Sprawl and lattes … discuss.

Good stuff over at NJ Spotlight:

The Real Jersey Comeback

Analysts, developers, and academicians all saw hopeful signs, however faint, for New Jersey’s economy and housing market, but told a state conference in Atlantic City that the highly suburbanized state is poorly adjusted for longer-term changes.

Attendees at the Governor’s Conference on Housing and Economic Development heard a sprinkling of numbers that should bring comfort — although not joy — to Gov. Chris Christie and President Barack Obama.

Hughes pointed to “transformative” demographic changes that should shape policy in housing and elsewhere. Some fallout already is apparent in the office market, he said. Hughes pointed to formerly “iconic” exurban business campuses like the now vacant BASF building in the Mt. Olive foreign trade zone, or Merck’s Whitehouse Station headquarters, being phased out for a reconsolidation to Summit.

Those sort of sprawling business centers are rapidly becoming relics, “along with the McMansions and starter-castles scattered across our countryside,” Hughes said.

Transportation costs, salary pressures, the sparseness of surrounding communities. and changes in personnel priorities are all pushing against the suburban patterns that have reshaped America since World War II, he said.

That is particularly a challenge in a state generally considered with Connecticut as the most suburbanized in the nation. Such state rankings can vary by population, land area or other factors, but as Newgeography.com put it last year, “New Jersey virtually defines suburbanization in the United States.”

Just as significantly, the rising “millennial” generation born after 1977 is burdened by student debt, and the poor job climate is more attracted to urban areas with cheaper housing and nearby amenities, Hughes said. For purposes of the housing market, they also could be labeled the “Renter Generation,” he said.

“One of the big questions is qualifying for a mortgage,” agreed Peter Reinhardt, president of the Kislak Real Estate Institute at Monmouth, sharing a panel with Hughes. Mortgage borrowing standards have become tougher, and some lenders are far less active, than before the recession, he said. He cited a recent study by the John Burns Consulting Group of San Diego that the number of first-time home buyers had dropped 20 percent in three years.

“Federal student loans now account for about 18 percent of all consumer credit” outstanding, equivalent to 6 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, he said.

But as baby boomers speaking to an audience largely of similar age, Reinhart and others were not entirely inclined to let the younger generation off the hook for its economic predicament.

While their parents were generally in better financial shape at the same age, some of that is millennials finding other ways to dispose of their money, Reinhardt said, “gym memberships, premium cable TV, iPhones, iPhone apps, and most importantly, the cost of a latte.”

Many of America’s cities are already coming back from the doldrums of the late 20th Century, but in a place like New Jersey, “remaking the suburbs is going to be the greatest revitalization project we have ever seen.”

Again, various panel discussions anticipated him. Otteau surprised many in his audience by pointing out that only 30 percent of the state’s households now have children living at home. That figure drops when scanned for two-parent households.

That is another demographic change that undermines the suburban development pattern that has marched across New Jersey, according to Hughes. While well suited for a boom in child-rearing by parents in a stable economy, sprawl is less suited to current times, he said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

108 Responses to Sprawl and lattes … discuss.

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    RE/MAX: Housing recovery is the real deal

    According to a RE/MAX National Housing report, both home sales and home prices have continued at higher levels than last year. September’s median home price was higher for the eighth consecutive month than the previous year.

    Median prices increased 7.8% from September 2011. Home sales followed their usual seasonal pattern and dropped lower than the levels seen in August, however they maintained a level of 0.5% higher that sales last year. Inventory was 29.1% lower than September of 2011, which might have contributed to the drop in sales from August. In addition to lower inventories creating bidding wars in some markets, they also have increased prices.

    Margaret Kelly, the CEO of RE/MAX said, “Now that the summer buying season is behind us, we can clearly see that the market made a significant rebound, and 2012 is definitely the year of the housing recovery. Although we still face some serious obstacles in tight lending and shrinking inventory, we believe that the housing market will continue to recover into 2013.”

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    Housing Starts up big. See Gary, all is well in America!

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/10/housing-starts-increased-sharply-to-872.html

    I would like to see completions also rise in 6-12 months to prove that there is actually a recovery. If not then it’s just people digging holes in the ground.

  4. grim says:

    I think the definition of suburb isn’t quite static, depending on the geographical regions we’re talking about. If we lay out a radius around the core city (cities), what is urban, what is semi-urban, what is suburban, what is exurban?

    Putting, say, a 25 mile radius around NYC gets us out to Mahwah, Suffern, Parsippany, Greenwich, Syosset, Plainfield, etc. This is a relatively large area that encompasses most of Northeastern NJ. When we add additional radii to the mid for all of the second tier cities we get a strongly overlapped area that I’d argue is essentially one large megopolis. It doesn’t take but a few more miles added to the definition to start connecting everything from Boston to DC.

    I suppose the argument I’m making here is that you don’t need a skyscraper to define a city, nor does a 75×100 lot and a 2 car garage define a suburb.

  5. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    U.S. mortgage applications fall 4.2 percent; purchase demand up: MBA

    Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week, but demand for purchase loans, a leading indicator of home sales, reached the highest level since June, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 4.2 percent in the week ended October 12.

    The seasonally adjusted purchase index, which measures loan requests for home purchases, increased by 1 percent over the previous week, putting the index at its highest level since June.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    All Hype [3],

    This past Sunday, I scoured 3 websites and the newspaper looking for open houses to attend praying to find something to possibly bid on. I found 2 houses. That’s it. Two houses. Everything else was obscure, main street fodder, over-priced and not worth considering. 1 of the 2 houses had the potential for a bid. I’m waiting for some details before possibly putting a bid on it. There’s no inventory right now worth considering. None. People are still dreaming for a score on the very little that is listed.

  7. NJGator says:

    Oh, Montclair…

    Township Releases Report Criticizing Montclair Parking Authority and Revealing $200K in Missing Bills

    Last week, in a story about the Montclair Parking Authority (MPA) under investigation by the New Jersey State Commission on Investigation (NJSCI), we reported that former township manager Joseph Hartnett was hired by the Township through his consulting firm ETI Management, LLC to evaluate the operation of the MPA. Hartnett’s report was released yesterday and it reveals missing utility bills amounting to $200,000 and harsh criticism of the the authority’s procedures.
    This report states it was done in a “collaboration between ETI Management, LLC, and the auditors for the Township government of Montclair—McEnerny, Brady, & Co.” and focuses mainly on the time frame from the inception of the Montclair Parking Authority near the end of 2002 until May of 2012.
    The report criticizes the MPA for the following “deficiencies” in standard controls and operating procedures for a unit of government/public agency:
    No written procedures or policies of any kind were found to exist, most particularly of note in the areas of budget and financial controls, purchasing, and human resources management, nor is there any evidence that anyone ever asked for same.
    No training or professional orientation has ever been provided for staff (nor for the Board, for that matter) in any area, including job duties and responsibilities, financial practices, purchasing/contracting, or professional development, particularly for those staff handling and managing the finances. The Montclair Parking Authority has been a “learn as you go” operation.
    The bookkeeping system that has been in place has not been fully utilized or tied in to controls normally associated with units of government, such as for budget development and tracking, purchasing, and outstanding obligations.
    No formal financial controls have been in place; no system of materials requisitions; no use of purchase orders unless required/requested by a vendor; no system of encumbrances; no formal budget controls. Budget management has consisted of a manual Excel spreadsheet kept by the Executive Director −staff has had no role in the development of the budget or in ensuring it is complied with.
    No human resources system has been in place; no personnel records/files; no salary guides; no pension/benefit records; no hiring or promotional guidelines or policies; no employee handbook or written guidelines.
    The most important finding in the report, aside from the criticisms on how the MPA has been operating, is the finding of at least $200K of missing bills from two parking decks:
    Until just a few months ago, the commissioners of the Authority were unaware of three years worth of unpaid utility bills for one deck that had amounted to approximately $100,000; the validity of this debt was confirmed and payment was made, although this occurrence distorted budget history and represented a significant unexpected expense to the current year’s budget. Additionally, there still remains a concern about missing utility bills for another deck, which staff thinks might exceed $100,000. All of this occurred under questionable circumstances in the absence of a proper tracking/reporting system, although certain corrective measures (e.g., a viable cash flow reporting and projection worksheet) have recently been implemented.
    In closing, the report states, “It should always be remembered that the interests of the taxpayers, the community-at-large, and the operation of the parking system are inextricably intertwined and this fact should give the parking situation the seriousness it deserves and the attention that it sorely needs.” It goes on to say, “There is a strong need to impose order on the parking system in Montclair − a need for rationalization and consistency in rules, regulations, and rates and to clearly and effectively communicate same to customers.”

    http://www.baristanet.com/2012/10/township-releases-report-criticizing-montclair-parking-authority-and-revealing-200k-in-missing-bills/

  8. Grim says:

    More fulfilling to sit around talking about bike paths than actually run a city.

  9. yome says:

    70% of households paying for little Johnnie’s overpriced education

    “Otteau surprised many in his audience by pointing out that only 30 percent of the state’s households now have children living at home. That figure drops when scanned for two-parent households.”

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Regardless of what is said, the reality is that Germany has used the Eurozone initiatives to effect a economic imperialization campaign against the rest of the continent. As opposed to WWII, they will be in complete control without concern of maintaining their gains through the military……basically Germany will have its Reichland with UN/US millitary backing……only London saw enough to avoid this plague…..but they have their own self-inflicted problems…..and they are bunch of alcoholics anyway…..

    Ernest Money says:
    October 17, 2012 at 6:38 am
    The PIIGs don’t love Germany back. And, if (really, when) the average German asserts his will- which will either happen at the ballot box or in the streets- it’s game over.
    I still think it’s Germany that exits the Urrpzone and leaves the sick wildebeests to die.

  11. Juice Box says:

    One reason to be glad NJ is not really a contested state for Congress or President this election season.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/us/politics/never-to-be-outdone-vegas-sets-record-for-political-ads.html

  12. freedy says:

    47 million on food stamps . how many in the NJ suburban areas ,which is most of NJ?

  13. JJ's B.S says:

    Most people have to pay for them and there is no such thing as food stamps. They have been in a credit/debit card form for years. They days of people on online having to pull stamps out for all to see are all over.

    Lets bring back shoplifting and dumpster diving for food.

    freedy says:
    October 17, 2012 at 1:08 pm

    47 million on food stamps . how many in the NJ suburban areas ,which is most of NJ?

  14. Brian says:

    I’m thinking of signing up for foodstamps. If you can’t beat ’em…join ’em.

  15. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>Most people have to pay for them and there is no such thing as food stamps. They have been in a credit/debit card form for years. They days of people on online having to pull stamps out for all to see are all over.

    Lets bring back shoplifting and dumpster diving for food.

    freedy says:
    October 17, 2012 at 1:08 pm

    47 million on food stamps . how many in the NJ suburban areas ,which is most of NJ?<<<

    Well, I'm just glad these lazy ass 47 percenters are forced to use a damn debit card for their damn benefits. At least there's a damn record what the hell they're spending this damn money on and one day soon, we might have the damn ability to block certain purchases and force them to do their all of their damn shopping at an approved store. Setting that crap up took a lot of damn time and JP Morgan deserves every damn cent they're getting by managing all of this plastic. Hell, maybe one day they'll open a damn company owned store were these lazy asses can go to buy the damn food. THE ONLY THING GOOD ABOUT THESE DAMN PEOPLE BEING ON FOOD STAMPS IS THAT IT'S ME MAKING SOME DAMN MONEY THROUGH MY DAMN STOCK IN JP MORGAN SINCE THEY HAVE TO USE A DAMN DEBIT CARD. So hell yeah, these damn people being out of a job is stimulating my damn pocket. So I hate and love the 47%—I just need my damn taxes cut so I don't have to pay for them.

  16. Juice Box says:

    The Food stamp number is shocking 47 million wow. So was 32 million back when GWB was running the show. Romney really should have gone elsewhere, since all his did was PO the recipients. There are a huge amount of food stamp recipients in swing state Ohio that vote. Fact is seventy of Ohio’s 88 counties now have more than 25 percent of their residents that are eligible for emergency food. Lots and lots of poor families many rural too, Walmart shoppers.

  17. Juice Box says:

    re # 10 – German’s believe Schadenfreude is the only true joy. Right now they are very happy I guess.

  18. Mike says:

    17 Holy Sh*t “But they only recovered $4.7 million, or about 0.2% of the $2.1 billion owed, the report said.” And in another couple of years they will be able to apply for another mortgage?

  19. Libtard at 36,000 Feet says:

    I’m on my way to Vegas which may be my last hoorah for a while as the second libtard spawn is due in under 60 days. I praise Gator for allowing it to happen. Hopefully I’ll come home with a win. Unlike the Steinbrenners, who seem well on their way to having blown another 187 million dollars. Baby needs a new pair of shoes and some food stamps.

  20. JJ's B.S says:

    Should I buy or sell the stock of the casino you plan on gambling at?

    Libtard at 36,000 Feet says:
    October 17, 2012 at 2:07 pm

    I’m on my way to Vegas which may be my last hoorah for a while as the second libtard spawn is due in under 60 days. I praise Gator for allowing it to happen. Hopefully I’ll come home with a win. Unlike the Steinbrenners, who seem well on their way to having blown another 187 million dollars. Baby needs a new pair of shoes and some food stamps.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A German friend of mine, now living in Berlin, was in town a couple weeks ago. I asked him whether Greece or Germany would leave the Euro first? He said that Germany would be the first to make a “preemptive exit”.

    Ernest Money says:
    October 17, 2012 at 6:38 am
    The PIIGs don’t love Germany back. And, if (really, when) the average German asserts his will- which will either happen at the ballot box or in the streets- it’s game over.
    I still think it’s Germany that exits the Urrpzone and leaves the sick wildebeests to die.

  22. Libtard at 36,000 Feet says:

    JJ,

    I wouldn’t touch any casino stock for a long while. Not with every city with a population above 200K planning on opening one. Actually, you should probably short Caesars. They are flying me 1st class, limo from the airport (which I declined) and putting me up in a suite (most likely) in the Augustus Tower for 5 nights. They also threw in $500 in resort credit. I earned this trip through that uncommonly amazing run I had a few months back in Reno. Though, I do not plan on gambling at Caesars at all. There is little full-pay video poker on the strip and the comp rate for what there is leaves me at a disadvantage. I concentrate most of my play at Boyd properties where I can eke out a .1-.7% edge not counting comps. The comps, which consist mainly of booze and crappy rooms, are really not worth much. The real impetus for this trip is to attend TAIcon. This Ain’t Iowa is a degenerate podcast that I’ve been following for the past half a decade. It’s absolutely hilarious and the TAI family are really great. We get together every year and bet on a lot of stupid stuff, play wiffle ball, do Karaoke, play poker, and bet on everything. This year’s big game is Jenga. $100 entry fee, winner take all. Candyland for a grand was a big hit a few years ago where I made it to the final table, but one of the show hosts pulled the ice cream cone for the easy win. Good times.

  23. Ernest Money says:

    It is the end of days. Prepare well.

  24. JJ's B.S says:

    As John Lennon Would Say ‘Imagine’ Your Own 4 Bedrm/2 Bath Colonial. ‘Imagine’ A Tree Lined Street, Front Porch, Oak Floors. ‘ Imagine’ Gardening In Your Private Park-Like Yard, Entertaining On Your Patio And Deck, ‘Imagine’ A New Roof, New Windows And Energy Efficient Gas Heat, Sd#20. Dreams Do Come True! Dont Miss This One!!

  25. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [16];

    Romney really should have gone elsewhere, since all his did was PO the recipients.

    Doesn’t that assume that the recipients WANT to stay recipients? I think even among recipients there are a number who would rather not need or qualify for them, and wouldn’t but for the continuing depression II that Obama calls a recovery.

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [20];

    You blow $20 for in-flight WiFi and use it talking to us? ;-)

  27. Juice Box says:

    # 26 – Moose exactly he went on a negative attack and it was pointless, nobody in a depressed swing state wants to be pointed out as a moocher for feeding their kids. The stats are most of these people that were added to the WIC rolls have families and lost their jobs since the recession. These people aren’t going to swing over to Romney’s version of “Hope” for one of those 12 million jobs he has plans for when he kept repeating last night “the government does not create jobs.” I don’t think the average Joe will believe he can create 12 million jobs when he keeps throwing out negatives like that.

    If he is going to take a page from the Hope and Change script he better do it right or it’s over.

  28. Juice Box says:

    Lib – 5 nights in Vegas? Will we have to chip in for a new liver and money to get you home?

  29. JJ's B.S says:

    the liver is evil it must be punished

  30. JJ's B.S says:

    My uncle invented in-flight WiFi. Go ahead spend the $20.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    October 17, 2012 at 3:12 pm

    Lib [20];

    You blow $20 for in-flight WiFi and use it talking to us? ;-

  31. Libtard at 30k feet says:

    Internet is $12 if you purchase it before boarding. Pray for my liver. Already warmed it up with an Irish coffee and a beer at lunch.

  32. Ernest Money says:

    When I start doing stuff like that, I will succeed.

  33. Essex says:

    33. Prepping.

  34. Fabius Maximus says:

    #28 juice

    “he better do it right or it’s over” This race was over a long time ago. Unless Mitt can move the needle in OH, he is so far behind in the Electoral College count, he is just runing the clock in the 4th qtr.

    Didn’t catch much of the debate last night but saw this little gem from the worst candidte ever making his pitch for Garys vote.

    “I also think that we should give visas to people — green cards, rather, to people who graduate with skills that we need, people around the world with accredited degrees in — in science and math get a green card stapled to their diploma, come to the US of A.”

  35. JJ's B.S says:

    I am voting for Mitt, me and him both have binders full of women.

  36. Ernest Money says:

    Mitt’s got polygamy in his blood. That’s what it takes to keep a binder full of women happy.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Ugh. I got out of bed for this? G’night.

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  40. Ernest Money says:

    Wonga this, gluteus.

  41. Ernest Money says:

    OTOH, I can beat a rate of $4,200% by taking out a loan from Vinnie the Mook down the block.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

  43. Ernest Money says:

    gary (46)-

    Boy, are you gonna be disappointed if this guy actually wins.

    Nothing will change. Except the fact that the stock market will plummet even further after the sugar high rally it will have if The Skimmer wins.

  44. Juice Box says:

    A fake 1,000 lb bomb, requires lots of money. This terrorist bomber was a kid when 9/11 happened. It seems this will never end.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/10/17/fed-bombing-plot-foiled/1640035/

  45. Juice Box says:

    The terrorist from Bangladesh that tried to blow up the FED in NY was an undergrad in Missouri State for one semester before “transferring” to NY. That school runs 21k with expenses. I hope they trace the money and send a few double tap hellfire missiles their way, the locals in Bangladesh who recruited him and his handlers wherever they are. We cannot afford another generation if this crap.

  46. Ernest Money says:

    Hatred is always in fashion.

  47. Jersey Jerk says:

    [50] :
    I hate you.

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    3 volume set? A binder full of women, another binder of women who like to be bound, and volume 3 with women who will be happy to bind you, right?

    I am voting for Mitt, me and him both have binders full of women.

  49. JJ's B.S says:

    I am staying away from women for now. My friend has instructed me to watch out. I had two things happen in last week.

    1) Smoking hot cheerleader keeps talking to me whose grandparents have seats behind me. I need not to look, repeat JJ dont look.

    2) Ran into a late 1980s/1990s Pop Superstar whose path I cross with a lot. Once again repeat dont do it. Wont say who but Pat Bentatar, Joan Jet, Debbie Gibson, Myra Carey, Taylor Dane, Alisha, Patti Smyth etc. Lots of ex female Pop stars live on LI who now all blend in and are married so use their married last names. My friend told me walk away. I dont know how divorced men survive their first year being single, they must have a whole binder full of names to get to.

    Hard to not add to my binders. But I must be good!

  50. Comrade Nom Deplume in lower tax, lower cost PA says:

    Still feel like crap. But I see I am not missing much.

  51. chicagofinance says:

    is this the day for grim?

  52. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: Repeating from yesterday…the local PTO guide, Chrebet is listed two down from me….

  53. chicagofinance says:

    Also John Connor terminated, but according to Rex he’ll be back….

  54. Fast Eddie says:

    I can’t believe the one-sided slop that is being reported as news. Everything has been reduced to skit journalism with the approach of a 4th grade mentality. I have no idea how, as a nation, we’ve become so f*cking stup1d, so quickly. Our poor children are going to be left as fodder in every way imaginable.

  55. Ernest Money says:

    Dude, that’s been the plan since about 1908.

    “Our poor children are going to be left as fodder in every way imaginable.”

  56. Ernest Money says:

    Maybe our children will have the guts to start shooting the criminals who’ve hijacked our country and take it back.

  57. Jason says:

    [58] Fast Eddie

    “I have no idea how, as a nation, we’ve become so f*cking stup1d, so quickly.”

    79% of Chicago 8th graders are not proficient in reading. Any more questions?

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    I concede. I feel sorry for our children. We’ll keep fighting for them because there’s really nothing else left to do. I never thought earning your stripes would become a source for mockery only to be replaced by success being measured according to street mentality.

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    Jason [61],

    It’s the new standard, the new norm. We have no choice but to accept it.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [54] JJ – Here’s the 80’s Pop Superstar I run into the most:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_zvEm1KyQ8

    2) Ran into a late 1980s/1990s Pop Superstar whose path I cross with a lot.

  61. Anon E. Moose says:

    ExPat [64];

    *groan*

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    Sounds like folks at the regional Fed banks are starting to worry about inflation.

    ,a href=”http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-the-feds-mission-creep/2012/10/17/7bf8e96a-1877-11e2-9855-71f2b202721b_story.html?wpisrc=emailtoafriend”>Geroge Will Wash Post column

  63. Anon E. Moose says:

    Redux [67];

    Sounds like folks at the regional Fed banks are starting to worry about inflation.

    Geroge Will Wash Post column

  64. yome says:

    Feds plan is a 2-4% inflation.6% will be out of range,then they worry. I believe at 4% they will be very happy but will not say this publicly.

  65. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    yome – I think the unspoken goal is steady 10% *wage* inflation. Makes all the bad loans good in no time.

    Feds plan is a 2-4% inflation.6% will be out of range,then they worry. I believe at 4% they will be very happy but will not say this publicly.

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  68. Essex says:

    58. You can get the real story it is you who choses Fox news as a window to the world.

  69. JJ's B.S says:

    What is PTO? Also I heard Wayne is managing peoples money after getting hit in the head multiple times. I least they had a debate at his old college this weekend.

    Hey what 80s star was that on youtube? I cant access it at work.

    chicagofinance says:
    October 18, 2012 at 9:09 am

    JJ: Repeating from yesterday…the local PTO guide, Chrebet is listed two down from me….

  70. chicagofinance says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-05/barclays-hires-ex-jet-chrebet-s-team-from-morgan-stanley-1-.html

    JJ’s B.S says:
    October 18, 2012 at 12:09 pm
    What is PTO? Also I heard Wayne is managing peoples money after getting hit in the head multiple times. I least they had a debate at his old college this weekend.
    Hey what 80s star was that on youtube? I cant access it at work.
    chicagofinance says:
    October 18, 2012 at 9:09 am

    JJ: Repeating from yesterday…the local PTO guide, Chrebet is listed two down from me….

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