NAR calls rent and price growth “unhealthy”

From the WSJ:

Home Sales Edge Up, but Rising Prices and Tight Supply Loom as Headwind

Sales of previously owned homes ticked up last month, but buyers are facing a dynamic of rising home prices and shrinking inventory that make homes less affordable.

Existing-home sales increased 1.2% last month from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.88 million, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. Sales in February were up 4.7% from the same month a year earlier.

The median sale price for a previously owned home was up 7.5% from a year earlier to $202,600 in February.

Existing-home sales remain lackluster more than five years after the recession, and the latest price growth is at an “unhealthy” pace at this stage of the recovery, NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said.

The price increase “is certainly good news for homeowners but it is negatively impacting affordability for people who want to buy a home,” Mr. Yun said Monday.

Existing home sales fell slightly in 2014, despite a modest uptick in the second half of the year as the labor market strengthened and mortgage rates remained at historic lows. Still, sales of existing homes, which account for roughly 90% of all purchases in the U.S., have yet to approach prerecession levels.

Meanwhile, fewer homes were available for sale in February compared with a year earlier, a factor Mr. Yun said may be driving up prices.

At the current sales pace, it would take 4.6 months to exhaust the supply of homes on the market. Total housing inventory at the end of February increased 1.6% from a month earlier, to 1.89 million existing homes available for sale. But the increase was small compared with the typical rise in inventory from January to February, which has averaged about 5.6% since 2000, Mr. Yun said.

“It’s all about inventory,” Mr. Yun said. “The only way to truly get that inventory is for the home builders to bring those new homes onto the market. “When that happens some of the existing homeowners buy those new homes and thereby release their existing homes on the market.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

58 Responses to NAR calls rent and price growth “unhealthy”

  1. Toxic Crayons says:

    You could prolly still do that in parts of NW NJ.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, the loan snark says:
    March 24, 2015 at 12:09 am
    [42] redux

    And I can legally fire off my AR in my own woods. Can’t do that in Jersey.

  2. anon (the good one) says:

    canadians are white, so no problem there

    FKA 2010 Buyer says:
    March 23, 2015 at 11:21 am
    So Ted Cruz is the first to but his name in the hat. Wonder if the birthers are going to go after him or figure out that it’s a stupid argument.

  3. leftwing says:

    Daisy Red Ryder BB Gun = AK47 in NJ. Zero difference legally.

    Anon, funny, I travel in circles of people certainly right of center and the race colored glasses regarding dear leader during the past six years always seem to come almost exclusively from the colorblind left.

    Great Serf, from yesterday, there is a difference between living and subsisting too. When do you leave the house in the morning, do you own that house (or merely sharecrop it from the mortgage co), when do you return to that house in the evening, and how much do you save annually from all that ‘highest income’?

    Sorry, in a mood. Liberal with an agenda makes up a false felony, gets national coverage, disparages a group of individuals, shuts down their living quarters, and shuts down the entire social system of said group. Entire event proven to be a vicious lie and false report. She gets: (a) investigated and expelled from the university (b) arrested for participating in a false police filing (c) forced to sit through hours of re-education on the topic of her action as her alleged perpetrators were forced to do (d) compelled to publicly apologize and accept responsibility for her reputation destroying actions (e) no consequences. Guess.

  4. grim says:

    And I can legally fire off my AR in my own woods. Can’t do that in Jersey.

    This gets awfully boring after the first $50.

  5. Toxic Crayons says:

    Ted Cruz is arguably responsible for Steve Lonegan’s loss to Corey Booker.

  6. Toxic Crayons says:

    4 – a 9MM AR carbine is much cheaper to shoot and many of them accept glock or beretta magazines.

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is it any different anywhere else? Cheaper house to go with lower income. At least here, you have the potential to make big money and move up the class ladder. I’m able to save a good portion of money while maintaining a higher standard of living. So it can be done. Also starting a business in nj has its disadvantages, but it also has its advantages. It’s the most densely populated state, meaning starting a business here gives you access to a lot of workers and customers.

    “Great Serf, from yesterday, there is a difference between living and subsisting too. When do you leave the house in the morning, do you own that house (or merely sharecrop it from the mortgage co), when do you return to that house in the evening, and how much do you save annually from all that ‘highest income’?”

  8. Libturd in Union says:

    Who is ted cruz?

  9. JJ says:

    MTA Finance Chief Touts 40-Year Bond
    BY PAUL BURTON
    MAR 23, 2015 2:49pm ET
    The use of 40-year bonds to retire $300 million of bond anticipation notes received favorable reaction in the capital markets, said the finance director of New York’s MTA.

    So MTA just raised fares and now they are doing 40 year bond offerings at a period of very low muni interest rates and retail investors desperate for yield.

    Sounds like a lose lose situation. MTA “taking advantage” of low rates piles on tons of more long term debt and retail investors learn a very hard lesson in duration. Muni bonds with a maturity date of 2055, will be slaughtered beyond belief if rates rise.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    Libturd in Union says:
    March 24, 2015 at 8:51 am
    Who is ted cruz?

    TED is an acronym that refers to Technology, Entertainment & Design…..
    https://www.ted.com/about/our-organization

    So this version is called the TED Cruise which is an opportunity for the uninitiated (or better described as the soon to be inculcated) to obtain the Norwalk virus……..

    Adjusting the name to TED Cruz is just stylizing for marketing purposes.

  11. Libturd in Union says:

    Gator and I have cruised at least twenty times and we never caught a virus. Though I always seem to end up with pink eye. We do wash our hands like OCD patients and by the time we get home, our skin is so dry that we look like Abe Vigoda.

    I could only imagine how annoying a Ted Crui(z)e would be. I imagine it would feel like being trapped on an island filled with Blumpkin heads, unlimited mediocre food, bad entertainment and a krappy casin0.

  12. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [2] Anon

    True. One was born in Canada and the other was born in America, go figure.

  13. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Average NYC down payments hit nearly $350K: report

    New Yorkers’ down payments on their homes are about ten times the national average, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.

    Home prices in New York far exceed the national average of course, but New Yorkers are also paying a higher percentage of the total purchase price upfront. While the national average down payment is $31,723, or just 14 percent of the total purchase price, the average down payment for the New York and New Jersey markets is $347,614, or 37 percent of an average home price of $935,000. In Brooklyn, buyers paid $163,537, or 28 percent, on an average home price of $580,000.

    http://therealdeal.com/blog/2015/03/17/average-nyc-down-payments-hit-nearly-350k-report/

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  15. Libturd in Union says:

    This would go far to explain why the rents I am collecting are so amazingly high. I do not expect this to continue indefinitely, but I’ll take it when I can get it.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    This is satire, right?

    “It’s all about inventory,” Mr. Yun said. “The only way to truly get that inventory is for the home builders to bring those new homes onto the market. “When that happens some of the existing homeowners buy those new homes and thereby release their existing homes on the market.”

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    Why would you even take a listing that you know full well is going to sit until the end of time? What sane individual would buy a double-wide in Wash. Twp. for $650,000? This house should be a lead news story on network national news.

    Hey realtors, here’s a clue: You want to entice buyers? Convince the fat f.uck ignorant sellers to list the house so it can sell.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1509650&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  18. JJ says:

    If Mr. Yum thinks homes are too expensive and rents too high maybe realtors can work commission free for remainder of year that would lower selling prices 5-6% overnight and lower rent prices 1/12 as the fee on a rental is usually one months rent.

  19. JJ says:

    Re 17, that double wide has a huge plot of 100 X 188, the land alone is most likely worth 500K

  20. Pete says:

    #17,

    Wow, they paid $650,000 for that in 2010. Thats $465/sq ft in Wash Twp. That may be a record of overpaying.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    JJ,

    Re 17, that double wide has a huge plot of 100 X 188, the land alone is most likely worth 500K

    I just picked myself up from the floor. Please, the gold flakes in the soil is one of the last maneuvers pulled out of the play book of the house tour guide. If you have amateur flipers buying repos in the prestigious sicomac (eyes rolling) section of Wyckoff for 310K, you’d be he11 bent to buy this piece of sh1t on “Deliverance” Lake in Wash. Twp. for this stup1d price.

  22. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [17] Fast Eddie

    What are “Mandatory lake association fees for lake privileges.”

    I love the white dishwasher and frig. It goes perfectly with the stainless steel stove and microwave.

  23. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Renovated home sells before job is finished

    The listing: Four-bedroom colonial

    Location: Paramus

    Listed by: Linda Port of Re/Max Property Center in Paramus

    On the market: 2 1/2 months

    Asking price: $699,000

    The game plan: A builder had bought the home, which started out as a Cape Cod, from an estate. The builder did a complete renovation and expansion. Port listed the house on the multiple listing service and advertised it on the Internet while it was still under construction.

    She said the home drew a lot of interest because it was like a new house — but less expensive than new construction in town, which was going in the $800,000 to $900,000 range. It drew multiple offers, and the buyers signed a contract before it was done, so they were able to choose tile, flooring and other finishes.

    The result: Another agent brought in the buyers, and the home sold for $709,000.

    — Kathleen Lynn

    http://www.northjersey.com/real-estate/most-recent-home-sales/renovated-home-sells-before-job-is-finished-multiple-bids-sale-in-2-1-2-months-1.730660

  24. JJ says:

    I would knock it down and build a ten unit condo on that plot. Sell them all at 300K a pop.

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 24, 2015 at 12:18 pm
    JJ,

    Re 17, that double wide has a huge plot of 100 X 188, the land alone is most likely worth 500K

    I just picked myself up from the floor. Please, the gold flakes in the soil is one of the last maneuvers pulled out of the play book of the house tour guide. If you have amateur flipers buying repos in the prestigious sicomac (eyes rolling) section of Wyckoff for 310K, you’d be he11 bent to buy this piece of sh1t on “Deliverance” Lake in Wash. Twp. for this stup1d price.

  25. yome says:

    Is this move about 2016 election year? Republicans hurting the Rich? It cant be

    According to a summary of the legislation released by two House committees on Tuesday, individuals with incomes of between $133,501 and $160,000 would pay 65% of premium costs, up from 50% now. For couples, the new percentage applies for incomes between $267,001 and $320,000.

    For individuals making more than $160,000 annually, and for couples with incomes of $320,000 or above, new premiums would go even higher: from 65% now to 80%.

    The higher premiums would take effect in 2018.

    Also read: How the bipartisan Medicare deal will hurt retirees.

    In addition to preventing cuts in doctors’ Medicare fees, the legislation would also extend health-care funds for children and low-income Americans.

    House Republicans said in a press release on Tuesday asking wealthier seniors to “pay a little more” for their Medicare coverage “would affect a small population” but yield billions of dollars in savings.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-who-would-pay-more-for-medicare-under-the-doc-fix-deal-2015-03-24?link=MW_home_latest_news

  26. JJ says:

    Top-ranked business schools are raising tuition by about 4 percent this fall, bumping up the cost of classes for the 2015-16 academic year to almost $60,000 on average. Throw in room and board, fees, and textbooks, and it will cost as much as $99,000 to attend B-school next year.

  27. grim says:

    Lakefront property in North Jersey in any decent town carries a MASSIVE pricing premium. MASSIVE. A nice looking property with a picturesque view out the back, at least $100,000 premium, compared to the exact same house across the street.

  28. grim says:

    I wouldn’t say it is at all uncommon for a small lakefront cape in a decent town to get approx $500k. Hell, you’d need to pay that to get lakefront in Wayne.

  29. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [26] JJ

    What part time job; sorry what full time job can a teenager get to pay for that so they can graduate with no student loan debt?

  30. Ragnar says:

    I got my NYU MBA part time while working in investments, paid 100% out of pocket, and never took out debt.
    Keep in mind full time MBA programs only take 2 years, and if it’s a top school the ROI tends to be good, and justifies borrowing. It’s not like borrowing for 4 years to study art history.

  31. grim says:

    Business school student that can’t make money probably shouldn’t be going to business school, waste of time and money.

  32. Ragnar says:

    Is JJ talking about undergrad?
    Unless parents are wealthy, I’d suggest that a student strong enough to get into a top undergrad b school could get some scholarships and go to a less expensive undergrad B school & live at home. Save money, take the GMAT, and be ready to get MBA from the top school after working 4-5 years.

  33. Ragnar says:

    People in business tend to judge you by your last degree more than your first degree.

  34. JJ says:

    I also got my MBA for free. Talk about crazy application process. I apply Baruch, Pace and Fordham. I really wanted to only go to Fordham. It has a great rep, it is in Manhattan in midtown and a few of my IBM friends raved about it.

    So Baruch mess up my application, and sends it to Executive MBA, not regular and too late to reverse, so I go what the heck, I get interviewed, I need a letter from Employer sponsoring me and I get in. Then I find out I graduate in two years but program is every other friday and every other sat. I go back to work and was told look you just hit us up for a expensive Executive MBA, we agreed to pay 100%. But you have to use vacation days on those Fridays, yikes no vacation for me for two years. No way. Pace looked like a homeless shelter when I went there so no way. So on to Fordham my dream school, turns out it had tri-mesters. Three times a year. I go great. Then they say I miss cut off for the next semester so I have to wait a few months I go fine. Then the bomb shell. They were going to let me graduate by taking 45 credits and waiving 24 credits. If you have a college business degree they waive a ton of courses within five years of graduation. But next semester was a little over five years!!!

    So like a schmuck I run to SJU my alla matter and ask them when is deadline to apply and get in to get credits waived they go today!!!!! I run out there, just missed office hours and had this dejected sad look on my face facing 24 extra credits due to damm train. Guard goes to me what is wrong. I tell him story. He goes you do realize deadline is today and I have key, give it to me, I will write a note received today and put on the admissions pile.

    Honestly, that five year rule is a bear, most folks dont know and I have staff occassionally who want to go back to school around 27-30 and then back out when they realize they now have to do 69-70 credits.

    My company did pay for whole SJU MBA so I guess I should not whine. I lived with my brother at the time in an apt in city and he went to NYU and one class we had same text book for same class. Big difference was I had a midterm and final. He had tons of group projects, a paper, they did the questions at back of chapter as home work assignments. Basically, a lot more busy work and a lot more campus interaction with other students. I just came and left.

  35. grim says:

    Just learned that I could make money by providing professional cuddling services.

  36. JJ you just came and left? couldn’t you say that about most of your interactions in the 80s.

    ;)

  37. grim says:

    Cruz signs up for Obamacare?

  38. Libturd in Union says:

    JJ is definitely Lip from Shameless.

  39. JJ says:

    No Pitching Pup Tents Please

    grim says:
    March 24, 2015 at 4:18 pm
    Just learned that I could make money by providing professional cuddling services.

  40. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [37] Grim

    The genius doesn’t own tedcruz.com

    TedCruz.com trolls Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign

    http://news.yahoo.com/ted-cruz-com-fail-website-obama-immigration-142609421.html;_ylt=A0LEVrws1BFV9mEAYRwlnIlQ

  41. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Who knew?

    Leaving no political stone unturned, newly-declared presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) had a very particular answer on Tuesday when asked about his taste in music.

    “You know, music is interesting,” he said on CBS “This Morning.” “I grew up listening to classic rock, and I’ll tell you sort of an odd story.”

    “My music taste changed on 9/11,” he said, followed by a pause.

    Co-host Gayle King nodded.

    “I actually intellectually find this very curious, but on 9/11, I didn’t like how rock music responded,” the senator went on. “And country music, collectively, the way they responded, it resonated with me.”

    Cruz did not specify which rock artists “responded” to the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks in a way that led him to switch genres. But he repeated that he’s been firmly country ever since.

    “I had an emotional reaction that said, ‘these are my people.’ So ever since 2001 I listen to country music,” he concluded.

  42. Ragnar says:

    I guess prog rock never had a chance.

  43. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    How can you not enjoy Jimi playing the Star Spangled Banner

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edeZqCchIYg

  44. Ragnar says:

    Ted Cruz not into Christian rock?
    South Park did a great send up of Christian rock, via Cartman’s band “Faith +1”:
    http://southpark.cc.com/clips/103761/pleasing-jesus

  45. NJT says:

    #27 Grim

    ALMOST bought a small lakefront/back in the mid 90s (Greenpond in Rockaway Twp. Morris County- Lake End road). Now the property taxes would be three times the mortgage! Wish I would have and then sold during peak. Eh, but the wife would have never left unless I…

    Thing was a summer home converted to a full-time residence and needed WORK (nothing I couldn’t handle). Private sale and going for…drumroll please….150 something! Old widow that knew my family. Not only was it lake side it was ON the water (Could dive off the dock that extended from the deck or cast a fishing pole from a bedroom window). Big plus is that it was in a cove off the main lake. SCW (Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda).

    *Natural glacial relict lake with little water level fluctuation. NO inlet streams and one outlet with a small dam that is used to draw the level down if it needs to be after extraordinary precipitation events.

    Damn you! I forgot about that property.

  46. NJT says:

    Almost forgot! A train to NYC was only a few miles down the road on RT. 23.

    Me <—Dummy.

    The septic system (it was a cesspool) scared me off the deal. $20 grand was a fortune to me back then. Oh, yeah, also Yacht Club dues (mandatory).

  47. NJT says:

    *Note to those that have never lived on a lake during a cold winter:

    When the ice expands there are what sounds like explosions and it can go on
    all night. Yeah, lived across the street from one as a kid.

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  50. Essex says:

    I love lakes. But they all seem really small here in NJ.

  51. Essex says:

    Then there is this:

    New Jersey’s economy is paying a heavy price for a decade of negligence.
    The signs of failure are all around us five years after the end of the Great Recession. New Jersey’s job growth rate — measured in fractions of a percentage point — is the second worst in the nation, just ahead of Alaska.
    New Jersey’s middle class has lost billions in income through layoffs, salary cuts and wage freezes. More than 100,000 job seekers have been unemployed for months on end. Thousands more have simply given up looking for work, relying on handouts, family and part-time jobs to make ends meet.

  52. NJT says:

    Yup.

    In other news I’m raising rents with the exception being one tenant…sometimes it’s a ‘win’ for both parties though very rare. Darn girl (single mom…yeah, was reluctant to give her a chance but a local charity backed her up financially) has bounced back from a beating and is clawing her way into being a outstanding citizen. Amazing.

    *Yes, I know all about battered women.

    For the first time in many years I’m surprised by a person that wants to do good, be good and does! WOW! Tough cookie! :). Ain’t many of them.

    Lease with her is still month to month (Almost a year).

    Gotta share this rental story!

    Back in the late 90’s I was renting out a meticulous maintained small house in a lake community. An executive type woman shows up and offers a years rent cash in advance but she does not want to be responsible for lawn maint. ect.

    OK. We renegotiated the price.

    Noticed she was seldom if ever there.

    One day I’m cutting the lawn, trimming the shrubs and she shows up.

    I said “Madam…”

    Her : “What I do is none of your business”.

    Place was spotless at the end of the lease.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    52- Then there is this.

    Catching up

    New Jersey’s drug industry officials said the Garden State is beginning to play catch-up. It has in recent years provided incentives to start-up life sciences companies that are on par with Massachusetts. And voters in 2012 approved a ballot measure to allow the state to raise $750 million that would be spent building up the universities’ science programs.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    54- cont.

    Jones Lang LaSalle this year ranked the New Jersey/New York life sciences market the fifth strongest nationwide. Last year, it was seventh. In 2011, it was second.

    “We have rightly earned the reputation in New Jersey as the medicine chest of the world,” said Dean Paranicas, president and chief executive officer of the HealthCare Institute of New Jersey, a trade group. “We intend to keep it that way.”

    Paranicas said the state has taken steps for a version 2.0.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Like I said. Nj is just going through a transition period. We will bounce back. It’s all about pouring money into education and infrastructure. Make commutes faster and more efficient. Attract the brightest minds. The rest falls into place.

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