Shadows no longer looming over market

From Investors Business Daily:

Housing Recovery Boosted By Drop In Shadow Inventory

The housing market got more evidence that it’s on the road to recovery Thursday with new data showing a sharp decline in “shadow inventory,” or seriously delinquent homes that have not yet been listed for sale.

According to a report from CoreLogic (CLGX), 1.7 million homes in January were still lurking in the wings as “shadow inventory” vs. 2.2 million in the same month a year earlier, a decline of nearly 23%.

The value of January’s shadow inventory was down $70 billion from a year ago to $254 billion, the report said.

Meanwhile, the number of homes in some stage of foreclosure was down 35% nationwide in February vs. a year earlier, to 752,000 from 1.2 million.

Completed foreclosures, or the number of homes lost to foreclosure, fell 15% in February from last year’s same month to 43,000. Since September 2008, when the financial crisis began, 4.9 million homes have been lost to foreclosure.

“Although there is good news that completed foreclosures are trending lower, the bigger news is the impressive decline in the foreclosure and shadow inventories,” stated Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.

Such distressed, pending-supply inventory, when it hits the market, typically sells at substantial discount, often dragging down values nearby.

Every state, Fleming said, showed “double-digit, year-over-year declines in foreclosure inventory, which is reflected in the $70 billion decline in the shadow inventory.”

The stock of seriously delinquent homes and the foreclosure rate “are back to levels last seen in the final quarter of 2008,” added Anand Nallathambi, CoreLogic’s CEO.

This entry was posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to Shadows no longer looming over market

  1. grim says:

    Unless you call this one a shadow… From HousingWire:

    1 in 3 homes is unaffordable and a bubble is forming

    More than half the homes currently on the market in seven major American metros are currently unaffordable for local residents, and one-third of homes for sale are unaffordable by historic standards.

    That’s the conclusion from a Zillow (Z) analysis of income, mortgage and home value data in the fourth quarter of 2013, which puts to question the regular industry claim that housing is more affordable than ever because of the current price and interest rate levels coming out of the housing crash.

    “As affordability worsens, we’re already beginning to see more of the kinds of worrisome trends we saw en masse during the years leading up to the housing crash. These include a greater reliance on non-traditional home financing, smaller down payments and a greater pressure to move further away from urban job centers in order to find affordable housing options,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. “We’re not in a bubble yet, but we’re beginning to see the early signs of one in some areas.”

    Homebuyers increasingly have to search on the perimeter of the country’s largest metro markets, as downtown properties become out of reach for buyers of typical means, the report found.

  2. grim says:

    Something just occurred to me recently about the minimum wage debate. One of the reasons that this is an issue that may actually gained traction is because there are no more jobs left to outsource.

    Hmm, not quite correct.

    It’s not necessarily minimum wage jobs we’re talking about here if we’re talking outsource/offshore. Yes, the job has to be largely operational in nature, with sufficient scale, but don’t make the mistake that these are the lower end. Most jobs that are outsourced are probably a few dollars above minimum wage, and much more so once you begin to include some of the management/support structures that would come along (team leads, coaches, trainers, supervisors, operational managers, tenured staff, reporting analysts).

    General trend, right now, for companies that are attempting to be more competitive, is to repatriate off-shore jobs to lower cost on-shore markets. Why? Enhanced customer experience – Frankly, quality and consistency is still better in the US. Equally important as language skills is cultural compatibility. What do I mean? Outsource an eCommerce phone sales support agent to a far off asian market and let me know how it goes when a 16 year old girl calls to talk fashion. The US employee will not only make the sale, and upsell more, the foreign agent will be clueless, even though they have impeccable language skills. More and more companies are outsourcing support because, well, we can do it better than they can, all costs aside – we can move faster, we can hire better, we can train better, we can incentivize better, and we have better technology (that they couldn’t even dream of affording).

    However, there are still plenty of struggling companies that are more then willing to push the jobs to the lowest cost markets offshore, and take the customer satisfaction hit associated with it, because the cost savings are so large. Not uncommon for companies in financial trouble to knock on the door.

    And now, more often than not, we’re seeing components of the larger support organization transitioned as well. Senior managers, support engineers, developers, trainers, coaches, etc etc. It’s not just moving the people, it’s moving the whole business segment.

    I’m still seeing a strong flow of companies that have never outsourced enter into the space, but the blend is still 50/50 – half looking for cost savings, and half looking to put a better model in place.

    But impact on minimum wage jobs? Marginal, because these really aren’t all minimum wage jobs.

  3. All our activities amount to the noodling of ants on a dung hill.

  4. grim says:

    Bigger problem is you’ve got countries in the asian and latin american geographies where you can attract a university educated employee (in some cases, US educated) into an industry that is regarded as a career profession. In the US these are looked at as dead end, in Latam, you’d brag about being hired. In addition, for global companies, being able to attract fluent bilinguals and trilinguals provides significantly more flexibility. And no, I’m not talking about India (which, IMHO, is dead from an outsourcing perspective if high quality customer engagement is required).

    These are probably the biggest challenges to repatriating jobs back to the US. Quality overseas is quickly getting better. However, the cost/wages are quickly getting higher.

  5. Phoenix says:

    Can’t blame this on ‘bomacare….. I know of a few medical professionals that have contracted this thru work injuries. Charge for med based on income. Not much different than taxing by how much you make or what your house is worth…..

    Gilead is offering Sovaldi in Egypt at a 99 percent discount to U.S. prices, or about $900 for a full course of treatment.

    Gilead wants to tier its pricing based on a country’s per-capita income. So patients in the U.K would pay about $57,000, Reuters reports, while Germans would pay $66,000 and Americans are paying $84,000.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/1000-a-day-miracle-drug-shocks-us-health-care-system/

  6. Phoenix says:

    .. contracted hep C…

  7. grim says:

    I really think drug companies should offer two tiers of pricing.

    One price where you retain the right to sue, and the second where you waive your right to sue.

    I think broadly, most have an unrealistic expectation that Medicine is actually Magic, and that is reflected in litigation, and in the price of service.

    Folks, medicine can kill you, it’s much easier when you accept that fact.

  8. Phoenix says:

    8 grim,
    You have way more than 2 tiers for this drug.
    Lowest tier 900.
    Highest tier 84,000.
    Not based on lawsuits, based on per capita income.
    You know, kinda like income tax, property tax, etc.
    The things people complain is “unfair” when they pay based on income.
    The price is not dictated by lawsuits according to the article.

  9. 1987 Condo says:

    #8..I like that idea.

  10. yome says:

    How can a bubble be forming in housing when low inventory is less < than people bidding in this houses. If affordability and people bidding is higher won't prices of homes sky rocket more?
    When home prices hit a pick and more homes goes to market and less people can afford them then prices will come down unless the banks lending standard is loosen. NO?

  11. An ant on a dung heap says:

    is NJ the dung heap?

  12. Pete says:

    Yome, where are you getting that less people can afford houses now? Compared to when? The way I see the market now is that there are more buyers out there then the past few years with less inventory. Simple supply and demand is causing prices to increase.

  13. yome says:

    Pete
    That is what I said
    ” low inventory is less < than people bidding"

  14. Michael says:

    “In some ways, the job market is tougher now than in any recession.”
    Those are the words of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who said Monday that the central bank’s goal “is to help Main Street, not Wall Street.” And she hopes to do that primarily by boosting the job market.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/31/news/economy/janet-yellen-raise/index.html

  15. yome says:

    Pete
    It is thread #1
    “1 in 3 homes is unaffordable and a bubble is forming”

  16. 1987 Condo says:

    Who knew?
    Study: Vegetarians Less Healthy, Lower Quality Of Life Than Meat-Eaters
    April 1, 2014 3:23 PM

    Vegetarians have a lower BMI and drink alcohol sparingly, but vegetarian diets are tied to generally poorer health, poorer quality of life and a higher need for health care than their meat-eating counterparts. (Photo by David McNew/Getty Images)

    ATLANTA (CBS ATLANTA) – Vegetarians may have a lower BMI and drink alcohol sparingly, but vegetarian diets are tied to generally poorer health, poorer quality of life and a higher need for health care than their meat-eating counterparts.

    A new study from the Medical University of Graz in Austria finds that vegetarians are more physically active, drink less alcohol and smoke less tobacco than those who consume meat in their diets. Vegetarians also have a higher socioeconomic status and a lower body mass index. But the vegetarian diet — characterized by a low consumption of saturated fats and cholesterol that includes increased intake of fruits, vegetables and whole-grain products — carries elevated risks of cancer, allergies and mental health disorders.

    Vegetarians were twice as likely to have allergies, a 50 percent increase in heart attacks and a 50 percent increase in incidences of cancer.

    The cross-sectional study from Austrian Health Interview Survey data and published in PLos One examined participants dietary habits, demographic characteristics and general lifestyle differences.

    The most significant dietary habit difference between meat-eaters and vegetarians concerned their BMI and alcohol consumption – with both being higher for those who consume meat.

    Many past studies have instead put an emphasis on the health risks associated with red meat and carnivorous diets, but this study points the other dietary direction. However, the researchers do caution that continuing studies will be needed to substantiate some of the rather broad dietary distinctions, associations presented in this current research.

    Overall, vegetarians were found to be in a poorer state of health compared to other dietary groups. Vegetarians reported higher levels of impairment from disorders, chronic diseases, and “suffer significantly more often from anxiety/depression.”

    Subjects who consumed lower amounts of animal fat were also linked to poor health care practices, such as avoidance of vaccinations and a lack of preventive care.

    Chronic problems associated with vegetarians and people eating carnivorous diets rich in fruits and vegetables were linked to more frequent visits to doctors, which the study authors suggest requires public health programs to reduce the health risk due to their nutritional factors.

    The researchers conclude: “Our study has shown that Austrian adults who consume a vegetarian diet are less healthy (in terms of cancer, allergies, and mental health disorders), have a lower quality of life, and also require more medical treatment.”

    “Therefore, a continued strong public health program for Austria is required in order to reduce the health risk due to nutritional factors.”

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes that healthy diets rich in fruits and vegetables may reduce the risk of cancer and other chronic diseases for all dietary groups. A 2009 study from the CDC found that about 1 in 200 young Americans, or 367,000 US children, are vegetarians.

    – Benjamin Fearnow

    http://atlanta.cbslocal.com/2014/04/01/study-vegetarians-less-healthy-lower-quality-of-life-than-meat-eaters/

  17. yome says:

    #11
    I just looked it up. I just defined the meaning of a Bubble.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    is NJ the dung heap?

    I heard Indiana takes that prize.

  19. chicagofinance says:

    Correlation does not imply causation…….or alternatively, the penchant for disease and medical/mental health issues could drive the decision toward a vegetarian diet……but we digress……

    1987 Condo says:
    April 4, 2014 at 8:54 am
    Who knew?
    Study: Vegetarians Less Healthy, Lower Quality Of Life Than Meat-Eaters
    April 1, 2014 3:23 PM

  20. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [8] grim

    See the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, a law I had to work with while a law clerk. It is becoming the model for other issues, like asbestos.

  21. chicagofinance says:

    The issue with Sovaldi is #1 it works…..very well in fact….and it does something astounding….it does not treat a condition…..it cures; #2 the adoption rate is the highest on record for an approved drug in the U.S……so much so, that healthcare insurance providers may have to issue profit warnings as they are on the hook to pay….. #3 guess who has the ear of Congress?

    grim says:
    April 4, 2014 at 7:12 am
    I really think drug companies should offer two tiers of pricing.

    One price where you retain the right to sue, and the second where you waive your right to sue.

    I think broadly, most have an unrealistic expectation that Medicine is actually Magic, and that is reflected in litigation, and in the price of service.

    Folks, medicine can kill you, it’s much easier when you accept that fact.

  22. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [15] Michael

    Didn’t read the piece yet. So were they able to blame Bush?

  23. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [22] chifi,

    I heard some analysis to suggest that this may actually save money versus other therapies and eventual death. Not sure what was backing up that report.

  24. 1987 Condo says:

    #20..I am looking for the cattle rancher who funded the study!

  25. Juice Box says:

    Tier pricing for a drug that cures Hep C? The average patient is a Heroin iv druggie who shares dirty needles and is indigent. Seems like the perfect way to over bill Medicaid.

  26. Ragnar says:

    #1, Grim,
    That statistic of “one in three homes is unaffordable” is really misleading. Some % of home values relative to historic incomes could simply indicate gentrification (new people with higher incomes moving in), or widening income disparities.
    Couldn’t one also write that X% of cars bought are also unaffordable relative to median income, because median income cannot support car prices over $50k?

    Not that there’s no value in home cost to income statistics, just perhaps less than one might suspect.

  27. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [2] grim

    It seems that you are looking at slices which point to exceptions. I’m looking at the macro picture. Outsourcing and insourcing will continue, especially across occupational groups. One leaves, another returns. I’ve not suggested it stopped, but I have suggested it has slowed a lot on a net basis.

    As for min wage jobs, many simply cannot be exported. Someone in Asia can’t empty your trash can. But the min wage assembly and processing jobs have been, and for a number of reasons not all related to the wage itself. Perhaps a better way of putting it is that these jobs were eliminated. They went where the overall cost structure is lower and did so long ago.

    But my thesis is that a min wage hike won’t cause outsourcing because the low paying jobs left in America are immune from that, and may have been for some time. You read me as saying that all jobs were immune from it, and in a macro environment, that can’t be read literally. And, as noted above, I do think outsourcing net has slowed dramatically but this is really tangential to my main point. Apologies for not being as clear as I could have been but I generally post on the fly.

  28. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [25]. Condo

    Ha, my first thought too!

    Beef! It’s what’s for dinner!

  29. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    Do the jobs number came in under consensus. More importantly, the jobs number came in well under the whisper number that was considerably higher than consensus.

    This was supposed to be an important jobs number: Political analysts were saying that the Democrats had much to be anxious about with this number because a decent number could explain away the storm ravaged months but a poor number would show an economy still struggling.

    So a number of people in my opinion, notably those predicting a number much higher than consensus, were probably expecting a surprise to the upside. Or, to put it more cynically, they were expecting BLS to cook the books a little.

  30. grim says:

    1/3 of the housing stock in NJ is owned outright, no mortgage.

    I suspect the vast majority of these properties would be “unaffordable” to the current owners.

    I doubt my parents could “afford” their home by all standard calculations. Most any other retiree would be in the same situation.

  31. yome says:

    Ave workweek hours came in very good at 34.5 hours previous at 34.2 consensus at 34.4 hours. Just an indication of economy and demand is picking up

  32. grim says:

    Jobs number came in at 192k, slightly under the consensus 200k – however there were strong upward revisions of the prior two months.

    The UE at 6.7% was bring driven by an improvement in the participation rate.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [32, 33]

    The revisions and current report suggest that the exceptionally stormy winter wasn’t really as much as factor as expected. I would have expected something of bounce in this report but it appears that there wasn’t much to bounce from. I guess it leaves to the pundits to explain what the reports now mean insofar as this last report was tepid and the prior reports not as bad as previously thought.

  34. Bystander says:

    Working in change management, I get pretty close to outsourcing plans. Every bank has initiative to consolidate source systems, MO/BO architectures, create global sub-ledger, single postings, single GL, single dashboard/reporting warehouse. The ultimate goal is to outsource all support jobs elsewhere, mostly India but low cost East. Europe countries are popular for London based firms now. These are MBA/CPA/CFA people. I don’t we are even close to finished, mostly because it takes years to complete migrations due to complexity and legal concerns. It is happening though. In next 10 years, good paying middle office and back office jobs will not exist in NYC.

  35. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Interesting. Teachers rank among the most miserable professionals

    http://www.therichest.com/business/salary/these-six-careers-have-the-most-miserable-workers-in-america/?utm_source=OT-US&utm_medium=Content-Distribution&utm_campaign=OT-US

    But which came in at most miserable? No surprise to me: Law firm associates!!!

  36. grim says:

    Eastern Europe is HOT…

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Anyone looking to do IRA rollovers should be careful under the best of circumstances. But now the IRS is disregarding its own guidance to go after taxpayers, and the US Tax Court is letting them.

    http://www.ustaxcourt.gov/InOpHistoric/BobrowMemo.Nega.TCM.WPD.pdf

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [38] redux

    This case is especially noteworthy for this crowd due to the location and profession of the taxpayer involved.

  39. Michael says:

    36- Even lawyers are getting screwed. I think the theme since 2008 has revolved around workers becoming ever so productive, ( taking on the jobs of his co-workers who have been laid off or fired) yet not seeing any kind of financial reward for this. Instead they get the “be happy you have job” when they start asking to be rewarded for their hard work. These lawyers are being asked to take 130,000 when they were making 175,000, that’s a big % hit, now where is this money going that is being saved? It has to go somewhere

    “According to an article in the Washington Post, many associates are unhappy, because although they’re making more money for their firms, they’re not seeing the fruits of their labor”

  40. Michael says:

    sorry that # was off….it was 160,000. Point remains the same, they are working harder, yet making less. Ahh, the American Dream. Work hard, and you will be wealthy too. The American Dream has turned into nothing more than a con.

  41. yome says:

    If NJ is 20% still below 2006 peak,what is making people wait longer? If you did not buy during the bottom of the downturn,prices are up 20 to 30% more today.

    http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2014/04/02/housing-priced-out/index.html?iid=Lead

  42. Theo says:

    #38 Nom

    Looks like they screwed up. Didn’t get money back into plan with 60 days and didn’t even get the full amount in. Should the IRS be going after this ticky-tacky stuff? Probably not, but as far as I can tell the last deposit was not an eligible rollover transaction.

  43. Libturd in the City says:

    Forget the jobs number, I’m still waiting for the death panels and hyper inflation to occur.

  44. Michael says:

    40- Yes, this is what happens when you print up money. Eventually people catch on, and realize the paper is worth jack.

    “”There is no sound currency anymore, “Rogers stated.

    “There’s no paper money in 2014 and 2015 that’s going to be worth much of anything,” he added.

    According to Bloomberg, the U.S. dollar has indeed reached a startling two-year low – its weakest since November 2011 – with consumer confidence dropping like a rock.

    And the U.S. dollar has lost 38.5% of its value since 2002.”

  45. Michael says:

    I agree, when is the hyper inflation coming? I’m still trying to figure out why inflation has not kicked in yet, anybody have any idea why?

    “Libturd in the City says:
    April 4, 2014 at 1:12 pm
    Forget the jobs number, I’m still waiting for the death panels and hyper inflation to occur.”

  46. yome says:

    It is amazing how this so called Pundits can give you false information based on their own views.

  47. Michael says:

    nice share

    yome says:
    April 4, 2014 at 12:25 pm
    If NJ is 20% still below 2006 peak,what is making people wait longer? If you did not buy during the bottom of the downturn,prices are up 20 to 30% more today.

    http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_estate/2014/04/02/housing-priced-out/index.html?iid=Lead

  48. 1987 Condo says:

    #47…few people have excess cash…per your other posts

  49. joyce says:

    Can the concept of correlation does not imply causation debunk every study’s findings?

  50. Michael says:

    Why are we, as a country, selling ourselves out? We save money now, but will be left with nothing in the future. You are helping these other countries when you take your business there. You are basically skipping out on paying America and instead giving it to another country.

    If you are a true American, keep your business and employees in America. Stop selling out your country for an extra few dollars. These companies that off-shore to take advantage of cheap labor are nothing more than dirtbags, who care only about themselves.

    “In next 10 years, good paying middle office and back office jobs will not exist in NYC.”

  51. Michael says:

    Thanks. You are right, if the money all goes to a few hands, it doesn’t create inflation. Inflation can only occur when that money reaches the hands of the majority. I had a brain fart and wasn’t thinking…it’s obvious why there is no hyper inflation YET.

    1987 Condo says:
    April 4, 2014 at 1:39 pm
    #47…few people have excess cash…per your other posts

  52. Libturd in the City says:

    ChiFi…Was thinking the same thing with the vegetarian diet findings.

  53. yome says:

    Here starts the penalties

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accused five New Jersey-based traders and two brokerages of bilking investors with illegal high-speed trading tactics known as “layering” or “spoofing.”

    Joseph Dondero, a co-owner of Visionary Trading LLC, tricked investors into buying and selling specific stocks at prices he manipulated by peppering those shares with orders he immediately canceled, the SEC said in an administrative order today. Dondero, Visionary Trading, Lightspeed Trading LLC and four other individuals will pay about $3 million to settle the matter.

    The settlement comes as regulators try to show they have a grasp on whether high-frequency and computer-driven trading is harming investors after a book on the practices was published this week, fanning a debate that has been part of regulatory discussions for years.

    “The fair and efficient functioning of the markets requires that prices of securities reflect genuine supply and demand,” Sanjay Wadhwa, senior associate director of the SEC’s New York regional office, said in a statement. “Traders who pervert these natural forces by engaging in layering or some other form of manipulative trading invite close scrutiny from the SEC.”

    Dondero’s rapid-fire orders, which occurred from 2008 to 2011, created fluctuations in the national best bid or offer of a stock, increased order book depth and sent false signals to investors who misinterpreted the “layering” as true demand for the stock, the SEC said.

    Dondero settled the claims for $1.9 million and agreed to be barred from the securities industry. Three other participants paid more than $500,000 to settle the accusations and agreed to two-year suspensions. A fifth individual will pay $10,000 to settle the matter.

    John Vazquez, an attorney for Dondero, didn’t immediately return a phone call seeking comment.

  54. Bystander says:

    #52,

    Mike – pretty naive to think that capitalism carries any flags. Capitalists want their production and labor in the cheapest countries, their management is a most educated and their private wealth and residence in the most stable and least taxed. As long as US carries point 3 then it should be ok. Point 1 is gone
    Point 2 is where world competition is killing US middle class. Cheap and educated is even better.

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [42] michael

    I was at a prestigious DC firm, just after what I called The Gunderson Wave spiked associate salaries. The money seemed insane and I correctly predicted the outcome.

    It wasn’t that long before when salaries were half of what I started at. But thew work was just as intense. One of my colleagues worked on the Citi-Traveler’s deal. He said that when he figured out all of his hours at work (billable and non), he was working for between 8 and 9 bucks an hour.

    So, when you consider that they simply cannot make the work more intense (only so many hours in a day), but doubled the salary, no surprise that it would prove unsustainable. I made my money and got out.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [52] michael

    “If you are a true American, keep your business and employees in America. Stop selling out your country for an extra few dollars. These companies that off-shore to take advantage of cheap labor are nothing more than dirtbags, who care only about themselves.”

    And they will die at the hands of their competitors who will undercut them.

    Go back some years on this board. I said then that the only way to grow our economy and have all our nice social welfare spending was to seal the borders. But I am not convinced that even that will work. If we aren’t importing because of protectionism, you can bet we aren’t exporting either.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    To wit, your “true americans” will die. The scumbags won’t.

  58. JJ says:

    Housing market is starting to thaw out. But it is getting expensive to buy because although property is back around 2003 prices other stuff such as Homeowners and Flood Insurance and Property Taxes as well as electric, gas and oil have increased significantly since 2003

    I am pretty good at grieving taxes etc. But some folks are not and larger new homes it is tough to grieve. These houses have higher taxes and cost more to heat etc.

    My wife showed me a house she liked on internet and it was like 600K more than what my current home was worth but had everything she liked. Then I bust her bubble the house is an extra 800 a month in property taxes and has $300 a month in flood insurance plus property insurance would be an extra $200 a month And that 1,300 bucks a month is just out the door. Back 15 years ago the cost of owning a big house mortgage free was not much more than a smaller house mortgage free but that has changed a lot

  59. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [38] & [39] – Nom – That’s exactly the IRA kiting plan I proposed to you when we had drinks in Boston. I figured if I had 7 IRA accounts and wanted to start living off that money at age 58, I could take $100K from one and just repay with the next account every 60 days. I figured you would need 7 accounts because 6 accounts would only get you to day 360 of the calendar year, but 7 would work and you wouldn’t have to repay each account right on penalty day. So that plan is a no-go now?

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [57] theo,

    I was going to weigh in but you found the issue, which pertains to the first two distributions, not the wife’s third (which was late).

    Interestingly, I represented a taxpayer on nearly identical facts (4 distributions and rollovers in a year), and the Service did not contest the multiple distributions and rollovers. The taxpayer did miss some 60 day windows and paid up, but challenges to timely rollovers were dropped.

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [62] expat

    So it would seem.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    for nom….

    The End Is Nigh (Cronut Edition):
    Authorities Thursday shuttered trendy Soho bakery Dominique Ansel – known for kicking off the cronut craze – after a grossed out patron filmed a mouse scurrying across the floor.

    A notice on the famed bakery’s door Thursday stated “Closed by order of the commissioner of Health and Mental Hygiene.”

    “The establishment was closed by the Department because of a severe mouse infestation that requires professional pest control services,” said a health department spokesperson.

    A rep for the bakery told Gothamist.com that the store wouldn’t reopen until Monday.

    “Due to the video footage, the DOH came with three inspectors today,” a the rep told the news blog. “Any hole larger than the tip of a ballpoint pen is considered a violation. We were asked to re-cement the entire basement, which won’t allow us work.”

    The staff went through a deep cleaning session that lasted 7 hours and the bakery’s award-winning chef even got on his knees to search for the offending critter, Goathamist.com reported.

    The bakery has received an “A” health grade since opening in 2011, the rep said.

    “Cleanliness is something that is of utmost importance to us,” the rep added.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    There are snarky examples, but also some legit ones…..sometimes a person’s diet preferences are actually precursors to larger issues that rise to the surface later…..

    Libturd in the City says:
    April 4, 2014 at 2:22 pm
    ChiFi…Was thinking the same thing with the vegetarian diet findings.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    If your finding is robust, you should not be able to break the linkage…..the break from causation presumption occurs with case evidence…… my point to Stu is that the study implies if A -> B…..and I am suggesting that it is possible that if B -> A……and A & B are correlated because B causes A, not vice versa……just conjecture….

    joyce says:
    April 4, 2014 at 1:53 pm
    Can the concept of correlation does not imply causation debunk every study’s findings?

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Check out clot on lead vocal…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiLTQaST-C4

    FYI…..yes that’s really Mike Reno…..eeek!

  66. joyce says:

    Comrade,
    I’ve responded similarly in the past regarding your fear of certain policy changes to which you blanket all with the boogeyman of ‘protectionism’. There are several things that can be done including tariffs and the like which will do nothing but strengthen the US.

  67. joyce says:

    67
    I agree. I was referring to some people just reflexively using that retort when the headline is something they don’t agree with. Yes, the study methodology and findings need to be examined in detail.

  68. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [70] Joyce,

    And will not our trading partners respond in kind? And will not our competitors respond asymmetrically to seek greater advantage?

    You assume stasis. You might as well assume you have a can opener.

  69. Cronut Nom Deplume says:

    [72] redux

    And, finally, will it be enough?