June home prices up 12% YOY – Much smaller locally

From Forbes:

Home Price Growth Beginning To Slow Down, Says S&P/Case-Shiller

Home prices continued their upward march in June, if at a slightly slower pace.

U.S single-family home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% in June from a month earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, after rising 1% in May.

The gain puts home prices 12.1% higher than they were a year ago, as all 20 metro areas welcomed price increases on both a monthly and annual basis, led by Las Vegas (24.9%) and San Francisco (24.5%). S&P/ Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index also posted a 7.1% increase in the second quarter and a 10.1% increase over the past four quarters.

Yet the biggest takeaway from the new report is the fact that the pace of home price growth is showing signs of slowing down, as rising mortgage rates begin to weigh on home sales. Thirteen of the 20 cities saw their returns weaken on a monthly basis.

“Overall, the report shows that housing prices are rising but the pace may be slowing,” says David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “As we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, we should expect to see the most gains. With interest rates rising to almost 4.6%, home buyers may be discouraged and sharp increases may be dampened.”

“I think there is a risk of a softening housing market,” warned Robert Shiller, Yale economics professor and co-creator of the Case-Shiller home price indexes, on CNBC Tuesday morning. He noted that housing has been a “speculative market” thanks to the prevalence of real estate investors that include Wall Street institutions and house flippers. Last week he warned that rising rates will hurt home prices as the increasing cost of borrowing cuts into buyer demand.

Still, news that the home price surge may be slowing isn’t necessarily unwelcome. Economists like the National Association of Realtors’ Lawrence Yun have warned that prices have been rising “too fast” and at these double-digit rates of appreciation are “unsustainable”.

Economists and real estate experts don’t expect rising rates — or any other factor of “stabilization” — to derail the housing recovery. Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko notes that home prices are still low relative to rents in every major city across the country: a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate of 4.5% with 20% down means it is still more than a third cheaper to buy a home than rent one on average nationally. “Not every market will remain cheaper to buy but on average across the U.S., buying will stay cheaper than renting until rates reach 10.5% — a level we haven’t seen since 1990,” Kolko recently explained in an interview with FORBES.

He says the first market that will tip in favor of renting is San Jose, Calif., when rates hit 5.2%. Behind that San Francisco, New York, and Honolulu will follow, at just under 6%.

CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming has also crunched affordability numbers. Nationally, at the current rate of price growth versus median income growth, mortgage rates would have to hit 6.5% before housing becomes less affordable than economic fundamentals could support.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

78 Responses to June home prices up 12% YOY – Much smaller locally

  1. grim says:

    S&P Case Shiller – NY Commuter – June 2013

    Low Tier (Under $265670)
    Year over Year – Up 6.3%
    From Trough – Up 10.6%

    Mid Tier ($265670 – $435721)
    Year over Year – Up 4.4%
    From Trough – Up 6.8%

    High Tier (Over $435721)
    Year over Year – Up 2.7%
    From Trough – Up 6.7%

    Overall Market
    Year over Year – Up 3.3%
    From Trough – Up 7.1%

  2. It’s all going to hell. Watch the plunge when oil hits $130 and the 10y goes haywire.

  3. grim says:

    Little something for the lawyers, from Law360:

    NJ, Pa. Counties Take Fannie, Freddie Tax Fight To 3rd Circ.

    Several Pennsylvania and New Jersey counties urged the Third Circuit Friday to reverse district court orders that tossed three proposed class actions alleging Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed to pay transfer taxes on foreclosures, saying the mortgage giants aren’t exempt from all taxation.

    In a consolidated appeal, the counties say the government-backed companies aren’t entitled to the federal government’s immunity from state and local taxation because they essentially are private, for-profit for corporations. And even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have exemptions in their charters that free them from state, county and municipal taxes, that exemption only applies to direct taxes, not indirect taxes like the transfer taxes, the counties charge.

    “Significantly, the [U.S. Supreme Court has explained that an exemption from ‘all taxation’ has a technical, ‘understood meaning’ that does not provide an exemption from indirect taxes such as the transfer fees,” the counties said in a brief to the Third Circuit. “The Supreme Court’s steadfast adherence to this construction for almost a century belies appellees’ arguments to the contrary.”

    The consolidated appeal was brought by New Jersey’s Cape May County, Pennsylvania’s Delaware and Chester counties and Evie Rafalko McNulty, the recorder of deeds in Pennsylvania’s Lackawanna County.

    The Cape May lawsuit explained that New Jersey requires that grantor in a real estate transaction to pay various taxes and fees associated with the sale of a property to the recording officer in the appropriate county. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have served as the grantor for many real estate transactions in New Jersey and elsewhere, but have refused to pay the transfer fees, the suit said.

    The county charged that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have evaded a substantial amount of unpaid taxes, given the steep number of New Jersey residences that were foreclosed on in the housing crisis.

  4. grim says:

    Watch the plunge when oil hits $130 and the 10y goes haywire.

    Risk-off correlation. 10y yields are already down 20bps off the peak. Should Syria escalate, the geopolitical risk game is back on hard, and the same fear that will push gold up, will push the 10 year yield down. Oil? Well, she’s just the speculation play in the mix.

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume, packing boxes says:

    [3] grim,

    Thanks. Will make for good reading.

  6. grim says:

    Dude in Passaic wins Powerball, takes home $338 million, leaves Passaic…

    Buys a ranch in Clifton.

  7. The 10y is toast, because the biggest foreign holders are selling, selling, selling.

    Combine that with any kind of “taper” (not that I think they ever will taper), and things will get very disorderly.

  8. Any way you look at it, a little war takes a lot of pressure off of Lew and Bernank.

    Not to say that we promulgate worldwide freedom and the Amerikan Way so that a select few can make a buck…

  9. The solution to our present madness remains the same: burn the mf’er down and start over.

  10. Nomad says:

    Grim,

    How is the EV these days? Any significant difference in range in the uber hot weather vs the more temperate stuff we have been having lately? Is there a break in period and has the range improved as you have driven the vehicle more – am thinking bearings wearing in and reduced resistance.

    BTW – do you have a fob and just flip a switch to make it go?

  11. grim says:

    Good – It’s really just become another car (I think that’s good for the overall adoption). Plugging and unplugging when we’re in and out is almost automatic.

    I installed the big Level 2 charger in my garage, which means 3 hours for a full charge, partial charges faster. We routinely drive more than the battery range on a given day, just due to mid-day charges. Still haven’t used a charging station, didn’t need to. Can easily do close to 200 miles a day, the only problem is not in one shot – we don’t dare try to make it down to LBI, don’t even know where we’d stop mid-way (it is 114 miles door to door – Wayne to Beach Haven).

    I think the “book” range is 89 or 92 miles or something. If we really baby the car on eco mode and don’t floor it, we can get the range indicator closer to 100 on the first start of the day. We’ve driven more than 100 miles on a single charge, despite the “book” range. The non-intuitive part of range on these things is that they are the opposite of gas cars. Doing 75 for long stretches on the highway isn’t going to max your range. We did more than 100 with tons of stop and go traffic, slow crawls, etc. The thing to keep in mind is when you are stopped and coasting slow, it’s not using power, unlike a gas car that is always idling. …and you aren’t fighting aerodynamics. I’d imagine peak efficiency is probably somewhere around 25-30 miles an hour – good for city/suburb – but not ideal for highway.

    I don’t know about break in, potentially, although I have the first service coming up soon, no idea what they do (check the coolant levels probably).

    While it has a fob, it doesn’t have push to start, you actually need to turn the key in the ignition. Weird, I know.

    The cool thing about the FOB is that I can remotely control the climate control while still plugged in to the L2 charger. What this means is I can cool down/heat up the car before I even step foot into the garage, and I don’t waste capacity on blasting the HVAC.

    I haven’t noticed much range variation – but I will say that the range indicator is “learning”, so if you put the thing in sport mode and tear around for 50 miles, on the next charge the indicated range will be way down, even though it really isn’t.

    By the way, the torque in sport mode is silly, I can light up the tires really easy, almost too easy, which is a bit surprising (probably has just as much to do with the low rolling resistance tires too).

  12. raging bull jj says:

    That smaller percentage increase in home prices in NJ/LI is a little misleading.

    Places like Vegas with the eyepopping 24% increase vs 6% in Long Island makes it seem LI is really lagging.

    Till you realize a 100K house going to 124K in Vegas vs a one million dollr home rising to 1.06 million you realize the 6% year over year increase in richer neighbor hoods in Bergan County and the North Shore of Manhasset is a huge dollar increase. It is 24k vs 60K.

  13. charlie says:

    Thanks for explaining percentages. Could you go over logarithms next?

  14. JJ says:

    My log always has rhythm

    charlie says:
    August 28, 2013 at 8:42 am

    Thanks for explaining percentages. Could you go over logarithms next?

  15. charlie says:

    Excellent!

  16. grim says:

    Other factor is that home prices didn’t fall as much in the Northeast as they did in the Southwest.

    If the NE saw the same price increases as the SW, we’d be long past recovery, we’d be setting new peaks in pricing.

  17. Nomad says:

    Thanks for the insights on the EV Grim.

    The folks over at Tesla have licensed their platform to Toyota for the electric RAV 4.
    Will be interesting to see if Tesla does more of that. By the end of next year, their rapid charge stations which juice up the vehicle in like 30 minutes will be readily available around the country.

  18. Brian says:

    Saw a news report where they plan to build stations that just swap the drained battery with a fully charged one. This would eliminate the worry of waiting for long periods of time for a battery to charge.

    17.Nomad says:
    August 28, 2013 at 9:08 am
    Thanks for the insights on the EV Grim.

    The folks over at Tesla have licensed their platform to Toyota for the electric RAV 4.
    Will be interesting to see if Tesla does more of that. By the end of next year, their rapid charge stations which juice up the vehicle in like 30 minutes will be readily available around the country.

  19. Brian says:

    At this point I personally don’t care if prices are higher lower or whatever. If I were a young married couple or a young family looking for a house I’d be pissed if home prices took off. I say let prices drop like a rock so housing is more affordable. They maybe we wouldn’t need so much of this state mandated affordable housing.

    June home prices up 12% YOY – Much smaller locally

  20. Nomad says:

    Brian, Elon Musk did a demo on stage where he swapped batteries of two separate cars in less time than it took to fill the tank of one car.

    Here is the link that shows where the Tesla supercharger stations will be installed over the next year or two.

    http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

  21. JJ says:

    People are weird about home prices. Talking to a neighbor who has a POS cape that she never plans on selling, they dont have a nickle in the bank. Then she is like Sandy may make home prices fall and she is concerned.

    I am like isn’t that a good thing? You are never selling anyway so you can just keep greiving taxes so maybe your property tax keeps falling. She was like that impacts my wealth and I am thinking what wealth. If my house is worth one dollar or one million what difference does it make?

    My dream is to buy a huge mansion one day but they cost 10x the price of my house. But think about it if my home fell in value to one dollar I could buy a huge mansion for ten dollars!!! and with a ten dollar assessment I would pay like 50 cents in property taxes!!!

    Brian says:
    August 28, 2013 at 9:19 am

    At this point I personally don’t care if prices are higher lower or whatever. If I were a young married couple or a young family looking for a house I’d be pissed if home prices took off. I say let prices drop like a rock so housing is more affordable. They maybe we wouldn’t need so much of this state mandated affordable housing.

    June home prices up 12% YOY – Much smaller locally

  22. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ says:
    August 28, 2013 at 8:48 am

    My log always has rhythm

    charlie says:
    August 28, 2013 at 8:42 am

    Thanks for explaining percentages. Could you go over logarithms next?

    JJ is BACK! Vacation did you good, fine sir. That’s post of the day right there. Might as well take the rest of the day off.

    “You’ve stumped our panel; I’m going to flip all the cards…”

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    I think the Chinese bots came out cuz JJ wasn’t around. Now that he’s back, his virile manliness will keep them at bay.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming has also crunched affordability numbers. Nationally, at the current rate of price growth versus median income growth, mortgage rates would have to hit 6.5% before housing becomes less affordable than economic fundamentals could support.

    For the millionth time, it doesn’t apply here. When you’re paying extortion taxes in the thousands on a monthly basis, it blows up the whole model which, quite frankly, is f.uckng flawed to begin with. It’s a dupe, a sales pitch, a heist and as long as there is one m0ron to propagate the theft, the process will continue. The affordibility level is horrid in our area and the number of victims that are still hanging by a thread is mind-boggling. Believe otherwise because that’s the exact type of defective thinking that enables the other side to feast on your mistake.

  25. Brian says:

    Went to my first town council meeting this week. What an eye opener that was. Found out that the State DEP is pressuring towns to pass ordinances that promote water conservation. Kinda dumb in my town because most people are middle class/Blue collar and can’t really afford to water their lawns all the time anyway. Water is expensive in my town so people are generally conservative with water already.

    The proposed law would have meant that you could only water your lawn Monday, Wednesday, and Friday between the hours of 6-9AM and 5-8PM. That’s crazy. Thankfully the ordinance did not pass.

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    Brian [26];

    Don’t forget the revenue angle — Even if it doesn’t save a drop of water, it is an excuse to write $75 tickets to violators.

  27. grim says:

    26 – Whenever I hear about those kinds of things, I think they have more to do with trying to manage peak water demand than conservation of water. Upgrading water delivery capacity is really expensive, so giving folks a “feel good” reason to do these things helps towards changing the behaviors.

    That said, you shouldn’t water your lawn between 9 and 5 in the summer anyway, it’s a waste of time, and not good for the grass. Surprised they aren’t allowing for earlier times, 5 am is probably ideal this time of year.

  28. Condo 1987 says:

    #21…the towns/county’s/schools still need the same amount of money..so that “rate” will rise as necessary as the value of homes dropped.

  29. Brian says:

    Two words: “Abbott Districts”.

    Your property tax bill has a breakdown…..I don’t know about yours but on mine like 70 to 80% of it goes to schools.

    The state divy’s up a pile of money every year and sends it to public schools in the state. 31 Abbott districts get 60% of the money. There are approximately 590 districts in the state and the remaining only get 40% of the state aid to divide amongst them.

    So, your local school has to make up the difference somehow…..see the above mentioned property tax bill…..

    Christie supports an equitible distribution of state aid to schools but the NJ Supreme court forced him to send an additional $500 million to the Abbott districts. He has tried to make appointments to the supreme court who he finds like minded but is blocked by the state Legislature. So….check mate.

    If you want lower property taxes, get on the phone with your local representative every single fkuking day and write them a zillion letters, telling them to support equitable distribution of state aid to schools and to support Christie’s appointees to the NJ Supreme court.

    http://www.politifact.com/new-jersey/statements/2011/dec/01/chris-christie/Chris-Christie-claims-31-former-Abbott-districts-r/

    Good luck.

    25.Fast Eddie says:
    August 28, 2013 at 10:21 am
    CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming has also crunched affordability numbers. Nationally, at the current rate of price growth versus median income growth, mortgage rates would have to hit 6.5% before housing becomes less affordable than economic fundamentals could support.

    For the millionth time, it doesn’t apply here. When you’re paying extortion taxes in the thousands on a monthly basis, it blows up the whole model which, quite frankly, is f.uckng flawed to begin with. It’s a dupe, a sales pitch, a heist and as long as there is one m0ron to propagate the theft, the process will continue. The affordibility level is horrid in our area and the number of victims that are still hanging by a thread is mind-boggling. Believe otherwise because that’s the exact type of defective thinking that enables the other side to feast on your mistake.

  30. JJ says:

    The chinkbots are too busy doing my rub and tugs now that I am back to spam.

    Isnt property tax on a macro level a non-event? I mean in my town the taxes I am charged are just paid to the cops and teachers who all live somewhat nearby. The money I would have spent is just spent by them instead.

    Interesting article two weeks ago by that economist Irwin Keller. He did a study to see if on Long Island the huge amount of money spent on home repairs would stimulate the economy and was suprised it did not unlike in other past natural disasters.

    His study showed that nearly all home repairs were just stealing future work from contractors. Kinda like Cash for clunkers. People just accelerated car purchases a year or two so over time it was not a big effect. Long Island has such a huge supply of older homes and a combination of high taxes, the financial crisis and the real estate meltdown has caused folks to put off investment in their homes for many years. So the repairs were mainly stuff that would have been done anyhow. Unlike places in Vegas, Atlanta etc with tons of stock of new homes where it would create new business.

    For instance I lost a 57 year old oil burner and oil tank. A 30 year old den remodel with popcorn ceilings and a mica cabinets and a 40 year old bathroom along with a ten year old stove and a twenty year old freezzer. Granted I would not have got to that right away but most was old and I would have got to all of that in the next ten years. Instead I did it now. The younger folk on my block who had folk and bought at peak between 2003 and 2008 are underwater on the house and have high mortgage payments, they did zero to house since they bought it.

    Funny how car dealerships and home contractors in 2015 near me will all be underemployed for next 5-10 years.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:
    August 28, 2013 at 10:19 am

    I think the Chinese bots came out cuz JJ wasn’t around. Now that he’s back, his virile manliness will keep them at bay.

  31. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [28];

    Upgrading water delivery capacity is really expensive, so giving folks a “feel good” reason to do these things helps towards changing the behaviors.

    I had a similar thought when Nanny Bloomberg turned Times Square into a pedestrian mall. It would surely reach into the hundreds of billions, if not trillions, to repair/replace the century-old subway vault below Times Square. Pedestrians are much lighter than trucks.

  32. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [7] I agree clot. Even though the fed is running at Wide Open Throttle, I think they’ll soon find and correct some slack in the throttle cable and up purchases by $15B to $100B/month.

    The 10y is toast, because the biggest foreign holders are selling, selling, selling.

    Combine that with any kind of “taper” (not that I think they ever will taper), and things will get very disorderly.

  33. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    In fact I think most new employment will come in the form of road building. They need to build more road so they can kick the can past the looming dead end.

  34. Brian says:

    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

    The 10y is toast, because the biggest foreign holders are selling, selling, selling.

  35. Brian says:

    Looking at that chart…they are selling, selling, selling month over month sometimes….

    Also they are buying, buying, buying month over month sometimes…

  36. grim says:

    34 – Need more bridges too, those are expensive. Maybe a monorail.

  37. Dan in debt says:

    I was expecting JJ to say that his log has it’s own log.

  38. Jason says:

    [11] Grim,

    Question about your Honda.

    How much do you reckon your electricity costs have increased per month attributable to the EV?

  39. grim says:

    That heat wave has made it tough to know (AC has been cranking), I’ve got to assume yes, but no idea how much yet.

    Just a quick calc based on my mileage, I’d have had to spend at least $160 on electric since the first plug-in.

  40. JJ says:

    For my NJ beach house buyer friend. So starting 10-1-2013 we go to full risk rate on new policies. Usually flood policies have a 30 day waiting period. So starting next week all quotes will be at the new rate. Have agent confirm BFE and see if Elevation Certificate is on file and boom, if house is properly elevated you are good for a long time, FEMA does not update maps very often and when they do existing homeowners have a several year phase in period.

    Folks who bought homes cheap after Sandy with cheap flood may be surprised when rates renew. FEMA did not give much credit at all based on how high your house was as vacation homes were subsidized and grandfathered to BFE on day they were built. Not after 10-1-2013.

    How can someone find out what a property’s full risk rate will be?

    Answer: Of the many factors that determine the full risk rate of a structure, the single most important is the elevation of the structure in relation to the Base Flood Elevation (BFE). A community’s Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) indicates the area of the community that has a 1% or greater annual chance of flooding. That area is called the Special Flood Hazard Area, or high-risk zone. Put another way, the BFE is the elevation where there is a 1% or greater annual chance of flooding. For a property in the high-risk zone, you need to know the elevation of the structure in relation to the BFE. Generally, the higher the elevation above the BFE, the lower the
    flood risk. The information is shown on an Elevation Certificate, which is a form completed and signed by a licensed engineer or surveyor. So to determine the premium for a property in a high-risk zone, you first need an elevation certificate. Then, an insurance agent can calculate the premium based on the amount of coverage desired.

  41. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [37];

    MONORAIL! http://youtu.be/AEZjzsnPhnw

    The people mover did wonders for Detroit.

  42. Condo 1987 says:

    #43..Classic..the call this CalTrain in California!

  43. ccb223 says:

    JJ — this is very helpful. The seller gave me a “plot plan” which clearly shows the house is elevated 8 ft (and just by looking at the house you can tell that’s about right) but I will be sure to ask for the formal elevation certificate. House was built in 1999 but I presume they had elevation certificates back then, if not, can’t imagine it would be difficult to get. Feeling better about this since I confirmed BFE is 8 feet so things seem to be lining up.

    Thanks.

  44. JJ says:

    When I got a flood insurance quote on my new place prior to purchase the flood insurance guy requested a elevation certificate from the town. I got it like a week or two later.

    If you ask owner of house who his/her insurance agent is since house was built in 1999 I bet he has it on file. I put a bid in on another beach place and realtor gave me name of flood guy owner used and he emailed it to me in an hour.

    My primary house is at 8 BFE and since it is a split the lower level den/bathroom/laundry room. furnace is almost two feet below ground. I never got water before sandy in almost 60 years since house was built even with a den that is two steps down from outside. Remember Sandy was a once in 700 year flood. I am at 8 BFE and we had at most five feet on my block.

    8 BFE is pretty good. Down at beach new me I see plenty of 12-13 BFE bungalows sitting flat on the ground and they survived for 80 years till Sandy. Most were rebuilt as is after Sandy and I say 10% raised.

    Good Luck!!!

    ccb223 says:
    August 28, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    JJ — this is very helpful. The seller gave me a “plot plan” which clearly shows the house is elevated 8 ft (and just by looking at the house you can tell that’s about right) but I will be sure to ask for the formal elevation certificate. House was built in 1999 but I presume they had elevation certificates back then, if not, can’t imagine it would be difficult to get. Feeling better about this since I confirmed BFE is 8 feet so things seem to be lining up.

    Thanks.

  45. nwnj says:

    So now it’s newsworthy when someone is honest and doesn’t commit a crime?

  46. AG says:

    John Kerry is one ugly mofo. He’s even uglier when his lips are moving. Putin isn’t a guy I would mess with. Never thought I would see the day when everything my gub says is BS and I have to look to the Russians for some truth.

    It’s all turning to sh_t.

  47. Essex says:

    31. Chinkbots. New Indonesian noise rock band??

  48. All this Syria stuff sounds just like the rush to start bombing Iraq.

    That turned out really well.

  49. Article 1 of the Constitution should be some sort of language stating our intent to be constantly at war (preferably a war that looks good on TV without too many visibly bloody US casualties) until the end of time.

  50. AG (48)-

    That day came a long time ago.

    “Never thought I would see the day when everything my gub says is BS and I have to look to the Russians for some truth.”

  51. Will the war be televised?

  52. Fabius Maximus says:

    A very interesting article, puts a little reality on the right wing spin to this whole issue.
    It also throws up a very interesting angle that I was not aware of.
    “Nor has it enforced rules requiring that donors to those groups pay gift tax on their donations.”
    http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/14/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20130514

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    I find it amusing that Fabu’s post [67] is nearly indistinguishable from the spam:

    “Here’s a very interesting article you should read …”

  54. Most stuff gluteus posts is at the level of spam.

    See you in the drop zone, glute.

  55. yome says:

    GDP 2.5 with sequestration concensus 2.1

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