Confirmation of a bottom, or is it too soon?

From the WSJ:

Suburban Sales Swell

House prices in the New York City suburbs, after a six-year roller coaster ride in which they lost roughly a quarter of their value, are climbing again.

The strongest rises were in the southwest Connecticut and northern New Jersey, while the recovery is weaker in parts of Long Island, where foreclosures still weigh on home prices.

Buyers who have been waiting have jumped back in, creating bidding wars for many desirable properties, brokers say. The number of new contracts signed is up; some homes are selling in a few days, often with multiple offers.

Market reports show that median home prices hit a bottom in late 2011 or early 2012 in northern New Jersey, New York’s Westchester County and Long Island and Fairfield County in Connecticut.

In the last two quarters, the market has risen out of the doldrums: Prices are up in all four markets from a year earlier. The second quarter also is off to a strong start.

“Across the board, it is on fire,” said Jeffrey G. Otteau, a New Jersey-based appraiser and founder of Otteau Valuation Group. “Buyers today once again feel a sense of urgency. Buyers are now convinced that waiting they will pay more.”

Analysts attribute the bump to improved confidence in the economic recovery, signs of job growth, low home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates. The rental market also is tight and rents are rising, giving people looking for space fewer alternatives.

Mr. Otteau frets that the market is rising so fast that it could be the beginning of a new housing bubble that could burst if interest rates begin rising before robust job creation returns. Increased mortgage rates reduce the purchasing power of buyers and can dampen prices.

“Over the last year we have gone from the question of whether the recovery is real to whether it is moving too quickly,” he said.

Not all properties are flying. Many high-end suburban homes continue to languish. Houses that need work also can be tough sells, brokers say. And brokers remember how home prices and sales surged in 2010, when the federal government offered tax credits to home buyers, then ran out of steam the following year.

Northern New Jersey

Prices rose more than 3% in each of the last two quarters from a year earlier, after tumbling 27% from 2007 to 2012. The recovery began in neighborhoods like Summit, with an easy commute to Manhattan, and then spread more broadly, brokers say.

Last year, Susan Hunter, a vice president at Lois Schneider Realtor in Summit, said buyers were out looking, but “just weren’t making any decisions to buy.”

That has changed. “Now if the home is well-located in great condition, there is a very good chance it will get multiple bids,” she said, citing the improving economy, job security and credit conditions.

On the waterfront in Jersey City, Biyang Sun closed last week on the $568,000 purchase of her first home, a 925-square-foot, one-bedroom condo with a balcony on the 10th floor of 1 Shore Lane overlooking Manhattan,

The morning the apartment came on the market, she went to see it and made an offer close to the asking price. It had the southern exposure she wanted, a parking lot for her car, and was a 20-minute commute to Midtown Manhattan. “I have been looking for this kind of apartment for half a year,” she said.

The building opened during the boom, when prices were much higher. Her broker, Thomas Pichi of Metropolitan& Waterfront Residential Brokerage, said a few years ago, every owner in the building would have had to sell at a loss. Now, listings have dried up and prices are higher.

“The market is being driven by supply and demand,” he said. “As soon as a listing comes on the market it creates a feeding frenzy.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

86 Responses to Confirmation of a bottom, or is it too soon?

  1. grim says:

    Case Shiller due out at 9am

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    “Across the board, it is on fire,” said Jeffrey G. Otteau, a New Jersey-based appraiser and founder of Otteau Valuation Group. “Buyers today once again feel a sense of urgency. Buyers are now convinced that waiting they will pay more.”

    Isn’t this gorgeous? Once a tour guide, always a tour guide. All he needed to say was that it’s “different” here and that they’re not making any more land.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Analysts attribute the bump to improved confidence in the economic recovery, signs of job growth, low home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates.

    So, we can now expect the fence sellers to list their house, right? Right? I said, RIGHT?

  4. anon (the good one) says:

    you really need mental help if you don’t think that this have major implications for a healthy democratic process. oligarchy destroys capitalism.

    @SenSanders: The 6 family members of the Walton family, the owners of Wal-Mart, are worth over $100 billion – that’s more wealth than the bottom 40%.

  5. grim says:

    4 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkCWwpCCisI

    Wealthiest 400 Americans have more than the bottom 60% of Americans (all 200 million of them).

  6. anon (4)-

    How do you propose we strip these people of their wealth?

  7. That is your solution, right?

  8. anon (the good one) says:

    5. @RBReich: True patriotism isn’t cheap. It’s about taking on a fair share of the burdens of keeping America going. Tax cheats aren’t true patriots.

  9. anon (the good one) says:

    let’s hear your solution

    Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    May 28, 2013 at 7:33 am
    anon (4)-

    How do you propose we strip these people of their wealth?

  10. grim says:

    2 – The midtown prime market is insanity, easily rivaling the action seen during the peak of the bubble, the difference (from my perspective anyway) is that it isn’t the same kind of reckless frenzy as last time. Buyers are much more critical of properties, buyers are significantly more qualified. If it sucks, it sits. If it’s a good deal, multiple bids are a given, and in many cases you will have multiple all-cash bids, you read that right, multiple all-cash bids. Being a cash buyer isn’t as lonely as it used to be, you’ve got company, and playing the “cash deal” card doesn’t carry the same weight as before.

    Waiting until the weekend to see a property? You might as well not even be looking. Midweek and midday showings are incredibly commonplace, this simply did not exist last year. You want to “sleep on it” – Sorry, if the property is nice enough, you have about 2 hours to make a decision.

    Multiple bids by the first open house (first weekend) – Check

    “Don’t bother submitting anything but your best and final” – Check

    “Sorry – No more showings today, we’re booked solid from 10am to 6pm” – Check

    How about this one, first day for public showings, less than 24 hours after the first broker’s open, about 1pm – “You can see if your buyers would like to – But we already have multiple cash offers. If they are interested, please make sure you submit an offer before 5pm this afternoon.”

  11. grim says:

    Millburn – Completely uninspiring 3/2.1, 1 car garage, a whopping .14 acre lot. Late 90s Kitchen with Formica countertops, boring appliances, boring bathrooms, etc. Maybe 1700 square feet, maybe 1800. Definitely not 2000.

    How much?

    Take a guess.

  12. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    $895,000

  13. grim says:

    Hmm, guess it was a bargain than, explains why it was gone in under a week, $25k over ask. Closed at $810k.

  14. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    lol, went high figuring you are bringing it to our attention for that reason…obviously worth lmore than my $400k expanded 4/4 ranch in Cedar Grove based on the location of their dirt!!

  15. grim says:

    Westfield – 4/2.1 on the *SOUTH SIDE* goes for $41k more than ask.

    $871k for pink and blue bathrooms, 60s fixtures, and a cheap white thermofoil kitchen.

    Nom – You should have waited a year, you could have done an EASY $50k more.

  16. grim says:

    Millburn – 3/3.1 on Old Hollow Rd. Weird Cape-y, Ranch-y thing.

    Ask $999k
    Sold $1,261,500 ($262,500 over ask)

    Gone in 4 days.

  17. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    Zillow guy on CNBC, price spikes due to low inventory/low rates, bubbles in some areas due to that….

  18. grim says:

    Montclair – 1 full bath, you read that right, 1 full bath. 4/1.2 on Haddon. Master bath? Yeah right, you must be DREAMING, that second half bath is in the BASEMENT.

    Gone in a week, $72k over ask, closed at $771k.

  19. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: Title Post;

    Run, Baby RUN!

  20. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anon [4];

    Sanders is an avowed socialist — that you quote him approvingly is telling. Scrapple is right – his endgame is confisc@tion.

    Besides, the hypocrisy of the left is thick: the “right” kind of rich people (Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Steve Jobs) get a pass because they bleat the party line publicly while amassing the same kind of wealth as those placed on the ‘public enemies’ list.

    Koch brothers == Eeee-vil
    George Soros == Secular Saint

  21. grim says:

    Market was considerably better for buyers in 2011 and 2012. Inventory was better, prices were equal or better, seller expectations were lower, competition was almost nonexistent.

    So, we can now expect the fence sellers to list their house, right? Right? I said, RIGHT?

    They’ll be selling into the best market in 6 years, a market that is starved for inventory. If that inventory comes to market I predict that sales moves even higher as a result.

  22. Brian says:

    Increased tax revenue through pro-growth policies and increased economic activity.

    anon (the good one) says:
    May 28, 2013 at 7:37 am
    let’s hear your solution

    Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    May 28, 2013 at 7:33 am
    anon (4)-

    How do you propose we strip these people of their wealth?

  23. grim says:

    Regarding the market’s ability to absorb new inventory.

    Bergen County – SFH – In the last 7 days – 217 new properties came onto the market, over the same time period (7 days) 225 properties got offers and went into attorney review (~15 of these properties are in both groups).

  24. raging bull jj says:

    While we wait for case shiller, anyone ever use Orthra GroundClear? I have a stupid 50 foot pine tree that drops cones and needles and stuff I wanted gone for years.

    Well Sandy looked like the salt killed 95% of tree. Then we had huge rain the last month which washed away a lot of salt and now tree is turning corner.

    Town said when they come and inspect it in two weeks if it looks dead they will take it down.

    I was thinking of pouring the whole gallon of the groundclear right on tree trunk and around base.

    I looked online and people said pour tons of salt, bind tree, cut roots and pour roundup on, nail copper nails into it, borex, diseal fuel, all that mumbo jumbo.

    Meanwhile if town looks at it in two weeks and it looks like someone took it out they aint cutting it down. So all I got left it pour a gallon of groundclear right on the white pine tree but with only two weeks to go does not look enough.

    Anyone ever pour that Groundclear stuff on anything. It is like $16 bucks a bottle. Guy in store claims it can take down a tree if I pour whole bottle on, but who knows. It is like $3 grand to take down such a huge tree. FEMA should just throw it in the bill.

  25. raging bull jj says:

    Not a true statement. In spring 20011 rather than sell your stocks, muni and corporate bond portfolio to buy a house you held off till Spring 2013 your portfolio rose greatly and you saved two years worth of mortgage payments, upkeep, insurance and property tax. Folks househunting do keep a higher portion of savings in cash, but not all. Plus it limits your ability to max out your 401K, IRAs and 529 the first few years of owning a house. Someone who waited till spring 2013 missed bottom of housing, but when selling their bonds or stock they made a ton and if it allowed them to max out 401K and529 in 2011 and 2012 they are way ahead.

    grim says:
    May 28, 2013 at 8:27 am
    Market was considerably better for buyers in 2011 and 2012. Inventory was better, prices were equal or better, seller expectations were lower, competition was almost nonexistent.

  26. chicagofinance says:

    reposting because of short PM thread…..

    chicagofinance says:
    May 27, 2013 at 8:55 pm
    Believe it or not, it is more likely that the planes are takeoffs from JFK rather than arrivals to EWR…….the line for EWR usually starts just around Sayreville/Woodbridge….

    Juice Box says:
    May 25, 2013 at 10:46 pm
    Only noise at my new place is the planes flying into Newark from the south, will be very quite at night very much unlike Hoboken. I will be out back smoking the occasional cigar enjoying the quiet life listening for the caterwaul.

    chicagofinance says:
    May 27, 2013 at 8:57 pm
    Also, keep a crossbow handy for the occasional deer……or else drop the deductible on your car insurance…..

  27. Brian says:

    24 – pine trees are tough. My uncle, when he bought his house in Seaside Park in the late 70’s, had a great view of barnegat bay and the sunsets from his front porch. There’s only one house between him and the bay. So, his neighbor then plants this pine tree in his front yard, right next to where my uncle’s front porch is. Well, after a few years, all you could see is pine tree. Pi$$ed my uncle off. He asked the guy to to trim it back but the guy pretty much told him to fcuk off and that he should have bought bayside. So my uncle is now at war with this tree. Everytime the drink they pi$$ all over the roots, he’s poured gallon after gallon of ammonia, gasoline, turpentine, etc. all over the roots but the thing still grows strong.

  28. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [15] grim

    Don’t think I didn’t think about that at the time. And now. But I would have needed to make at least that or more just to get a wash on the deal.

    when you consider interest saved, relo assistance window, and the sweet deal I got on this lease, I figure I would have had to get at least 65k more in the spring to break even.

  29. anon (the good one) says:

    20. the issue is not less relevant just because you don’t like the messenger

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    grim [21],

    Market was considerably better for buyers in 2011 and 2012. Inventory was better, prices were equal or better, seller expectations were lower, competition was almost nonexistent.

    We’re all Monday morning quarterbacks… me included. :)

    If that inventory comes to market I predict that sales moves even higher as a result.

    And I just might be one of them! :)

  31. Brian says:

    Wow case shiller up 10.9%

  32. raging bull jj says:

    imazapyr will take down a pine tree. They actually use it to clear roads for logging purposes. It lasts a year. It is very very strong. A quart will take down a 50 foot pine if poured around base of tree. It is also slow acting and leaves no trail. It is a root killer. It slowly works its way down to roots and kills tree, cant smell it and it is clear. Takes weeks so guy wont know. Even weirder it leaves not trace. But if you get caught with it you are in trouble. They sell it on Amazon. The seven seconds he is dumping the quart around tree is all he has to worry about.

    Oh year it causes irreversable blindness if you get it in your eyes, so watch out for that. Pour it on tree trunk, if flumes out so you want it closest to tree. It lasts a year so if guy plants new tree nothing will grow

    Alligare Imazapyr 2 SL is a pre- and post-emergent, non-selective herbicide for control of undesirable vegetation in non-crop areas such as railroads, highway rights-of-way, storage areas, non-irrigation ditchbanks and more.

    Brian says:
    May 28, 2013 at 9:18 am
    24 – pine trees are tough. My uncle, when he bought his house in Seaside Park in the late 70′s, had a great view of barnegat bay and the sunsets from his front porch. There’s only one house between him and the bay. So, his neighbor then plants this pine tree in his front yard, right next to where my uncle’s front porch is. Well, after a few years, all you could see is pine tree. Pi$$ed my uncle off. He asked the guy to to trim it back but the guy pretty much told him to fcuk off and that he should have bought bayside. So my uncle is now at war with this tree. Everytime the drink they pi$$ all over the roots, he’s poured gallon after gallon of ammonia, gasoline, turpentine, etc. all over the roots but the thing still grows strong.

  33. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Boom Is Back: US Home Prices Jump Most in Seven Years

    U.S. single-family home prices rose in March, racking up their best annual gain in nearly seven years as the housing recovery continues to provide a source of strength for the economy, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 1.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, topping economists’ forecasts for 1 percent.

    Prices in the 20 cities jumped 10.9 percent year over year, beating expectations for 10.2 percent and the biggest increase since April 2006.

    All 20 cities covered by the index saw yearly gains for the third month in a row. Average prices in March were back at their late-2003 levels.

  34. raging bull jj says:

    I predict 2014 will see a huge run up in RE prices in the Sandy Damaged areas. They wont get that huge flood insurance hike passed, everyone is grieving taxes and fiippers who are buying damaged homes left and right will have them all back on the market Spring 2014.

    Non flood areas will overprice themselves and RE taxes are rising. Folks now are paying a prem not to live near the water. Historically folks pay a prem to live near the water.

    like folks in 2013 have forgot the 2008 real estate crash folks will forget Sandy.

    My taxes are now half the taxes of the same house less than two miles from me inland.

  35. grim says:

    S&P Case Shiller – NY Metro March Home Prices by Tier

    Low Tier (Under $256247) – Up 4.7% YOY
    Mid Tier ($256247 – $420580) – Up 3.2% YOY
    High Tier (Over $420580) – Up 2.5% YOY
    Aggregate (Overall Market) – Up 2.6% YOY

  36. Brian says:

    Homebuilding accelerates in NJ
    Monday, May 27, 2013 Last updated: Monday May 27, 2013, 10:27 AM
    BY KATHLEEN LYNN
    STAFF WRITER
    The Record

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/209033371_Homebuilding_accelerates_in_NJ.html?page=all

    Home building in New Jersey is accelerating this year, as the state continues its slow recovery from the worst housing bust since World War II.

    MITSU YASUKAWA/STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
    Buy or license this photo
    Construction in February at a Hovnanian development in Clifton and Woodland Park. Multifamily housing is seen as a driving force in the state’s building recovery. According to the latest census figures, construction permits for 6,215 units were issued in the state through April, up from 4,864 in the same period in 2012. Of those, more than half were in multifamily buildings.

    “Multifamily construction continues to drive New Jersey’s home building recovery,” said Patrick J. O’Keefe, an economist with CohnReznick, a New York-based accounting firm with an office in Roseland.

    Market gains momentum
    Permits for home construction statewide:

    •2008: 18,369
    •2009: 12,396
    •2010: 13,540
    •2011: 13,079
    •2012: 17,988
    •2013: 6,215*
    *Through AprilSource: U.S. Census Bureau
    Apartments are in high demand because tighter mortgage standards and a sluggish employment market have made it tougher for many people to buy homes. In addition, many young people prefer the flexibility of renting as they work to establish their careers in an uncertain labor market.

    Lenders also are more willing to finance rentals than other types of housing, builders say. As a result of all these factors, many multifamily projects that were originally conceived as condos have been converted to rentals over the past several years.

    David Fisher, a vice president of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. of Red Bank, the state’s largest home builder, said that buying activity has also risen this year because of the improving economy. Low mortgage rates, he said, have led many potential buyers to decide “this is the time.”

    “We feel good about the market again in New Jersey,” said Fisher, who is an officer of the New Jersey Builders Association. Hovnanian has several North Jersey communities under construction, including 55-and-up developments in Woodland Park, Montvale and North Caldwell, and a high-rise in Jersey City. It has delayed construction on two properties along the Hudson River waterfront in West New York since the housing bubble burst, but Fisher said that as the market improves, the company may move forward on those next year.

    National home building permits are running about 29 percent ahead of last year’s pace, though both national and statewide home building activity remains below long-term averages. And O’Keefe pointed out that the state’s real estate market continues to face challenges, including stagnant home values and a backlog of distressed properties headed for foreclosure.

    O’Keefe predicts that builders will start about 22,000 units in the state this year — a big increase from last year’s 18,000 units, and the 13,000 annual average seen from 2009 to 2011, the lowest annual totals since World War II.

    With the real estate market reviving, home builder stocks have been on the rise. The Standard & Poor’s home builder index has risen about 50 percent over the past year.

    And Hovnanian has said that it expects to return to profitability this year, after years of annual losses. Hovnanian is scheduled to report its second-quarter financial results June 5.

    Email: lynn@northjersey.com

  37. grim says:

    Based on the S&P Case Shiller Tiered – The “Bottom” for NY Metro home prices was February/March/April of 2012.

  38. XMYhGjTo says:

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  39. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [32];

    Pine trees have notoriously shallow root systems. I saw a neighbor try to stand one of his back up after Sandy, and even with rope bracing it came down again (he’s since stood it up again – triumph of hope over experience).

    I only mention it because Brian’s uncle may want to consider the wisdom of a dead-root pine tree next to his porch.

    BTW, the uncle’s neighbor may in fact be a prick, but the moral of the story is don’t fall in love with the view unless you own it.

  40. All Hype - Mr. Oil, Mr. Gas, Mr. Coal says:

    Wow case shiller up 10.9%

    85 billion per month in freshly printed money. That is the only thing that matters.

    They will never stop printing!

  41. Libtard in Union says:

    Damn,

    Was a year early.

    The “Bottom” for NY Metro home prices was February/March/April of 2012.

  42. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anon [29];

    Not an ad hominem in the least; just pointing out the known bias of your source.

    Why is ‘wealth inequality’ even a problem? If you presume (as I do) that a person’s earnings are related to their efforts, then the only way to ensure equality of outcomes is to guarantee equality of inputs — you have to make all people exactly alike in all ways (like ability, motivation, expended efforts). This utopian fantasy has led the left to embrace — to varying degrees — socialism, communism, fascism, eugenics in their efforts to push back the tide of reality that all people are not, in fact, equal in every way.

    I’m happy to accept the reality that this utopian fantasy of perfect equality of inputs and outcomes just is not true. Care to join the “Reality-Based Community”?

  43. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [41];

    Like uncle Warren, better too soon than too late. I was in contract by April 2012; didn’t close until July. Does that count?

  44. Anon E. Moose says:

    Hype [40];

    They will never stop printing!

    Why I chose land over cash.

  45. chicagofinance says:

    “So many people say, ‘You know, your taxes aren’t taken by force,’ and that’s foolish. If you don’t pay your taxes and you don’t answer the warrant and you don’t go to court, eventually someone will pull a gun. Eventually someone with a gun will show up.” — Penn Jillette

  46. Libtard in Union says:

    “Why is ‘wealth inequality’ even a problem? If you presume (as I do) that a person’s earnings are related to their efforts,”

    Really? Tax loopholes and shelters have nothing to do with this inequality? You have no issue with the fact that probably 99% of the 1% pays LESS percentage-wise in taxes than the other 99.9%? I have no issue with letting the ultra rich keep most of what they earn, but close the tax advantages already.

  47. JJ says:

    Interesting but a few weeks ago Chris Christie defined Poor in NJ. His Sandy Home Repair and Rebuilding fund for Sandy folks whose house got wrecked is only open for lower income folks. High income folks get nothing.

    Lower income folks who make $250,000 AGI or less qualify. We used to joke on this site you needed to make a minimum of $250.000 AGI or more just to survive in NJ.

    But seriously Christie is a bit of a prick picking a random number as a cut off. So someone with $250,001 gets nothing and someone with $249.999 gets a free rebuild. AGI is tough to change it is what it is. Most deductions are based on AGI so deductions dont move AGI.

  48. Libtard in Union says:

    Fix the tax loopholes and you can give everyone the same ‘free’ rebuild.

  49. JJ says:

    The tax issue is the folks who make between 300K and one million pay the majority of of the taxes. Folks are rich enough deductions are all phased out and are in AMT but not rich enough to set up proper shelters to avoid taxes.

    Homeowners with four kids a stay at home wife and a big mortgage on a 100K salary and a rich man making 10 million are skipping out on taxes and sticking the poor guy making 750K with the tax bill.

    Libtard in Union says:
    May 28, 2013 at 10:49 am

    Fix the tax loopholes and you can give everyone the same ‘free’ rebuild.

  50. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [46];

    Well, lets begin with the constitutional understanding at the beginning of the country — excise taxes on imports (consumption-based taxes), and any direct tax was apportioned — One man, one vote? One man, one tax dollar, too. I actually would like to explore a corporate model: one share (one tax dollar) == one vote.

    But comparing overall tax rate doesn’t tell the whole tale because 15% of ALOT is more than 18% of a pittance. JJ has it right, the wealthy who you say are getting away with loopholes are still carrying the heaviest tax burden.

    And what about transfers? Are those captured in the equation? NPR just re-published a podcast about a Woman in the Bronx earning $16k a year, getting housing subsidy, medicare, food stamps (oddly, she’s proud to have never taken welfare (?!?)). She took her kid back home to the Caribbean island where she’s originally from, and also took her kid for a resort vacation in the Caribbean recently, too (it sounded like it was a time-share sales pitch deal, but anyway, she went).

    http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/05/24/186477854/episode-217-the-art-of-living-at-the-poverty-line

    So the compromise seems to be — True Flat Tax, no loopholes, and much less generous handouts. Fat chance, but a guy can dream, can’t he?

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [29] anon,

    I’m not seeing the attack line there. Perhaps you’re projecting.

    I’ve not weighed in because I debate this all the time. I also don’t believe their is a “right” or “wrong” answer in terms of philosophy, but externalities can make one position less desirable than another. For example, the utopian view is invariably socialist; it is also unattainable and not preferred in an asymmetric world. To the philosopher, that’s a head scratcher, but to the economist, it’s logical.

    Discuss!

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [20] moose,

    Even more fun, compare how Kochs and Soros made their fortunes.

    Koch: old fashioned industry– manufacturing and extraction. Labor intensive, throws off cash for employees, shareholders, taxes. Significant multiplier effect.

    Soros: betting against US Dollar. Employs few, pays few, income subject to less taxation. No multiplier effect.

  53. Ragnar says:

    Lib, I think you are factually wrong, and I think you’ve beeng fooled by Warren Buffet and the media on this one.
    ” the fact that probably 99% of the 1% pays LESS percentage-wise in taxes than the other 99.9%? ”
    Here’s the first analysis I could find on google, which indicates that the top 1% does in fact pay the highest percentage of their income in taxes, and twice the national average
    http://taxfoundation.org/blog/tax-rate-paid-top-1-double-national-average
    This group seems relatively objective, but am open to counter-evidence. If it holds up, I think you’re honest enough to change your mind as well.

    “The average federal tax rate for all taxpayers rose slightly in 2010 to 11.81 percent, up from 11.06 percent the previous year. The tax rate paid by individuals with incomes in the top 1 percent averaged 23.39 percent, while all filers in the bottom 50 percent paid an average tax rate of 2.37 percent, according to our newest analysis on the distribution of federal income taxes.”

    I don’t have a source of data for this, but beyond being wrong on the average, I suspect that the vast majority of the top 1% pay higher percentage tax rates than the 99%. I suspect 10% or less of the top 1% pay Warren Buffet style low rate taxes, and that’s what brings the average of this group down to 20-something percent from over 30 percent. I suspect many of them are transitory (people not normally in the top 1%, but who in one year sell their business, sell a big chunk of stock or property for cap gains). They don’t sell their business or stock options etc every year. I think there’s an overestimation of how many super-rich people there are living off passive income, or capital gains. I think there’s also an underestimation of how low the tax rates have become on the bottom 50%, which look stunningly low in this report.

    I’ve been in the top 1% the last few years and I’m paying a very high percentage of my income in taxes. So I’m sick of hearing this particular distortion about the top 1% paying low taxes (as well as the conflation of “low taxes” and “low tax rates”.)

  54. JJ says:

    While national home prices are still 20% below peak, home prices in Texas are at new highs, thanks to a good jobs market.

    NEW YORK (TheStreet (Symbol : TST)) — Home prices are rising at a scorching pace in Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco, but the real housing recovery story is in Texas.

    National home prices are still about 20% below their June 2006 peak, but in Texas home prices are now at a new peak, according to data from Lender Processing Services Home prices in Texas inched up 0.7% in March over the previous month and are up 4.7% year-over-year. Those are mild gains compared to the average gains reported by other states in the U.S.

    The LPS Home Price Index (HPI) rose 1.4% in March over the previous month and was up 7.6% on a year-over-year basis. The LPS index, unlike other indices, excludes the impact of foreclosures and short sales.

  55. Ragnar says:

    Comrade,
    Utopia is predominantly but not invariably socialist. See the chapter in Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged titled “The Utopia of Greed.” But don’t look it up if you haven’t already read the novel, as it would reveal a big plot spoiler.

  56. JJ says:

    Ayn Rand reads my books, I dont read hers

  57. Libtard in Union says:

    Ragner,

    I think the numbers are skewed purposely depending on which magazine the article shows up in. Every time a major politician reports his income and tax rate, it seems to come in between 15 and 20%. Unless they are real shysters, like Corzine, where he paid nothing a couple of times. I suppose my real issue is the income gap and how the spoils of successful businesses are not necessarily (it doesn’t have to be through taxation) shared. But I know there comes a point where tax shelters are willfully employed that the under 500K per year crowd can’t afford to be a member of the club.

  58. merp says:

    Grim,
    Can you help me figure out the status of this property? This link says the auction date passed and it wasn’t auctioned… meaning nobody was interested? How can I find out what’s going on? I stopped by to check it out and the grass is about 3ft high. :) Seems to be in a good location, about a block out of Wyckoff and over half an acre.

    http://www.bergenjerseyforeclosures.com/bjf/PropertyDetail?id=13285

  59. Wicked Orange - March 2012 buyer says:

    I have nothing to add, just wanted to boast.

  60. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    10 year at 2.13%

  61. Libtard in Union says:

    “10 year at 2.13%”

    Which is incredible as I locked my two mortgage refinances when ^tnx opened at 1.63 on May 3rd. Though, there seems to be a greater disconnect between the ten-year and mortgage rates than ever before. When the ten-year briefly hit 1.39 last August, the 15-year and 30-year mortgage interest rates were higher than when the ten-year hit the 1.63 earlier this month. So although I nailed the recent bottom in the ten-year treasury, there’s still a good chance mortgage rates could dip once again. Unless of course, helicopter Ben stops the presses.

    http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/default.aspx?cat=2&ids=10,1&state=zz&d=1825&t=MSLine&eco=22

  62. Bystander says:

    Paying more in taxes, more in food costs, more in commuting costs, more in gas costs yet my former IB has been shedding like a cheap wool sweater. My 6 mo. contract may end soon and no FT jobs on horizon…but housing and stocks on fire.Guess I must be all alone in NY metro area. Could have sworn I saw hundreds around me in similiar positions but they must be riding the Millburn/Westfield/Greenwich wave to riches. It is almost like the already wealthy were never impacted by the recession. Like a strange force has been protecting them..a force I have not felt since..

  63. JJ says:

    You must be a Troll. Everyone in Jersey makes seven figures and craps gold bricks out their ass, don’t start no trouble.

    Bystander says:
    May 28, 2013 at 1:33 pm

    Paying more in taxes, more in food costs, more in commuting costs, more in gas costs yet my former IB has been shedding like a cheap wool sweater. My 6 mo. contract may end soon and no FT jobs on horizon…but housing and stocks on fire.Guess I must be all alone in NY metro area. Could have sworn I saw hundreds around me in similiar positions but they must be riding the Millburn/Westfield/Greenwich wave to riches. It is almost like the already wealthy were never impacted by the recession. Like a strange force has been protecting them..a force I have not felt since..

  64. Brian says:

    62 – get your real estate license.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Foreign money & trust-fund babies pushing up prices in NYC…..successful but not overly rich NYC worker takes inflated NYC real estate capital gains and dumps it into NJ house down payment. To be clear, overall effect here is being driven by passive money, not wages…..including NJ price spikes on Midtown Direct.

    Bystander says:

    May 28, 2013 at 1:33 pm

    Paying more in taxes, more in food costs, more in commuting costs, more in gas costs yet my former IB has been shedding like a cheap wool sweater. My 6 mo. contract may end soon and no FT jobs on horizon…but housing and stocks on fire.Guess I must be all alone in NY metro area. Could have sworn I saw hundreds around me in similiar positions but they must be riding the Millburn/Westfield/Greenwich wave to riches. It is almost like the already wealthy were never impacted by the recession. Like a strange force has been protecting them..a force I have not felt since..

  66. Richard says:

    10y up 14bps today, 40bps from a month ago

    I’m wondering if 30y mortgages go up to 4% again this uptick in real estate interest will dampen down, or if people will rush in faster to get a cheap mortgage while they’re still around.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

  67. Richard says:

    uh, I just checked mortgage rates again and 4% is normal, make that 5% :)

  68. daddyo says:

    Westfield – 4/2.1 on the *SOUTH SIDE* goes for $41k more than ask.
    ———
    Makes me feel better about my impending closing…and glad it wasn’t me with the 41k more than ask bid!

  69. reinvestor101 says:

    Yeah, I haven’t been here in a long damn time. I’m too damn busy making me some damn money flipping. Happy days are here again. I told you socialist commie real estate terrorists that they weren’t making any more damn real estate and that the days of flipping would come back. Did you believe me? Nooo, many of you waited on the damn sidelines bunched together like some damn chicken littles. No, the sky didn’t fall dammit. The damn market is hot as all hell and I’m sure as hell gonna make up for lost time.

    And another damn thing, who cares about 400 people having more that 60% of the rest of the damn people? To even bring that up smacks of damn socialism. Hell, those 400 people inspire me and I want to be among their damn ranks rather than be part of the stinking 60%. If I flip enough houses, I’ll damn sure get there or die trying.

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    I believe I said this was just a matter of time.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100769656

    They are turning over every rock, and that’s not a good sign.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    “If you like your health plan, keep it.”

    Or not. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768749

  72. HouseWhineWine says:

    71. Well, that sure is disappointing. Sigh, I knew it was too good to last. We love using vrbo. The powers that be will never let us little people alone, will they?

  73. Bystander says:

    #64,

    You buying, Brian? Your final and best offer must be in 2 hrs. after viewing my listing. Also, it must be 41k more than ask otherwise I will sell it to the trust fund babies and Chinese investors lining up on the turnpike now. They are all headed to my house. Hurry!

  74. grim says:

    Ticked I didn’t get to refi lower, but I can’t be too upset about having a 3.9%.

    I could have jumped into a lower rate, but I needed around a 3.4% for it to make sense financially, even then the payback would have been longer than I’d like.

    Toyed around with refinancing into a 15 year, but I’d be dumping in around a $100k for it to make sense, and at that point, I basically lose my inflation hedge.

  75. grim says:

    From Mortgage News Daily:

    MBS SPECIAL ALERT: Melt-Down Continues. Rate Sheets Destroyed

    Although we don’t typically publish “alerts” to the MBS Commentary channel (because of MBS Live), today feels like a good day to break those rules considering the sheer level of destruction we’re witnessing. The day itself isn’t on the scale of ‘Black Wednesday’ in May 2009, but the month of May 2013 has been far worse, and is now, in fact, the steepest month of losses for current coupon MBS that we have on record since 2008.

  76. Juice Box says:

    New place is about 80% setup. Lots of elbow grease over the last few days. As the marines say asshoels and elbows. Going to finished painting my oldest sons room tomorrow and the kids start their new school as well. Landscaper is only $35 to cut the grass this week. I am not lazy but I have Zero experience with pools so I will give the pool guy $55 a week to come by and make sure we aren’t killing ourselves.

  77. Libtard at home says:

    “Ticked I didn’t get to refi lower, but I can’t be too upset about having a 3.9%.”

    I was pretty ticked when I missed last August. I couldn’t believe the refi rates dropped more than the ten year. I always thought they were more in parity.

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    [73] house,

    I knew it was just a matter of time. We used VRBO to book places in France and they were eager for cash. I saw it as a vast untapped resource for the Feds but the states and cities are getting into the act, spurred on by the competition, something I should Also have seen.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume, Halfwit dumbass says:

    The Weiner is rising in NY, and this time it has nothing to do with JJ.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/28/weiner-reacts-to-surprising-poll-numbers/?hpt=hp_bn3

  80. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [71];

    From the link:

    “When visitors come to San Francisco, they incur significant costs for police, fire, health, street cleaning, and transit,” said David Chiu, president of the city’s board of supervisors. “Just as we ask our hotels to pay the hotel tax to pay for these city expenses, I think it’s appropriate to ask Airbnb hosts to do the same.”

    I thought residents paid property taxes to cover that stuff? Like you said, turning over every rock.

    Then again, to some government exists to protect entrenched interests (like hotels) from competition. It’s ugly, and for the right part of the political spectrum what I usually call the “Chamber of Commerce” wing of the Republican party (same chaps pulling for expanded slave.. um, guest worker visas).

  81. anon (9)-

    My solution would start with your execution. Accumulating wealth by legitimate means is not a crime. Trying to confiscate wealth in the name of “fairness” is no more than legalized theft.

  82. Orange (59)-

    You shouldn’t boast…your laxers got blown off the field yesterday by a very average Dook team.

  83. Boy, it’s feeling more and more 2007ish by the minute.

  84. Somebody shoot me over a blank mortgage app to sign.

  85. Confirmation of a bottom, or is it too soon? | New Jersey Real Estate Report ルイヴィトン財布 http://www.f-2d.com/ ルイヴィトン財布

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