Case Shiller Day!

Due out at 9!

From the WSJ:

Shiller’s Bottom Line: Risk Lingers in Housing.

WSJ: Did we finally hit a floor in home prices last year?

Mr. Shiller: The trend in home prices seems to be up now. It has been going up. That’s upward momentum, which by my general rule of forecasting has been good for the future. I’ve been tentative about that. It may well be the turning point.

But I’m not sure about that. I’m more worried than most people that it could be a short-lived turnaround. It could be like the 2009-10 upturn where we saw home prices rising right after President Obama took office and right after the home-buyer tax credit was instituted. In that upturn there were some cities that did quite spectacularly. And then that fizzled. I’m not too sure that this one will extrapolate either.

WSJ: Why are you more worried than most people?

Mr. Shiller: Part of the reason the indexes have gone up is because the foreclosure boom has receded. Foreclosed homes sell at a lower price, and the share of those sales has been falling. People might be deceived by this by looking at the indexes. The question is whether the gains will be sustained.

There isn’t any sign of the real enthusiasm we saw during the last bubble. The question is whether this could be the very vague beginning of a new boom? I guess it could. I just don’t know. Then there are issues with what the government does to support housing. They’re doing everything they can. They say they’re going to stop some day. When will people start worrying about that?

WSJ: There are some people who look at the double-digit annual price increases in Phoenix and elsewhere and wonder whether we’re seeing new “mini-bubbles.” Is that a concern you share?

Mr. Shiller: Home prices are back down to a reasonable level. Why should they go up a lot? It means you have to have a succession of eager buyers that would bid them up. Historically major bubbles tend to occur at widely separate intervals. Once it bursts, usually, historically, people are fed up for a long time.

WSJ: Could it be possible that prices are rising by double digits in these places simply because they fell below their long-term relationship with incomes and rents, and are now bouncing back off of that?

Mr. Shiller: Phoenix overshot. Prices got too low. In real terms it was down well over 50%, maybe close to 60%. Now it’s bumped up. It doesn’t look out of line either way now.

WSJ: What do you make of the investor activity in the market right now? A lot of these buyers are all cash buyers—no leverage—buying on rental return. Are you worried about any return of speculative purchases?

Mr. Shiller: In a housing debacle, I’m sure some houses are underpriced, and there is probably a profit opportunity for some people who are going to choose carefully. I’m not surprised that this is going on. There seems to be a shift in public tastes for the time being at least for rental. So this business doesn’t surprise me. It seems to be an appropriate response.

WSJ: For somebody with a stable job, who plans to live somewhere for more than a few years, is this a good time to buy a house?

Mr. Shiller: I think it’s OK, especially because mortgage rates are so low. This isn’t a time to get a flexible-rate mortgage! Get a 30-year, fixed rate mortgage. Rates are so low. They have gone up a little, but they’re still very low. That’s a real opportunity. Prices are not particularly low, but they’re not particularly high.

WSJ: What’s your outlook for home prices?

Mr. Shiller: It’s especially hard to say. We could be looking at a 1-2% increase a year for the next five years. That’s a reasonable scenario—1-2% a year, and it might go up more than that. I don’t know. My main message is that it’s a market with risk in it. We don’t know the future. That’s the most important message to convey.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

126 Responses to Case Shiller Day!

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. Mike says:

    Sticky Mouse

  4. All over, but for the crying.

  5. grim says:

    What, no gnashing of teeth?

  6. grim says:

    By the way, is it even possible for Shiller to have waffled that forecast any more?

  7. yome says:

    Is this not what the feds intention for holding assests on its books? They bought this assets with printed useless paper so they can destroy the assets. This is not a good thing? Half a trillion destroyed in 3 years

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/fed-faces-explaining-billion-dollar-losses-in-stress-of-qe3-exit.html

  8. Neanderthal Economist says:

    no. what a mess this guy has turned into.

    “By the way, is it even possible for Shiller to have waffled that forecast any more?”

  9. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    They Bailed on Their Homes—Now They Want Back In

    Home sales are slowly climbing back, thanks to investor demand, improving consumer confidence in housing, and the surprising return of former homeowners who once walked away from their commitments.

    These so-called, “strategic defaulters,” some of them investors and some owner-occupants, are coming back to the market, despite damaged credit, and apparently the market is welcoming them back.

    A new survey of past clients by YouWalkAway.com, a website that assists borrowers in the legal pitfalls of strategic default, found that nearly 80 percent expressed a desire to buy a home again within the next twelve months. It also cites data by Moody’s analytics, showing that the number of eligible home buyers who have had a previous foreclosure will be 1.5 million by the first quarter of 2014.

    Crashing home prices and sketchy mortgage products caused millions of Americans to default on their loans and eventually lose their homes. For some, it was a tragic fight to the end to keep their single largest investment; for others it was a conscious decision to walk away from their mortgage commitments, given the real fact that they would likely not see home equity again for many years to come.

    Some saw this as morally reprehensible, others as a sensible business decision.

    Coming back to home ownership may not be as difficult as some think. Consumers who only defaulted on their mortgage during the recent recession were far better risks than those who went delinquent on multiple credit accounts, like credit cards and auto loans, according to a 2011 study by TransUnion.

    “There appears to be a pocket of opportunity among mortgage-only defaulters that is not the result of excess liquidity, but rather the unique circumstances of the recent recession,” said Steve Chaouki, group vice president in TransUnion’s financial services business unit in the study release. “This new market segment that the recession created is an important one for lenders to understand. They have the potential, today, to be stronger and more reliable customers.”

  10. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    LPS: December home prices rose 5.8% annually

    Home prices in the U.S. edged up 5.8% year-over-year in December as the average home price rose to $207,000, Lender Processing Services said in its latest Home Price Index.

    Month-over-month, home prices jumped a slight 0.1% from November, but still remained well below peak pricing levels reached in June of 2006.

    LPS surveys 16,000 ZIP codes to provide analysis of month-to-month home price fluctuations, which compares to S&P Case Shiller’s 20-city and national home price index, which breaks data down on a 3-month rolling basis.

    LPS also takes into account the impact of distressed sales in the marketplace.

    Of the nation’s five largest states, all of them except for New Jersey saw home prices edge up in December, LPS said.

    While New Jersey prices fell 0.2% from November, California, Florida, New York and Texas saw month-over-month price appreciation.

  11. yome says:

    Veets how is your Mercer County home? Heard high bidding has started

  12. Nomad says:

    So these people that walked away from their homes and now want to buy – are lenders requiring a larger down payment (20% min) from them and will they get mortgages this time that they can walk away from if things don’t work out for them? If not, who in their right mind would give them a mortgage.

  13. No big deal when a couple of homeowners walk away, but wait until Spain & Italy hit the reset button.

    There will be gnashing of teeth.

  14. nomad (12)-

    The same banksters who lent before will loan again to the deadbeats, sell the loans off the line, collect the vig and blow it all up again.

    The boomerang FKs have already begun.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop

    The legitimate credit extension mechanism died in 2008. This is just more of transfusing the zombie and spraying Febreze on the rotting corpse.

  15. grim says:

    14 – That’s nothing new, don’t we all remember the ‘new’ word that was (re)introduced in the early phases of the housing bailouts and mortgage workouts, recidivism?

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2010/01/18/mortgage-modification-program-a-failure/

    C’mon Chip, even you called this one, almost 6 years ago (less a month) to the day?

    4.Clotpoll says:
    March 29, 2007 at 8:02 am
    It’ll be interesting to see how many bailed-out homeowners will still manage to go under.

    There will always be a sizable number of “homeowners” that redefault. Hell, even people that were given their homes free and clear were defaulting on their (back) tax payments. Given the biggest bailout of all (100%), and they still failed to keep the home.

  16. JJ says:

    We could be looking at a 1-2% increase a year for the next five years

    wow, with all the carrying costs and taxes associated with a house 1-2% is something to brag about.

  17. yome says:

    Berlusconni refusing to concede

    Looks like I will not get the 10% correction I am waiting for

  18. grim says:

    We all know there are plenty of folks in default that simply do not warrant a bailout, it’s wasted effort, a swift foreclosure would be the best course of action for all.

    The problem is, few in the industry would ever publically admit this is the best course of action, even though they know it, are enforcing it, and are even institituting workouts that are in favor of other parties (or themselves).

    No better example than the recent NYT article that calls the banks’ extinguishing of second liens some kind of ‘false bailout’. Let me get this straight, debtor has a lien extinguished, doesn’t need to pay that loan any further, and somehow the bank is the bad guy? Yes, this gets the bad debt off the balance sheets (or out of the pools), but it also takes a monthly payment off the table, which theoretically should do two things, increase the ability for the borrower to pay the first, and secondly, opens up the possibility to a refinance as we all know that two liens split across lenders is an almost impossible situation to work out.

    What does the NYT expect? Bigger bailouts? Not only should the debtors be gifted the second lien, but some percentage of the first as well? Jesus, if they can’t afford even the first loan, there isn’t much hope.

    And what then when the bank decides simply not to foreclose, and releases the full lien (or liens). Well then, you’ve got a “zombie foreclosure”, scaaary. Only in America can someone be given a house, free and clear, and it be a “bad thing”.

  19. JJ says:

    http://www.homeaway.com/vacation-rental/p106755

    OCEANVIEW, 60 Steps to Beach, Untouched by Sandy, only 6 weeks left!

    I love ads like this. It is 100% illegal to advertise a unit by saying 60 steps from anywhere. Someone should call up demand summer free and let owner and broker off the hook for a major lawsuit.

  20. JJ says:

    Same NJ Beach Ad, notice he used term walk or steps several times. Totally illegal. Most likely also illegal anyhow to use home as an SRO Flop house selling space by day or week.

    Beautiful ‘Shore House’. Fully equipped & clean-like new home. ONLY 60 STEPS TO BEACH/BOARDWALK!!! FREE High Speed Wireless I-Net. Spectacular home was featured on the cover of Ocean City Magazine as one of best designed homes in Ocean City New Jersey! It has a look & feel of the ‘old-time’ beach house, yet having the inside designed to for10-17 comfortably. No crowded.feeling here : ) A comfortable & quiet location yet only a 5 minute walk to 6th St Amusement Pier & other fantastic Ocean City activities. 3 minute walk to 4 wonderful restaurants. Rents year-round, Gated side yard makes a great play area for toddlers. 3rd floor is a very private Honeymoon Suite w/private bath. Our top-notch cleaning team always makes sure your vacation home stays looking new & clean. Large, comfortable bedrooms,Great Room & porches. Unlike most homes in Ocean City, as it sits on a lot + 1/2 times the normal size of other Ocean City homes. Also includes 2 Hot/Cold outdoor showers! Parking for 2-5 cars.

  21. Brian says:

    JJ WTF are you talking about? I’ve rented through home away and I always see descriptions like ocean front, or two blocks from ocean etc. Why would that be illegal?

  22. Neanderthal Economist says:

    yome all is well buddy. basement and other projects are done, weve been bathing in homeowner heaven, loving the whole experience. the market seems to be a mixed bag from town to town down here but overall garys sentiment is correct, inventory seems absolutely attrotious. for that reason alone im guessing prices are up 5-10% from last year in our neighborhood even though fundamentals are still stagnating. hard to say though, since there are less comps nowadays. Are you still renting in BK?

  23. Ottoman says:

    “60 steps” implies the disabled need not apply. Violation of fair housing law.

  24. yome says:

    Veets, good to hear from you.BIl Is going back and forth about putting his princton jct home in market. Some bidding wars in his area makes him wait then wants to sell. Last time I rented was before 94. Warmest regards to the family

  25. Brian says:

    The only way I read it was that it is really close to the ocean. What you are saying Ottoman, is a bit of a strech. Here’s another quote from the description JJ posted, which shows they are only using “steps” to imply it’s proximity to the ocean.

    “Exact Location is 861 2nd Street (2nd and 3rd Floor) – Approximately 60 yards/steps/paces from the Beach and Boardwalk”

    23.Ottoman says:
    February 26, 2013 at 8:55 am
    “60 steps” implies the disabled need not apply. Violation of fair housing law.

  26. JJ says:

    Bingo, stuff such as steps to ocean are “code” for non handicap accessible/wheelchairs are not welcome.

    Just like in Five Towns you get a double “code: from landlord, “walking distance to temple” – Jews only no handicapped.

    Ottoman says:
    February 26, 2013 at 8:55 am

    “60 steps” implies the disabled need not apply. Violation of fair housing law.

  27. chicagofinance says:

    In your own way, you really are just a cheap ripoff of Booya Bob.

    Scrapple Cannon says:
    February 25, 2013 at 10:52 pm
    If you hold elected office, a bullet for you.

    If you run for elected office, a bullet for you.

    Red? Blue? All the same; all corrupt.

    Burn the mf’er down, and start over.

  28. JJ says:

    Brian you can state 2/10s of a mile from the ocean, you can say oceanfront. You can never every say “walking distance” 60 steps to Ocean. Someone with no legs, or in a wheelchair describing a unit as 60 steps to Ocean is disturbing and illegal.

    Just like you cant say “great apartment for singles” “no kids” etc.

    That guy is operating a hotel, he is required to be ADA.

  29. Fast Eddie says:

    Scheduled foreclosure auctions increased from the previous month in 26 states and the District of Columbia, hitting 12-month or more highs in several key judicial foreclosure states, including Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

    Except Northern NJ; we’re insulated.

  30. Ottoman says:

    It’s not a stretch, its actually the law. JJ is correct. You cannot infer that a specific type of person in one of the protected classes may or may not be suitable for a property. “2 blocks from the ocean” is fine because it characterizes the property, “steps to the beach” is not because it characterizes the people who might live there.

    Real estate has a history of code words being used to keep “undesireable” people out of neighborhoods, hence the sensitivity to such language even if the intention to discriminate isn’t there.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    Keep a close eye on those states where all artificial attempts to crush foreclosure starts and completions have been used up, and where reality is about to come back with a bang.

    Because for all the propaganda, and all the artificial attempts to juice the market, the sad reality is that the US consumer has less and less disposable cash flow, and when one adds such $1 trillion + debt items as student debt (now greater than all credit card debt combined), has a soaring debt load to add.

    The only question is how long until the funding to prop up this latest artificial housing market subsidy runs out, and banks realize that the time to dump all those millions of underwater homes on their books into the market is now.

    Because, like with everything else, those who sell first, sell best.

    Tick… tick… tick… tick…

  32. JJ says:

    So last night I get a copy of police report from 52 year old guy who drove into my new Cadillac at 60 mph while it was parking in front of my house at 2am in the morning.

    It was a god damm Kennedy. First Ted and Bobby throw up in my Dads Cadillac now I have a Kennedy totaling my Cadillac.

    Damm Kennedy’s can they leave my families Cadillacs alone.

  33. chicagofinance says:

    He’s not a crisp sound bite guy. He is an academic, and his approach is thoughtful, not decisive. I see plenty of idiots around NJ who are very decisive, very confident, and very wrong.

    grim says:
    February 26, 2013 at 7:33 am
    By the way, is it even possible for Shiller to have waffled that forecast any more?

  34. Richard says:

    So Case Shiller wasn’t that great. NY metro region -0.5% YoY. Presumably its Sandy affected.

    Got a phone call yesterday from a Realtor trying to sell me something. Buy something quick because prices are going up every week!

  35. Brian says:

    Ottoman, they also seem to descriminate against women named “Sandy”. You guys should sue.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Where’s Freedy!

    Spring market is on fire!!

  37. Ottoman says:

    “My main message is that it’s a market with risk in it. We don’t know the future. That’s the most important message to convey.”

    Seems like a better bet to study human nature rather than listen to real estate experts.

  38. JJ says:

    Spongebob would never do that!!

    Brian says:
    February 26, 2013 at 9:32 am

    Ottoman, they also seem to descriminate against women named “Sandy”. You guys should sue.

  39. yome says:

    The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 6.8 percent from December 2011, the biggest year-to-year gain since July 2006, after advancing 5.4 percent in November, a report showed today in New York. The median projection of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 6.6 percent advance. Nineteen of 20 cities showed gains.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-increase-by-most-since-2006.html

    Different reports?

  40. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [32];

    Let me guess, no mention of a field sobriety test or breathalizer test? Was the driver taken to a hospital? Tox screen run?

    In the end, the cops probably did you a favor in that regard. Let your insurance write you a check and move on.

  41. Ottoman says:

    LOL Brian, not my rules nor do I really care. I did a quick search and saw that the MLSs around the DC area ban the use of ‘walking distance’. Saw that NYC might too (not sure) and a source in Ohio says its a questionable term that shouldn’t be used. Found a site that says its okay in NJ but preferable to use ‘proximity to’. So at least they’ve indicated caution. Its just one of those iffy terms that could get you in trouble.

    BTW, that NJ source said that ‘desirable neighborhood’ is questionable. I see that all the time.

  42. joyce says:

    (42)
    Ottoman,
    That’s interesting stuff. Can you point me to the search results you found?
    It doesn’t surprise me in the least that such stupid legislation (or regulations) were passed.

  43. Ottoman says:

    Here’s the NJ one, its the NJ Press Association
    http://www.njpa.org/njpa/legal_hotline/FairHousingLaws-Aug08.pdf

    EHO watch list which has ‘walk to’ on it (from a PA real estate site)
    http://www.proassoc.org/adguide.html

    Ohio http://www.mvfairhousing.com/ad_word_list.php

  44. Ottoman says:

    Think my reply didn’t post. Trying again with just the NJ source

    from NJ Press Association
    http://www.njpa.org/njpa/legal_hotline/FairHousingLaws-Aug08.pdf

  45. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    New home starts blows out estimate

  46. yome says:

    CS Monthly Change
    Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations in the 20-city index climbed 0.9 percent in December from the prior month, compared with a 0.7 gain in November. The December advance exceeded the Bloomberg survey median that called for a 0.7 percent gain.

  47. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    [44] ottoman,

    That guidance suggests that using “steps from” is permitted. However, the general idea about innocuous language violating fair housing laws is correct. I had to work with ECOA and there were similar guidelines, including a quota system for advertising.

  48. yome says:

    This guy has to much bias in his commentary. Results beat estimates.What is this guy looking for?

    Zero hedge
    “As expected earlier, today’s December Case Shiller data came and went and nobody cared. “

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    The increase was broad-based, with 19 of the 20 markets showing gains in December. New York posted the only decline, with prices edging down 0.5% from a year earlier.

    Thank goodness we’re insulated and bleeding wealth here in North Jersey! :o

  50. yome says:

    Berlusconi concedes

  51. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    Di Napoli reports that WS bonuses were up 8% in 2012, but this due in part to front loading comp into 2012.

  52. yome says:

    50 eddie
    Our area lost about less than 30% from peak.Does this put us inline with the states that lost 60%?

  53. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    [51] yome,

    I wonder if someone pointed out to him that one of his predecessors was hanged by his ankles in the village square?

  54. yome says:

    54 Nom
    That reminds me of the cannibal cop on trial I saw on the news this am

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    yome [53],

    I don’t know, you tell me.

  56. Comrade Nom DePlume says:
  57. Fast Eddie says:

    From 2000 to 2008, property taxes went up ~75% in our area and houses went up ~87%. Since the peak, we’re down ~27% on houses while salaries have remained flat and property taxes have increased ~2% per year over the last few years and will sustain that increase into infinity. Tack on energy, food and cost of living and tell me where prices are headed in our area? Throw in the big monkey wrench called medical costs and then tell me where we are in 10 years from now.

  58. yome says:

    56 Eddie
    State like Phoenix still have room to gain in prices while we stay stagnant

    “Despite the increases, prices nationwide are still about 30 percent below the peak they reached at the height of the housing bubble in the summer of 2006. They are now at the same level as in the fall of 2003”

    http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/20130129us-home-prices-accelerate-november.html

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    Nom [57],

    Thank goodness we’re insulated here and prestigious.

  60. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [81, prev thread];

    If even Ryan’s plan to limit grown over the long term is too milquetoast, it only emphasizes my point: radical leftists claiming the middle ground and accusing the right of extremism are throwing stones from the clearest of glass houses.

  61. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    A very quick and unscientific review of the WH release that describes the effects of the sequester on states seems to show that sparsely populated red states get hit as hard or harder than more populous blue states.

    I’m sure that there are valid, apolitical reasons for this effect.

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    yo;

    From Joe Scarborough, “Republicans have agreed to raising taxes. Republicans have agreed to cut defense. When will the President agree to entitlement cuts? #Never”

  63. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #58..I think you are right so I am mystified why you want to buy a bigger house? Seems like you are receiving “field” validation of your hypothesis, yet seem to want to keep looking…?

  64. JJ says:

    Percentage is really not much of an indicator to me. My taxes were 5900 12 year ago and now are 8900. Percentage wise it sounds like a big increase. But really it is 4k more a year spread out over 12 years.

    I really have to know what your taxes were 12 years ago. If my taxes were 10K 12 years ago and I got that same % raise I would be mad.

    Fast Eddie says:
    February 26, 2013 at 10:35 am

    From 2000 to 2008, property taxes went up ~75% in our area and houses went up ~87%. Since the peak, we’re down ~27% on houses while salaries have remained flat and property taxes have increased ~2% per year over the last few years and will sustain that increase into infinity. Tack on energy, food and cost of living and tell me where prices are headed in our area? Throw in the big monkey wrench called medical costs and then tell me where we are in 10 years from now.

  65. Ottoman says:

    49 – You are correct it does say ‘steps from’ can be used, however, it also says its preferred to use: ‘close to/near…’

    The fact that they included a preferred term indicates to me that its not entirely fine. Otherwise, why the suggestion? I’m guessing its because it could be construed as part of a larger pattern should something else emerge. For example:

    If someone in a wheelchair calls up and the owner says: “someone in a wheel chair wouldn’t be comfortable here” instead of “we’re not wheelchair accessible but you’re more than welcome” — that ‘steps to’ and/or ‘walks to’ might add weight to a discrimination case, regardless of the owner’s intent. Of course I’m not a lawyer.

    Here’s a PA source: Pennsylvania Residential Owners Association has a list of words they say the EHO considers watch worthy — includes ‘walk to’. This seems to show exactly what you mentioned: innocuous words that might be worth avoiding just in case. I see: “Sleeps X number of people”, “upscale”, “first time buyers” and “starter home” on this list.

    “While it would be impossible to list all possible ways this law could be violated, we have prepared the following general principals and a list of commonly used advertising words and expressions that have been found to be discriminatory by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). ”

    http://www.proassoc.org/adguide.html

  66. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    Shiny!!!

    And, yes, I BTFD!

  67. joyce says:

    Thanks, Ottoman. I read the whole thing… wow.

    44.Ottoman says:
    February 26, 2013 at 9:57 am
    Think my reply didn’t post. Trying again with just the NJ source

    from NJ Press Association
    http://www.njpa.org/njpa/legal_hotline/FairHousingLaws-Aug08.pdf

  68. yome says:

    moose
    He is agreeing to what Boehner in congress offered during the budget talk.Close loop holes and deduction on the tax code and he agrees to cut entitlements.
    The tax cuts where negotiated by the Senate and passed.

    I just want them to compromise.Reason I voted for O,I did not want a Republican President and Republican Congress do what they wish.Nobody stopping them.

  69. joyce says:

    It also illustrates the false dichotomy that’s put forth continuously being represented as different, or opposite.

    61.Anon E. Moose says:
    February 26, 2013 at 10:42 am
    Joyce [81, prev thread];

    If even Ryan’s plan to limit grown over the long term is too milquetoast, it only emphasizes my point: radical leftists claiming the middle ground and accusing the right of extremism are throwing stones from the clearest of glass houses.

  70. joyce says:

    It’s all theater.

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    1987 Condo Buyer [64],

    You said the optimum word: looking. I’m not not necessarily looking for a bigger house, just my house with maybe one more room per say and a little more green between neighbors. It’s nothing drastic yet I’m appalled at the prices for the sh1t and the lack of inventory due to the widespread stup1dity of the masses. I can’t get blood from a stone so I guess I have no alternative but to stay where I am unless the banks start releasing the pile.

  72. yome says:

    I was paying $2600 when I bought my first house in 1994 ,today I am paying $6800.It is up 250% but I dont think it is bad with increase in income and services rendered

    jj says
    JJ says:
    February 26, 2013 at 10:49 am
    Percentage is really not much of an indicator to me. My taxes were 5900 12 year ago and now are 8900. Percentage wise it sounds like a big increase. But really it is 4k more a year spread out over 12 years.

  73. maybe buyer says:

    hahaha despite the media re shills and 0 rates prices in NY region are going down. Imagine what would happen if we haven’t bottomed.
    Buy now it can only go up and if not you will enjoy homeownership

  74. Brian says:

    Could be worse. We had friends from Connecticut visiting this weekend. They mentioned they somehow pay a property tax on their cars? Somehow, the worth of thier car is assesed, then they pay a tax to their local municipality on it.

  75. Brian says:

    75 – Brazillification of the NY Metro area. Sh1tty areas are getting worse, and Blue ribbony areas untouched.

  76. JJ says:

    The data is better than it appears in NY. It is sales as on 12/31 only. Near me only pre-sandy sales that closed post sandy are included. 1q 2013 will include Sandy Sales.

    Now I am not talking storm damaged homes, places in lower manhattan, homes south of Sunrise LI, homes anywhere near Far Rockaway. Etc. Remember, also one million people in NY live in an area that can be impacted. A lot of Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens and Lower Manhattan.

    The realtor I was talking to this weekend, said several clients told her no homes south of Merrick road period. Water go no where near Merrick, but FEMA claims that is how far water could go.

    Far Rockaway and Long Beach have huge amounts of condos/coops/houses, the whole point of being there is gone, it will be crap this summer. The comps will look bad all year.

    And remember homes on dry land may do good for now. But when homes with a chance of a flood unharmed by Sandy start cutting prices people will go for it

    2014 will be the year things turn in NY/NJ we are lagging country and we have sandy fall out and high taxes. Hopefully, we get folks forced to sell finally and we clear inventory.

    maybe buyer says:
    February 26, 2013 at 11:22 am

    hahaha despite the media re shills and 0 rates prices in NY region are going down. Imagine what would happen if we haven’t bottomed.
    Buy now it can only go up and if not you will enjoy homeownership

  77. JJ says:

    From that ad you are not also allowed to say 5 minute drive

    Lower Incomes and minorities have a lower car ownership rate, so it is racial profiling.

  78. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    Lately Doonesbury has this “myFacts” theme going, and this question occurred to me: do Chris Matthews and Rachel Maddow get the volume discount?

  79. Brian says:

    80 –
    Also what if you are blind? You can’t brag about beautiful sunsets.

  80. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    Here’s a thought that no one is gonna raise with Bernanke or anywhere else: if the Europeans are unwilling to stay in austerity, what makes anyone think we will? I see the Italian vote as a precursor, and forms a predicate to my prediction that we are on the road to eurosocialism, rebranded as “progressive”. We will, as all other democracies have done, validate Tytler, Franklin, and Adams.

  81. JJ says:

    Ok an actual Real Estate Question.

    So I am going to put a bid in on a condo. Need some info what to bid. Home put up for sale week before Sandy at 360K, after Sandy in Nov price was cut to 330K. Ad says owner motivated. Further details, unit had Sandy damage to lower level, all paid for by flood insurance. This unit had zero damage. Building is scheduled to reopen next week. Building had water heaters, electric panels, etc in basement, also had ground floor units that had to be gutter.

    Owner does not want to rent and is like 80. He could rent unit for summer or get a tenant if he has as does not look like he has much of a mortgage if any as he bought pre-bubble.

    So what would be a good price to bid. In general how much % wise below ask is good to bid. Last unit sold that is identical to this unit that sold pre-sandy went for 360k.

    I was thinking do a low ball, but wife is thinking too low it might just backfire. But at same time dont want to pay too much.

    Other thing if house is listed for 330k for instance and I bid 290K does that mean the least I get it is 310K. Do we always do that meet in middle stuff.

    RE agent is doing both sides of deal. Honestly, I think she, the owner and me are all very aware of market prices and are all very realistic, however, post sandy who knows what values are.

  82. JJ says:

    I would say yes.

    Brian says:
    February 26, 2013 at 11:42 am

    80 –
    Also what if you are blind? You can’t brag about beautiful sunsets.

  83. Brian says:

    Ocean Front Home in South Seaside Park – No Groups No Proms No Pets

    Read more at http://www.homeaway.com/vacation-rental/p3006359#ZouL8A4VOvdwKOh0.99

    Discriminitory against animals and Prom Queens! Outrage!

  84. maybe buyer says:

    83

    who says they are not accepting austerity? people in Greece are starving but nothing is moving. Italy, spain same. As long as it is done gradually you will be surprised what people can swallow.

  85. Brian says:

    Steps to beach, quick walk to beach, families only, minutes from bay, etc.

    http://www.homeaway.com/search/keywords:Seaside+Park%2C+New+Jersey

  86. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    [87] maybe,

    I will await the verdict of history. I usually do well with verdicts.

  87. Brian says:

    Somebody said yesterday anything below 20% ask and you’re wasting each other’s time. I think that puts you at $264k. But that seems a bit too low. Even if you meet in the middle and come in at 310k that’s a decent discount. Don’t foget you can whittle some down off the price if you find stuff in the inspection.

    Maybe Grim or 30 year realtor has more input.

    84.JJ says:
    February 26, 2013 at 11:45 am
    Ok an actual Real Estate Question.

    So I am going to put a bid in on a condo. Need some info what to bid. Home put up for sale week before Sandy at 360K, after Sandy in Nov price was cut to 330K. Ad says owner motivated. Further details, unit had Sandy damage to lower level, all paid for by flood insurance. This unit had zero damage. Building is scheduled to reopen next week. Building had water heaters, electric panels, etc in basement, also had ground floor units that had to be gutter.

    Owner does not want to rent and is like 80. He could rent unit for summer or get a tenant if he has as does not look like he has much of a mortgage if any as he bought pre-bubble.

    So what would be a good price to bid. In general how much % wise below ask is good to bid. Last unit sold that is identical to this unit that sold pre-sandy went for 360k.

    I was thinking do a low ball, but wife is thinking too low it might just backfire. But at same time dont want to pay too much.

    Other thing if house is listed for 330k for instance and I bid 290K does that mean the least I get it is 310K. Do we always do that meet in middle stuff.

    RE agent is doing both sides of deal. Honestly, I think she, the owner and me are all very aware of market prices and are all very realistic, however, post sandy who knows what values are.

  88. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    OT alert

    Wasn’t going back to guns but this is hysterical

    http://www.ijreview.com/2013/02/38482-humorous-women-take-joe-bidens-buy-a-shotgun-advice/

  89. Phoenix says:

    92 comrade
    About the sequester, is there enough time? I don’t think so.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFEoMO0pc7k

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [88];

    Looks like Carney will have to take Woodward to the woodshed

    Liberal Icon? Single-handedly brought down Nixon?

    Pish-posh. Obama and his Chicago men will cut him open like a pig for crossing up ‘the man’.

  91. Has anybody yet mentioned to yome that Phoenix is not a state?

  92. see page says:

    Hi my friend! I want to say that this article is amazing, great written and include almost all vital infos. I’d like to see more posts like this .

  93. Libtard in the City says:

    JJ,

    Got to find comps. Only way to negotiate is to know the true value of the place. Some homes must have sold in the area post Sandy. I recommend you find a ‘useless’ realtor.

  94. Sequester away. The likely outcome will be the most unexpected- and worst- one.

  95. Ragnar says:

    The left is playing a “blame austerity” game. They reverse cause and effect. When yor economy crashes, life becomes austere, because you can’t spend money you don’t have. Krugman imagines the govt can just paper over that lack with massive deficit spending. He isn’t familiar with the concept of lenders saying no.

  96. yome says:

    Thanks clot.Everybody knew what I meant.I am sure you do too.

    Scrapple Cannon says:
    February 26, 2013 at 1:00 pm
    Has anybody yet mentioned to yome that Phoenix is not a state?

  97. yome says:

    The real question with sequester is who will feel it first.It will not happen the first 2 weeks.I am sure somebody will start hurting by the 3rd week when they start to negotiate about the budget.
    Aurora,colorado comes to mind

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-25/democrats-zero-in-on-vulnerable-republicans-tied-to-cuts.html

  98. JJ says:

    Ha, Ha, a realtor. Actually, in this case as is the case with most homes priced well at a good price you have to go to the listing realtor. They MLS these homes, but good luck getting a showing from your own realtor. I dont blame them so why share on a home that will sell.

    So buyer and me have same realtor. Anyhow. I know comps very well. This is same beach town I started looking in for first time July 2002. I bid on two starter homes, a condo and view three other homes. Basically I saw every condo/house for sale in town between July 2012 and mid October 2012 when I stopped looking. Realtor said I most likely know prices better than her as she only knows her own listings

    Trouble is only two homes sold since Sandy, one with flood damage and one that was marked down right before sandy. I do know what home I bid on in July and lost sold for in Sept 2012, and what the three other places I bid on what owner wanted. I actually bid on every home in price range in town in the fall. Then I stopped looking. Till last week. Trouble is me or sell wont know price. Hard to say post Sandy in a building that was shut down for five months. You have to realize that their is chance you could lose five months rent in future if this happens again. That alone is worth a discount.

    Libtard in the City says:
    February 26, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    JJ,

    Got to find comps. Only way to negotiate is to know the true value of the place. Some homes must have sold in the area post Sandy. I recommend you find a ‘useless’ realtor.

  99. Anon E. Moose says:

    yo [105];

    Yep, those Democrats, always ready to turn the screws in the name of ‘compromise’; and always looking out for the best interest of the people rather than their own partisan advantage.

    I thought the media screamed at us the eliminationist rhetoric like “Hit List” was tantamount to inciting violence?

  100. yome says:

    Moose,
    That is where my opinion ends with sequester. I will sit back and wait what they decide. It is all we can do. Life goes on

  101. joyce says:

    “I don’t see much evidence of an equity bubble,” Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee in his semi-annual testimony on Tuesday.

    Now it’s confirmed.

  102. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    Yome (104):
    Regarding the sequester:
    If people working for the gubbmint have not scaled back their lifestyles over the past 5 years to accomodate a potential dislocation in pay then they deserve all the pain coming to them.

    I also will sit back with some popcorn and watch the fireworks.

  103. Juice Box says:

    re #109 – 4k layoffs at JPM there is no bubble…

    Let’s recap

    Citi — 11k layoffs
    BOA –16k layoffs
    JPM – 5k layoffs including those cut in Jan from their “foreclosure review program”

    They are all going to be running out and buying houses right?

  104. joyce says:

    (7)

    The article goes on to state that these are “potential” losses and MTM, making the point that The Fed has no obligation to sell (and in fact Bernanke said today they won’t, more or less.)

    That would be true if he had the luxury of sitting on the portfolio.

    What if he has to sell?

    Here’s the problem — look at the Fed balance sheet.

    Note a few things. First, The Fed has zero in bills. Bills are short-term instruments that are mostly-insensitive to interest rates. In the extreme case you can wait the 4 (or 13, or 26, etc) weeks for them to roll off, so there is no, or nearly-no, interest-rate risk in holding them.

    However, The Fed doesn’t have any more of them. They’re all gone, having been “twisted” away.

    Everything else is interest-rate sensitive, which is where that above analysis comes from. The longer the duration the greater the mark-to-market move of a bond you’re holding when interest rates change.

    Now here’s the kicker: At present The Fed is preventing the “printed” currency they’re using to execute QE from entering the economy, causing immediate and serious inflationary pressures, from leaving The Fed. They are doing this by paying interest on these “excess reserves.”

    But as the name implies, the reserves are excess of requirements — that is, the banks cannot be required to leave them on deposit at The Fed. They do so because the interest rate The Fed pays them (out of its operating income) is greater than the risk-adjusted return they believe they could earn in the economy as a whole. Remember, back in the early days of the crisis Bernanke argued for having this power to pay interest on excess reserves for this exact reason.

    Nobody ever asked him the following question: What happens when you have a scadload of excess reserves on deposit, no short-term bills on your balance sheet at all, you’ve bought a crap-ton of long-term paper at historically low rates and rates go up?

    Suddenly from the banks’ point of view it becomes more lucrative to withdraw those reserves and put them into the economy. But if that happens inflation spikes dramatically and interest rates go up further in response!

    To prevent this The Fed would have to pay a higher rate on those excess reserves so as to maintain the preference to leave them on deposit.

    From where does it get the money to do so when it is trying to unwind the portfolio — that is, sell in the market and withdraw excess liquidity?

    This is a positive feedback situation. If The Fed sells securities to get the funds to pay the reserves with it crystallizes a mark-to-market loss into a real, honest-to-god cash operating loss and those sales will at the same time depress prices, causing rates to go higher and the mark-to-market loss on the remaining securities to increase!

    If The Fed doesn’t sell the securities then it has no funds with which to pay the excess reserve interest and the banks will withdraw those funds, causing inflation which will also drive rates higher and increase the mark-to-market loss.

    The only way The Fed gets away with this is if we are Japan — stuck in an economic environment in which there is no meaningful growth and no meaningful inflation, and therefore no reason for the banks to want to withdraw those funds nor do rates rise.

    Now remember folks, one of Bernanke’s key claims early on is that he “knew” how to avoid the Japanese problem coming here to America when the crisis hit, and that he would avoid it.

    Good luck Bernanke — you’re in a trap of your own design, you fool.
    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=218027

  105. serenity now says:

    Re#73 Eddie-
    Renovating/ adding onto existing home not a feasible option?

  106. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Human Sequester says:

    You just have to know that, for this one, the jokes are gonna write themselves:

    http://news.yahoo.com/njs-highest-court-hear-joking-080153051.html

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Human Sequester says:

    Moose,

    I was listening to Braun from the Star Ledger on hidden video (the Breitbart folks) and one of the more amusing things he said about the gun issue was that some of his progressive friends did NOT want to ban guns. Figured they would need them in case the Right took over. When Braun advanced the same antimilitia argument about the Right having the army at its disposal, it fell on deaf ears apparently.

    Amusing stuff.

  108. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Human Sequester says:

    [114] redux

    “Committee members said they were concerned that the “content of his comedy routine could . . . negatively affect the dignity of the judiciary,” according to court papers.

    I think the dignity of the judiciary in New Jersey isn’t going to be harmed by a moonlighting comedian. Not when they have examples like these fine, upstanding individuals
    http://www.notguiltynj.com/nj-prosecutor-and-judge-guilty-of-accepting-bribes/

  109. yome says:

    112 fed can sell to itself the mark to market value and write down the loss. It is like not selling.
    Anyway it will be a learning lesson for people like to read about this.

  110. 1987 condo buyer says:

    #112…doesn’t the Fed set the reserve requirements as well?

  111. joyce says:

    119

    Technically yes the FED but also the BIS… not sure how that impacts that article?

  112. grim says:

    Darn, missed a big day worth of conversation, out in Omaha with Warren and crew.

  113. grim says:

    Just starting to dig into the CS Tiered HPI.

    YOY change (NY Metro)
    Low Tier (Under $260k) – Down 1.94%
    Mid Tier ($260k-$430k) – Down 0.78%
    High Tier ($430k+) – Up 0.24%

  114. grim (121)-

    You didn’t miss much. Just some Mussolini jokes and yome confirming that he’s the dumbest person in Amerika.

  115. (117)- If this isn’t proof positive that yome is either a spambot or an escapee from Avenel, I don’t know what is:

    “…fed can sell to itself the mark to market value and write down the loss. It is like not selling.
    Anyway it will be a learning lesson for people like to read about this.”

    Then again, he could be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

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