Best spring market since 2007?

From HousingWire:

Freddie Mac predicts healthiest housing spring since 2007

Continued low mortgage rates, increased house prices and improving consumer confidence are all factors contributing to increased home sales heading into the spring homebuying season, according to Freddie Mac’s March economic and housing outlook.

Compared to 2012, Freddie Mac expects home sales to increase 8% to 10% in 2013. Housing starts are anticipated to increase to 950,000 units for 2013 compared to 780,000 in 2012.

Last year, real estate added $1.5 trillion to balance sheets, while increasing outstanding residential mortgage debt by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012. This indicates that household deleveraging may be coming to a close.

Freddie Mac warns that the unemployment rate in 2013 will average near 7.8% due to sequestration spending reductions. This will make the unemployment rate essentially flat for the year, or possibly .25 percentage points higher than it would have been sans sequestration.

According to Freddie Mac, this should be the healthiest spring homebuying season since 2007.

“History shows us not all economic recoveries are created equal and consumer confidence mirrors this fact. With the spring homebuying season upon us, the recent highs in the stock market are a welcome signal of better times ahead,” said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac.

“But it will be the gradually declining unemployment rate and steadily improving housing market that will deliver broad-based economic benefits for Americans and, in turn, support the overall recovery,” Nothaft added.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

126 Responses to Best spring market since 2007?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    Zillow showing NY Metro home prices up 2% year over year in Feb:

    30 Largest Metros Covered by Zillow All Experience Home Value Gains in Feb.

    February was another strong month for the housing market, as all 30 of the largest metro areas covered by Zillow experienced both monthly and annual home value appreciation. February represented the 16th straight month of home value gains since the market hit bottom in October 2011.

    U.S. home values rose 0.1 percent in February compared with January, to $158,100, and were up 5.8 percent year-over-year. The 5.8 percent annual gain is the second-largest since August 2006, exceeded only by January’s 6 percent year-over-year jump. The last time national home values were at this level was in June 2004.

    The large annual gain is well above historic norms more typical of healthy markets of roughly 3 percent, and are largely unsustainable and not expected to continue. For the 12-month period from February 2013 through February 2014, U.S. home values are expected to rise 3.2 percent to approximately $163,100, according to the Zillow Home Value Forecast. A large part of this moderation in home value appreciation is expected to come from more homes entering the market in coming months.

    “The housing market recovery has continued to gain momentum over the past several months and looks firmly entrenched as we enter the 2013 spring home shopping season,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “We expect that rising home values will continue to help cure many of the ills still facing the housing market, including high levels of negative equity. Rising home values will free many more homeowners from negative equity, allowing some of them to list their homes for sale which, in turn, will ease supply constraints. Burgeoning new construction will also help bring more supply into the marketplace. As more supply comes on line, home value appreciation rates will moderate and stabilize, marking the final transition from a recovering market to a healthy and sustainable market.”

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Probably Climbed to Three-Year High

    Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably rose in February to the highest level in more than three years, sustaining a rebound that is bolstering growth, economists said before a report today.

    Purchases increased 1.6 percent to a 5 million annualized rate, the most since November 2009, according to the median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Other data may show an index of leading economic indicators advanced for a third straight month.

    Growing demand for homes combined with limited supply is pushing property values up, leading to gains in household confidence and wealth that are helping propel consumer spending. Easier access to credit and bigger gains in employment may be needed to give the housing market an additional boost and ensure it will keep contributing to the economy.

    Housing “is finally in recovery mode,” said Carl Riccadonna, a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “Housing as a share of the economy is small, but the roots are very deep and very broad.”

    The Realtors’ report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 4.85 million to 5.15 million.

  4. grim says:

    From Trulia:

    Trulia Reports Buying a Home in Top 100 Major Metros Is Cheaper Than Renting Despite Rising Home Prices

    Trulia TRLA today released its Winter 2013 Rent vs. Buy Report, which provides the inside scoop on whether buying a home is more affordable than renting in America’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. Looking at homes for sale and for rent on Trulia between December 1, 2012, and February 28, 2013, this study compares the average cost of renting and owning for all homes on the market in a metro area, factoring in all cost components including transaction costs, taxes, and opportunity costs.

    Asking home prices rose 7.0 percent year-over-year (Y-o-Y) nationally in February, outpacing rents, which rose 3.2 percent Y-o-Y, according to the Trulia Price and Rent Monitors. However, today’s low mortgage rates, at 3.5 percent at the end of February(1), have kept the cost of homeownership from rising much. In fact, buying a home is 44 percent cheaper than renting nationwide – down just slightly from 46 percent in 2012. Even in each of the 100 largest metros, buying is more affordable than renting, though how much more affordable homeownership is ranges significantly – from 70 percent cheaper to buy than rent in Detroit, to only 19 percent cheaper in San Francisco.

    (Report says it’s 26% cheaper to buy than to rent in the NY Metro.)

  5. grim says:

    From the WaPo:

    Where the rich are (Incomes of $191k+)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census-high-income/

    NJ with 3 counties in the top 15

  6. Mike says:

    This is one time I would recommend to our elected leaders, that they pay attention to the advice of Vladimir Putin….how scary is that?
    Spread the word and pass this on, and on, and on.

    On February 4th, 2013, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president,
    addressed the Duma, (Russian Parliament), and gave a speech about the
    tensions with minorities in Russia:

    “In Russia live Russians. Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants
    to live in Russia, to work and eat in Russia, should speak Russian,
    and should respect the Russian laws. If they prefer Shari ‘a Law, then
    we advise them to go to those places where that’s the state law.
    Russia does not need minorities. Minorities need Russia, and we will
    not grant them special privileges, or try to change our laws to fit
    their desires, no matter how loud they yell ‘discrimination’. We
    better learn from the suicides of America, England, Holland and
    France, if we are to survive as a nation. The Russian customs and
    traditions are not compatible with the lack of culture or the
    primitive ways of most minorities. When this honourable legislative
    body thinks of creating new laws, it should have in mind the national
    interest first, observing that the minorities are not Russians.

    The politicians in the Duma gave Putin a standing ovation for five minutes

  7. Mike says:

    5 Guess I’m Just Union County Trash

  8. grim says:

    Grim,
    In NNJ, when does the inventory peak?

    Total actives peak in July/August typically. Every once in a while you get a dip in August and a spike back up in September.

  9. grim says:

    Now from a new listings perspective, typically March-June are the big months for new listings, sometimes that holds into July, and then tapers down after that.

  10. anon (the good one) says:

    at this pace, only Hillary can stop Hillary in 2016

    March 19, 2013, 1:40 P.M. ET
    Private Company Profits Soar

    By Richard C. Morais

    Any of you folk out there who don’t trust this rising stock market – or, for that matter, the general idea that the U.S. economy is growing stronger – should know that the average net profit margin of the nation’s privately-held companies has spiked considerably, to 7.5%, in the trailing 12 months. That’s up significantly from the narrow 3.3% to 5% band where private-company net margins were trading during the previous five years. Furthermore, statistics for just the last six months, ending in January, shows that the average net profit margin was an even more robust 8.1%, suggesting economic growth is feeding on itself and on a bit of a roll.

    The firm that put this data together, Sageworks, does nothing else but analyze “several hundred thousand” privately-held companies in its database. The firm claims that “private-company credit risk also appears to be improving,” with the average private company’s likelihood of default currently standing at 3.2%, down from 4.3% a year ago. “Overall, sales are strong, though growing at a slower rate than they were a year ago, and net profit margins are above prerecession levels.”

    Private construction companies continue to report higher sales growth now than a year ago, validating the positive news coming from the U.S. housing market, while privately held manufacturer, retailer and wholesaler sales are growing slower now than they were a year ago. Still, says Sageworks analyst, Libby Bierman, “sales in all three sectors look to be heading in the right direction.”

  11. grim says:

    A $600k condo in Doylestown? What am I missing?

  12. grim says:

    Jobless Claims in at 336k, 4wk average down to 339,750. Strong numbers, the 4 week average is at its lowest level since Feb 2008.

  13. Mike says:

    10 Oh well, still would love to hear it come out of a politicians mouth.

  14. JJ says:

    22237AAB2
    COUNTRYWIDE CAP III SB CAP-B 8.05000% 06/15/2027
    Price 118.000 Price 120.000

    Chifi did you every think Countrywide Bonds be trading at 120!!!

    I own this one, I got burnt on my damm BAC TRUPs getting called early but this one is liquid gold,.

  15. JJ says:

    I honestly believe there is zero unemployment. Folks I know laid off are pursuing jobs they like, their old jobs etc. When I mention tons of jobs near me selling cars or doing home improvement and you could earn six figures they all look at me like I am crazy.

    If they were truly looking for work great depression style they would do anything.

  16. grim says:

    JJ – Did you see this one the other day?

    The New Underground Economy

    Something fishy is going on in consumers’ wallets.

    Household spending has held up surprisingly well in recent months, even though new taxes have reduced paychecks and other problems are holding back the economy. Incomes haven’t risen by nearly enough to explain the entire boost in spending. Nor has the use of credit cards.

    When your teenager starts wearing expensive clothes and flashing bling he couldn’t possibly afford through his part-time job, you start to wonder where the money is coming from. Some economists are asking the same question about consumers who seem more flush than they ought to be. The answer may lie in the large “underground” economy that doesn’t show up in official statistics.

    “Many of those who have left the labor force since the last recession have managed to earn income in the shadow economy,” he believes. “Their spending still shows up in the official retail sales and personal consumption data.”

    That may help explain one troubling trend—a sharp decline in the labor-force participation rate, which measures the percentage of the adult population considered to be either employed or looking for work. The participation rate has dropped from a peak of 67.3 percent in 2001 to 63.5 percent today. The last time it was that low was 1979. Some economists think this reflects a worn-out workforce resigned to long-term decline. But it might show a migration of workers from the official economy to the underground one instead.

    Economists estimate the size of the underground economy at somewhere between 8 percent and 14 percent of total GPD, which could amount to as much as $2 trillion worth of economic activity. Authorities in California say off-the-books transactions cost the state $6.5 billion in lost tax revenue every year.

  17. Ottoman says:

    “A $600k condo in Doylestown? What am I missing?”

    Doylestown is the Ridgewood of Bucks County. Although the architecture is much, much nicer in Doylestown, it has become almost as cunnty as Bergen County. There’s an effing Denim Bar in town where they serve you custom jeans.

  18. Comrade Nom DePlume says:

    [178] Fabius,

    [Sound of slapped forehead]. Why do I keep taking your troll bait? There’s a gulf of logic and fact btwn reality and your blanket conclusion that W “threw the 4A under the bus.” And, once again, you are gonna cry copout that I am not going to give you a legal memo on the legislation, regs, and prior law, but you are so deep into your politically motivated worldview, that you won’t see these, or even appreciate the distinction between expand and create. And, inasmuch as your point is political more than it is legal, you certainly can’t see all the yes votes from democrats on the legislation, nor could you see Obamas signature on re authorization. You only see W and conclude that what is basically an incremental change is tantamount to shredding the bill of rights. So why should I devote more time to this and provide a lot of free legal analysis that you won’t believe anyway?

    But I will let you call me out. I’ll take you seriously and give you a serious response when I get your retainer check.

  19. JJ says:

    Considering when I did my home repairs 90% of people wanted cash only or at best checks made out to cash it is not surprising. Even materials I bought some of the stores I used in Queens wanted cash or check. We also had lots of coffee trucks floating around as tons of workers, once again cash. On top of that garage sales, internet sales etc all cash. I made like $2,000 a year scalping tickets online, not much but once again that is fun money to spend.

    Even home inspector I hired told me bring cash if you can it is his preferred method of payment.

    Plus dancers, cab drivers, day laborers, even my dry cleaner all pay employees cash. No other choice. It is going to get worse with Obama care.

    grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 7:39 am

    JJ – Did you see this one the other day?

    The New Underground Economy

    Something fishy is going on in consumers’ wallets.

  20. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [5];

    But not Bergen Co. What happened to immigrants awash in money and proximity to NYC and train towns? Poseurs.

  21. grim says:

    Bergen ticked in at 14% of households with incomes above $191k

  22. JJ says:

    48 Barnes St, Long Beach NY, 11561

    Worst condition AS IS house I have ever Seen!!!!

  23. JJ says:

    Hopefully that is year to date income.

    grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:02 am

    Bergen ticked in at 14% of households with incomes above $191k

  24. yome says:

    FHFA house price index m/m change = 0.6%

  25. grim says:

    Bergen County Households = 333k
    Hunterdon County Households = 47k

    Bergen at 14% is 46k households above $191k
    Hunterdon at 20% is 9.5k households above $191k.

    So technically, Bergen has as many households earning $191k+ as almost the whole of Hunterdon.

  26. Ottoman says:

    Bergen County has almost 2.5 times more people in the $191k+ club than Loudoun County.

  27. Brian says:

    You sound like a good boss to work for. I get the feeling you overpay your employees.

    26.JJ says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:04 am
    Hopefully that is year to date income.

    grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:02 am

    Bergen ticked in at 14% of households with incomes above $191k

  28. JJ says:

    191K used to be a lot of money. But when you look at financial statements like Goldman and dig down you see the anomaly the SS with holding only occurs in January for majority of company. Meaning the average worker earned in excess of $113,700 in January alone.

    191K is still a very very good income for one person. 191K for total household income of a dual income couple including all other income like dividends, capital gains and interest is nothing.

  29. freedy says:

    Does Hunterton have Englewood,Wallington,N.Arlington,Lodi,etc?

  30. JJ says:

    I overpay them and give them free snacks and drinks and let them go home at five pm sharp. Sadly, the lazy ones if you treat them too well they never leave so you have to turn the screws a bit to get them out now and then. The good ones over time like a rich kid starts to fail to appreciate how good they have it and sometimes quits only to discover the big bonus never comes and they are now working late every night.

    But to be honest years 2-7 are the most productive years anyhow. Once they know the job and company and before they get burnt out by repetition. So it is good they move on usually, one only needs a good right hand man to lead the troops while the general stays in the back

    Brian says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:23 am

    You sound like a good boss to work for. I get the feeling you overpay your employees.

    26.JJ says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:04 am
    Hopefully that is year to date income.

  31. Pete says:

    Where do all these high income people in Hunterdon county work?

  32. xolepa says:

    (29) Conversely, how many more poor people live in Bergen than in Hunterdon? Probably a ratio of 20:1, more than offsetting BC for its lackluster income ranking.

    Bergen County is drivepast (aka flyover) country for me.

  33. JJ says:

    The TV show “The Neighbors” and Hunterdon have a lot in common. For starters both based in Jersey, everyone has plenty of money, no one apparently works or leaves the neighborhood and there are lots of weird folk

    Pete says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:34 am

    Where do all these high income people in Hunterdon county work?

  34. xolepa says:

    (35) Pete, being that I live in Hunterdon, I can attest to this: I have about 7 families that live on my street. Out of those, 4 are self-employed. The rest are professional types, they do not commute far and some work from home (like me, most of the time, anyway). The next street over, there are doctors, lawyers and professionals. None that I know of depend on NYC for their bread and butter. I do know of others that have long commutes to NYC and surrounding area, but the majority work in Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and Middlesex counties. That’s why we’re out here. We keep NYC in the distance. In fact, some of our neighbors live high in the hills, such that they can see planes lifting off from JFK. And some views from Tewksbury are tri-state. Absolutely fantastic.

  35. Brian says:

    Somerset County.

    35.Pete says:
    March 21, 2013 at 8:34 am
    Where do all these high income people in Hunterdon county work?

  36. xolepa says:

    (37) I personally know of about 2 places in the entire county that stay open past midnight. That includes weekends. The bars try to stay open past midnight, but everyone has gone home by then. You also don’t see many young drivers on the road. Either they’re student age or married w/kids+ age.

  37. Ragnar says:

    Chifi, from yesterday’s post.
    I’m the poster formerly known as A. West, decided to become more anonymous. I’m also busier than ever, plus after moving to my big new house in Bwater in 2010, I’m thinking less about real estate, probably more about property taxes.
    C.Moody has a great depth of knowledge of the firm, btw.

  38. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Existing-home sales rise 0.8%

    Existing-home sales rose 0.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.98 million, reaching the highest level since November 2009, as inventories posted an unusually large gain in the month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a pace of 5.02 million for February, compared with an original estimate of a 4.92 million rate in January. On Thursday, NAR upwardly revised January’s rate to 4.94 million. Inventories rose 9.6% in February to 1.94 million existing homes for sale. The months’ supply rose to 4.7 in February from 4.3 in January, the first gain since April, but still a relatively low figure. Compared to February 2012, the median sales price rose 11.6% to $173,600.

  39. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    Existing Home Sales Hit 3-Year High but Miss Forecasts

    U.S. home resales hit a three-year high in February and prices jumped, adding to signs of an acceleration in the housing market recovery, even though the supply of properties on the market increased.

    The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales increased 0.8 percent to an annual rate of 4.98 million units last month, the highest level since November 2009. The January sales pace was revised up a 4.94 million units from the previously reported 4.92 million units.

    Economists polled by Reuters had expected home resales to rise to a 5 million-unit rate.

    The rise in sales last month was the latest indication that the housing market was gaining more ground. Data this week showed builders broke ground on more houses in February and permits for future construction approached a five-year high.

  40. JJ says:

    Prices jumped 14.1 percent from a year earlier in the Mountain area, which includes Arizona, Nevada, Montana and New Mexico. In the Pacific region, including California and Washington, the gain was 13.7 percent, the FHFA said. The Middle Atlantic area — New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — had the smallest increase, at 0.4 percent.

  41. grim says:

    Philly Fed comes in with a positive print this morning as well, positive data day for sure.

  42. Juice Box says:

    re “Best spring market since 2007”

    Not if you are a home builder.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HSN1F

  43. POS cape says:

    14 Grim:

    600K and no garage. No thanks.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Re:43 NAR admiited to revising their numbers up before by as much
    As 15 percent. Who is to say they aren’t fudging now?

  45. Brian says:

    I always thought Bergen County was the center of the universe. Why would anyone want to live anywhere else?

    14.grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 7:29 am
    A $600k condo in Doylestown? What am I missing?

  46. grim says:

    49 – Because it would destroy any remaining shreds of credibility, and they wouldn’t dare take that chance.

  47. Libtard in Union says:

    “remaining shreds of credibility”

    Shreds is too generous of a word. How about ashes or crumbs?

  48. Statler Waldorf says:

    “NJ with 3 counties in the top 15”

    The Post’s analysis by county would be 1,000 times more useful if it instead looked at zip codes. An entire county is too wide a net to have any meaning; real estate varies by town, by neighborhood, and even by street. An analysis by zip code is a fair enough approach.

  49. grim says:

    Do you know how to use ARCGIS Explorer?

    You can get median household income by neighborhood, along with the breakdowns and number of households by decile.

    For example, in my own immediate neighborhood.

    $125-$149k – 35 households
    $150-$199k – 90 households
    $200-$249k – 40 households
    $250-$499k – 41 households
    $500k+ – 2 households

  50. grim says:

    The level of neighborhood/block detail is incredible, this is at least 2 orders of magnitude more detailed than zip data. This is census 2010 data.

    http://njrereport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/grims_hood_income.png

  51. Statler Waldorf says:

    Top 100 NJ towns by income…

    Rank Place County Per Capita Income
    ————————————————-
    1 Mantoloking Ocean County $114,017
    2 Saddle River Bergen County $85,934
    3 Far Hills Somerset County $81,535
    4 Essex Fells Essex County $77,434
    5 Alpine Bergen County $76,995
    6 Millburn Essex County $76,796
    7 Rumson Monmouth County $73,692
    8 Harding Township Morris County $72,689
    9 Teterboro Bergen County $72,613
    10 Bernardsville Somerset County $69,854
    11 Chatham Township Morris County $65,497
    12 Tewksbury Township Hunterdon County $65,470
    13 Mountain Lakes Morris County $65,086
    14 Sea Girt Monmouth County $63,871
    15 Ho-Ho-Kus Bergen County $63,594
    16 Summit Union County $62,598
    17 Mendham Township Morris County $61,460
    18 Franklin Lakes Bergen County $59,763
    19 Spring Lake Monmouth County $59,445
    20 Watchung Somerset County $58,653
    21 Englewood Cliffs Bergen County $57,399
    22 Upper Saddle River Bergen County $57,239
    23 Peapack-Gladstone Somerset County $56,542
    24 Bernards Township Somerset County $56,521
    25 Princeton Township Mercer County $56,360
    26 Chester Township Morris County $55,353
    27 Diamond Beach Cape May County $54,883
    28 Morris Township Morris County $54,782
    29 Bedminster Township Somerset County $53,549
    30 Woodcliff Lake Bergen County $53,461
    31 Tenafly Bergen County $53,170
    32 Chatham Morris County $53,027
    33 Monmouth Beach Monmouth County $52,862
    34 Cape May Point Cape May County $52,689
    35 Strathmere Cape May County $52,045
    36 Demarest Bergen County $51,939
    37 Ridgewood Bergen County $51,658
    38 Cranbury Middlesex County $51,095
    39 Longport Atlantic County $50,884
    40 Cranbury Township Middlesex County $50,698
    41 Avalon Cape May County $50,016
    42 Bay Head Ocean County $49,639
    43 Warren Township Somerset County $49,475
    44 Wyckoff Bergen County $49,375
    45 Rockleigh Bergen County $48,935
    46 Montgomery Township Somerset County $48,699
    47 Mendham Morris County $48,629
    48 West Windsor Township Mercer County $48,511
    49 Glen Ridge Essex County $48,456
    50 Old Tappan Bergen County $48,367
    51 Rocky Hill Somerset County $48,357
    52 North Caldwell Essex County $48,249
    53 Holmdel Township Monmouth County $47,898
    54 Allendale Bergen County $47,772
    55 Mountainside Union County $47,474
    56 Interlaken Monmouth County $47,218
    57 Livingston Essex County $47,218
    58 Westfield Union County $47,187
    59 Little Silver Monmouth County $46,798
    60 Colts Neck Township Monmouth County $46,795
    61 Stone Harbor Cape May County $46,427
    62 Pennington Mercer County $45,843
    63 Allamuchy-Panther Valley Warren County $45,829
    64 Kinnelon Morris County $45,796
    65 Haworth Bergen County $45,615
    66 Montvale Bergen County $45,448
    67 Glen Rock Bergen County $45,091
    68 Sea Bright Monmouth County $45,066
    69 Boonton Township Morris County $45,014
    70 Montclair Essex County $44,870
    71 Mahwah Bergen County $44,709
    72 Princeton Junction Mercer County $44,113
    73 Fair Haven Monmouth County $44,018
    74 Berkeley Heights Union County $43,981
    75 Hopewell Township Mercer County $43,947
    76 Princeton North Mercer County $43,903
    77 Springdale Camden County $43,752
    78 Allamuchy Township Warren County $43,552
    79 Montville Morris County $43,341
    80 Hoboken Hudson County $43,195
    81 Haddonfield Camden County $43,170
    82 Randolph Township Morris County $43,072
    83 New Providence Union County $42,995
    84 Allenhurst Monmouth County $42,710
    85 Edgewater Bergen County $42,650
    86 Long Hill Township Morris County $42,613
    87 Chester Morris County $42,564
    88 Moorestown Township Burlington County $42,154
    89 Florham Park Morris County $42,133
    90 Ramsey Bergen County $41,964
    91 Paramus Bergen County $41,913
    92 Cresskill Bergen County $41,573
    93 Roseland Essex County $41,415
    94 Branchburg Township Somerset County $41,241
    95 Avon-by-the-Sea Monmouth County $41,238
    96 Verona Essex County $41,202
    97 South Orange Essex County $41,035
    98 Readington Hunterdon County $41,000
    99 River Vale Bergen County $40,709
    100 Heathcote Middlesex County $40,641

  52. Statler Waldorf says:

    Grim, was copy-and-pasting while you were typing.

  53. JJ says:

    75,000 contracts mini contracts this week the retail investor is alive and very bullish. Dow 15k baby

  54. JJ says:

    5 Alpine Bergen County $76,995

    How much unreported income is there in Alpine, five million dollar homes for sale and 76K income

  55. grim says:

    That is per capita personal income, it’s really a very different measure than household income.

    Per capita takes all the income, puts it in a pool, and divides the pool by the number of heads.

  56. Ottoman says:

    53 – Agreed. Falls Church Va is a city/county with about 5,000 people total.

    Just the raw number of peeps in the 191k plus category per county would also be a better indicator of where the wealth is. Forget the percent of population BS. Manhattan, Nassau, Westchester, Fairfield and Bergen would all be way up near the top based on how many “richies” live there. Only Fairfax VA and Montgomery MD would make it to the top in the DC area. Hunterdon would also sink like a stone.

  57. maybe buyer says:

    A simple interface to census 2010 status is here

    http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/explorer

    I was just looking at it to see where the differences of various towns are. Instead of high income look at high education….

  58. Ottoman says:

    Never heard of number 100 – “Heathcote NJ”

    Re: Alpine, when’s the last time you heard about Lil Kim getting paid? Mary J. Blige also in financial trouble.

    JJ says:
    March 21, 2013 at 11:04 am
    5 Alpine Bergen County $76,995

    How much unreported income is there in Alpine, five million dollar homes for sale and 76K income

  59. Mike says:

    Saw some Union County towns in there, I’m feeling kind of special

  60. grim says:

    63 – There are neighborhoods within Alpine with more than a hundred households in the $249-$500k range, and close to 50 in the $500k+ group.

  61. Statler Waldorf says:

    There’s also no date on the data. It’s probably very old.

    Not a very useful set of data, but that’s the breakdown by town that’s far more meaningful than breakdown by county (virtually meaningless).

    Rank Place County Per Capita Income
    ————————————————-
    1 Mantoloking Ocean County $114,017

  62. Statler Waldorf says:

    Note the counties vary across the board. There is no such thing as a “prestigious” county.

  63. JJ says:

    There are folks in Alpine who make that much weekly

    grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 11:14 am

    63 – There are neighborhoods within Alpine with more than a hundred households in the $249-$500k range, and close to 50 in the $500k+ group.
    grim says:
    March 21, 2013 at 11:14 am

    63 – There are neighborhoods within Alpine with more than a hundred households in the $249-$500k range, and close to 50 in the $500k+ group.

  64. Libtard in Union says:

    ““Heathcote NJ””

    Wow…you just found Corzine’s secret tax haven.

  65. Libtard in Union says:

    Who really cares about those numbers. They really don’t tell much. There are areas in Montclair where not a home on the block and adjoining blocks are under 7 figures. Then there are entire neighborhoods where you could add up all of the income and it wouldn’t equaly 7 figures. With that said…We’re #49!!!

  66. Libtard in Union says:

    “We’re #49!!!”

    Eat that Colt’s Neck renter!

  67. Juice Box says:

    re # 56 – If you exclude the indigents Hoboken would be #1.

  68. grim says:

    Stu – Don’t know why, but Estates always shocks me when I see it. It’s probably one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in all of NJ, yet it seldom makes it on a list because it’s dragged down by the neighboring areas.

    Median household income – $254k – that’s the MEDIAN. 63 households in the $500k+ range.

    http://njrereport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/estates.png

  69. JJ says:

    254K is the average income of a 30 year old couple.

  70. Brian says:

    I need to ask for a raise.

  71. grim says:

    75 – Don’t even look at some of the census blocks around Central Park. There are 2-3 block areas that have more than 350 $500k households (Columbus circle)

  72. Juice Box says:

    There are only 1.699 million households that earn above 250k.

    The next lower bracket 200k-249k has only 1.35 million households

    The rest are just scraping by. Hurry up now and buy before you are priced out forever.

  73. Juice Box says:

    Grim can you do Maxwell Place in Hoboken? I want to know how the poor they are now now with Corzine no longer living there.

  74. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    I need to start an investment bank

  75. grim says:

    79 – It is wholly unimpressive, 51 in the $250-499k and 5 in the $500k+. That’s the whole waterfront from the bridge to Stevens Park.

    Newport area in JC is very strong though, 351 households between $250-499k and 68 at the $500k+ range.

  76. Juice Box says:

    If that is current data Grim it’s been a bad few bonus years for Wall st.

  77. Juice Box says:

    How about JJ’s town? I bet there are plenty earning less that 249k.

  78. grim says:

    Washington between 14th and 9th isn’t too bad 203 in the $250-499k and 48 in the $500k plus

  79. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of NYC and real-estate, it’s buy buy buy up all the rental buildings.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-20/nyc-apartment-investors-seek-big-returns-by-buying-small.html

  80. yome says:

    Grim
    I wonder about zip 08818. Camden of the north

  81. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [83];

    That’s the whole point of JJ’s MO (and I don’t find it unpersuasive). You live among blue collar upper middle class, you don’t end up with your kids expecting a Jag for her 17th birthday because everyone else’s Beemers are out of style, or any other of a range of Patty Hearst trustafarian parade of horribles because their idea of a good time is to be more outrageous to their parents than their peers.

  82. Juice Box says:

    Re: # 84 – Grim I never knew my neighbors were so poor. I am going to have to move somewhere more wealthy like JJ’s town. How about zip 11561

  83. grim says:

    Long Beach is broken up into like 20-30 individual areas.

  84. grim says:

    Looks like the wealthiest part of town is south of W. Park between Laurelton and Magnolia.

  85. Juice Box says:

    That little town? Only 33k people live there.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/Long-beach-ny-map.gif

  86. yome says:

    I will bet more than 50 makes over $299k in 08820.The Indians alone in grove street will have at least 15

  87. Juice Box says:

    re #87- Moose don’t you know any accountants personally? They all squeak when they walk. JJ is a walking talking living breathing perfect example of an Irish Accountant which is the worse kind of all. I bet he resoles his own shoes instead of having the shoemaker in town do them and drinks only tap water to save a buck.

    JJ where is the cheapest eats downtown?

  88. yome says:

    08820 Income Tax Overview
    Total Number of Tax Returns for ZIP Code 08820 [1] 18,475
    Total Number of Joint Tax Returns for ZIP Code 08820 9,724
    Total Number of Dependents for ZIP Code 08820 7,492
    Total Adjusted Gross Income for ZIP Code 08820 1,781,740,406
    Average Income per Person for ZIP Code 08820 $45,005

  89. Juice Box says:

    So when does Uncle Bernake step in and offer Cyprus banks a lifeline?

  90. grim says:

    92 – The area around Metuchen Country Club is the wealthiest, median household income $201k

  91. grim says:

    And here I was, this whole time, thinking those Lululemon yoga pants were *supposed to be* transparent, you know, so housewives could attract attention to themselves (really just their pink thongs). I’m sure JJ can offer some better color on this.

    Yes yes, we’re all shocked to have discovered they are transparent!

    Lululemon Discovers What Men Have Always Known: Yoga Pants Are See-Through

    Almost immediately, Lululemon’s stock plunged. But while the company scrambled to stanch the blood, putting out an apology and setting up a website devoted to the issue, yogis around the world wondered aloud: Why all the fuss? Since when are yoga clothes NOT transparent?

    “I was confused about all of the hullabaloo about sheer,” a New York City-based consultant and avid yoga practictioner who wished to remain anonymous, told The Daily Beast. “I never thought it was an issue, I thought it was a feature.”

    His thoughts are echoed by other male yoga enthusiasts who spoke with The Daily Beast. “Ninety percent of women wear Lululemon and maybe I’d say half of those pants are see-through,” explained Josh Books, a 23-year-old marketing professional in New York City. Jared Greene, a 26-year-old engineer in Washington D.C., agrees: “I see it in every class, it’s noticeable. For sure it’s a turn-on, it’s hot, but no one really goes to class just for that. I’m not going to say I hate it though, it makes [yoga] more fun.”

    Women polled by The Daily Beast said they don’t think other women are purposefully wearing sheer yoga bottoms. “I think they are just unknowing,” said Holly Ramey, an instructor at YogaWorks on New York City’s Upper West Side. “You probably can’t tell when you are in the dressing room and then you bend over in class. Unless someone tells you, you really won’t notice—your head is down when your butt is up.”

  92. xolepa says:

    Looks like Grim has extra time on his hands today.

    Why aren’t you selling houses instead? This banality reminds me of my wife’s passion for American Idol.

  93. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    Getting a little heated over in Cyprus:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-21/cyp-riots-begin

  94. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    cypriot ryhmes with idiot. Can we just get this all over with in europe everyone knows they are the first house of cards to fall.

  95. Juice Box says:

    I bet uncle Benny has some spare Euros laying around for the Cypriots. Nothing like buying up some Junk Greek Bonds for some spare Euros.

  96. Brian says:

    They are rioting because of the shortage of tight black ladies pants. It’s worldwide panic out there.

    Over the weekend, reports the Wall Street Journal , yoga clothing manufacturer Lululemon made a shocking announcement: a recent batch of its piping hot black yoga pants had been made too sheer. Their rump-coverage, explained Lululemon “[fell] short of our very high standards.” The pants could not be sold.

    For a nation where black yoga pants are considered not a right, but a given, the widespread implications of this did not at first sink in. It was as if Lululemon had released a statement saying “Unfortunately, the sky has been turned to glass,” or “Tuesday has been cancelled.”

  97. Juice Box says:

    JJ is busy over here I guess.

    http://www.girlsinyogapants.com/

  98. Nicholas says:

    Grim,

    In reference to your post at #2 about how buying a home is cheaper than renting in many areas. I think that these statistics really fail to capture all the metrics that go into home purchases in today’s market.

    this study compares the average cost of renting and owning for all homes on the market in a metro area, factoring in all cost components including transaction costs, taxes, and opportunity costs.

    One of the things that I fail to see taken into account is the maintenance that hasn’t been done on these homes because they are underwater. Often I walk into listings and find that the home had some small problem that wasn’t repaired that became a large problem. Yes the listing is cheap and even accounting for transaction costs, taxes, and opportunity costs they appear to be better deals than renting they often require a large amount of capital to bring the home back to a non-deteriorating state.

    For example, walked into one home and the fireplace was covered in plastic. I asked the homeowner if the fireplace worked and he stuttered and said “I don’t know, I haven’t ever used it”. All the while his wife is standing behind him and her eyes go taught like a hole in the earth is going to open up and have all hell swallow him up for lying. Yeah, house is cheap but I’m going to have to pull down that chiminy to get things back to code.

  99. JJ says:

    The ceo just said put the pants on and dont bend over

  100. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    Pain (100):

    You know things are bad with the EU banking system when a little backwater island like Cyprus can cause such a panic. I am sure the nannycrats in Brussels thought that the gubbmint of Cyprus would just rollover and accept the deal. However, the nannycrats do not have to face Putin and all the KGB money that is frozen up in those insolvent banks.
    Also, why would you force Cyprus’ hand when they are sitting on all that natural gas. Cyprus can just take some bailout money from Russia and turn over the southern EU gas reserves to them. Then Russia will control basicaly all natural gas going to the EU.

    Shows you how detached from reality those EU technocrats really are.

    Gonna be a cold winter in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands next year. Hope they go long blankets.

  101. JJ says:

    Indian taco place up by brown brothers/CMP, White horse, Yips

    Juice Box says:
    March 21, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    re #87- Moose don’t you know any accountants personally? They all squeak when they walk. JJ is a walking talking living breathing perfect example of an Irish Accountant which is the worse kind of all. I bet he resoles his own shoes instead of having the shoemaker in town do them and drinks only tap water to save a buck.

    JJ where is the cheapest eats downtown?

  102. Juice Box says:

    re # 107 – Some commentator on Bloomberg this morning said that Europe basically needs to kick Germany out of the EU. They cannot have them controlling the ECB in Frankfurt etc they need to print our way out etc, contagion, Bla, Bla, bank run Tuesday the sky will fall, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together…

  103. chicagofinance says:

    He is quite self-effacing as a presenter. He followed Bob Doll and kept reverently referring to him, but Doll is so sterile as a presenter. Doll hits on good points, but has no passion. Moody was far more interesting……I wanted to ask which of the emerging/frontier governments he actually trusts. As far as I am concerned, BRIC is off the table; each has their own defect. He tossed out SQM, and I actually thought it makes sense because Chile doesn’t obstruct. I don’t expect an answer, because this forum is so public.

    Ragnar says:
    March 21, 2013 at 9:11 am
    C.Moody has a great depth of knowledge of the firm, btw.

  104. chicagofinance says:

    THIS is liquid gold……
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0LaiARPC4w

    JJ says:
    March 21, 2013 at 7:35 am
    COUNTRYWIDE CAP III SB CAP-B 8.05000% 06/15/2027
    Chifi did you every think Countrywide Bonds be trading at 120!!!
    I own this one, I got burnt on my damm BAC TRUPs getting called early but this one is liquid gold.

  105. Painhrtz - Doc Daneeka says:

    Hype they’ll really mean it when Lichtenstien and Andorra topple. Hope the russians turn off the gas. Nothing better than listen to socialists whine.

  106. JJ says:

    Here’s BBH on the impact of rising rates:

    We expect the inevitable increase in rates to be gradual, and concentrated in longer maturities over the next several years. According to our calculations, the price impact of a gradual yield curve steepening resulting from higher long-maturity rates will be largely offset by income and the favorable impact of yield curve roll down, or the price appreciation associated with a security aging along the positively-sloped yield curve. As a result, we expect fairly modest municipal bond portfolio returns in the low single digits over the next few years.

    BBH also says that until recently it had little trouble identifying “a wide range of durable municipal credits, particularly revenue issuers, at attractive valuations,” but that buying new bonds “has proven to be a greater challenge as spreads and rates have been materially contracting.” More from BBH:

    [W]hen we cannot source attractively-priced opportunities, we place our client’s assets in liquid reserves. Presently, our core municipal portfolios maintain reserve positions at 12%. In the meantime, we remain cautiously optimistic for continued improvements in the U.S. economy and subsequently, municipal fundamentals. We expect to maintain significant concentrations to revenue bonds and structured securities in our client portfolios.

  107. Juice Box says:

    Sleep where Bon Jovi slept only a cool 42 mil, (he paid 24 mil 6 years ago)

    http://homes.yahoo.com/news/inside-bon-jovis-swank-nyc-penthouse-now-asking-141500522.html

  108. Statler Waldorf says:

    These two sickos were thankfully arrested.

    http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/investigators&id=9034923

    JERSEY CITY (WABC) — A young Brooklyn couple is being held without bail Thursday, accused of plotting to open up a day care business to drug and sexually abuse children.

    Bebars Baslan, 35, and his 25-year-old girlfriend Kristin Henry were busted by the FBI at a hotel Tuesday night in Jersey City, where the couple apparently thought they were putting part of their plan into action. Instead, it was a sting operation.

    Baslan and Henry allegedly thought they were going to rendezvous with three little children, including a 2-month-old, to take sexually-explicit photos.

    This investigation unfolded rapidly within the past month and, according to a criminal complaint, there are both audio and video recordings in which the couple discusses the plan to babysit children, drug, and then molest them.

    Prosecutors say the two planned to open a baby-sitting service so they would have access to “many” children, and they discussed using Dramamine to dope the kids with a confidential source they thought would help them secure the kids to sexually exploit them.

    Baslan: “Then, you know, just it knocks them out a little bit.”

    Confidentail Source: “What do you mean?”

    Baslan: “You know, Dramamine, the allergy medicine. It knocks you out, when you’re a kid.”

    Prosecutors say they have audio recordings in which Baslan says Henry is “dying for this,” referring to a plan to have her sexually abuse “an 18-month-old child.”

    Baslan: “She is dying for me to have a baby with her for us to whatever.”

    Confidential Source: “The two of you together, to have your own kid and raise it in a sexual, like upbringing kind of thing?”

    Baslan: “Right.”

    Finally, Henry herself is heard on one tape talking to the men with whom she is allegedly planning the babysitting service, saying “Y’all know I did work in schools. I worked with kids.”

    When asked if she has references, she answers, “Oh, yeah, I have excellent references.”

    At the time of the arrest, authorities say they recovered a backpack that contained a Sony digital camera and a laptop computer.

    The suspects are charged with sexual abuse, and they face 30 years to life in prison if they’re convicted.

  109. yome says:

    $96 grim
    Thanks! The homes around the Country Club are the old timers.Homes are 30 years and older. A few are tear down and built 1.5 million dollar homes.I am surprise with Grove st there are more tear down and they built big houses on that street.

  110. joyce says:

    Holding: The “first sale” doctrine, which allows the owner of a copyrighted work to sell or otherwise dispose of that copy as he wishes, applies to copies of a copyrighted work lawfully made abroad.

    Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons, Inc

    http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/kirtsaeng-v-john-wiley-sons-inc/

    They got one correct!
    If this could be applied to medical reimportation of drugs, Big Pharma would lose their sh*t. It would still be treating the symptom not the disease, but it would help a little.

  111. Armageddon looms, and we’re just dancing and drinking as fast as we can.

    Prepare for the end.

  112. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    My oldest daughter has been harping on about how we should all hug a unicorn. I guess she’s pressing for a visit to the Bergen County Zoo.

  113. Grim says:

    120 – slang for smoking opium

  114. Fabius Maximus says:

    #21 Eddie Ray
    Wow,throwing a technical retainer on the first post. You get your argument blown to sh1t and rather than concede the point, you throw out some obfuscated BS and pull a “I could not possible comment further as that would construed as an engagement of my services and for that I would need a retainer check.”
    Why not take your argument over to those nice people at Cornell Law and tell them they are wrong. I’m sure they will laugh at you as hard as I am laughing at you now.

    You want a retainer check? Here you go. NSFW.
    http://www.someecards.com/usercards/viewcard/979b7171c717a09deb4d642220eedcf4

  115. Fabius Maximus says:

    One thing missing from the Alpine income discussion is that many of the high end will not report Alpine as their primary residence or that the property is even theirs It will belong to an LLC or trust. I’m sure that CC will claim that he works 82 days in the Bronx is on the road for the rest of the season and lives in Florida and is a FL resident in the off season.

  116. Fabius Maximus says:

    Grim
    In mod

  117. Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

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