April Beige Book

From the Fed:

Beige Book – April 17, 2013 Second District–New York

Construction and Real Estate

Residential real estate markets in the District have shown increasingly widespread signs of improvement in recent weeks. New York City apartment rents, which had flattened out in the final months of 2012, have accelerated in early 2013 and are reported to be up 6-7 percent from a year ago in Manhattan and by somewhat more in Brooklyn. With respect to the city’s co-op and condo market, a major appraisal firm reports that sales volume has strengthened, while the inventory of apartments for sale is down sharply to one of the lowest levels on record. Most of the new development is at the upper end of the market, while low inventories across the rest of the spectrum have begun to drive up selling prices across New York City, as well as in Westchester County and Long Island. Multiple offers (bidding wars), though hardly the norm, are becoming more frequent across the region. Prime areas of Brooklyn, where market conditions are particularly strong, are reported to be seeing a good deal of commercial-to-residential conversion. Similarly, an expert on northern New Jersey’s housing market reports continued improvement in market conditions: the volume of distressed properties there has been shrinking, with noticeably fewer homes moving into delinquency or foreclosure recently. Still, prices have moved up only modestly, held back by a slow foreclosure process. Buffalo-area Realtors also report strong market fundamentals–declining inventories and fairly rapid price appreciation.

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71 Responses to April Beige Book

  1. Juice Box says:

    Yawn

  2. Essex says:

    Wake UP!!

  3. I long for the hilarious comic stylings of Kim Jong Il.

  4. Yeah. This festering shit has been kept off the banks’ books (I actually wonder how much of it consists of portfolio loans that are being reported as current) for 4-5 years, and the banks are thrilled to have the borrowers still living in them and maintaining them, even at a low level.

    “Similarly, an expert on northern New Jersey’s housing market reports continued improvement in market conditions: the volume of distressed properties there has been shrinking, with noticeably fewer homes moving into delinquency or foreclosure recently.”

  5. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    good question, ain’t it?

    ” Tonight on @allinwithchris: Why our political system has zero tolerance for terrorism fatalities but is fine with 30,000 gun deaths a year.”

  7. Essex says:

    Bloomberg TV
    For the third time since she took over the company last July, former Google executive and current Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer got on the phone yesterday and reported quarterly financial results.
    There was one big difference between this phone call and the other two, however.

    This time, Yahoo’s results were lousy.

    Mayer reported that during the first three months of this year, Yahoo generated much less revenue than most Wall Street analysts expected.

    Then Yahoo’s CFO, Ken Goldman, got on the line and said something even more dispiriting about Yahoo’s core business.

    He said that during the quarter, Yahoo sold 7% fewer ads than it did during the same period a year ago, and that it charged 2% less for them.

    Worringly, Goldman said the reason Yahoo sold fewer ads was that there was too little “supply.”

    The amount of “supply” in an online advertising business like Yahoo’s is the number of times Yahoo Webpages or Yahoo apps with ads in them are opened.

    Goldman said: “Supply has been the main driver for the decline in number of ads sold, as it follows the overall user engagement trends.”

    In normal-people speak that means: Yahoo sold fewer ads because people are using Yahoo products less, so there are fewer ads to sell.

    The fact is, Yahoo’s core business is eroding quickly.

    People who care about Yahoo’s core business are very alarmed.

    Late last night, we got an email from a former Yahoo executive who still owns a lot of stock. This source was disgusted with the results, and wrote, “Employees have had it and are leaving in droves. There will be no competent folks left by fall.”

    Mayer, said this source, “best get a plan and start ‘earning’ or she will not make the Christmas break.”

    But here’s the thing about Yahoo’s first quarter results, its eroding display advertising business, and even Marissa Mayer’s performance so far at the company:

    In the big picture, none of it matters … not to Yahoo’s biggest shareholders.

    What matters to them is that Yahoo is a major shareholder in two incredibly high-performing Asian Internet companies: Yahoo Japan and Alibaba.

    (These stakes are thanks to brilliant side bets made by Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang years ago.)

    Yahoo’s 24% stake in Alibaba is particularly valuable to Yahoo shareholders.

    Alibaba is a huge Chinese Internet e-commerce company that continues to grow at an insane pace.

    Last summer, Alibaba was worth about $40 billion. Today, Wall Street analysts say it’s worth at least $50 billion — and maybe as much as $75 billion.

    Obviously, investors around the world would love to invest directly in a company that is growing so fast in a market as huge as China.

    But right now, that’s hard to do. Alibaba is a private company.

    That makes owning Yahoo stock the easiest way for an investor to get exposure to Alibaba.

    Betting on Alibaba by buying Yahoo stock even has a built-in payday.

    Yahoo and Alibaba struck a deal last year in which Yahoo promised Alibaba that if it went public before 2015, Alibaba would have the right to buy half of Yahoo’s 24% stake.

    At today’s $50 billion valuation for Alibaba, that would mean an influx of $6 billion for Yahoo. At a $75 billion valuation or higher, Yahoo nets $9 billion or more.

    Yahoo management has given every indication that it will return some of that money to shareholders, probably by acquiring Yahoo shares, raising the price of those remaining on the market.

    So now you know the truth: The reason Yahoo is valuable to its investors has nothing to do with it being a consumer Internet company or its display advertising business.

    It’s a tracking stock for Alibaba.

    This puts Marissa Mayer in a wonderful position.

    The only way Yahoo can return to growth is to invest lots of money in building or buying new, disruptive products and businesses.

    For years, Yahoo management refused to do that. First, it had the chance to acquire Google when it was a fast-growing, but overpriced startup. It passed. Later, it could have bought Facebook at a huge premium. It passed.

    The reason Yahoo passed on both those acquisitions — and failed to invent its own, equally disruptive products — was that it had a successful display advertising business to protect.

    Yahoo CEOs before Mayer knew that someday they were going to have get the company into a new line of business, but they were unwilling to sacrifice the company’s current quarter to do it.

    Well, now shareholders don’t care if Yahoo has a lousy quarter, because they’re not investing in Yahoo for Yahoo’s business anyway. They’re in it for Yahoo’s stake in Alibaba.

    That means Mayer has time to implode Yahoo’s core business and spend a lot of money growing something else in its place.

  8. Yahoo is a piece of shit company. Always has been.

  9. chicagofinance says:

    Scrapple n’Ricin

    Who makes this product? Is it a joint venture between Hormel & Kellogg?

  10. Essex says:

    8. True….but somehow they are ambling along. I always wondered how. Now we know.

  11. chi (9)-

    It’s from the Rice a Roni people.

  12. chicagofinance says:

    clot: here you go…
    Did Cocaine Cause the Financial Crisis?
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100650821

  13. chicagofinance says:

    same analyst from several weeks ago…
    skip forward to minute 1:00;
    focused opinion at 1:50
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000161694

    “and we know that consumers are waiting on the sidelines looking for a better price before they put their home on the market. when that hits at the same time all of these rentals hitting the market and a year from now when there’s a ton of housing available, i see it great for stocks, but not as a housing recovery.”

    “where are the opportunities? what are you telling your investors? multifamily listings. and off market. and also, single family flips. we’re seeing a lot more people purchase in bulk and — the last time you were we were talking about the investors, the funds that are starting investing in single families homes and you’re highlighting the potential of a mass exodus once the time hits to sell. absolutely. i think that’s the case. you still like the space. in the very short-term. three to six months, not new construction. buy to flip or buy to hold and rent out over the long-term. if you can get something 20%, 25% under value in some — between — go beyond the exit? yeah. seven to ten years.”

  14. chi (12)-

    Sorry; I can’t read anything start to finish without snorting some Adder@ll.

  15. anon (the good one) says:

    @AlbertBrooks: Senate rejects gun background checks. Mentally ill people rejoice.

  16. grim says:

    I’d be interested in seeing a poll on how many NRA members support expanded background checks, I’d imagine it would be greater than 50%.

    NRA’s opposition of expanded background checks will only serve to alienate a large portion of it’s membership base, which are likely growing tired of the extreme polarization that seems to be the current MO. I expect that they might tone this down once they see memberships start to fall in the next year. LaPierre seems to have lost his mind completely at this point.

  17. Guns for everyone. It’s the only solution.

  18. Brian says:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

    What do you think is the most important issue facing this country today?

  19. Brian says:

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

    Few in U.S. See Guns, Immigration as Nation’s Top Problems

  20. Brian says:

    Change the question and you can make polls support any argument you want.

  21. Juice Box says:

    Cumon already rlese the photos of the two suspects.
    http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/18/us/boston-blasts/index.html?c=homepage-t

  22. Brian says:

    Something does need to be done about easy access to guns. Any high school kid from NJ can make a road trip to a gun show in a state with less strict gun control laws, roam around the parking lot of the show and buy a gun out of the trunk of somebody’s car no questions asked.

    Sh1t that’s what my friends did in High School.

  23. grim says:

    I don’t know why everyone seems to be focusing on the guy with the shredded clothes that bolts away. Seems very unlikely that the bomber would have remained that close. Frankly, running away after an explosion isn’t at all “suspicious” activity.

  24. grim says:

    24 – I believe Federal Law prohibits taking possession of a handgun in a state in which the purchaser is not a resident. Long guns are another matter entirely, there are no background checks for long guns.

  25. chicagofinance says:

    Scrapple Cannon says:
    April 17, 2013 at 7:18 pm
    I long for the hilarious comic stylings of Kim Jong Il.

    http://weknowmemes.com/2013/04/kim-jong-un-eats-a-snickers/

  26. nwnj says:

    #23

    Why show your hand? That’s the stupidest thing they could do. Keep the bad guys guessing instead of starting a manhunt.

  27. grim says:

    Not sure if this is the same “white cap” suspect, as the clothes don’t appear to match the leaked descriptions (hooded jacket). Does appear to be the same two guys mentioned in the Daily Mail piece though.

  28. chicagofinance says:

    Doctors say looking at busty women for 10 minutes a day is good for your health
    9 Jul 2011 00:00
    Staring at busty women can lengthen your life, scientists have proved.

    A German study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, concludes that staring at women’s breasts for a few minutes daily is better for your health than going to the gym.

    “Just 10 minutes of looking at the charms of well-endowed females is equivalent to a 30-minute aerobics work-out,” said author Dr Karen Weatherby, an expert on ageing.

    The research team, led by Dr Weatherby, spent five years monitoring the effects of this unique discovery.

    The men who were told to stare at bosoms daily had lower blood pressure and slower resting pulse rates and also decreased their risk of coronary artery disease.

    Dr Weatherby explained: “Sexual excitement gets the heart pumping and improves blood circulation.

    “There’s no question – gazing at large breasts makes men healthier.”

    She also recommends that men over 40 should spend at least 10 minutes daily admiring breasts sized D-cup or larger.

  29. JJ says:

    Chifi were you down in Washington on Tuesday for the Bond thing? Saw lots of playa in bond land down in sec-land

  30. Juice Box says:

    Cakeboss has a brand new Maserati conertible out in front of their Jersey City
    Factory. No recession in fondant trainng.

  31. JJ says:

    Recession has been over since 2009 buddy.

    Juice Box says:
    April 18, 2013 at 9:05 am

    Cakeboss has a brand new Maserati conertible out in front of their Jersey City
    Factory. No recession in fondant trainng.

  32. Essex says:

    Hard to believe that there are still people killin’ it financially. 2012 was our best year yet. Too bad we’re stuck in this sh-thole.

  33. Brian says:

    Gun charge brings probation sentence
    Apr 17, 2013 11:10 p.m.
    NEWTON – An Ogdensburg man was sentenced to probation and jail for unlawful possession of a firearm, the prosecutor’s office said.

    William Davenport, 24, was sentenced by Superior Court Judge N. Peter Conforti on April 12 in Newton to three-years probation on condition that he serve 364 days in jail. He also must submit a DNA sample and pay $155 in court fines and $100 motor vehicle fine.

    He pleaded guilty on Jan. 22 to two counts of third-degree unlawful possession of a firearm.

    In 2011 during a motor vehicle stop in Hardyston, the defendant was found to be in possession of two .50 caliber Muzzleloaders.

    Davenport was represented by attorney Steven J. Insley and the state was represented by Assistant Prosecutor Jerome P. Neidhardt.

  34. Juice Box says:

    The indian guy who owns a chain of dunkin donuts in Hoboken pulled up this morning in a brand new high end BMW to check on his flock of illegal undocumented workers who pay no taxes. There was no recession for him.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    Plenty of normal people, but some of the W-2’s, 1099’s & K-1 that floated into my practice made my jaw drop…..and we’re talking 2011 to 2012, not just out-of-the-blue…..

    Essex says:
    April 18, 2013 at 9:32 am
    Hard to believe that there are still people killin’ it financially. 2012 was our best year yet. Too bad we’re stuck in this sh-thole.

  36. chicagofinance says:

    idiot….begging for an audit…..it’s in the How-To manual…..

    Juice Box says:
    April 18, 2013 at 9:46 am
    The indian guy who owns a chain of dunkin donuts in Hoboken pulled up this morning in a brand new high end BMW to check on his flock of illegal undocumented workers who pay no taxes. There was no recession for him.

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Spending/expenses out of whack with reported income…..so much easier to nail people now……JJ the bar right off Bowling Green was sold because they monitored the amount of liquor sold and there was no way that revenue could have been as low as reported….

  38. chicagofinance says:

    Basically NYS said…..you owe us $2M plus penalties….

  39. Brian says:

    Authorities circulate photos of two men spotted carrying bags near site of Boston bombings

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/feds_have_men_in_sights_j43UJwXZncr0wmysU42scJ

  40. JJ says:

    What bar??

    Guy who wanted Mary Jo’s job was just a COO of a small shop and he made 240 million last year. Considering only around 240 work days in a year that means his salary was one million a day in 2012. Nice work if you can get it.

    chicagofinance says:
    April 18, 2013 at 9:53 am

    Spending/expenses out of whack with reported income…..so much easier to nail people now……JJ the bar right off Bowling Green was sold because they monitored the amount of liquor sold and there was no way that revenue could have been as low as reported….

  41. box (35)-

    Depression is what you feel after eating some of the shit cannoli from that Cakeboss disaster.

  42. Dissident HEHEHE says:
  43. HHK says:

    Long time lurker, have posted just a few times.

    I have refinancing question for you all. I have used my mortgage guy for 2 home purchases and have been generally happy (anthony villanova at villanova financial group springfield nj).

    I’m looking to refinance my current home and have come across amerisave on the internet. They are quoting my rates and closing costs that my mortgage guy finds hard to believe that there is not some catch.

    I tend to trust his opinion and will probably not waste my time (and money w/amerisave), but I figured I’d reach out and see if anybody on this board had experience with amerisave or another internet mortgage site that was positive.

    Thanks

  44. JJ says:

    Plain old banks charge this, Fixed Rate 30 Year 3.375% 3.463 %

    Amerisave has low rates but fairly high APRs it is only a little bit cheaper than a plain old bank

  45. JJ says:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Financial market conditions requiring the Federal Reserve to keep rates unusually low may persist for the next five to 10 years, said Narayana Kocherlakota, the president of the Minneapolis Fed Bank on Thursday. This low-rate environment, and Fed policy, in turn, can be expected to “be associated with financial market phenomena that are seen as signifying instability,” such as inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity, Kocherlakota said, in a speech at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. This instability is best addressed through effective supervision and regulation, Kocherlakota said. However, the Fed may have to confront the dilemma of whether to raise rates to reduce the risks of a financial crisis with the certainty that any tightening would lead to lower employment and prices, he said. The Fed is in a better position to address this challenge than it was in 2007,

  46. chicagofinance says:

    Second year in a row that I helped a wait listed high school senior get into their first choice……really nice feeling……and they found out this fast…..I think I figured out the secret sauce……

  47. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    JJ (54):

    QE4EVA & ZIRP – Never going to stop until the zombie apocalypse is upon us.

    Plan accordingly.

  48. JJ says:

    But did you get them a free ride! That is the real secret sauce.

    chicagofinance says:
    April 18, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    Second year in a row that I helped a wait listed high school senior get into their first choice……really nice feeling……and they found out this fast…..I think I figured out the secret sauce……

  49. Libtard in Union says:

    Did she give YOU a free ride! That would have produced the REAL secret sauce. I expect more from you JJ.

  50. raging bull jj says:

    I agree. But my sauce is no secret as plenty of ladies have had a swallow.

    Libtard in Union says:
    April 18, 2013 at 1:50 pm
    Did she give YOU a free ride! That would have produced the REAL secret sauce. I expect more from you JJ.

  51. jj (54)-

    Risk on, bitchez!

    “This low-rate environment, and Fed policy, in turn, can be expected to “be associated with financial market phenomena that are seen as signifying instability,” such as inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity, Kocherlakota said…”

  52. Ottoman says:

    HHK – I’m curious to know if your mortgage guy has access to Google since he can’t figure out how Amerisave is quoting so low. According to this list of about 200 complaints, Amerisave’s MO is to collect extra high appraisal fees, then either string you along and hope you give up or determine you don’t qualify for the sweet rate after they’ve evaluated your finances, or the house doesn’t appraise, and then they push you to a higher interest loan.

    Check the Penfed rate and APR. If your guy is matching or beating that, you’re doing fine.

    http://www.consumeraffairs.com/finance/amerisave_mortgage.html

  53. Happy Renter says:

    “Second year in a row that I helped a wait listed high school senior get into their first choice……really nice feeling……and they found out this fast…..I think I figured out the secret sauce……”

    Também sei o segredo, amigo.

  54. HHK says:

    I see 3.62% for a 30yr Fixed at Yahoo.com finance section. Where do you see regular banks with 3.375%?

  55. raging bull jj says:

    credit unions are showing those rates.

  56. zieba says:

    RE: 63

    Ah! I see what you did there gringo.

  57. AG says:

    From my cold dead hands! Lmao at the libtards whose decision making abilities are based on how it feels. Ban backpacks! Ban fertilizer plants! Ban brown people!

  58. HHK says:

    Any names of credit unions with those rates? I live in Bergen County and I’m not affiliated with any credit unions. A quick search led me to greater alliance FCU which serves bergen and passaic county residents, but their rate was 3.625 so not 3.375. Also penfed rate is 3.625 plus 1% orgination fee for a jumbo refinance (>417k). So where can i find 3.375?

    Also, I read on this blog previously how to join penfed for something a $15 donation. Can somebody refresh my memory on that. I may consider as their non jumbo refinance is 3.125 (plus 1% orig and 0.625 points) and my need is right around the border of jumbo and non jumbo. Thanks

  59. HHK says:

    Never mind re: joining pen fed. Found it right on their website

  60. HHK says:

    Off my original topic, but I’ve seen that their are some health care workers on this blog. Not exactly sure where they work or what type of job (seems one may be a psychologist?) Any thoughts on the re-opening of pasckack valley hospital (affiliated with hackensack UMC and for profit LHP) or the majority stake holder LHP?

  61. From my cold, dead hands indeed.

  62. One small victory against the collectivists who would disarm us.

    They will disarm the population eventually. Hopefully, it won’t be soon.

  63. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Those two kids should thank the NY Post for the lottery ticket they just gave them.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    Have no idea what language you used, but for the record, one was Asian and the other Irish……

    Happy Renter says:
    April 18, 2013 at 2:11 pm
    “Second year in a row that I helped a wait listed high school senior get into their first choice……really nice feeling……and they found out this fast…..I think I figured out the secret sauce……”

    Também sei o segredo, amigo.

  65. joyce says:

    They should have a friend of theirs beat them and up the damages 10-fold

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    April 18, 2013 at 3:59 pm
    Those two kids should thank the NY Post for the lottery ticket they just gave them.

  66. JJ says:

    You should have helped the the Asian to drink beer and the mick how to stay sober.

    Does college even matter anymore

    chicagofinance says:
    April 18, 2013 at 4:13 pm

    Have no idea what language you used, but for the record, one was Asian and the other Irish……

Comments are closed.