October Case Shiller

The Case Shiller HPI for October is due out at 9am this morning, consensus is for the big Composite-20 to be up anywhere from 3.5% to 4.4% year over year (NSA).

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in October: Economy

Home prices climbed more than forecast in October, indicating a rebounding real-estate market will bolster the U.S. economy for the first time in seven years.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 4.3 percent from October 2011, the biggest 12-month advance since May 2010, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 30 economists in a Bloomberg survey projected a 4 percent gain.

Property values will probably keep heading higher as record-low mortgage rates, a growing population and an improving economy spur demand for housing. The turnaround in real estate is buoying household confidence and wealth, one reason why consumer spending is improving even as concern mounts that lawmakers will fail to stave off looming tax increases.

“The housing market is definitely starting to recover,” said Ryan Wang, an economist with HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, who’s the second-best forecaster of the S&P/Case- Shiller index over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Higher property values have “added about a trillion dollars to household wealth just since the beginning of this year.”

The boost to household net worth “will provide an important benefit for consumers and for the broader economy,” Wang said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to October Case Shiller

  1. Fabius Maximus says:

    Back to the salt mine.

  2. grim says:

    Looking for recommendations for saving options for the little one (aside from the 529). In the past, it was a no-brainer to set up a savings account for the kid, maybe a CD, interest rates weren’t too bad, but today, putting money in the savings account is worthless. That said, any suggestions on options for savings? Ideally, someplace that we can stash away holiday/birthday cash and get a least a bit on interest on it. I think the key here is going to be the lowest fee model possible that allows for smaller deposits (a few hundred $ at a time for example). If there is an option for recurring deposit to waive fees, that’s fine as well.

    I never saw a penny of my holiday/bday cash growing up, it all went into savings. When one day we found out our neighbor needed cash and wanted to sell his Wrangler, my mom went over to the bank, pulled out 12 grand in $100s, and handed it to me, and I went over, knocked on the door, and bought my first car. I’m sure the little one won’t care about missing out on all the chinese crap anyhow, I didn’t.

  3. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    Caps me with what? A pound of weed?

    Comrade Nom Deplume in heavily armed Utah says:
    December 22, 2012 at 3:45 pm
    [7] dope,

    From all related causes? Just pick up a paper or get into the business yourself. See how long you last before someone caps you.

  4. Phoenix says:

    “I’m sure the little one won’t care about missing out on all the chinese crap anyhow, I didn’t.”
    I have trinket relatives that love to buy this crap and shower it on my kid, it ends up all over my house. Better off throwing cash into the fireplace, you get some heat from it.
    And if anyone has an answer for Grim, please share it with me.

  5. Phoenix says:

    Anyone hear about changes in the Medicaid “look back” period. Someone told me in 2013 it went from 5 to 7 years.

  6. Peace, Love, Dope says:

    Exactly. The “imminent” missile attacks that never came. You know what they say “If you are in a poker game and you can’t tell who the mark is, YOU ARE THE MARK.”

    Snatch up all your guns and ammo, build your zombie proof compounds (even make up cute names – “nompound!” – to advertise how big of a sucker you are) and all the other stuff you need to protect yourself for the Russian missil…I mean hordes of blacks, latins and hippies that are coming for your guns and money. Somewhere there is a multi-billionaire raising his glass and toasting what a sucker you are. He’s probably the grandson of the guy who sold your grandpa his missile bunker.

    Grim says:
    December 22, 2012 at 11:24 am
    9 – Repurposed as Tuscan-style wine cellars. The ones built out of block are really easy to refrigerate.

  7. Brian says:

    2 –
    Dunno other than the 529. It worked out for me because I work for the company that manages the plan and I don’t pay any fees. I can even have my kids relatives put money directly into their account online if they want to give them something for their birthdays. I like that because when they’re older I don’t want them to realize they got the money for their birthday and go and spend it on worthless chinese crap.

  8. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  9. Mike says:

    2- Buy Disney stock, frame it and than hang it in the bedroom

  10. JSMC says:

    #9 might be kidding, but at this point, that might not be far off: Maybe look into an S&P 500 index fund or a balanced stock/bond fund. I know that’s contrary to what most of us are supposed to be taught as kids (saving as opposed to gambling), but that might be your best shot for long term returns at this point.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    December 25, 2012 at 11:05 am
    Board Q: going rate on 30-year mortgage and any good recommendations for an originator used in NJ during the last 6 months or so?

  12. chicagofinance says:

    Grim use a 529….don’t get spooked that NJ doesn’t give a tax-deduction, the federal piece on exempting the gains is a very significant feature. Given the “pay your fair share” mantra, you will be surprised at the value that will be generated. When I get into work later, I will track down the latest Morningstar white paper. You can make your own decision, but don’t use the NJ plans. Although they are fine, not great. The historic reported drawbacks of these plans in terms of high expenses and bad selection has been mitigated somewhat.

  13. Richard says:

    Grim most brokers will let you easily create a Custodial Brokerage account. I think tax free up to 950 income pa, then child tax, then your tax rate (kiddie tax) after $1900. Gives more options than simple savings.

  14. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [2];

    I liked NY’s 529 plan because the investment options were Vanguard run. I haven’t looked too deeply into the NJ plan, but am considering just going into a Vanguard 529 and passing on the NJ state tax deduction.

    Wish I knew more about how 529s are considered by schools for financial aid. I’m not warm to the idea of filling out a FAFSA form disclosing all my finances, then sitting down to negotiate price with the colleges. Kind of like those REOs that required you to apply to a mortgage with the selling bank before they would consider your offer. Right…

  15. grim says:

    My assumption is that the 529 is a must, however, is it worth it to establish any kind of secondary account, whether it be a simple savings account at the local bank, or a custodial account through a brokerage. Simple savings is probably the easiest and most flexible, but provides little benefit other than being a different mattress to put cash under. The custodial obviously has some risks, but the options for investment are much better long term.

    I guess my question is whether the 529 is so advantaged that even a custodial account can’t measure up, and that I really should just be piling all the money into the 529.

  16. In the know in NJ says:

    Why you should be careful buying in Hudson County or anywhere in NJ & why you should challenge your taxes?

    WEEHAWKEN- The township’s tax collector has alleged in a federal lawsuit that Mayor Richard Turner knowingly ordered township employees to “assess illegally high taxes” on luxury waterfront properties to boost revenue.
    Joseph Fredericks, the tax collector, asserts in a lawsuit filed by a township police officer that Turner ordered the high assessments and discussed manipulating tax levies to fill township coffers, according to the 2010 court document.

    “At times when it was politically expedient, Mayor Turner would have me manipulate the collection of garbage levy to advance his political agenda, such as the last May election when minimum garbage levy was collected,” the document reads.

    Turner demanded Fredericks hit waterfront properties with levies as high as 30 percent more than they should have been, Fredericks claims.

    “These allegations are false . . . bogus,” said David Corrigan, Weehawken’s labor attorney, who added that, as tax collector, Fredericks “would not participate in or be involved in” calculating property tax levies.

    Turner said that if property owners think their taxes are too high they have a right to appeal, and Weehawken wins the majority of those cases. “If (taxes) were artificially inflated, we would lose the cases,” he said.

    Fredericks’ allegations of Turner manipulating tax levies are contained in a four-page certification he filed in September 2010 in the lawsuit police Lt. Richard DeCosmis filed against the township.

    In that suit, originally filed in October 2008, DeCosmis claims he was unlawfully harassed by Turner and other township officials.

    Fredericks’ certification in DeCosmis’ case was meant to show that Turner is “the one person responsible for setting policy and managing the day-to-day affairs in Weehawken,” the document reads.

    In a separate lawsuit filed in 2011 by Fredericks, he argues that Turner, Township Manager James Marchetti and others retaliated against him when he made his claims in 2010.

    Fredericks alleges that Turner, Marchetti and others denied him promised back-pay, withheld pay raises and generally created a hostile work environment.

    Federal Judge William J. Martini last month dismissed most of the township’s attempts to scuttle Fredericks’ suit.

    Turner called the charges legal “blackmail” because the township wouldn’t settle with Fredericks.

    “These lawsuits have no bearing in reality,” the mayor said.

    Fredericks seeks about $1 million in punitive damages from Turner and about $250,000 in back pay, according to Louis A. Zayas, his attorney.

    Fredericks’ claims “should be investigated by the Attorney General’s Office,” Zayas told The Jersey Journal.

    “I don’t know why it’s never been done,” he said.

  17. Anon E. Moose says:

    Redux [14];

    Chifi [12];

    Thanks, no NJ tax deduction. I’d forgotten. I knew there was a reason I didn’t like the NJ plan. NY deduction never amounted to much anyway. Pls post the white paper link if you can.

  18. zieba says:

    Back from AZ and UT. Man, this is a beautiful country if one gets out of NJ to see it.

  19. Richard says:

    I use the Fidelity online 529 which is NH. I can’t remember why the NJ one wasn’t good, I think you had to use one provider. http://www.nj.com/insidejersey/index.ssf/2010/09/why_new_jerseys_529_plan_is_no_1.html

  20. Pete says:


    What about opening a treasury direct account and buying I bonds? Interest is exempt from state taxes and could be exempted from federal if using towards education. Could be a supplement to a 529 or just used as a low interest savings account.

  21. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re : College Savings for Kids

    You would want to be aware of how the College Admissions Dept treats money in the Kid’s Name……it is counted 100% towards the “Expected Family Contribution”. If the money is still in the Parent’s name, it is counted at a small fraction of the EFC.

    Also, there is a way to buy US Savings Bonds such that they are Tax-Free when cashed in and used for College Expenses. Purchased today at a deep discount and held for 18 years there’s a nice payoff when they are redeemed. Of course, that relies on there being a US Treasury in 2031.


  22. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    HA !! Or what Pete said !!

  23. Carlito says:

    Nice you think of Jr , but max out your contribution to yours and wife ret accounts first. IRA, SEP, 401k, whatever applies

  24. grim says:

    S&P Case Shiller – NY Metro – As of October 2012 (Unadjusted)

    Low Tier (Under %268,902)
    Up 1.23% YOY
    Up 8.96% from Trough (April 2012)

    Mid Tier ($268,902 – $443,246)
    Down 0.49% YOY
    Up 4.64% from Trough (March 2012)

    High Tier (Over $442,246)
    Down 1.5% YOY
    Up 4.62% from Trough (March 2012)

    Down 1.24% YOY
    Up 4.99% from Trough (March 2012)

    NY Metro Condos
    Up 5.78% YOY
    Up 10.31% from Trough (February 2012)

  25. nwnj says:

    We opened the NV Vanguard 529. Gov and wall st have conspired to make sure they get a piece of all savings. There are no othere good options that I’ve identified. NJs plan fees are prohibitive.

    Pros of the Vanguard plan are the ridiculously low fees and multitude of options. 3 aged based portfolios and 19 custom portfolios.

    Cons are that you can only exchange the funds once per year, and since the minumum to open is 3k so it’s hard to average in. Welcome to the casino economy kid. $50 minimum on contributions.

    They do give a nice printout that you can pass out so friends/family can mail money straight to vanguard but I don’t think they can electronically gift.

  26. nwnj says:

    Hard to get excited about treasuries when the fed is buying 90% of new issue. I’d rather buy gold/silver.

  27. grim says:

    Here is my comment on the S&P from last month:

    If prices hold flat at this point, mid tier will turn positive in the next 1-2 months, and low tier (Under $269k) will go positive in 2-3. High Tier (Over $443k) will be the last to turn).

    Low Tier has now turned positive (in addition to the Condo index). Mid Tier appears to be on the cusp of turning as well (Down only a half a percent year over year). At this point, looks like there is a strong chance that the Mid and High Tiers turn positive by December.

  28. Brian says:


    New Jersey Governor vetoes 529 tax deduction bill


  29. grim says:

    25 – Primary source of funds would be gifted, so that wouldn’t necessarily apply. As much as I’d like for everyone to gift towards my own retirement, that ain’t happening.

  30. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Home Prices Post Gains as Recovery Keeps Pace

    U.S. single-family home prices rose in October, reinforcing the view the domestic real estate market is improving and should bolster the economy in 2013, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday.

    The S&P/Case Shillercomposite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, stronger than the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

    “Looking over this report, and considering other data on housing starts and sales, it is clear that the housing recovery is gathering strength,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, said in a statement.

  31. HouseWhineWine says:

    19) Zieba- I totally agree. Welcome back to the congestion and crowded living spaces here in N.J. The scenery in Utah was even more amazing that I had envisioned.

  32. Tiny Violin says:

    Re 19, 34. Southern Utah is among one of the most beautiful places on earth. As is northern Arizona. Hate to come back here after spending time there.

  33. grim says:

    Oh, give me land, lots of land under starry skies above
    Don’t fence me in
    Let me ride through the wide open country that I love
    Don’t fence me in
    Let me be by myself in the evenin’ breeze
    And listen to the murmur of the cottonwood trees
    Send me off forever but I ask you please
    Don’t fence me in

    Props to Porter, but David Byrne’s version is by far the best.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    2012 white paper has been suppressed, but here is the 2011…..the gist is there, and Brian posted the 2012 important hightlights……

  35. chicagofinance says:

    529 put in uncle or grandparent’s name, so it is off the radar…..hold it back until final year of college financial aid is locked in and then disperse…..unless you have more than one year of expenses covered…..

  36. chicagofinance says:

    grim: can you e-mail me your new home address?

  37. grim says:

    Sent to your work email

  38. Ernest Money says:

    By the time Grim’s kid is in kolledge, tuition will be about $3,000/yr.

  39. POS cape says:


    Oh bury me now
    On the lone prairie
    Where the wild coyotes
    Will howl o’er me

    Bugs Bunny 1942

  40. Brian says:

    Just started to snow in Essex county. How big is this storm? Do I need to warm up the generator?

  41. 250k says:

    529: went with Nebraska’s plan back in 2008 as it had the best mix of funds to choose from. Kiplinger rates 529s as well though not every year, fees are not great but that comes with options to some degree. Biggest issue of starting to invest in 2008 was, it was 2008. Kid #1 would have had the same investment return at today’s CD rates.

    Beginning to think a custodial account might be better as any tax planning I try to do now will be undone by Congress by the time kid goes to college. Hoping the rest of the kids go into a trade as their education savings sits in a savings account.

    chifi, is 529 the only way you are investing for your kids or just part of an overall strategy?

  42. joyce says:


    I’m glad gun holders are now on par with sexual predators.

    What took so long?

  43. joyce says:


    Hey genius. Why don’t you include the government and local schools in that list of suckers? I’m pretty sure they performed drills, regularly, hiding underneath desks in case of an attack.

  44. Richard says:

    I’d much rather have a sex offender live next door than someone with an assault rifle.

  45. Brian says:


  46. joyce says:



  47. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [46];

    It’s a fascist leftist tradition with a long pedigree. Like when the Democrats wanted the NAACP’s membership lists, for similar reasons of initimding supporters of the (real) Civil Rights agenda — which the Democrats vehemently (and often violently) opposed. Or, more recently, when the party of tolerance and diversity threatened violence upon donors to California’s Prop. 8, courtesy of donor ‘hit’ lists similarly made publicly searchable.

  48. grim says:

    Just an FYI – the sex offender isn’t good for your property resale value.

  49. Richard says:

    No not sarcastic.

    I wouldn’t really want to live next to either, but a) most of the people on the register are for doing it with 14yo’s so not really a threat and b) if you did have a really bad pervert at least you can keep an eye on your kids which is better than a gun nut as you never know if you’ll get hit by cross fire when they unload a clip at a burglar or have their kid play with it like a toy or go crazy and start taking out random people.

  50. chicagofinance says:

    Nothing is in my name, my wife’s, or my kids, although they are listed as beneficiaries of certain things………..

    250k says:
    chifi, is 529 the only way you are investing for your kids or just part of an overall strategy?

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Richard [54];

    most of the people on the register are for doing it with 14yo’s so not really a threat

    You think so? How old are your daughters?

  52. grim says:

    54 – What Richard is saying is you can always show up next door with a baseball bat and have a “discussion” and come to an “understanding” about the situation. Besides, when the sex offender is found dead in the ravine a few blocks down, nobody is going to ask questions.

    It’s magazine, not clip. Clip is ghetto slang.

  53. grim says:

    55 – You don’t think disclosure requirements are going to change in the next few years to eliminate the ‘loophole’? Sure, you could always claim the beneficiary changed whilst the kid was already through the first few years of college.

  54. Richard says:

    Maybe its just what I’m used to. I haven’t lived in the country or in a state where guns are everywhere. Just like a Texan is probably afraid to live in NY and not have a gun, I’m not comfortable in a town where lots of households are armed.

  55. joyce says:

    I guess that’s fair.

    But really? I know I know nothing about you, but I just don’t believe you’d choose to live next to a criminal when the alternative is a non-criminal.

  56. Anon E. Moose says:

    Richard [59];

    Maybe its just what I’m used to. I haven’t lived in the country or in a state where guns are everywhere. Just like a Texan is probably afraid to live in NY and not have a gun, I’m not comfortable in a town where lots of households are armed.

    You prefer your warm cloak of ignorance, then. I’m quite certain that there are far more firearms and you or Ms. Cyndee Royale (Yes, that’s how she spells it, maybe reminder of a former profession?), editor of the White PLains Journal News who published that list, are aware of in those places where you’ve felt ‘comfortable’. Your comfort was predicated on your ignorance of them, not the actual level of risk they posed to you.

  57. grim says:

    61 – As of a survey in 2001, the number of households with a gun in NJ was estimated at 12.3%. Some will look at that as a low number (it is in comparison), but when you drive home, mentally tick off every 10th house you pass to put it into context. NY was a touch higher at 18%. Texas is not amongst the highest ownership, but I recall the number being in the mid 30s (which I believe was on-par with Penn.)

  58. relo says:

    Forget Nompound, it’s time to leave the planet.

  59. xolepa says:

    Worked a gig over 20 years ago at Pa Power&Light(PP&L) in Allentown center. True gun culture. One programmer/hillbilly brought in a revolver to show off. No one blinked. Down the block you could get the deer hunter special – a truly massive bag of fresh roasted peanuts old school style. Guns and beer. They did not like me. I was the only out of stater working at that company. But, I made the mainframe talk to the ‘hot’ red PC located in their nuclear control center. They needed the reports that app would spit out.

  60. chicagofinance says:

    It is going to vary by school….the FAFSA no, but that info is just a database that school’s use as a universal input…..if they want you to open the kimono more, then so be it…..don’t worry, your kid is going to be a top scholar athlete, so it will be an automatic free ride everywhere….

    grim says:
    December 26, 2012 at 4:06 pm
    55 – You don’t think disclosure requirements are going to change in the next few years to eliminate the ‘loophole’? Sure, you could always claim the beneficiary changed whilst the kid was already through the first few years of college.

  61. chicagofinance says:

    after you take out urban and rural areas…..it may not be so high….

    grim says:
    December 26, 2012 at 4:20 pm
    61 – As of a survey in 2001, the number of households with a gun in NJ was estimated at 12.3%. Some will look at that as a low number (it is in comparison), but when you drive home, mentally tick off every 10th house you pass to put it into context. NY was a touch higher at 18%. Texas is not amongst the highest ownership, but I recall the number being in the mid 30s (which I believe was on-par with Penn.)

  62. Ernest Money says:

    richard (48)-

    I’d much rather have an assault rifle. Then, I don’t have to worry about my next door neighbors.

  63. Ernest Money says:

    I nominate Richard for biggest NJRER Simpleton of 2012.

    And, he had to beat out some heady competition (like yome and cobbler) to win my nomination.

  64. Ernest Money says:

    Arm the children, for God’s sake.

  65. cobbler says:

    we have too much concern about privacy, labeling and stereotyping, about the civil liberties of people who have horrifically distorted thinking. In our concern for the rights of people with mental illness, we have come to neglect the rights of ordinary Americans to be safe from the fear of being shot — at home and at schools, in movie theaters, houses of worship and shopping malls.


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