October Existing Home Sales

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Houses Probably Held Near Two-Year High

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably held in October near a two-year high, indicating the recovery in residential real estate is being sustained by cheap borrowing costs, economists said a report may show today.

Purchases held at a 4.75 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast of 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In August, demand reached a 4.83 million rate, the most since May 2010. Homebuilder confidence probably held at a six-year high in November, another report may show.

Propelled by the lowest mortgage rates on record, cheaper properties and improved consumer sentiment, housing is one of the economy’s sources of strength. The pace of October sales underscores what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called “signs of improvement” in a market still hampered by strict bank-lending standards.

“You’ve got low mortgage rates, you’ve got gradual improvement in the labor market, and you have very low inventories,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, a subsidiary of the largest U.S. mortgage lender. “Housing is positioned to move significantly higher over the next year.”

The report from the National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 4.55 million to 5.05 million.

This entry was posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

62 Responses to October Existing Home Sales

  1. Brian says:

    first!

  2. Painhrtz - 42 says:

    3rd!

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    What’s the median sales price YOY in Northern NJ?

  4. NJGator says:

    Chifi – prev 62 – I call BS. Nothing’s running on-time today. They’ve added service back this week before they had the capacity to deal with it, probably to save face now that the media is reporting on this. Our 35 minute train ride was about 30 minutes late today…and SRO during a short holiday week because they are shorting cars on each run and have added Hoboken riders onto the midtown trains.

    And who here said they left the old stuff to flood so insurance would replace it? They lost over 80 of the brand new double decker cars plus a large number of the new dual engines.

    This quote is stunning. It is the equivalent of punching someone in the face and saying “I am not punching you in the face, and I am not about to punch you in the face.” Then winding up and punching them again.
    xxxxxxx
    James Weinstein, NJ Transit’s executive director, said he did not expect the loss of equipment to have a significant effect on service in the coming weeks and months.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Median for Bergen County YoY is down 1.5%. This, with no inventory and lending rates at “please take me” rates. Over the last five year, the median for Bergen County is down 15.5%. If rates or inventory increase by a fraction, you’ll see more urgency on behalf of the sellers a la twinkie proportions.

    Tick.. tick… tick… tick…

  6. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  7. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Sales of existing homes rise 2.1% in October

    Sales of existing homes rose 2.1% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million from a downwardly revised rate of 4.69 million in September, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a rate of 4.8 million for October. Sales are up 10.9% from the prior year. The median existing-home price rose 11.1% from the prior year to $178,600. Inventories declined 1.4% to 2.14 million units in October, representing at the current sales rate a 5.4-month supply, the lowest since 2006. Regionally, only the Northeast saw lower sales in October, with a decline of 1.7%, due, in part to Hurricane Sandy, which hit the area late in the month. There could be greater effects from Sandy in coming months, NAR said.

  8. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I heard that Bernanke, in one of his final official moves, is going to have all audio, in all media, mandated to have a subliminal message.
    buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes, buy a house, pay your taxes,

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Old BC Boomers are getting very impatient. I have first-hand knowledge of many retired empty nesters (many with no mortage) in BC wanting to get out from under their $15K-$30K property tax bills. They no longer need the train into NYC nor the schools and they just want to get their $600K-$900K and get out of Dodge. I would not be surprised to see a general-admission-Who-concert-like crush to get to the exits early in the Spring.

    Median for Bergen County YoY is down 1.5%. This, with no inventory and lending rates at “please take me” rates. Over the last five year, the median for Bergen County is down 15.5%. If rates or inventory increase by a fraction, you’ll see more urgency on behalf of the sellers a la twinkie proportions.

    Tick.. tick… tick… tick…

  10. Anon E. Moose says:

    ExPat [10];

    … they just want to get their $600K-$900K and get out of Dodge.

    On the whole, pricing has reflected this mentality since the early years of the collapse (~’07 or so?). “Why should I settle for less than what Ed & Trixie down the block got when they sold in ’05?”

    I got some bad news for Ralph & Alice — you aren’t getting $900k or even $600k today, or next year. Its $500 if you’re luck AND if you’ve kept the place up. If you haven’t renovated since before the kids were born, even less.

    You can sell now or die in place.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    ExPat [10],

    I visited 5 open houses yesterday and ran into one other couple during the journey. 3 of the 5 realtors were practically following us out the door giving us hints of what the sellers would probably accept in price; which translates that they’ll take lower. There were only a handful of open houses yesterday… really scraping the barrel.

    One house in River Vale was a huge split, needed lotsa work but the layout was ideal. The owner is begging for an offer and will accept something in mid 400s – neighborhood is beautiful. Only problem? It’s in a flood zone. In fact, the backyard is like walking on a sponge.

    All of this, despite lending rates with a “3″ handle and no inventory. The other houses we saw were just painful to walk through and/or had a “Mississippi” feel to the neighborhood on top of being over-priced, as the the realtors agreed wholeheartedly. One was beautiful, in a newer development in River Vale, with a price tag of high 600s but taxes were 15K and it was on a 60 x 100 lot with no backyard.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    You can sell now or die in place.

    F*cking amen to that.

  13. 3B Buying says:

    #10 The problem with the old boomers, is that they are the most unreasonable when it comes to price. And they will try and squeeze every time out of a buyer. They have not ptoblem asking for a ridiculous amount of money, that has not been updated in years, or painted since Barnaby Jones was on TV.

  14. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [12] gary – I bet the way to get the best deal in BC this Spring is to just knock on doors of houses that aren’t for sale in February. You can even do a little research and find out who has been in their house a long time and who doesn’t have a mortgage. There’s got to be a goodly percentage who are thinking about selling, even if they haven’t called a realtor yet. In my wife’s hometown of Glen Rock I would say 50% of the really nice houses change hands with no realtor involved.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    ExPat [15],

    I’ve been thinking about that for a while now. Gotta start digging them up.

  16. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    sold OVER list in The Fly:

    Last LP: $825,000 ML#: 1216457
    Addr: 116 PALMER AVE
    Twn: TENAFLY LMER

    Orig LP: $825,000
    Sold: $850,000

    SD: 11/13/2012 UCD: 6/22/2012 DOM: 51

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    3B,

    We looked at a small bi-level in Hillsdale yesterday. It’s listed in the mid 400s but needs work, of course. And it’s on a 75 x 100 lot. The houses around it were bigger bi-levels and done up nicely. I don’t remember the street, off hand.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [15] and when I say 50% of the houses change hands with no realtor involved, that’s kind of half true. What I mean is that they change hands with not realtor commission paid. Sometimes neighbors just directly approach other neighbors with an offer to buy. Another way it happens is that a seller “signals” his house is for sale by listing it with a very high price and then the sale occurs after the listing expires. Often it’s the second realtor to get the listing who gets screwed. When the house is listed the second time it’s already pretty much known who the in-town buyer(s) is/are, so they are just added to the exclusion list on the second listing. The second listing is a waste of time for the unlucky realtor, it’s just a way to get the real buyer off the pot. Since the kids aren’t going to change schools, it doesn’t even matter when the sale happens.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Fabius,

    Are you here on a green card? Been here less than 8 years and want to avoid the exit tax?

    http://hodgen.com/london-embassy-turnaround-time-for-green-cards/

  20. 3B Buying says:

    #18 Fast: Would you consider buying it? It sounds like a possibility.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [18] Did they ever build the really big bi-levels in BC? In the neighborhood where I grew up in Rockaway Township we had a healthy mix of ranches, CH colonials, and GIGANTIC bi-levels, all built circa 1963-65. The ranches were the smallest (3BR 2 bath), the CH colonials were bigger (4BR 2.5 bath), but the bi-levels were hands down the biggest houses in the neighborhood, around 3000 square feet. With rare exception they all had 2 car garages kicked out to the side with a giant concrete deck off the kitchen above the garages. The roof was extended so that half the deck was shaded and half was in the sun. We lived in a CH colonial but there was a time when we almost moved about 6 houses up the street into one of these giant bi-levels around 1975 or so. One of my Mom’s friends had the listing of both our house and the bi-level, so she was really motivated but we couldn’t get our house sold so the deal fell through. I was very disappointed because I would have finally had my own room. It took me almost another 10 years and an engineering degree before I finally got my own room for the first time.

    We looked at a small bi-level in Hillsdale yesterday. It’s listed in the mid 400s but needs work, of course. And it’s on a 75 x 100 lot. The houses around it were bigger bi-levels and done up nicely. I don’t remember the street, off hand.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    It was just a little larger than a shoebox and top to bottom needed upgrading. It was just too small.

  23. 3B Buying says:

    #23 Got it.

  24. wickedorange says:

    rutgers to the big 10… that’s a huge payday.

  25. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A Dying Neighborhood in Memphis

    On the block of Hazelwood Road in Memphis, Tennessee, where Rebecca Black used to live, 17 out of 30 parcels have either been completely reclaimed by nature or have houses that sit empty. Five of the 15 parcels on her side of the street were abandoned after the recession ended, public records show. Many of the deserted properties are still legally owned by the mortgage borrowers. Nine of the properties are behind on taxes owed to the city or county governments, or both, public records show.

    http://go.bloomberg.com/multimedia/hazelwood-road/

    If you go to zillow, or bing.com/maps, or google maps it is amazing how many parcels have either no buildings or a just a shed across the whole area (presumably bought by an abutter). They all look to be level grassy lots.

  26. Brian says:

    All is right with the world.

    Exclusive: Sun Capital wants to buy Hostess

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/11/19/hostess-sun-buyout/?iid=Lead

  27. 250K says:

    NJGator (5) and
    Chifi – (prev 62)

    There was so much to vomit from in that article.
    I am just trying to picture the person or team who was there for Hurricane Irene, saw the storm surge reach within 400 yards of the rails, read the advisory issued for Sandy (that this storm’s surge will be significantly worse), and yet they still go with “well, historically we don’t get flooded here so lets roll the dice”.

    This just goes so far beyond the realm of it being a once in a lifetime event. There were warnings!

    The commute is just plain misery for so many people each day. I don’t understand how there are not revolts, protests, demands for accountability of some kind …. or worse, someone just going ape-sh*t

    “Exclusive: New Jersey railway put trains in Sandy flood zone despite warnings”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/18/us-storm-sandy-newjersey-railway-idUSBRE8AG0K220121118

  28. Jill says:

    #28: Wonderful. Another vulture capitalist company that will pay an eight-figure compensation package to some nimrod who has no idea how to run a baking company, then they’ll pick over the bones again and collect their fees. American exceptionalism at its finest.

  29. Jill says:

    3b, did you look at that house on Beech St. yesterday? Looked like the open house had some traffic.

  30. chicagofinance says:

    If you have Cablevision….call for refund….I didn’t even have to talk to anybody….punched in home number, then it gave me prompts and asked how many days I was without service….punched in 12….just recieved 12 days of refund off bill….

  31. Brian says:

    What if you paid a premium for a house in a train town in BC? If your commute now sucks is there somebody you can call?

  32. 3B Buying says:

    #31 Jill: Sorry did not get around to it;holiday preparations and that sort of thing.

  33. chicagofinance says:

    250K…..a couple of Saturdays ago I posted an article to these threads and this quote hacked me off to no end….GUESS WHAT NANCY SNYDER?….NO YOU FCKING DON’T!

    The agency has faced criticism for not moving its trains to higher ground before the storm. A spokeswoman said the Kearny yard had never been in the path of previous floods. “This is not our first storm,” NJ Transit spokeswoman Nancy Snyder said. “We are trained individuals and we know where to put our equipment. There’s really no way we could have prepared for it any better than we did.”

  34. 3B Buying says:

    #32 chgo: I did the same thing, but it make 2 or more billing cycles before the refund is credited. Just got a new offer from FIOS $79 a month for all three services, plus a $300.00 Visa debit card. I am thinking about switching. Right now I have Cablevision, all 3 services, 3 boxes, DVR TV show recorder thing, plus HBO, Showtime, Cinemax for $125.oo a month. Every time I call and threaten to leave I get an incentive to stay.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    The damning thing is that you have NYC Subways, LIRR, MetroNorth & SEPTA showing prima facie evidence that these guys are FUBAR and caught in a red-handed state of incompetence……

  36. chicagofinance says:

    3B called this past Friday…bill cycle closed yesterday…today have bill with refund….

    I have three services, one box, DVR, for $108 all in….no FiOS in my area….my only credible threat is Verizon + DirectTV for TV and Internet…I guess it is enough just to call….

    3B Buying says:
    November 19, 2012 at 1:57 pm
    #32 chgo: I did the same thing, but it make 2 or more billing cycles before the refund is credited. Just got a new offer from FIOS $79 a month for all three services, plus a $300.00 Visa debit card. I am thinking about switching. Right now I have Cablevision, all 3 services, 3 boxes, DVR TV show recorder thing, plus HBO, Showtime, Cinemax for $125.oo a month. Every time I call and threaten to leave I get an incentive to stay.

  37. 3B Buying says:

    #38 chgo: You caught the billing cycle very nicely. I will of course be monitoring mine to make sure I get my 9 day credit. It pays to call.If you do, do not speak to the regular customer service rep. Call and ask for the service disconnect area, and then tell them you are thinking of switching, and go from there. In you case without FIOS, you may not have as much leverage.

  38. Brian says:

    I wonder if the Union knew all along that Sun Capital would make this move.

    30.Jill says:
    November 19, 2012 at 1:38 pm
    #28: Wonderful. Another vulture capitalist company that will pay an eight-figure compensation package to some nimrod who has no idea how to run a baking company, then they’ll pick over the bones again and collect their fees. American exceptionalism at its finest.

  39. Brian says:

    Smoke filled rooms and back-office deals and all. The workers are just cannon fodder.

  40. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A bunch of jersey boys caught with their fingers in the cookie jar:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-19/celgene-s-lazorchak-five-others-charged-with-insider-trading.html

    Executives at health-care companies Celgene Corp. (CELG), Sanofi and Stryker Corp. (SYK) were among six people charged for their alleged roles in an insider-trading ring that prosecutors said generated $1.4 million in illicit profit.

    John Lazorchak, 42, director of financial reporting at Celgene, was at the center of the network and regularly tipped others to nonpublic information on acquisitions, quarterly earnings results and regulatory news, Paul Fishman, the U.S. attorney in New Jersey, said in a statement.

    Those charged include Mark Cupo, 51, an executive at Sanofi-Aventis and Lazorchak’s former boss, and Mark Foldy, 42, a marketing executive at Stryker Corp. and high school classmate of Lazorchak. Prosecutors also charged Lawrence Grum, 48, and Michael Castelli, 48, who made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit and tipped friends and family, Fishman said.

    “Three of the defendants exploited their access to sensitive, confidential information at two New Jersey-based pharmaceutical companies and a prominent medical technology company,” Fishman said.

    Michael Pendolino, 43, a high school friend of Lazorchak, also was charged in a complaint filed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in federal court in Newark, New Jersey.

  41. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [42] BTW, Lazorchak and his wife bought an $825K home in Long Valley in 2009. Hope he’s not planning on refinancing now that he has no job.

  42. joyce says:

    Great comment I saw elsewhere…

    “Have you all noticed that every news story about “The Fiscal Cliff” says that the lack of agreement will “raise taxes, slash spending, require still more borrowing, and lead to Recession”? Of course, that’s all true.

    But has ANYONE proposed a plausible “Grand Bargain” that does NOT “raise taxes, slash spending, require still more borrowing, and lead to Recession?”

    The whole point of the current negotiation is to determine WHOSE taxes get raised and WHICH spending gets slashed, not that the macro outcome will be much different. And there will still be, lurking over the horizon, the threat of a bond market that loses faith and stops buying the debt (not just additional debt, but rolled-over debt).”

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  44. chicagofinance says:

    I warned nom about how sleazed out things are over there…..I know people on the Treasury side and it is fast and loose with rules…..the people from real button down corporations see this stuff and say WTF?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 19, 2012 at 3:04 pm
    [42] BTW, Lazorchak and his wife bought an $825K home in Long Valley in 2009. Hope he’s not planning on refinancing now that he has no job.

  45. chicagofinance says:

    Jill: I understand your point, but at bottom, this comment is neither fair nor reasonable. The company should cease to exist. As you say, it is a bone pile, and if someone wants to pump money into a carcass, it is their perogative. If somehow an outsized profit is generated, well good for them. You can’t just look at this thing ex-post and say “greedy vulture capitalists”. Today it is ex-ante and it is a vortex of a money pit……buyer beware…..

    Jill says:
    November 19, 2012 at 1:38 pm
    #28: Wonderful. Another vulture capitalist company that will pay an eight-figure compensation package to some nimrod who has no idea how to run a baking company, then they’ll pick over the bones again and collect their fees. American exceptionalism at its finest.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [46] chi,

    We aren’t there anymore. So no worries. There was drama in legal as well. We left right when the new GC was announced (unrelated) but imagine our shock when he left after only a couple of months.

  47. In the know in NJ says:

    In the last thread #63 Fast Eddie says:
    November 19, 2012 at 8:38 am
    Regarding Hostess: Can anyone explain how this sugar tariff works that in essence, killed the company? And does anyone find it ironic that a Mexican company is going to buy the iconic brand?

    Fast Eddie – The sugar importation restriction has been a pet peeve of Forbes Magazine for years. They are full of articles about it every few months.

    In Short –

    All confectionaries, wholesalers, and beverage manufacturers have to pay a set price per pound per sugar independent of the world price. This sugar must be bought from the US suppliers only from their domestic capacity or imported foreign capacity. These suppliers are the ones that import the sugar at world prices and resell at US set prices.

    The reasons that still a “Law” are the players behind it. Think what the Wall Street Bail out is to JPM & GS.

    The players:

    The Fanjul Brothers – Originally from cuba, kicked out by Castro they run sugar mills in Florida, Lousiana, Haiti & Dominican Republic. Well know in GOP fundraising circles and for importing very low paid workers to work in their sugar plantations.

    Other Big US Corporate Sugar including US Sugar & Domino’s. They have a set & guaranteed profit in the business.

    Because Sugar is so expensive in the US relative to other options like Corn Syrup or the new and improved name “Corn Sugar” – The corn procesors and Corn State Representatives help keep it in place. In here you have all the elected reps of Iowa, Kansas, etc + ADM, Cargill, Monsato, etc. —

    ADM & Cargill – specifically gets to sell Corn Syrup when no one in their right mind would buy that crap.

    So that is how your Pepsi is made from Corn Syrup instead of real sugar. Next time you are at Whole Food buy their Sugar sweetened “365″ Cola and compare to Pepsi or Coke with its corn syrup.

    This is also how Hostess has to pay more for sugar, that if it bought it at world prices it would be 75%+ cheaper to them.

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    OT alert.

    I saw that Anonymous declared “war” on Israel. I’m not sure I’d declare war on a country with black ops as experienced as Mossad or the willingness to use them. Once you find these guys, they aren’t exactly hard targets.

  49. Wonderful web site. Plenty of useful information here. I am sending it to some pals ans also sharing in delicious. And of course, thank you for your sweat!

  50. Ben says:

    The American way of getting rich has destroyed the economy. It seems, the primary path to riches is to infiltrate a company by getting hired through nepotism, fail your way upwards until you become an executive. Collect exorbitant salary while you and your incompetent executive friends run it into the ground.

  51. chicagofinance says:

    Ben: I think you meant New Jersey municipal government……

    Ben says:
    November 19, 2012 at 10:26 pm
    The American way of getting rich has destroyed the economy. It seems, the primary path to riches is to infiltrate a company by getting hired through nepotism, fail your way upwards until you become an executive. Collect exorbitant salary while you and your incompetent executive friends run it into the ground.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    More OT comic relief.

    On “Repo Games” tonight, the host was asking an older, obviously poor, black man a trivia question. If he answered correctly, he would get to keep his car.

    The question was “What legendary hero who lived in Sherwood Forest robbed from the rich and gave to the poor?”

    He answered “Barack Obama.”

    You just can’t make this stuff up.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Random Thought of the Day”

    Today, Aung Suu Kyi met Barack Obama. Anyone other than me find it comical that Obama, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, is meeting Suu Kyi, also a Nobel Peace Prize laureate? I can just imagine how that conversation went:

    Suu Kyi: “Wow, you won a Peace prize too? What did you do to win yours?”

    Obama: “uh …”

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] redux,

    Oh, and the guy who answered Barack Obama won the game and got to keep his car.

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