Home Price Headwinds

From CNN/Money:

There’s a home price recovery… but it’s really, really slow

Just about everybody agrees that the housing market is finally recovering — but don’t expect big price gains.

Nearly two-thirds of the nation’s housing markets will see price declines for the year through next June, according to analytics firm Fiserv. Overall, the gains will be just 0.3%.

One big factor that could weigh on prices: The fiscal cliff.

If Congress can’t agree on a deal to halt a series of tax increases and spending cuts, a recession is likely, and that would hit the housing recovery hard.

In addition, if the Bush-era tax cut on capital gains is allowed to expire — allowing the rate to increase to 20% from 15% on Jan. 1 — it would take a significant bite out of the profits high-end sellers would realize and give them less to spend on buying a new home, said Celia Chen, an economist and housing market analyst for Moody’s Analytics.

“Even people who do have the resources to buy homes will be more nervous,” she said.

But even if we avoid the fiscal cliff, there are other factors weighing on home prices.

In order to raise more tax revenue, Congress is considering putting a cap on the mortgage interest tax deduction, a key tax break aimed at encouraging homeownership — mainly among the upper-middle class.

Most of the benefit of this deduction goes to wealthier households. Mortgage borrowers with incomes of $250,000 or more realize an average annual tax savings of $5,460, according to the Tax Policy Center. Meanwhile, those making less than $40,000 a year, save just $91.

Capping the deduction would discourage buyers from buying bigger, more expensive homes, said Chen.
But it’s not just the high-end of the market that could get squeezed.

With Congress distracted by the fiscal cliff, there is a real chance that the Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Act of 2007 could expire come January 1. If the act were to lapse, struggling homeowners will have to start paying income taxes on the portion of their mortgage that is forgiven in a foreclosure, short sale or principal reduction.

Fiserv expects home prices to start heating up again next fall. Between June 2013 and 2014, it expects prices to climb 3.4% and to continue to grow at an annual rate of about 3.3% over the five years through June 2017.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

114 Responses to Home Price Headwinds

  1. grim says:

    Asking rents up 6.6% year over year in the NY Metro according to the Trulia Rent Monitor:

    Asking Price Gains Accelerate in November, but Local Differences Widen

  2. Essex says:

    Foist!

  3. grim says:

    From UPI:

    CoreLogic: Prices on track for 7.1 percent increase

    October prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012, the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest data from CoreLogic.

    On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012. All but five states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

    Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 5.8 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012, the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

    Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Illinois (-2.7 percent), Delaware (-2.7 percent), Rhode Island (-0.6 percent), New Jersey (-0.6 percent) and Alabama (-0.3 percent).

    Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).

  4. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    There’s two guarantees in life: taxes and death. And taxes rising unabated will no doubt kill you. But’s let’s be honest; for guys like me, this is a win-win. Increased tax revenue mean I get to find new and creative ways to pilfer the ever-burgeoning entitlement bucket and rising taxes eliminate the pool of potential buyers AND downward pressure on prices. Is there any doubt the dem0crats will win this argument in the end? Give the masses what they want. Obamunism rocks!

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).

    This, with no inventory and lending rates ridiculously low. How long does the leaky dam hold up?

  7. JJ's B.Se says:

    No mexicans, funniest thing was the damm mexicans showed up for “fall cleanup” around one week after storm. I was laughing so hard. I had 60 feet of debris on front lawn, rusty appliances, three abandoned cars with no plates on property and he goes maybe I can work around it I said I will see you in the spring. Second funniest thing was the the sprinkler guy from Melville which has no damage shows up nine am two days after storm to blow out sprinklers, I said sure come in. They were in laundry room by downstairs sewer main which blew out brown stuff I can only hope was dirt, I say climb over the debris, wipe off the poop and then how about they check the heads by lifting the crap off all of them.

    Guy goes well you know I have to make a living, sprinkler guy did come back two weeks later as it turns out the heads were ok and I dont want them freezing. And I still had no power and he had a machine in truck that did it.

    Latest fun is my hot water is now a trickle, somepipe is clogged or rusty.

    There are going to be an insane amount of foreclosed abandoned properties. Jerk to left and guy behind me are both young guys late 20s who only bought in last 24 months. Neither has been back. Both houses were worse than mine. I have no mortgage and own the POS so I cant walk away. Plus 60K in damages on a 400K house given Fema gave me 30K makes no sense.

    I tell you mold guys are crooks and the guys who make that damm mold guard spray for 31 bucks a gallon that home depot pushes is also BS. I did five gallons of mold guard in den, crawl space, laundry room and lower bathroom. I still had mold as of last night around old oil tank. So I am doing installation today so guy goes last chance to spray tonight. I wire brush the remaining mold off, wack it with a double portion of mold guard between 7pm and nine pm last night. Some is still left. Not much. I take two gallons of clorox straight up put it in 16 ounce at a time in an empty spray bottle and do old school straight up bleach in the crawl space for 45 minutes, BOOM. This morning I go down to crawl space before work to check it out and the damm 57 year old subfloor was brand new again. Smells like a freshly cleaned ICU in the hospital. Considering it was 100% underwater in salt water with sewerage a few weeks ago with a massive clogged rusty sewer pipe and rusty oil tank full of toxic stew nice to see it fresh as a daisy again.

    Fully people buying houses never really look in crawl space but really that is where the money and problems are. Now I just got to fix a harmless vertical crack in foundation in crawl space. Damm flood put a five foot crack floor to ceiling in it.

    When I do flip a house this is a great learning experience.

  8. JJ's B.Se says:

    This is like Kmart saying if you back out the items on sale we are making healthy margins on the full price items.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 5, 2012 at 8:48 am

    Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).

    This, with no inventory and lending rates ridiculously low. How long does the leaky dam hold up?

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Tax question for Nom if he stops by: Our company is moving our 401Ks from Fidelity to T. Rowe Price at the end of the month. No big deal, I’ve been through that before. What I did learn yesterday is that you can withdraw tax-free from the Additional Roth component of our 401K if you meet two conditions:
    1. You have to be aged 59 -1/2 or older
    2. You have to have made your first Roth contribution in excess of 5 years ago.

    If this is true (and I asked yesterday at the presentation), then shouldn’t everyone make at least a token Roth contribution before age 54-1/2? I asked and said if put I put in $1 at age 54-1/2 and $20K at age 57, I can take it all tax free when I’m $59-1/2, but if I didn’t put that $1 in at 54-1/2, I couldn’t? The T. Rowe Price chick (pretty hot black girl with some nice tight slacks, btw) said that was true.

  10. JJ's B.Se says:

    re: Price chick (pretty hot black girl with some nice tight slacks, btw) said that was true.

    Ahh the memories. Back in the late 80s went to a club called 4d in times square and met a smoking hot black girl and she had a halter top type thing and really nice tight black slacks. So we get back to my place get on the bed and I go to pull down her zipper. There is none, she goes I like wearing my zippers in the back, do me a favor I stand up and lean against bed while you pull my rear zipper down for me and help me out of these pants.

    I swear all ladies with nice bodies should wear tight black pants with zippers in the rear. They need to make a comeback NOW

  11. chicagofinance says:

    That is genius……

    JJ’s B.Se says:
    December 5, 2012 at 9:02 am
    This is like Kmart saying if you back out the items on sale we are making healthy margins on the full price items.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 5, 2012 at 8:48 am
    Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).
    This, with no inventory and lending rates ridiculously low. How long does the leaky dam hold up?

  12. nwnj says:

    #7

    Get ready for a bunch of section 8 low lifes to move into the abandon homes once they’re rehabbed. I still recommend GTFO ASAP – first loss is your best loss.

  13. chicagofinance says:

    The answer is yes, but the point of the Roth is tax-EXEMPT gains. The most difficult thing is to get money into the Roth. Once it is there, it is something to gift to your grandkids if you catch my drift……..so again the answer is yes, but why would you pull it that quick unless you had a bad hiccup……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    December 5, 2012 at 9:07 am
    If this is true (and I asked yesterday at the presentation), then shouldn’t everyone make at least a token Roth contribution before age 54-1/2? I asked and said if put I put in $1 at age 54-1/2 and $20K at age 57, I can take it all tax free when I’m $59-1/2, but if I didn’t put that $1 in at 54-1/2, I couldn’t? The T. Rowe Price chick (pretty hot black girl with some nice tight slacks, btw) said that was true.

  14. chicagofinance says:

    Note: you pay the tax in the current year….

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Yesterday’s black beauty was wearing tight wool gray slacks with zipper in the back. Her body impressed me way more than her series 6, 7, & 63. I even talked to her afterwards about shorting against the box in our ESOP. I really just wanted to say “against the box” to her.

    I swear all ladies with nice bodies should wear tight black pants with zippers in the rear. They need to make a comeback NOW

  16. grim says:

    11 – The problem is the discounted items consist of 6 pairs of used underwear, complete with skidmarks, and a size 16 floral mumu.

  17. Phoenix says:

    grim,
    everything has a price, even the used underwear. The real problem is the discount is not enough. Lower the price enough and even Gary will be interested. In NJ, the problem is most don’t HAVE to sell. There is no desperation here. Yet.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I wouldn’t pull it that quick, it was just the 5 year rule seemed kind of stupid. I already paid the tax, why shouldn’t I just get to access any of the retirement money however I wish when I reach retirement age? But apparently I have to put $1 in 5 years earlier to have the most flexible access. It just so happens that my oldest will start college when I’m precisely 60-1/2 (about 8 years from now), so who knows what I will be doing, but If the tuition bubble hasn’t popped by then I might “retire” for 6-8 years until both kids get through college. Can you still withdraw money from a personal IRA and put it back within 60 days? I think I read you can do this once a year for *each* account. If that’s the case, would it be within the rules to kite 7 IRA accounts if you wanted to retire at say, 57-1/2? Let’s say you need $100K for living expenses for 2 years until you get to 59-1/2. Now let’s also assume you’ve set up 7 separate IRA accounts and each one has over $100K.

    Jan 1st – withdraw $100K and put it in your checking account, there’s your spending money for the next two years.
    Late Feb – withdraw $100K from account #2 and pay back account #1
    56 days later withdraw $100K from account #3 an pay back account #2, etc.

    By the end of the year you will have withdrawn $100K from account #7, but now that it’s a new year you can borrow from account #1 again and kite for another 12 months or more until you reach 59-1/2 and then just pay the tax on the $100K without penalty. Can this work?

    The answer is yes, but the point of the Roth is tax-EXEMPT gains. The most difficult thing is to get money into the Roth. Once it is there, it is something to gift to your grandkids if you catch my drift……..so again the answer is yes, but why would you pull it that quick unless you had a bad hiccup……

  19. 3B Buying says:

    #17 These people might be desperate.House below is listed at 399K, sold in 2007 at 538K.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1232759&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    The house hunting deal has become pathetic… a f.ucking horror show. I wrote the other day about yet another 3 hours of wasted time scratching at the piece of sh1t open houses. 1 out of 5 had potential and of course, it was priced at a 2006 level.

    My favorite was the one on Brandywine in Ho-Ho-Kus. It was occupied by a 92 year old man, was twice the size of the cubicle I’m sitting in and was last updated during the Eisenhower adminstration. The owner didn’t think it needed updating. It was “only” listed at $545,000.

    Oh sure, I’ll go higher. After all, there’s a price to pay for being prestigious. Let me bring you to a $650,000 piece of sh1t, perhaps that’ll suit your taste. If not, we can also look at the $729,000 piece of sh1t as well and REALLY be prestigious.

  21. JJ's B.Se says:

    The zipper in back is key. It screams I cant reach my zipper is there any men available to help me take my pants off.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    December 5, 2012 at 9:26 am

    Yesterday’s black beauty was wearing tight wool gray slacks with zipper in the back. Her body impressed me way more than her series 6, 7, & 63. I even talked to her afterwards about shorting against the box in our ESOP. I really just wanted to say “against the box” to her.

    I swear all ladies with nice bodies should wear tight black pants with zippers in the rear. They need to make a comeback NOW

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And also in judicial states like NJ, you don’t have to sell even if you have no money and you’re under water. You can take $50-$100K you don’t have and pay the bank at the closing table or you can live rent free for 3 years and pay nothing. Which would you choose? In 1987 I bought a condo conversion in grim’s town with 10% down as an insider. I wish I knew that some insiders were buying with 5% down, I would have done that. Anyway, I lost my job a week before closing (it was actually the day of the ’87 market crash), but I closed anyway. A month and a half later I made my first mortgage payment and then never made another one. I had a paralegal girlfriend who helped me answer the foreclosure filing when it eventually arrived and without ever going to court I was able to delay the inevitable for 2.5 years for the cost of a bottle of wine (which my girlfriend drank while she typed my answer and denial) and a couple more bucks for registered mail. No mortgage, no HOA fees paid and I still collected rent from room-mate. My last summer there they wouldn’t let me use the pool anymore, though. Still was a pretty fun time.

    grim,
    everything has a price, even the used underwear. The real problem is the discount is not enough. Lower the price enough and even Gary will be interested. In NJ, the problem is most don’t HAVE to sell. There is no desperation here. Yet.

  23. grim says:

    Gary – 56 Hampshire closed – $615k

  24. Richard says:

    Hi JJ, nice to hear you’re OK. Pity about the house, I helped a friend clean up and it is pretty heartbreaking to see everything chucked out. I’m sure your place will be paradise but like you say, will be interesting what happens to the rest of the neighbourhood. Lots of basement apartments here in Jersey City might be boarded up forever I suspect.

    Are you looking to buy a beach house still? I remember you said after the next hurricane you’d go looking.

  25. Anon E. Moose says:

    NWNJ [12];

    Re: GTFO

    Can’t tell you how many houses I saw for sale in 2012 that were in the Wayne/Fairfield flood plains – ALL NEW BASEMENT AND MECHANICALS! This reno was brought to you by Irene and State Farm.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    grim,

    I think that price was too high. I’m really trying to be objective. It’s an OK town but let’s be honest. And it needed work, not just some cosmetics but kit and bath and other stuff. I really think mid 500s at best.

  27. grim says:

    A few months back I saw the best flood property ever (it was actually kind of a nice house, on a nice lot, I mean, very pretty when it wasn’t submerged). Property was on a stream, but it was clear that the home was built in the flood/erosion plane. The basement was finished, but built like a ship, complete with a hull and bulkhead doors (the waterproof kind with the friction locks at all corners) and windows. They made no attempt at hiding the fact that the home was half boat, and in flood.

  28. 3B Buying says:

    JJ Glad you and you rfamily are safe. And you have not lost your sense of humor. NAd of course your BS!

  29. zieba says:

    Grim: Which Wayne neighborhood does Ridgeview Terrace belong to?

  30. yome says:

    I left my 401k with Diversified when Company closed 6 years ago.I was happy with its performance. New job has Fidelity 401k. I am keeping 2 investment companies for my 401k,no plans of rolling it over.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    grim [29],

    That house is listed now at 579K. How sick is it that I not only know the house, but the current price, off the top of my head.

  32. Brian says:

    More detail on who will be laid off at Citi:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/05/us-citigroup-jobs-idUSBRE8B40NY20121205

    31.3B Buying says:
    December 5, 2012 at 10:31 am
    Citi toi cut 11,000 jobs.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-cut-11-000-jobs-143920434.html

  33. grim says:

    Toms Lake/Black Oak

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    3B [31], Brian [35];

    Citi Firing 11,000

    …the end result is that New York and the US have both just lost 11,000 less key taxpayers most of whom are almost certainly in the $250,000+ bucket.

    Kind of funny considering that the whole purpose of TARP was to prop up C without specifically saying that C was the one being propped up.

  35. Anon E. Moose says:

    Opps. Hanging HTML tags.

  36. Anon E. Moose says:

    Redo [37];

    3B [31], Brian [35];

    Citi Firing 11,000

    …the end result is that New York and the US have both just lost 11,000 less key taxpayers most of whom are almost certainly in the $250,000+ bucket.

    Kind of funny considering that the whole purpose of TARP was to prop up C without specifically saying that C was the one being propped up.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    …the end result is that New York and the US have both just lost 11,000 less key taxpayers most of whom are almost certainly in the $250,000+ bucket.

    I guess that $729,000 piece of sh1t in Upper Asswood just dropped to $728,000. [sarcasm off].

  38. Ernest Money says:

    Just think how much better off we’d be today had we let the scum banks like C fail back in ’08.

    Think things aren’t rigged against the individual Amerikan? We won’t realize it until we’re all roaming the country in armed packs.

  39. Anon E. Moose says:

    Heh.

    The Rules

    Rule #4 — It’s all about the money.
    It is absolutely, without question, unequivocally about the money. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar, a regulator, an MBA career counselor, or Matt Taibbi.

    (emphasis added)

  40. Ernest Money says:

    Pieces of Eight and barter. That’s where we’re headed, folks.

  41. Richard says:

    About 25 percent of the restructuring charges will be taken in the bank’s investment and corporate banking businesses,

    Given that most of the jobs are in third world countries, I’d think 25% of the charge means 1000 people at most, possibly a few hundred in the Tri State, which isn’t such a big deal.

    I agree though the whole street is in trouble, which is bad for the region in general.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Richard,

    I agree though the whole street is in trouble, which is bad for the region in general.

    It’s different here. We’re immune, it’s contained to subprime and we’re prestigious.

  43. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hey, JJ… more power to ya, brother.

    Here’s how you deal with gov’t busybodies — do what the f*** you want and if they b!tch, say “Oops. Sorry”. Like this Russian in France. Given the 75% millionaire’s tax, he probably wasn’t planning to stay long, anyway.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/334883/18th-century-chateau-accidentally-demolished-france-katherine-connell

    Wait… it was reno the house, demo the shack?!? Reminds me of the joke “We’re gonna rape the women, and pillage the livestock — and for GOD SAKES get it right this time!”

  44. joyce says:

    “Thanks to the fiscal cliff and other factors, two-thirds of U.S. markets may see prices fall”

    http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/05/real_estate/housing-home-prices/index.html?iid=Lead

    The whole notion of this fiscal cliff is so pathetic. TPTB can’t even be bothered anymore to come up with an actual real or at least believable crisis.
    So we have a situation where if we do nothing and go off the cliff, we will have pretend cuts (thanks to the fraud that is baseline budgeting) and tiny tax increases (relative to the deficit and budget). In an attempt to avoid this catastrophy, our fearless leaders have been working round-the-clock to strike a deal that will include pretend cuts and tiny tax increases to save.

    Considering the solution to the problem that was easy money and too much spending & debt was to lower interest rates even further and take on more debt to spend even more, I guess the above fiscal cliff solution is to be expected.

    Truly bizzaro world

  45. Brian says:

    They’d be even better off if they bought shares of C in 2009. Could have had it for .97 cents.

    Then they’d be cheering the bailout.

    41.Ernest Money says:
    December 5, 2012 at 11:17 am
    Just think how much better off we’d be today had we let the scum banks like C fail back in ’08.

    Think things aren’t rigged against the individual Amerikan? We won’t realize it until we’re all roaming the country in armed packs.

  46. Libtard in Union says:

    I don’t get the fiscal cliff either. Not happy that the government gets bigger with its inability to spend wisely, but the budget goes up every year. Obama just wants someone to pay for it (the 250K crowd). What a novel concept.

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    Obama just wants someone to pay for it (the 250K crowd).

    Handing out phones and ponies start to add up after a while. But f.uck em, let the 250+ crowd keep dishing. If they have a problem with it, too f.ucking bad, there’s nothing they can do about it anyway. Obama’s successor will just keep the ball rolling. His voting block will see to it.

  48. JJ's B.Se says:

    Oddly I looked at an reo/short sale in Atlantic Beach Long Island that was a wreck and crazy enough the house four houses from water got zero water. Flood was somewhat random.

    I am thinking of going down to Lido Beach and looking at something like the condos at Lido Townhouse, lots of old jewish widows and couples most likely had scare of their lives, maybe give a good price. Some condos above the second floor let you rent no fee and building has flood insurance. Kinda get flood discount. But either way I am waiting till after Jan 1st, that is when annual property reassessment happens and new town budgets are coming out. Places like Long Beach Long Island are going to get soaked a second time in property tax hikes as well as flood insurance hikes, while Point Lookout, Lido Beach and Atlantic Beach will be fine as well as Far Rockway/Breezy Point bungalows as that cost is spread out among city. Long Beach is one of the few Cities on LI. They 100% have their own everything which means 100% they pay.

    Little mentioned that Island Park Long Island got hit the hardest of anyone. No mention in news but that town was 100% underwater and every town vehicle was distroyed too.

    Richard says:
    December 5, 2012 at 10:23 am

    Hi JJ, nice to hear you’re OK. Pity about the house, I helped a friend clean up and it is pretty heartbreaking to see everything chucked out. I’m sure your place will be paradise but like you say, will be interesting what happens to the rest of the neighbourhood. Lots of basement apartments here in Jersey City might be boarded up forever I suspect.

    Are you looking to buy a beach house still? I remember you said after the next hurricane you’d go looking.

  49. Punch My Ticket says:

    BS [22] – Ever wonder who helped her put her pants on?

  50. yome says:

    The fiscal cliff only happens if they dont do anything to rectify the problem in 2013. Jan 1 cliff talks means nothing but to scare the masses. I too want to see us go over Jan 1. Then the pressure will be on both sides,when all tax rates goes back to Clinton era and start real talks without talking to the parties base

  51. JJ's B.Se says:

    My favorite funny story is this. So town inspector comes snooping by my house and knocks on door. Wants to know if I had flood damage so he can inspect and of course get fees and kickbacks. Well I tell him I had zero flood damage. Meanwhile I realize the lower level windows are open, lights are on and whole thing is gutted. He then goes what about down there? Can I go there and look? Mind you you can see straight threw front to back, just studs and dangling lights with no ceiling.

    I say with a straight face, no you can not enter my property. He goes ok. Then he says are you sure there is no damage. I say once again with a straight face your form states that you are to ask homeowner if there was flood damage and record the response my response is there is no flood damage, therefor I have no flood damage. Also I was in a mandatory evacuation zone and did not return to after flood so I have no knowledge of what occured during flood so I cant answer your questions He goes thank you and leaves.

    This is same LIPA BS I got, the question to homeowner was your box underwater not was box underwater. I answered to best of my knowledge my box was not underwater. When asked can I look at it I said, no.

    get a search warrant you want to come on my property

    Anon E. Moose says:
    December 5, 2012 at 11:33 am

    Hey, JJ… more power to ya, brother.

    Here’s how you deal with gov’t busybodies — do what the f*** you want and if they b!tch, say “Oops. Sorry”. Like this Russian in France. Given the 75% millionaire’s tax, he probably wasn’t planning to stay long, anyway.

  52. JJ's B.Se says:

    That is why hot girls have gay friends.

    Punch My Ticket says:
    December 5, 2012 at 12:32 pm

    BS [22] – Ever wonder who helped her put her pants on?

  53. Libtard in Union says:

    “my box was not underwater.”

    Surprised you didn’t go anywhere with this.

  54. JJ's B.Se says:

    Actually my box was wet and my sewer pipe was full. Sounds like the name of an x-rated movie.

    Libtard in Union says:
    December 5, 2012 at 12:41 pm

    “my box was not underwater.”

    Surprised you didn’t go anywhere with this.

  55. 3B Buying says:

    #44 And a few hundred more at the other bib boys, and a afew hundred more of the well paid support and admin jobs, and then it becomes a more of a big deal.

  56. Juice Box says:

    3B – looks like Bernanke’s got cover and Congress takes the blame.

    We are headed for one hell of a recession.

    CHeck the latest RECPROUSM156N series.

  57. xolepa says:

    JJ,
    Were you anywhere near that floating bar that broke off it’s mooring and floated down the island? I would think that would be the first place you’d hit.

  58. Brian says:

    I think jj’s description of looking out his window and seeing his BMW bobbing up and down in the water with trunk open and wipers going with car alarm blaring was the new best story of the storm. You must have been dumbfounded like WTF is going on?

  59. Brian says:

    By the way JJ, I was starting to think you wouldn’t be blogging here any more for good. I got soft and started drinking some of those pricey craft brew beers. I will be switching back to tall boys imediately……

  60. 3B Buying says:

    #59 Agrred all around!! Now I just need to make a decesion house wise!! Think I will take December off!!

  61. Brian says:

    63 -
    3B, you’ve agonized over renting vs owing for how many years now? Just stick to renting man, you’ll sleep better.

  62. Libtard in Union says:

    Rent-to-own B. All the brothas down in da ghetto do it.

  63. Ernest Money says:

    Tote-the-note real estate. An idea whose time has come.

  64. 3B Buying says:

    #64 Brain: No. I have owned and rented, sold almost at the top, and make a ton on the sale. Cheapo rental is now coming to an end (and I mean cheap!!). So I have to move,and don’t want to do the rental thing again asI don’t want to have to possibly move every couple of years. I am agonizing over where to buy, and what tradeoffs i should or should not consider. Bergen Co ain’t Kansas anymore!

  65. Libtard in Union says:

    You said your kids are out of school. I would just move into the ghetto and would save for retirement.

  66. Brian says:

    Maybe he can move in with Gary.

  67. 3B Buying says:

    #60 Yep out of HS.One left in college.We started young I guess by today’s standards. Retirement taken care of. I can do better than the “ghetto”. My concern with where I buy is that it does not become the “ghetto” down the road.

  68. Fast Eddie says:

    Scotch Plains: Put this town in the “Clifton” category as one that’s fraying at the borders. I had cousins growing up there and it was so pristine we called it Lillyville. We, being from Jersey City were the gangster cousins. Anyway, you have Union and Hillside closing in on one end and Plainfield on the other end. Break out “The Club” yo! You think Westfield is immune? Think again. That goes for all the sh1theads in the upper BC towns as well. We’re in the last act folks, only thing left is the epilogue.

  69. Fast Eddie says:

    3B [71],

    It’ll all be ghetto in the end, my friend.

  70. Libtard in Union says:

    3b: Just overspend into Ho-Ho-Kus and be done.

  71. Ragnar says:

    Reposting from last night:
    Teacher union dollars at work (in California). A propaganda video called “Tax the Rich”. Will the NJ Teachers union be far behind?
    Lefties will love it.
    http://youtu.be/cwg4DB-EeEA

    SACRAMENTO – A new video produced by the California Federation of Teachers – which could be playing in your child’s classroom as we speak – drums up the typical class warfare images we’ve come to expect from Big Labor.

    “Tax the Rich: An Animated Fairy Tale,” written by CFT staffer Fred Glass (2011 compensation: $139,800) and narrated by proud leftist actor (and 1 percenter) Ed Asner, advocates for higher taxes on the “rich” as the cure for government’s insatiable thirst for spending.

    The video claims the rich got rich through tax cuts and tax loopholes and even tax evasion.

    But when the 99 percent fought back, the “rich” apparently urinated on the “poor,” at least according to the video. What a classy way to frame your argument for children, Big Labor.

    The video also claims that when the housing market crashed, the government printed money for “rich people” but they didn’t give any to “ordinary people whose houses and jobs were broken by the crash.”

    The California Federation of Teachers’ video is little more than unsurprising leftist propaganda, aimed to indoctrinate children with no basis in fact. Do you know if your child is watching it in school?

  72. Libtard in Union says:

    Or Northvale had a good rep when I was in college. Of course, back then, Clifton was still desirable.

  73. Ragnar says:

    Fast Eddie,
    I used to live in Scotch Plains, and it seemed ok. There’s one edge that’s a bit questionable, but the vast majority is pretty good. For those working downtown, RVL + Path is doable, for those working uptown, the bus is better. The south side is the more premium area, but it’s also farther away from downtown and transport.

    Now I live in Bridgewater. Public schools have more tiering and programs. I enjoy being more distant from neigbors and traffic (next to Martinsville), but trips to NYC are longer. Still considering Pingry private school for 6th grade, just a few miles away.

  74. Fast Eddie says:

    “A democratic society requires a stable and effectively functioning economy. I trust that we and our successors at the Federal Reserve will be important contributors to that end.”

    Alan Greenspan, 16 years ago today. Hysterical, isn’t it?

    It should now read: “I trust that we and our successors at the Federal Reserve will be important contributors to THE end.”

  75. Punch My Ticket says:

    3b [68] -

    Kids gone, retirement taken care of … Bergen Co. ain’t Kansas

    Why not Kansas then?

  76. 3B Buying says:

    #79 Too Flat?

  77. 3B Buying says:

    #72 Fast: The towns with out a lot of multi family housing will fare better.

  78. 3B Buying says:

    #73 Fast: You may be right. Just not sure the premium is worth it.

  79. 3B Buying says:

    #76 Lib: Too far away for commuting purposes. I want my cake and wnat to eat it too!!
    Sorry I over think things too!

  80. Libtard in Union says:

    I would just move to Clifton.

  81. JJ's B.Se says:

    Homes Are Still Cheap
    But homes are still cheap, hovering between 1999 and 2000 prices. In the last six years, the typical American home-buyer’s mortgage payment has dropped $358 to $889: enough to go out to dinner every night.

  82. Ernest Money says:

    Mmmm…Crapplebee’s!!!!

    “In the last six years, the typical American home-buyer’s mortgage payment has dropped $358 to $889: enough to go out to dinner every night.”

  83. JJ's B.Se says:

    worst applebees in america is the one at the woodbury outlet mall by NYS throughway

  84. JJ's B.Se says:

    If according to Obama the average mortgage payment is $889 and average person makes 250K it is easy to see why we can afford higher taxes

  85. Ernest Money says:

    “Lunatic” is a word that should be reserved to describe members of Clowngress.

    “The House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a Senate-passed bill striking the word “lunatic” from federal law, without removing a nearby reference to “idiot.” The vote sends the legislation to President Barack Obama to be signed into law, removing what advocates consider an outdated, offensive term for mental illness from the United States Code.

    The legislation, crafted by Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad and Republican Sen. Mike Crapo, sailed through the House on a 398-1 vote. The lone dissenter was Republican Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert. Thirty-two lawmakers did not vote. The bill had won unanimous approval in the Senate in May.

    “This bipartisan legislation updates federal law by eliminating references that contribute to the stigmatization of mental health conditions,” Conrad had said in a speech on the Senate floor about the 21st Century Language Act of 2012. The term has its roots in the belief that mental illness ebbed and flowed with the phases of the moon.

    “Recently, a North Dakota constituent contacted my office to express support for legislative efforts to remove this outdated and inappropriate language from federal law,” Conrad continued. “Sen. Crapo and I agree that federal law should reflect the 21st-century understanding of mental illness and disease and that the continued use of this pejorative term has no place in the U.S. Code.”

    The change enjoyed broad support from mental health advocacy organizations.
    One of the affected sections of federal law currently reads: “The words ‘insane’ and ‘insane person’ and ‘lunatic’ shall include every idiot, lunatic, insane person, and person non compos mentis.”

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/congress-votes-strike-lunatic-federal-law-191704327–election.html

  86. Anon E. Moose says:

    Homes Are Still Cheap

    They are in some places, just not here.

    I was listening to Dave Ramsey on the radio. People from all over the country call with tales of woe about their $120,000 mortgage and $40,000 income. Even if you double the income here to $80k or more $100k, no house you’d want to live in will sell for $240k-$300k.

    I tried the real estate arbitrage thing — take a nice haircut to move somewhere cheap (I think NC was the prototype destination); after taxes and mortgage, you still have more net disposable income that you would slogging it out here in NNJ. What held me back was the parochialism of my industry — if you didn’t have demonstrated ties to their area, they didn’t want to talk to you. I guess they thought you’d be a flight risk. And there’s something too that. Headhunters make a mint cold calling an placing people who moved to Texas ‘searching for gold’ and subsequently can’t stand living there.

    When I was on the outside looking in, living in the ‘outer districts’ and pining to get into ‘Capital City’ I used to think it was the other way around — you double your income, you double your cost of living, and what you have left to blow should be double, too, right? Well, as the ration above shows, its not neatly double. Once you get past basic living (food, clothing), the house sucks up all the oxygen left in the budget. It is reflected in inflated property costs — e.g., a 2-liter of Coke may cost more in NJ than in NC, but not by the same ratio of relative earning power of the people living there, and particularly not by the ratio of relative house prices.

    Its a windfall to those who bought property when the ratio was more modest. Similar benefits will only accrue to the present cohort of buyers if they manage to screw the next generations by that much more (maybe kind of like how an abused kid grows up to be an abuser?).

  87. Anon E. Moose says:

    Money [89];

    “Lunatic” is a word that should be reserved to describe members of Clowngress.

    The lunatic is in your head.
    http://youtu.be/DLOth-BuCNY

  88. McDullard says:

    Eddie #50,

    The phone access program was there from Reagan’s time. It is probably cheaper to give wireless phones with few minutes on them to people than to lay copper or fiber to remote places. It is paid from the charges that the phone companies always tagged on regular customers. Does it seem like you are paying way more attention on that issue than it deserves.

  89. Anon E. Moose says:

    McDullard [93];

    The phone access program was there from Reagan’s time.

    Exactly how is inner city Toldeo too “remote” to get telephone service without “Bommaphones”? That’s where Bommaphone lady was, inner city Ohio. Not rural. Nice try.

    Plus, if like most liberals believe, history began yesterday, then saying “Reagan did it!” is a convincing argument. For the rest of us, not so much. Strike two.

  90. McDullard says:

    Tax experts…

    I wonder why there isn’t much push for letting all W’s tax cuts expire? The way I see it is taxes were cut because “there was too much money coming in”, turns out not to be the case, so we pump back taxes up.

    My suspicion is that the “undo W” issue isn’t even being debated because of the impacts on dividends and capital gains — that’s where some of the big players make their money.

  91. Njescapee says:

    91 Moose, I risked a lot to move away from NJ. Luckily I am able to work remote from Key West 7 years and counting. I admit it was dumb luck but glad I got the heck away from that NE treadmill. Quality of life is worth more than a little extra money. Life is better than good here in the tropics.

  92. McDullard says:

    Moose…

    “Since 1985, the Lifeline program has provided a discount on phone service for qualifying low-income consumers to ensure that all Americans have the opportunities and security that phone service brings, including being able to connect to jobs, family and emergency services.” [from fcc.gov/lifeline]

    I do not understand why there is so much controversy about this program. Cell phones are probably cheaper than land lines — and are immensely more useful. The minutes are also fairly limited. There is no potential for large-scale abuse by small fish (vs, e.g. the 10k “special wheelchair” that medicare covers). I think it should be a non-issue. We are not talking about iPhones with unlimited talk and data plans here…

  93. Confused in NJ says:

    7. Fully people buying houses never really look in crawl space but really that is where the money and problems are. Now I just got to fix a harmless vertical crack in foundation in crawl space. Damm flood put a five foot crack floor to ceiling in it.

    Do epoxy or foam injection first, then cover crack with epoxy paste with trowel.

  94. Punch My Ticket says:

    Moose [91],

    I used to think it was the other way around — you double your income, you double your cost of living, and what you have left to blow should be double, too, right? Well, as the ration above shows, its not neatly double. Once you get past basic living (food, clothing), the house sucks up all the oxygen left in the budget.

    Of course. Something is always going to suck up the surplus. Ask any economist. The surplus inevitably ends up in the hands of the owners of what’s scarce. Land within a plausible distance of work. First rate medical care providers. Quality education. If you control any or all of those three things in modern society, you will do very well.

  95. Punch My Ticket says:

    For Nom …

    This paper compares state-by-state estimates of the top marginal effective tax rates (METRs) on wages, interest, dividends, capital gains, and business income for tax year 2012 to the rates scheduled for 2013 under scheduled law. Scheduled tax law for 2013 assumes the expiration of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and the new PPACA taxes. Overall, the average top METR on wage income is scheduled to increase by approximately six percentage points (41.8 percent to 47.8 perent), while taxes on dividends would increase the greatest (19.0 percent to 47.9 percent). The top METRs on wages, dividends, interest, and partnership/sole proprietor income would exceed 50 percent in California, Hawaii, and New York City.

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2176526

    I am so glad I’m gone.

  96. Happy Renter says:

    [97] “I do not understand why there is so much controversy about this program. Cell phones are probably cheaper than land lines — and are immensely more useful. The minutes are also fairly limited. There is no potential for large-scale abuse by small fish (vs, e.g. the 10k “special wheelchair” that medicare covers). I think it should be a non-issue. We are not talking about iPhones with unlimited talk and data plans here…”

    I do not understand why I need to pay for someone’s telephone. Period. OK fine, fine, I don’t want some poor soul stuck at home with an emergency unable to dial 911. So I will say, I don’t understand why I need to pay for someone’s telephone for anything other than emergency purposes. And I don’t understand why anyone could possibly have 250 minutes worth of “emergencies” per month.

    And I prefer that safety net programs like providing free emergency phone service for people (so that they can reach emergency medical/fire/police assistance from home when needed) provide demonstrably bare-bones safety-net level services, not tack on extra bennies like morphing into cell phones with 250 minutes of use for whatever-you-want.

    Because if the “free” emergency phones were land-lines, or perhaps cell phones with emergency-only use, I am quite sure many of those receiving “free” (taxpayer funded) cell phone plans would miraculously find a way to pay for their own darn cell phone, and could then be removed from the rolls of the emergency phone folks.

  97. Fast Eddie says:

    McDullard,

    It’s Reagan’s fault, it’s Bush’s fault… f*cking whatever. Let’s just call it the “ponies for everyone” program and I’m totally onboard. Get while the gettins good. I’m on that side now. In the word’s of Michael Corleone, “My father’s way of doing things is over.” F.uck whoever’s gotta pay for it, as long as I’m getting some. Let them raise the top rate to 90% for all I give a f.uck. We’re heading towards the wall so politics is not even the discussion any longer. Kumbaya and all that good sh1t. Loot the system, bust the place up and then light a f.ucking match.

  98. Ernest Money says:

    We should just replace the Constitution with this one sentence.

    “Loot the system, bust the place up and then light a f.ucking match.”

  99. Brian says:

    Hydraulic cement. And use gloves.

    7. Fully people buying houses never really look in crawl space but really that is where the money and problems are. Now I just got to fix a harmless vertical crack in foundation in crawl space. Damm flood put a five foot crack floor to ceiling in it.

  100. Ragnar says:

    Punch,
    Don’t worry, good ole Uncle Warren B. said he never heard of anyone making investment or business decisions based on taxes, so it’s ok to hike taxes – making him the only superrich man we can all trust. Ignore all those people buying munis, companies moving investments to lower cost, lower tax countries. Businessmen will just keep on working and paying more and more taxes as if nothing ever happened.

  101. Ragnar says:

    The bommaphone expense is minimal compared to that crack ho’s free healthcare, state-run miseducation, foodstamps, and disability payments. What really bugs me is seeing idiots whooping and hollering about how much they enjoy looting and spending other people’s money, thanks to the looter in chief.

  102. xmonger says:

    JJ,

    Good to see you and family are alive and well! That’s the only thing that matters. Everything else can be remedied by money.

    Also, sorry to hear about the in-town parasites. I learned a lot about myself during this disaster; mainly that I may be better suited to an apocalyptic world. It sounds like you did just fine as well.

    Good luck with the continued recovery.

  103. Anon E. Moose says:

    McDullard [97];

    I wasn’t disputing that some version of welfare phone service existence since the Reagan Administration. After all, as we know, any expansion of government spending immediately becomes indispensable, and it would be Cruel! Heartless! Draconian! to curtail a penny of it.

    All I was saying that “Reagan Started it!” is a slogan, not an argument. There’s also a difference between wiring sparsely populated rural areas for telephone service and doling out cells phones in comparatively dense inner cities. When my grandparents lived near the Brooklyn Navy Yards, they could open the window and call anyone they needed, no phone — wired or cellular — was necessary.

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