster jobs market, an overhang of distressed shadow inventory, and ongoing credit issues.

    Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.com, has expectations that echo Pressman’s. “We think the bottom is going to be a long flat affair where home value appreciation over the next two to four years, depending on the market, will be in the 1-3% range,” explains Humphries. Zillow’s formal home value projection (which includes all homes, listed for sale and off the market) entails a 1.1% rate of appreciation from June 2012 through June 2013. Humphries believes a healthy (non-bubble) 2.5-5% rate of appreciation won’t kick in until sometime between 2014 and 2016.

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    The upshot for Shiller and his colleagues is that while “a recovery may be plausible, and home prices have been rising fairly strongly in recent months, we do not see any unambiguous indication in our expectations data of sharp upward turning point in demand for housing that some observers, and media accounts, have suggested.”

    Prices are down 25% from peak in our area and there is no job growth. Zero. In the immortal words of BC Bob, “Sell? Sell to whom?” It’ll continue to be a slow, grinding death for the forseeable future. It’s a lock, especially now that we know the empty suit has been given four more years.

  9. grim says:

    Same story with the HGTV Dream Home contests, aren’t they pretty much all sold off within a year or two, with the winners taking huge huge tax hits (and bled dry by carrying costs). I’m sure the smart ones sell their white elephants immediately.

  10. yo says:

    More evidence of housing recovery
    Price per square foot rising in most active markets

    Here’s some of what the company’s figures for the three-month period ended Aug. 1 tell us:

    •Phoenix and Fort Myers, Fla. are rebounding very well, as are San Jose and Detroit.

    •The median price per square foot paid in Phoenix rose by a whopping 31.2% from the same period a year ago, from $64.03 to $84.01. Interestingly, the median price in the Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale CBSA was up 31.36% over the same period, from $118,000 to $155,000.

    •In the Fort Myers CBSA, the median square foot cost was up 19.4%, from $59.46 to $71.

    •In the San Jose, Calif.-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CBSA, the median price per square foot rose almost 19%, from $377.86 to $449.51. Nearly $450 a foot is a lot to pay for a house, which is why the median sales price in San Jose was $765,375 as of Aug. 1.

    •But it’s even more expensive in the neighboring CBSA of San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, where the median price per square foot is $476.95, up 5.9% from a year earlier.

    •The Detroit area also is showing signs of a strong recovery. The average cost per square foot in the Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn CBSA rose by 16.4%, from $41.54 to $48.34, while the price in Warren, Mich.-Troy-Farmington Hills increased by 10.3%, from $68.01 to $75.

    Overall, prices were up by double digits in eight CBSAs. On the flip side, none of the 22 core areas which registered lower prices per square foot over the past three months saw more than an 8% decline. The largest slides were in Gary, Ind., down 7.8%, and Birmingham, Ala., at minus 6.4%.

    For what it’s worth, the median price per foot for the 100 most active markets combined was $89.75 as of Aug. 1, a 2.5% increase from $87.44 at the same time a year ago.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-evidence-of-housing-recovery-2012-09-28

  11. Ann says:

    That Extreme Home Makeover story makes me feel sad.

  12. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Is Housing Risen From Ashes? ‘Industry Has Come Back’

    Economists are saying it, and now even some Americans are saying it.

    It may not seem like a lot, but 27 percent of Americans believe the value of their homes will increase in the next year, according the CNBC All America Economic Survey.

    That is the highest percentage since 2007 and the third straight quarter that such optimism has gained.

    “Overall the housing industry has come back,” said Standard and Poors’ David Blitzer, commenting on Tuesday’s release of the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. “We might finally get a little boost to the economy from the housing sector.”

  13. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  14. Ann says:

    I’d rather live on an Avenue than a Road. Boulevard, what is this Quebec?

  15. Ernest Money says:

    Phoenix, Ft. Myers, Detroit…all recovering markets.

    Gee, I wonder why?

  16. grim says:

    I wonder if this is a matter of Avenue and Street values dragged down a bit by the gridded numericals commonplace in cities/urban areas. Surprised that Road beat Court though, always assumed Court to be associated with a dead end or cul-de-sac, which sometimes indicates higher property values.

  17. Ernest Money says:

    Ann (11)-

    The people who ran that show- and who exploited people who were obviously either uneducated or mentally challenged- should be jailed.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    “Overall the housing industry has come back,” said Standard and Poors’ David Blitzer, commenting on Tuesday’s release of the latest S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. “We might finally get a little boost to the economy from the housing sector.”

    Where’s the job growth? 8,000,000 fewer jobs than 4 years ago and the monthly jobs report is abysmal. Pension obligations are on the brink, Bernank is printing 40 billion more per month, leverage and credit is non-existent so what defines this comeback in the housing industry?

  19. grim says:

    17 – I agree with you that the show was clearly exploitative. The whole “do good-feel good” nature of the show was completely manufactured to bring in huge numbers of viewers (and with viewers come big advertising dollars and sponsorships). Keep in mind the people that made this show were also responsible for Big Brother, Fear Factor, and a number of other “realty shows”, as if you couldn’t tell by the gameshow-like nature of the program. Most over-the-top renovations that they did were more geared towards the viewers than the owners themselves (2.5 story foyers/great rooms?, 2000 or 3000 square foot additions?, the trendiest new kitchens and styles?, outrageous outbuildings (commanding huge taxes)?).

  20. yo says:

    Do we want home affordablity to every middleclass or just the ones that can afford it? An imigrant family making $46,000 will never be able to afford a house even if bought in the 90’s bringing it to today.If their salaries just catch up as in the graph.Making less than $60,000 and owning a home from the 90’s,assuming no equity refi today in the northeast I think will be a big struggle.Cosidering all the expenses,cable, phone, cellphones insurance,car insurance.
    Only good thing about a home bought in the 90’s and not taking equity loans,that house is almost paid and they are sitting in a huge equity.Equity is a savings, better than continued renting.But making less than $60,000 is a struggle.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    Location and taxes are nice on this one. It’s too heavy on the price. Sold for 180K in 1995, currently listed at 749K. It looks like substantial upgrade was done. Give me a price on this one:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3094775397-69-Maryland-Rd-Paramus-NJ-07652

  22. Ann says:

    17 agree. jail time would be appropriate.

    Yes, perhaps people think Road and Boulevard sound more haughty than Street and Avenue. I’ll take Street and Avenue over the faux-woodsy-hunter names like Trail and Run.

  23. Ann says:

    FastEddie, I’d say 550-575. No more than 600.

  24. Ann says:

    Re EHM, you couldn’t beat those Reveals though.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    Ann [23],

    Should I put a bid in for 575K? Will they even counter? It looks like they’re asking for a retirement check.

  26. grim says:

    Looks like they added at least 1000 square feet to the original house, guessing they did the reno around 2000 (as evidenced by the $70k HEL/OC). Looking through the pix, it looks like they may have done some other reno work over the years. According to the tax records, the house is 3,162 square feet. That’s a big house, no question.

  27. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie. I dunno. I’m not a big believer in the “lowball.” I think more than 10% is a waste of time, but that’s just me. PSF, 575-600 is seems fair for that house (200 psf?) Is it really 3000 sf or are they putting in the basement as well?

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    grim,

    What’s your estimate on a price, off the top of your head?

  29. grim says:

    27 – Looks like they blew out the back with two levels, and extended the side as well, so I’m going to say that’s all above grade space. The picture from the rear of the home gives a better idea of the size than the front.

  30. Brian says:

    You can’t take it with you when you die.

    $7 million in gold found in dead Nevada man’s home
    By Isolde Raftery, NBC News
    September 28, 2012, 5:10 am NBCNews.com

    The Appeal via Nevada DMV Walter Samaszko Jr.When Walter Samaszko Jr. died at his home in Carson City, Nev., he had $200 in a bank account. But as officials later discovered, Samaszko had about $7 million stored neatly around his home, the Nevada Appeal reported.

    In late June, neighbors called authorities because of a smell emanating from Samaszko’s home. He was a recluse who had told them he hated the government and feared getting shots, but still, it had been a while since they had seen him, according to the Appeal.

    According to the coroner, Samaszko, 69, had been dead for at least a month. He died of heart problems, the Las Vegas Sun reported.

    In came the cleanup crews, which discovered boxes of gold in the garage.

    “At that point, we took the house apart,” said Carson City clerk-recorder Alan Glover.

    They found gold coins and bullion, tiny dos-pesos, $20 gold pieces, Austrian ducats, Kruggerrands and English Sovereigns dating to the 1840s – enough gold to fill two wheelbarrows.

    Samaszko and his mother had lived in the three-bedroom home since the 1970s, which is around the time they started collecting gold. Glover told the Appeal that the two kept detailed records of the gold they had purchased.

    As for who can lay claim to the riches — Glover said the Internal Revenue Service will take a sizable amount in taxes — about $750,000 — and that the rest will likely go to a first cousin, a substitute teacher in San Rafael, Calif., who is Samaszko’s only relative as far as authorities can tell.

    The Las Vegas Sun reported that Glover’s office found her using a list of people who had attended Samaszko’s mother’s funeral.

    Samaszko’s home is currently for sale for $105,000.

  31. grim says:

    I’d need to drive through the neighborhood and get a feel for the parkway noise/view. Not sure exactly where it lies on the curve.

    $600 seems low based on what I see, but there isn’t a whole lot in the price range in that area that sold in the last year. I see alot of mid/high 5 splits and bi’s that were in nice shape, but only moderately updated (not in size, only fixtures/finishes).

    Looking at anything that might represent a close comp, 805 Jersey (2814sq) went off at $701k, 4 Lyndcrest (2775sq) went for $685k.

  32. Painhrtz - Awaiting Clot's Apocalypse! says:

    government has got to get theirs. seriously what right do they have to confisctate 750K Oh thats righ F*ck you thats why

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If this housing rally continues through next Spring I think I may have to sell into it and go back to renting.

  34. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Then I’ll start a housing bubble blog.

  35. Samestuff Differentday says:

    GRIM –

    This is getting tiresome. Your posts, this market, etc.

    Same misinformation from the media.
    Same manipulation from the sale-related parties (Banks, appraisers, realtors, sellers).

    There is/was no ‘recovery’. Poeple lost their homes, many of which didn’t deserve and many of which were ATM’s that called them on their loans.
    There is/was no job growth. People lost their jobs and haven’t gotten new ones. Unemployment went vertical and stayed there (yes, it counts when people are no longer counted b/c they can’t find work – just ask them).
    There is/was no income growth.
    Government welfare programs went vertical, too, and yes, they’ve stayed there so as to shape the next election.
    Savings growth, for just the few, is taken from them if foolish enough to put it into this asset bubble – and YES it will pop – they all do.
    Days on market has gone vertical for the vast majority of homes.
    The few that have sold were quality and are fallaciously being used as ‘comparables’ to the majority, which is crap.
    Ask prices are ridiculous and sellers are delusional.
    Realtors could care less about closing a deal – they’re holding the line on their commissions and aren’t putting skin into the deal (just imagine if they’d shave a point to get the sale done, or act as a dual and cut the fee by 1/3 or 1/2).

    The only ‘green shoots’ are the weeds that now need fall treatment (get to it this weekend).

    Oh, and have you noticed how Home Depot and others are focusing on home repair as opposed to upgrades. Think about it. They want you to put lipstick on your pig so you can sell into this bubble.

    Yes, the $/sq ft is near/above the peak of ~2006-07.
    Total taxes are near/above peak, too. Although, the land assessments haven’t recovered, but the additionally aged ‘improvement’ portion of the assessment has.
    None of this was reasonable before (when per capita wages were significantly higher), and it still isn’t reasonable now.
    Oh, and you do remember what happened then, don’t ya? POP!

    Come on, now. Be responsible.
    STOP HYPING THESE FOOLS WITH WISHFUL THINKING AND DELUSION.

    Business cleansed their balance sheets and postured w/ cash for if they couldn’t float debt. Individuals will need to do the same and otherwise get unconventional loans. Problem is that no one is responsible anymore and as such, no one will get credit they want. Serves this narcissistic society right in many senses, but it harms those who aren’t and didn’t participate in that behavior.

    Critical reasoning –
    Same S***, Different Day

  36. grim says:

    The only other property in the area that’s a consideration is 6 Curry at $579k. Throwing out all the properties on Pascack and Linwood as busy streets, everything else is a 3br.

    Other recent sales in the area that are interesting. 774 Livingston at $555k, nice house, but tiny lot size. 743 Walnut also interesting, bi level, went off at $525k. Wasn’t bad but it looked like it needed some work, and some of the less recent upgrades were already starting to show some wear and tear.

    821 Alden, a new 5br went for $785k, also looked like a really nice place. All new, done up, looks like it’s in the 2750-3000 square foot range.

  37. POS cape says:

    10:

    “The Detroit area also is showing signs of a strong recovery. The average cost per square foot in the Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn CBSA rose by 16.4%, from $41.54 to $48.34”

    Buy now or be priced out of Detroit forever.

  38. Brian says:

    36 –

    Is that Patrick or somebody from his blog again?

  39. 3B Buying says:

    #4 grim: 15k in taxes is crazy. In Bergenfield it is insane.

  40. grim says:

    It’s a semi regular posting under a different id. I don’t think that was really Patrick posting yesterday either (we’ve traded emails before).

  41. 3B Buying says:

    #8 Fast: And according to CS, prices are still falling in the NY metro area.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    Replace “show” with “legislation”, “viewers” with “voters” and “advertising” with “lobbyists” and you have a description of Obamacare……or any liberal targeted detritus….

    grim says:
    September 28, 2012 at 7:37 am
    17 – I agree with you that the show was clearly exploitative. The whole “do good-feel good” nature of the show was completely manufactured to bring in huge numbers of viewers (and with viewers come big advertising dollars and sponsorships).

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    3B,

    I know prices are still falling but we’re down from peak and I need to enter. The problem is, I have nothing to bid on. There’s very little to choose from and the houses that come close to a fit have at least one major flaw that will turn into a regret if I buy. I’m not looking for 10 out of 10 on the list but 4 out of 10 isn’t going to work either. Especially not with 600K price tags. The far north west corner of Mahwah and a house on the Montvale/NY border is not an option either. That’s too far. Ideally, biggest bang for the buck and convenience to work/school would be Northern Paramus.

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pain – from yesterday – LOL. My college girlfriend was from Ironbound so I was well acquainted with all of those stereotypes, albeit not until my early 20’s. You forgot driving the Caddy real slow with the power seat reclined with just your left on the steering wheel at 12 o’clock showing off your rings. My girlfriend claimed to have never used the high beams in her car because she never went anywhere that dark.

    Expat nah just seeing how far captain cheapo goes in hitting all the boxes on the stereotype.

    for instance to fulfill the jersey wop stereotype. My mother wears animal print all the time, my grandfather looks like an extra from goodfellas with the caddy to match. I had a distant relative who actually was an extra in good fellas and had a small role on the Soprano’s. My mom drove and Iroc in the 80′s/. I once owned a pair of Z cavarichis. Yes I used to be expected somewhere for dinner on suday afternoons. I have never been to Italy and am 4 genrations removed but had an italian flag on my first car. Of course I am not full wop only 75% the other 25% hungarian accounting for my body hair and fould odor : )

    there that was completely fair.

  45. Brian says:

    41 –
    The guy has some interesting things to say over on his blog.

    However, now that he’s selling a book, it makes me wonder about his ability to be impartial.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Santelli again rocking it earlier. Liesman doing his opinion of utopia and Santelli killing him with reality.

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [45] Reminds me of the 80’s joke:

    Q.How do you empty out a club on the Jersey Shore?
    A.Have the DJ announce that there’s a black IROC being towed outside.

  48. JJ's B.S says:

    Making 46K and owning your home is a huge sweet spot. Families near me, who bought around 1992-1998 who had to make a big downpayment as at time banks were tough and low income you had to put up more mainly own their homes.

    Free lunch programs, Enhanced School Tax Relief on Property taxes, free school trips, free college education, all are based on income and savings, most neglect home equity for some reason. Therefore folks can own a 500K cash, two used cars, a boat and not have to pay for chocolate milk in the school cafeteria. Most likely 46k=76K as at 76K you are shut out of all govt programs.

    yo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 7:38 am

    Do we want home affordablity to every middleclass or just the ones that can afford it? An imigrant family making $46,000 will never be able to afford a house even if bought in the 90′s bringing it to today.If their salaries just catch up as in the graph.Making less than $60,000 and owning a home from the 90′s,assuming no equity refi today in the northeast I think will be a big struggle.Cosidering all the expenses,cable, phone, cellphones insurance,car insurance.
    Only good thing about a home bought in the 90′s and not taking equity loans,that house is almost paid and they are sitting in a huge equity.Equity is a savings, better than continued renting.But making less than $60,000 is a struggle.

  49. yo says:

    A $500,000 house at 7% during the bubble is equal to a $750,000 house at 3.5% in terms of monthly payment $3356 not adding the depreciated price of homes since the bubble. Not saying you have to buy a $750,000 home.There are plenty $250,000 homes out there that you will be paying less than rent.80% of working age living in the US have a job,why do you need the 8 million unemployed to have a job to get a housing recovery.US population is 312 Million.
    We have a spike of government welfare programs due to the great recession.3 trillion of QE not being reinvested in the economy over a trillion companies are holding,not being re invested.This money can not stay in the side line forever.There is your job growth.
    The real question is;will this numbers go down when we start to see investment growing?
    It seems like you are assuming the growth is not going to come forever.Stats shows Americans are starting to be optimistic about their future.That is always a good start.

  50. 3B Buying says:

    #47 Fast: What was the topic?

  51. can i Ax a question? says:

    Grim, did you see this?

    “Guns don’t kill people, printers do!
    September 28, 2012 at 3:18 am in Law, Science | Permalink
    Imagine an America in which anyone can download and print a gun in their own home. They wouldn’t need a license, a background check, or much technical knowledge, just a 3D printer. That’s the vision a cadre of industrious libertarians are determined to turn into reality.

    Last week, Wiki Weapon, a project to create the first fully printable plastic gun received the $20,000 in funding it needed to get off the ground. The project’s goal is not to develop and sell a working gun, but rather to create an open-source schematic (or blueprint) that individuals could download and use to print their own weapons at home.

    The technology that makes this possible is 3D printing, a process during which plastic resin is deposited layer by layer to create a three dimensional object. In the past few years 3D printers have become increasingly affordable, and just last week the first two retail stores selling 3D printers opened in the United States with models ranging from $600 to $2,199.”

  52. JJ's B.S says:

    Realogy sets IPO terms, valued at up to $3.5 bln
    REUTERS — 7:25 AM ET 09/28/12

    * To sell 40 mln shares in IPO at $23-$27 each

    * Co valued at $3.51 bln at top-end of range

    * Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan lead underwriters

    * To list stock on NYSE under symbol “RLGY” (Adds background, details)

    Sept 28 (Reuters) – Apollo-backed Realogy Holdings Corp plans to sell 40 million shares in its initial public offering at between $23 and $27 each, valuing the real estate services company at up to $3.51 billion.

  53. 3B Buying says:

    #22 Ann: Funny I think Road and Boulevard sound like busy streets.

  54. 3B Buying says:

    #18 Fast: Agreed, but I guess we roll with it and see what happens. I am also having inventory issues too. One I should have bid on, but missed. Another one I liked, but no basement, gotta have a basement.

  55. JJ's B.S says:

    Lets see in 2006 Margin Rates to buy a stock was 8%. Today margin rates to buy a stock is 3%. Therefore stocks are a better buy today.

    Lets see on 2006 mortgage rates were 6%, my bonds were paying 8%. Person savings is same as mortgage balance. I am up 2%. Now bonds are paying 3% and mortgages are paying 3.5% I am losing .5%.

    Saying lower rates makes houses a better investment is like a timeshare operator or a PSL seller at the Meadowlands by offering you zero percent loan makes the investment a better investment. Bottom line at 1% or 10% buying a 500K home that falls in value 200K will have same outcome.

    Also most sales that are deals are cash. Mortgages give the illussion they are 3.5%. The are not. Distressed sales near me go for 10-20% below normal sales. Distressed sales usually are cash deals. So that 500K house at 3.5%. Is more likely in year one really a loan at 13.5-23.5% interest in year one.

    Short sale I bid on non-contingent on a mortgage is priced 100K less than similar for sale by owner/realtor normal home sales. Closing costs on a mortgage are like 12k. So they are paying 112K extra to get that 3.5% mortgage. YIPPEE
    Today

    yo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 9:12 am

    A $500,000 house at 7% during the bubble is equal to a $750,000 house at 3.5% in terms of monthly payment $3356 not adding the depreciated price of homes since the bubble. Not saying you have to buy a $750,000 home.There are plenty $250,000 homes out there that you will be paying less than rent.80% of working age living in the US have a job,why do you need the 8 million unemployed to have a job to get a housing recovery.US population is 312 Million.
    We have a spike of government welfare programs due to the great recession.3 trillion of QE not being reinvested in the economy over a trillion companies are holding,not being re invested.This money can not stay in the side line forever.There is your job growth.
    The real question is;will this numbers go down when we start to see investment growing?
    It seems like you are assuming the growth is not going to come forever.Stats shows Americans are starting to be optimistic about their future.That is always a good start.

  56. 3B Buying says:

    #12 grim: I wonder what makes the 27% of Americans say that? Just wondering, and who are these people that get surveyed.

  57. 3B Buying says:

    #15 ernest: Why? Seriously?

  58. yo says:

    Exactly right! If they continued renting,no way they can be sitting on that $500,000 while claiming free milk at school

    JJ’s B.S says:

    September 28, 2012 at 9:10 am

    Making 46K and owning your home is a huge sweet spot. Families near me, who bought around 1992-1998 who had to make a big downpayment as at time banks were tough and low income you had to put up more mainly own their homes.

    Free lunch programs, Enhanced School Tax Relief on Property taxes, free school trips, free college education, all are based on income and savings, most neglect home equity for some reason. Therefore folks can own a 500K cash, two used cars, a boat and not have to pay for chocolate milk in the school cafeteria. Most likely 46k=76K as at 76K you are shut out of all govt programs.

    yo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 7:38 am

    Do we want home affordablity to every middleclass or just the ones that can afford it? An imigrant family making $46,000 will never be able to afford a house even if bought in the 90′s bringing it to today.If their salaries just catch up as in the graph.Making less than $60,000 and owning a home from the 90′s,assuming no equity refi today in the northeast I think will be a big struggle.Cosidering all the expenses,cable, phone, cellphones insurance,car insurance.
    Only good thing about a home bought in the 90′s and not taking equity loans,that house is almost paid and they are sitting in a huge equity.Equity is a savings, better than continued renting.But making less than $60,000 is a struggle.

  59. grim says:

    You can make a zip gun with a some pipe and a few hand tools. Heck, throw in a decent bench grinder and a drill press and given some time, you could probably make a halfway useful firearm. Being able to print the plastic components in a modern gun is interesting (think Glock), but the vast majority of the important/working components are still machined or cast steel, something that’s not going to be printed.

    Remember, you can’t really make a gun out of plastic (at least the plastics we have today). A fully plastic gun isn’t a gun, it’s a bomb, it would pretty much blow up in your hands. And I wouldn’t even go so far as to compare the kinds of plastics that Glock uses with the types of plastic most are familiar with (I bet their plastic is some kind of fiber reinforced thermoplastic that’s more similar to a composite than coke bottle).

  60. Brian says:

    3B:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-bubble-in-phoenix-is-an-utter-fraud-and-scam-2012-9

    58.3B Buying says:
    September 28, 2012 at 9:27 am
    #15 ernest: Why? Seriously?

  61. JJ's B.S says:

    Hey, I am planing on getting a mortgage on the investment property. Do banks care if I use a margin loan to fund downpayment? I want to put down 200K, finance 225k at 15 years. Going for 15 as want mortgage done by retirement. However, it looks like rates are staying low till 2015/2016. I have tons of callable bonds. I figure as long as rates stay low for at least another 18 months the margin loan will pay itself off as I have a lot of calls coming up and a few 2014 maturities. I dont want to sell as I dont know what to sell as not all callable bonds get called. Also it solves my too long duration issue by spending next two years no buying bonds. Plus the margin loan and the mortgage is tax deductable. Margin loan only to extent I have taxable interest but that will be a match book issue as margin loan will fall while bonds are called.

    If rates shoot up in 2016 as I suspect and margin loan is paid off and I locked in the low rate 15 year mortgage I am set. However, this could end badly as I will be 100% leveraged for first few months.

  62. yo says:

    This will feel like being stabbed by an ice pick,deadly

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cO4IbdOOsb0

  63. yo says:

    I cashed out on my primary to pay cash on my second home.During that time,I was told why do that,why not just get a loan on the second home,primary is almost paid.My first thought was,money I am taking out from primary is equal to cash price of second home.Dont need to come up with downpayment.So,no money coming out from me.Second,mostly everybody takes a full deduction on refinance.I am still deducting the interest.
    It turned out a good decision,most help from Govt is for primary homes not second homes.I was able to HARP the mortgage and brought it down to 15 years with a 3% rate.If HARP 3 comes out I might still be able to refi again to a lower rate.I would have never able to do all this if I took the mortgage against the second home.

  64. 30 year realtor says:

    Gary, I have been in that house in Paramus within the last month. It is in excellent condition and is updated. Very nice home and the price is not too far off the mark. Under contract property at 730 Reeder Rd had same ask and is only 2200 square feet.

  65. grim says:

    JJ – Yes, they will care.

    In the past, there used to be an Alt-A option called a pledged asset or pledged securities loan, where you could pledge in lieu of a deposit/down payment. These were generally pretty rare in the past, I imagine they are almost non-existent today.

    You will be asked to show the source of your down-payment funds, so you’ll need to have had that $200k downpayment liquid in a deposit account for over 60-90 days. Anything shorter they are going to make you source the funds back, and if they are associated with the loan, they are going to be much more strict in regards to underwriting. Depending on the lender, there might be other options, even if they do allow it, your back-end DTI will still need to fall in the proper ranges though (the house payment will be looked at as the sum of both loans).

  66. 3B Buying says:

    Chase quoting 30 yr mtg at 3.375 no points. Just saying.

  67. Patrick.net says:

    that was just a post from the site…not from patrick himself.

    brian – can you trust grim to be impartial? now that he is a homeowner is he biased?

  68. JJ's B.S says:

    30 year treasury is under 3, big deal.

    3B Buying says:
    September 28, 2012 at 10:25 am

    Chase quoting 30 yr mtg at 3.375 no points. Just saying.

  69. yo says:

    How does fed buying MBS affect future foreclosure or foreclosures?

  70. Brian says:

    Dunno, Only Grim can really answer that.

    Everyone has a prism through which they view life.

    68.Patrick.net says:
    September 28, 2012 at 10:46 am
    that was just a post from the site…not from patrick himself.

    brian – can you trust grim to be impartial? now that he is a homeowner is he biased?

  71. Brian says:

    68 –
    What’s yours?

  72. yo says:

    As far as I remember,since I started following this blog,Grim was always a real estate owner. I have red about multis he owned. He backs what he says with facts not merely saying 8 million are unemployed so there cant be a housing recovery

  73. JJ's B.S says:

    A margin loan is technically not a loan. Who the heck can afford to put cash at zero % interest for an extended period of time. I have munis paying 5% tax free. Selling taking a capital gain and then putting them at zero percent in order to qualify for a mortgage is a stealth cost of getting a mortgage. Since it is a short sale and can drag on for months I cant afford to do that. Best I can do is go run-off and let balances build. But it wont be no 90 days.

    grim says:
    September 28, 2012 at 10:25 am

    JJ – Yes, they will care.

    In the past, there used to be an Alt-A option called a pledged asset or pledged securities loan, where you could pledge in lieu of a deposit/down payment. These were generally pretty rare in the past, I imagine they are almost non-existent today.

    You will be asked to show the source of your down-payment funds, so you’ll need to have had that $200k downpayment liquid in a deposit account for over 60-90 days. Anything shorter they are going to make you source the funds back, and if they are associated with the loan, they are going to be much more strict in regards to underwriting. Depending on the lender, there might be other options, even if they do allow it, your back-end DTI will still need to fall in the proper ranges though (the house payment will be looked at as the sum of both loans).

  74. chicagofinance says:

    Is this a joke? Mr. Patrick.net, author, bloviator whatever…..you better be joking because you have seven years of evidence. As a matter of pure tact, you have a serious amount of chutzpah coming onto these threads and posting that…

    Patrick.net says:
    September 28, 2012 at 10:46 am
    brian – can you trust grim to be impartial? now that he is a homeowner is he biased?

  75. I do accept as true with all of the ideas you’ve introduced on your post. They are really convincing and will certainly work. Nonetheless, the posts are very short for starters. Could you please lengthen them a bit from next time? Thank you for the post.

  76. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [75] grim and Lawrence Yun may well be the same person. I’ve never seen them in the same place at the same time.

  77. JJ's B.S says:

    Just cause grim is a realtor, homeowner and has a mortgage does not mean he is bias

  78. JJ's B.S says:

    PATH fares going up on Monday
    Friday September 28, 2012, 9:02 AM
    JERSEY CITY, (AP) — PATH riders should add cash to their fare cards.

    It will cost more to ride the trains beginning 3 a.m. Monday.

    The price of a one-way ride will increase 25 cents to $2.25.

    PATH riders will also pay more for multi-day passes. The seven-day Smart Link pass will cost $3 more or $24. The 30-day Smart Link pass will be $73, up $8.

  79. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This has been driving me crazy for over 24 hours. Can anyone ID this mid-60’s American sedan:

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/217/whatcaristhis.jpg/

  80. yo says:

    Capitalism at its best.No regards its workers

    Mother Jones, the magazine that published a secretly-made tape of Mitt Romney’s May remarks to donors, released another video yesterday that shows the Republican nominee in 1985 characterizing Bain Capital LLC as a partnership created to invest in companies, help manage them and “harvest them at a significant profit.”

    Mother Jones said the video was on a 1998 CD-ROM marking the 25th anniversary of Bain & Co., the consulting firm that Romney left to co-found Bain Capital.

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [17] money,

    I never watched those shows but did watch repo games a few times. OMG, what utter morons.

    If these are the same type of people, I would rather give them a house than a car. At least a house doesn’t move so it can’t plow its uninsured ass into your car and wipe out your family.

  82. yo says:

    Is that a Ford Fairlane?

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [82] redux,

    [channeling Meat here]

    If you ever want to do some serious herd-thinning, I suggest we follow the repo games crews around and use the contestants for targets. It’s bad enough that they vote but I am more concerned that they breed.

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [83] yo

    That’s my movie name.

  85. JJ's B.S says:

    looks like an early 1960s pontiac catalina

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [86] I even think it says Catalina on the rear fender but I can’t find a single picture with that door bulge, a bumper that svelte, or the bodywork of the rear fender.

  87. 3B Buying says:

    #69 It confims IMO my belief that mtg rates are headed to 3%. Pay attention!!

  88. joyce says:

    (81)

    Another example of ‘yo’ having not a clue what capitalism is (or anything else for that matter).

  89. Libtard at home says:

    3.25 on 30-year
    2.625 on 15-year

    Where’s my 2.50?

  90. POS cape says:

    80:
    Car is a 1964 Ford Custom. It says Custom on the rear fender.

  91. yo says:

    You are the smart one.I bow to you

    joyce says:
    September 28, 2012 at 12:34 pm
    (81)

    Another example of ‘yo’ having not a clue what capitalism is (or anything else for that matter).

  92. Libtard at home says:

    I wonder if yo calls his mother yo momma?

  93. yo says:

    I guess you never felt a belt whacked on your butt

    Libtard at home says:
    September 28, 2012 at 12:37 pm
    I wonder if yo calls his mother yo momma?

  94. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [91] POS cape – Thank You!

  95. raging bull jj says:

    Acceptable Sources of Funds For FHA Loans
    Checking/Savings Accounts/CDs
    Lease to Own/Rent Credit with Option to Purchase
    Interested Party Contributions (subject to limitations)
    Loan Repayment Proceeds (with appropriate and acceptable paper trail)
    Corporate Relocation Buyout
    Relocation Benefits
    Use of Business Funds (as per policy and if allowed by underwriter)
    Disaster Relief Grant or Loan
    Non-Traditional Savings Plan/IDA Accounts
    Employer Assistance
    Gifts
    Gifts-Pooled Funds
    Gifts of Equity
    Gifts/Grants from Non-Profit
    Gifts – Wedding
    Retirement Accounts
    Proceeds from Sale of Home
    Sale of Assets
    Government Bonds
    Stocks/Securities
    Inheritance
    Trade Equity
    Land Equity
    Trust Account
    Life Insurance Net Cash Value
    Bridge/Swing Loans
    Income Tax Refunds
    Saving Funds to Close
    Gambling or Lottery Winnings (this is my favorite one)
    Lawsuits or Insurance Settlements
    Borrowed Funds Secured by an Asset
    Financing Concessions
    Cash-on-Hand

  96. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If I saw that car like this I might have recognized it: http://www.imcdb.org/vehicle_59128-Ford-Custom-54E-1964.html

  97. yo says:

    #96 I am surprised 401k and IRA is not on the list.Last time I did a loan in 2005, all I showed was my 401k and I am done

  98. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Here’s how that car might have looked in civilian attire: http://www.flickriver.com/photos/8490341@N04/5021146217/

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [80] expat,

    Strikes me as a Chevy of some breed. Photo was developed in 1968 so it couldn’t be later and cars in that time took on those lines. Search 1966-68 model years.

    The nameplate on the rear quarter panel suggests chevelle but the body isn’t right. Also its a four door so that should limit your search. Sort of reminded me of a Ford Falcon or other Ford from the mid-60’s but the nameplate clearly begins with a “c”. So its Chevrolet or Chrysler if manufacterer, and if model, what begins with C? Corvair, catalina, Chevelle all come to mind but I doubt is is one of those.

    Anyway, that’s my 0.02. Its intriguing but I have other things to do.

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [91] POS

    You are Da Man. I concur.

    Funny thing is that I was thinking Ford (they liked those mid-body bumpouts and rounded rears back then) but I could not read the rear quarter panel except for the C so that threw me.

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Man, I am getting a woody looking at all those old cars from the 60’s.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    So much for their patriotic gesture. Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21ac83e2-07db-11e2-9df2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz27mmz8QXO

  103. Brian says:

    I like classic cars and all but I think you’ll find this works better:

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/photo-galleries/2012/09/26/cheerleader-roundup-week-3/

    102.Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    September 28, 2012 at 1:02 pm
    Man, I am getting a woody looking at all those old cars from the 60′s.

  104. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [98]yo – I imagine you’d have to show about 50% more than your down payment in an IRA or 401K as you’d have to pay the taxes and penalty unless you are already at retirement age. If you were taking a loan out of your 401K for the down payment then the loan repayments would have to figure into your DTI as well, I guess. IIRC, when we bought in 2002 I qualified showing both retirement and non-retirement investments, but I didn’t sell any assets until a couple weeks before closing. I put 40% down and I was keeping that in closed-end leveraged bond funds like ACG and AWF which pay dividends monthly.

    #96 I am surprised 401k and IRA is not on the list.Last time I did a loan in 2005, all I showed was my 401k and I am done

  105. Brian says:

    “In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel. Defeat Jihad.”

    -Pamela Geller

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/video_exclusive_woman_defaces_anti_3xZ5mGVAGc1b6KUMFKGseK

  106. yo says:

    106 expat no down payment. I refi to pay cash on second home.20% equity left on primary

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    Brian, I don’t lust after what I can’t have. Besides, my daughter is on a cheer squad; when you’re round roomfulls of them every week, the excitement wears off pretty darn quick.

  108. JJ's B.S says:

    I thought if you refinanced in excess of your original mortgage it was no longer tax deductible. Also dont understand why would you refinance first home for second home. I am quoted same exact rate for a second home as a first home. Lots of banks let you do “vacation homes” as same rate as primary homes. Plus all the income is taxable pretty much on second home if I have no mortgage.

    I don’t see mucking up my clean title on my house. Plus I am putting rental in a LLC, getting landlord insurance and adjusting my umbrella. I want to limit my loss on the rental in case of my lawsuit just to my 200K downpayment. If I pay cash for second home they have even more to take.

    yo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 1:54 pm

    106 expat no down payment. I refi to pay cash on second home.20% equity left on primary

  109. JJ's B.S says:

    Mortgage Refinancing Tax Deductions for Taxpayers Subject to AMT

    The AMT allows deductions for interest payments on home acquisition loans of up to $1,000,000. But AMT rules deny any deductions for interest on home equity loans for first or second homes, unless the loan proceeds are used to buy, build, or substantially improve the dwellings �€” one reason why advertisements for home equity loans frequently finesse the troublesome question of tax deductibility.

  110. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Forclosure rate in NJ threatens local government credit ratings: Moody’s

    Rising foreclosures and delinquent real estate mortgages are threatening the credit quality of New Jersey’s local governments, Moody’s Investors Service said.

    Cities, towns and other local governments in New Jersey and many other states rely on property tax collections as their main source of revenue. Abundant foreclosures keep the taxable value of property low, hurting that funding source, Moody’s said in a commentary late Thursday.

    New Jersey has the second highest percentage of foreclosures in the United States behind Florida, Moody’s said, citing an August report by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    And the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages increased by 2.4 percent in New Jersey in the second quarter of 2012, while they declined nationally, Moody’s said.

    And the percentage of seriously delinquent mortgages increased by 2.4 percent in New Jersey in the second quarter of 2012, while they declined nationally, Moody’s said.

    “Foreclosure rates in the state are likely to stay higher than the national average over the medium term because New Jersey’s practice of administering foreclosures through the courts tends to be a slow and cumbersome process that tends to be prone to backlogs,” Moody’s said.

    The scenario is likely to keep housing prices in the state low for years, because distressed properties usually sell at steep discounts, Moody’s said.

    The credit rating agency expects New Jersey’s economy to recover more slowly than the rest of the nation from the recession.

  111. grim says:

    3b – looks like 400 Jackson caught a bid

  112. from Patrick.net says:

    “you better be joking” – what if it is not a joke? then what?

    lighten up Francis…it is a fair question, especially in a context in which brian was asking if someone selling a book could be impartial (BTW, I don’t think he is impartial nor does he claim to be. his whole site is based on the premise that buying a home is a BIG mistake).

    chicagofinance – be careful coming down off your high horse.

    chicagofinance says:
    September 28, 2012 at 11:31 am
    Is this a joke? Mr. Patrick.net, author, bloviator whatever…..you better be joking because you have seven years of evidence. As a matter of pure tact, you have a serious amount of chutzpah coming onto these threads and posting that…

    Patrick.net says:
    September 28, 2012 at 10:46 am
    brian – can you trust grim to be impartial? now that he is a homeowner is he biased?

  113. grim says:

    If I was going to write a book right now, I’d title it 50 Shades of Grim.

  114. from Patrick.net says:

    i’d buy it.

    while you’re here…do you think it is unfair or offensive to question whether your views/slant/outlook, etc has changed? i think it is more unfair to hold you to a static view.

  115. 3B Buying says:

    #113 grim: Is that the one backing up to the Parkway?

  116. 3B Buying says:

    #113 No it is not the one backing up to the Pkwy. It is the split we looked at. Decent house, but needed work. I was going to wait for a price drop before submitting a bid. Oh well, I guess I missed that one too!!! I am going to just have to start putting bids in and see what happens. I believe this is all being driven by low rates, and not actual value. God I hate following the crowd!!!

  117. JJ's B.S says:

    Updating procedures today, why is it the IT folks no long like the term EDP? I hate IT looks like the word it, Electronic Data Processing is so cool. Kinda like RACF. I love the cool old BIG mainframes. These little nancy boy blade servers run by IT is so sissified. Give me EDP and full floor mainframes

  118. Ernest Money says:

    yo (94)-

    I’m guessing that you pay to have this experience.

    “I guess you never felt a belt whacked on your butt”

  119. yo says:

    I cashed out on my primary to pay cash on my second home.During that time,I was told why do that,why not just get a loan on the second home,primary is almost paid.My first thought was,money I am taking out from primary is equal to cash price of second home.Dont need to come up with downpayment.So,no money coming out from me.Second,mostly everybody takes a full deduction on refinance.I am still deducting the interest.
    It turned out a good decision,most help from Govt is for primary homes not second homes.I was able to HARP the mortgage and brought it down to 15 years with a 3% rate.If HARP 3 comes out I might still be able to refi again to a lower rate.I would have never able to do all this if I took the mortgage against the second home.

    JJ’s B.S says:
    September 28, 2012 at 2:15 pm
    I thought if you refinanced in excess of your original mortgage it was no longer tax deductible. Also dont understand why would you refinance first home for second home. I am quoted same exact rate for a second home as a first home. Lots of banks let you do “vacation homes” as same rate as primary homes. Plus all the income is taxable pretty much on second home if I have no mortgage.

    I don’t see mucking up my clean title on my house. Plus I am putting rental in a LLC, getting landlord insurance and adjusting my umbrella. I want to limit my loss on the rental in case of my lawsuit just to my 200K downpayment. If I pay cash for second home they have even more to take.

  120. yo says:

    Money,
    Dont worry I will not say anything about your secret

    I’m guessing that you pay to have this experience.

    “I guess you never felt a belt whacked on your butt”

  121. JJ's B.S says:

    But most people who have a second home are in AMT and have sizable assets.
    Plus HARP is form people underwater on your conforming, conventional mortgage, I highly doubt anyone on this site has ever lost money in real estate

    yo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 4:16 pm

    I cashed out on my primary to pay cash on my second home.During that time,I was told why do that,why not just get a loan on the second home,primary is almost paid.My first thought was,money I am taking out from primary is equal to cash price of second home.Dont need to come up with downpayment.So,no money coming out from me.Second,mostly everybody takes a full deduction on refinance.I am still deducting the interest.
    It turned out a good decision,most help from Govt is for primary homes not second homes.I was able to HARP the mortgage and brought it down to 15 years with a 3% rate.If HARP 3 comes out I might still be able to refi again to a lower rate.I would have never able to do all this if I took the mortgage against the second home

  122. yo says:

    I do get hit with AMT but refinancing a primary is deductible (gray area -lots of people are doing it) up to $1M.No mortgage deduction on second home.You dont have to be underwater to qualify for HARP although I was not underwater,I just dont meet the 20% equity. That is why I am glad I took the mortgage on my primary and able to get my pony

    JJ’s B.S says:
    September 28, 2012 at 4:26 pm
    But most people who have a second home are in AMT and have sizable assets.
    Plus HARP is form people underwater on your conforming, conventional mortgage, I highly doubt anyone on this site has ever lost money in real estate

  123. Neanderthal Economist says:

    JJ please. Rates ain’t going up. You said the same thing about 2010 and now 30 yr t bill is below 3%. We’ll see 2% mortgages before we see 5% mortgage.

  124. Mikewaited says:

    Veto 127 correct.

  125. 3b Buying says:

    #127 Veto: I agree too.

  126. AG says:

    “JJ please. Rates ain’t going up. You said the same thing about 2010 and now 30 yr t bill is below 3%. We’ll see 2% mortgages before we see 5% mortgage.”

    Agreed.

  127. AG says:

    Rates will go up when confindence in the Fed is lost. Certainly with a Fed balance sheet of 2.4 trillion compared to an ECB balance sheet of 4 trillion there is plenty of room to ease.

    This time last year the thought of a 3.75 30 year was laughed at. I wonder where we will be next year.

  128. chicagofinance says:

    Not what you were asking…..you wrote this….
    “Patrick.net says: September 28, 2012 at 10:46 am
    brian – can you trust grim to be impartial? now that he is a homeowner is he biased?”

    and that is G-ddamned different…..as posed here, you question his integrity…..unless the point is that you are biased, and cannot fathom that other people can transcend their economic/personal interests to give an intellectually honest opinion…….don’t tar the dude, he is a stand-up guy…although he exposes too much chest hair…..

    from Patrick.net says:
    September 28, 2012 at 3:31 pm
    i’d buy it.

    while you’re here…do you think it is unfair or offensive to question whether your views/slant/outlook, etc has changed? i think it is more unfair to hold you to a static view.

  129. chicagofinance says:

    work4beer: opinion?
    LOU PEPE KRIEK ’06/’07 Brussels, Belgium 5% abv

  130. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: What was the other pub in North Philly that you rated higher than the Memphis Tap Room?

  131. from Patrick.net says:

    total respect for Grim. It was used as a comparison to another market-crash blogger based on Brian’s comments. I trust Grim to call it as he sees it even though he went from market-crash prognosticator to buyer….everyone has to make their move or decision at some point.

    chicagofinance – it wasn’t a personal attack at all; just a topic for discussion.

  132. AG says:

    The _ssholes at the UN have been scheming for years how we should pay taxes to them for the purpose of saving the earth and eliminating world hunger. Trotting out thier minions like man, bear, pig Al Gore whose carbon credit trading scheme got shut down in Chicago a couple years ago. I sniff BS like a dog.

    There will come a time. Just give me the opportunity.

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