NJ’s inability to foreclose costs everyone

From HousingWire:

Four states face sticker shock from g-fees, adverse market fees

Four states failed to make the exclusive list of 46 states that no longer have to provide the upfront 25-basis point adverse market fee: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Florida.

The Federal Housing Administration recently announced the expected rise in guaranteed fees, but in addition to the new hike, the FHA eliminated the adverse market fee in a majority of the U.S. states.

“From the actual number standpoint there are three things we have to consider: the 10 basis point g-fee increase, the 25 bp adverse market fee elimination and the four states that don’t receive the elimination,” Quicken Loans Chief Economist Bob Walters said.

Due to varying state laws and practices that govern the foreclosure process, there are significant discrepancies in the average length of time it takes a state to complete the foreclosure process.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, being the largest mortgage investors, have incurred significantly greater total carrying costs due to the lengthening of foreclosure timelines in recent years, the FHA said.

To combat this issue, the FHA said they would focus most on the extreme outlier states in terms of high carrying costs.

From these calculations, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Florida were left out since they maintain ‘expected carrying costs’ that are more than two standard deviations above the national average.

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112 Responses to NJ’s inability to foreclose costs everyone

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J.’s economy forecast to lag nation’s growth until 2033

    New Jersey, trailing the U.S. and neighboring states in employment, will see economic growth about 15 percent slower than the national rate through 2033, according to a Rutgers University analysis.

    The most densely populated state won’t match its January 2008 peak of 4.1 million jobs until late 2017, according to Nancy Mantell, director of the New Brunswick-based school’s Economic Advisory Service. That’s three years behind the national turnaround, she said.

    New Jersey recouped slightly more than half the jobs lost during the recession that began in December 2007, while the U.S. regained 83 percent. Though the state unemployment rate dropped to 8.4 percent in October from 9.6 percent a year earlier, it is more than one percentage point above the U.S. figure. It will remain “at least a bit higher” through 2033, Mantell said.

    “I’m a little concerned about temporary office employment, which has declined over the past year,” Mantell said in a telephone interview today, before she was to present findings at the service’s subscribers conference. “Hiring temps tends to be a harbinger for near-future employment growth in the state.”

  2. 1987 Condo says:

    Fast Eddie Alert, check out photo, 1,200 square feet, $1.18 Million

    http://online.wsj.com/news/interactive/GRACIE1212?ref=SB10001424052702304477704579252623114232550

  3. grim says:

    Interesting, Trulia adds Employment Rate of 25-34 year olds to their “Housing Barometer”, from Forbes:

    Trulia: Housing Recovery In 2013 Moves Ahead, Unevenly

    Existing home sales (excluding distressed) were 79% back to normal in October, up from 51% one year earlier. While existing and pending home sales have slipped in recent months, distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – account for much of the drop. The mix of sales continues to shift from distressed to non-distressed, which is a sign of market recovery.

    Prices have had an astounding recovery in the past year. Trulia’s Bubble Watch shows prices were 4% undervalued in Q4 2013, compared with 15% at the worst of the housing bust, which means that prices are almost three-quarters (71%) of the way back to the “normal” level of being neither over- nor under-valued. One year ago, prices looked 13% undervalued – just 16% of the way back to normal from their worst levels – leading home prices to win the “most improved” award over the past year.

    The delinquency + foreclosure rate fell to 8.92% in October after rising to more than 14% during the recession. This rate is now 59% back to normal. Rising prices and an improving economy have caused fewer borrowers to become seriously delinquent on their mortgages in the first place; at the other end of the pipeline, more foreclosures continue to get completed and sold. The remaining foreclosure inventory is increasingly concentrated in Florida and several other states with long legal foreclosure processes.

    New home starts are just 36% of the way back to normal. The latest three-month average (from August because more recent data have been delayed by the government shutdown) is 870,000 starts, well below the long-term norm of 1.5 million. Construction, however, is looking up: the latest permits data, for October, showed a jump to 1.03 million, which heralds an increase in starts in November or December.

    Employment for young adults is the recovery’s caboose. Just 74.9% of adults age 25-34 are employed, which is only 23% back to normal (79.3% employment rate) from the worst level of the recession (73.6%). Young adults need jobs in order to move out of their parents’ homes, form their own households, and eventually become homeowners. In turn, construction depends on household formation. The housing market cannot fully recover until young adults get back to work.

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Soaring home-price growth to slow down in 2014: analyst

    U.S. home prices that have galloped higher this year will slow down in 2014 as more sellers become willing and able to place their homes on the market, according to a Wednesday research note.

    Analysts at Capital Economics expect annual home-price growth to hit about 4% next year, compared with a rate that recently exceeded 13%.

    “We expect this year to mark the peak for house-price inflation, and anticipate that the rate of price rises will more than halve in 2014,” according to the note.

    Low inventory levels have supported the rapid gains in home prices, which, in turn, are enticing sellers to place their homes on the market, including properties that have regained equity.

    “Rapidly increasing house prices have been particularly important in bringing sellers who were previously in negative equity back to the market,” analysts wrote.

  5. Ghost of Obama says:

    I blame Christie.

  6. Mantra for 2014:

    “From these calculations, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Florida were left out since they maintain ‘expected carrying costs’ that are more than two standard deviations above the national average.”

    Oblivion, dead ahead.

  7. Ottoman says:

    “I blame Christie.”

    Watch it or Christie will drop a bridge on you.

  8. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Nov. foreclosure filings drop 15%: RealtyTrac

    Foreclosure starts dropped to a 95-month low as November foreclosure filings fell 15%, RealtyTrac said Thursday. The 113,454 foreclosures last month also represent a 37% drop from one year ago. RealtyTrac said it’s the biggest monthly drop since the period following the revelation of the so-called robo-signing scandal in October 2010.

  9. Essex says:

    FWIW NJ sucks balls. For those stuck here $25o-300k is the minimum to make this craphole tolerable. For those considering a move here? Just don’t.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Calling around the country yesterday…….Atlanta, Phoenix, Minneapolis……NJ is pretty damned good. Also, I got shut out of $7,000 of fees yesterday because something closed out before I could settle it…….my stocking had a lump of coal this year…..

    Essex says:
    December 12, 2013 at 9:03 am
    FWIW NJ sucks balls. For those stuck here $25o-300k is the minimum to make this craphole tolerable. For those considering a move here? Just don’t.

  11. Essex says:

    10. Sorry to hear it. Been here way too long myself. Methinks.

  12. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    ChifI would not even get out of bed for 250K.

    Essex says:
    December 12, 2013 at 9:03 am

    FWIW NJ sucks balls. For those stuck here $25o-300k is the minimum to make this craphole tolerable. For those considering a move here? Just don’t.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [6] spine

    Methinks the good folks of the counties along the Delaware had best get their militias in order.

    Except we have just as much human detritus on this side of the bridges.

    Oh well, at least we can hunt our own.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    Spine, saw you are tasting the Weyerbacher this week. Good stuff.

    Grim, I replied to your email with some alternates that I check more frequently. Let me know if you didn’t get it.

  15. Street Justice says:

    One more lesson slowly learned….delaying foreclosures helps no one.

  16. Street Justice says:

    Even as a homeowner…If I had to undergo a foreclosure, I’d want the process to be over with quickly so I could start rebuilding my life.

  17. Street Justice says:

    Who wants to sit around for years wondering when the Sheriff was coming?

  18. unbelievable says:

    grim the shill
    struck again yesterday. He showed that middle class has shrunk and higher income households increased in NJ. He failed to observe that the middle class losses where mostly lower class gains. That’s the tragedy folks. Who would mind if middle class becomes richer? No it became poorer.
    Yet grim the shill discovered another argument to justify the bubble. See, he knows that re as wall street is psychology based, fundamentals don’t matter until of course the bubble is popped.
    If you hear again “that the rich are pushing prices up in select neighborhoods” you know that grim the shill is just messing with you because all tiers went up despite income loss. If you see an affordable neighborhood becoming unaffordable and you need to borrow more to get in, grim the shill has nothing to do with it.

  19. Street Justice says:

    Conrad the Constitution S2 Ep4 – How The Turd Stole Health Care .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHMTzlEknjo

    Happy Holidays

  20. grim says:

    Who wants to sit around for years wondering when the Sheriff was coming?

    Who wants to be the Sheriff when the mob is coming?

  21. Street Justice says:

    Drones…This one’s for Joyce…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2zqNtf3cEw

  22. Essex says:

    18. Blaming the messenger. What everyone here knows is that anyone regardless of income is just one layoff/RIF away from oblivion. Smoke em’ if you got em!!

  23. grim says:

    He showed that middle class has shrunk and higher income households increased in NJ. He failed to observe that the middle class losses where mostly lower class gains. That’s the tragedy folks. Who would mind if middle class becomes richer? No it became poorer.

    How do you figure – I see that the middle class became smaller and that the lower and upper classes got larger.

    http://njrereport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/13774875-large.jpg

    If the upper income group got 25% larger, pray tell where did these people magically come from? I would assume that since the middle income group was the only segment to fall, that some of the middle group became upper (and some got poor). Realize that from an income mobility perspective, in order to score well in the typical rankings, you need to let folks actually become poor too – income and class mobility is not about everyone getting wealthier.

    REALIZE THAT THIS CHART DOES NOT USE NORMALIZED SEGMENT SIZES AND USES A MUCH SMALLER SEGMENT SIZE AT THE LOWER END. DON’T LOOK AT THE BARS WITHOUT FIRST UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENT GROUP SIZING

    I think this kind of statistical graph is MISLEADING. At the bottom of the chart, the segment is in $50k blocks, at the top it’s in $5k increments. Huh? Yeah the end result is lots of blue bars at the top, where there should be 10x the number of blue bars at the bottom. With equal segment sizes, the group $125k+ should have 30 blue bars.

  24. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    just getting back form deer hunting. WE have a new troll? grim didn’t know you were a housing fluffer?

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    I’ll also add that affording a decent house in a decent neighborhood is predicated on two incomes. Growing up, it was based on Dad working and Mom staying at home. In the late 40s/early 50’s, a 5K salary gave you a 10K house. In the mid 60s/early 70s, a 20K salary gave you a 40K house.

    Now, anything decent where a gun and bars on the windows aren’t needed is going to cost 300K. Doesn’t that equate to 150K income? Not for one worker in the house, it doesn’t. So now, the two income house is standard. Oh wait… there’s property taxes, too? And they’re equal to a mortgage payment? It’s warped, all of it and completely papered over to think all is normal. It’s not. And you’re a s.ucker to believe otherwise.

  26. Anon E. Moose says:

    RE: Title Post;

    Quoth Final Doom, May 8, 2010:

    >2. No program to combat underwater mortgages will work until all parties understand that foreclosure is the solution and not the problem.<

    Still true.

  27. grim says:

    In the late 40s/early 50′s, a 5K salary gave you a 10K house. In the mid 60s/early 70s, a 20K salary gave you a 40K house.

    1950 – $10,408 / $4,300= 2.4x
    1960 – $16,500 / $6,107 = 2.7x

  28. I love when grim lets loose on unbelievable with both barrels.

  29. grim says:

    25 – Women belong barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen?

  30. grim says:

    It’s like a funny variation on the prisoner’s dilemma.

    The minute 1 family chooses to have two working spouses to increase income and standard of living, everyone loses, since in short order maintaining the old standard of living will require two working spouses and single income families are at a disadvantage. Then, it builds to a crescendo where two high income individuals form a family. A one income earner trying to compete against two high paid incomes? Impossible.

    Don’t hate the game, hate your neighbor, it is their fault.

  31. Street Justice says:

    It’s hard in NJ one one salary. I miss that second income.

    grim says:
    December 12, 2013 at 11:13 am
    25 – Women belong barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen?

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    If the upper income group got 25% larger, pray tell where did these people magically come from?

    Two incomes.

    I would assume that since the middle income group was the only segment to fall, that some of the middle group became upper (and some got poor).

    They bought the overpriced sh1tbox so that they wouldn’t get priced out forever and also so that Preston and Muffy can go to a “blue ribbon” school. Then, presto, one spouse loses a job and they’re poor. They may be hanging by a thread, they may be not. Overnight, they become underwater bag holders, one cup of ramen noodle from eviction. But, they’re certainly not middle class any longer because that classification no longer exists.

  33. grim says:

    You honestly aren’t saying that two income families are a new phenomenon in NJ, c’mon man.

  34. 1987 Condo says:

    Again, it seems the stats do show that more Middle Class folks moved UP to “upper class” and less moved DOWN to lower class and most stayed same. Whether this is based on a contained population or more professionals and executives moving to NJ, I do not know. It is what it is…..I am not thrilled that my wife and I each have Masters degrees, have been working since age 18 and basically have an expanded ranch that was standard among HS graduates 2 generations ago…but there it is!

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    You honestly aren’t saying that two income families are a new phenomenon in NJ, c’mon man.

    [With a shoulder shrug, head tilted, pressed smile, hands spread…]

    I have nothing further, your honor. :)

  36. grim says:

    IMHO – Dual income households are one of the LEADING reasons for income inequality within the United States.

    Sorry, but when on one side you have a single female with 2 kids and on the other you have a double high wage income household with no kids – you need to acknowledge that some rather extreme level of wage inequality is going to need to exist.

    Who do you blame for the inequality in this situation? The single mother or the DINK yuppies? Perhaps we should make it illegal for two lawyers or doctors to marry, since it upsets the GINI.

  37. grim says:

    The magic date y’all need to know is 1998 – That is the first year that dual income households became more common than single income households.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    The magic date y’all need to know is 1998 – That is the first year that dual income households became more common than single income households.

    And a year or two later is when the unabated skyrocket in house prices began. I stood in line in 2000 at open houses as the house tour guide barked out orders to give your best and highest as the house will be sold by the evening.

    A decade later, job loses prevail, salaries have decreased and continue to do so and property taxes are a sustained tidal wave. What’s left? House prices need to drop… and they will. Wanna throw another wrench into the mix? Wait until your company drops your health benefits starting next year.

  39. Street Justice says:

    You can still live on one income in NJ. I know plenty of people that do it. But, you are not going to live in any of the counties that Fast Eddie is looking in. You have to be willing to make sacrifices. And you will probably live like your grandparents did. In a smaller house, with crappy cars…no payment. Be ready to commute long distances…30 minute commute to Manhattan is not in the cards.

    Eventually when the kids are older and in school, maybe the wife can get a job and you can have some extra spending money. Hell, you’ll be in a good position then because you will have two incomes and be able to pay the expenses on one.

  40. grim says:

    Dual income households were something like 1/3rd of all households back in the mid 1970s, this wasn’t a switch that turned on in 1998. Looking for current stats, but I believe the number is somewhere around 60% currently, and I believe has fallen slightly since the recession.

    I stood in line in 2000 at open houses as the house tour guide barked out orders to give your best and highest as the house will be sold by the evening.

    We were also stock market moguls with pockets so flush full of dollars we couldn’t fill our pockets any more. Hell, in retrospect, the folks that sold out before the top and purchased real estate before the dot com bubble blew up made out like bandits.

  41. Outofstater says:

    No two families are alike and they all make decisions that are based on their own situations but the question for me was: Is living in New Jersey worth outsourcing the care of my children to daycare? The answer was no.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    …studies show that up 75% of professional money managers lag their benchmarks over time simply because they actively try to beat them. As odd as it sounds, had they done nothing they’d probably have been better off.

    “It’s not unusual for indexes to outperform the managers consistently over time,” says Hugh Johnson of Hugh Johnson Advisors. “You’re not going to find from me an argument against indexing, by both professional or large investors, as well as small investors.”

    You’re not going to find an argument from me either.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/fire-your-fund-manager–stock-indices-trounce-portfolio-pros-150007884.html

  43. 1987 Condo says:

    #2..I do like my $400,000…2,000 sq ft house better than diBlasio’s row home that is 3x more expensive and only 60% the size…..expensive dirt!

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    Is living in New Jersey worth outsourcing the care of my children to daycare?

    It’s the job of a pancake, makeup-faced, house tour guide to convince you otherwise! ;)

  45. Doyle says:

    “You can still live on one income in NJ. I know plenty of people that do it. But, you are not going to live in any of the counties that Fast Eddie is looking in. You have to be willing to make sacrifices. And you will probably live like your grandparents did. In a smaller house, with crappy cars…no payment. Be ready to commute long distances…30 minute commute to Manhattan is not in the cards”

    I get what you’re saying, but a lot of people in the towns Eddie is looking in are living on one income. Not everyone is hanging on by a thread, to Grim’s point(s), a lot of people are doing very well out there.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Hell, in retrospect, the folks that sold out before the top and purchased real estate before the dot com bubble blew up made out like bandits.

    Don’t say that too loudly or the 2005 house purchase crowd will chase you with a bat.

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    … a lot of people are doing very well out there.

    True. But a greater number are not. And those of us that know it, refuse to bail out those that made poor financial decisions.

  48. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [18, 23] unbelievable, grim

    Understand that, at the margins, migration from middle class to lower class is intentional.

    Huh?

    Consider that tax changes and medicaid rules make it attractive to look poor, especially when you retire or if you are self-employed. Too much income and you actually wind up paying more in taxes on distributions than you saved in the first place (which is why traditional IRAs suck and should not be used). Also, too many assets and income, and you get wiped out by a catastrophic illness. So there are folks out there who are aggressively reconfiguring their estates to look “poor.” House goes into a trust or kids’ names (or perhaps it is gifted but a life estate reserved); assets go into trusts or into the mattress; more income is “underground” than ever before and staying that way; more self-employment income is sheltered by tax techniques; you get the idea.

    The upshot is that there are folks out there (a small percentage, to be sure) who are “poor” on paper but not really.

  49. njescapee says:

    Change in NJ income demo sure must be due to folks exiting the 5 boroughs

    1987 Condo says:
    December 12, 2013 at 11:48 am
    #2..I do like my $400,000…2,000 sq ft house better than diBlasio’s row home that is 3x more expensive and only 60% the size…..expensive dirt!

  50. grim says:

    No two families are alike and they all make decisions that are based on their own situations but the question for me was: Is living in New Jersey worth outsourcing the care of my children to daycare? The answer was no.

    Don’t follow your reasoning, this isn’t a NJ centric phenomenon. Everything I’ve seen from the census and bls make this appear to be a fairly consistent trend across the entire US.

  51. Being born is a poor financial decision.

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat,

    That’s the Christmas spirit! ;)

  53. grim (50)-

    Agreed. And, it’s part of a deliberate plan to systematically swindle, then destroy, the middle class. The gubmint, the entitlement class (poor) and the white collar welfare class (rich) have each siphoned off as much wealth as they can appropriate, and now there is nothing left but scorched earth.

    To destroy the middle class, it must be done completely…all 50 states, no exception. That way, no one will get the bright idea that moving to a “place where things are better” is a good idea.

    Remain calm, and shelter in place. Help is on the way. It will be change you can believe in.

    “No two families are alike and they all make decisions that are based on their own situations but the question for me was: Is living in New Jersey worth outsourcing the care of my children to daycare? The answer was no.

    Don’t follow your reasoning, this isn’t a NJ centric phenomenon. Everything I’ve seen from the census and bls make this appear to be a fairly consistent trend across the entire US.”

  54. fcuk Santa and the mangy reindeer he rode in on

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    LMAO!! Nice!

  56. Street Justice says:

    45 – well aware of that. I work alongside equity analysts, traders and portfolio managers.

  57. Outofstater says:

    #50 It may be a trend nationwide but it is not imperative in other states as much as it is in NJ because the cost of living is so high. I think a family can have a good quality of life with good schools for less money and less stress in many parts of the country. Those places are not near NYC, they don’t have good pizza, good bagels are hard to find and many in NJ would consider them to be uncivilized. As I said, everyone is different and that’s okay. Some of my HS classmates would never consider leaving NJ because they love living there. I’m just saying there are other options with pluses and minuses to each.

  58. Doyle says:

    #57 Agreed. My wife is from PA, her friends love to visit us, go out in the city, have a great time and then drive home. They always say “I don’t know how you guys live here”… Funny, I feel the same when I visit them.

  59. Street Justice says:

    I’m not staying here for Bagels an Pizza. Fcuk that.

  60. Street Justice says:

    Anybody ever been to St. Petersburg, Florida? How’s that area?

  61. grim says:

    It may be a trend nationwide but it is not imperative in other states as much as it is in NJ because the cost of living is so high. I think a family can have a good quality of life with good schools for less money and less stress in many parts of the country.

    I still don’t believe this to be the case on aggregate, sorry I’ve spent a considerable amount of time in smaller metros across the US, especially metros that would be considered on net lower cost/lower income areas. I’ve also spent considerable amounts of time with locals in what would probably be considered a low to mid-wage industry. I’ve made friends there, it’s not Mayberry, the stories are different but the struggles are just the same.

    Now, this isn’t to say someone from an expensive area can’t do well in a lower-cost area, but I suspect this form of arbitrage is not available to all. What I mean by this is many in this area, gain and hone their expertise and build out what would be considered a stellar CV outside of the major metro areas. They are then able to parlay this expertise into relatively well paying (and rarer) positions in smaller metro areas. However, these same opportunities might not be available to local residents who haven’t had similar work experiences, positions, etc.

    I’ve seen this one play out personally a number of times. I’ve had some folks out in the midwest tell me they love hiring people from the NY metro, because they actually get shit done, unlike the lazy locals… take it for what it’s worth.

  62. McDullard says:

    The property tax rate on the 1.18 million house seems very low. Do city taxes go towards school budgets?

  63. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Extremely few people at my level spouse works and the majority of folks one level down have working spouses and no one ahead of me has a working spouse.

    Look at Mary Barra new CEO of GM. She is 51 and has worked at GM her whole life. Had two kids along the way now teenagers, went to Stanford to get MBA ran whole division. Very Impressive women.

    Whose her husband? Some guy who has not worked in years who she who “consults”, yep every mr. Mom has their linked in title as a consultant.

  64. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    How come Jersey Jews like to retire to cities in Florida names after Catholic Saints?

    Street Justice says:
    December 12, 2013 at 12:43 pm

    Anybody ever been to St. Petersburg, Florida? How’s that area?

  65. grim says:

    Not to disagree with JJ – but if you look at the income quintiles for any area -I guarantee you’ll find that as incomes increase so does the % of married and does the number of wage earners per household.

    No area is immune from the double income trap.

  66. xolepa says:

    (58) That’s too bad. I live in Hunterdon county amongst rich, some poor, but nevertheless in an area surrounded by beautiful vistas. NYC is only 45 minutes away by car on a weekend. No one ever visiting us dislikes my surroundings. They actually can’t believe it’s Jersey.

    What I am saying is the closer you live to NYC, the more the out-of-towners feel you are to close to the concrete jungle.

  67. grim says:

    Here is the picture nationally as of 2010:

    Lowest 20 percent – 0.5 earners per household
    Second 20 percent – 0.9 earners per household
    Third 20 percent – 1.3 earners per household
    Fourth 20 percent – 1.7 earners per household
    Highest 20 percent – 2.0 earners per household

  68. Doyle says:

    #66

    It was more a reference to the cost of living, commuting, etc. They can’t believe I have to take a 40 min train to work, then a subway and stay at work until 6p. They drive 5 mins down the road. They also make hardly any money and get laid off from time to time, and struggle to find a new job. To each his own.

  69. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    But you got fat stacks of cash Walter White Style.

    Doyle says:
    December 12, 2013 at 1:04 pm

    #66

    It was more a reference to the cost of living, commuting, etc. They can’t believe I have to take a 40 min train to work, then a subway and stay at work until 6p. They drive 5 mins down the road. They also make hardly any money and get laid off from time to time, and struggle to find a new job. To each his own.

  70. joyce says:

    Is there evidence that the two-income family was the cause of higher cost of living and not the result thereof?

  71. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    In all honestly, I did a trip once to Baton Rouge for work. Very nice, laid back, homes cost nothing, dinner out was so cheap it was embarrassing. Even work was such a slow pace it felt relaxing.

    But in talking to one of the employees he said it is a death trap. He is like I am stuck here to the day I die until you new yorkers who retire in Mansions in Florida.

    I go what do you mean. Well he was like retirement is based on income and price of your home at retirement.

    Folks in NY get Max SS benefit. Down here we are only making 35-55K so our SS stinks. None of us earn enough to max out 401Ks, and our houses in retirement are worth nothing.

    Someone in NY who graduates at 21 retires at 61 maxed or near maxed 401K for 40 years, maxed or near maxed SS 40 years and his paid off house is worth at least half a million.

    They can go to Florida and live like kings. Baton Rouge is a dirt cheap dump. Our ss and 401K as well as home is near worthless when we are 61 so we are stuck here till death.

  72. grim says:

    70 – The rise in dual incomes appears to correspond with the demise of the US manufacturing sector.

  73. Street Justice says:

    The coming revolution…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2Ba6_nkxCE&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLOAadTAPCbH_9zACskW2NFTuUTVmN6GMP

    53.Spine Snapper says:
    December 12, 2013 at 12:06 pm
    grim (50)-

    Agreed. And, it’s part of a deliberate plan to systematically swindle, then destroy, the middle class. The gubmint, the entitlement class (poor) and the white collar welfare class (rich) have each siphoned off as much wealth as they can appropriate, and now there is nothing left but scorched earth.

    To destroy the middle class, it must be done completely…all 50 states, no exception. That way, no one will get the bright idea that moving to a “place where things are better” is a good idea.

    Remain calm, and shelter in place. Help is on the way. It will be change you can believe in.

  74. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Just take a chart of home values and overlap it to women’s lib. As more and more women enter work force home prices keep rising as couple could afford more.

    joyce says:
    December 12, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    Is there evidence that the two-income family was the cause of higher cost of living and not the result thereof?

  75. Doyle says:

    #71

    JJ: that is what I way to my wife all the time. She’s not looking to leave by any means, but the huge difference for us living in this area is exactly what you wrote. Although when I met a nice guy at a Baton Rouge tailgate a few years ago, he told me, “we know y’all are laughing at us up there, but truth is, were all laughing at you…” He was quite happy with his situation, so again, to each his own.

  76. joyce says:

    Gary,
    I think the evidence is pretty clear that incomes had nothing to do with the increase in home prices. The two completely detached during the bubble; the amount of credit created during period was unprecedented.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 12, 2013 at 11:37 am

    And a year or two later is when the unabated skyrocket in house prices began. I stood in line in 2000 at open houses as the house tour guide barked out orders to give your best and highest as the house will be sold by the evening.

  77. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    http://www.parentsociety.com/pregnancy/17-horrifying-baby-shower-cakes/4/

    trying to pick a cake for a baby shower at work, which one do you like?

  78. Juice Box says:

    Man I am wrecked this week, picked up three differeent viruses from my kids.
    Nothing like sneezing, coughing and crapping your pants all at the same while bowled over in aches and pains hugging the porcelain for dear life. The Flu is the only thing I don’t have right now, if I get it I may lose my mind.

  79. grim says:

    77 – I would go with the meatloaf baby with a bacon diaper, damn that looks tasty.

  80. grim says:

    75 – Myth of the happy poor

  81. Fast Eddie says:

    Regulations drafted by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will change the definition of a qualified mortgage for any loan applications received on and after Jan. 10, and many consumers may find themselves unable to meet the new requirements

    It’s important to meet qualified mortgage standards because government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have said they won’t buy non-qualified mortgages starting next year, said Joshua Weinberg, senior vice president of compliance with First Choice Lending/Bank.

    What’s Changing?

    Mortgages must pass tests of sorts to meet the standards of a qualified mortgage: The APR must be within 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of the annual prime offer rate, the loan term cannot exceed 30 years, points and fees cannot exceed 3% of the loan balance and there can be no negative amortization or interest-only payments.

    Under these conditions, the mortgage qualifies for safe harbor, meaning the lender is not at risk of being sued by a borrower who is unable to repay the loan.

    The ability to repay comprises a series of requirements that must be met by the borrower and verified by the lender, including income and debt levels. All of these CFPB regulations are aimed at protecting consumers from mortgages they can’t reasonably expect to repay, because such faulty loans triggered the recent financial crisis.

    Given these limitations, and some new restrictions on lenders that also go into effect in January, some have suggested that consumers may find themselves struggling to acquire a mortgage. Weinberg described it this way: Originating a mortgage has been a process that blends science and art. The science includes the regulations that give clear guidelines for what does and does not meet qualified mortgage standards. The art comes in when an originator decides to approve or deny a mortgage application, even if a borrower doesn’t meet every requirement in the book, because his or her experiences can give important context to a case that numbers and rules cannot.

    “With this QM rule we’re seeing an elimination of the art and a focus on the science,” Weinberg said. “The way the points and fees will be calculated is now a pretty defined standard. My gut says because of the shrinking art component and the emphasis on the science, fewer people are going to qualify for loans.”

    http://homes.yahoo.com/news/3-things-you-need-to-do-now-to-buy-a-home-next-year-002132740.html

  82. Doyle says:

    #80

    You wouldn’t say that if you met his wife…

  83. grim says:

    81 – Bet you a beer that QM has zero impact.

    The only aspect of the QM rule that would have made any real impact was the hard cutoff of 43% debt ratio, since approximately 1/5th of loans fall into that category. However, that rule has already been gutted by a loophole that allows for a loan to exceed this limit if reviewed on a case by case basis and found to be within the spirit of the QM guidelines. Since a loan above 43% DTI goes through special handling in most cases today, the net impact will likely be nil.

    What did you expect? The rules were written by mortgage bankers.

  84. grim says:

    Break it down for me!

    The APR must be within 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of the annual prime offer rate

    Huh? GSE’s only work prime and near prime, nobody is getting quoted these rates today. I’ll let a mortgage guy chime in, but from the rate sheets I’ve seen, if you are more than 150bps from prime, you aren’t getting a GSE loan. So this means that folks with shitty credit looking for FHA loans might actually pay **less money** and those with better credit will pay **more money** to compensate for it.

    the loan term cannot exceed 30 years

    I may be wrong here, but these options don’t actually exist today through the GSEs.

    points and fees cannot exceed 3% of the loan balance

    This has nothing to do with lending standards at all, and is simple consumer protection.

    and there can be no negative amortization or interest-only payments.

    These don’t exist either from the GSEs.

    So the QM rule just went ahead and outlawed a bunch of mortgages that actually don’t exist, and like I said above, the one rule that would have actually had an impact was GUTTED.

  85. Juice Box says:

    re# 81, # 83 – Don’t the GSE’s only allow 31% debt ratio today? Seems like these new rules were written with a comeback of Private-label MBS in mind. Once that sausage machine starts back up all bets are off that they won’t go way over 43% back up to 75% where it was during the bubble….Could lead to another bubble give the mouth breathers more credit and they will use it.

  86. Ragnar says:

    Why are people yearning for the good old days where the family house had one bathroom, the family had one car, the big exciting home appliance was a new refrigerator, the TV was black and white and you had 3 or 4 channels, and women stayed at home with a sewing machine?
    I think most people can still live like that on one income if they are willing to live that simply.

  87. Essex says:

    Buried inside a Congressional Budget Office report this week was this nugget: when it comes to individual income taxes, the top 40 percent of wage earners in America pay 106 percent of the taxes. The bottom 40 percent…pay negative 9 percent.

  88. grim says:

    85 – How I read it, if the PLS aren’t being funneled into the GSEs, the QM rule doesn’t apply.

  89. 1987 Condo says:

    #60…my company’s home office was there, so 8 years experience…it is Florida, so nice areas on Gulf, nice small downtown, gets sketch fast

  90. 1987 Condo says:

    #62..not sure what the deal is with that tax rate, my brother has a $500,000 house on SI and pays well over $4,000…double diBlasio…perhaps there is a tax abatement in place, perhaps it is part of a development or perhaps there is virtually no land and it is based on property size and square footage, not some crazy valuation?

  91. Fast Eddie says:

    Ragnar [86],

    Who is yearning for those days?

  92. Fast Eddie says:

    grim [84],

    So, it’s all fluff? Twice I bought a house in my life and twice I had to practically give DNA samples. And why are those with good credit targeted to pay more for an FHA loan? If ones credit is that good, who needs FHA anyway?

  93. grim says:

    Would you like to have a laugh, from the CFPB:

    http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201310_cfpb_qm-guide-for-lenders.pdf

    Notice that the 43% DTI is not considered in the list of “Mandatory Product Requirements for all QMs” section.

    And how about this gem at the bottom:

    EXTRA NOTE: Even if a loan is not a qualified mortgage, it can still be an appropriate loan. You can originate any mortgage (whether or not it is a QM) as long as you make a reasonable, good-faith determination that the consumer is able to repay the loan based on common underwriting factors. You can continue to rely on your sound, tested underwriting guidelines that you have used in the past to make loans that have generally performed well, as long as you document the information you consider.

  94. grim says:

    And, in exchange for these fantastic protections, borrowers will *LOSE THE ABILITY TO SUE* their lender.

    Nobody seems to be talking about that part…..

  95. Juice Box says:

    re # 88 – My read most of what is coming down the pike as universal and enforced by the CFPB and their examiners, they can apparently evaluate bank and non-bank mortgage originators. All players have to open their books. Will we still see fog a mirror again, should be the real question, will leverage be allowed to run amok again? If there are loopholes like you say their are Grim leverage will return and all of these new rules are just a smoke screen.

  96. xolepa says:

    Lovely downtown Flemington. What is this world coming to edition. Just went to the bank to deposit some rent money. In comes in a black man blasting a radio within his coat and lines up next to me while I am at the cash machine. I ask him kindly to turn it down as I was counting the monies.

    He mumbles audibly that I am a racist.

    I don’t want to start jokes here.

  97. joyce says:

    98
    “If people are upset about it, hang out outside the New Jersey Supreme Court,” he said. “Don’t hang out outside my house.”

    Although he’s partially correct… he’s still an @sshole.

  98. 1987 Condo says:

    #98..listen, I will flee NJ in 4-6 years (I hope)….you will either need to be CFO, COO, EVP, JJ or anyone with a State or Municipal Pension (or disability), preferably Police/Fire to live here…..!!!

  99. grim says:

    99 – Sounds like he is pissed that he was forced out of his job.

  100. 1987 Condo says:

    At lunch with ex-work associate…her kid was barely C- student at Passaic Valley HS, scraped by at Willie P….making $100,000 as a Bergen county town cop….30 years old….talking about his pension and early retirement options! LOL

  101. grim says:

    Cop and a teacher in NJ – $200k+ income

  102. joyce says:

    He was given a gun to carry daily, and the “authority” to use it… and he can’t use a staple gun.

    grim says:
    December 12, 2013 at 3:47 pm
    99 – Sounds like he is pissed that he was forced out of his job.

  103. njescapee says:

    My nephew works for NYC DEP doing an Ed Norton job is pulling in 135k.

  104. 1987 Condo says:

    #105….the Middle Class lives!

  105. 1987 Condo says:

    I crack up when my FDNY Brother, whose daughter started as a teacher at $60,000 in the district he lives in Orange County, complains about his property tax bill!!!

  106. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumping this for a family friend:

    Liquidation Auction – contents of Five Guys and Quizno’s shops –
    FIVE GUYS & QUIZNOS -Bank Ordered-

    Auction Date: Saturday, 14th December 2013 @ 11:00 am (Inspection SATURDAY 9:00 am)

    Place of Auction: 80 Leuning Street, South Hackensack, New Jersey

    Auction Details: Griddles; Refrigerators; Ovens; Deep Fryers; Juicers; Warmers; Ice Machines; Stainless Steel Sinks, Prep Tables & Metro Racks; Walk In Box; Cash Register Systems; Chairs, Tables & So Much More!

    To Learn More: Call (201)-871-1600 To Inquire About Quality Restaurant Equipment From A Five Guys & A Quiznos That Have Been Relocated For Convenience Of Sale. See You Saturday, December 14th in South Hackensack!

    AND

    RED MANGO FROZEN YOGURT SHOP

    Auction Date: Tuesday, 17th December 2013 @ 2:00 pm (Inspection TUESDAY 12:00 noon)

    Place of Auction: 43 East Ridgewood Avenue, Ridgewood, New Jersey

    Auction Details: This 1 Year Old Yogurt Shop Offers (5) Taylor Crown C713-33 2-Head w Twist Soft Serve Machines; Kolpac Walk-In Box; Ice-O-Matic Ice Machine; Touch Screen Register System & Much More.

    To Learn More: Call (201)-871-1600. Do-Not-Miss-This-Auction. Quality Equipment Rarely Seen At Public Auction. A Rite Temp Roof Top Chiller RTH-603 Will Also Be Offered. SAVE-THE-DATE!

    More details at http://www.caspert.com/auctions.php

  107. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    wonder how much the 1969 Chevrolet Camero is selling for at the auction.

    Also odd, how a auction that is mainly Bergan County surplus trucks randomly has a Camero SS as part of it.

  108. Street Justice says:

    Joyce what’s your beef with the cops?

  109. joyce says:

    Same beef as with anyone breaking the law, from private to public at all levels.

  110. Can't resist says:

    #29 grim

    “25 – Women belong barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen?”

    Reminds me of a joke.

    Why are women married in white?
    Because that is the color of kitchen appliances.

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