North Jersey Contracts – January 2013

(Source GSMLS, except Bergen- NJMLS) – Updated with 2011 Data

January Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-

Bergen County
January 2011 – 377
January 2012 – 510
January 2013 – 568 (Up 11.4% YOY, Up 50.7% Two Year)

Essex County
January 2011 – 198
January 2012 – 204
January 2013 – 306 (Up 50.0% YOY, Up 54.5% Two Year)

Hunterdon County
January 2011 – 55
January 2012 – 62
January 2013 – 98 (Up 58.1% YOY, Up 78.2% Two Year)

Morris County
January 2011 – 240
January 2012 – 261
January 2013 – 341 (Up 30.7% YOY, Up 42.1% Two Year)

Passaic County
January 2011 – 122
January 2012 – 137
January 2013 – 217 (Up 58.4% YOY, Up 77.9% Two Year)

Somerset County
January 2011 – 147
January 2012 – 176
January 2013 – 230 (Up 30.7% YOY, Up 56.5% Two Year)

Sussex County
January 2011 – 59
January 2012 – 106
January 2013 – 125 (Up 18.1% YOY, Up 111.9% Two Year)

Union County
January 2011 – 171
January 2012 – 211
January 2013 – 259 (Up 22.7% YOY, Up 51.5% Two Year)

Warren County
January 2011 – 44
January 2012 – 58
January 2013 – 77 (Up 32.8% YOY, Up 75% Two Year)

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123 Responses to North Jersey Contracts – January 2013

  1. grim says:

    Extremely strong performance and we’re now compounding on top of last years gains.

  2. cobbler says:

    Second? [and Warren seems to be up, too]

  3. Anon E. Moose says:

    Run, baby, run! [says the homedebtor]. Mania + inflation = :-)

  4. Njescapee says:

    Dou-che Bank approved our short sale purchase. Nice condo less than 20 yrs old about 1100 sf plus garage. We paid $81k previous purchaser paid $205k in 2005.

  5. grim says:

    Housing just got more affordable for lots of folks…

    From HousingWire:

    Freddie Mac: 84% of refinancing homeowners maintained or reduced debt

    Freddie Mac released its fourth quarter analysis Monday, revealing that 84% of refinancing homeowners either maintained or reduced their principal balance by paying-in additional money at the closing table.

    This percentage barely fell short of the record 85% during the fourth quarter of 2011.

    Of these borrowers, 46% maintained the same loan amount, while 39% of homeowners reduced their principal balance

    Interest rate reduction averaged 1.8 percentage points, or a savings of about 33% in interest rate, totaling the largest percent reduction in the 27 years of Freddie Mac’s analysis.

    “On average, borrowers who refinanced reduced their interest rate by about 1.8 percentage points. On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $3,600 in interest during the next 12 months,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

    For loans that were financed via the Home Affordable Refinance Program, the median depreciation in property values was 29%, the prior loan had a median age of about 5.9 years and the HARP borrower with a 30-year fixed-rate refinance averaged a 2.0 percentage-point interest-rate reduction.

  6. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Homes Sell in Two Weeks With Low Supply for Spring Buyers

    The U.S. housing market, entering its busiest season, is tipped so far in favor of sellers that almost a third of listings in areas from Washington, D.C., to Denver and Seattle are under contract in two weeks or less.

    One home in Washington attracted 168 offers in December and sold for almost twice the asking price. About 70 people lined up last month for a lottery to select buyers for four available houses in a San Ramon, California, subdivision where, in August, bidders camped for weeks to secure purchases.

    A plunge in U.S. home listings to a 12-year low is driving up prices and preventing transactions from returning to historically normal levels. Many potential sellers are holding off until values rise more, while investors are snatching up distressed properties before they reach the market. Builders, reporting their best orders in years, can’t increase production fast enough. As buyers seek to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates, the supply and demand imbalance threatens to further limit deals as the key spring selling season approaches.

    “There is just no inventory for buyers,” said Bob Cilk, an agent with Re/Max Accord in Pleasanton, California, where only 27 single-family houses are available for sale, about a third of the normal level. “There are lots of losers in the marketplace now. When you have multiple offers, there are several losers and only one winner for each home.”

  7. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume. Apparently. says:

    It’s too early Mike.

  9. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    McGraw-Hill, S&P Sued by U.S. Over Mortgage-Bond Ratings

    McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP) and its Standard & Poor’s unit were sued by the U.S. over claims S&P knowingly understated the credit risks of bonds and derivatives that were central to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

    The U.S. Justice Department filed a complaint yesterday in in Los Angeles, accusing McGraw-Hill and S&P of three types of fraud. McGraw-Hill tumbled the most in 25 years yesterday when it said it expected the lawsuit, the first federal case against a ratings company for grades related to the credit crisis.

    S&P issued credit ratings on more than $2.8 trillion of residential mortgage-backed securities and about $1.2 trillion of collateralized-debt obligations from September 2004 through October 2007, according to the complaint. S&P downplayed the risks on portions of the securities to gain more business from the investment banks that issued them, the U.S. said.

    “It’s a new use of this statute,” Claire Hill, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who has written about the ratings firms, said in a phone interview from Minneapolis. “This is not a line to my knowledge that has been taken before.”

    “A DOJ lawsuit would be entirely without factual or legal merit,” S&P said in a statement yesterday before the case was filed. “It would disregard the central facts that S&P reviewed the same subprime mortgage data as the rest of the market, including U.S. government officials who in 2007 publicly stated that problems in the subprime market appeared to be contained.”

    S&P, in its statement, cited court rulings that have dismissed challenges to the opinions of ratings firms. The company also said it planned to fight any lawsuits.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Let’s get it straight for the 153rd time:

    1) There’s no inventory here because people can’t sell. When you’re 6 digits underwater, there’s nothing you can do but keep paying or walk away. There’s more inventory clogging the pipeline than listed for public view.

    2) Any increase in transactions is a result of cronyism and nepotism. The transactions are recorded but you never saw the property. If you think this is not the case, then you grew up in some white bread town called Pleasantville.

  11. Essex says:

    10. Maybe the lack of mobility is a hidden plus. More time to pay down those notes. More millionaires buy and hold real estate than do the constant upgrade. Or so I read somewhere.

  12. grim says:

    Morris/Passaic/Somerset (I look at this as the GSMLS holy trinity, pretty good cross section that saves me from having to add up every county individually.)

    January Inventory
    2001 – 4606
    2002 – 4923
    2003 – 5440
    2004 – 5312
    2005 – 5281
    2006 – 7463
    2007 – 9543
    2008 – 9417
    2009 – 8769
    2010 – 8484
    2011 – 8788
    2012 – 8579
    2013 – 6934

    Inventory still has room to get even tighter and still be within the realm of “normalcy”, as defined by the inventory levels during the early part of the 2000s.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    11. That’s one thing we agree on.

  14. Essex says:

    13. that and Les Pauls.

  15. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Year-on-year house price gain hits six-year high

    U.S. home prices grew 0.4% in December to stretch the year-on-year gain to 8.3%, the strongest advance since May 2006, CoreLogic said Tuesday. CoreLogic said 46 of 50 states registered gains for the year. Arizona has the strong year-on-year appreciation at 20.2%, though prices are down 39.8% from the peak. Nationally, prices are down 26.9% from the April 2006 peak. CoreLogic’s pending index forecasts a 1% monthly drop in January, reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown.

  16. JJ says:

    Exactly how was their gains last year? Many Many years ago when I worked in the controllers office, I calculated gains based on cost of funds, overhead cost, risk free rate etc.

    So housing is a 30 year commitment. 3% is the risk free rate (30 year treasury), minus overhead costs (costs to carry house) add in cost of funds, mortgage interest rates

    So I dont see a gain. I see a loss. I borrowed at 3.5%, had carrying costs of around 15K a year plus to get a 3% gain. Which is what homes went up. Then I need to assign a risk rating since housing is more risky.

    Houses according to hedgefunds, private equity the magic number is 8%. You need 8% return on investment annually after everything to make it a good investment.

    Back in housing glory days when we were pounding out 20% a year housing was amazing.

    Housing biggest advantage now is rich folk are concerned about new taxes and inflation and housing is a good investment either way.

    Housing other advantage is it is a physical asset folks can brag about. AKA I have a condo in the city, a shore house, five bedroom in upper saddle river. You cant brag you have money in the bank as it is socially unacceptable
    grim says:
    February 4, 2013 at 7:06 pm

    Extremely strong performance and we’re now compounding on top of last years gains.

  17. yome says:

    People that are under water are holding on because their mortgage suddenly became manageable through TARP. A $600k mortgage at 6% is equal to a $400k mortgage at 3.5% interest. Suddenly that $200k underwater is manageable. The ones with money are refinancing to get a shorter term mortgage at less than 3% and staying foot. There you go,youre chance of buying the POS is the person that is going tol loose a job ,if he does not move with the company.Oh Fannie and Freddie is giving them a chance to walk.
    If you dont want their POS,you need to shell out the price they want.I always said,In a town of well to do ,that dont need to sell.You can not knock on their door and tell them you want to buy their house but this is the going price.You need to offer them a premium to even for them consider packing.

  18. yome says:

    A 600k Mortgage at 6.5% is equal to a $400k house at 3.5% interest

  19. Brian says:

    So in a simple world, where demand exceeds supply, prices go up right?

    I remember reading Stan Humphrey’s theory on what would happen from here. He thinks people who were underwater will suddenly find themselves no longer underwater and will start to put their homes up for sale. This would seem to keep pricing in check and continue downward pressure on pricing. He seems to think housing may get going in fits and starts.

    However, just because a homeowner (borrower) suddelny finds themselves with equity, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll sell does it? They could just refinance. Or maybe even extract equity and put on that addition making the home more liveable. Moving and buying and selling a home can be a huge headache…. Not to mention many years have gone by since their home purchase and some underwater homewners have kids that have been growing up all this time. They have friends in the neighborhood and in the local school.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  20. Anon E. Moose says:

    Eddie, it doesn’t matter. Settle on the best of the lot, hold your nose and buy it anyway. Why?

    We Are All Going To Die From Inflation Says Bill Gross

    Or, pick up and leave the area. Go somewhere were price/income makes more sense, maybe somewhere land is cheap and plentiful so “people don’t buy used houses”. That plan didn’t work for me, so I bought the best thing I could find.

    In case folks are late getting to their seats and missed the opening act:

    Argentina Freezes Supermarket Prices To Halt Soaring Inflation

  21. yome says:

    They are still underwater but can manage the mortgage at a lower interest.They will not be able to sell at a lower price until home prices go up and catch up in price

    “He thinks people who were underwater will suddenly find themselves no longer underwater and will start to put their homes up for sale.”

  22. yome says:

    I TARP my 30 year 5.6% interest to 15 year 3% interest.In 5 years I retire, I will owe $180K and just tell my son to continue the payments for 10 years and give him the title.Beats buying and paying for 30 years.

  23. yome says:

    The smart ones did a deed in lieu a few years ago and buying at a cheaper and lower interest today

  24. JJ says:

    Bottom line Homeowners for most part are idiots and most lack any financial sense.

    For instance I will hole out till I break even on my home and get my 2004 price.

    You know what in 2020, they may get their 2004 price and walk away happy.

    Meanwhile they are forgetting about 16 years inflation, property taxes, mortgage payments and home insurance. Does not matter their little heads go I paid 500K I got back 500K wow I broke even.

    The smartest person I know in housing is my friend who bought in Feb 2000 and sold all his stocks. Sold Fall 2011 as he felt homes had little to go up but stocks/munis, corporate bonds had much more to rise. So sold cleared 1.5 million in market and is up to two million. He is renting. He will buy again. Maybe a year or two, maybe never. Interest/Dividend income is greater than rent so he lives for free. Homes pay no actual interest or dividends, they are like zero coupon bonds.

    Bottom line the smart person sold March 2009. Although houses are up 20% or so since then, stocks are up 110%, the stock person can get back in very easily. The really dumb person sold March 2009 and went to cash.

  25. yome says:

    JJ still refuse to add cost of renting in the equation

  26. joyce says:

    Although he did mention, what you consider a four letter word, inflation

    25.yome says:
    February 5, 2013 at 9:35 am
    JJ still refuse to add cost of renting in the equation

  27. Brian says:

    Grim what’s your feeling on mortgage rates. Will they be up this time next year?

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    yome [17],

    You need to offer them a premium to even for them consider packing.

    Very well. When the current contract on my house terminates, the price goes up 10%. I’m a half block from a NYC bus and within two minutes from a number of major highways.

  29. Ragnar says:

    There’s a house on my street that’s been abandoned for nearly 2 years. Before the owners disappeared it was listed for $999k. I suppose the banks are still trying to figure out what to do. This house should have sold long ago for about $700k. I wonder how long until this house becomes inventory, and wonder how many other houses are in this position, or are still inhabited by non-paying squatters?

  30. joyce says:

    On a similar note, my little cousin who can’t get the idea out of his head of buying a condo here in Northern Jersey had an interesting conversation at an open house the other day. The listeng agent said the asking price of $330,000 is non-negotiable even though that same unit sold for $220,000 in 2006. Any renovations done?… I was told very few.

    4.Njescapee says:
    February 4, 2013 at 9:49 pm
    Dou-che Bank approved our short sale purchase. Nice condo less than 20 yrs old about 1100 sf plus garage. We paid $81k previous purchaser paid $205k in 2005.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    In other words, pay up suckas, I’m not giving it away. It’s very competitive here.

  32. JJ says:

    Because you would never rent that size a place so hard to say.

    For instance. If I was renting I would never rent a single family home. Tenant pays heat, lawn service, snow removal etc. Plus it costs more to rent. I would find a rent stabilized building, tip aka pay off super and move in. I dont know why anyone would long term rent a single family house. It is a money pit.

    I was kinda homeless for two months last year after flood. Did I ever go lets rent a single family home for 3k a month? No, I mooched off mother in law, used Marriott points, stayed in a FEMA hotel and at end my uncle even offered me his summer house for free for rest of winter if house was not ready yet.

    I could also be a caretaker, super of a building etc. If I did not own I would never pay market rent.

    yome says:
    February 5, 2013 at 9:35 am

    JJ still refuse to add cost of renting in the equation

  33. yome says:

    If economy is growing there will always be higher interest rates and inflation.Best is a tamed 2% annual inflation.Nobody wants stagflation and worst deflation.

  34. joyce says:

    Debtors don’t want deflation.

  35. JJ says:

    Why do they care, they are not paying back anyhow.

    joyce says:
    February 5, 2013 at 9:55 am

    Debtors don’t want deflation.

  36. joyce says:

    Did you pay back your mortgage? Do you pay back margin loans? Were you not considered a debtor when you had said outstanding liabilities?

    Next question, child.

  37. grim says:

    JJ – Why didn’t you just walk away and rent anyway? By your own logic, you’d have been better off.

  38. joyce says:

    He has no logic, that’s why.

  39. JJ says:

    Grim it is asset allocation. March 2000 houses were a much better choice over stocks, March 2009 stocks were a better choice of houses and march 2007 long term bonds were a much better choice of houses or stocks.

    Today people are think houses are becoming a better value with Dow 14k and ten years at 2% so homes are rising.

    grim says:
    February 5, 2013 at 10:11 am

    JJ – Why didn’t you just walk away and rent anyway? By your own logic, you’d have been better off.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    And once again, property taxes never enter the equation.

  41. JJ says:

    I count property taxes. My house costs me 11K a year including property taxes and homeowners/flood insurance. I need to find a three bedroom for under 900 a month to make it worth renting. I think most homes are worth at most 300K from a purely financial perspective owning vs. renting

    Fast Eddie says:
    February 5, 2013 at 10:52 am

    And once again, property taxes never enter the equation.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    JJ,

    I wasn’t referencing you in particular, I’m talking about the housing cheerleaders in general who decide to bypass the “minor” details.

  43. xolepa says:

    (32)I could also be a caretaker, super of a building etc. If I did not own I would never pay market rent.

    What a clown. Where would his kids live? His wife would walk away. Do you know what kind of life a building sup has?

  44. xolepa says:

    Hey, after all, JJ is entertainment. Just like today’s singers, aka BeyondaBounce at the Super Bowl. Today’s entertainers are not made famous by their musical talents, but by their sex appeal. Seen an ugly performer lately on stage? Song and music don’t count. I would love to have had Janice Joplin play half-time at Superbowl, circa 68 or 69. That was real talent. The censors would have kicked her out of the stadium, though, that was the 60s mindset.

  45. Ragnar says:

    Xolepa,
    Adele? She’s less sexy than Joplin, right?

  46. JJ says:

    My Dad had a two bedroom rent controlled apt in the Bronx in 1974 we paid $109 a month rent. I dont recall us ever complaining. Perhaps Mr. xolepa you only use your belt to hold up your pants.

    My wife did complain a bit about my apt in the city, the hos out front were bad enough but the four guys who shared a 200 square foot apt by the entrance who hung out in lobby in their underware while doing drugs and the ground floor street level apt that sells nickle bags through the window.

    My kids are resilant. We did go back to house when it was freezing, half of it gutted, no heat or electric five in a room and did just fine. Maybe I should move them back to bronx to toughen them up and save on some rent.
    xolepa says:
    February 5, 2013 at 11:17 am

    (32)I could also be a caretaker, super of a building etc. If I did not own I would never pay market rent.

    What a clown. Where would his kids live? His wife would walk away. Do you know what kind of life a building sup has?

  47. JJ says:

    I give Jay Z credit, I used to know his ex, believe it or not she was also a pretty professional african american women. She was an internal auditor at of all places Bank of Ireland. She was like 22 fresh out of school.

    Jay Z is the ultimate Studio Z, Will Smith, LL Cool J and Jay Z could get beat up by the cast of the View in a pillow fight. Very nancy boyish. Even the rappers of today are fake. Give me NWA and Public Enemy anyday.

    xolepa says:
    February 5, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Hey, after all, JJ is entertainment. Just like today’s singers, aka BeyondaBounce at the Super Bowl. Today’s entertainers are not made famous by their musical talents, but by their sex appeal. Seen an ugly performer lately on stage? Song and music don’t count. I would love to have had Janice Joplin play half-time at Superbowl, circa 68 or 69. That was real talent. The censors would have kicked her out of the stadium, though, that was the 60s mindset.

  48. Ernest Money says:

    joyce (34)-

    Deflation they will get. Then, it will roll over into hyperinflation.

    Then, it will go from gray to black. Got .223?

    “Debtors don’t want deflation.”

  49. Ernest Money says:

    gary (40)-

    Cost-of-carry is never mentioned in RE calculations. Most agents can’t do the math, and we all got told early on to sidetrack anyone focusing on that kind of thing.

    People who think rationally make very different RE decisions than those whose veins are coursing with adrenaline.

    “And once again, property taxes never enter the equation.”

  50. Ernest Money says:

    BTW, sheeple, your “reform” gubnor Christie sold you down the river on property taxes.

  51. BearsFan says:

    “People who think rationally make very different RE decisions than those whose veins are coursing with adrenaline.”

    well said.

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat,

    The shell game is as lively as ever. I lost focus a little bit over time and then realized all the s.eduction involved with the con. I can’t agree with you more; it may very well be a generation before housing becomes a function of life again instead of a means to fund another’s lifestyle.

  53. Happy Renter says:

    [20] “Argentina Freezes Supermarket Prices To Halt Soaring Inflation”

    I’m told this is common in beautiful, vibrant countries.

  54. joyce says:

    “If you borrow to go to school, it may not be just the government that ends up coming after you if you can’t pay,” said Deanne Loonin, an attorney with the National Consumer Law Center, a nonprofit advocacy group in Boston. “We offer credit very easily.” If the student doesn’t benefit financially from the education, “the government or the school comes after them very aggressively.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-05/yale-suing-former-students-shows-crisis-in-loans-to-poor.html

    I don’t know, maybe stop offering loans to anyone with a pulse? Or better yet, scrap the program as it’s an epic failure. Or go with the govt’s idea and increase funding by 800%.

  55. JJ says:

    Back in the 1980s they had these 976 numbers for betting that gave you tips at $1.99 a minute. They would tell half to bet one way and the other half to bet the other way. The half that got it right they would sell them special deals to get insider tips and once again the half that got it right they would sell super high priced info, then they do it again and charge a fortune for a sure thing till bettor is bankrupt.

    realtors do that, they tell seller it is time to sell they tell buyer it is time to buy. If buyer makes money on deal they keep upselling him till eventually bubble is bust

    Ernest Money says:
    February 5, 2013 at 11:48 am

    gary (40)-

    Cost-of-carry is never mentioned in RE calculations. Most agents can’t do the math, and we all got told early on to sidetrack anyone focusing on that kind of thing.

    People who think rationally make very different RE decisions than those whose veins are coursing with adrenaline.

    “And once again, property taxes never enter the equation.”

  56. nwnj says:

    The student loan crisis is a national problem. A lot of that debt won’t be paid back, so I’m sure there will be another bailout for the creditors.

    But individually I have sympathy for very few of these people. I went to a crappy school, lived in dumpy apartments, scraped by with a bunch of part time jobs, never had a car, never borrowed for non school expenses(hello refund check!) and never went to spring break.

    How many of the debtors can say the same? Borrowing money for a degree in sculpture? How stupid are these people?

  57. nwnj says:

    And there isn’t a doubt in my mind who they voted for.

  58. cobbler says:

    Govt should get out of a student loan business altogether. Instead, it should give free tuition to top 5 or 10% HS grads in any major, and to top 15 or 20% in those majors where there is consensus about demand for the graduates. The private student loans should become dischargeable in BK the same as CC debt, etc. – which will make the banks assess every applicant’s likelihood of paying back. Then, the system will stabilize itself – we stop wasting years of pretending to teach people who have no business going to school, and save lots of money in process.

  59. joyce says:

    58,
    nwnj,

    Not only did he borrow money for a degree is sculpture, he borrowed money for a masters degree in sculpture! I do not have much sympathy for the individuals either. But like you said, the lenders will be bailed out… and that’s what pisses me off.

  60. joyce says:

    “Govt should get out of a student loan business altogether”
    and
    “The private student loans should become dischargeable in BK”

    That’s all that’s necessary

    60.cobbler says:
    February 5, 2013 at 12:48 pm
    Govt should get out of a student loan business altogether. Instead, it should give free tuition to top 5 or 10% HS grads in any major, and to top 15 or 20% in those majors where there is consensus about demand for the graduates. The private student loans should become dischargeable in BK the same as CC debt, etc. – which will make the banks assess every applicant’s likelihood of paying back. Then, the system will stabilize itself – we stop wasting years of pretending to teach people who have no business going to school, and save lots of money in process.

  61. grim says:

    BTW, sheeple, your “reform” gubnor Christie sold you down the river on property taxes.

    2012 NJ property taxes up 1.4% on average.

    2012 CPI-U less Food and Energy up 1.9%

    For the first time in a very long time, NJ property taxes actually declined in real terms.

    We said it numerous times on this blog, the reason 2.0% was picked as the target was that annual increases would actually fall under the actual inflation rate, reducing property taxes in real terms, not nominal.

  62. Brian says:

    Baa baa

  63. joyce says:

    Does the CPI include the price of wages?

  64. joyce says:

    Did Brian just walk past a mirror?

  65. Brian says:

    I’m more concerned that the CPI number may not include .223 bullets.

    I hope the government didn’t just hear me think that….where’s my tinfoil hat?

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    My B.S. Meter started pinging wildly. Is there anything happening in DC right now?

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [60] cobbler

    Okay, who are you and what have you done with Cobbler?

  68. BearsFan says:

    as joyce said, that’s only valid with an accompanying wage increase. and can we please stop citing the B*llshit CPI number as a credible inflation measure?

  69. joyce says:

    I guess inflation and chris christie’s public record are conspiracy theories.

    67.Brian says:
    February 5, 2013 at 1:13 pm
    I’m more concerned that the CPI number may not include .223 bullets.

    I hope the government didn’t just hear me think that….where’s my tinfoil hat?

  70. cobbler says:

    joyce [62]
    With all-private loan system, but Without recognizing and rewarding talentedwstudents in every field at the society level (free tuition), we’ll have the current crowding of rocket scientists into the financial services, but on steroids – or, as an alternative, they will go to school abroad and stay there.

  71. grim says:

    Sorry, I’ll stop quoting the census bureau and the bureau of labor statistics, and instead focus on only providing statistics from reputable sources such as zero hedge and websites with at least 50% of their advertising revenue coming from gold/metals companies.

  72. cobbler says:

    nom[69]
    My view of the world is different from what you think it is.

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    The quarterly publication of individuals who have chosen to expatriate is late. It was supposed to be released by the end of January.

    Ever since Obama was elected, there has been more attention on this publication, and when the numbers started climbing, the releases came out later and later. Lately, the releases have been on time and, coincidentally, the expat numbers are well down. But this release is already late by a few days, so I am expecting that (a) it will post on Friday afternoon, and (b) it will show a marked increase over the prior report.

  74. Painhrtz - So Long and Thanks for all the Fish says:

    Nom 69 i read his screed and thought the same thing. borken clock yada yada yada

  75. Pete says:

    #74,

    Thanks Grim, its time you get with the program. It will also be okay if you make broad sweeping generalizations based solely on anectdata as well.

  76. BearsFan says:

    74- u should, the data is prob more accurate. When they’re weighing medical costs at 7% of average outlays, and u calculate that out to 2500-3500 a year for the average family, it’s hard to say “yeah, that makes sense, that’s what i’m paying too”

  77. JJ says:

    Get out of student loan, flood insurance and subsiding mortgages, they should keep GMAC though as the 2014 Vette is a bitchin ride and middle aged dentists will need car loans to get them

  78. Phoenix says:

    [60] cobbler “Govt should get out of a student loan business altogether”

    The colleges already know the pressure is on to decrease funding to students and that this gravy train is coming to a close. Charter schools will fund the next bubble, and this time it will come directly from the local tax base. Christie’s tax break gift to Pearson education and his history. with University of Phoenix should give you an idea of the direction we are headed in. PBS did a good video on the college situation, how buying an accredited college can be a gold mine in the right hands.
    http://video.pbs.org/video/1485280975/

  79. JJ says:

    Alice Lloyd College
    Cooper Union
    U.S. Military Academies

    Are all free US colleges. Skip the loans baby

  80. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [82];

    CU is tougher to get into than any Ivy. Need connections for an appointment to the military academies, not to mention they are hardly ‘free’, a couple of strings attached.

  81. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [83];

    Pain had it right, kids should ‘find themselves’ for a couple grand a semester at the local CC, then transfer to a 4-year school.

  82. JJ says:

    Alice Lloyd College has a 43% acceptance rate and is free.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I think Bernanke is doing his damnedest to engineer steady 10% inflation, so all the loans get paid back…in nominal dollars. Way back in my Rutgers days I used to go to Spring break with just my Federal and State refund checks. If I filed as soon as I could in January I used to always get my checks by first week of March and Rutgers had break either the 2nd or 3rd week. I was always sweating those checks as I needed them to get to Lauderdale. No planes, 4 guys in Corolla one year, My girlfriend and I in a Nova (yes, I know, I brought a sandwich to a smorgasbord) another year, but the best time was 8 of us in a Winnebago. It actually got 10 mpg highway and was the cheapest by far and the best fun factor as we drove our rolling motel to every nightclub. Last guy out of the bar had to drive back to the campground.

    The student loan crisis is a national problem. A lot of that debt won’t be paid back, so I’m sure there will be another bailout for the creditors.

    But individually I have sympathy for very few of these people. I went to a crappy school, lived in dumpy apartments, scraped by with a bunch of part time jobs, never had a car, never borrowed for non school expenses(hello refund check!) and never went to spring break.

    How many of the debtors can say the same? Borrowing money for a degree in sculpture? How stupid are these people?

  84. JJ says:

    I used to love spring break when all the guys went south and left their mad girlfriends home alone for a week.

    he Original NJ ExPat says:
    February 5, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    I think Bernanke is doing his damnedest to engineer steady 10% inflation, so all the loans get paid back…in nominal dollars. Way back in my Rutgers days I used to go to Spring break with just my Federal and State refund checks. If I filed as soon as I could in January I used to always get my checks by first week of March and Rutgers had break either the 2nd or 3rd week. I was always sweating those checks as I needed them to get to Lauderdale. No planes, 4 guys in Corolla one year, My girlfriend and I in a Nova (yes, I know, I brought a sandwich to a smorgasbord) another year, but the best time was 8 of us in a Winnebago. It actually got 10 mpg highway and was the cheapest by far and the best fun factor as we drove our rolling motel to every nightclub. Last guy out of the bar had to drive back to the campground.

  85. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Agreed. The poor man’s spring break.

    I used to love spring break when all the guys went south and left their mad girlfriends home alone for a week.

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Down in Fort Lauderdale you always had to find out what school a girl went to before you told her. The girls were really there for the same reason as the guys, maybe more so, because of the temporary nature of the environment. You had to find out what school the girl went to first just in case she went to your school. Then you had the opportunity to lie about where you went, otherwise she’d drop you like a hot potato lest the, ahem, *details* of her activities make it back to campus.

  87. nwnj says:

    #86

    The refund check I was talking about was when you take out loans bigger than your school expenses, the school’s financial aid department would cut you a check. Everyone treated it like free money and it was good for certain elicit salespeople but it’s a b!tch to payback now.

    This guy took it to the extreme and borrowed 105k for a semester at CC. http://www.abc27.com/story/19657211/central-pa-man-charged-with-student-loan-fraud

  88. joyce says:

    (90)
    nwnj,

    “If convicted, he faces a term of imprisonment of up to 20 years and a fine of $250,000.”

    Well what do you know… it IS possible to idict an individual for financial fraud. Why does his Uncle Sam get him out of trouble?

  89. joyce says:

    does = doesn’t

  90. Ernest Money says:

    grim (63)-

    Nothing short of reductions is acceptable. It’s the raising of property taxes in little increments that has gotten us to the failure point.

    Of course, no one in any municipality can wrap his tiny brain around the concept of taxing LESS and spending LESS. You might as well tell these pea-brained robbers the world is flat.

    “2012 NJ property taxes up 1.4% on average.”

  91. Ernest Money says:

    Not sending my kid to a skool named Alice.

  92. Ernest Money says:

    Alice Cooper

    Alice in Chains

    Alice Lloyd?

  93. JJ says:

    I never took out a student loan. Usually xmas, spring break etc. I worked full time at mastercard. Lots of full time employees took off and us part timers got some easy cash.

    Master card was my best cushy job ever. At one point I was dating the supervisors younger sister. I thought she was old at time but she was like 24 and I was like 20. The supervisor did not own a car, my shift was four pm till nine pm. I used to show up at her house everyday around 3pm to watch GH with sister in her bedroom. Around 34opm get a knock on door get moving we have to get to work, drive her there. There was a meal break from 8-9 I did not get as I was part time. But she would let me go pick up food in my dodge dart for everyone and give me an extra 15 minutes. Finish up 30 minutes of work. Spring Break and Summer I worked full time so I would also drive her home when she did not have a ride. Summers was the best ever. I would go out with the guys to the bars 2-3 nights a week and 1-2 nights a week drive her home, go to sisters room for like 30 minutes and head home. Sometimes that sister had me on a 3:15pm and a 11:45 pm cycle. Once I get home at 12:15 am and my brother was waiting for me as we had to meet a bunch of stewardess at one am which we did. After a few beers one of the stewardess’s literally raised the dead and I performed like a Clydesdale for the third time that day. Afterwards I swore off the doubles as it limited my options for later on. Although the stewardess told me it is a big turn on to taste my girlfriend and me at same time. I went basically, yikes no man would ever have that comment when going down on a girl.

    nwnj says:
    February 5, 2013 at 3:03 pm

    #86

    The refund check I was talking about was when you take out loans bigger than your school expenses, the school’s financial aid department would cut you a check. Everyone treated it like free money and it was good for certain elicit salespeople but it’s a b!tch to payback now.

  94. Ernest Money says:

    Which news outlet is more credible?

    Zero Hedge

    CNBC

  95. JJ says:

    Lakers’ World Peace Banned From Nets’ Game for Punching Opponent

  96. Painhrtz - So Long and Thanks for all the Fish says:

    JJ you are truly and artist though I think you missed the chance at some threeway action:

    Although the stewardess told me it is a big turn on to taste my girlfriend and me at same time. I went basically, yikes no man would ever have that comment when going down on a girl.

  97. Essex says:

    Spring Break this year at the Boca Tennis & Resort Club. Man how times have changed.

  98. Ernest Money says:

    Don’t forget your walker. Early bird starts at 5 PM sharp.

  99. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    90 – nwnj – If convicted, he faces a term of imprisonment of up to 20 years and a fine of $250,000. That’s a hefty interest rate.

    This guy took it to the extreme and borrowed 105k for a semester at CC. http://www.abc27.com/story/19657211/central-pa-man-charged-with-student-loan-fraud

    Like JJ, I never took any student loans. In the mid 80′s an engineer’s first year gross salary was double his complete 4 year college expenses (including books, room, and board) if he went to a state school like Rutgers. College was a no-brainer back then, but you failed out if you weren’t smart enough or didn’t work hard enough. Now it’s for kids who have no brains and everyone graduates.

  100. cobbler says:

    expat[102]
    College was a no-brainer back then, but you failed out if you weren’t smart enough or didn’t work hard enough. Now it’s for kids who have no brains and everyone graduates.
    Share of college grads among the 25-30 yo stays about the same since the late 70s which upsets some idiots like Tom Friedman; if anything, the graduation rate dropped since then as more people from the bottom of the HS roster come to the college campuses.

  101. Ernest Money says:

    It’s all going to black. Just a question of when the ultra-violence starts.

  102. grim says:

    105 – A townhouse in Short Hills starting at $900k, or a house in Randolph starting at $700k. Decisions, decisions…

  103. Essex says:

    101. I know. I know. But I do get to see my folks. It is the least that I can do. Seriously. They are my parents.

  104. Painhrtz - So Long and Thanks for all the Fish says:

    Grim you would be right down the block from me and can hear the cops shooting at 9 oclock at night. Randolph has an outdoor range for the local stasi. i say Randolph with chinese drywall on a zero lot.

  105. JJ says:

    AHHH, I had one even better!!!!! The blonde girl I was dating, 20 years old, blonde, five foot nine inch and 120 pounds had a bad case of Agoraphobia, perfect for me.

    She would go to a movie with me, or dinner alone or a family party thing where she knew people. But never with strangers or by her self it was perfect.

    She did not drive, have a job or go to college. Her only job was to baby sit her sisters two kids and once in awhile her neighbors kids. She also lived at home pre-cell phones and parents who both worked full time. Oddly she was very cool. I rarely like taking her out, once I took her to movie shortly after I was dating her. Apparantly people with Agoraphobia if they are picked up by someone they know and taken to movie where you sit alone and no one bothers you they like it. Anyhow, for some other strange reason she liked to dress really hot. Why, I dont know. So we go to movies, she has high heels, black leather pants, low cut silk blouse, black leather jacket, long blonde hair blown out and I felt like I was carrying a subway hero in Eithopia, every man was drooling in place. Then movie comes on and it is a movie with a lot of super hot girls and I realize the girl I am with is hotter than any body I have ever seen, I mean in movies, magazines etc. I held onto her for like a year, but the great Larry Flint said it all when he said show me a beautiful girl and I will show you a guy sick of screwing her.

    Although I greatly miss a few things about her. For instance after finals that went particularly bad, I call her from the pay phone at school and tell her how bad they went and tell her I am running late did not even have time to eat lunch, I will be at the house at 340pm and have to leave at 345 pm to drive your sister to work.

    At 3:40 she comes to door in just a bathrobe nothing underneath a sandwich on a plate and a cold tall boy and leads me to her room. At 345 I was all done, a happy man.

    Painhrtz – So Long and Thanks for all the Fish says:
    February 5, 2013 at 4:07 pm

    JJ you are truly and artist though I think you missed the chance at some threeway action:

    Although the stewardess told me it is a big turn on to taste my girlfriend and me at same time. I went basically, yikes no man would ever have that comment when going down on a girl.

  106. Ragnar says:

    That Short Hills spot would be great for a small family where the kids are going to high school, and someone is commuting by train to NYC . Walk to high school. Looks like with upgrades, the price is more realistically 1.1mn.
    But calling it a “carriage home” is ridiculous. Where do they keep the horses and carriages? In Ye Olde Garage?

  107. Anon E. Moose says:

    nwnj [90];

    Silly charge. All money is fungible. If a kid was saving for college, but you give him a full-ride scholarship, which frees up his money to go buy a Corvette, did you fund his education or buy him a sports car?

    Not to mention that the student loan debt is non-dischargeable in BK. He would have been better off HELOCing his house for the mad money.

    I wonder what the statute of limitation is on that charge.

  108. JJ says:

    As a proud holder of a graduate degree I look down upon folks with only college degrees.

    What amazes me about college is you only need a 2.0 GPA to grad. This is particular in community college. With grade inflation today it is easy to pass. Back in the day profs handed out Ds and Fs which wackd your GPA below 2.00 in a heartbeat, today take to hard classes blow them off get two C’s take three easy classes and balance it out with As.

    My last semester of grad school went out with a wimper, only taking two courses. One course prof if you were trying lowest he would give you was a C, other guy was a F sort of guy if he felt like it or an A kinda of guy. So I get a straight up F on my midterm, meet with prof and ask what I can do. He goes nothing even if you got an A on final I still give you a C. Dont come here again and get an A in the other course so you average to a 3.0 this semester stay off warning and graduate. I got an A in the other course. It was never like that undergrad or even first two years of grad, but now a C is the new F and a is the new C

    cobbler says:
    February 5, 2013 at 4:43 pm

    expat[102]
    College was a no-brainer back then, but you failed out if you weren’t smart enough or didn’t work hard enough. Now it’s for kids who have no brains and everyone graduates.
    Share of college grads among the 25-30 yo stays about the same since the late 70s which upsets some idiots like Tom Friedman; if anything, the graduation rate dropped since then as more people from the bottom of the HS roster come to the college campuses

  109. joyce says:

    109

    Agoraphobia he spells right.

  110. Anon E. Moose says:

    Ragnar [110];

    “Carriage House” is just Toll’s PR word for townhouse. Probably worth about 10% more on the bottom line.

    When I was living in the MD suburbs of DC, we looked at new developments that had some inane moniker that had no meaning in the world of houses (something-estates). It turns out that what they were doing was building townhouses and getting 2 units out of every 3 plots. Every floor plan was about 1200 sf, in two 600 sf sections, and was available up-and-down or side-by-side (ranch?). The up-and-down layouts were the top two floors of every plot, the side-by-side layouts spanned the bottom floor of every two plots. The prices they were asking shocked me even then, but mostly because they were right next to a busy commuter and freight rail line.

  111. Anon E. Moose says:

    redo[115];

    3 units out of every 2 plots…

  112. Ernest Money says:

    Soon, there will be French-style car burning riots in Short Hills.

  113. JJ says:

    Of course, as Hannah Montana once said it was the best of both worlds. I could actually go to singles bars and nightclubs up the block from her with no worries as I knew she would never be there, without a car she could not go out with out me.

    Today with twitter, facebook, cell phones she would have 500 guys like me over there, but back them I and her sister were her only two links to outside world.

    And no I never slept with sister. She had a huge black boyfriend. Although I did go all street cred and hung out in some hustle and flow joints with him once and got properly introduced as the guy banging his old ladies sista.

    I did however, thought about doing Mom, even though she was not hot. I also could not touch sister as I could lose my job as well as my GF and as payment for driving her to work they made me lunch four days a week. Food, Sex and Job in one shot gone

    joyce says:
    February 5, 2013 at 5:22 pm

    109

    Agoraphobia he spells right.

  114. NJFlee says:

    Hey Ernie,

    Who are they sub-contracting to do the riots for them? Riots-R-Us and does the riot come with a nice Brut & Caviar?

  115. Ernest Money says:

    No champagne will be served at the decline of Western Civilization.

  116. freedy says:

    They made the Koreans in Pal Park look like fools. 200 million not bad.

    how many left for the home country? most likely

  117. Anon E. Moose says:

    NJFlee [120];

    Who are they sub-contracting to do the riots for them?

    The ‘youths’ they’ve been importing for years, who will find themselves still unemployed when the social welfare gravy train run dry.

    …riots by mostly French youths of North African origins…

    (linky)