April Home Prices Heat Up

From MarketWatch:

U.S. house prices accelerate in April, CoreLogic says

U.S. house prices accelerated further in April, as low inventories and growing sales push costs higher, a leading data provider said Tuesday.

CoreLogic reported a 2.7% monthly advance to take the year-on-year gain to 6.8%.

The spring is traditionally the strongest portion of the year for housing, and data from CoreLogic and other providers suggest an upturn.

“Old-fashion supply and demand, fueled by historically low mortgage rates and improving consumer finances and confidence, continue to push home prices up,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

Dallas and Houston prices are showing few signs of let-up despite the collapse in energy prices. Dallas prices were up 10.3% in the 12 months to April, and Houston prices were up 9.5%. The Washington, D.C., area brought up the rear with just a 1.6% advance.

South Carolina was the strongest state, with an 11.4% advance, while Massachusetts saw a 1.7% drop, one of only four states to register a decline.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

219 Responses to April Home Prices Heat Up

  1. grim says:

    Corelogic has the NY Metro CSBA up 6.3% YOY including distressed, up 6.6% excluding distressed.

    NJ statewide up 3.5% including distressed and 4.1% excluding distressed. NJ Peak to Current at 21.9 including distressed and 17.3 excluding.

  2. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    Green shoots!!!

  3. grim says:

    Everyone wants a casino.

  4. D-FENS says:

    Grim – Headline article in the NJHerald this morning…Sussex County’s State senator is pushing for a c@sino. I’d post the article but because of the subject matter it will probably just go to moderation or be blacklisted. Here’s the link.

    http://www.njherald.com/story/29224407/2015/06/02/oroho-expand-gambling-statewide

  5. D-FENS says:

    I’m not much of a gambler and I don’t really care where they put a c@sino, but why should one area get preferential treatment over another?

  6. leftwing says:

    grim, in mod. think it’s because of ‘h0rny’. Should have known….

  7. leftwing says:

    Marilyn, from last night:

    Good luck. Enjoy your trip to Raleigh, let us know how things turn out.

  8. grim says:

    Clear that casinos outside AC will never happen, with multiple counties now fighting for a casino, there will be considerable opposition by everyone who doesn’t get one. I can’t wait for the proposals that counties that aren’t granted the privilege should get subsidies from the counties that are. Smart players aren’t going to be pushing for a casino, they are going to be pushing for the “what’s in it for me?”

    Like I said above, casinos for everybody!

  9. [4] I was extremely surprised yesterday when Sussex was not one of the c@sino counties. After all, they thought of it first with the Playboy club. Too bad they were already in bed with the mob causing a no-go.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rixHSACe3CU

  10. grim says:

    Legends? They have crack dens and murders already, so it sounds extremely compatible with NJ’s current gaming strategy.

  11. HouseWhineWine says:

    Can anyone offer insight as to how the 55+ communities in northern and central N.J. are doing? Any personal experience with living in one or buying/selling tips for such communities? Much appreciated.

  12. [10] Exactly. They have prospective c@sino clients (and vendors) living on the premises right now!

  13. grim says:

    Maybe we can convince Pennsylvania and our other neighbors to ship their homeless and mentally ill to Sussex instead of AC. It shouldn’t be too much effort, after all, the Grayhound fare is lower. Perhaps AC will stand a chance then? Sounds like a win-win.

  14. D-FENS says:

    There’s an article on NJ.com about Ocean county wanting one now too. Tried posting the list but instantly goes to blacklist….

  15. 1987 Condo says:

    #11…check with Condo or HOA boards regarding issues, lawsuits, finances, assesments, etc. The KHov in Cedar Grove has many Building issues causing stress among owners, I hear similar of the Clifton development as well. My motto, “rent, do not buy, condos/townhomes”

  16. D-FENS says:

    Bergen County is already bleeding wealth. They don’t need one.

  17. grim says:

    Given that Monmouth Racetrack looks exactly like it did in 1952, I’m pretty sure that a casino wouldn’t be viable.

  18. grim says:

    Although Monmouth Park is the only venue that’s on a mass transit line (perhaps JC will be accessible as well, but I haven’t heard what location they are proposing).

  19. D-FENS says:

    WSJ has pictures of a proposed C@sino on the JC waterfront…

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume, putting on the Cone of Silence says:

    Comrade Di Blasio was on CNBC (?) arguing for a new New Deal: “If you take from 1945 through the 1970s, I don’t hear a lot of people saying that that wasn’t a great time for growth in this country, and growth that led far into the grass roots and animated our economy across the board . . . ”

    1945-1970. Yeah, our economy did well (if you ignore the 7 recessions in that period) but good luck getting those economic conditions back. Even liberal economists point out that it was an anomalous time in our history.

    And I don’t hear a lot of people who were alive and awake then who say the period from 1972-1983 was a good time for economic growth. My memory of it was that it was actually pretty poor, even though we weren’t in recession for most of it. So poor that Ford and Carter were run out after their first terms largely due to the economy.

  21. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Meaning, let’s say you have paid your mortgage over the years and have plenty of equity in your house. Even have plenty of savings. They your financial situation is put through an involutary stress event (lose a job, spouse gets sick,etc). You have the option of pulling equity out of your house to get you through a temporary situation. Granted its a stretch to compare to the bank bailout but no one could have accounted for the systemic market risk and domino effects of Bear and Lehman going down.

    [177] Joyce

    What do you mean?

    FKA 2010 Buyer says:
    June 2, 2015 at 6:10 pm
    How is the bailing out any different from pulling equity out of your house (or dipping into your savings) to get you through hard times?

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume, putting on the Cone of Silence says:

    [5] D-FENS

    UEZs? Other poverty zones? These are pretty commonplace and not limited to casin0s.

  23. Libturd in Union says:

    The 70s sucked if you were a kid. You didn’t get to participate in the sexual revolution, discos or coke parties. Sure, you got to rollerskate, and jello molds were all the rage. But your bike had a banana seat and being stuffed in the back of a station wagon was a daily occurrence. The economy blew too. A lot of inflation in the end and really high gas prices. This was also the time where if your car broke down on the highway in 4 of the 5 boroughs of NYC, it would be stripped the moment you left to get help. Your shirt collars were bigger than your hands and your pants would have looked better as a wallpaper pattern. The Iranian hostage situation and Carter’s failed attempts at rescuing them (which was pretty brave in retrospect) did not help his reelection bid. Thanks to Lake Placid, everything started looking up after that gold medal.

  24. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [24] lib

    “The 70s sucked if you were a kid. You didn’t get to participate in the sexual revolution, discos or coke parties.”

    Unless you were JJ.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    U.S. house prices accelerated further in April, as low inventories and growing sales push costs higher, a leading data provider said Tuesday.

    Why are there low inventories?

  26. Libturd in Union says:

    “but no one could have accounted for the systemic market risk and domino effects of Bear and Lehman going down.”

    They should have accounted for it, rather than bartering deals with the rating agencies to value their trash heaps (CDOs) as if they were gold. They knew exactly what they were doing. The only thing they didn’t plan for was that the house of cards would collapse so quickly that the feds would be too slow to help them out. Corzine dumped 180 million of NJ pension dollars into Lemon Brothers less than a month before the gig went belly up. He too expected the federal bailout as I’m sure BS did as well. No one is more to blame for the short raid on the highly leveraged IBs than the IBs themselves.

    I would have loved to see the collapse of all of the participating IBs. Smarter less greedy (less leveraged) IBs would have come up in their place. Instead, the lumps were taken by the middle class.

  27. 1987 condo says:

    #24… Yep pretty much how it was,.

  28. 1987 condo says:

    #21…1983/84 double dip recession

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gourd (173, yesterday);

    How can you read and post something like that on one minute, then still give serious consideration to the Daily Kos/HuffPost-esque crap that is your more usual fare?

  30. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Before my time but I recall seeing an article about who they considered to be the Greatest Republican of the 20th Century (Dwight Eisenhowser).

    Wealthiest Class taxed @ 91%
    Built Interstate Highway System
    Prosperity at all time high
    US was the greatest nation on Earth (still is btw)
    Played 800 rounds of golf

    My comment… you could also get a decent paying job with only a HS education. I would guess that your only option was to put down 20% on a house. He77 you actually sat down and applied for a loan.

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    That house I went to look at last week appears to be in attorney review. It took a price drop and 6 months to do so. This is the one that I sort of liked but needed everything from top to bottom. We wanted the house, I wanted to make an offer. I was willing to find a contractor to do a roof, siding, one bath and the kitchenfor starters. What held me back? The taxes currently stand just shy of $15,000. This is not normal. I don’t care who you are or what kind of money you make; paying $1250 per month for a nothing house on a nothing property is not normal.

  32. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [27] Libturd

    Smarter less greedy (less leveraged) IBs would have come up in their place.

    I agree 100% that’s where we should be but ideally would have liked to get there without a free fall in the market.

    No way to account for it just like businesses had no concept of DR procedures before 9/11. Had to change after an event.

  33. Essex says:

    The new normal Eddie.

  34. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [32] Fast Eddie

    I don’t care who you are or what kind of money you make; paying $1250 per month for a nothing house on a nothing property is not normal.

    And try factoring in your retirement plans paying that on fixed income…

  35. grim says:

    How did we ever survive the 1970s, 3 kids in the way back of a Ford faux wood panel LTD station wagon, 3 in the back seat, 3 in the front seat. No belts in the rear, sure as shit no airbags. Stopping distance was probably 300 feet with that load.

    Yet most of us made it through alive.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Time after time, I crunch numbers and find myself drawing a scenario where I’m willing to put 30% or better on a house just to offest the property taxes. Then, I work the numbers again and it still, STILL puts me over the threshold of the financial burden I want to endure. And it’s not just the “wannabee” towns, it’s everywhere.

    You can’t make the argument work in your favor when salaries are the same now as they were pre-bubble madness. It’s not normal and the FED, as hard as they try, cannot keep rates at zero forever. Once they rise, a new wave of muppets are going to get crushed again. But it’s the unabated property taxes that are constantly holding me back. I hate the f.ucking waste in the public sector and the majority of these public sector workers who defend their do-nothing jobs.

  37. grim says:

    37 – Meanwhile the rest of the main relo areas outside of NJ continue to skyrocket in cost of living, home prices, and taxes, while NJ stagnates. The door for cashing out is nearly closed. Another 1-2 years on a similar path, the relo arbitrage game is completely over.

    It is already over in a number of areas.

    What happens to NJ inventory in that situation? It sure as hell doesn’t increase. In fact, like we said years ago, it’s going to take another bubble for inventory to jump again. Even then, if the arb game is up, where are people going to go?

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    I would be drawing up paper work today if it wasn’t for the c.ocksucking ridiculous property taxes. $15,000 in taxes for a piece of shit that was never done and never expanded.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    …it’s going to take another bubble for inventory to jump again.

    I’m sure the unqualified sellers are praying for one.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    …while NJ stagnates

    Really?

    Really?

  41. Juice Box says:

    NYC should take a page from Montreal’s book and put a C*asino and an Amusement Park on Governors Island, it’s 172 acres and all it needs is a subway stop.

  42. clotluva says:

    38

    Bankruptcy court?

    Even then, if the arb game is up, where are people going to go?

  43. Juice Box says:

    re # 36 – How did we ever survive the 1970s.

    Simple we have ground breaking TV shows.

    Good Times was on from 74-79

    All in the Family was on from 71-79

  44. grim says:

    Plenty of areas in Texas already 10-20% above bubble prices, in the hot areas I am hearing 30% above. Selling your NJ home at 20% below peak, and buying a Texas home at 20% above peak? Property taxes aren’t that substantially different.

    Plenty of places in the US are seeing the magic $10k property tax bill these days.

  45. grim says:

    I’d like to see a state income tax ranking based on income quartiles – specifically top 20%. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see the gap between states drop significantly.

  46. homeboken says:

    38/41 – I side with Eddie here – I have reviewed the historic property tax bills on no less than 20 homes that are in my range. On every single one I have seen an annual tax increase of 3% or more, every year, since 2009, (excluding a home that has grieved).

    The rate of change is not increasing so perhaps that is what Grim mean’s by stagnating. But that property tax bill goes in 1 direction – and that delta currently outpaces private sector wage growth. So to summarize Eddie – The math simply does not compute.

    Now – I stand is a different spot with respect to Eddie regarding acceptance of “the new normal” I do not expect the property tax situation to change prior to my next home purchase, so I must adjust accordingly. Account for it in the purchase price, or take my glove and go play somewhere else. Those are my only options.

  47. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [38] Grim

    If there were a bubble today and inventory went up…besides the Fast Eddie types (keyword: saved for a dp), who is going to buy? There is probably a a whole line of buyers that were counting on 5% down mortgages being there when its time to buy.

  48. Ragnar says:

    Around 1980s cars were also the worst. Carter and the EPA had forced emergency efficiency mandates on the carmakers, so the automakers rushed to build cars that met the rules, yet people could afford. Zero to 60 probably averaged 12-15 seconds. Even V8 Camaros struggled to get to 60 in less than 10 seconds. And these rushed engines were falling apart as well. Bad performance and unreliable. Even the DeLorean, (1981) which looked like a supercar, had a crap v6 making 130 measly hp, less than a Toyota Corolla today, and took 10 seconds to reach 60mph.

  49. Fast Eddie says:

    But that property tax bill goes in 1 direction – and that delta currently outpaces private sector wage growth. So to summarize Eddie – The math simply does not compute.

    It defies the very laws of physics. I’m astounded.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    21, 24- So it’s a good thing I was born in 1980? lol

  51. JJ says:

    My favorite part of the 1970s was the drinking age was 18 and local dive bars were cool with 15-16 year olds drinking.

    I recall after 11th grade math regents we hit a bar in Mineola, Long Island across from the HS where kids used to go drinking after a big test. So I hear a few girls talking about the math regents, and I move in with pitcher in hand and start rapping, turns out girls were talking about ninth grade regents and gave me the look of a dirty old man. Damm.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:
    June 3, 2015 at 9:31 am
    [24] lib

    “The 70s sucked if you were a kid. You didn’t get to participate in the sexual revolution, discos or coke parties.”

    Unless you were JJ.

  52. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [29] condo,

    “#21…1983/84 double dip recession”

    I remember it well.

    Di Blasio wasn’t talking about the 80’s. So neither was I.

  53. grim says:

    But that property tax bill goes in 1 direction – and that delta currently outpaces private sector wage growth. So to summarize Eddie – The math simply does not compute.

    It absolutely computes, you are just forgetting to include the factor F-sub-U in your formula. It’s the factor that says American standard of living declines now. Which means taxes are higher, home prices are higher, food is higher, actually everything *BUT* incomes is higher.

    Until we determine that we are willing to live with a lower standard of living, standard of services, home prices, etc – there will be gnashing of teeth.

  54. grim says:

    For example, Ridgewood residents fighting against high density housing, Wayne residents fighting against high density housing.

    This is a clear example of people unwilling to accept the new reality, and being unwilling to let go of the old reality.

    So instead of more people living on a smaller patch of land, and willing to live with fewer services, they revolt. Why is anyone surprised at the $15k tax bills?

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m trying to hear both sides of the story. A lot of bs on both sides. Had an enlightening moment yesterday thanks to lefty and lib. Don’t think I’m ever going back to that type of thinking again. I was clouding my head with false information. Not proud of it, but it happens.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    June 3, 2015 at 9:38 am
    Gourd (173, yesterday);

    How can you read and post something like that on one minute, then still give serious consideration to the Daily Kos/HuffPost-esque crap that is your more usual fare?

  56. clotluva says:

    45 Agree that the opportunity for housing/income arbitrage by leaving the northeast for other economic hubs (e.g. NYC –> Houston) is diminishing – however, the opportunity for arbitrage by forsaking a physical presence in an economic hub and moving to a low cost outpost is increasing (i.e. enabled by more and more teleworking flexibility).

  57. JJ says:

    Property Taxes are also not equally distributed. Folks with connections to assessor office, folks with town connections, folks who greive regularly, folks who know how to play the system have assessed value lowered then town adjusts tax rates to offset and rest pay more taxes.

  58. Juice Box says:

    re: NYC –> Houston

    isn’t the oil boom over?

  59. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    As I look out my window and see the beautiful Hudson River…maybe we have it wrong and should buy a yacht and stay there. Then I look at the prices of a 100 footer and that dream dies a quick horrible death.

    Guess I’m staying put.

  60. homeboken says:

    55 Grim – I get it, all I have to do is reconcile that I now (and forevermore) will pay greater prices for goods and services that will continue to erode in quality and quantity. $15 for a 6-inch processed “meat” sandwich from a chain-deli! Delicious.

    Can someone please pass the lithium?

  61. grim says:

    however, the opportunity for arbitrage by forsaking a physical presence in an economic hub and moving to a low cost outpost is increasing (i.e. enabled by more and more teleworking flexibility).

    As competition for those same jobs increases, and folks are willing to forego income as cost of living decreases, you’ll see that this ultimately results in a lower standard of living once it becomes commonplace.

  62. Bystander says:

    Eddie,

    Did not see this posted but at least one housing “expert” agrees with you.

    House prices to decline starting in 2017 according to BoA.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-01/u-s-home-prices-set-for-a-fall-beginning-in-2017-bofa-says

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think you are dead on.

    grim says:
    June 3, 2015 at 10:35 am
    But that property tax bill goes in 1 direction – and that delta currently outpaces private sector wage growth. So to summarize Eddie – The math simply does not compute.

    It absolutely computes, you are just forgetting to include the factor F-sub-U in your formula. It’s the factor that says American standard of living declines now. Which means taxes are higher, home prices are higher, food is higher, actually everything *BUT* incomes is higher.

    Until we determine that we are willing to live with a lower standard of living, standard of services, home prices, etc – there will be gnashing of teeth.

  64. D-FENS says:

    Some part of me wonders if the c@sino talk is bullsh1t…and it’s part of a Xanadu pump and dump. The current owner could potentially sell the hype that a potential buyer could build a c@sino…then by the time the sucker buyer figures out it’s a false hope…too late.

  65. joyce says:

    The witnesses who saw a Broward County deputy sheriff kill a man who had strolled through his apartment complex with an unloaded air rifle propped on his shoulders agreed: Just before he was gunned down, Jermaine McBean had ignored the officers who stood behind him shouting for him to drop his weapon.

    Nothing, the officer swore under oath, prevented Mr. McBean from hearing the screaming officers.

    Newly obtained photographic evidence in the July 2013 shooting of Mr. McBean, a 33-year-old computer-networking engineer, shows that contrary to repeated assertions by the Broward Sheriff’s Office, he was wearing earbuds when he was shot, suggesting that he was listening to music and did not hear the officers. The earphones somehow wound up in the dead man’s pocket, records show.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/31/us/a-florida-police-killing-like-many-disputed-and-little-noticed.html?_r=0

  66. clotluva says:

    60 Juicebox

    I was referencing Grim’s post in 45, where he stated that plenty of places in TX had bubble prices and rising taxes.

    Like real estate, energy booms never end, apparently…they just go on hiatus.

    isn’t the oil boom over?

  67. joyce says:

    Well, considering the FED and the taxpayers are Wall Street’s b!tch… your analogy is apt.

    FKA 2010 Buyer says:
    June 3, 2015 at 9:12 am
    Meaning, let’s say you have paid your mortgage over the years and have plenty of equity in your house. Even have plenty of savings. They your financial situation is put through an involutary stress event (lose a job, spouse gets sick,etc). You have the option of pulling equity out of your house to get you through a temporary situation. Granted its a stretch to compare to the bank bailout but no one could have accounted for the systemic market risk and domino effects of Bear and Lehman going down.

  68. joyce says:

    Now to nitpick:

    “Meaning, let’s say you have paid your mortgage over the years and have plenty of equity in your house. Even have plenty of savings.”

    the exact opposite of what wall street did in the run up

    “The[n] your financial situation is put through an involutary stress event”

    I would argue the people best aware of the impending events were the ones directly involved in it.

    “but no one could have accounted for the systemic market risk and domino effects of Bear and Lehman going down.”

    ditto

  69. joyce says:

    Would a slow continual slide be better/acceptable? There’s no way to prop up the values at the time based on fraud… except for more fraud.

    FKA 2010 Buyer says:
    June 3, 2015 at 9:44 am

    “I agree 100% that’s where we should be but ideally would have liked to get there without a free fall in the market.”

  70. Libturd in Union says:

    Pump…the key is that it’s OK to read HufPo just as it’s OK to read Mein Kampf. Just know that both authors are going to try to write in such a way that it pleases the reader predisposed to that viewpoint. There really is no such thing as an unbiased report. I see Anon and Otto’s left wing drivel the same way I see Nom and Eddie’s right wing drivel. I try to separate the wheat from the chaff in each of them. The problem you struggle with is not being able to separate the authors’ influence (usually hand-picked facts/stats to support their premise) from the items intentionally left out (which would disprove the theory). Before you read or view any piece of information, factor in the source and the intent. Does the website need to generate more ad clicks? You don’t get ad clicks telling sheeple what they don’t want to hear. Would the New York Times sell more newspapers if it debunked the myth that locally sourced honey can help those with seasonal allergies? Of course not. So they won’t. It doesn’t fit the crunchy narrative. It’s extremely important to understand this. Sure, there are some outliers, but for the most part, people only want to see what they want to see.

  71. Bystander says:

    Joyce,

    Eternal words. Sums up the whole fiasco. One of my favorites.

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” – Upton Sinclair

  72. grim says:

    66 – Doesn’t every major global mall player already have a large presence in this market?

    Westfield – GSP
    GGP – Bridgewater, Paramus Park, Willowbrook, Woodbridge
    Simon – Newport, Livingston, Rockaway, Riverside, Newport, Jersey Gardens, Woodbury Outlets
    Taubman – Short Hills, Sayreville
    Macerich – Freehold, Deptford
    Glimcher – Rockaway Town, Brunswick

    Who is left of the big REITs? Rouse and CBL?

    Xanadu was originally pitched by Mills, who was subsequently purchased by Simon.

  73. Libturd in Union says:

    I’m still not seeing how propping up the stock market helps anyone? A new bond market would have arisen from the ashes. Likewise, stocks would eventually regain their true value. Maybe even some Wall Street transparency would have come from it. All more the reason to keep things the way they are I suppose.

  74. grim says:

    You could argue that Triple 5’s portfolio consists of nothing but outdated Albatross.

  75. I caught the tail-end, I was a 17 year old Freshman at Rutgers in ’77. Pre-Aids, mid-coke, 18 year old drinking age, and co-ed alternate room dorms. There was no such thing as a drug and alcohol policy at Rutgers either. Drag a keg into your dorm lounge any time you wanted to start a party. By 1980 the college pubs even had to change “Happy Hour” to “Attitude Adjustment Hour” and they were starting to raise the drinking age too.

    The 70s sucked if you were a kid. You didn’t get to participate in the sexual revolution, discos or coke parties.

  76. Juice Box says:

    What about the new Millennial marketplace mall going up in Sayreville?

    https://www.facebook.com/luxuryptsayreville

  77. [77] It was a bad time for fraternities recruiting new members in the late 70’s. They couldn’t offer up any fun you couldn’t have at the pub or in your dorm. Lambda Chi Alpha had the unofficial motto, “Always on Tap”, so that was our after-hours club after the bars and pub closed.

  78. Libturd in Union says:

    I am not in support of a casin0 in Xanadon’t, but if one was opened there, it would be insanely profitable to the operator and the state. I doubt many of you know this, but the casin0 at Aquaduct is the most profitable slot casin0 in the world. They have already generated 1.5 billion in state revenue. And it’s not even a random deal casin0. It’s actually, 5,000 video lottery terminals with a set return of 94%. The fake tables might be 97% and the slots 92% if I am not mistaken. But putting any casin0 in the middle of the most densely populated area of the most densely populated state is a guarantee of massive revenue.

  79. Libturd in Union says:

    I wonder if that megachurch will ever sell out to the developers when they want more space?

  80. It helps me. In my 401(K), where I have the least control, I use every big down day as buying opportunity for stock funds and then go back to cash when I have a significant gain. Since almost all of the stock funds in our plan follow SPY pretty well, I just use one fund at a time because I’ll be locked out that fund for 30 days when I sell. I’ll be going back to cash today, btw.

    I’m still not seeing how propping up the stock market helps anyone? A new bond market would have arisen from the ashes. Likewise, stocks would eventually regain their true value. Maybe even some Wall Street transparency would have come from it. All more the reason to keep things the way they are I suppose.

  81. JJ says:

    it is school taxes that are real killer in NY area. Jericho, Long Island which has one of the best school districts in Country pays 32K a year for each public school student. A family with three kids would be using 100K in school services alone. So property taxes are sky high. Someone paying 30K a year getting 100K worth of school services not so bad. A childless couple, ouch bend over

  82. homeboken says:

    “Country pays 32K a year for each public school student. A family with three kids would be using 100K in school services alone.” JJ

    Cost does not equate to worth. In my local – Hoboken NJ – we spend in excess of $27,000 per student per year for one of the worst education’s on offer in the state. Might as well go all out and spend $40k per student then you can claim – Look at the deal you are getting parent’s – You have 3 kids in the system and you are getting $120,000 worth of free education!

    Nevermind that the school district lags behind peer schools in every single measurable category, except spending.

  83. anon (the good one) says:

    this makes zero sense

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 3, 2015 at 12:13 pm
    It helps me. In my 401(K), where I have the least control, I use every big down day as buying opportunity for stock funds and then go back to cash when I have a significant gain. Since almost all of the stock funds in our plan follow SPY pretty well, I just use one fund at a time because I’ll be locked out that fund for 30 days when I sell. I’ll be going back to cash today, btw.

  84. anon (the good one) says:

    “By Orin Kerr May 29

    If I understand the history correctly, in the late 1990s, the President was impeached for lying about a sexual affair by a House of Representatives led by a man who was also then hiding a sexual affair,
    who was supposed to be replaced by another Congressman who stepped down when forced to reveal that he too was having a sexual affair,
    which led to the election of a new Speaker of the House who now has been indicted for lying about payments covering up his sexual contact with a boy.

    Yikes.”

  85. Wily Millenial says:

    > As competition for those same jobs increases, and folks are willing to forego income as cost of living decreases, you’ll see that this ultimately results in a lower standard of living once it becomes commonplace.

    That’s an interesting (/horrifying) forecast. That said, I’m near the point of considering a 50% paycut if it gets me somewhere with a higher QoL. And if there’s enough equity in my home to make it an attractive move. I still see some cheap areas I’d like to live (not NC).

  86. grim says:

    80 – Interesting

    http://articles.philly.com/2013-07-22/business/40710011_1_aqueduct-casino-aqueduct-racetrack-casino-revenue

    So a Meadowlands casino, with a full suite of table games – would put most of AC out of business. It would easily cut revenues by 50%. You’d need to have 2-3 casinos shut down to keep the others afloat.

  87. Marilyn says:

    87 What areas?

  88. grim says:

    In 2013 – Single aquaduct casino was pulling in 25% the total revenue of all of AC, and it’s in Queens.

    Located in Meadowlands? I think 50% might be pessimistic. If the right kind of casino was built, you better have an exit plan for AC.

  89. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” – Upton Sinclair

    When I first starting working in the residential mortgage space in late 2004, the first headscratcher was trying to figure out San Diego (spanish for whale’s vag) housing market. The average household income was $65k and the avg home price was $600k+.

    The whole [home buyer > loan officer > mortgage bank > pool securitization > investor] gravy train had built up steam and showed no slowing down. With rising home prices, all of the clowns that should NOT have purchased a home were getting bailed out by either the bank (via refinancing) or by selling to the next bag holder. Either option kept the train going. He77, I knew people on the street who were considering getting Interest Only loans and paying down the principal with their yearly bonus.

    No one could figure out how this “exuberance” could continue… yet it did for 4 more years.

  90. leftwing says:

    Re: taxes and housing/income arbitrage

    Not sure we are at the point of most other cities catching up yet. Someone mentioned the magic $10k number for taxes. The real answer is depends what you are buying. An area I recently visited had a home at $15k taxes for $850k. Rate of 1.8%, comparable to my town here.

    Difference is in my town in NJ $850k gets you at best a 3BR on a main road near power lines on a quarter acre.

    This house was turn of century (prior century), 8BR, 4.5BA, renovated, and on 6 acres. Came with a detached all real stone 3 stall carriage house.

    Also, regarding that link into the lack of affordability and availability nationwide one couple profiled actually mentioned numbers, the Denver couple. The were outbid on each property by two dozen bidders and lamented that sellers “list houses at $270k but really want $380k”. While agreeing other cities are catching up, let’s be real here. Getting something in any major metropolitan downtown at that price, especially with an implied $1800 monthly nut, is not something to be crying about.

    I’m surprised any functioning large city has anything priced in that range, let alone Denver. $380k would be a down payment on something comparable here.

  91. Fast Eddie says:

    I tried to find a more general type suburban town to see if there was a difference than the over-hyped Bergen county towns. This is Verona. The very first house I clicked on: a $629,000 price tag and $18,645 in taxes. F.ucking ridiculous. You can hold your nose and pay close to asking but then 18.6K in taxes? F.uck me.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1521433&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  92. Libturd in Union says:

    “Located in Meadowlands? I think 50% might be pessimistic. If the right kind of casin0 was built, you better have an exit plan for AC.”

    Which is why I doubt they do it. But it’s possible. I would lament the loss of AC greatly. It’s been extremely profitable for me over the last 3 years. I’m up well over 50K this year already. It helps that I’ve managed to nail two 20K royals in the time it should have taken me to get maybe a third of one. We are in the process of getting estimates to build a master bedroom on our third floor as well as another full bath. I doubt such lucrative and exploitable opportunities would exist in a new casin0 in the Meadowlands. I’m heading down to AC after work tomorrow. I have a mystery point multiplier. If I get more than 10X (once I got 50X), I’ll mortgage the house to take advantage. I had nearly a 10% advantage on the house with that one.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, thank you for trying to help me out. Bias is everything and I have to realize it. I learned all about it in college/hs, but for some reason, it has all gone out the door. The source and author should always be researched prior to reading it, if you are going to take anything from that reading seriously.

    I’m going to try and learn as much as I can from you. You really are the man!! You are one of the most intelligent people I know. You have such a deep understanding of multiple subjects that few other individuals in this world can lay claim to.

    Libturd in Union says:
    June 3, 2015 at 11:44 am
    Pump…the key is that it’s OK to read HufPo just as it’s OK to read Mein Kampf. Just know that both authors are going to try to write in such a way that it pleases the reader predisposed to that viewpoint. There really is no such thing as an unbiased report. I see Anon and Otto’s left wing drivel the same way I see Nom and Eddie’s right wing drivel. I try to separate the wheat from the chaff in each of them. The problem you struggle with is not being able to separate the authors’ influence (usually hand-picked facts/stats to support their premise) from the items intentionally left out (which would disprove the theory). Before you read or view any piece of information, factor in the source and the intent. Does the website need to generate more ad clicks? You don’t get ad clicks telling sheeple what they don’t want to hear. Would the New York Times sell more newspapers if it debunked the myth that locally sourced honey can help those with seasonal allergies? Of course not. So they won’t. It doesn’t fit the crunchy narrative. It’s extremely important to understand this. Sure, there are some outliers, but for the most part, people only want to see what they want to see.

  94. grim says:

    92 – The arb game is largely numerical gymnastics, as movers are willing to accept significantly lower tier towns on the move than they are willing to accept if they stay.

    Someone looking in Ridgewood, and scoffing at the idea of buying in Oakland, but moving away and buying in the equivalent of Elmwood Park and then raving about their 4000 square foot mansion.

    (These folks largely make up the Poconos relo camp).

  95. [85] anon – this makes zero sense

    I didn’t give you all the details.

    1. We don’t have a real “cash” or money market option, we have the TRP “Stable Value Fund” as our only “cash-like” option. It’s a real pile of sh1t because it’s not truly safe (stuffed with derivatives), but it returns about 2.5% annual.

    2. I don’t go “all in” at once, I use price patterns.

    3. Right now my fund-du-jour is VINIX. I went 50% in on 5/26 at 192.73, I went 25% more on 5/29 at 193.09. Tonight I’ll beout at around 193.75. I could probably scale in the last 25% like I sometimes do, but we’re getting close to resistance and trading above the 30 day MA for about as long as it goes.

    4. This isn’t even a large portion of my retirement funds, in the past I’ve treated as the cash component, but since the closest thing to cash isn’t really safe in our plan, why not take advantage of the manipulate market?

    No commissions, no spread. I make 0.5-1.5% every time I do this, thanks to the new Invisible Hand 2.0

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Know a few who have fell victim to this.

    grim says:
    June 3, 2015 at 1:44 pm
    92 – The arb game is largely numerical gymnastics, as movers are willing to accept significantly lower tier towns on the move than they are willing to accept if they stay.

    Someone looking in Ridgewood, and scoffing at the idea of buying in Oakland, but moving away and buying in the equivalent of Elmwood Park and then raving about their 4000 square foot mansion.

    (These folks largely make up the Poconos relo camp).

  97. Libturd in Union says:

    Expat,

    Timing the market is a tough game. Trust me. In my lifetime of investing in equities, (1987-present), I’ve timed the market three times. Playing the small bumps is a fools game. IMO, only huge macro-economic events are worthy of investment. The day-to-day stuff is nearly impossible to profit off of. And keep in mind, picking the bottom, is more important than picking the top. On the tech bubble, I nailed the top, but missed the bottom by a bit. But made enough to pay for half of the downpayment on the multi. Chipotle Mexican Grill helped a lot. I missed the top on the financial crisis, but I did nail the bottom almost perfectly. My other timing failed miserably, but I don’t even remember the event. Maybe 911. Fortunately, the gains during the time I was out were quite small so I didn’t miss out on much. All in all, I saved and made a bunch through it. Day trading, on the other hand, never worked for me. Everyone made a ton in the late 90s doing it, but I doubt many compared their results to benchmarks to see if they would have been better off in an index fund. I did and realized that I wasn’t gaining anything from day trading but, losing a lot of valuable time that I could have spent doing something else. Taxes took me forever to do too.

    I have just started preparing for my fourth market timing. When the DJIA hit 18,300 a few weeks ago, I moved 15% of my 401K into MMFs. My IRAs are still fully vested. For every 600 move in the DJIA, I will either remove another 15% if it goes up, or add that 15% back in if it goes down. Except during the tech bubble pop, I have never gone more than 50% MMF/stable. Those days near the top or bottom should not be missed. Timing takes great discipline, and that I do have. Unfortunately, only about one in about one hundred do. Good luck with your strategy. Just make sure you track your record versus benchmark.

  98. Wily Millenial says:

    89 –
    rural New England is still very affordable and I like it there. Hampshire Co MA, northeast MA, most of NH or VT… I had a relative selling a beautiful, dirt cheap property in VT that still sat on the market for over a year.

    or maybe: Del shore; somewhere in western MD or WV where there’s MARC trains; Roanoke VA or a nice part of TN… Colorado… central Oregon…

    Warren County NJ if I came into a little extra money, maybe…

  99. Wily Millenial says:

    93 –

    Nice neighborhood on that Verona house. Decent size lot. I bet they get over $700…

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    Nice neighborhood on that Verona house. Decent size lot. I bet they get over $700…

    At close to $19,000 in taxes? Get bent.

  101. Marilyn says:

    Eddie I agree, insane. I guess you got to have a great job for all this life of luxury. Im too cheap to pay those kind of taxes with no kids. I would get sick to my stomach paying 18700 a year to a town. I tell you, Ed why don’t we open a donut shop and hide some doe. That’s the only way I can see upgrading. I need a scam. I have all my money on paper with no deductions or scam. Donuts now that’s a plan.

  102. Marilyn says:

    Wily, I lived in the Adirondacks for a year. Very rural, it takes a tough mind to live isolated and rural.

  103. leftwing says:

    93, Eddie. Ridiculous. Taxes at 3% of value. Your coming close to renting your house from the government, not purchasing it from the seller.

    96, grim. Depends what each person qualifies as a ‘lower tier town’. By definition, it is personal and individual.

    I’m far from living in the Poconos and don’t boost my self confidence by bragging about the size of my…house.

    What I have come to discover though is that every locale has its high end country club. Its ‘shore’. Its exclusive private school. Its blue ribbon public school district. Its zagat restaurants. Its high end hotel experience. Its headline/growth industry. Its social, charitable, religious, and business networks. Its own sports teams. Etc.

    As I look around many alternative locales I see more similarities rather than differences on the lifestyle elements above.

    Where I see differences – not in NJ’s favor – are on elements that do matter to me. The small lots here and lack of living space. Drives me nuts, I just don’t know how people live right on top of eachother. The insufferable traffic and lines for anything. And the house prices/taxes for the quality of the structure and size of the lot.

    In my qualifications, Ridgewood is in fact the ‘lower tier town’, not the other way around.

    I would be interested on hearing what in your personal preferences qualifies Ridgewood on the other side of the spectrum. There is no right or wrong answer, it is personal preference.

    As an aside CNBC has been profiling real estate nationwide. They did a piece a while back on some sticks city, in Wisconsin I believe. Part of the segment had the vacation opportunities. They went to the equivalent of their shore, a lake. Beautiful houses, could have been Lake George or Spring Lake. Same boats as on Barnegat Bay, same cars in the driveways. Same hamburgers and steaks. Beer was Leinenkugel and there were a few more pork sausages but other than that this ‘lower tier town’ looked like every high end vacation I’ve taken in NJ.

    BTW, the kids and adults they showed were having an absolute blast. I guess no one had yet informed them they live in a “lower tier town”.

  104. leftwing says:

    Marilyn, where in the ADKs? I know them like the back of my hand. Grew up a few miles outside of the blue line and spent my youth summers there.

  105. Fast Eddie says:

    Marilyn,

    I always enjoy reading your posts… even your forthcoming and heartfelt ones. :) The one that always makes me laugh is when you said, “Not my schmutzy” or some silmilar name. It was a year ago or more. I like donuts, let’s do it!

  106. clotluva says:

    The arb game is largely numerical gymnastics, as movers are willing to accept significantly lower tier towns on the move than they are willing to accept if they stay.

    Poconos? You need to expand your horizons. How would you rate towns like Saratoga Springs, NY or Burlington VT?

    Taxes on this house would be double (or more) in NJ.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/19-Bog-Meadow-Run_Saratoga-Springs_NY_12866_M36637-70427?row=4

  107. Ragnar says:

    leftwing,
    Yes. Location in NJ is mostly related to transport to work (frequently NYC), quality of schools, and status. Some people also care about downtowns/shopping/ bars/entertainment.
    For someone not particularly interested in those things, the price differences between NJ locations will seem excessive.

  108. Wily Millenial says:

    I’m not saying the price is rational, but come back and check with me after it sells. If I were looking I’d consider it, proximity to the county reservation is awesome.

    I wouldn’t be able to deal with the Adirondacks either. Bad enough visiting great grandparents up there. But Burlington is not that much more expensive and it’s plenty civilized.

  109. Fast Eddie says:

    You want to justify the prices by saying it’s warranted in town ABC as opposed to town DEF, then so be it. But don’t tell me it’s justified at tax figures that are simply f.ucking sublime. Sorry, try again. It’s not the house prices that priced me out, it’s the rip-off taxes.

  110. Wily Millenial says:

    105 –
    “Where I see differences – not in NJ’s favor – are on elements that do matter to me. The small lots here and lack of living space. Drives me nuts, I just don’t know how people live right on top of eachother. The insufferable traffic and lines for anything. And the house prices/taxes for the quality of the structure and size of the lot.”

    Love when I have to buy something from a chain store on a Saturday. May as well flush your whole weekend down the toilet.

  111. grim says:

    108 -$450k, $10k taxes … North of Albany. What am I missing here? That’s hardly a bargain, in fact I think that’s grossly overpriced. Not even considering the late 90s kitchen and baths. What’s the attraction?

  112. Walking Bye says:

    Marilyn -Spend numerous weeks in Raleigh last year. Fun place, nice people. I would recommend suburb of Cary aka (containment area for retired Yankees)

  113. grim says:

    Nice suburb around Cary, you are paying $750k for a house. I guess the $7k taxes are a bargain in comparison.

  114. Marilyn says:

    Ohh you want the ADK story. Ok I did manage to accomplish all the 40 hikes in the Catskills (yes I was a crack head who exercised). SO then I moved on to the Adirondacks. Well the drive up got too be too much so I bought a log cabin in a town called Schuyler Falls. The address was 191 Norrisville Road, Schuyler Falls, you can get a picture of it. I was on the Salmon RIver. Well the place was great for vacation, then I got this insane idea to move up there full time. I sold my house in Hillsdale which was an OLD WRECK at the height of the market and made a killing. So I moved up there. Now picture the movie Affliction if you ever saw it. The Adks were great in the Summer and when all the rich people were around. BUt then came the real deal. Poverty and alcoholism at its best. Then came December and I turned into the guy in the Shining. I had visions of hanging myself in the garage that I had built like a fool. The sound of the river was rushing for about 8 straight months and the noise thru me over the edge. I finally said that’s it, moved and rented the place to a SUNY student and got the hell out. I sold it finally. It was a hell of a learning experience. Its great for vacation but not to live full time. I do love Burlington and Stowe too but not full time living!

  115. grim says:

    Unless you want that spacious 40×100 lot in Cary.

  116. Marilyn says:

    Raleigh is for me!! I am deciding between Raleigh or Cary. Too be honest I think I like midtown Raleigh better. I have a place rented in 5 points a cute little house to give it a try for a week. Then when my house sells in NJ I plan on going into corporate temporary housing and finding the perfect place. Raleigh I can see myself in!! I just can see it! Its perfect for me. And look if it sucks at least I did not build a garage !

  117. grim says:

    I would live outside of Stowe.

  118. Fast Eddie says:

    $374,900, taxes are $2,900. Who the f.uck is bullsh1ting who? Please, spare me the sh1t saying that the rest of the country is catching up to the ridiculous cost of living here. We’ll all be dead before that argument has merit.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/213-Townsend-Ct_Cary_NC_27518_M56045-55150?row=7

  119. Fast Eddie says:

    $389,000, taxes are just under $3,400.

    I know, the taxes are warranted here. LOL!!

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/110-Hickorywood-Blvd_Cary_NC_27519_M68751-48312?row=9

  120. Marilyn says:

    I am going to spend about 450 K for a house and you can get a nice house in midtown Raleigh or Cary. I wont spend 750K. Prices are not that insane there yet.

  121. Marilyn says:

    Here is the funny thing about Raleigh and Cary. Houses look great on the outside and the yards on some are great. But the kitchens are all cheesy a bit. Its like they don’t have the fancy upgrades like NJ/Bergen. They live with a modest kitchen and its a little junked down. But I can live with that. I live with hillbillys now in NW NJ. Anything is an upgrade!! Even the eastside of Paterson is an upgrade from NW NJ hillbillies.

  122. JJ says:

    In Southampton folks who say they are buying a vacation house in the Poconos or Catskills instead of hamptons as it costs almost nothing and is nice and peacefull the answer is always “See you in two years” the beauty turns into painful isolation and boringness rather quick.

    Marilyn says:
    June 3, 2015 at 3:11 pm
    Ohh you want the ADK story. Ok I did manage to accomplish all the 40 hikes in the Catskills (yes I was a crack head who exercised). SO then I moved on to the Adirondacks. Well the drive up got too be too much so I bought a log cabin in a town called Schuyler Falls. The address was 191 Norrisville Road, Schuyler Falls, you can get a picture of it. I was on the Salmon RIver. Well the place was great for vacation, then I got this insane idea to move up there full time. I sold my house in Hillsdale which was an OLD WRECK at the height of the market and made a killing. So I moved up there. Now picture the movie Affliction if you ever saw it. The Adks were great in the Summer and when all the rich people were around. BUt then came the real deal. Poverty and alcoholism at its best. Then came December and I turned into the guy in the Shining. I had visions of hanging myself in the garage that I had built like a fool. The sound of the river was rushing for about 8 straight months and the noise thru me over the edge. I finally said that’s it, moved and rented the place to a SUNY student and got the hell out. I sold it finally. It was a hell of a learning experience. Its great for vacation but not to live full time. I do love Burlington and Stowe too but not full time living!

  123. Marilyn says:

    I have seen some really nice houses with taxes about 3500. Go to Lochmere in Cary real estate and the houses are pretty darn nice. However now take Chapel Hill and Carborro the other part of the Triangle and taxes are just about as bad as NJ.

  124. Fast Eddie says:

    Another one at 419K and $3,472 in taxes. Can you imagine? And then I look at dogsh1t with 15K in taxes. Unreal.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/110-Grey-Horse-Dr_Cary_NC_27513_M66242-85879?row=23

  125. JJ says:

    Most of those houses have HOA fees that are not listed

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 3, 2015 at 3:27 pm
    Another one at 419K and $3,472 in taxes. Can you imagine? And then I look at dogsh1t with 15K in taxes. Unreal.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/110-Grey-Horse-Dr_Cary_NC_27513_M66242-85879?row=23

  126. clotluva says:

    108 -$450k, $10k taxes … North of Albany. What am I missing here? That’s hardly a bargain, in fact I think that’s grossly overpriced. Not even considering the late 90s kitchen and baths. What’s the attraction?

    You were saying that arb doesn’t work. You claimed people traded “good towns” for “bad towns” on an arb. I provided an example of a decent house, in a good town, where relocation arbitrage (factoring in schools, cost, taxes, and quality of life) would work.

    Kind of odd that you are bashing a $450K house for having a late 90’s kitchen & baths. Fast Eddie has shown many, many much more egregious examples in NE NJ. But feel free to post a comparable offering within a 30 minute commute to NYC.

  127. Marilyn says:

    Hoa’s are not that bad, about 500 a year. However here is were they get you. You got to pay taxes on your cars. So if you have expensive cars its about 1000 dollars you got to add. Listen this is not a cheap quiet little area. Its booming. There is so much going on in growth I was shocked. It reminded me of Bergen County 30 years ago. The job market is good due to RTP. However the cost of living is a bit cheaper and I have seen police officers actually changing people tires on the side of the road!! HAHA ! You don’t see that anymore in NJ.

  128. joyce says:

    $370, annually… ouch

    http://www.movoto.com/cary-nc/110-grey-horse-dr-cary-nc-27513-413_2010528/

    JJ says:
    June 3, 2015 at 3:34 pm
    Most of those houses have HOA fees that are not listed

  129. grim says:

    The average nj geo arb is selling their $450k house in NJ to buy a $250k house elsewhere, paying off the mortgage balance, and pocketing some cash. The arb doesn’t work if you sell your $450k house here to buy a $450k house somewhere else. In that case, you are just moving.

  130. Marilyn says:

    Look Im giving it a trail run. Its a lot like NJ , I really liked it . However I am renting first before buying. I keep going back and looking for the cons and honestly I cant find them. Now its not for everyone but I think I could really make a life there and fall into life pretty easily. I will let you know how it goes. I feel for me if I don’t make a change soon, I never will and I will be trapped in NJ till death. My father is too old to go, and I see so many people who wish they did make the move but were scared. Im scared. I am giving up everything I know to start over. But I just don’t want to stay in NJ. Im disillusioned here and feel at times its soulless. Maybe if I had a ton of friends , kids or some big high power job I would love it. But im just a nothing, so I want to live with more of the middle class. I find there is a middle class there and people are happier. Labor is cheaper too because of no unions so people can fix things up. A lot of the houses were older than they appear because people have more money to spend on fixing up there house. I like it. Raleigh here I come! Let me just sell my house here !!

  131. Marilyn says:

    Correct Grim. I lived like a poor loser so now im upgrading later in life. If you saw where I lived in NJ you would laugh! Its an upgrade for me. But most are cashing in there house and living cheaper. Im backwards. Remember I was in the basement!!

  132. grim says:

    IMHO, the arb play is to trade the real estate run up in one place, and take those cap gains into another location where you can use them to offset your cost of living to the extent that any decrease in wages in the lower cost area isn’t going to result in a lower standard of living.

    I think played correctly, it means selling your house in NJ, buying an affordable house elsewhere, with cash, no mortgage. Sprinkles on top if you parlay that into an increased savings/investment cushion or a position that allows you to get into a 1 income household (it that is your thing).

    Selling a mortgaged $450k house in NJ, netting a few hundred k, and buying a very expensive property in a lower income area? That’s not arb, that’s crazy. I don’t care if you are trading places for a nicer house. To trade a higher cost of living for nicer cabinets and countertops? Seems easier to just buy the countertops.

  133. JJ says:

    But property tax and homeowners insurance could be a lot cheaper.

    grim says:
    June 3, 2015 at 3:48 pm
    The average nj geo arb is selling their $450k house in NJ to buy a $250k house elsewhere, paying off the mortgage balance, and pocketing some cash. The arb doesn’t work if you sell your $450k house here to buy a $450k house somewhere else. In that case, you are just moving.

  134. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Guess what this house doesn’t have in common with the Bergen county homes? It’s not anywhere near nyc, but that doesn’t matter right? If this state is such a rip-off and North Carolina is such a bargain, why not move? I’m confused?

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 3, 2015 at 3:27 pm
    Another one at 419K and $3,472 in taxes. Can you imagine? And then I look at dogsh1t with 15K in taxes. Unreal.

    http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/110-Grey-Horse-Dr_Cary_NC_27513_M66242-85879?row=23

  135. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Real estate arb play….

    see the Manhattan to NJ move
    see the Brooklyn to NJ move

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:
  137. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are you being serious? Ridgewood, a lower tier town? Are you smoking crack now?

    “In my qualifications, Ridgewood is in fact the ‘lower tier town’, not the other way around.

    I would be interested on hearing what in your personal preferences qualifies Ridgewood on the other side of the spectrum. There is no right or wrong answer, it is personal preference.”

  138. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [72] lib:

    Drivel? I’m hurt, hurt, I tell you.

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    139- I have been living in northern nj for 35 years and have never ever heard someone refer to ridgewood as a lower tier town. Def a first for me. You do realize they have 600,000 cape cods in ridgewood, right? Are we talking about the same place? I wouldn’t qualify towns with a train station, top schools, and a beautiful downtown as lower tier.

  140. grim says:

    So Hard Rock really would cut AC revenues by 50%.

    $500m in annual tax revenue, proposed 50% tax level, $1b in annual revenue. AC took in $2.3 billion last year.

    Kaboom

  141. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [100] wily

    “Hampshire Co MA, northeast MA, most of NH . . .”

    If you go, try to say Gloucester or Worcester or Woburn as often as you can. That way, we can still pick you out. Or just keep the Jersey plates, that works too.

  142. Marilyn says:

    Grim I see what your saying but I am almost 50 years old. I have never taken from my portfolio, its grown and grown and grown. I have no kids, I have no debt. I have always lived below my means. Now my plan is to at least get a nicer house and die in it. Like I said there have never been any money taken and when my father passes there is the trust too that he has paid all the taxes on each year. Add to his life insurance of 1..25 million and what the hell am I going to do, just let it grow more and give it to the government? You see I don’t fit the average mold. I just let it grow for 30 plus years. My biggest problem is my cost basis. When I go to sell stuff off. So Im just living now for the first time off the dividends and cap gains. However my money market accounts has just grown and grown because I am a loser with no life and don’t do drugs anymore either so I really have nothing to spend it on.

  143. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How long before north jersey separates from the rest of the state? Take away ac and south jersey real estate will look cheap to even fast Eddie.

    grim says:
    June 3, 2015 at 4:17 pm
    So Hard Rock really would cut AC revenues by 50%.

    $500m in annual tax revenue, proposed 50% tax level, $1b in annual revenue. AC took in $2.3 billion last year.

    Kaboom

  144. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is what fast Eddie misses when he asks who is paying these ridiculous prices. People that were paying a lot more and are looking at jersey as a bargain.

    FKA 2010 Buyer says:
    June 3, 2015 at 4:10 pm
    Real estate arb play….

    see the Manhattan to NJ move
    see the Brooklyn to NJ move

  145. Ragnar says:

    Apparently, the closer to NYC, the more money “public servants” should be paid.
    If the cost of living in NJ is 40% higher than Cary, NC, why are property taxes 3x to 4x higher than comparable houses in NJ?

    I suspect it’s partly because of less generous welfare programs in NC.
    Partly because they don’t shower vast amount of money on the teachers and administrators supervising their failing school systems.
    Probably modestly fewer town services.
    Partly because of fewer government workers per capita, and lower paid government workers.
    Partly because NJ government officials have perfected the art of enriching themselves and their friends, in a way that might even make Boss Hogg blush.

  146. leftwing says:

    108, Eddie:
    “How would you rate towns like Saratoga Springs, NY or Burlington VT? Taxes on this house would be double (or more) in NJ.”

    Boom. In addition to the taxes it’s a decently constructed 4/2.5 in a good neighborhood close to amenities for $449k. On two acres.

    109, Rags:
    “Yes. Location in NJ is mostly related to transport to work (frequently NYC), quality of schools, and status. Some people also care about downtowns/shopping/ bars/entertainment.”

    I understand proximity to a job one won’t/can’t leave in NYC. You’re tethered here, by choice. Downtowns, etc can be just as vibrant if not moreso than in the typical bedroom community here.

    Schools. I have been challenging people to redefine what ‘good’ means as I become more informed about since I’m putting my two sons through starting in 2016. If it is quality of education in the absolute there are fine institutions everywhere we are discussing. If we are talking admittance to selective colleges, all other things being equal I can 100% guarantee a kid from Cary NC gets into MIT above our kids. Every time.

    Status, likewise, I am asking for definition. The characteristics of Ridgewood, Chatham, etc in NJ are not attractive to me for the reasons I previously stated – crowds, overpriced housing stock, small lots – so they don’t have ‘status’ for me. I believe when most people say ‘status’ they mean ‘expensive’. As I stated in my prior post I don’t define myself by my checkbook or others’ perceptions of my belongings so that definition of status has no meaning to me. Those towns, therefore, are irrelevant and without cache and premium.

  147. Marilyn says:

    Grim are you a financial planner?

  148. Marilyn says:

    147 you are correct they don’t hand out the welfare so fast. And you forgot the big U. UNIONS

  149. leftwing says:

    “108 -$450k, $10k taxes … North of Albany. What am I missing here? That’s hardly a bargain, in fact I think that’s grossly overpriced. Not even considering the late 90s kitchen and baths. What’s the attraction?”

    Seriously? I’m not at all implying that is at all nirvana – it’s not – but do I need to pull up the Chatham house someone posted a couple months back? $580k for a dilapidated 3BR on a main street that would be Section 8 anywhere, even in an old midwest industrial town? 1500 feet from the town waste treatment plant, less than that from Rte 24? On a 7000 sq ft lot, mostly paved for parking?

    No brainer for me. I’ll ‘step down’ to that Saratoga house in a nanosecond and let someone else take that Chatham ‘status’.

  150. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    I thought of posting some troll bait this morning about Paulson’s $400M gift to Harvard, but never got around to it.

    But the trolls were out anyway.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102730951

    BTW, if I were casting for the role of Otto, Malcolm Gladwell in this photo would be a shoo-in.

  151. Fast Eddie says:

    Guess what this house doesn’t have in common with the Bergen county homes? It’s not anywhere near nyc, but that doesn’t matter right?

    What page is that on in the house tour guide mantra booklet?

  152. Marilyn says:

    Pumpkin, funny you should say about schools. They call the Triangle the Cambridge of the South. Over 80,000 PHD. Duke, and UNC very good schools. Red Hat, Ibm, techs and engineers all over the place. Its not just retired old bags. Its an odd mix. I find the schools in Chapel Hill are very good and this NJ myth that schools are the best is maybe overrated. I don’t have kids so I don’t know but I think kids are getting a good education outside of NJ. Listen if you have a job in NJ and make a ton of money , NJ is the place to be. For me its a no brainer to get out. The ironic part is there are JOBS there in the Triangle. I see the South as the new North. Out in NW NJ its becoming a rust belt. For me I got to get out of here. I like the area because its got it all. Education, jobs, retires all kind of together. Its a very strange situation where you get a good educated population with a lower cost of living. I was once looking at Ashville and guess what , there was not enough to stimulate my brain.

  153. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ridgewood is not the flashy rich. They are the old money type that don’t show off what they have. Why do you think the houses aren’t anywhere near the size a mansion and a million dollars? Except for ridgewood ave and maple, there really isn’t much traffic. It’s also a community focused town which is why their schools are better than 99% of the country. Any school can teach you, but it’s your peers in the school that influence. Go to a poor school and you can still learn the subject material, but you will completely miss the social education that affluent students bring to the classroom. You will be competing with kids trying to get into the best schools in the world. Poor kids bring no competition, they are not thinking about going to a top college. So if you are learning with the poor kids, you better have the motivation to push yourself to go deep into learning on your own. You will always be ahead of the poor kids in your class. They will literally hold you back from your potential if you don’t have the motivation to do it on your own. Where you go to school matters, it matters a lot.

    “Status, likewise, I am asking for definition. The characteristics of Ridgewood, Chatham, etc in NJ are not attractive to me for the reasons I previously stated – crowds, overpriced housing stock, small lots – so they don’t have ‘status’ for me. I believe when most people say ‘status’ they mean ‘expensive’. As I stated in my prior post I don’t define myself by my checkbook or others’ perceptions of my belongings so that definition of status has no meaning to me. Those towns, therefore, are irrelevant and without cache and premium.”

  154. Marilyn says:

    Eddie I hate NY. I never go to NY. And its really not that diversified. NC only has 32,000 Jews. The tri state area has 1.2 or more Jews. So if you like NYC culture and are a very involved Jewish person you would hate NC. For me its ideal!

  155. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [151] leftwing,

    Can someone tell me why Chatham has status? Besides being on the direct, and being named for a prestigious town in Mass., why do people rave about it? I’ve been there often enough but the appeal is not apparent.

  156. Marilyn says:

    157 The Ward coffee shop. The Copenhagen coffee is great!!

  157. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [154] marilyn

    “they call the Triangle the Cambridge of the South.”

    Except for the bad roads, bizarre parking laws, dysfunctional local government and smelly hipsters everywhere.

  158. leftwing says:

    “I would live outside of Stowe.”
    There are some nice peninsulas that stick into Lake Champlain between Burlington and Middlebury. Good quality of life.

    Marilyn.
    Yeah, ADKs are tough off-season. That’s why there so many good hockey players, drunks, and teenage pregnancies. For those long dark days the three choices are skating, drinking, and scr3wing. Not necessarily in that order.

    Separately, I came within 3% of a signed contract to buy this place. Could have cleared the amount but with some needed improvements and a lifestyle I’ve since shed I had to walk. Sold pretty much sold spot on my offer.

    Which, for the record, was less than what I received late last year from the sale of my 4BR Chatham home.

    http://thewoodsinn.com/

  159. Marilyn says:

    159 Yes the hipster may be a problem for me. That’s a big one. One con!

  160. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the truth. I’m not selling anything. City prices are going for like 2000 a sq ft. Believe me, there is someone in North Carolina just like you. They are complaining about how expensive it has become and thinking of ways to avoid it. Guess what, there is no avoiding it. New America. Those millenials you call pussies, guess what, they are going through a tougher economy on young people than you ever saw in your life. You don’t think they want to buy a house? How about you move to a cheap retirement community and give them your job so that they can purchase your house?

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 3, 2015 at 4:40 pm
    Guess what this house doesn’t have in common with the Bergen county homes? It’s not anywhere near nyc, but that doesn’t matter right?

    What page is that on in the house tour guide mantra booklet?

  161. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [158] marilyn

    Good to know. Because Cafe Beethoven was meh.

  162. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [161] marilyn

    The hipsters are in Cambridge, not the Triangle (there may be some but not nearly as thick as in The “Squayah”)

  163. JJ says:

    Steinfeld style life seems pretty cushy to me.

    Marilyn says:
    June 3, 2015 at 4:43 pm
    Eddie I hate NY. I never go to NY. And its really not that diversified. NC only has 32,000 Jews. The tri state area has 1.2 or more Jews. So if you like NYC culture and are a very involved Jewish person you would hate NC. For me its ideal!

  164. Fast Eddie says:

    How about you move to a cheap retirement community and give them your job so that they can purchase your house?

    They can’t afford my house, I demand top dollar.

  165. Marilyn says:

    160, the place looks beautiful. You wanted to buy the whole place? So where did you wind up? Are you in NJ? I love Stowe, and Burligton. I love Healthy Living. I love the organic food because I lift weights and bodybuild. However I just cant live there year round. Its so great for vacation. But full time VT is tough.

  166. Marilyn says:

    164 HAHA HAHA you know what the hipster say NO WORRIES!!! GOOD!! No hipsters, no jews, no unions, no welfare. Perfect for me!!! I was always looking for that Archie Bunker type Utopia. ( IM sort of kidding people) don’t want to offend Essex. He already hates me.

  167. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    The Gentrification of the South: From Chatham to Chapel Hill

  168. Marilyn says:

    left wing, I remember reading an article in ADK life about that place. How long did the last owner own it. I think I read a story about a family restoring it. The place has a history.

  169. Statler Waldorf says:

    If $15,000 property taxes are an obstacle to buying in NJ, why even look at houses in NJ? That’s what it costs — minimum — in a decent area, and taxes aren’t going down any time soon.

    I don’t quite understand the self-flagellation of physically visiting houses and then not making an offer because the taxes are $15,000. That information is available online, and a given area will have similar taxes for all the houses there, making it easy to cross entire towns off the list in just a few minutes. House shopping in towns where taxes are $15,000 and up makes no sense, if one isn’t willing to pay such taxes.

  170. leftwing says:

    “Are you being serious? Ridgewood, a lower tier town? Are you smoking crack now?”

    Punkin, as I stated, ‘tiering’ towns is subjective. Unless you can point me to some absolute measure.

    The characteristics of towns like Ridgewood, Chatham, etc are simply not attractive to me. By many measures – traffic, lot size, housing stock for price – they are down right unattractive and therefore ‘lower tier’.

  171. leftwing says:

    BTW, I can’t tell you how many people make their first stop from NYC in Chatham, take a year or two, look around and go “WTF is the big deal”, and bolt. Usually to land, space, and size to Harding.

    Status, top tier, and luxury is openness and space. Especially in NJ. It’s not purchase price or patch.com opinion.

  172. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Okay, but understand no one else considers Ridgewood a lower tier town. I have never heard someone describe it in this way. They might not like it and think it’s overpriced, but they still think of ridgewood as an upper tier town.

    leftwing says:
    June 3, 2015 at 5:12 pm
    “Are you being serious? Ridgewood, a lower tier town? Are you smoking crack now?”

    Punkin, as I stated, ‘tiering’ towns is subjective. Unless you can point me to some absolute measure.

    The characteristics of towns like Ridgewood, Chatham, etc are simply not attractive to me. By many measures – traffic, lot size, housing stock for price – they are down right unattractive and therefore ‘lower tier’.

  173. Fast Eddie says:

    Statler,

    I’m on a train and can’t type on a cell. Read your whole second sentence again and tell me what is wrong with that statement.

  174. Fast Eddie says:

    Ridgewood is a house tour guide’s dream town.

  175. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ridgewood has beautiful tree lined streets, where every lawn is top notch, and the homes have a bunch of character with a lot of them taking on the craftsmanship that comes with English style Tudors(love me some slate roofs). It’s the charm of the area, the people that live there, the schools, downtown, and most importantly, the train station. The price doesn’t make it prestigious, it’s the community that does. I don’t know enough about Chatham to comment on it.

    leftwing says:
    June 3, 2015 at 5:17 pm
    BTW, I can’t tell you how many people make their first stop from NYC in Chatham, take a year or two, look around and go “WTF is the big deal”, and bolt. Usually to land, space, and size to Harding.

    Status, top tier, and luxury is openness and space. Especially in NJ. It’s not purchase price or patch.com opinion.

  176. The Great Pumpkin says:

    An area doesn’t become expensive due to some “heist” being performed. It becomes expensive due to willing buyers driving the price up. For me any price, which was a sell, was justified. You might not agree with the price, and the person might not ever get back what they paid for it, but the minute money transfers parties, it’s a real price. The market says so.

  177. leftwing says:

    “Can someone tell me why Chatham has status? Besides being on the direct, and being named for a prestigious town in Mass., why do people rave about it? I’ve been there often enough but the appeal is not apparent.”

    Got me. But it was a nice ride up.

  178. Marilyn says:

    177, your right the real wealth belt is the Bedminster, Peapack, and quieter more open areas of NJ. You would never even know the wealth of the people on the gravel roads in Bedminster because they live so understated.

  179. Marilyn says:

    BLairsden was on the market for some crazy low price of 2 million or 4 million a few years ago. It was a steal.

  180. grim says:

    Chatham?

    Upscale, high net worth, midtown direct trains, top 20 high school. Chatham HS was ranked #1 by NJ Monthly in 2014.

  181. grim says:

    That whole triangle made by Mendham, east to Millburn, southwest to Bridgewater, and back up to Mendham is largely driven by the same major factors.

    I suspect if that area was it’s own county, it would be the wealthiest in NJ by a long stretch, probably moreso than northern Bergen.

  182. grim says:

    Very easy to pick up a private jet from Morristown as well.

  183. 1987 Condo says:

    Please stop talking about Cary and raleigh, my son graduates from NC State this year and I will be doing an NC collee road trip there with my daughter in the summer and I really don’t need all you folks ruining it all.’

    Keep in mind that NYC property tax has been steadily rising each year and that city residents pay 3% on their income, so although my brother only has $4,500 property tax bill on his 40×100..he pays another $6,000 to NYC that essentially goes to manhattan for their purposes.

  184. 1987 Condo says:

    Above, “college” not collee.

  185. joyce says:

    How does it matter that a given town has a train station in it vs having to drive to one (like Mendham)?

  186. leftwing says:

    “left wing, I remember reading an article in ADK life about that place. How long did the last owner own it. I think I read a story about a family restoring it. The place has a history.”

    One family, Wood, owned it for quite a while after the original developer in the late 1800s. People mistake the name for the trees, rather than the surname. Under three (I believe) brothers’ stewardship the hotel struggled along with the rest of the area in the 60s and thereafter. I’m supposing once autos and then planes became widely used people looked further afield for vacations. One of the oldest family members died in the last year or two, others still live right across the road from the hotel. Can’t recall exactly when the hotel shut down but a couple from Pittsburgh purchased it probably 15 years ago. It was dilapidated, you could walk in the ground floor and see all the way up three floors and out the roof. They restored it to original standards, love the original tin ceiling in the dining room. They sold it last year to the present owners, a husband and wife team also.

    Here’s some history mentioning it. Gets abbreviated after the 1920s as the area declined before picking up again. My father recalls when he was younger you stayed out of Inlet, it was a serious biker town lol. Very cleaned up now.

    http://inletny.com/gov/?page_id=297

    Separately, doing the 40 peaks with my boys. Helps keep me in shape, but they crush me.

  187. leftwing says:

    Haha, writing about that area I just remembered.

    For the status seekers google Adirondack League Club.

    But eh, who cares, just a bunch of camps in the middle of unimpressive woods far from NYC.

  188. 1987 Condo says:

    I’ll do a Backstrom:

    Your living in SI or Queens, your paying $4k property tax, $6k NYC tax, and expect $8k a year for each of 2 kids in HS because you don’t trust NYC school. That is $26k

    You move to NJ and buy a better house for the same money and pay $15-18k property tax. You are “up” $8k-$10k..and:

    1. Better house
    2. Better land
    3. Garage
    4. Nicer neighbors
    5. No street parking issues in snow
    6. Better roads
    7. Easier commuter to NYC (YES!)
    8. Easier commute to shore
    9. Lower tolls
    10. Did I mention better schools (perception is reality)
    11. Did I mention saving $8k a year for kids in school…..

  189. 1987 Condo says:

    Continued:

    12. Cops show up in 3 minutes if called
    13. You can find Town hall’
    14. You may have a town pool
    15. You may even have a town parade or fireworks
    16. Playgrounds, ballfields a plenty! (I had to get a permit from the Feds when I was 12 so we could play pick up baseball at Miller field on SI!- but sponge ball on street was always available…car door jandles were 1b 1nd 3b and sewers were home and second!)

  190. 1987 Condo says:

    Now, why anyone else would move here I do not know why…but 16 reasons were ok with me at the time I got married. Just don’t buy a condo!

  191. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [182]. Grim,

    I got proximity to wealth in the Brig, McLean, Boston, even here. That doesn’t float my boat. Midtown director is great but there are other stops. Top HS? That’s Bout the only attraction.

  192. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No doubt. Higher up on the scale than ridgewood. Ridgewood is geared towards the wealthy professional raising a family. The areas below are big time money that live a more isolated lifestyle as compared to a community oriented setting.

    Marilyn says:
    June 3, 2015 at 5:50 pm
    177, your right the real wealth belt is the Bedminster, Peapack, and quieter more open areas of NJ. You would never even know the wealth of the people on the gravel roads in Bedminster because they live so understated.

  193. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bergen county towns in the upper tier all offer you that small town/tight community feel to them. If you want the big lots then you need to go to Morris or somerset. Big lots in Essex or Bergen counties are insane. Alpine, need like 7 million for an avg home. Big lots, but big money.

  194. phoenix says:

    Chevy Spark EV
    $139 monthly lease with no money down.

    Only 82 mile range, enough for some. Amazing you can lease a new car for less than your cable/cell phone bill……
    https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/chevy-spark-ev-electric-car-sales-suddenly-surged-151500281.html

  195. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When GQ asked Vaughn about where he stands on the American Government, Vaughn responded with the following:

    “Edward Snowden is a hero. I like what he did. My idea of treason is that you sell secrets to the enemy. He gave information to the American people. Snowden didn’t take information for money or dogmas. Governments claim to write endless laws to protect us, a law for this, a law for that, but are they working? I don’t think so. The consequences are that there is a staggering loss of freedom for the individual. I look at the drug wars and they are absolutely f***ing ridiculous. There is a black market and the prisons are overcrowded and it’s not preventing drug use. There’s a corruption that goes all the way to the top.”

    Read more at http://thefreethoughtproject.com/snowdens-hero-drug-wars-failure-guns-hunting-vince-vaughn-tells-is/#xuKE4ukxs7AKEuaQ.99

  196. The Great Pumpkin says:

    GQ asked Vaughn about what he thought on the American’s right to own a gun. This was his response:

    “I support people having a gun in public full stop, not just in your home. We don’t have the right to bear arms because of burglars; we have the right to bear arms to resist the supreme power of a corrupt and abusive government. It’s not about duck hunting; it’s about the ability of the individual. It’s the same reason we have freedom of speech. It’s well known that the greatest defence against an intruder is the sound of a gun hammer being pulled back. All these gun shootings that have gone down in America since 1950, only one or maybe two have happened in non-gun-free zones. Take mass shootings. They’ve only happened in places that don’t allow guns. These people are sick in the head and are going to kill innocent people. They are looking to slaughter defenceless human beings. They do not want confrontation. In all of our schools it is illegal to have guns on campus, so again and again these guys go and shoot up these f***ing schools because they know there are no guns there. They are monsters killing six-year-olds.”

    Read more at http://thefreethoughtproject.com/snowdens-hero-drug-wars-failure-guns-hunting-vince-vaughn-tells-is/#xuKE4ukxs7AKEuaQ.99

  197. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Below is Vaughn’s response after he’s asked by GQ if he thinks guns should be allowed in schools.

    “Of course. You think the politicians that run my country and your country don’t have guns in the schools their kids go to? They do. And we should be allowed the same rights. Banning guns is like banning forks in an attempt to stop making people fat. Taking away guns, taking away drugs, the booze, it won’t rid the world of criminality.”

    Read more at http://thefreethoughtproject.com/snowdens-hero-drug-wars-failure-guns-hunting-vince-vaughn-tells-is/#xuKE4ukxs7AKEuaQ.99

  198. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Post 200!!

  199. Alex Bevan says:

    144

    You misspoke. You meant Daady’s portfolio, right?

  200. leftwing says:

    Hahaha, if it were still business hours we could break 300 posts with the next gem.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-03/jamie-dimon-becomes-billionaire-ushering-in-era-of-the-megabank-iagiwwl8

  201. Alex Bevan says:

    All of the Marilyn love here is funny. If her name was Moesha, lived in Patterson and admitted to being a crack head for years she would never hear the end of it. Daddy spot her a few million and now she’s a shining light of liberty, being all bootstrappy.

    I assume chifi is too busy googling her name to earn a commission to call her out on her anti-semitism.

    Jersey Strong.

  202. grim says:

    I thought Pumpkin and Marilyn were the same person, no?

  203. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [99] Lib – I think you misunderstand my intentions with this game, and what percentage of my total retirement assets I am playing with. As I’ve been with my company just under 5 years, this is less than $200K, which I’ve nearly doubled from the just over $100K I’ve put in (there are company matches, etc. but my contribution is under $125K so far). I am fine to get zero return with this money, but why not get 15-25% if I can? This is not at all about timing a bottom, but rather, the assumption that any large down day will be recovered in this non-normal market (look at FAS, triple leveraged and looks like a growth stock – not at all possible in a “free” market, it should eat itself up). I am absolutely not timing a bottom, just assuming a big down will shortly be countered by a much bigger up. I can’t buy on the big down in my 401K unless I have cash. I know this should not go on forever, but given my limited investment choices, there is no safe haven anyway. The “Stable Value” fund should in no way return 2.5% if it is safe, yet it does. If the bottom drops out (as it should), my safest choice, the quasi-money market, might break the buck, so there is no safety. I don’t spend more that 20 days at a time in stock funds, yet I’m up 4.15% in this portfolio through June 1, spending most of my time in the closest thing to cash that is offered in our crappy plan. Earlier today I say VINIX would close around 193.75, it closed at 193.77.

    BTW – Tech bubble – I was on a ski vacation where I got engaged the first week of March 2000, and I was selling everything from my laptop at the same time and shorted the market. I should have held my shorts longer, I would have made a bundle.

    9/11 – I was hugely short, I think PMCS puts were making me a lot of money, but I had many others. Selfishly I couldn’t wait until the markets re-opened so I could see how much I made.

    2008 – I was all QID and WAMU puts. My best year ever.

    March 2009 – December 2009 – Here lie my biggest failures. I was still short and scratching my head how this market could go up, and up, and up. It just didn’t seem right. I’m pretty sure it wasn’t.

  204. Fabius Maximus says:

    #172 leftwing

    Punkin, as I stated, ‘tiering’ towns is subjective. Unless you can point me to some absolute measure.

    Here’s one, from the time of the crash in 2007/2008 Ridgewood pumped out a constant 3 or 4 sales a week. Price might have been down YOY, but inventory turned over like clockwork at all levels. Some neighboring towns dried up for periods, Ridgewood was constant.

    The school are great for the most part, just don’t be poor. My friends sent their daughter to IHA rather than put her through Mean Girls High.

  205. NJT says:

    I dumped a bunch single family houses (all updated and in mint condition) that I was renting out in Morris County just before the bubble really expanded. I figured ‘there’s no way prices can go much higher, who can afford it?’. Ya, I lost some good tenants that didn’t have great credit but never imagined they’d be giving ‘fog a mirror’ mortgages. Still whipping myself. Could have doubled my money by waiting 3-4 more years.

    On the flip side I would have had to deal with trash tenants during that time as tenant quality was dropping like the Hindenburg. Eh, what’s a few years of headaches. Well, after a string of scumbags in one place, I was tired. Should have kept focused on the money.

  206. leftwing says:

    203. presume your own reaction, not mine please.

    207. njt, about where in morris county? i’ve looked over time, just could not find anything cash flow positive enough to make sense….

  207. leftwing says:

    205. got b1tch slapped by bac today, bit of a put trade i should have taken off yesterday at close…oh well, very little left to lose, let it ride through friday

  208. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [207] NJT – You had my exact mindset from the other side of the closing table.

    1997 – I was renting a nice 3 BR 2 bath house in Centerport LI for $1800/month (another couple hundred for the lawn guy, plus all the usual expenses) when one of my younger sisters bought a house in Scotch Plains for $250K. I’m thinking, “Don’t they know that’s a quarter of a million dollars?”

    flash forward

    2002 – I was pre-approved for a $645K mortgage, but there was no way in hell I was going to borrow that much. Instead we put down 40% ($90K) on a $260K condo in Boston. I was fully accepting that we were likely to lose a lot of that down payment when the market crashed 40 minutes after we closed. At least we’ll be able to sell without bringing money to the table. I just spent more than a quarter million on 900 square feet! Insane.

  209. NJT says:

    #208

    Rockaway, Denville & Mountain lakes.

    All have buses direct into the city and train stations within a mile or less from most areas.

    Bought and fixed them up slowly back in the 90s. Even lived in a couple. No mansions (except for a Mc that I lived in for a while) just typical 2-3 bedroom stuff. Mostly (I said mostly) rented to singles or DINKS (Dual Income No Kids) commuting professionals.

    Man the opportunities were sweet for picking up properties cheap (that needed just a little work) from about 95-99. A good credit score got instant equity loans and the banks were lax.

    Worst thing about it was my debt load was so incredible (to some, but I had at least 100%positive cash flow on all but one and that one maybe…150%) that I was having a hard time getting consulting gigs! (they thought I would steal because I was so far in debt). Eh, but most of them were banks. Tech. companies didn’t care.

    Giving mortgages to McDonalds employees wrecked my early retirement. Now, I’ll be working for…a few more years (damn kids – didn’t count on having them, either).

    Now in Warren Co. rebuilding.

  210. NJT says:

    *Note

    When I went to College the second time my part-time job was with a local contractor. Guy taught me a lot about home repair and renovation plus, paid me cash.

    Learned more on my own after that and now…there isn’t much I cant do…well, except chimneys. Sure I’ve done some repair but they are tricky and dangerous things. I’d rather fiddle with a furnace than them.

  211. 1987 condo says:

    Blog breaks internet!

    Marilyn posts about lifting reminds me of the carla dunlop and cory everson days, what the heck, rachel mclish too!

  212. Wily Millenial says:

    I actually spent a year working in Woburn. Lord, what an awful place. At least it was a grinding 45 minute commute from my own garbage town at the time.

  213. D-FENS says:

    Robots bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.

    @TheEconomist: A robotic sewing machine could throw garment workers in low-cost countries out of a job http://t.co/VtZcdnWBka http://t.co/VH3LPkMVRG

  214. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [214] wily

    I grew up very close to Woburn. We didn’t have a high opinion of the place. At least the police chief there is a former law school classmate so I got no problems there.

  215. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    I’m shocked, shocked . . .

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102726348

  216. Marilyn says:

    204, HA HA your right. However I did manage to get a degree from Seton Hall with a 3.999. But honestly the only difference is most blacks did not smoke crack. They were too into weed. Only the white losers smoked it. Some of the people I know still do, watch out for those 49 year old white roofers.

  217. Marilyn says:

    No I meant MY portfolio to that comment. I have more money now than Daddy. Its all mine, I manage it and Dad is too old to deal with it. Nope Dad may have started it, added to it time to time, sold and bought things but its only in my name and mine. Dad has the trust. He takes a certain percentage to live off the trust and a pension from Mobil Exxon. So nope wrong its mine.

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