Stuck In Place

From HousingWire:

American mobility at historic low and not changing soon

The U.S. Census Bureau’s current population survey released on Tuesday shows that mobility is flat – at the same low level of 11.7% as the year before.

This comes despite the common assumption about those demographic darlings in the under-35 age range.

Just over one in 10 Americans moved in the year ending March 2014, unchanged from the year ending March 2013.

Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia (TRLA) said that at this rate, the typical American stays put eight and a half years between moves.

“Remember the old rule of thumb that people move every seven years? Well, that was true until around 2003. In fact, the mobility rate has been falling for decades, as we pointed out in this post last year,” Kolko says.

He notes that 50 and 60 years ago, Americans moved every five years on average. By the year 2000 that was changing to every seven years, and that average is growing.

“With the percentage of Americans moving stuck at 11.7% in 2014, mobility remains near the all-time low of 11.6% in 2011. That’s considerably below the 14% rate from the early 2000s,” Kolko writes. “The housing bust and recession offer possible explanations why people are stuck in place – things like negative home equity and few job opportunities to move for.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

131 Responses to Stuck In Place

  1. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    fristy!

  2. grim says:

    Lots of great news this morning, from the Star Ledger:

    New Jersey one of three states with increase in poverty last year, Census reports

    New Jersey was one of three states that saw both a jump in the number of people living in poverty and the poverty rate in 2013, according to new Census numbers.

    The data released on Thursday shows that while the poverty rates in most states has plateaued, New Jersey’s poverty rate actually went up from 10.8 percent in 2012 to 11.4 percent in 2013.

    The other two states that posted an increase were New Mexico and Washington.

    The announcement comes two days after the Census released a separate report stating that the nationwide poverty rate declined slightly for the first time since 2006.

    “It was a surprise to us, and a bit disturbing”, said Melville D. Miller president of Legal Services of New Jersey, who had predicted that the new Census numbers for New Jersey would either remain stagnant or decrease slightly because of decreasing unemployment rates.

    Miller said the increase could be due to the fact that even previously unemployed people who have found work may still may remain at the poverty level.

    “I resist making any sweeping generalizations,” he added. But, when combined with some of the other economic trends that he said he has observed such as declining wages, the new data is “worrisome.”

    The actual number of people living in poverty increased from 934,943 in 2012 to 998,549 in 2013.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    not impressed by Scotland’s self-aggrandizing efforts

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Underwater muppets indeed.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Anon,

    What is your occupation again?

  6. Michael says:

    Yea, and most are in newark, paterson, camden, passaic, dover, etc….

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 18, 2014 at 7:38 am
    Underwater muppets indeed.

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    The other side of less mobility may be greater “stability”…actually form bonds in a community, deal with an issue rather than move away from it…

  8. Juice Box says:

    Re: #7 – ohhh! Can I answer?

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [7] eddie,

    You can “assume” whatever you like. Just as irrelevant told us we could “assume” he made $300K a year.

    That, of course, is most likely b.s. Usually, when someone actually makes $300K a year legally, they aren’t a raving soc1alist or complete loon.

  10. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Anyway, purpose for logging on. Finally, a nice story involving NJ, and one that grim can appreciate.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102001234

  11. grim says:

    Hell yes. The growth of the craft beer and craft spirits markets tells me that Americans are willing to pay higher prices for better products manufactured in the USA, more than willing, they’ll go out of they way to seek out and try these kinds of products.

  12. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [5] irrelevant,

    “not impressed by Scotland’s self-aggrandizing efforts”

    Anyone else have to wipe coffee off their screen after reading this and who it came from?

  13. anon (the good one) says:

    why you always ask me the same question? I already answered

    Ragnar, check today’s FT review of the trilogy. It opens:
    “Has there ever been a weirder film trilogy than the adaptation of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged?”

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 18, 2014 at 7:40 am
    Anon,

    What is your occupation again?

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [13] grim,

    Saw a story about potential malt shortages coming due to crop spoilage this summer.

    I don’t think that affects your product, but I am likely going to stock up on some malt. Only concern is shelf life.

  15. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    At the risk of giving irrelevant any material to work with, I found this laugher next to the scottish vote story I was reading.

    http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2014/09/16/disgraced-televangelists-now-selling-end-world-biscuits/?intcmp=obnetwork

    Once a con man, always a con man I guess.

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’ve been trolling through my daughter’s “Google Classroom” today. It’s pretty amazing, apparently just launched in the last few months. My kids have had school-issued Google accounts for at least a year, but the classroom thing really is well thought out. OTOH, you could really micro-manage the hell out of your kid with this thing. JJ would like it because he could even see what Asians are in his kid’s class so he could tell them who to cheat off of.

    http://googleforwork.blogspot.com/2014/08/more-teaching-less-tech-ing-google.html

  17. grim says:

    Interesting strategy from Google. I had thought that Blackboard was the defacto standard in the space, was pretty common across colleges, and just a few years ago I’d heard high schoolers start mentioning it.

    Let me guess, from a tablet compatibility perspective, it only comes in an Android app?

    Could be brilliant move towards capturing the educational space, you know, Apple’s old thing. Frankly, Apple’s commitment to this space is a bit thin these days, dumping iPads on districts as a tool to push Angry Birds only goes so far.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [19] grim – More info: http://goo.gl/pySakU

    So with Google classroom (separate classroom for each subject, but all accessible from the Classroom home screen) you can see every assignment and every work in progress or turned in and then with Boston Public’s separate Aspen portal you can see up to the minute grading of every component in every class. I wonder how many parents will get caught actually writing their kids stuff for them. I hope they have IP tracking so they can pay attention to that stuff.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Doesn’t look like Google froze out IOS with their Classroom offering. I was just thinking the same thing, wouldn’t it be ironic if Google swoops in to dominate the space that launched Apple. I used to work for a company that did network cabling and when we did classrooms I wondered why the hell there was nothing but Apple IIe’s in the elementary computer labs.

    http://vimeo.com/101976418

    Interesting strategy from Google. I had thought that Blackboard was the defacto standard in the space, was pretty common across colleges, and just a few years ago I’d heard high schoolers start mentioning it.

    Let me guess, from a tablet compatibility perspective, it only comes in an Android app?

    Could be brilliant move towards capturing the educational space, you know, Apple’s old thing. Frankly, Apple’s commitment to this space is a bit thin these days, dumping iPads on districts as a tool to push Angry Birds only goes so far.

  20. Anon E. Moose says:

    ExPat [18];

    Google going after grade schoolers? Jimmy sends an IM to Jenny about meeting after field hockey practice and Google serves him an add to buy her new cleats?

    If it wasn’t being done by a $400B company with the second largest market cap in America, everyone would see it for just plain creepy — like the corner newsstand shopkeeper who sold kids smokes when no one else was in the store, or a few other things kept under the counter if they knew to ask.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    Michael [8],

    I’ll introduce you to people that live in Ridgewood, Wyckoff and Franklin Lakes whom have admitted that they can’t sell for the same price they purchased. The ones in Paterson, Camden, etc. simply walk away. The ones in the Haughty towns continue to make payments for a depressed asset. THEY are the underwater muppets.

  22. Phoenix says:

    18.
    I wonder how many others will have access to this information. Not sure I would want Google to have it….

    So with Google classroom (separate classroom for each subject, but all accessible from the Classroom home screen) you can see every assignment and every work in progress or turned in and then with Boston Public’s separate Aspen portal you can see up to the minute grading of every component in every class.

  23. joyce says:

    Expat,
    Regarding google/classroom …

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229408

  24. Anon E. Moose says:

    Title Post:

    “The housing bust and recession offer possible explanations why people are stuck in place – things like negative home equity and few job opportunities to move for.”

    Give the man a cupie doll. People move for jobs, but in this jobless “recovery” there’s little to nothing worth moving for — the only “boom” industry I’m aware of is shale oil in the upper Midwest, and even at that the average worker moving there to capitalize on it is going to get gouged by the local economy inflating cost of living.

    At the risk of stepping on Eddie’s turf, equity losses (perhaps, but not quite requiring negative equity) is a secondary factor. Even if one CAN afford to sell, people are avers to taking a loss. What is there to motivate someone to realize their decline from the peak? See above, nothing.

  25. Michael says:

    As long as you can make the payments and you are not selling, what difference does the current price make? It’s inevitable that 20 years from now prices will be higher. Don’t give me this bs that housing will be cheaper 20 years from now. That’s wishful thinking.

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 18, 2014 at 9:12 am
    Michael [8],

    I’ll introduce you to people that live in Ridgewood, Wyckoff and Franklin Lakes whom have admitted that they can’t sell for the same price they purchased. The ones in Paterson, Camden, etc. simply walk away. The ones in the Haughty towns continue to make payments for a depressed asset. THEY are the underwater muppets.

  26. chi in People's Republic of Ithaca says:

    newark, paterson, camden, passaic
    Everyone talk about …..Pop Muzik

    Michael says:
    September 18, 2014 at 7:41 am
    Yea, and most are in newark, paterson, camden, passaic, dover, etc….

  27. Juice Box says:

    re # 22 – re: “Federal Reserve should instead give money directly to people”

    When I received my drivers license at the Lodi DMV back in the day there was a bunch of kooks with a card table and pamphlets espousing a similar idea, that basically the Fed should cut out the middle men the banks and lend directly to the American people. Turns out they were apart of the Lyndon LaRouche movement.

    Bwahahahaa!

  28. Ragnar says:

    I watched the first Atlas Shrugged movie out of curiosity and hated it. The producers of the series think that the novel is primarily about politics, which it absolutely is not. As background, the people involved in making the movie are people who split away from the Ayn Rand Institute decades ago, because that institution believed philosophy is the ultimate driver of history. This movie crowd imagines that they can just jump into Republican/Libertarian politics and suddenly effect change, without challenging thousands of years of premises relating to reality and ethics. They clearly failed on both a political and artistic level with these movies. Ayn Rand despised both Christian Conservatives (people stuck in the dark ages metaphysically, attempting and failing to reconcile Christian altruism with capitalism), and Libertarians (who she called “hippies of the right”). The movie makers are attempting to pander to both audiences with these amateurish movies.

  29. grim says:

    Regarding alcohol and headaches, and the post yesterday signaling out cogeners in spirits as the culprit.

    First realize that cogener is not a thing, but a category of things other than ethanol and water. This whole class of things includes higher order alcohols, lower order alcohols, fusel oils, aromatics, esters, etc.

    In many cases, it’s these cogeners that contribute to the style of spirit, otherwise everything would just taste like vodka.

    The distillation process can not selectively separate desirable compounds from undesirable compounds. And for some classes of spirits, you simply can’t eliminate some of the undesirable cogeners, since they’ll distill out at the same time as the beneficial ones.

    A good example of this is grappa, almost every grappa will be a headache bomb, but if you distill it to the point where you remove the very things that make grappa a grappa, you are really just left with vodka.

    You can make near anything into a vodka, just distill it at a higher proof. You could fill a still with brandy, rum, schnapps, and whatever else, and given a high enough separation, you’ll get vodka out.

    Vodka is a silly little thing when looked at through the context of the US laws that govern vodka. Here is what the TTB says that vodka should be:

    Neutral spirits distilled or treated after distillation with charcoal or other materials so as to be without distinctive character, aroma, taste or color

    Essentially, vodka shouldn’t have flavor or any distinctive character. Thus no vodka should technically be distinguishable from any other vodka. The other factor is by law, vodka needs to be distilled at 95% (190 proof). At this proof, there is very little in the way of cogeners or flavors compared to other spirits. Now we know in reality, this isn’t the case.

    What it boils down to is the price or marketing does not at all indicate the quality of the product entirely separate from the cogeners associated with headaches. While yes, it’s true that many low cost spirits are of lower quality, but on the opposite side of the spectrum, it’s very common for higher priced spirits to also be of low quality.

  30. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    PF – Try buckling your thinking cap one more notch tighter and see if you can come up with any differences. If you still come up blank, go another notch tighter, then another, then another…

    As long as you can make the payments and you are not selling, what difference does the current price make?

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Fast Eddie: What is the allure of Oradell, River Edge etc.?…..I was there with my son on Monday for a doctor’s appointment……the hills and highways mean that the roads are all tight, compressed, and frankly a PIA…..the housing stock appeared to be a pile of crap…..frankly, based on the drivers, there appeared to be tons of mirthless old people…..the damned area is downright claustrophobic…….you’d be a caged rat there….

  32. grim says:

    34 – F*cked if I know, I’ve always wondered the exact same thing. Circle jerk is the best I’d ever come up with to explain it.

  33. joyce says:

    Judge doing his best Breakfast Club imitation? (open your mouth and that’s another 24 hours! I’ll keep tacking ’em on)

    http://www.wncn.com/story/26548925/durham-judge-calls-parents-idiots-jails-mom-for-outburst

  34. joyce says:

    First class all the way, at least we know they’re held the most accountable of anyway in the system

  35. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    A now long dead old timer told me once that a friend of his used to do this with apples during the prohibition. He said his friend distilled it twice and it would really knock you on your @ss but, he claimed, you never got a hangover from it. OTOH, I think the worst hangover I’ve ever had was at a 2002 wedding I attended in at the Ritz-Carlton in Toronto where I was drinking something like well vodka and cranberry juice (I’m sure other drinks too). If my wife couldn’t drive the next morning we would have had to stay another night because I just couldn’t.

    You can make near anything into a vodka, just distill it at a higher proof. You could fill a still with brandy, rum, schnapps, and whatever else, and given a high enough separation, you’ll get vodka out.

  36. Juice Box says:

    re # 34- The allure is it is a trade up town from Bergenfield, Dumont, New Milford etc. I know a few people who “traded up” to Oradell, River Edge. They consider it the other side of the tracks or something. What did they get? Perhaps a slightly better POS Cape and higher taxes.

    Que Lyrics from the Jeffersons —
    Movin on up
    To the east side.
    We finally got a piece of the pie.

  37. Juice Box says:

    re: # 35 – Grim – I have your answer either #38 or #40 in moderation however.Please Release me….

  38. Ottoman says:

    Color of the people who inhabit them and likelihood of that changing.

    Fast Eddie: What is the allure of Oradell, River Edge etc.?…..I was there with my son on Monday for a doctor’s appointment……the hills and highways mean that the roads are all tight, compressed, and frankly a PIA…..the housing stock appeared to be a pile of crap…..frankly, based on the drivers, there appeared to be tons of mirthless old people…..the damned area is downright claustrophobic…….you’d be a caged rat there….

  39. Ottoman says:

    Neoliberalism at its finest. Indoctrinate them in the womb and they’ll never question their corporate overlords.

    “Google going after grade schoolers? Jimmy sends an IM to Jenny about meeting after field hockey practice and Google serves him an add to buy her new cleats?

    If it wasn’t being done by a $400B company with the second largest market cap in America, everyone would see it for just plain creepy — like the corner newsstand shopkeeper who sold kids smokes when no one else was in the store, or a few other things kept under the counter if they knew to ask.”

  40. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [26] joyce – so long as Google is trying to sell us Harvard sweatshirts in 6 years I’ll be complacent and/or complicit;-)

    Expat,
    Regarding google/classroom …

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229408

  41. Juice Box says:

    Google is just taking a page from Microsoft book. Microsoft has been at the indocrination game much much longer than Google.

    Once you become a regular user of product X it becomes difficult to switch to product Y

    Heck name any product X, or Y

    Coke or Pepsi

  42. Libturd in the City says:

    “Everyone talk about …..Pop Muzik”

    I didn’t know Depeche sang that!

    Grim…thanks for the lesson on Vodka and headaches. Speaking of ingredients we don’t know much about…Baby Gator loves yogurt covered raisins. As I was feeding him a few the other day (SunMaid brand btw), I happened to look at the ingredients and noticed something called ‘titanium dioxide’. I recognized that ingredient as a bleach for high end printing paper as I heard it mentioned in a couple of paper mill tours. So I google it and find out it’s primarily used in paints and varnishes and as a sunblock in suntan lotion. Plus it’s carcinogenic. Processed food is evil!

    On another topic, I helped my son log in to his google drive, which his school created.

  43. NJGator says:

    Captain Cheapo needs to read more food labels. This will get me greater license to shop at Whole Paycheck and buy more fancy kitchen toys like my Vitamix.

  44. Libturd in the City says:

    Since we bought the Vitamixer, I noticed the stand mixer has been collecting cobwebs.

  45. Libturd in the City says:

    stand

  46. grim says:

    Titanium dioxide is in everything, isn’t it? Isn’t it what makes most every white product white?

  47. Ben says:

    Hell yes. The growth of the craft beer and craft spirits markets tells me that Americans are willing to pay higher prices for better products manufactured in the USA, more than willing, they’ll go out of they way to seek out and try these kinds of products.

    America is finally coming around to the fact that they don’t have to settle for garbage food. That’s why people will go to Chipotle over Taco Bell. You can eat meat that was cooked in front of you from a fresh cut. Or you can eat meat that was reheated in a plastic bag. The $4 dollar discrepancy in meal cost is easily worth the first option.

  48. Ben says:

    I’m def fortunate for buying at the right time, but come on, I was a 19 year old in a position to buy a house. Give me some credit. How many 19 year olds were doing that in the past 40 years? I have not taken a dollar from my parents since 14 years old. I have consistently had, at the minumum, one job for the past 20 years. I payed my own college. Came out of college pretty much debt free from busting my ass. My grandmother didn’t give me a 100,000 dollar break. She gave me 25,000-50,000 off. I have not inherited anything. How many people out there inherit a big chunk of change and piss it away? You guys are def not being fair to me. In 1999, if it was such a good deal, how come my parents and everyone I talked to didn’t want me to buy the house. Everyone said go with the stock market, real estate is nothing more than a headache and you won’t make much money for the work you put into it. So give me a break already. Acknowledge that I’m not an idiot. That was a brilliant investment move. The returns on my investment say so. I don’t know many people that have pulled that off at that age.

    No one is calling you an idiot for buying the house. We are telling you to stop patting yourself on the back. Anyone who would choose to invest in stocks as opposed to buying a home at a 50k discount is completely stupid. If you bought someone elses home at market value, then you would get props. But seriously, if my grandmother offered me her house at a 50k discount to market value today, I do it. It’s instant money. Like I said, it doesn’t make you “brilliant” as you put it. It makes you fortunate.

    I think someone else put it to you best yesterday. You were born on third base and ran home. Good for you. You didn’t hit a home run. If you had grown up in Bergenfield as opposed to Ridgewood, you wouldn’t have been teaching tennis and you would have had a paper route that paid 5 bucks and hour instead.

    Btw, I’m curious. Did you even document that income on those tennis lessons? I dunno what lending was like in 1999 but I assume they want those tax returns to verify your income.

  49. Anon E. Moose says:

    I suspect this is a business model problem more than anything else. Clearly they overestimated the quantity of foreign wealth looking for expensive pied-à-terres in Manhattan and who would be willing to leave them unoccupied at least 2/3 of the year so that they could be rented out hotel style.

    Even if they would have sold, I suspect the problem would have arisen that the ‘owners’ wanted to use ‘their’ place at the times it was most in demand for short-term rental. Maybe the 120 days/yr limit included restrictions on high-demand times.

    Either way, time for some price discovery, creative destruction style.

    http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2014/09/17/trump_soho_heads_to_foreclosure_due_to_unsellable_condos.php

  50. Anon E. Moose says:

    Chi [29];

    Homecoming Weekend?

  51. grim says:

    52 – Whenever I see something like this, I wonder, was foreclosure a key part of the business plan? The builders and developers already made their money.

    What happens now is the city agrees to remove restrictions.

    Same way that 55+ communities had their age restrictions removed in bankruptcy. Those builders knew damn well that the 55+ model wouldn’t work where they were trying to put in, but the cities wouldn’t agree to non-restricted development. So what the hell, lets agree, get the shovels out, and get to work.

    Owners/Residents will overwhelm the city meetings on the issue, screaming hardship. Owners are allowed to scream much louder than developers are.

  52. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [54];

    Well, DJT is well-versed at the strategic advantages of BK to restructure debt.

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    BTW, I find it hilarious that a town name (M!lford) triggered the spam filter.

  54. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ lost 900 jobs in August

    New Jersey lost 900 jobs in August, as the jobless rate ticked up to 6.6 percent, cooling the sense that the economy is getting significantly stronger.

    The state lost 800 private sector jobs and 100 government jobs, according to the monthly report released by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

    The jobless rate rose from 6.5 percent in July, and remains well above the national rate of 6.1 percent.

    The report also revised the job increase for July, from 5,700 jobs, reducing it to 5,500 jobs.

    The biggest additions in August came in the professional and business services sector, which added 3,200 jobs, and the education and health services sector, which added 600 jobs. The state lost 1,600 construction jobs and 3,000 jobs in the trade, transportation and utilities sector.

  55. grim says:

    We are really shitting the bed today:

    Census data show poverty up, incomes down as NJ economic recovery lags

    Wide disparities

    Households in North Jersey generally lost ground financially in 2013, while those in and around New York City fared better.

    Median household incomes:

    New Jersey
    Bergen County: down 2.7 percent
    Passaic County: down 1.7 percent
    Hudson County: down 3.9 percent
    Morris County: up 3.6 percent

    New York
    Manhattan: up 6 percent
    Brooklyn: up 3.6 percent
    Staten Island: down 3.3 percent
    Nassau: up 1.7 percent
    Westchester County: up 7.4 percent

  56. jj says:

    I got fat stacks of Jessie Pinkman Cash homies!!

  57. grim says:

    Surprised to see that the governor gets so many vacation days…

    Travelin’ man: Chris Christie has spent one-third of his term out of N.J.

  58. Libturd in the City says:

    “Travelin’ man: Chris Christie”

    I’m guessing that the populace prefers it this way.

  59. daddyo says:

    “I don’t think that affects your product, but I am likely going to stock up on some malt. Only concern is shelf life.”

    —-

    Actual malt grain? If it’s pre-ground, shelf life is short, 1-2 weeks. If you leave it whole and grind your own, it will last a long time.

    Even after its old, you can still brew with it, you just won’t get the same flavor. The sugars aren’t going anywhere.

  60. Libturd in the City says:

    I love Whoppers malted milk balls!

  61. grim says:

    Malt, ground or unground, will go slack (lose diastatic potential) after time, storage conditions will largely determine that, but ground will have a significantly lower shelf life than whole. Realistically 6 months unground if you are looking for best flavor, but I’ve heard of people going much longer. As with any grain product, insects and mold will be a concern.

    Malt shortage? Eh, I really doubt anyone is worried.

    Why on earth do you want to stockpile any malt? Are you making beer? Do you have the ability to mill yourself?

    I’ve got a big ass Crankandstein roller mill with an even bigger gear-reduced 1hp motor on it. If you by chance got your sleeve caught in it, I don’t think the mill would stop until it got to your elbow.

  62. Fabius Maximus says:

    #93 Moose (previous thread)
    That’s is part of the point I am making. This guy is doing a pretzel dance with the constitution to try and get what he wants. He’s proposing a $500 max fine for a FL resident caught with a concealed weapon in NYC? or a guy with the 50Cal from AZ in the Pine Barons. “Well its legal in my home state” goes with Ignorance of the law, is not a defense.
    I am no fan of the 10th I think states rights are one of the biggest problems here. 50 different education policies, traffic laws, and yes gun laws.
    He is right that congress could fix it. Pass a law standardizing to the least restrictive state I’m sure would go for it, but match to the most restrictive state and Charlton Heston will start spinning. Even trying to meet in the middle would not go down with the cold dead hands crowd.
    Until you get a law change you have to respect the 10th here.

  63. Ragnar says:

    CC is still doing his victory lap celebrating that one thing he did in his first year.

  64. Libturd in the City says:

    The problem with amnesties, is that those who don’t pay will always wait for an amnesty to pay.

  65. joyce says:

    Fabius dumb@ss,

    Have you read the 10th amendment? It’s referring to anything not enumerated. The 2nd, the 14th, et al are enumerated. Of course you hate lack of central control. And that’s what it is all about, more control in hands of a body that can use legally use force. I find it funny that your first example of things compromised by lack of central control is education… something which never appears in the text of the US constitution.

  66. 1987 Condo says:

    #67…apparently the only lap he has taken….

  67. Deckard says:

    Hi, I’ve been lurking here for a while and enjoying the personalities and insights on real estate in NJ. After renting for the last 7 years my wife and I are buying a townhouse and I’m finding the process pretty confusing. The main thing I need to do right now is settle on a mortgage company, but it’s hard to compare quotes since everyone seems to have a different way of quoting and different definitions of what is included in closing costs. I remember comments about a particular firm having the best rates, so if anyone can give me their contact info I’d appreciate it. Also, does anyone have good/bad experiences with quicken loans? So far they seem to be the lowest. I also need to get a home inspector, so any recommendations for union county would be appreciated.

  68. Fabius Maximus says:

    #70 Joyce
    And that’s the problem. All 50 States head off in all different directions on items that . so Billy bob in Texas gets Creationism, Abby in Trenton get Darwinism. Why do we need 50 drivers licenses, are the cars different?

    You seem to complain about the overreach of bureaucracy and the size of government, but yet back one of the major causes.

  69. 1987 Condo says:

    #72..others will get you the info you request, I suggest you review the financial status of the condo association, understand their current reserve levels, special assessments pending or planned, lawsuits and owner occupied vs rental situation, number of units past due on maintenance, etc.

  70. Fast Eddie says:

    Households in North Jersey generally lost ground financially in 2013.
    Median household incomes:
    New Jersey — Bergen County: down 2.7 percent

    Calling wage inflation!! Come in wage inflation!! Michael? Michael?

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    ChiFi:

    Fast Eddie: What is the allure of Oradell, River Edge etc.?…..I was there with my son on Monday for a doctor’s appointment……the hills and highways mean that the roads are all tight, compressed, and frankly a PIA…..the housing stock appeared to be a pile of crap…..frankly, based on the drivers, there appeared to be tons of mirthless old people…..the damned area is downright claustrophobic…….you’d be a caged rat there….

    I’ve not been to one open house or private showing in either of these towns. Quite frankly, any town that’s seemingly “worth it” is slowly getting squeezed by elements of “another” world anyway. You think any of these places are exempt? I might as well stay where I am and install deterrents and various forms of light weaponry.

  72. joyce says:

    If we operated more closely to the original framework, having more decentralization provides individuals the option to have their basic (and very important) liberties protected everywhere… while being able to go to different states to better suit their personalities. 1 size fits all policices destroys that concept.

    And p.s. Yes, I hate the overreach but more importantly I hate the legalized criminal behavior.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    September 18, 2014 at 1:42 pm
    #70 Joyce
    And that’s the problem. All 50 States head off in all different directions on items that . so Billy bob in Texas gets Creationism, Abby in Trenton get Darwinism. Why do we need 50 drivers licenses, are the cars different?

    You seem to complain about the overreach of bureaucracy and the size of government, but yet back one of the major causes.

  73. Michael says:

    Do you have any idea what the market conditions were like in 1999 for real estate and the stock market? Stock market was raging and real estate sucked. Not many people wanted to purchase real estate. The late 80’s were a bubble for real estate. The 90’s it was looked upon as useless as an investment. So save me the crap. I was 19 and in position to purchase an investment property. Most adults couldn’t do that back then. To me, that is the brilliant part. That I was in a position to buy a home at 19 (. So stop taking the credit away from me and acting like I was given a house.

    I said the price discount might have been between 25,000 and 50,000 off. Why, because who knows what people were willing to pay for it back then. People were not exactly jumping over people to buy a home in 1999.

    My parents co-signed for my loan and I had more than the tennis job.

    Ben says:
    September 18, 2014 at 11:10 am
    I’m def fortunate for buying at the right time, but come on, I was a 19 year old in a position to buy a house. Give me some credit. How many 19 year olds were doing that in the past 40 years? I have not taken a dollar from my parents since 14 years old. I have consistently had, at the minumum, one job for the past 20 years. I payed my own college. Came out of college pretty much debt free from busting my ass. My grandmother didn’t give me a 100,000 dollar break. She gave me 25,000-50,000 off. I have not inherited anything. How many people out there inherit a big chunk of change and piss it away? You guys are def not being fair to me. In 1999, if it was such a good deal, how come my parents and everyone I talked to didn’t want me to buy the house. Everyone said go with the stock market, real estate is nothing more than a headache and you won’t make much money for the work you put into it. So give me a break already. Acknowledge that I’m not an idiot. That was a brilliant investment move. The returns on my investment say so. I don’t know many people that have pulled that off at that age.

    No one is calling you an idiot for buying the house. We are telling you to stop patting yourself on the back. Anyone who would choose to invest in stocks as opposed to buying a home at a 50k discount is completely stupid. If you bought someone elses home at market value, then you would get props. But seriously, if my grandmother offered me her house at a 50k discount to market value today, I do it. It’s instant money. Like I said, it doesn’t make you “brilliant” as you put it. It makes you fortunate.

    I think someone else put it to you best yesterday. You were born on third base and ran home. Good for you. You didn’t hit a home run. If you had grown up in Bergenfield as opposed to Ridgewood, you wouldn’t have been teaching tennis and you would have had a paper route that paid 5 bucks and hour instead.

    Btw, I’m curious. Did you even document that income on those tennis lessons? I dunno what lending was like in 1999 but I assume they want those tax returns to verify your income.

  74. joyce says:

    So 20% discount and parent’s cosigned… you were given nothing, well done.

  75. Libturd in the City says:

    Deckard.

    Take your best quote from Quicken to a local mortgage broker and see if they will beat it. As for the differences, just google APR. I’ve never had any luck with commercial banks. As for the inspector, there’s always the uberinspector.

  76. Libturd in the City says:

    “I said the price discount might have been between 25,000 and 50,000 off.”

    Sounds like granny just might have ripped off her own grandson!

  77. Toxic Crayons says:

    The NJ State law that Shaneen Allen is being prosecuted under is a poorly written law. Lawmakers who voted for it are now publicly saying they never intended it to be used to prosecute someone like her. Please tell me why she should be put in a cage for 3 years and how that would benefit society.

    You misunderstand how this country was designed. There are specific individual rights described in the constitution that no state, local, or federal government has the authority to violate.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    September 18, 2014 at 1:15 pm
    #93 Moose (previous thread)
    That’s is part of the point I am making. This guy is doing a pretzel dance with the constitution to try and get what he wants. He’s proposing a $500 max fine for a FL resident caught with a concealed weapon in NYC? or a guy with the 50Cal from AZ in the Pine Barons. “Well its legal in my home state” goes with Ignorance of the law, is not a defense.
    I am no fan of the 10th I think states rights are one of the biggest problems here. 50 different education policies, traffic laws, and yes gun laws.
    He is right that congress could fix it. Pass a law standardizing to the least restrictive state I’m sure would go for it, but match to the most restrictive state and Charlton Heston will start spinning. Even trying to meet in the middle would not go down with the cold dead hands crowd.
    Until you get a law change you have to respect the 10th here.

  78. jj says:

    Michael I bought my house late 1999 and I dont think it was a great investment. And I paid 20K below market.

    If I took money I spent on house in 1999/2000 and bought 30 year treasury bonds and reinvested the income into the S&P 500 I would be way ahead.

    Also even if I bought the house I also should have sold house Spring of 2007 and bought 30 year treasuries and reinvested the income in the S&P 500.

    I did have free rent these last years which is biggest value.

  79. Ragnar says:

    I don’t care that much about the grandma thing. One of the reasons people work hard to accumulate wealth and knowledge is for the pleasure of being able to pass it along to worthy heirs. A total screw-up would have taken the house and mismanaged it or flipped it into a new car.
    My problem with certain people is their chaotic contradictory thought processes.

  80. joyce says:

    Contradictory for some, schizophrenic for others…

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [82] toxic,

    “You misunderstand how this country was designed. ”

    Exactly. I don’t even try to explain it, a waste of effort and bandwidth. To be fair, many americans misunderstand as well, or perhaps more to the point, want their view to be the accepted one.

    I’ve opposed people like that frequently before agencies and judges. I always won.

  82. Michael says:

    You guys are insane. You act like I was given a house. Don’t you think the other grandchildren would have flipped out. Don’t you think my brother and sister would have flipped out. Stop acting like I was just handed a house. I finally realize it, it’s a waste of time, you are just jealous. You look for any reason to take away any ounce of credit that I made a good move.

    JJ, it was a multi-family. It wasn’t a single family house. I was doing it for investment purposes.

    It’s funny, you guys bust my balls, but cheer on the billionaires who had everything handed to them. Warren Buffet has been trading on inside information his whole life. You guys suck.

  83. joyce says:

    What is your stance on how judges’ opinions can split on a single case or worse be completely overturned at the next level?

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    September 18, 2014 at 2:51 pm
    [82] toxic,

    To be fair, many americans misunderstand as well, or perhaps more to the point, want their view to be the accepted one.

    I’ve opposed people like that frequently before agencies and judges. I always won.

  84. Ragnar says:

    You’re right Michael, these guys suck. They don’t deserve receiving your wisdom every day. I think you should find a community of thoughtful individuals that would appreciate what you have to say, and boycott these guys the rest of your life. You’ll have the last laugh then.

  85. Libturd in the City says:

    I love the fruit.

    He’s consistently inconsistent.

  86. Libturd in the City says:

    Take Anon with you.

  87. grim says:

    I have no problem from Michael buying a house from family. I’ll take it one step further.

    I think most white Americans are stupid in that they take out a mortgage from a bank, and not from other family members.

    In many communities in the US, borrowing is done within the community, and it ensures that profits are kept within the community.

    If Michael got a mortgage from his parents, and his parents were the beneficiaries of the interest he paid, would they be idiots or brilliant?

    I know of many communities across NJ where this internal lending and support is one of the primary reasons for their success.

  88. grim says:

    I also suspect a good number of “cash sales” across the US are these types of activities.

  89. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fabu [66];

    Realpolotik notwithstanding, what part of “shall not be infringed” do you find difficult? As I read the 10th, is applies to “Powers not… prohibited by [the Constitution] to the States”. I.e., the 10th fails to give the states right to suspend free speech, for example among others.

  90. Libturd in the City says:

    All loans I took from my mom, pre-college, were with interest. Also, if you move back home, you have to pay rent.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    (88) joyce,

    First, it may come as a shock, but judges differ on their interpretation of laws, regulations, and constitutional provisions. They just do.

    Second, and this is inside baseball, the law clerks may differ on interpretation as well. Case in point: Once my judge was sitting by designation on the Cir. Court of Appeals. She had two cases with identical facts. I worked on one and a co-clerk worked on another. We each arrived at the same result (reversal) but by different routes. And we each argued vociferously for our version. In the end, the judge signed two opinions that examined the same issue and got to the same result but by different routes.

    As for appeals, same thing. In fact, sometimes a judge may think a result mandated by law to be “unjust” and secretly hopes the appellate court will overturn it.

    The fact remains that there is enough “wiggle room” in our laws and methods for judicial interpretation to result in disparate opinions. Add in judicial discretion at the trial level and this compounds the issue. There is little that can be done here; the obvious solution, using a “bright line rule” isn’t always workable because of the myriad of factual differences that may be relevant or impactful.

    Finally, consider that the cases that you focus on here, that are contentious or make news, are but a tiny fraction of all tried cases, which themselves are a small fraction of all filed cases.

  92. joyce says:

    Since personal discretion plays such an integral role, would you favor less power for individual judges (civil & criminal) and prosecutors (criminal only, of course)?

  93. A Home Buyer says:

    82 – Toxic

    Speaking of poor laws: A snip-it from the NJ Criminal Code of Justice:

    Carrying a knife on your person is all but expressively stated as being illegal between these two items.

    (Note: If you have a pocket knife on your person I have been told by contractors it is very important to NOT answer “yes” if a police officer asks if you a weapon, but instead state you have a work tool and describe its use. They will haul you in for it)


    2C:39-3(d) “Certain weapons. Any person who knowingly has in his possession any gravity knife, switchblade knife, dagger, dirk, stiletto, billy, blackjack, metal knuckle, sandclub, slingshot, cestus or similar leather band studded with metal filings or razor blades imbedded in wood, ballistic knife, without any explainable lawful purpose, is guilty of a crime of the fourth degree.”

    2C:39-5(d) “Other weapons. Any person who knowingly has in his possession any other weapon under circumstances not manifestly appropriate for such lawful uses as it may have is guilty of a crime of the fourth degree.”

  94. joyce says:

    Home Buyer,
    Wanna bet that self-defense would not be “interpreted” to be included in the above lawful purposes?

  95. Fabius Maximus says:

    Toxic / Moose
    I get the whole state as the checks and balances of an over reaching federal gvmt. But this boils down to canceled carry is not a right and the state has the power to regulate it.
    In a similar vein, I can drive 75mph legally in west v1rginia, but do the same in Maryland and it can be 3 days in the big house, even on a first offense.

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [98] joyce,

    That’s a rather broad topic, but within reason, I would say yes.

  97. joyce says:

    101
    Retard #2,
    How are you comparing local traffic laws to 2nd amendment rights? I chose to say ‘2nd amendmen’ and not guns laws to re-emphasize the fact that the latter is in the bill of rights.

    Also, NJ doesn’t allow ANY carrying… let alone concealed.

  98. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
  99. joyce says:

    Comrade,

    I was trying for a combination of rhetorical questions, leading questions, and some genuine ones.

    In my opinion, if we have a system that can (mis)interpret statements such as:
    – shall not be infringed
    – congress shall pass no law
    – Trial of all Crimes shall be by Jury
    (among many others)

    …then we are not a nation of laws.

  100. joyce says:

    all, shall, no, not … dont see any wiggle room in those

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [105, 106] joyce,

    Ah, but there is, or at least there are exceptions, interpretations, etc.

    Lets take the First Amendment, for example. It has long been held that the literal text isn’t absolute, e.g., no right to yell fire in a crowded theater. Shall, must, not are qualifiers, but you still have to define the relevant provision. Does originalism help? Surely, the founding fathers meant to protect political speech but there is nothing to suggest they intended to protect pron. Yet we have extended the 1st to pron and are debating still political speech.

    But the text itself, the original intent, and stare decisis take one only so far. At some point, a judge has to put him or herself in the Solomonic position of asking “What would Jesus Do?” in a secular sense.

    I see where you are coming from, and I could argue it (both from a personal or adversarial position) all day. Alas, time doesn’t permit it.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    And as for Shaneen Allen, I think that the right has been applying its energy in the wrong place. If you really want to gum up the works, the most effective use of energy and assets is to petition the PA AG to refuse extradition to New Jersey. Unfortunately, the PA AG is a democrat and the gov’s office is going to flip blue, so no help there. But if the legislature gets involved, it could generate needed press and ATEOTD, the only real workable solution is to bring pressure on the Atlantic County officials (who, IMHO, were scum before this case ever came up), and Christie to announce that he will pardon her no matter what happens.

  103. Michael says:

    Question? If someone was able to purchase a house for 10% off or 20% off, were they just given the house, or did they make a good move? Every day there are investment deals made at this price cut, yet you cheer on the millionaires and billionaires as savy, but say I was handed the house. Funny how biased you guys are. It’s insane. I don’t know any other 19 year olds in a position to close this deal. Totally spitting in my face.

  104. grim (13)-

    The surface has barely been scratched. If your whiskey is good, you are going to do very, very well. Always room for more quality in this sector.

    “The growth of the craft beer and craft spirits markets tells me that Americans are willing to pay higher prices for better products manufactured in the USA, more than willing, they’ll go out of they way to seek out and try these kinds of products.”

  105. So I shouldn’t have a diet based on cheap vodka and titanium dioxide?

  106. stu (81)-

    Any sorta grandma that wanted to help the kid would’ve held the note herself, at terms that would give her tax advantage and favor the grandkid. With a little ingenuity, she could’ve even pulled the whole thing off as a 1031 or created a trust and had the trust make the sale. I think the likely story is that she saw Michael as a schnook and the parents co-signing the loan as patsies. Why else would an aging relative who’s cashing out on a private sale want the entirety of her proceeds at a closing?

    “Sounds like granny just might have ripped off her own grandson!”

  107. michael (87)-

    No, I personally hate Buffett too. He’s like a scaled-up version of you. With a brain.

    “It’s funny, you guys bust my balls, but cheer on the billionaires who had everything handed to them. Warren Buffet has been trading on inside information his whole life. You guys suck.”

  108. For some people, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

    “In a recent sit-down with Sports Illustrated’s Peter King, Peyton Manning more or less admitted that Colorado’s decision to legalize mariju@na has been a huge boon for his pizza stores.

    Weeks before the state passed a legalization amendment in 2012, the Broncos quarterback began snapping up Papa John’s franchises in the Denver area. The move prompted even the most casual observer to deduce that Peyton, a wily old fox, had bought the stores to capitalize on the impending munchies boom that would sweep the state.

    And those observers would appear to be right, if we read between the lines Manning is dishing out.”

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2203196-peyton-manning-infers-pizza-business-is-good-in-colorado-due-to-legalization

  109. Street Justice says:

    Believe it or not, the PA AG leans slightly toward the anti-gun stance. She has been systematically dismantling carry rights in PA by not honoring many common out of state CCL’s including Utah and Florida.

    I think the pro gun militias should stand in front of her house in PA and block her extradition should it come to that.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    September 18, 2014 at 5:55 pm
    And as for Shaneen Allen, I think that the right has been applying its energy in the wrong place. If you really want to gum up the works, the most effective use of energy and assets is to petition the PA AG to refuse extradition to New Jersey. Unfortunately, the PA AG is a democrat and the gov’s office is going to flip blue, so no help there. But if the legislature gets involved, it could generate needed press and ATEOTD, the only real workable solution is to bring pressure on the Atlantic County officials (who, IMHO, were scum before this case ever came up), and Christie to announce that he will pardon her no matter what happens.

  110. Ben says:

    Do you have any idea what the market conditions were like in 1999 for real estate and the stock market? Stock market was raging and real estate sucked. Not many people wanted to purchase real estate. The late 80′s were a bubble for real estate. The 90′s it was looked upon as useless as an investment. So save me the crap. I was 19 and in position to purchase an investment property. Most adults couldn’t do that back then. To me, that is the brilliant part. That I was in a position to buy a home at 19 (. So stop taking the credit away from me and acting like I was given a house.

    Sure do my fellow millennial. It didn’t take a genius to realize that stocks were over hyped and due for a fall.

    I said the price discount might have been between 25,000 and 50,000 off. Why, because who knows what people were willing to pay for it back then. People were not exactly jumping over people to buy a home in 1999.=

    There’s always people looking to buy a house.


    My parents co-signed for my loan and I had more than the tennis job.

    Gotcha…so 25k discount and you had to use someone elses income. Good for you. Glad it worked out. Once again, I would reiterate, you weren’t a genius. You were fortunate enough to have someone sell you the home at a discount and have two other people cosign a loan for you so you can rent it out and pay off the mortgage. You were presented an opportunity to have a cash flow positive investment from the start, I fail to see why this was such a genius move. The risk on the investment was a big fat ZERO.

  111. Ben, you might as well be discussing Kirkegaard with your cat.

  112. Stupid is as stupid does.

  113. Michael says:

    I was fortunate, but I also created my own fortune. That’s what you don’t get. I was 19. How many 19yr olds you know are putting together deals like this. I took whatever resources that were available to me and made it happen. If I did what all my other friends were doing at that age, this never would have happened. But I’m a money maker and at 19 my mind was already racing trying to make money make money. I knew working was for fools, you only made someone else rich. So I wanted to start investing early. So I took every dollar I saved from ages 14-19 and put a down payment on a house. So pardon that I find it insulting that you guys are spitting on a financial investment that I am very proud of. You guys laugh at me and think I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to investing, but my record speaks for itself. I even told you stock tips on here that you guys didn’t take. Like xolepa stated the other day, it doesn’t matter who I bought it from, all that matters is that I got it done. That’s how I know he is true investor(aka money maker). Business has no face. He gets it, but you guys don’t. If you did, you would realize it’s rare to find a 19 year old back in 1999 making deals to purchase income properties. That’s a savvy move in any unbiased investors book worthy of recognition as something pretty amazing. I would love to see the data on how many 19 year olds were purchasing income properties in 1999.

    “Once again, I would reiterate, you weren’t a genius. You were fortunate enough to have someone sell you the home at a discount and have two other people cosign a loan for you so you can rent it out and pay off the mortgage. You were presented an opportunity to have a cash flow positive investment from the start, I fail to see why this was such a genius move. The risk on the investment was a big fat ZERO.”

  114. joyce says:

    Early on in Passion Fruit’s arrival, he argued that ‘connections’ was the only way to get ahead. He criticized all others who thought they achieved stuff on their own or mostly on their own.

    I should mentioned he had no first hand knowledge of how others have succeeded or failed; he just assumed. Now that he’s spelled out how he was given a 50yd head start … he wants us to think he’s the fastest guy on the team.

  115. joyce says:

    You see, that’s my point. [I hope you don’t think I’ve read a handful of excerpts and am winging it.]

    “exceptions and interpretations” that were invented out of thin air. No basis for them except at the time it was deemed necessary most likely due to some vague reference to ‘public safety’ or ‘governmental interest’

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    September 18, 2014 at 5:37 pm
    [105, 106] joyce,

    Ah, but there is, or at least there are exceptions, interpretations, etc.

    Lets take the First Amendment, for example. It has long been held that the literal text isn’t absolute, e.g., no right to yell fire in a crowded theater. Shall, must, not are qualifiers, but you still have to define the relevant provision. Does originalism help? Surely, the founding fathers meant to protect political speech but there is nothing to suggest they intended to protect pron. Yet we have extended the 1st to pron and are debating still political speech.

    But the text itself, the original intent, and stare decisis take one only so far. At some point, a judge has to put him or herself in the Solomonic position of asking “What would Jesus Do?” in a secular sense.

    I see where you are coming from, and I could argue it (both from a personal or adversarial position) all day. Alas, time doesn’t permit it.

  116. joyce says:

    Two much longer posts about the fire/theatre are in moderation… tried to rewrite to make it through the filter to no avail.

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  118. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [123] joyce,

    Hey, I don’t much care for it either but everyone knows it and can see the distinction.

    As for having this argument, while I appreciate it, please don’t expect robust, detailed and well-developed analysis and debate. I usually don’t have time to get into a lot of detail, and until 10/15, I will be busier than usual, which makes any responses even harder. I haven’t had time to engage Michael, who at least has put things out there worth discussing, even if I have a different take on it.

    In short, I’d love to debate this but I don’t have the time. It’s only because you have a reasonably well thought out position that I don’t give you the Fabius treatment.

  119. It all depends on what your definition of “is”, is.

  120. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Last

  121. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Wrong again, Expat.

    In other news (or not), Scotland votes No.

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