Will 2014 be the strongest year since the bust?

From HousingWire:

Economist: 3 major things you need to know about the 2014 housing market

No. 1: 2014 should prove to be the strongest year for housing activity since before the Great Recession.

Propelling home sales are job growth and housing affordability. The latter reflects the interplay of household income, mortgage rates and house prices. In 2013, while housing activity picked up, it was a year when job growth remained low and virtually unchanged from the previous year. Moreover, affordability, while still high, fell sharply in the second half.

Most economists expect an improved job market in 2014, with employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate continuing to decline. That jobless rate drop will reflect more of a pickup in employment than further declines in the labor force participation rate. This will be the key factor improving housing demand this year, even if mortgage rates rise and affordability declines. While the housing market tends to do especially well when the job market improves and mortgage rates decline simultaneously, that combination of events occurs only rarely.

More often, either job gains accelerate while mortgage rates rise, or job gains decline while mortgage rates drop. Typically, housing activity expands in the former case and contracts in the latter. People buy homes when their job and income prospects improve – even if it’s more expensive to do so – rather than buy when it is inexpensive to do so but they’re worried about keeping their jobs.

No. 2: Demographics should start to favor housing activity.

Reflecting the slow pace of household formations, there is an increasing pent-up demand for households. After all, most of these young adults would prefer the freedom of being on their own (and their parents really don’t want them as full-time residents, either). We estimate the economy is short by more than three million households.

If the economy expands at a faster pace this year, bringing a more rapid rate of job creation, that should translate into more households, raising housing demand. We won’t see all three million missing households return to the housing market at once. (That wouldn’t be a good thing for the housing market anyway, since that would be on top of the 1.2 million households that normally would develop this year; such a surge would swamp the existing housing supply). Beginning in 2014, the pace of household formations should accelerate to an above-trend pace for several years, pushing up housing demand.

No. 3: Mortgage availability shouldn’t worsen and may improve.

Mortgage credit isn’t nearly as easy to get as it was during the housing boom, and it shouldn’t be. Still, compared with recent years, mortgage availability has increased slightly. And reasons exist for mortgage availability to be no worse in 2014 than in the past few years. Actually, it may be somewhat easier to get a mortgage loan.

In response, mortgage lenders probably will ease lending standards to the extent possible under the QM rules to boost lending activity by increasing purchase originations. As a result, the increase in new households expected to be created this year, spurred by a stronger job market, should find that qualifying for a mortgage loan will be somewhat easier in 2014 than in prior years.

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101 Responses to Will 2014 be the strongest year since the bust?

  1. grim says:

    And this is how a lending bubble restarts, from the WaPo:

    The housing recovery is leaving minorities behind

    It’s hard to get a mortgage right now – not just relative to the free-for-all days at the height of the housing boom, but compared even to what now feels like the housing market’s last moment of “normal.” Let’s call that, say, 2001. Back then, lenders weren’t doling out loans with the gleeful abandon of the housing bubble. But they were considerably more welcoming than they are today of would-be homeowners without pristine credit.

    If we compare the housing market today to this pre-bubble moment, many people who might have qualified for mortgages by 2001 credit standards are walking away empty-handed. In some sense, their loans have gone “missing,” a casualty of today’s abnormally tight credit.

  2. grim says:

    Impressed by Lesniak’s new legislation, surprised to see this from the democrats – the backlash will be immense, since it’s arguable that this is regressive. I’d love to see the numerous transportation “agencies” eliminated, since I believe these to be huge pockets of corruption and waste. The gas tax? It needs to go up.

    From PolitickerNJ:

    LESNIAK OFFERS PLAN TO REBUILD & REPAIR STATE’S HIGHWAYS, BRIDGES AND ROADS

    Senator Raymond J. Lesniak, D-Union, on Monday offered a plan to support the rebuilding of the state’s transportation infrastructure with a three-year phase-in of an increased gas tax with a “lockbox” provision guaranteeing the funds would be used solely to rebuild and repair the state’s highways, bridges and roads. The five-cent a gallon increase each year would generate approximately $250 million in additional funds annually for the much-needed work to roadways that have been neglected for years and worn down by another harsh winter.

    An estimated 40 percent of the new revenue would come from out-of-state drivers using the state’s roads. Senator Lesniak said.

    “The state’s transportation infrastructure is collapsing,” said Senator Lesniak. “The roads have been neglected for years and the harsh winter left a landscape of potholes that are damaging and dangerous. This has a severe impact on our quality of life and the state’s economy. This plan will provide the resources needed to repair, rebuild and maintain the highways, bridges and roadways that are so important in New Jersey.”

    Senator Lesniak also proposed a companion plan to consolidate New Jersey’s different transportation agencies, introducing two bills to generate the funding and to combine the state Transportation Department, the Turnpike Authority, the Garden State Parkway and the South Jersey Transportation Authority. The second bill would create a commission to determine the best way to consolidate the agencies.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    I would suggest instead to publish the names of the 250 fattest cats in the state and politely ask for $1m each

    “The five-cent a gallon increase each year would generate approximately $250 million in additional funds “

  4. grim says:

    3 – You know you can write a check to the treasury, how about it? Always easy to spend someone else’s money. Why don’t you ask some of the golden parachute pension fat cats to give some of our money back?

  5. joyce says:

    1
    Regarding lending standards, could you imagine if the 20% down 28/36 ratios were still used? How many middle/low income people could afford the 36 back end ratio?

  6. grim says:

    From NJ Watchdog:

    ‘RETIRED’ SCHOOL CHIEF TEACHES NJ PENSION A $1.7 MILLION LESSON Investigative Report by Mark Lagerkvist

    New Jersey taxpayers and lawmakers could learn a lesson on double-dipping from Robert Mahon, a retired school chief who never really quit working.

    Mahon has collected $1.7 million in pension checks since he took early retirement in 1995 as superintendent of Ocean Township schools in Monmouth County.

    Thanks to a loophole in pension law, retiree Mahon has still been making the rounds on public school payrolls for most of the past 19 years.

    Drawing six-figure executive pay on top of his $104,621 annual pension, Mahon has worked as an interim, or temporary superintendent at 10 different Jersey Shore school districts – including Manasquan, Spring Lake Heights, Barnegat, Colts Neck, Red Bank, Little Egg Harbor, Bradley Beach, Farmingdale and Brielle, in reverse order.

    At age 78, Mahon’s latest post-retirement stop is the Asbury Park school district, which pays him $605 a day – the equivalent of roughly $150,000 a year.

    “A district has to have a superintendent,” said Mahon. “Whether I’m here in an interim capacity or someone else, they’re paying for a superintendent.”

    The question is whether the New Jersey public retirement system – facing a $52 billion deficit – can afford to pay big pensions to retirees who are still working in high-paying public jobs.

  7. anon (the good one) says:

    as a matter of fact i send one check to trenton and one to dc every year – just like you.

    but it is time for Fat Cats to pay their fair share. we pay taxes for them and their corporations (GE?), we bail them out during financial crisis, we fight wars for them, we invade Iraq for them

  8. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    OT alert.

    When Obama loses The Guardian, or at least Tisdall, that’s bad.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/17/opinion/crimea-vote-putin-obama/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

    In fact, Tisdall has been hammering Obama in the UK op eds on what he calls our “hypocrisy” and our feckless handling of Putin (who knew Fabian’s favorite rag had a hawk?)

    Well framed as the international hypocrisy issue is, Simon is, IMHO, ignoring a domestic consideration that is definitely lurking in this debate: Crimea is a secession event and Obama can’t be seen to endorse or even allow such precedents. Not when the topic has never been hotter here. Indeed, “self determination” is a shibboleth you won’t hear uttered from the left side of the aisle inside the Beltway for years to come and if the subject of other countries comes up, you’ll hear “well, that was different . . . “

  9. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    There’s that term again, the one leftists love to use but refuse to define.

  10. Ottoman says:

    Prudential had no trouble spending NJ taxpayer money when it took Christie’s offer of $250 million to move its offices down the street. Panasonic’s $100 million to move 9 miles and $81 million for Goya to move 2 miles also came out of your pocket.

    Re: 6 – I know teachers are not allowed to collect pensions if they take jobs during retirement, don’t know if the rules are different for superintendents or if he predates that law. New Jersey shouldn’t have reelected Christie if they wanted to get rid of double dipping. He gave us all plenty of proof during his first term he was all for it.

    “3 – You know you can write a check to the treasury, how about it? Always easy to spend someone else’s money. Why don’t you ask some of the golden parachute pension fat cats to give some of our money back?”

  11. grim says:

    10 – Near-state competition is a sucker’s play. The fact that NJ/NY/PA/CT compete for the same companies does nothing to improve the local areas, and seldom results in net new jobs. We’re all idiots for doing it. Meanwhile states further outside our area are the beneficiaries of the exodus, while we’re too busy fighting over the scraps. Hell, a well played bluff could net a CEO millions in benefits, just wait until everyone else realizes this ol’ sham.

  12. 30 year realtor says:

    #1 – Lately I feel as though there is a shortage of first time buyers. Currently have a listing in Waldwick priced at $339,900. House is 1800 square feet in move in condition. Kitchen is not new but functional, old pink bath in good condition, hardwood flooring, new furnace, new roof, not perfect but a functional home in a solid community.

    Showings have been solid but the numbers are not overwhelming. There is little competition in comparable condition in this price range. Only 2 offers so far and both are minimum downpayment FHA buyers. Initial offers were not strong indicating these first time buyers in a market with low inventory did not fear competition.

    House will be under contract in the range of the asking price by the end of the week. The final sale price will meet my expectation but the number of showings and offers is lower than I anticipated. Also surprised by the lack of an offer with higher downpayment and conventional financing.

    I am not feeling a strong Spring market. What about you?

  13. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [10] ottoman

    You spent it, now you’re complaining? This gets laid at the feet of the NJ voter: if your guy voted yea, your fingerprints are on it.

  14. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [11] grim,

    There is supposed to be interstate cooperation on Econ dev in this region but that’s a visage on the backstabbing going on here for some time. I remember Rendell and Corzine pledging cooperation and Rendell was poaching NJ business every chance he got.

  15. grim says:

    12 – Interesting, but I need to weigh in on Waldwick, since it’s a town I don’t claim to understand (does anyone?). Ask anyone affiliated with my office, or most others that know me, and they’ll have heard my Waldwick rant.

    Waldwick is a town prime for tear down gentrification, yet it never happened. It’s geographic location (for those who don’t know, it is surrounded by: Wyckoff, Allendale, Saddle River (the expensive one), Ho Ho Kus, Ridgewood, and Midland Park) strongly suggests this to be a possibility.

    I don’t feel that Waldwick is the recipient of any near-town value shoppers. Folks looking at the low-end in Ridgewood will generally not consider a higher-value property at a similar price in Waldwick. Midland Park, however, does fit into this model, and I regularly see clients opt to buy in MP, but *NEVER* even remotely consider Waldwick.

    I’ve never had anyone even be able to articulate why they wouldn’t consider Waldwick – it’s almost like there is some kind of stigma associated with it. Odd since historically, of this grouping, Allendale would had been considered the boondocks hick town, and that skipped anything in the middle and jumped right up to affluent (arguably, so did Upper Saddle River).

    If you played the kid’s tv show song: Which one of these things doesn’t belong – the answer would be Waldwick.

    Were Waldwick to merge with any of it’s neighbors and take their names, property values would immediately skyrocket.

    Waldwick’s HS rankings are in the top 3rd, which aren’t “that bad” in the general sense, but folks seem to be relatively unimpressed compared to most neighboring school districts.

    Granted my client list creates somewhat of a bias, but in the past 5 years I’ve shown only 1 house in Waldwick. I would say I’ve shown hundreds when you add the neighboring towns.

    IMHO – I wouldn’t at all use Waldwick as a barometer of anything in the general area. It’s either the biggest sucker’s play around, or the most underrated town in Bergen County – nothing in the middle. Hell, if this area regionalized their schools, this town would be a jackpot.

    What if I asked you to compare say, Waldwick buyer activity with Paramus?

  16. yome says:

    Inrease gas tax but eliminate tolls in the GSP. We pay so much in tolls already to get hit with another gas tax

  17. joyce says:

    The politicians assured the public, at the time, that the GSP tolls would go away after the initial construction bonds had been paid off.

    Nothing to worry about

  18. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [16] yome,

    Gas is one of NJs shadow exports. Out of staters who travel the corridor with some frequency tank up in NJ before leaving. If NJ prices become comparable to DE or PA, that will sting in SoJo.

    OTOH, if it meant getting rid of the ridiculous self service ban, I’m interested.

  19. grim says:

    Balance the gas tax increase with a self-serve option, which would offset the increase in cost.

  20. 30 year realtor says:

    Grim, Waldwick?…This is my first ever listing in Waldwick. Lived in town for 16 years but since my kids didn’t go to school here or participate in local sports activities, etc I never got a true flavor for being a part of the community.

    On a housing price to school system quality ratio Waldwick offers strong value for the dollar. Housing stock is modest with mostly smaller homes. Small shopping district but no true downtown area. Small town with little snob appeal.

    My feeling is that few buyers begin their search with Waldwick as their dream town. Through a process of elimination they decide they can accept it.

  21. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    A five cent increase would put NJ within 3.5 cents of Delaware, which has other cost benefits that make it competitive. Unless I am in NJ, I fill up in only two places: Costco or Wilmington, DE.

  22. 30 year realtor says:

    As a guy who has specialized in REO for the last 25 years…if I haven’t had a listing in your town, that is a good sign that you live in a desirable community. On that note I just received my 2nd property assignment ever in Livingston. Second one in less than a month.

  23. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    when ever I hear the word lock box I equate it with taxpayers getting screwed. I’m with Joyce fine you can have your gas tax but you are eliminating tolls and the stupid self serve restriction. Other wise no deal.

  24. Michael says:

    The man has a point!

    Substitute the term monarchies for corporations. Substitute the term ceo for king. Substitute vps, presidents, and other management for the term nobles or aristocrats. Hell, throw all the senators in there too with the nobles, since they provide the corporations with helping hands. You will see that the revolutions of the late 1700s and early 1800’s to rid the world of an unfair system, known as monarchies, was for vain. We ended up with almost the same thing, except now you are left with a feeling of being fine with it, that this type of government is different, because you think your vote matters. You feel as if, no one is getting over on you, because you have the right to vote. Too bad it’s all smoke and mirrors.

    Peasants going to war for their king is no different than citizens going to war for corporations. The same arguments used today, to defend corporations and their ceos, are the same arguments made by peasants in support of the king. They said things like, the king provides protection, or things like, the king provides land for us (today-they claim corporation provides jobs for us), as reason for supporting an unfair system. Best was when they got religion involved, kings started claiming the right to rule was given to them by god, this led to absolute power.

    Try to think outside the box, and you will realize what I’m saying. I’m not saying to change the system, because I don’t have a better alternative. But to sit here and not think there is a huge part of the population getting shafted for the benefit of a minority, you are smoking the crack. Making fun of someone attacking the unfair advantages of the corporate class, is no different than one peasant making fun another peasant for attacking the unfair advantage of the king and his nobility.

    anon (the good one) says:
    March 18, 2014 at 8:07 am
    as a matter of fact i send one check to trenton and one to dc every year – just like you.

    but it is time for Fat Cats to pay their fair share. we pay taxes for them and their corporations (GE?), we bail them out during financial crisis, we fight wars for them, we invade Iraq for them

  25. grim says:

    30yr – there is an easy way to get a read on this:

    Gary – why don’t you look in Waldwick instead of Ho Ho Kus or Wyckoff?

  26. Michael says:

    This is so wrong. Sad part, this news will lead to the common govt worker getting blamed that they are overpaid, or have a golden pension. The regular govt worker does not get a great pension, but after people read this type of article, they will now attack the pension system that barely provides a regular govt worker with a livable income at retirement. Unless you are a judge, police officer, fireman, or a top dog at some government agency, you are not getting a good pension.

    These top dogs are ruthless. Guy is 78, and still taking away good jobs from regular people, when he has been collecting a pension since 95. His excuse, someone has to do it.

    “grim says:
    March 18, 2014 at 8:01 am
    From NJ Watchdog:

    ‘RETIRED’ SCHOOL CHIEF TEACHES NJ PENSION A $1.7 MILLION LESSON Investigative Report by Mark Lagerkvist”

  27. Michael says:

    26- Mistake. This guy is not taking away jobs from regular people. A superintendent, is not a job a regular person can get. So in a way the guy is right, some fat cat has to do it, so why not him.

  28. grim says:

    How about we start with campaign and lobby reform, instead of destroying businesses? Since that’s the real root of the problem.

  29. 30 year realtor says:

    #25 Grim – I believe Waldwick would be an ideal town for Gary. Guy in my office just built and sold 2 new construction houses in Waldwick for mid $700’s. Homes were on large lots, over $3200 square feet and well appointed. My opinion on Gary’s search is that he should be staying out of top tier towns because he is not sending anyone to public school. I see a guy who wants more distance from urban locations, a bit more property, more living space and a more modern home.

    You are asking him to compare apples to oranges. Perhaps a Waldwick, Midland Park, Westwood, Washington Twp comparison would be more realistic.

  30. 1987 Condo says:

    #19….not so sure…was in NYC when they went to self serve….all that happened was that the price that I paid for “full serve” became the self serve price and the self serve was jacked up …

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    Grim/30 year,

    I would absolutely consider Waldwick and have had it on my radar…. no doubt about it. I haven’t seen anything lately but will look again. Work has me tied up but ask away or I’ll try to comment later.

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    My opinion on Gary’s search is that he should be staying out of top tier towns because he is not sending anyone to public school. I see a guy who wants more distance from urban locations, a bit more property, more living space and a more modern home.

    You are asking him to compare apples to oranges. Perhaps a Waldwick, Midland Park, Westwood, Washington Twp comparison would be more realistic.

    You nailed it. More later.

  33. Juice Box says:

    This story has been making the rounds on the missing airliner MH370, and might correlate the eyewitness story of the oil rig worker who spotted a “burning” plane at high altitude.

    https://plus.google.com/app/basic/stream/z13cv1gohsmbv5jmy221vrfyiz3vdhbop04

  34. Michael says:

    Waldwick’s problem, surrounded by uber wealthy towns. Even though there is nothing wrong with the town, the surrounding towns consider Waldwick the armpit of that area. This creates value for Waldwick real estate.

    Good advice for fast eddie, if you want good value, then go to waldwick. If you want to pay top dollar per sq ft, then continue looking in places like hohokus.

  35. Michael says:

    I agree, eliminate lobbying and pay to play, and we will see a return to a time when corporations actually took care of and cared for their community. Current state is a joke, with no allegiance to any community or country, just allegiance to profit.

    grim says:
    March 18, 2014 at 9:24 am
    How about we start with campaign and lobby reform, instead of destroying businesses? Since that’s the real root of the problem.

  36. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    how about deregulation and reforming the tax code both of which pick winners and losers. Fix those two and the lobbying and campaign finance reform issue goes away

  37. Juice Box says:

    As I said F Bergen County. I was up at my brothers over priced POS over the weekend. overpriced small lots and the commute to NYC isn’t all that great.

    As far as Walwick lots homes right on Rt 17. Look and see hurry up and get your checkbook! Only 539k and a cool 12k in taxes too to listen to the 24 hour rush of Big Rigs, your kids will one day want to drive a big rig too!

    Google Street view is taken from Route 17!

    https://maps.google.com/maps?q=141+E+Prospect+St,+Waldwick,+NJ+07463&hl=en&ll=41.01111,-74.107087&spn=0.000821,0.001206&sll=41.011097,-74.107389&layer=c&cbp=13,287.12,,0,0.4&cbll=41.01111,-74.107087&hnear=141+E+Prospect+St,+Waldwick,+New+Jersey+07463&t=h&z=20&panoid=L4WPsgjh95xsr1ef2rcwlA

    141 E Prospect St, Waldwick, NJ 07463

  38. Street Justice says:

    Funny condominium/townhome story….

    My MIL lives in a townhome complex. HOA was concerned about the snow on the roofs this winter along with the ice dams. They hired a firm who diligently shoveled all the roofs and removed the ice so that there weren’t any roof leaks.

    Many people had roof leaks anyway.

    Now that the snow is receding…there appears to be plenty of roof shingles appearing out of the ground from beneath the melting snow banks…

  39. xolepa says:

    (37) Convenient and nothing else. I avoid that area of NJ like the plague.

  40. grim says:

    39 – Sounds like a $100,000 snafu, special assessment time.

  41. joyce says:

    35-36
    If the govt has the power to do XYZ, the representatives will auction it off via the legal and illegal ways of bribery. Remove the power, what incentive would they have to offer/accept bribes?

  42. xolepa says:

    (39) Have any idea of the pitch on those roofs?

  43. Bystander says:

    #15,

    Grim, this answer seems bunk. If recovery is full bore steam like you claim then don’t cherry pick reasons why one town is not experiencing a great spring. 30 yr is pretty unbias about what he sees. Perhaps the reason is a simple, investors and buyers from last year caused sellers to overprice their listings. Jobs and wages are not increasing despite media lies and first time buyers are priced out. This has been well documented. Do you really believe it won’t catch up at some point? Only people who bought years ago in NJ, can afford homes. Entry point is way too high for most.

  44. grim says:

    44 – My point was simple, if I needed to pick a single datum to base a forecast on, it wouldn’t be Waldwick.

  45. Bystander says:

    Grim,

    I did not get that 30 yr was basing the spring season just on Waldwick. It sounded like his latest example. I assume he has listings in high end towns as well. I’m sure he could clarify.Regarding job market, lots of call but none have been fruitful. Pay is much lower than I make now. What happened to hiring talent away? I feel like being employed for 12 years straight with no gap, might lead to some IB to trying to get me since I smell better than 8 mo. unemployed person. No dice. Recruiters keep calling back to see if I am unemployed yet so can pay lower rate. I also had strange FT call. I applied a month ago for lead IT PM. Was told that 200k was base..great. I got call again yesterday for same job and person said 75k-90k with possible bonus?? What?

  46. grim says:

    North Jersey January contracts were up slightly year over year, February contracts were down slightly year over year. Both low volume months, but if you take both months together, we’re in-line with last year, which is still strong from a contracts perspective.

    However, inventory is the lowest in recent history, which makes for a situation where we’re going to be hard pressed to increase much more from a volume perspective. To put it into perspective, we’re heading into this spring with 10-20% less inventory (depending on area) than last year – this is a huge difference. I find it amazing that we were able to see a yoy gain in January contracts despite this. Should inventory rise in the next two months – I would look at that as a positive, not a negative, as it will enable higher volumes.

    Still way too early to tell, IMHO. Don’t shoot me for saying it, but the weather has really been abysmal for listings/showings. Now that the weather has broke, I’d say we’re going to get a pretty good read on where the spring market is going to go in the next 30 days.

  47. Libtard in Union says:

    How about we start with campaign and lobby reform, instead of destroying businesses? Since that’s the real root of the problem.

    Yup…and everything else is the typical partisan tit for tat.

    To blame the double-dipping on a single party is almost as silly as saying the reason the local firefighter isn’t going to get his guaranteed 125K per year for 30 years pension after paying in $8K per year for 25 years is because the state didn’t make their payments. You could get rid of all of the double dippers and make them pay it back with a 3 times penalty and there still ain’t no way that someone who contributes $200K to a system gets $3750K out of it. The lefties conveniently leave math out of their arguments as do the eloquent union speech writers.

  48. Libtard in Union says:

    Unless your structure is in danger of collapse, raking snow off of your roof is absolutely a no no. Cheaper to replace the gutters and fascia boards in the Spring then to replace the roof. Yet I know a lot of morons in Montclair that actually paid people to go up and destroy their roofs. On my multi, I had $375 worth of gutter/soffet/fascia board repairs on my nearly flat rubber roof. Big deal. The gutter was falling off of the house anyway.

  49. Libtard in Union says:

    I would think that the limited inventory would cause more dramatic price increases, regardless of a drop in contract volume. In GR, houses are selling like hotcakes and at prices that make Gary cringe. Most houses are selling in a week or two. So I expect sales volume to drop, but home prices to increase quite rapidly unfortunately. This should also keep rentals prices up as demand for rentals will continue to increase. The company that converted that giant old warehouse in East Orange by exit 148 into luxury lofts knows it.

  50. grim says:

    I’m going to run heater cables through my gutters and downspouts this summer.

    Should be a simple project, maybe $150 in materials total.

    I don’t care about the snow/ice on the roof, I just don’t want it in the gutters. If you can keep the gutters clear, you won’t dam.

    IMHO – folks that put the wires on their roof, and not their gutters, are wasting their time, as the water will just freeze up once it hits the aluminum, blocking the gutters.

    If my front gutter fell off just a few weeks ago, it would have killed someone.

  51. joyce says:

    what you crave

    Brooklyn men sue NYPD cops for trying to take their White Castle sliders and getting arrested when they refused
    http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/brooklyn/brooklyn-men-sue-nypd-white-castle-article-1.1722336#ixzz2wL0AYKHl

  52. Michael says:

    49- Libtard, are you underestimating the power of compounding? Nothing wrong with a pension system. My bro-in-law works at ernst & young and has a pension. If the state pays their share the past 20 years, the pension system would be fine. Think of a 401k, if the company wasn’t paying their matching contribution for 20 years, don’t you think that would be a problem. Pension system is no different. Pensions are not an evil thing, the only thing evil is the government forcing (against the law for state workers to not pay into pension) these state workers to pay into a pension, and at the same time, not contribute their end. So basically, the state has been literally robbing the workers, who are forced to pay into a pension that will go bankrupt if the state doesn’t pay their share. Think of the pension contribution as an extra tax on the state workers (that are currently young), that will get screwed down the road.

    “To blame the double-dipping on a single party is almost as silly as saying the reason the local firefighter isn’t going to get his guaranteed 125K per year for 30 years pension after paying in $8K per year for 25 years is because the state didn’t make their payments. You could get rid of all of the double dippers and make them pay it back with a 3 times penalty and there still ain’t no way that someone who contributes $200K to a system gets $3750K out of it. The lefties conveniently leave math out of their arguments as do the eloquent union speech writers.”

  53. grim says:

    lib

    Glen Ridge Inventory
    Feb 2013 – 34 – Avg LP $633,525
    Feb 2014 – 23 – Avg LP $731,770

    Glen Ridge Contracts
    Feb 2013 – 13 – Avg. Dom 85
    Feb 2014 – 8 – Avg. Dom 43

  54. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [53] grim,

    I’m doing the same. If you happen upon a kit or website you like, please share.

  55. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [50] Joyce,

    Prepare for a surfeit of dissembling from Jay Carney if these should come up.

  56. 1987 Condo says:

    #56….Pensions….we were at 100% funded around 2000, we just had to put money in Treasuries and we would actually be ok….we have had terrible performance..see link for article….here are some snippets:

    New Jersey’s underfunding of its pension contributions is not new; it goes back to at least 2001-2002 when the state had actually achieved a 100% funding level for its pensions. (See chart below). In fact, the fully funded status was cited as the reason for reduced contributions. Underfunding, however, continued through 3 different administrations, both Republican and Democrat, even after actuarial funding levels dropped below 100% in 2003. One point to note: despite a long history of reducing payments below that needed to maintain stable pension funding levels, and seeing reserves reduced to $69 billion in 2009 (from $85.4 billion at the start of the decade), ending reserves still covered that year’s pension payments to retirees by 10.37 times)

    Besides increasing benefit terms to retirees over the years, the other contributor to New Jersey’s low funding ratio was erratic investment performance, led by large investment losses in 2001, 2002, 2008 & 2009. These losses offset over 75% of the investment gains of $35.6 billion from 2003 through 2007 when stock markets were in their heyday.

    http://www.hjsims.com/news-views/state-city-pension-funding-a-contrarian-view/#.UyiOgTaPLIU

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    Inventory is dead. Nothing. We’re almost into April and it’s a f.ucking wasteland. The dead cat bounce is over. We’re at ocean bottom interest rates and no inventory with nothing to sell. Why? For the 1564th time, people are f.ucked. They can’t sell so they’re paying their bills and surviving. That’s it. There’s nothing else to it.

  58. joyce says:

    60
    I didn’t read the link yet, but was wondering if it mentioned if the State has “borrowed” from the reserves? To restate, is the amount in the pension fund’s reserve actually there or more IOU’s?

  59. Street Justice says:

    You do that, and you probably won’t ever need them again. I guarantee it.

    After I bought my generator, I haven’t had a single power outage. Not even for a second. It usually goes out for at least a little while a few times a year.

    My boss, bought this huge snowblower with tank treads and everything. Since then, we’ve not even had flurries.

    53.grim says:
    March 18, 2014 at 1:32 pm
    I’m going to run heater cables through my gutters and downspouts this summer.

    Should be a simple project, maybe $150 in materials total.

    I don’t care about the snow/ice on the roof, I just don’t want it in the gutters. If you can keep the gutters clear, you won’t dam.

  60. Ragnar says:

    Facts about the government taking over the economy from a guy lefties were loving around the time of Oblamer’s re-election, Nate Silver (who I think is a pretty straight shooter).
    It’s bad news when 40% of the economy is government, and the big growth is driven by robbing Peter to pay Paul.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-is-driving-growth-in-government-spending/

    I wonder what the chart for NJ would look like.

  61. Libtard in Union says:

    On pensions Michael. It’s not about compounding nor is it about the company match. When you pay out for life base on 60-80% of earnings made during the last 3 to 5 years of service where you allow the worker to work as much OT as possible to juice his pension. And their annual contribution ranged from 6 to 10% of income. It simply can’t add up. Break out a calculator and do the math. Then share with us your magic math. Unless you hire three people for every one retiring, the ponzi breaks. All of the contribution and withdrawal information are in the NJ treasury sight. And none of this accounts for their lifetime of medical coverage which is spiraling out of control. I would trade my 401K with 100% up to 4% of my salary for half of the guaranteed retirement benefits of our teachers, policemen and firefighters. And I’m not attacking them. I am attacking their benefits which were built up to levels that are unsustainable even without the state raids on them.

    Just give me one equation that works and plug in some numbers. Do it once and I’ll never utter the P word again. You won’t though, because you can’t. You’ll never see the math displayed when you see those articles crafted by our public servants that say we are attacking them or don’t respect them. They too don’t share the details since it would make the private sector wretch if they knew what our elected crooks promised them. And don’t forget. The policemen and firemen can retire at 45 with full pension benefits. Then they can join the private sector as consultants and collect their insane pensions as well as a paycheck and have their healthcare and that of their spouses covered. Most with no deductibles or copays.

  62. Libtard in Union says:

    Rags…good article. Someone linked it earlier. Someone really needs to dig into the pension arguments. If I was hospitalized, I think I would fill my spare time doing it.

    And I agree with Mr. Justice. The moment you install those gutter heaters, temperatures won’t drop below freezing. Though I did choose the correct year to purchase snow tires apparently.

  63. joyce says:

    65
    You know what always bugged me. In addition to the built in OT that police have in their contracts, they work as security in & out of uniform for private companies. And since our heroes are “never truly off-duty”, anything that happens in front of them in their security role could turn into something much worse.

  64. grim says:

    And since our heroes are “never truly off-duty”, anything that happens in front of them in their security role could turn into something much worse.

    I love this one, so I’ll bring it up again, but technically the boys in blue have no legal “duty to protect.”

    Or maybe I’ll share the story about the buddy of mine that got a shake down from the local PD who decided they needed to provide “event security” without any kind of contract, and expected to be fully paid, in cash, at the end of the day. When he told them to go screw, they showed up at his house and kicked down the door.

    Idiots, but I hear they settled, I believe my buddy is set for life now.

  65. joyce says:

    68
    grim,

    I remember that story, crazy. I didn’t remember that there was a suit/settlement though. Taxpayer funds, of course, correct?

  66. grim says:

    Of course.

  67. joyce says:

    Qualified Immunity… what’s that employment perk worth?

    (Won’t even get into the ‘absolute immunity’ that prosecutors/judges have, except to say that who bestowed that privilege on them… well, themsevles of course)

  68. Ragnar says:

    These days, the government demands “event security” payments from every person who just wakes up and goes to work. They only kick your door down if you don’t pay.

  69. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Joyce more than you know. I used to get rides home in cruisers after leaving the bar in a certain Bergen county town because I was friends with the chief of polic and a few.patrolman. When I was in my 20s it was cool. Now in hindsight the ridiculous perks the kings men and their extended circle get is insane. The sad part is it has even gotten worse when I was taking advantage in the early 90s I could post some really scary stuff patrolman and officers have pulled and got away with that I know but that would get me into some trouble.

  70. 1987 Condo says:

    Another excerpt from Pension Article:

    State and city pension funds are not insolvent. Pension funding for states and cities is under a microscope these days, with predictions that unfunded liabilities are going to lead to wide scale defaults and bankruptcies of municipal debt. These predictions are overblown, by people who have not followed state and city fiscal trends over decades, through 6 recessions, as I have. Here are some facts that informed investors need to know about public pension funding:

    FACT: In the 1950s through 1970s, pension funding levels were the same or lower than today’s levels, without rampant municipal bond defaults or bankruptcies;
    FACT: The Pew Center on States, authors of a definitive study on pension funding and a major critic of unfunded liabilities, points out that average state pension funding was at 84% in 2008, higher than the average in the 1970s, and a “relatively positive outcome, because most experts advise at least an 80 percent funding level”
    FACT: Even states with some of the weakest pension funding rates, like New Jersey, had enough assets at the end of 2009 to cover their pension costs by 10 times or more.

    This last point is crucial, because pension funding is not well understood by the general public. An unfunded pension liability will not, by itself, lead to immediate financial crisis or insolvency, except in the extremely rare case where a municipality has not set aside any reserves at all for paying retirement costs. That is not to say that pension funding is not a problem; clearly, states and cities need to take action on pension funding to avoid rapidly rising costs that will need to be paid by future generations. It does mean, however, that unfunded pension liabilities have occurred in the past and will again occur in the future. And it is clear from an historical review that unfunded liabilities do not mean budgetary insolvency and default

  71. joyce says:

    73
    Pain,

    I’m not sure if anything you’d mention would or wouldn’t surprise me at this point. This function within our system, just like most others, is completely broken beyond repair.

  72. Michael says:

    74- condo….exactly! I guess some people rather fall for the bs, and believe politicians like Christie, who use the pension propaganda as a tool to push their agenda.

  73. joyce says:

    Michael,
    You solved libtard’s math problem yet?

  74. Michael says:

    I shouldn’t laugh, cause I’m paying for this crap, but sometimes you can’t help but laugh. I love paying a patrol man 150,000 a year to patrol the mean streets of Wayne. Only 3,000 a week. But to be fair, if we only paid this cop 50,000, you can bet that the robbery rates will go up, since the man in blue will become corrupted like a cop in Mexico. Probably will have to bribe the officer on a traffic stop or be thrown in jail.

    “Taxpayer funds, of course, correct?”

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume in the dark says:

    [78] Michael,

    I dispute the correlation btwn police pay me. Many towns here don’t have police yet yet theres no crime to speak of.

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume in the dark says:

    Argh. S/b btwn police pay and crime. Hate this phone.

  77. Michael says:

    Joyce, how should I come up with a formula to account for compounding and also for the people thar die a year after retirement? It’s not a simple math problem.

    Also, libtard is leaving out the fact that a pension is never meant to be paid out all at once. It’s a continuous process, with new workers supporting the old. Yes, similar to a Ponzi scheme, but it’s not, due to the fact that not everyone will ever be allowed to cash out at the same time. The sad truth is, at some point, if the pension just followed an s&p 500 index fund, on a dollar cost averaging strategy, the fund should eventually be able to pay for itself with no contribution from the state or workers. Obviously, corruption got its hands all over the big fat pie! You know since the fund is not in the surplus, like it’s logically supposed to be, it’s obvious someone had their hand in the cookie jar, and it’s not the state worker making 45,000 a year or the teacher topping out at 90 to a 100,000.

  78. joyce says:

    78
    Michael,
    If cops were outright stealing from people, who would they report the crimes to? I bet crime statistics would plummet.

  79. joyce says:

    81
    Michael,
    As nice as possible, you’re deflecting. Similar to your non-answer of Comrade’s question regarding “fair” share.

    You claim a pension plan should be able to pay for itself without contributions from the state or workers. Keep rereading that sentence until it sinks in how wrong you are.

    You claim the fund is logically supposed to always be in surplus. Please attempt to explain that gem as well?

  80. Michael says:

    I think you guys missed my sarcasm in the post. I do not love paying a patrolman in my safe town 150,000 a year to patrol my streets. I then went on to hypothesize the effect of lowering the salary from 150,000 to 50,000, and concluded that the cop would end up being as corrupt as a cop in Mexico. So basically can’t win. Lower the salary, and the cops will help end up helping the thieves rob my house by being the lookout and ears of the operation. Overpay, and the high salary acts as a check vs corruption. Cop will be scared to lose pension and insane high pay, so less likely to be corrupted.

  81. Michael says:

    83- In time, theoretically, that fund should eventually pay for itself. It might sound crazy, but follow the logic. Investments grow right? So in time, the fund should be able to grow to a point where the fund becomes self sufficient, that is, if it’s being invested on a dollar cost averaging basis, it will eventually reach a point where the fund can pay for itself. No different than a individual retirement fund, meaning once you hit that magic # in your retirement fund, you can retire. Same thing applies to a massive pension fund. Tell me why not? Oh, because every dirty bastard eyes light up as soon as they see the fund is in the positive. People like Whitman look at that extra surplus as theirs. That’s where it all went wrong, but you know what, blame that damn worker for having a pension. That’s the problem!

  82. joyce says:

    84
    I didn’t miss your sarcasm; I just don’t agree. Let’s overpay our politicians (check), a position also with a lot of authority & power… so they won’t be corrupt, right? right? right?

  83. joyce says:

    85
    I’ll attempt to respond to myself then…

    “You claim a pension plan should be able to pay for itself without contributions from the state or workers. Keep rereading that sentence until it sinks in how wrong you are.”
    If you assume a static count of workforce (doesn’t happen in reality, govt’s grow only), if you assume no increase in benefits (ditto), if you assume the initial contributions were overly generous as well as realistic investment assumptions… hypothetically it’s possible over a VERY long period of time.

    “You claim the fund is logically supposed to always be in surplus. Please attempt to explain that gem as well?”
    The plan was never in surplus; it appeared that way due to 8 or 9% annual investment plan assumptions in perpetuity. You’re such a fan of compounding… but I don’t think you truly understand exponential growth.

    To answer libtard’s question, all you had to do was take for example one cop… with contributions of X, growth percentage Y over 20 years… with payouts of Z over 30+ years, etc etc. Show a realistic example.

  84. Michael says:

    87- where in the formula do I account for the people who die around retirement?

  85. Michael says:

    Like I said, it’s not a simple formula as you and libtard state. I don’t know the formula.

  86. Michael says:

    The plan was in surplus from day 1. It’s a Ponzi scheme type setup, where not everyone can cash out all at once. When the pension system was created, how else do you think the first retirees with no contributions got paid?

    “The plan was never in surplus”

  87. I read the threads here lately, and all I want to do is fall on a steak knife.

  88. joyce says:

    Michael,
    Do understand that you’re labeling these funds as both (hypothetically) self-sustainable with ultimately zero contributions as well as ponzi scheme type setups and offering no numbers to back this up?

    “where in the formula do I account for the people who die around retirement?”
    If you understood arithmetic, life expectancy would be part of the formula.

  89. Ben says:

    In time, theoretically, that fund should eventually pay for itself. It might sound crazy, but follow the logic. Investments grow right?

    Michael, how did this investment grow? It’s been over 5 years.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/06/nj_state_pension_funds_invest.html

    New Jersey government retirees picked up a $180 million stake in the troubled Lehman Brothers investment firm today, as state investment officials continued to try to profit from the cash woes of banking giants stung by the subprime mortgage crisis.

    These funds are horribly managed and half the time, you have brokers ripping them off with obscene fees. The pension is insolvent and unsustainable. That’s every public worker is forced into participation. It’s their paychecks that keep the charade going.

  90. Libturd at home says:

    I’m too tired to do the math for you tonight Mike. Maybe if I have some free time tomorrow. And trust me, I’m not attacking the worker. If pensions were so easy to sustain, then the private sector would have never gotten rid of them.

  91. Michael says:

    It is not a true Ponzi scheme because not everyone can cash out at the same time, causing the fund to crash. It doesn’t become self-sustainable over night. I said based on the strategy of dollar cost averaging in an index fund that traces the s&p 500, eventually it will become self-sustainable. It’s logical based math. At least I think it is.

    With the money instead going towards shady investments and everyone at the top sticking their hand in the cookie jar, no wonder the fund is not solvent.

    “Michael,
    Do understand that you’re labeling these funds as both (hypothetically) self-sustainable with ultimately zero contributions as well as ponzi scheme type setups and offering no numbers to back this up?”

  92. Ragnar says:

    Pension accounting is at best an art of making intelligent guesses. Even with extensive disclosures, it’s difficult to catch people playing accounting games. My guess is that government accounting and distortion is much worse.

  93. Fast Eddie Fan says:

    Brutal market. Low inventory, horrific houses. We bought last summer under duress. Couldn’t wait forever, couldn’t stand to continue paying rent. Bought a much less than perfect house on a nice piece of property in Middletown NJ for a price higher that what I thought was fair. Zestimates from Zillow have been going down ever since and we are already underwater. Affordability- HA! I’m hating the house less than when we moved and feeling less buyer’s remorse only because I see what else is for sale out there- even worse places. I calm myself by realizing that I have no control over the housing market and it’s just our bad luck to have to enter now. At least we don’t live in a war torn country. Trying to keep things in perspective.

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