Home price growth to slow towards year end

From HousingWire:

Clear Capital: 0.9% growth the new normal for rest of 2014

Clear Capital’s midyear market report card says the industry needs to get used to less than 1% housing growth for the remainder of 2014.

That said, all total 2014 should see year-end housing gains of 3.9%, within the historic norms of 3-5% housing growth, Clear Capital’s analyst said. They note that from 1982 after the Carter recession, through 2013, home prices grew an average 3.2%.

“Our midyear forecast continues to support the initial 2014 projection for national price growth we made back in December 2013, with overall home prices expected to end the year up 3.9%,” said Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While it might feel like a shock to market participants and observers who have grown used to double digit price growth, the market’s continued move back toward long-run historical levels and growth rates is something we have expected. What we will be watching for, however, is whether the market settles into this historical sweet spot or whether prices continue to underperform historical norms.

“The low price tier, one of the key drivers of the recovery, has put on the brakes. Through the end of 2014, national annual rates of growth will be more than cut in half from the current 12.4% to just 5.6%. By Q4, quarterly growth across all three price tiers is set to fall below 1%, with the low tier forecast showing the weakest quarterly growth of all,” the report states.

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53 Responses to Home price growth to slow towards year end

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. The real shortage isn’t in dead dinosaur juice, it’s water:

    “It’s just going to be screwed. And relatively quickly,” warns Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, telling The Telegraph, the situation in Las Vegas is “as bad as you can imagine”. After a devastating, 14-year drought drained the reservoir that supplies 90% of the city’s water, the apparently endless supply of water is an illusion as Las Vegas population has soared. As Barnett ominously concludes, “unless it can find a way to get more water from somewhere, Las Vegas is out of business. Yet they’re still building, which is stupid.”

    This should fuel some interesting violence.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-30/las-vegas-screwed-water-situation-bad-you-can-imagine

  3. Hey Gary, you think you got it bad? Check out these shitboxes, compliments of David Stockman:

    “On the theory that perhaps at some point a picture can overcome the dense dogma of our benighted Keynesian money printers in the Eccles Building, the two illustrations below from the Dr. Housing Bubble Blog are offered. Arcardia and San Marino, California are most definitely not unique national treasures where cracker-box houses should be valued at $1-$1.5 million. No, they are just at the leading edge of the renewed speculative mania that has been touched off by the Fed’s latest and greatest monetary inflation.

    Dr. Yellen, of course, claims there are no financial bubbles to worry about because the Keynesian bathtub of potential GDP has not yet been filled to the brim. Perhaps she would like to put in a bid for one of these.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-30/california-housing-and-bubble-hand

  4. anon (the good one) says:

    @AlexiLalas:
    Arise @ussoccer nation! The day is upon us.
    #BELvsUSA #USMNT #TravelVictories @MarriottIntl

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [2] We’ll need to annex Canada to augment the flow of the Colorado River.

  6. Michael says:

    I touched on this a couple months ago. I stated that the only place you want to live is in the northeast. Everyone running to texas and all these so called cheap places to live are in for one hell of a wake up call. They don’t have any water as is, yet they are still welcoming and “encouraging” development in their states. It’s the definition of insane. Water wars will be real this century. F oil. You don’t need it to survive. Water you do. Why we continue to destroy the single most important resource, besides clean air, is beyond me.

    Transfuse the Cadaver says:
    July 1, 2014 at 6:44 am
    The real shortage isn’t in dead dinosaur juice, it’s water:

    “It’s just going to be screwed. And relatively quickly,” warns Tim Barnett, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, telling The Telegraph, the situation in Las Vegas is “as bad as you can imagine”. After a devastating, 14-year drought drained the reservoir that supplies 90% of the city’s water, the apparently endless supply of water is an illusion as Las Vegas population has soared. As Barnett ominously concludes, “unless it can find a way to get more water from somewhere, Las Vegas is out of business. Yet they’re still building, which is stupid.”

    This should fuel some interesting violence.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-30/las-vegas-screwed-water-situation-bad-you-can-imagine

  7. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Michael says:
    July 1, 2014 at 8:07 am
    I stated that the only place you want to live is in the northeast.

    unless your grandmom gives you a house someplace else.

  8. yome says:

    Desalinization,NO? Countless Countries have been using it. Ocean table expected to get high due to Global Warming.

  9. chicagofinance says:

    The chief economist of Zillow was on Bloomberg yesterday…….the unspoken source of demand in the real estate markets has nothing to do with the U.S. public. A hefty chunk of demand in LV, AZ & FL is Canadians. FL has Latin Americans. The entire West Coast from Vancouver to SD is being inflated by Chinese money. NYC & FL is also being primed by the Russians and Chinese…….

  10. grim says:

    Yawn, nuclear desalinization…

  11. njescapee says:

    Lots of Ontario plates in and around Ft Lauderdale area where I bought a short sale condo.

  12. All Hype says:

    Clot (2):

    If I were the residents of Idaho, Wyoming, Utah or Montana I would start building the ramparts now because it’s not just Vegas that will be emptying out in 20 years. Unless the idiot libs in California start building some desalinization plants ASAP they are going to be out of water in less than 10 years. The drought in California is already 3 years in length and no end is in sight.

    Here is the drought map:
    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [10] grim – you meant to type nukular dsalinization, right? It’s only funny if you spell both words wrong.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Re #12 – more likely senario is they take the water from the farmers in California and the cost of food for everyone else skyrockets. I believe the nut farmers use more water than people use today in Cali. I hope you like you 10 dollar head of lettuce.

  15. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [4] anon

    Today, I am on the same side as anon. On soccer.

    After the game, its back to ignoring and belittling you. But for now, its futbol kumbaya.

  16. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [2] clot

    Which is why I have plenty of water storage, water access, and the means to protect it.

  17. Ragnar says:

    People are worried Canada’s real estate is in a bubble.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat [3],

    I’m going to send a funeral spray to the people who buy those homes.

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
  20. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [19] redux,

    Its also the reason that should the western states ever decide to go it on their own, their most implacable foe might not the the remaining US states but Mexico.

    http://www.nature.com/news/water-returns-to-arid-colorado-river-delta-1.14897

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Da dum

    Da dum

    da dum, da dum, da dum, da, da da, dum . . .

    http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/us/2014/07/01/pkg-great-white-sharks-spotted-northeast.wcvb.html

    Seems like this is happening more frequently, or perhaps our ability to observe is better.

  22. Street Justice says:

    I have to pump water out of my basement via the sump pump constantly. That’s like the least of my worries.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [22] street,

    I wouldn’t want to drink that. Not even sure I would want to irrigate with it.

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [23] redux

    If I have power, I have water. That isn’t the issue. The bigger problem is potable water. I have no control over runoff or groundwater contamination beyond trusting in regulation. And while I have treatment, it isn’t going to get everything unless I get an RO system. At that point, btwn UV and RO, I should be covered.

  25. grim says:

    If its yellow, let it mellow.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    If it’s brown, flush it down.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    Speaking of brown, words cannot describe the amount of filth and disgust this house contained. I went to see it over the weekend and from the exterior to interior, it was appalling. We opened closets and there were pieces of things that resembled garments or some type of clothing stuffed inside from bottom to top. The walls were filthy and were screaming for paint. The bathrooms and kitchen was downright foul. There was dogsh1t on the floor. The stink in the house was horrid and I felt like I needed to delouse after I left.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1416456&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  28. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re [4];

    @AlexiLalas:
    Arise @ussoccer nation! The day is upon us.
    #BELvsUSA #USMNT #TravelVictories @MarriottIntl

    Alas, even the blessed anon has succumbed as a tool of the mighty corporate interests.

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [21];

    Great story about ‘The most-heard tubaist on the planet.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/04/AR2006120401563_2.html

  30. Juice Box says:

    19 – People use only 7% of the water from the rivers, the rest is used by agribusiness, as they take more water for people over food which they are doing now you can bet much more expensive food is coming. Yet 40% of food we produce end up in landfills. We produce more than we can eat, and 2/3rds of Americans are considered FAT.

    Should be interesting to see the fatties go crazy as food gets irrationally expensive which it will if the drought out west keeps up for the next 5 years.

  31. anon (the good one) says:

    not sure why Lalas did that. didn’t notice it. no cool

    Anon E. Moose says:
    July 1, 2014 at 10:56 am
    Re [4];

    @AlexiLalas:
    Arise @ussoccer nation! The day is upon us.
    #BELvsUSA #USMNT #TravelVictories @MarriottIntl

    Alas, even the blessed anon has succumbed as a tool of the mighty corporate interests.

  32. joyce says:

    paralyzed man resists arrest

    http://www.roanoke.com/news/columns_and_blogs/columns/dan_casey/casey-roanoke-man-contests-scooter-related-arrest/article_72c145ae-fcdc-11e3-9b2d-0017a43b2370.html

    A wheelchair-bound man was taken to the ground face-first and handcuffed because he rode his motorized scooter on the shoulder of a road against traffic, the way pedestrians are legally supposed to. Police impounded his scooter and took him to jail.

    A male officer ordered him to stand up, Dodson recalled. “I said, ‘I can’t stand up. That’s why I’m in this wheelchair.’”

    A second officer literally slammed the paralyzed man face-first on the ground and handcuffed him behind his back, the Roanoke Times reported.

    Mr. Dodson was charged with driving the wrong way, disorderly conduct, and resisting arrest. He was taken to jail on a stretcher and his scooter was impounded. His bond was set at $1,000.

    Police have disputed Dodson’s side of the story, but have yet to release the dashcam video as he requested, over 8 weeks later.

    “You know what I want to see?” Dodson told me. “The video on the dashcam from the lady police officer’s cruiser. The whole thing that went down is on that.”

  33. anon (the good one) says:

    @KeithOlbermann: Pre-game reminder: “Belgian Waffles” were created there in ’58 but took off at ’62 Seattle ’64 NY World’s Fairs (pic) http://t.co/ZGUSGWER2V

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    Joyce [32];

    I smell another hard drive crash brewing…

  35. joyce says:

    Moose,
    My favorite hard drive crash recently was when these correctional officers boiled a mentally ill man to death.

    ” The newspaper has also requested footage from the prisons cameras and other public records. However, according to the Herald, “the inspector general cited a ‘malfunction’ making it impossible to view what happened after corrections officer Roland Clarke placed Rainey in the shower.” ”

    http://fcir.org/2014/05/21/miami-herald-allegations-of-abuse-of-mentally-ill-in-florida-prison/

  36. grim says:

    27 – g man – There are numerous pockets of filth scattered around Northern NJ, I’d say there is actually a cleanliness gap between middle class and mcmansion territory. But yes, Hillsdale stands out, as does Washington Twp. Hell, based on what I’ve seen, Fair Lawn has significantly better household hygiene than many higher priced towns. Surprisingly, West Caldwell very messy, as is Montclair. Lots of dirty black tub grout and filthy kitchen floors in Montclair.

    Remember that smoke house in Wash? I stunk so bad when I got home my wife made me change and take a shower. I bet you that household smoked 4 packs a day for the past 30 years. Did you notice the dark spot above the arm chair in the den (the one with the pedestal ash tray from 1973), it was kind of like the dark spot you occasionally see on the paint above a candle, except this was a quarter inch thick and had pieces of lung and coal embedded.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    …pieces of lung and coal embedded.

    LOL!! Omg, I almost fell out of the chair! Yes, I remember it well! It was Colonial blvd. In fact, I think I remember every house in detail that I saw over these last few years. The smoke house wasn’t as offensive as some but this one over the weekend definitely made the top five.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    Who’s your favorite actor and actress?

    Actor: De Niro, it’s not even close.
    Actress: Whoever is hot. lol!

  39. Hello Dear, are you genuinely visiting this web page regularly, if
    so after that you will without doubt obtain pleasant know-how.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Oh the joys of home ownership…..

    Remind me why I am throwing a 4th of July party for my family?

    I took a few days off to work on the house and all I have been doing is pulling weeds, power washing my brick patio and spending money like crazy. So far I purchased one of those 11 ft wide umbrellas on a cantilever arm and a living room for my backyard. Since when did having a living room in your back yard become a thing? I yearn for the days of the old, but I could not even find a single red wooden picnic table or a metal backyard chair at the stores. Anything retro can only be found online and it ain’t cheap. Heck I would have went with the plastic pvc chairs but I was told that we needed fancier metal chairs with cushions.

    It may rain Friday and then it will be me and the chipmunks enjoying my new wet furniture in my backyard.I hope the chipmunks are thirsty and hungry since I will have lots of beer and food for them. Why do I feel like WT now? Is it because I have what looks like a couch with cushions outside? Also since when are sparklers illegal in NJ? I could have sworn they used to sell them at the local stores when I was a kid. Can you still get fireworks in Little Italy or did they do away with that too?

  41. grim says:

    Can you still get fireworks in Little Italy or did they do away with that too?

    Chinatown, but that died with Guiliani.

  42. Michael says:

    Those were the days!!!

    grim says:
    July 1, 2014 at 4:18 pm
    Can you still get fireworks in Little Italy or did they do away with that too?

    Chinatown, but that died with Guiliani.

  43. Michael says:

    Who’s the big winner! Lol

    It’s insane the amount of work and money that goes into hosting.

    Juice Box says:
    July 1, 2014 at 3:31 pm
    Oh the joys of home ownership…..

    Remind me why I am throwing a 4th of July party for my family?

  44. Michael says:

    I heard the process is expensive and uses way too much energy for it to be a viable option.

    yome says:
    July 1, 2014 at 8:33 am
    Desalinization,NO? Countless Countries have been using it. Ocean table expected to get high due to Global Warming.

  45. yome says:

    Energy consumption of sea water desalination can be as low as 3 kWh/m3,[9] including pre-filtering and ancillaries, similar to the energy consumption of existing fresh water supplies transported over large distances,[10] but much higher than local fresh water supplies which use 0.2 kWh/m3 or less.[11]

    The laws of physics determine a minimum energy consumption for sea water desalination around 1 kWh/m3,[12][13] excluding pre-filtering and intake/outfall pumping. Under 2 kWh/m3[14] has been achieved with existing reverse osmosis membrane technology, leaving limited scope for further energy reductions.

    Supplying all domestic water by sea water desalination would increase US Domestic energy consumption by around 10%, about the amount of energy used by domestic refrigerators[15]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desalination

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    We are finished. I just knew anon’s support was the kiss of death.

  47. Hughesrep says:

    47

    The next big thing, since 1978.

    Good for the kid, Greene.

    Too bad, I was starting to appreciate it a bit, beer certainly helps. To a non fan the difference in on ball ability stands out. Why isn’t every washed out D1 point guard a soccer player?

    I’ll get sucked back in around four years.

  48. 1987 condo says:

    Tampa uses a desalination plant

  49. Not exactly on-ball quality, as most of our guys have technical quality on the ball as individuals. The real problem- as it’s always been- is movement forward as a team and coordinating movement to keep/advance the ball and put defenders under pressure.

    The basic movement of soccer- which is just now being drilled in the US game- is 3 players moving the ball in a forward-back-through pattern (in 99 out of 100 US teams, at all levels, this is incorrectly taught as “create and work passing triangles”, resulting in static play that is too slow to win games). This is the basis of all attacking soccer and isn’t at all as simple as it sounds. It involves the forward player executing the “back” part of the movement perfectly, then immediately getting an explosive step to a spot further up the pitch. The receiver of the back pass must instantly decide between playing the “through” ball or playing an “out” ball of some type to a fourth player, and the player in the “through” position at the beginning of the movement has to instantly recognize he’s in that position, then perfectly time the run forward. Any slip-up in this movement, and you can lose the ball.

    No team in the world- including Spain at their best- does this right 100% of the time, but- like a boxer who lands hundreds of jabs- the effect of this type of movement slowly debilitates the opponent and breaks their will. The US team does now understand this, and they have good stretches against top teams, but they aren’t able to execute at that level for more than 10-12 minutes at a time.

    The U-15 and U-17 USMNT players have been schooled in this from day one and area already having big success. When those guys age up into the senior squad over the next 1-2 WC cycles, we will be a contender.

    MLS still sucks, and drafting mediocre college players into a phony, rigged-up, Disneyed “professional” setting (and demanding that people pay good money to watch shit players) remains a big problem, but I’m feeling good about the general direction of the game here.

  50. No feet, no quality, no ability to manipulate the ball, no game sense. The hoops skills don’t translate at all to soccer.

    “Why isn’t every washed out D1 point guard a soccer player?”

  51. phoenix says:

    Puerto Rico, tax haven for super rich- this topic was brought up a few days ago…
    http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-26/puerto-rico-tax-haven-for-americas-super-rich

    Followed by…Puerto Rico Downgrade Raises Default Fears..
    http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904248904580003610191234810

    So, there is money, but there is no money. P.R has more citizens on disability than any other part of the U.S. Cheap labor subsidized by Medicaid and Social Security Disability. Clot is right again. I’m going to need some of Grim’s tonic too. Hope he gets it ramped up soon.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Holy shwa,

    I’ve been working on a novel and, in one scene, protesters blocked ICE buses of illegals at the TX-AZ border. This was based on the news stories about ICE picking up illegals in TX and busing them to Tucson. I probably wrote that chapter just over a week ago.

    Today, I dial up the news and find this.

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/02/us/california-immigrant-transfers/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

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