Is housing sentiment starting to shift?

From CNN/Money:

Economists: Housing recovery finally here

It’s been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation’s housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

Economists have been encouraged by a variety of readings, including three straight months of increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, a pick-up in sales of existing homes and home construction and a big jump in the price of new home sales.

Mortgage rates are also likely to remain near record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve’s purchase of $40 billion in mortgages a month for the foreseeable future.

Still, economists don’t believe housing is ready to be a major driver of economic growth, as it was during the housing boom and some earlier economic recoveries. But housing could keep the economy moving in the right direction.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

165 Responses to Is housing sentiment starting to shift?

  1. grim says:

    Clear Capital forecasting a 2.6% increase in prices for the NY metro over the next 6 months (barring any kind of wile e. coyote action):

    Clear Capital: Housing Recovery Is in Congress’ Hands.

    “While housing continued to make progress in September, we’ve turned our focus to the impending fiscal cliff,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. “With forecasted gains of 2.2% over the next six months, the threat of the fiscal cliff could throw a wrench into the recovery.

    “If the cliff is avoided, we still run the risk of damaging confidence with a resolution pushed against year-end deadlines. Confidence is key to turning the recovery’s near term sprint into a marathon. The sooner businesses and consumers are reassured, the more likely they are to build, purchase, or loan on a house.”

    The good news: far more markets are improving than declining. Our forecast shows the recovery will sustain the typically slow winter, and start the spring buying season strong. As we approach the year’s end, can fear from an impending fiscal cliff sway consumer confidence and discourage potential home buyers? We say yes, it can. Congress must make tough decisions before the 11th hour.

    Economic uncertainty will keep buyers on the sidelines. Threatening to temper confidence is the fear Congress will not act in time to avert the looming fiscal cliff. The debt ceiling debate last year highlighted how dangerously close lawmakers are willing to come to deadlines before reaching an agreement. Consumers reacted negatively to the high level of uncertainty with a 14.3% drop in sentiment, the largest since the end of the recession. At the same time, home prices were experiencing the worst annual declines since the bottom of the market in 2009. In May 2011 the debt ceiling debate started to heat up, while home prices dropped 6.8% year-over-year. Annual home price declines persisted through 2011, hung over from the expiration of the first-time-home-buyer tax credit and the drop in consumer confidence. Prices finally saw relief in early 2012, following improvement in consumer sentiment.

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. charlie says:

    Zinger: Romney-Ryan may be done; but don’t worry about Paul. He will live like a king in Kenya with that marathon time.

  4. charlie says:

    Zinger 2: Potus wrecked the dollar; O the ryad.

  5. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:


    Don’t fight the Fed: Housing market to recover

    Two rounds of busy government-bond buying by the Federal Reserve have made the Fed the major financier of the government’s endless borrowing, instead of foreigners, for what that’s worth.

    But this hasn’t done much to reach the Fed’s supposed goal of convincing employers to expand their businesses, or hire more people.

    Can the third try by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke do better?

    This latest round of “quantitative easing [is] a totally different approach,” wrote bond-watcher (and past Fed skeptic) Richard X. Bove, in a report to clients of Rochdale Securities.

    This time the Fed’s planned purchases, more than $2 billion a day until employment rises, are focused on mortgage-backed securities. The goal is to boost the market for home loans.

    “Let me shout, the Fed is buying mortgage paper to stimulate housing,” wrote Bove. “This will work,” he added. “Follow the dollars.”

  6. yo says:

    #5 Not to mention the savings that people can save and stimulate the economy,if HARP3 is passed. The Republicans should stop holding and pass HARP3. I believe it will pass,they are just waiting for the Presidential election to be over. No matter who wins.

  7. yo says:

    #6
    Is that not the motto? ” People should take their own responsibility” No help from the government

  8. yome says:

    Positive sentiments keeps on coming

    “BlackRock’s Fink Says U.S. a Year Away From Robust Growth”

  9. yome says:

    Four years ago today, President George W. Bush signed into law the biggest corporate rescue in American history. Even as U.S. unemployment has remained above 8 percent for 43 months, the country’s biggest banks are making almost as much as they ever have.

    The combined $63 billion in profit reported by the six largest U.S. lenders over the four quarters through June is more than they earned in any calendar year since the peak in 2006.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-03/no-joy-on-wall-street-as-biggest-banks-earn-63-billion.html

  10. grim says:

    September Contracts

    Bergen
    2010 – 440
    2011 – 474
    2012 – 637 (Up 34.4% YOY, 44.8% 2 year)

    Essex
    2011 – 208
    2012 – 296 (Up 42.3% YOY)

    Hunterdon
    2011 – 68
    2012 – 98 (Up 44.1%)

    Morris
    2011 – 308
    2012 – 356 (Up 15.6%)

    Passaic
    2011 – 162
    2012 – 213 (Up 31.5%)

    Somerset
    2011 – 183
    2012 – 245 (Up 33.9%)

    Sussex
    2011 – 102
    2012 – 121 (Up 18.6%)

    Union
    2011 – 194
    2012 – 267 (Up 37.6%)

    Warren
    2011 – 56
    2012 – 85 (Up 51.8%)

  11. grim says:

    I continue to be surprised by the strong contracts numbers.

  12. grim says:

    September Inventory

    Bergen
    2011 – 6381
    2012 – 4809 (Down 24.6%)

    Essex
    2011 – 4174
    2012 – 3274 (Down 21.6%)

    Morris
    2011 – 4657
    2012 – 3814 (Down 18.1%)

    Passaic
    2011 – 3201
    2012 – 2625 (Down 14.9%)

    Somerset
    2011 – 3103
    2012 – 2594 (Down 16.3%)

    Union
    2011 – 3693
    2012 – 3016 (Down 18.3%)

  13. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Mortgage applications jump as low rates spur refinancing demand: MBA

    Applications for home mortgages surged last week as demand for refinancing rose to the highest level in more than three years, driven by a drop in interest rates to yet another record low, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, jumped 16.6 percent in the week ended Sept 28.

    The index of refinancing applications surged 19.6 percent, hitting the highest level since April 2009.

    “Financial markets continue to adjust to QE3, as the ongoing presence of the Federal Reserve as a significant buyer of mortgage-backed securities applies downward pressure on rates,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

    Fixed 30-year mortgage rates dropped 10 basis points to average 3.53 percent, down from 3.63 percent the week before.

  14. grim says:

    The completely unreliable ADP employment number comes in at +162k, above estimates of +143k.

  15. joyce says:

    Not arguing in favor of the ADP number… but the BLS ain’t sh*t either.

  16. 3B Buying says:

    #1 grim Isn’t CS and Core Logic stillindicating that prices in the NY Metro area are falling.

  17. 3B Buying says:

    #9 So we go from anemic to robust in a year? Seems like a stretch to me, but time will tell.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    So, I’m gonna wind up bidding on the few dried up french fries laying on the bottom of the f.ucking pan? Where’s the inventory? If dead low interest rates and greater optimism isn’t moving the “pant” up demand, then who’s bullsh1ting who? Where’s the inventory? Seriously, what’s the hold up? Zero points and a 3.6% interest rate so, where’s the inventory?

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    1.3% GDP last quarter and the previous quarter. How is that for robust.

  20. yome says:

    Another positive sentiment.Captain Sunshine must be on his heels

    The housing market is still on shaky ground. Unemployment remains above 8 percent. The one flank of the U.S. economy that’s marching steadily back is the sector that once seemed the weakest: Automotive.

    The auto industry in September reached an important milestone that few other sectors can claim. Carmakers sold cars and light trucks at an annualized rate of 14.9 million, taking into account seasonal adjustments, according to researcher Autodata Corp. That’s the best pace since March 2008, before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

    Consumers weary of driving 11-year-old vehicles with poor mileage are increasingly trading in their jalopies for new, fuel-efficient models. Small car sales climbed 50 percent last month as gasoline prices held above $3.75 a gallon. Even pickup sales, linked to the nascent housing industry, are up this year.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-03/auto-rebound-steers-u-s-economy-back-from-lehman-debacle.html

  21. 3B Buying says:

    #20 Fast: 3.60? Chase was offering 30 years at 3.375%. I am also hearing 3.25% rates too.

  22. JJ's B.S says:

    http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Damages.aspx

    bill gross is ranting in his monthly column

  23. yome says:

    Where is inventory? Everybody is waiting for 2006 prices.All you get is the “need to sell” Everyone else is waiting for their pony

  24. 3B Buying says:

    #21 Fast: That is my point! How can we go from that (1.3 GDP) to robust in one short year?

  25. Essex says:

    20. from the looks of things you want to live like gentry on an IT manager’s budget. Go figure.

  26. yome says:

    This will put a smile on your face

    “The auto recovery is still not anywhere near what anyone would expect, given the number of new drivers and the level of pent-up demand,” Swonk said in a telephone interview. “But it’s a start and not all sectors have that. There will be a big difference when people’s largest asset — their home — is moving up in value.”

  27. 3B Buying says:

    #28 Yes there will. Of course there will have to be good jobs out there for the next buyer to pay for your increasing in value house.

    There will be a big difference when people’s largest asset — their home — is moving up in value.”

  28. 3B Buying says:

    #15 And the prior 2 months wer revised down by 29k.

  29. Libtard in the City says:

    Maybe the reason car sales are doing so well is because more people than ever are being forced to live in theirs.

    As for why no inventory is available Gary? Most sellers are underwater and waiting for the rebound or people have equity, but used to have a lot more, so they too are waiting for the rebound. The defaults and short sales are all getting scooped up by investors. Which leaves you with the unintentionally double cooked pork. It’s pretty simple actually.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    Essex [27],

    How about just a house that doesn’t require a gas mask and delousing solution after a walk-through; listed at around 600K, no less. Try it yourself. All you’ll be saying is OMG, they want how much for this place? Yome said it correctly, I’m left with the need to sell crowd begging for a bailout.

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [12] I continue to be surprised you can stay in your house for over 4 years without paying the mortgage.

    I continue to be surprised by the strong contracts numbers.

  32. JJ's B.S says:

    WTF do contracts have to do with home prices.

    Oct 19 1987
    Day of Lehman Collaspe
    March 2000 Internet Bubble collapse

    all were record volume days.

    Meanwhile last 12 months volume is low but stocks are up.

    Heck I recall in 1992 and 1993 housing contracts were up as RTC and Banks were fireselling homes in bulk.

    Bottom line homes fell almost 1/3 between Spring 2006 and Spring 2011 and over last 5 months have risen 5%. Dead Cat Bounce if it was a stock.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [31] Lib – not true in Morris County, at least not true for foreclosures. They all end up as REO according to the records at the Morris County Sheriff.

    The defaults and short sales are all getting scooped up by investors.

  34. grim says:

    18 – Actually the last 5 months have shown some pretty strong price growth MOM. Big question is whether it can hold through the winter.

    These are *not* the seasonally adjusted numbers.

    S&P CS NY Metro Low Tier
    March 161.48
    April 160.81
    May 164.92
    June 168.68
    July 172.17

    Mid Tier
    March 159.47
    April 160.12
    May 161.38
    June 163.48
    July 165.26

    High Tier
    March 152.2
    April 152.44
    May 154.51
    June 157.5
    July 159.13

  35. Libtard in the City says:

    True Expat. I would argue that the counties nearer the big city are much riper for investors as they would commend the higher rents due to the proximity to the big city.

  36. grim says:

    33 – I’m not surprised, but I am jealous.

  37. grim says:

    Lib – not true in Morris County, at least not true for foreclosures. They all end up as REO according to the records at the Morris County Sheriff.

    But, they have to. Yes, they have to. Who in their right might would pay the upset price at a sherriff sale, when the upset prices are all far higher than the value of the property? The property needs to go REO, where the lender can take it’s lumps, before it is listed for sale at a more realistic valuation.

    It’s going to be a long, long time, before bidders have a reason to go back to the courthouse steps.

  38. Essex says:

    32. You have good taste. That costs $$$$. I know it. You know it.

  39. grim says:

    30y could probably add much more color to the REO discussion, but the way I see it is, the courthouse steps isn’t where the owner loses the house (the house was lost long before than), it’s where the lender bends over and prepares to take it up the hoo hah (step 1 of 2 of the mark-to-reality process). Every time you see that $100 in the sale price column, it means the outstanding debt was greater than the value of the property, so it goes back to the lender. When you see an amount greater than $100, and it’s associated with a lender other than the plaintiff, it’s the second lien holder dreaming they’ll recoup something.

  40. joyce says:

    35

    NJ Expat,

    How detailed are the records at the Morris County Sheriff’s website and do you find them reliable/updated timely?

  41. All Hype says:

    yome (22):

    Two Things about auto sales:
    1. Channel stuffing is the reason for the increased sales. More cars on the lot = more recorded sales.
    2. About 60% of new and used car sales are financed via “subprime” loans. Remember, these were the exact same people who could not afford cars 5 years ago and now they are getting loans again. People who cannot handle their finances will just take out more debt again to look for another gubbmint handout in the near future.

    So what we have will be a near repeat of the same issues in about 3 years when the auto finance bubble bursts again and GM will need another bailout and the rule of law will be thrown out the door to allow the automakers to stay in business.

  42. grim says:

    42 – They are relatively timely, but not guaranteed.

    http://www.mcsheriff.org/sales/

    If there are discrepancies, it’s more likely that they are around timing (versus parties, judgements, addresses, etc).

  43. 3B Buying says:

    #36 Grim: Then did I misread CS & Core Logic?

  44. Ragnar says:

    Fast Eddie,
    Once you expand your commute range, you can exit the lice zone, while spending less than $600k. Then start reading books on the train or listening to audo books and podcasts while driving. Sounds like you want dry aged prime location at hamburger prices, and then get irritated when the discount meat smells funny.

  45. JJ's B.S says:

    Why expand commute when you can contract commute, Bronx and Newark offer cheap homes with shot commutes.
    Just cause you hommies will be hos with tats it dont make them bad people.

    Ragnar says:
    October 3, 2012 at 9:43 am

    Fast Eddie,
    Once you expand your commute range, you can exit the lice zone, while spending less than $600k. Then start reading books on the train or listening to audo books and podcasts while driving. Sounds like you want dry aged prime location at hamburger prices, and then get irritated when the discount meat smells funny.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Ragnar [46],

    Let me try this again: I…. need…. something…. to…. actually…. bid…. on. Dropping 600K to bail someone out and then needing to rip out a kitchen and bath and then wondering if a wall can be knocked out is not an option. Again, all of you need to try this yourself and then you’ll see what I’m seeing. Most of the inventory listed are houses that nobody wants. If one comes on the market and it’s desirable, it’s “miraculously” gone before you can even bid.

  47. grim says:

    #36 Grim: Then did I misread CS & Core Logic?

    No, I’m just looking forward based on the most recent numbers.

    On a YOY basis in Aug, it was the low tier (Sub $270k) that was showing weakness. Mid tier ($270-$430k) is down 1-1.5% YOY for the past 3 months, high tier (above $430k) is down around 2-2.5% YOY for the past 3 months.

    If prices hold flat at current levels, the S&P Case Shiller should go solidly green for NY Metro around Feburary/March. This would indicate the 1 year anniversary of the “bottom”.

  48. JJ's B.S says:

    Good houses in good shape and good blocks go for near asking price to buyers who do it non-contigent upon a mortgage and can show proof of funds and can close quick and dont have a house to sell.

    I buyers hear if I can sell my house, if I can get a mortgage, if house passes inspection they zone out.

  49. grim says:

    ISM Services comes in way above estimates, 55.1 vs consensus estimates of 53.7.

  50. grim says:

    3b – Both 335 Jackson and 380 Jackson (Yellow SL and Cape) went ARIP yesterday. Is one of them you?

  51. Essex says:

    I see houses around here as two things. One a base of operations where you try to get good layout with minimal square footage. Anything else, the mini-manse, the life-style statement is a tax target. Buy under your budget. Stay as long as possible. If the schools stink then pay for private. Any Questions??

  52. Essex says:

    The second thing you want is a safe haven. If you are comfortable with the neighbors and figure you won’t find them trespassing or breaking into your place. That is worth it’s weight.

  53. 3B Buying says:

    #52 grim: Really! That fast! No, not me. Although we were considering putting a bid on the yellow cape. Missed again!! I guess I have to follow the crowd, although i don’t want to. It appears I have no choice.

  54. 3B Buying says:

    #49 grim: Thanks for the explanation. I have to pull the trigger.

  55. 3B Buying says:

    #51 grim: everything in that report was decent except the employment component, barely budged. Prices paid up, could that indicate inflation?

  56. yome says:

    Captain Sunshine on a gray day

  57. Ragnar says:

    Fast Eddie,
    I agree with your strategy if you’ve got to be where you’re looking. But there are other places where $600k buys more and there is inventory. I guess every market really is different.

  58. Jim says:

    Grim,
    Thanks for posting the Rutgers factsheet on basement moisture. I think I’m just going to use a dehumidifier and put the water directly into the sump pump.

    I’m almost finished fixing the leaks on the walls to the basement exit where the stairs go up to the garden. I’m using hydraulic cement and there are only a couple more small leaks that I found after the rain yesterday. In the next couple of days I’ll paint it with Quikrete Masonry Waterproofer. It was leaking like crazy before so I’m really happy about how it is turning out.
    Jim

  59. yome says:

    GEt your PONIES!!

    Mortgage prepayment rates have soared to the highest in seven years as homeowners take advantage of the lowest borrowing costs on record to refinance.

    Home loans were repaid in August at a pace that would erase 25 percent of the debt in a year, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. (LPS), a Jacksonville, Florida-based data provider that tracks 40 million mortgages.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-03/u-s-mortgage-prepayment-rate-reaches-highest-level-since-2005.html

  60. Fast Eddie says:

    Statler [61],

    I’d rather be dead at the intersection of 145 street and Amsterdam Avenue than alive in NC.

  61. yome says:

    Loving this headlines

    “Landlord Gains Slow as Homebuying Tops Renting”

  62. Statler Waldorf says:

    Fast Eddie, if you’re staying in NJ, then it has long been time to make a move. There have been buy opportunities out there over the last 12-24 months. At the very bottom, there will be no inventory, which is predictable.

    Know the town in which you’re looking. When you know a town well, and see a house come on them market on street X, you should be ready to make an offer before walking in the door. If you walk in and say “These $14,000 taxes are too high!” you either don’t know the town/streets well enough, or you’re not ready to buy in NJ.

    Coffee is for closers.

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [47] JJ – This is tongue-in-cheek right now, but check back in 5 or 10 years. I fully expect the employed young people and retiring boomers will both be re-urbanizing, pushing the poor out to the suburbs. I think home occupiers paying for long commutes to their expensive-to-heat properties in the far out suburbs will not be enjoying their new neighbors. Suburbia will be the new Detroit.

    Why expand commute when you can contract commute, Bronx and Newark offer cheap homes with shot commutes.
    Just cause you hommies will be hos with tats it dont make them bad people.

    Ragnar says:
    October 3, 2012 at 9:43 am

    Fast Eddie,
    Once you expand your commute range, you can exit the lice zone, while spending less than $600k. Then start reading books on the train or listening to audo books and podcasts while driving. Sounds like you want dry aged prime location at hamburger prices, and then get irritated when the discount meat smells funny.

  64. 3B Buying says:

    #67 It is already happening.

  65. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [67] Maybe we need to make a sacrifice to get things moving. How quickly would the surrounding counties improve if we legalized all vices and no longer required driver’s licenses or auto registration or auto insurance…but just in, let’s say, Hunterdon County?

  66. Libtard in the City says:

    http://www.hamiltonnational.com/

    The first 2.5% on a 15-year that I’ve found. Calling my broker today to see if he’ll match it.

  67. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’d take that on a 7 year ARM if someone would write me one with no points or closing costs for less than $100K prinicipal.

    The first 2.5% on a 15-year that I’ve found. Calling my broker today to see if he’ll match it.

  68. JJ's B.S says:

    Online zero point 15 years are 2.25%, skip the broker go to bank.

    Libtard in the City says:
    October 3, 2012 at 11:20 am

    http://www.hamiltonnational.com/

    The first 2.5% on a 15-year that I’ve found. Calling my broker today to see if he’ll match it.

  69. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I recommended LYB back in May when it was under $40 with 2.3% yield. Now it’s a recent addition to the S&P 500 trading above $52 with a 3.1% yield. It’s still a great dollar hedge too.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 4, 2012 at 11:03 am

    My new portfolio favorite LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), a specialty chemical company that is making out like a bandit due to the low price of Natural Gas. 2.3% yield now, quite a bit higher when I bought a couple months ago.

  70. grim says:

    This is tongue-in-cheek right now, but check back in 5 or 10 years. I fully expect the employed young people and retiring boomers will both be re-urbanizing, pushing the poor out to the suburbs.

    5 or 10? Have you seen what an apartment costs in NYC? In Q3 the median sales price was $890k for an apartment (median for condos was $1.2m). $1000 a square foot is the norm.

    Look around, we’ve already been pushed out, and we are the poor, now. Yeah, I know that’s a tough one to swallow.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [66] expat,

    While I agree somewhat, I think that it will depend on the city.

    Bos/NYC/Chi/Seattle/Miami? Already done. DC? Largely there. Philadelphia? Happening.

    OTOH, Detroit/LA/Dallas/Charlotte/Pheonix and a whole host of second and third tier cities? No way.

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [63] fast eddie,

    Something tells me that you wouldn’t last very long in some parts of NC anyway.

    “You got a purty mouth, boy”

  73. grim says:

    What’s the going rate for a 3 bedroom in Manhattan these days? If it’s what I think it is, god help you if you’ve got both a boy and a girl.

  74. Libtard in the City says:

    Show me the bank JJ.

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [53/54] Essex,

    Got that covered, thanks.

  76. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [72] LyondellBasell Industries N.V. manufacturers and sells chemicals and polymers, refines crude oil, produces gasoline blending components, and develops and licenses technologies for the production of polymers. LyondellBasell Industries has a market cap of $29.83 billion and is part of the basic materials sector. The company has a P/E ratio of 13.7, below the average chemicals industry P/E ratio of 14.8 and below the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.7. Shares are up 59% year to date as of the close of trading on Friday. Currently there are 12 analysts that rate LyondellBasell Industries a buy, no analysts rate it a sell, and two rate it a hold.

  77. JJ's B.S says:

    Teachers Federal Credit Union

    Libtard in the City says:
    October 3, 2012 at 11:33 am

    Show me the bank JJ.

  78. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    What do you mean “we”, Kemo Sabe?

    Look around, we’ve already been pushed out, and we are the poor, now. Yeah, I know that’s a tough one to swallow.

  79. Essex says:

    I’ve rich and I’ve been poor, and rich is definitely a heckuva lot better! But EAST COAST RICH is a whole nother ballgame

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:
  81. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [82] essex,

    A friend once said to me “It is said that money cannot buy happiness. But I’d rather be rich and unhappy than poor and miserable.”

  82. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    Oh snap! (real estate edition)

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49271964

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [74] Nom – Agreed. There has to be a core wealth of culture *and* employment in the cities or there will be no influx.

    66] expat,

    While I agree somewhat, I think that it will depend on the city.

    Bos/NYC/Chi/Seattle/Miami? Already done. DC? Largely there. Philadelphia? Happening.

    OTOH, Detroit/LA/Dallas/Charlotte/Pheonix and a whole host of second and third tier cities? No way.

  84. Libtard in the City says:

    Thanks JJ. The APR is actually 2.37, but my broker always matches. Much easier than having to drive out to strong island. They won’t even lock by fax. Let me know if you see any better. Nice find.

  85. Brian says:

    Jim:

    Condensate pump works good too. This one isnt terribly expensive and comes with the hose.

    http://www.amazon.com/Little-Giant-VCMX-20ULST-Condensate-horsepower/dp/B002MGYF3S/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1349279204&sr=8-2&keywords=condensate+pump

    60.Jim says:
    October 3, 2012 at 10:45 am
    Grim,
    Thanks for posting the Rutgers factsheet on basement moisture. I think I’m just going to use a dehumidifier and put the water directly into the sump pump.

    I’m almost finished fixing the leaks on the walls to the basement exit where the stairs go up to the garden. I’m using hydraulic cement and there are only a couple more small leaks that I found after the rain yesterday. In the next couple of days I’ll paint it with Quikrete Masonry Waterproofer. It was leaking like crazy before so I’m really happy about how it is turning out.
    Jim

  86. Brian says:

    60 –
    Jim, where do you route your sump pump line? I hate that mine leaves a puddle in the yard.

    Is there some way to route them to the storm sewer in the street?

  87. yome says:

    I am saving $71 a month on 2.37%.It will take 5 years to recoup a $5000 closing cost. Now if I can find no closing cost,no appraisal fee,I can pull the trigger on that rate.Come on HARP3

  88. Essex says:

    84. Amen. As we know around here $250k is a living wage. Anything less a year and you are simply treading water.

  89. Juice Box says:

    re: # 91 – Essex in NYC it is 500k.

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [89] brian,

    A lot of folks in the brig piped theirs to the curb or into their downspout piping if that also went to the curb. From what I recall, it is illegal to pump it directly into your sewer line, but it is perfectly legal for it to go to stormdrain–you just have to pipe it to the curb.

    You could also install a dry well but that seems a lot like recycling.

  91. grim says:

    Is there some way to route them to the storm sewer in the street?

    I needed to get engineering approval from the town to connect to the storm sewer with my front gutter leaders and sump pump.

    They initially balked at letting me pump my sump to the street (gutters were OK), because of ice hazard issues in the winter. They wanted me to install a dry well on the property, and pump to the dry well. We eventually got them to give up on the approach because the soil was too high in clay for a dry well to be effective.

    We needed to post bond with the town for road opening. We didn’t connect to the stormwater lateral directly, but to the catch basin that just happened to be at the perfect location to give us the pitch we needed. We cored through the back of the catch basin and installed a 4″ PVC pipe back to the house where we connected the leaders and sump.

    And the only reason they let us pipe the rear leaders to the curb was because the house originally had the curb cores and piping. New construction or no core? No way, Jose.

  92. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Nom:

    “Money can’t buy you happiness, but it can buy you a yacht big enough to pull up right alongside it.” David Lee Roth.

  93. Ann says:

    Cool. On top of yesterday’s news that house prices are going to go up 12% next year. Things are looking up.

  94. JJ's B.S says:

    East Coast I find amazing the amount of poor folks making 500K a year. They say making 200k to 500K is the poorest salaries. I agree.

    At that salary the next level or two of managment are making millions and have mansons, planes, servants, yachts and you CPO BMW and a split level.

    Best I felt was when I was first level supervisor making double college kids. I felt rich. Now I feel improvished.

    Essex says:
    October 3, 2012 at 11:40 am

    I’ve rich and I’ve been poor, and rich is definitely a heckuva lot better! But EAST COAST RICH is a whole nother ballgame

  95. JJ's B.S says:

    Better grieve your taxes asap, if that happens you wont have comps to support a tax greivance

    Ann says:
    October 3, 2012 at 12:12 pm

    Cool. On top of yesterday’s news that house prices are going to go up 12% next year. Things are looking up.

  96. Ann says:

    Fast Eddie, there’s inventory out there. You just don’t like any of it :)
    We did a pretend house hunt this summer in the 900s…seriously didn’t like anything. My house, which is probably worth 600, was better.
    I only started to like the houses once I hit the 1.5 million mark.

  97. Ann says:

    99 good idea!

  98. Ann says:

    97 I felt at my richest right out of college, had a job for 30K a year, bought a new Honda Civic and had my own apartment. Wow did I feel like I had hit the big time.

  99. Anon E. Moose says:

    All Hype [43];

    1. Channel stuffing is the reason for the increased sales. More cars on the lot = more recorded sales

    If you really want to see where the dealer stands, you need to see their auxilliary lot. One Chrysler dealer was storing hundreds of cars in the seldom-used lots at Belmont Racetrack all summer. I wonder how many drivers they hired to move them before and after the Stakes.

  100. Brian says:

    94 –
    Grim, I’m on a corner lot that has two catch basins. Seems like an ideal situation. I keep saying I’m going to dig a trench myself and do it but two years have gone by. Never have the time since the kids were born.

    Who does this kind of work? A plumber? General contractor?

  101. grim says:

    Depends on the town, but I don’t think that engineering would have given me approval without a licensed plumber’s stamp on the permit. They failed the first inspection because the parging in the catch basin masonry was cracked (we didn’t crack it, the thing is probably 60 years old). They also said we left it a mess (dirt and stone on the catch basin floor, huh?).

    We ended up having to go back into the catch basin, cleaning it out, power washing it, and patching up all the cracks. We got the nod the second time around. It took them like 3 months to refund my bond.

  102. JJ's B.S says:

    Sep 28, 2012 Listed (New) $585,000 — MLSLI #2530229
    Sep 14, 2005 Sold (Public Records) $878,500 — Public Records

    Wow Real Estate is back!!!

  103. Juice Box says:

    Romney and O should debate tonight using their best southern accents.

  104. Juice Box says:

    First candidate to use the word “pony” gets my vote.

  105. Brian says:

    Important Real estate news:

    There are rumors that Apple is set to launch a 7.85 inch version of the iPad.

    Are they chasing the success of the kindle fire?

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/10/03/report-apple-began-ipad-mini-mass-production-in-september/?iid=HP_LN

  106. grim says:

    Worth noting that it was my wife who argued with the town engineer about soil percolation not supporting a dry-well … and won. Really, I think they had to fall on their sword, having previously approved our application to daylight at the street (we didn’t actually need a sump, since the foundation footings and drains were actually above street level (house on a hill). We could just gravity drain right out, can’t beat that. But they changed their mind after the fact, when they came in for the back fill inspection. They probably didn’t even look at the permit. The sump was a necessary addition after the fact since we now needed to pump the water upwards into the 4″ line before it could drain to the catch basin.

    The trenching was pretty deep, I think we intersected the catchbasin about 2 feet below the road surface. It’s doable, but it’d be hard work. We needed a the backhoe on a bobcat to lift the catch basin grate off. If you dropped that thing in the hole, you’d be screwed.

  107. joyce says:

    thanks Grim

  108. Brian says:

    110 –
    I see people in my neighborhood have done both…pipe to street and below grade to catchbasin. Walking around the street with my kids in the stroller you sometimes hear the pump go off and see the water pour into the basin. Piping to street isn’t an option for me as the pump goes of quite often and my yard doesn’t really have enough pitch from where the pump exits the house over to the street.

    So who the heck do you call? I asked the plumber who installed our new bathroom but he didn’t want to be bothered. Not really the type of work he does I guess.

    I had some basement waterproofing guys quote me work for french drain (before I just did the sump pit and pump myself). They seemed like they had not done that before either. I wonder what something like that would even cost.

  109. grim says:

    We did a pretend house hunt this summer in the 900s…seriously didn’t like anything. My house, which is probably worth 600, was better.

    I always put the magic number around $750k or so. Criteria being a nice 3/4br (2500sqft), older, updated chc, updated all around, needing nothing (roof, siding, boiler, windows, driveway, landscaping all newer), maybe mid-grade finishes all around, some high-end embellishments, fresh paint, nothing to do.

    I know it sounds pretentious as hell to say it. But you get much more for your money paying a million than you do paying half a million. Rationale is always the price of the dirt, of course. When you are paying $500k for a house, you are really paying $400k for the dirt, and a $100k for the house. When you pay $800k, you are still paying that $400k for the dirt, but you now have a $400k house, which goes much, much further.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume in PA says:

    [111] Brian.

    Any landscaping you need watered? Pipe it to a bed and put on a diffuser.

    Or go nompound and build an underground cistern. Or a moat.

  111. Essex says:

    Tonight’s debate should be an absolute riot. I hope Obama wears the purple lipstick as that always makes him look extra weird.

  112. Essex says:

    Romney should appear in a toga.

  113. grim says:

    The guys in engineering were vehement about it, sump to sanitary sewer deserved a death sentence, sump to street was only half as bad, sump to sewer was a touch better, as it kept the water off the road in the winter. But what they really wanted was a dry well, and if you’ve got a dry well, might as well send your leaders there as well. The rationale made sense, my stormwater runoff is someone elses flooding problem, I can understand that.

    In my defense, the house was built with leaders to the street, so don’t tell me I no longer have that option, unless you tell everyone in the neighborhood. And I’d gladly spend the couple of thousand on a dry well, but only if it will work, and it won’t. I’d need to go so deep that I’d be sending rainwater straight into the aquifer, and I’m sure that’s an even worse option.

  114. Brian says:

    116 –
    I hate the idea of a dry well. Seems like you’d be pumping water in a circle forever.

  115. JJ's B.S says:

    Vagisel or KY helps a dry well

    116 –
    I hate the idea of a dry well. Seems like you’d be pumping water in a circle forever.

  116. Ann says:

    Actually, that’s interesting, because I did like the stuff that was around 750 more than the stuff around 900-1mil, even if it meant we would have had to renovate a little bit. Seemed like a better value. The houses priced around 1 mil were people who either wanted you to pay for all of their stupid Tuscan renovations or were old and smelly, just bigger.

    I agree with you on the 500 number. It’s just a rough price range, even now, in a lot of towns. Might even be better off going lower and fixing a few things yourself and possibly changing your criteria a bit.

  117. Ann says:

    118 So does actually liking the person you are with.

  118. grim says:

    Might even be better off going lower and fixing a few things yourself and possibly changing your criteria a bit.

    Much better deals available if you have a capability/capacity to renovate. I’m not talking about adding levels, blowing out great rooms, massive reconstruction. I’m talking redoing the kitchen, maybe taking down a load bearing wall to open up the main floor, redoing the baths. Potentially the good ol’ exterior trifecta (roof, windows, siding). You might need a few weeks before you could move in, but even if you couldn’t, there is nothing stopping you from living through the remodel.

    $500k property + $150k renovation > $650k house

  119. grim says:

    That’s why I love the smell of cabbage, green shag, and orange wall paper, old dirty baths, slimy grout, stained toilets, 55 years of filth ground into the floors, overgrown landscaping, etc.

    These are all defects that are easily repaired, and you can do it exactly how you want. You get to pick the tile, you get to pick the fixtures, the cabinets, countertops, etc. Getting it for less than the crapbox up the street? That’s just icing.

  120. grim says:

    I suppose the other issue is actually having the capital to fund the renovation…

  121. Juice Box says:

    re# 124 – It is still on the sidelines.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2

  122. chicagofinance says:

    What I heard on Bloomberg a few weeks ago is that literally people haven’t bought cars in several years and they current ones are wearing/worn out…..it is a mandate, not discretionary…..

    Libtard in the City says:
    October 3, 2012 at 9:05 am
    Maybe the reason car sales are doing so well is because more people than ever are being forced to live in theirs.

  123. chicagofinance says:

    Q to the board…..if you were asked about disposing of a car, short of reselling it, or trading it in for another, what would you do? I am being told it has enough defects that the person could not offer it up in an arms-length transation in good conscience….

  124. joyce says:

    Juice, it is my opinion that the money is sitting on the sidelines to weather the storm for current/future losses that have yet to be recognized… and that ultimately that money will never come into the economy; it will simply vanish just as it was created. Poof

    I merely posted that article as another opinion.

  125. 3B Buying says:

    #128 Fordham Univ has a program where you can donate old cars and get the tax decuction. They will pick them up too.

  126. Ragnar says:

    Anybody buying a house should try to have at least 5% of the cost of the house in reserve for surprises, and unplanned capital improvements. Unless you’re a super DIYer like some of our board commenters.

    We have spent at least $200k in improvements planned and unplanned over 2.5 yrs. Landscaping, to my surprise, is the real killer, though we could have done without nearly all of it.

  127. chicagofinance says:

    Also….any recommendations for a kids sports magazine….my son is going to turn 6….SI Kids?

  128. JJ's B.S says:

    CarMax, Cash for Cars type places, donation, junk yard, ebay, some garages near me sell lemon cars for customers on consignment. My sister took plates off car, left it at mechanic with for sale sign and he sold it for her. He took $1,000 of sales price as commission. Of course he had headache of selling it and when people come back with problems.

    What kind of defects? If it is fixable short term fix and sell. Like my old benz has a big rust holes in floorboards, Want to sell in spring. Plan on having it welded in a patch, covering in black tar on bottom and putting carpet back on top, it should hold for another ten years. That is ok to do. But I would not go as far as to put sawdust in tranny etc. Other car I was selling I put junk yard parts on. You have to know what is worth fixing and what is not worth fixing.

    Stalling and Check Engine Light things or safety issues I would not sell to someone. Aint like I fixed a rust hole, someone could get hurt.

    chicagofinance says:
    October 3, 2012 at 2:57 pm

    Q to the board…..if you were asked about disposing of a car, short of reselling it, or trading it in for another, what would you do? I am being told it has enough defects that the person could not offer it up in an arms-length transation in good conscience….

  129. Fabius Maximus says:

    Always fun. I got a 93% match.
    http://www.isidewith.com

  130. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [101] Ann – That was me exactly. My brand new 1984 Honda CRX was completely paid off in one year and my rent was $300. But then again, I felt rich in summer 1980 when I had a 40 hour/week job at $4/hour, $80 rent and a paid off 1970 Fiat Spider convertible.

    97 I felt at my richest right out of college, had a job for 30K a year, bought a new Honda Civic and had my own apartment. Wow did I feel like I had hit the big time.

  131. JJ's B.S says:

    Car has to be used by Fordham to get full tax deduction, otherwise you only can write off $500 bucks. But remember, if you are in 30% tax bracket that only saves you $150 bucks, junk yards pay more. Better just to put it on ebay as an As Is car.

    Also As Is cars sell more with a valid inspection sticker. My mechanic dicked me and did not pass my benz last month. Without sticker I cant park on street and test drive it. It also is a huge red flag if car cant pass inspection. Also my odometer is broken. I got to get that fixed or car gets labled milage unknown. Another red flag.

    If it has insurance leave it in the bronx with keys in igniton and see what happens.

    3B Buying says:
    October 3, 2012 at 3:00 pm

    #128 Fordham Univ has a program where you can donate old cars and get the tax decuction. They will pick them up too.

  132. Libtard in the City says:

    “$500k property + $150k renovation > $650k house”

    Very similar to our move.

    425K property + 50K renovation resulted in a 550K appraisal from our bank.

    Nothing in the 475K range comes even remotely close. Gutted kitchen, knocked down a couple walls and gutted 2 bathrooms. Also sheetrocked two bedroom ceilings and did some nice crown in them as well. 50K included all material and appliances.

    I thank the lord daily that we didn’t increase our offers on any of the other houses that were significantly inferior yet significantly more expensive than ours.

  133. JJ's B.S says:

    Love the fun stuff we will have to deal with in three months.

    The 10% tax bracket disappears, and is replaced by 15%
    25% bracket goes to 28%
    28% to 31%
    33% to 36%
    35% to 39.6%
    Lapse of the AMT exemption patch
    Return of itemized deduction and personal exemption phase-outs
    New Medicare tax, an additional 0.9% on wages above $200,000 for singles, $250,000 for marrieds
    Unearned Income Medicare Contribution Tax, part of “Obamacare”, 3.8% tax that applies to the lesser of “net investment income” or the excess of adjusted gross income (AGI) over $200,000 single, $250,000 married
    Expiration of child tax credit (goes back to $500 per child under age 16, from $1,000
    Lapse of qualified dividend tax treatment — tax on qualified dividends goes from long-term capital gains rate, to taxpayers ordinary income tax rate. Increase in long-term capital gains tax rate, from 0% for those in the current 10% or 15% brackets to 10%; to 20% in the 25% bracket or higher
    Expiration of the payroll tax cut. Employees’ share of FICA will increase from 4.2% to 6.2%

  134. yome says:

    They dont have to deal with the fiscal cliff before Jan 1.They can always deal with it after Jan 1 and amend,the result will be the same, except for the uncertainties.It will be nice if they get it done before Jan 1.

  135. Essex says:

    136. Circa 1993….Let’s see…a Masters Degree free and clear, a 76 914 paid for, and a new girlfriend (future wife). Living in FL working for a Fortune 100 firm (Fortune 500 then).

    I think it was our $500 a month sushi habit that really put a dent in the disposable income though….

  136. Essex says:

    132. For you? Teen Vogue.

  137. JJ's B.S says:

    1993 was a great year for me. I had a crappy job while my buddy had a job as a trader that was extremely stressful. Had a coop, mercedes, hamptons share, three girlfriends, went to Aspen and Miami during winter and had a paid off MBA. Debt was starting to mount as apparantly sking in Aspen, spring break in Miami and summering in Hamptons on 43K a year is harder than it looks. But lucky car accident lawsuit and I was back in the black!! Trader friend was pissed. I said good looks and luck beats hard work any day of week. He had a nervous break down from stress around 33 and is now a school teacher making peanuts. AHH 1993.

    Essex says:
    October 3, 2012 at 3:56 pm

    136. Circa 1993….Let’s see…a Masters Degree free and clear, a 76 914 paid for, and a new girlfriend (future wife). Living in FL working for a Fortune 100 firm (Fortune 500 then).

    I think it was our $500 a month sushi habit that really put a dent in the disposable income though…

  138. Juice Box says:

    What is that treaty called again? NATO

    “Turkish forces shelled targets inside Syria immediately after Syrian mortar rounds killed five people in a Turkish border town Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office said in a statement later in the day.”

    “Western officials, from Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO secretary-general, to Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, quickly condemned the attack that struck a house in the border town of Akcakale.

    Clinton said the White House was “outraged” by the “very dangerous situation” created by the attack.

    Ankara has agreed to convene an urgent meeting of NATO members in Brussels to discuss the shelling. The meeting of NATO ambassadors falls under Aritce 4 of the NATO charter which provides for consultations when a member state feels its territorial integrity, political independence or security is under threat.”

  139. Juice Box says:

    Boooooo!

    snip: “For the first time ever, the Presidential Debate Commission, which runs the show, gave the candidates a list of the topics that will come up in the first debate, virtually ensuring that nothing unexpected goes down. The result will almost inevitably be another debate without any actual debate. “

  140. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I almost did that in 1986 with an ’83 Renault 18i (that my GF bought new while I was out of town) . Instead I actually drove it until about 1990 and sold it for $800 to a guy who liked them so much he already had two of them. The same guy called me up a few times to pay me to do jobs I knew how to do on those stupid cars. One time his wife’s car needed an expensive shifter cable for her automatic. There was one in the junkyard that I helped him pull parts from a few times, but the car was sitting on top of all this other car refuse, no way to get underneath it. We got out a small hydraulic jack and kept jacking and jacking the car using junk yard wheels to prop it up higher and higher until we finally got the wagon flipped completely on it’s side and then we could take the tranny cable off easily and safely.

    If it has insurance leave it in the bronx with keys in igniton and see what happens.

  141. Essex says:

    145.

    I had an au pair and another chick on my line and I met my wife. Dating was very fruitful at that point. Was in the same income space that you mentioned. Met wife and the other chicks for pushed to the side. A Winner, big time. Someone you will never met again. That was it baby. Twenty years almost.

  142. Essex says:

    Damn Grim! Get an edit feature on this here blog,

  143. Essex says:

    -19 93 I was in a pretty cushy space. Basically pushing tons of tech product out. Business was ballooning faster than any0ne could imagine. Blue skies!!

  144. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [149] Essex – 1990 I developed an engineering approach to a dating system that was stress-free with great yield. Friday nights I devoted to meeting girls, Saturday dating them and Tuesday nights calling the numbers I’d gotten the previous Friday. In short order I found myself dating 8 girls and I hadn’t even lied to any of them…yet. Then I crashed a Belmar Halloween party to try to meet the friend of the girl I dated the night before. The girl I was looking for never showed, but my future wife did. In the ensuing weeks I had so many conversations with myself that started, “Do you really want to give this life up?”

    I had an au pair and another chick on my line and I met my wife. Dating was very fruitful at that point. Was in the same income space that you mentioned. Met wife and the other chicks for pushed to the side. A Winner, big time. Someone you will never met again. That was it baby. Twenty years almost.

  145. JJ's B.S says:

    My 3 1993 girls were a good looking super rich chick, a younger naive big boobed girl with only a HS degree, a very hot hot blue collar girl without a nickle to her name and student debt.
    Plan was to stretch out dating super rich girl for 5-6 years before I got engaged. All was going well until I told rich girl I was staying in and then went out and at three am got caught rapping to some chick in a bar by her friend. Absolutely nothing happened. Yet it all fell apart. What is morale of story none. After rich girl was gone the other two were boring so I stopped seeing them. Worst was I ran into one a few months later and she started seeing other guys and got date raped and had to get an HIV test and somehow implied it was my fault. Rich girl got knocked up by a guy then married and turned out she had a special needs kid, hot blue collar girl ended up marrying a dead broke guy and basically lives in a shack. Supposedly all three events I am blamed for. In retrospect 1993 was not a good year for all my ladies.

    Essex says:
    October 3, 2012 at 4:30 pm

    145.

    I had an au pair and another chick on my line and I met my wife. Dating was very fruitful at that point. Was in the same income space that you mentioned. Met wife and the other chicks for pushed to the side. A Winner, big time. Someone you will never met again. That was it baby. Twenty years almost.

  146. Ann says:

    You usually always have to paint the walls and deal with floors, no matter what you buy or how old it is. If the kitchen and bathrooms are functional, you can update over the next couple of years. Same for landscaping.

    That’s why I love the smell of cabbage, green shag, and orange wall paper, old dirty baths, slimy grout, stained toilets, 55 years of filth ground into the floors, overgrown landscaping, etc.

    These are all defects that are easily repaired, and you can do it exactly how you want. You get to pick the tile, you get to pick the fixtures, the cabinets, countertops, etc. Getting it for less than the crapbox up the street? That’s just icing.

  147. JJ's B.S says:

    I used to use Monday to Thursday for numbers and Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays for dates. I used your crashing technique between girls in order not to go home. With no cell phone or way to contact me only home number was an issue. I go right from one girls house to next. Other technique was the car swap. I owned two. Sometimes borrow my brothers. Did not want to get caught if they saw my car. The car swap elevated to the car borrow. Took one girl out Friday night stayed over, had to go home on Saturday night to do something so I asked to borrow her car, then I used her car on the date figuring no way to get caught as I took GFs car so she cant go out. Then her friend last minute invites her out and I get caught on a date in my Gfs car. Somehow my friends said it was not a good idea. I thought it was. Funniest thing was when she jumped in front of car screaming and I explained I was returning car to you when I stopped at bar that had my favorite beer when I ran into an old co-worker who has a medical issue and I have to go right now before she has a siezer. I jump into car take off, date asks who was the crazy women screaming at you. I go I dont know it is NY at three am all the crazies come out.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    October 3, 2012 at 4:45 pm

    [149] Essex – 1990 I developed an engineering approach to a dating system that was stress-free with great yield. Friday nights I devoted to meeting girls, Saturday dating them and Tuesday nights calling the numbers I’d gotten the previous Friday. In short order I found myself dating 8 girls and I hadn’t even lied to any of them…yet. Then I crashed a Belmar Halloween party to try to meet the friend of the girl I dated the night before. The girl I was looking for never showed, but my future wife did. In the ensuing weeks I had so many conversations with myself that started, “Do you really want to give this life up?

  148. hughesrep says:

    128

    I knew a guy that drove his beat up old car to the Newark airport, took the plates off and left it in the economy lot. The car did have an out of state registration, so maybe that’s why he never heard another word about it.

  149. JJ's B.S says:

    But did he report it stolen. Easy to dump a car. In NY junk yards pay for right to pick up abandoned cars so city likes it. Dumping a car and reporting is stolen is a felony.
    hughesrep says:
    October 3, 2012 at 5:15 pm

    128

    I knew a guy that drove his beat up old car to the Newark airport, took the plates off and left it in the economy lot. The car did have an out of state registration, so maybe that’s why he never heard another word about it.

  150. Fabius Maximus says:

    #52 grim

    I’m in that muncipal complex about once a month and I have never noticed the houses. I think the houses are elevated above it enough that they look over it and view down to the lake on the other side of Pascack Road.

  151. Ernest Money says:

    juice (147)-

    Even worse, the questions were composed by the Bilderberg Society.

    Personally, I wouldn’t watch a debate unless the questions were being asked with the candidates being held at gunpoint.

    “For the first time ever, the Presidential Debate Commission, which runs the show, gave the candidates a list of the topics that will come up in the first debate, virtually ensuring that nothing unexpected goes down. The result will almost inevitably be another debate without any actual debate. “

  152. Ernest Money says:

    Ever get the funny feeling that there’s no difference between these two dolts running for prez?

  153. Libtard at home says:

    Nothing that we don’t know already will come out in these debates. The same talking points that you can read in 99% of the comments sections on the internet will be repeated by these two crooks tonight. Would rather watch my dog take a dump. Baa, baa.

  154. Libtard at home says:

    Gator urged me to turn on the debate. I know who I am voting for. Obomney! Baa, baa.

  155. Brian says:

    I can’t stop looking at Obama’s ears. They are huge. That’s one big difference between the candidates.

  156. Ernest Money says:

    Please make these two idiots shut up. Please.

  157. Ernest Money says:

    When does Grandma’s death panel convene?

  158. njescapee says:

    Wake Up America, We Are Being Distracted From the Real Issues by MSM Lackeys
    t’s time to wake up, America.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-10-03/wake-america-we-are-being-distracted-real-issues-msm-lackeys

    The mainstream media is attempting once again to draw the public’s opinion towards issues that are ultimately fringe issues that impact a small percentage of us in order to ignore the large-scale major issues that affect all of us.

    When I saw mainstream media, I am referring to any major media outlet, including satirical quasi-political shows such as the Daily Show. All of these shows, op-eds, media appearances are in fact one colossal game meant to draw our attention away from what matters to items that don’t really matter all that much.

    Now, before you get angry at me, let’s try and work our way rationally through how things actually work in the US.

    For starters, ask yourself the following:

    Which affects you more, the fact a particular candidate voted for a particular bill in the past, or the fact that our entire monetary system is run by a man who none of us voted for and who has systemically worked to debase the value of the currency in our pockets while raising the cost of living?

    What matters more to the US, whether or not homosexuals can get married or the fact that all of us are married to a financial system in which all of us shoulder the debts of Wall Street and the banks, thereby insuring that our country will eventually face a debt crisis resulting is most if not all of us losing a major percentage of our wealth?

    Which is more important for our well-being, whether or a certain candidate paid his taxes or the fact that we are all of us being taxed by inflation which decreases our purchasing power, making all of us much poorer?

    My point with all of this is that politics in this country is in fact a grand distraction to draw our attention away from those who actually call the shots in the US (the Fed and banking elites) by hitting our “emotional” buttons and getting us worked up about peripheral issues so we don’t wake up and realize that we’re being robbed every single day of our lives by individuals who we never even voted for.

    “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws”

    ~Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

    The reason the media shies away from these topics is because the talking heads have all gotten rich by doing so. John Stewart, hilarious champion of the left made $15 million last year. His net worth is close to $80 million. His arch nemesis, Bill O’Reilly, made $20 million and is worth somewhere in the ballpark of $50 million.

    Wake up people, these folks don’t represent you. You won’t make as much money as they make in one year in your entire lifetime. You have absolutely nothing in common with them.

    Why? Because they’re muppets who appeal to our vanity by espousing opinions similar to our own. The end result is that we watch them and feel they’re on “our side,” when in reality they’re just lackeys who have gotten rich by distracting the masses from the real power structure: the Fed and the Primary Dealer banking system.

    “The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it’s profits or so dependent on it’s favors, that there will be no opposition from that class.”

    ~Rothschild Brothers of London, 1863

    Think about this one for a moment… the US debt is now $16 trillion. The largest owner of this debt is the US Federal Reserve. So when we pay taxes to pay the interest on the debt, it goes to guess who?

    Haven’t heard that one discussed anywhere in the media have you?

    How about this? Ben Bernanke pumped god knows how much money into the financial system during the 2008 Crisis. The chief of oversight at the Fed admitted that even the Fed doesn’t know where hundreds of billions of Dollars went. And they’re not going to investigate where it went either.

    Did you get some of that money? Nope. The banks did though. But you won’t hear that during the Presidential debates or any of the various spin-based political talk shows.

    However, there is hope. Both the newspaper and the mainstream news media have seen their readership/ viewership tank as more and more people realize that these folks don’t actually report anything; they just distract us from the real “game” being played. One can only hope that people actually put their knowledge to work and begin demanding real change, not as a political punchline, but as a systemic overhaul of a system none of us actually voted for in the first place.

    This is after all supposed to be a Democracy, isn’t it?

    Swing by http://www.gainspainscapital.com for more market commentary, investment strategies, and several FREE reports devoted to help you navigate the coming economic and capital market changes safely.

    Graham Summers

  159. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    “Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself.”

    John Adams.

  160. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    [148] expat,

    I think the most I got up to was about 5 at one time. But btwn working full time and law school, I had no time for a harem. And a few of them were from law school, so discretion was a must.

  161. Very Nice! Interesting, clear and precise. I like this one grim.

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