9 years of foreclosure inventory in NJ

From Black Knight Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight’s April Mortgage Monitor: 62 Percent of Seriously Delinquent Loans Have Undergone Home Retention Actions; Florida Sees Greatest Backlog Improvement

This month, Black Knight examined the most recent data on home retention actions — i.e., loan modifications and repayment plans — and found that of the approximately 952,000 borrowers who are 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure, 62 percent have been through some form of home retention program. As Black Knight Data & Analytics Senior Vice President Ben Graboske explained, while overall retention actions have decreased over the past two years, they are making up a greater share of that seriously delinquent inventory.

“In analyzing the data around home retention initiatives, we found that nearly one in five seriously delinquent borrowers are currently taking part in an active trial modification or payment plan,” said Graboske. “With 62 percent of loans 90 or more days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure having been through some form of home retention action, we’re currently seeing the highest level of saturation yet, but that’s only marginally up from last year – in other words, that saturation level is beginning to flatten. Overall, home retention actions have declined 42 percent over the past two years, but at the same time have increased nine percent as a share of that seriously delinquent inventory. We’re also starting to see some redundancy in this activity – 70 percent of all new trial modifications and repayment plans have already been through one or more home retention actions previously.”

As Graboske went on to explain further, though there has been great improvement in both seriously delinquent and active foreclosure inventories, they still remain two and three times their pre-crisis norms, respectively, with 28 percent of the remaining inventory located in just three states: Florida, New York and New Jersey.

“Of these three states, Florida has seen the most improvement, with a 37 percent decline in inventory over the last year, and a 63 percent drop over the last two years,” Graboske said. “On the other hand, low foreclosure completion rates in New York and New Jersey have contributed to lingering inventory in those states. Looking at pipeline ratios — the length of time it would take to work through the backlog at the current rate of foreclosure completions — we see New York and New Jersey with nearly 13 and nine years of inventory, respectively. Even though Florida peaked with 20 percent of the entire state being 90 or more days past due, its pipeline ratio was never longer than 10 years and is currently the lowest among all the judicial foreclosure states at just under three years. Compare that to Washington, D.C., which uses a non-judicial foreclosure process and a comparatively very small backlog inventory, yet still has a pipeline of over 43 years, primarily due to extremely low foreclosure sales volume there.”

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121 Responses to 9 years of foreclosure inventory in NJ

  1. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    frist

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Obamatrade includes Immigration Reform, fast-tracked and secret. Who woulda thunk it?

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/10/revealed-the-secret-immigration-chapter-in-obamas-trade-agreement/

  3. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    “But as details of the trade pact get leaked, it’s becoming apparent trade liberalization may be only part of TPP. Much of the agreement’s language appears to be devoted to establishing global authoritarian decision-making on environmental, energy, labor and immigration policy.

    http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/060815-756312-secret-obama-trade-deal-is-about-more-than-free-trade.htm

  4. grim says:

    Disgusted this morning.

    N.J. medical-bill reform stalls

    A measure meant to protect patients from surprise medical bills and rein in exorbitant charges to insurance companies has suffered a significant setback, and its sponsors said Wednesday they will regroup amid strenuous opposition from physicians and some hospitals, including a Hudson County chain whose bills are among the nation’s highest.

    The measure foundered earlier this week in the Senate Commerce Committee, when it became clear that it didn’t have the votes to move it forward. As a result, the bill could not advance to the Senate Budget Committee and the full Senate.

    State Sen. Joseph Vitale, the Middlesex Democrat who heads the Senate Health Committee and is the measure’s prime sponsor, expressed his disappointment, saying that opponents who testified against the bill had been motivated by “personal and corporate greed,” while “consumers were left out of the equation.”

    As long as action on the measure is delayed, he said, “health care consumers are getting gouged and ripped off at every turn. Who speaks for them? I thought it was the Legislature.”

  5. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    RealtyTrac: Zombie foreclosures increase in half of U.S. metros

    While homeowner-vacated zombie foreclosures are improving across the country, they still remain, and are getting worse, in some top-foreclosure states like New Jersey and New York.

    According to RealtyTrac’s latest zombie foreclosure report, homeowner-vacated zombie foreclosures nationwide are down 10% from a year ago to 127,021 as of the end of the second quarter. This is down 11% from the previous quarter and down 10% from second quarter 2014.

    Zombie foreclosures represented about one in five of the 527,047 U.S. properties in foreclosure. Also, one in every 1,040 U.S. housing units is an owner-vacated zombie foreclosure.

    Here comes the not-so-positive half. Zombie foreclosure are still up from a year ago in half of U.S. metros, increasing in 91 of the 183 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report.

    Top markets where zombie foreclosures increased from a year ago include: New York (up 38%), Los Angeles (up 39%), Houston (up 38%), Philadelphia (up 19%) and Boston (up 14%).

  6. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New York Renters Move at Frenzied Pace in Search of Deals

    New York renters were on the move in May, fleeing their apartments to escape rising costs and seek better deals elsewhere in the city.

    The number of new apartment leases signed in Brooklyn increased more than fourfold from a year earlier to 1,079, and new deals in Queens more than doubled to 259, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and Douglas Elliman Real Estate. In Manhattan, new rentals jumped 85 percent, the most in more than four years.

    “It’s the tenants’ resistance to rising rents at the time of lease renewal,” said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel and a Bloomberg View contributor. “They want to look elsewhere in search of affordability.”

    Rents citywide have been climbing fast and hovering near all-time highs, forcing tenants to pay more no matter where they turn. Manhattan rents have risen for 15 consecutive months and reached a quarterly record at the end of March, according to Miller Samuel. In Brooklyn, formerly a refuge for tenants seeking cheaper deals, rents hit a peak in April and stayed about the same last month.

    In May, the median monthly rent in Manhattan was $3,380, up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the report. Rents rose 4.8 percent in Brooklyn to a median $2,933. In the Queens neighborhoods of Long Island City, Astoria, Sunnyside and Woodside, the median fell 12 percent to $2,597 as small apartments accounted for the largest share of new leases, Miller said.

  7. anon (the good one) says:

    get the government out of my Medicare! let the market be!

    don’t get sick if you can’t afford a doctor. death before free healthcare

    grim says:
    June 11, 2015 at 6:24 am

    A measure meant to protect patients from surprise medical bills and rein in exorbitant charges to insurance companies has suffered a significant setback…

    As long as action on the measure is delayed, he said, “health care consumers are getting gouged and ripped off at every turn. Who speaks for them? I thought it was the Legislature.”

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Powerful statement and dead on. Govt for the people has been hijacked by greed and lust for power.

    “As long as action on the measure is delayed, he said, “health care consumers are getting gouged and ripped off at every turn. Who speaks for them? I thought it was the Legislature.””

  9. grim says:

    7 – What the hell are you talking about?

  10. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    “small fraction”? WTF does that mean?

    The CarePoint Health system in Hudson County said that its three for-profit hospitals rely for their survival upon high out-of-network charges to the small fraction of its patients who have private insurance, and might close.

    grim says:
    June 11, 2015 at 6:24 am
    Disgusted this morning.

    N.J. medical-bill reform stalls

  11. D-FENS says:

    10 – With a business model like that, maybe they should close.

  12. grim says:

    Sorry, why is letting them close down a problem?

    They are the most egregious over-biller in the country. From the Washington Post:

    50 hospitals charge uninsured more than 10 times cost of care, study finds

    Fifty hospitals in the United States are charging uninsured consumers more than 10 times the actual cost of patient care, according to research published Monday.

    All but one of the facilities are owned by for-profit entities and the largest number of hospitals — 20 — are in Florida. For the most part, researchers said, the hospitals with the highest markups are not in pricey neighborhoods or big cities, where the market might explain the higher prices.

    “They are price-gouging because they can,” said Gerard Anderson, a professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, co-author of the study in Health Affairs. “They are marking up the prices because no one is telling them they can’t.”

    He added: “These are the hospitals that have the highest markup of all 5,000 hospitals in the United States. This means when it costs the hospital $100, they are going to charge you, on average, $1,000.”

    Carepoint Health-Bayonne Med­ical Center in Bayonne, N.J., for example, also charges rates 12.6 times the actual cost of patient care. State law limits the maximum that hospitals can charge uninsured patients to 115 percent, a spokesman said.

  13. D-FENS says:

    4 -Grim, mark my words, that has Norcross written all over it.

  14. D-FENS says:

    The NJ Legislature is too busy regulating breast milk banks and pummeling legal gun owners to be bothered with consumer protections.

  15. leftwing says:

    7. anon

    Comment all you want, but as I posted previously this entire backa$$ed, b@stardized, broken, inane, incomprehensible health care system comes directly from your side of the aisle.

    Some smarter than thou liberals were afraid of wartime gouging and put in place wage and price controls seven decades ago. Employers were prohibited by law from paying more to get staff. How do you hire? They offered health care benefits as part of the job. Thus was born the mess we have today.

    Your ‘we know better’ arrogance that compels you to monkey around with everyone’s life should be checked at the door and we will all be better off. You make a mess and then try to hang it on someone else to get a mandate to screw around with it some more. Priceless.

  16. D-FENS says:

    Don’t forget to seatbelt your cat everyone…in NJ, under the animal cruelty laws, if you do not safely restrain your animal in a moving vehicle the fine is $250 – $1000.

    If you do not seatbelt your HUMAN child, the fine is $46.

    Conclusion: We need more gun laws.

  17. The left wants to steal your wealth and run your life, and the right are a bunch of war-mongering closet queens.

    We have the gubmint we deserve…perfect, and in tune with the end-of-days vibe.

  18. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:
  19. joyce says:

    15
    That’s part of the problem, but not all of it (or even most of it as of today, in my opinion).

  20. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    also the 3 min video on the middle of that page…..

  21. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [17] Splat

    The left wants to steal your wealth and run your life, and the right are a bunch of war-mongering closet queens.

    That appears to be the case. Not sure about the end of days but something is coming.

  22. leftwing says:

    A Great Flush

    Twenty comments into this morning. Skyrocketing NY rents. Foreclosure constipation. Borrower remediation working or not, who can tell. Outsize healthcare profits. Market tapping new highs. Zombie foreclosures.

    We need a good flush. 1987 style. Blow it all out. Hit the reset button.

    Sometimes you need a baseball bat to the head to get people’s attention.

  23. leftwing says:

    Joyce, respect your opinion and agree the issues are larger now.

    The cause of these issues though goes right back to the origin of associating health care with employment. Senseless. Hey, let’s tie it to homeownership instead. Or maybe car ownership. Or shoe size. Makes as much sense….

    The issue is that at the time there were huge social and demographic changes along with massive advances (read costs) in medical care. We abdicated any proactive decision or debate on the best delivery system because that decision was made backdoor through wartime regulation.

    My simplest analogy: If you built a car frame so that all four wheels point randomly you can spend all the time in the world monkeying with the engine and transmission, it ain’t gonna fix what’s wrong….

  24. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Tell us how you really feel greenie.

    Alan Greenspan: US real estate is stagnating

    Sure, some cities are seeing buildings (and prices) rising, but construction of both homes and commercial properties overall isn’t back to where it was before the Great Recession.

    “We haven’t come out of the bottom,” Greenspan told CNNMoney’s Cristina Alesci. “We are in the position now of secular stagnation.”

    Secular stagnation has become a buzz word for little to no growth.

    Greenspan says that before the recession, about 8% of America’s economy was from construction of houses and buildings that were expected to last for 20-plus years. Now that sector makes up only 4% of U.S. GDP (gross domestic product, the standard measure of economic growth).

    While Greenspan acknowledges the most recent housing data is showing a little bit of pick up, he says, “Single family housing is still only one-third of where they [sic] were in 2006 and earlier.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/10/investing/alan-greenspan-housing-stagnation/

  25. leftwing says:

    And btw, Becky Quick looks downright scary.

    I usually have on CBS and I guess by the time I flip to CNBC her segment is done. Haven’t seen her in a while.

    Holy cow, what happened? She went from a little cute to looking like the beastly overfed, overcaffeinated, queen bee @ss, Expedition driving suburban neo-men0pausal fake blonde that darn near T-boned me for a Dunkin Donut space an hour ago.

    Another omen.

  26. Bystander says:

    While I firmly believe that we are in another real estate bubble, this guys claims that 40% of jumbo loans in NYC are delinquent! That takes some balls to put forth. Seems like a nimrod pushing his own strange economic formulas.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-recoverys-a-big-fat-lie-2015-6

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [21] FKA,

    “Not sure about the end of days but something is coming.”

    Just for grins, I’d like to get a seces-sion referendum question on the ballot in a red state. Its mere presence would drive the MSNBC snowflakes wild.

    Better yet, get a referendum on the ballots of several states calling for a Con-Con. It would have a better chance of passing and would make both sides of the chattering class apoplectic.

    I question the legal effect of either but that really isn’t the point. It’s as close as we will come to seeing any sort of meaningful civil discord outside of an occasional vainglorious insurrection attempt by a band of Sons of Liberty wannabes.

    Get some popcorn, a fruity drink, and a beach chair, and enjoy the hilarity.

  28. JJ says:

    Almost 99% of all Manhattan rentals are currently occupied, according to a new market report.

    The vacancy rate is now 1.07%, the lowest it has been in three years, Citi Habitats reports.

    Last year at this time, Manhattan vacancies were at 1.17%.

    At the same time, rents are at their highest. Manhattan dwellers pay, on average, $4,081 a month — from Inwood to the Financial District — for the privilege of living in Gotham.

    That tops the previous average rent record of $3,902, which was set in May 2014, according to realty giant Douglas Elliman.

    Soaring rents in Manhattan continue to push renters to the outer boroughs.

  29. anon (the good one) says:

    “Obamacare’s legacy will be its substance: it has permanently reshaped the social contract in America. It is now the federal government’s role to make heath insurance affordable and available to all its citizens, and any Republican president who seriously wants to repeal or reform Obamacare will need to propose a replacement that fulfills that basic bargain.”

    @ezraklein: Obamacare’s legacy. It won’t help the Democrats much, but it will do an enormous amount for the uninsured
    The man who helped kill Clintoncare explains why Obamacare can’t be killed
    Updated by Ezra Klein on June 10, 2015, 12:00 p.m. ET @ezraklein

    In 1993, Republican strategist (and Weekly Standard editor) William Kristol was running the Project for the Republican Future, where he thought about how to assure a — you guessed it — Republican future. And at the time, the path forward seemed clear: Republicans had to kill President Clinton’s health-care plan.

    This was far from consensus when Kristol proposed it. Many congressional Republicans thought they would need to bargain with Clinton, propose their alternative, get Democrats to make some concessions, and eventually compromise on something. That’s how Washington worked, after all. You couldn’t beat something with nothing.

    Kristol, predicting the more partisan shape of the politics to come, cut through that nonsense. His famous (or, if you prefer, infamous) memo is a seminal document not just because it helped drive the Republican strategy against Clinton’s health-care bill, but because it stands, even today, as the clearest rationale for the anti-cooperative lawmaking that has become the norm.

    William Kristol, author of the 1993 memo that helped take down President Bill Clinton’s health-care bill.

    “Any Republican urge to negotiate a ‘least bad’ compromise with the Democrats, and thereby gain momentary public credit for helping the president ‘do something’ about health care, should also be resisted,” Kristol wrote. “Passage of the Clinton health care plan, in any form, would guarantee and likely make permanent an unprecedented federal intrusion into and disruption of the American economy — and the establishment of the largest federal entitlement program since Social Security.”

    If Republicans let any version of Clinton’s bill pass, Kristol continued, the political consequences would be grim. “It will relegitimize middle-class dependence for ‘security’ on government spending and regulation. It will revive the reputation of the party that spends and regulates, the Democrats, as the generous protector of middle-class interests. And it will at the same time strike a punishing blow against Republican claims to defend the middle class by restraining government.”

    Kristol’s memo has attained the status of legend in Washington. In a 2010 Slate column, Jacob Weisberg accused Kristol of killing the “Responsible Republican,” writing that his “message marks the pivotal moment when Republicans shifted from fundamentally responsible partners in governing the country to uncompromising, hyperpartisan antagonists on all issues.”

    I think that gives Kristol too much credit, and the objective realities of American politics too little agency. American politics was polarizing with or without Kristol, and the zero-sum lawmaking that dominates the Republican Party today was probably an inevitable result of these trends — Kristol simply saw this earlier, and leaned into it more eagerly, than his peers.

    Either way, we now live in the world Kristol foresaw. Today’s GOP lawmakers wouldn’t need a memo to know that working with President Obama to pass a massive new entitlement doesn’t dovetail with their electoral or ideological interests. Where Republican strategists once had to work to prevent cooperation, today obstruction has become the norm, and it’s compromise that requires an extraordinary effort.

    But 22 years later, it’s not just the politics that have changed; it’s the policy, too. Democrats did pass a massive health-care reform bill — and they passed it over the kind of lockstep opposition from Republicans that Kristol proposed in 1993. So we can now look back at Kristol’s memo and try to ask what he got right and what he got wrong.

    “I was trolling before anyone knew what trolling was”
    For all his apocalyptic pronouncements — and there are a lot of those — Kristol is about as happy a political warrior as you’ll find. I reached him after he landed in Israel, over a crackling phone connection, and he was a lot more cheerful than I would have been after an international flight.

    Kristol freely admits he was trying to shock the Republican Party into a political strategy many of its members would have been too genteel to mention, much less follow. “I was trolling before anyone knew what trolling was,” he laughs. But trolling, he argues, was what Clinton’s bill called for. “When I wrote that memo, there was a real prospect of it getting bipartisan support.”

    In retrospect, Kristol thinks his memo was misinterpreted as more Machiavellian than it actually was. “I wasn’t scared of [Clinton’s bill] because it was good policy, but because bad policy can become institutionalized,” he says. “When these things get passed it’s hard to unwind them.”

    Obamacare, he continues, proves the point. Already, congressional Republicans are falling all over themselves to show that if the Supreme Court repeals the law’s subsidies, Republicans will somehow fix the resulting mess. A party that can’t even permit the Supreme Court to destroy Obamacare is never going to be able to do it alone.

    Now that Obamacare is delivering health insurance to millions of people, Kristol says, it can be replaced, but it can’t simply be eliminated. “You need a credible alternative. You can’t just return to the health system of 2009.”

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [23] leftwing

    As much as the current system has its orgins in wartime legislation, there have been numerous opportunities over the years to change it. Instead, we doubled down with ERISA in 1974, Medicaid, and now Obamacare.

    Form follows function and you have to ask yourself why this system persists: It’s because both sides want it or, more to the point, don’t want the alternative.

    So, in an effort to move to something resembling universal coverage, but keep from shifting the (entire) burden onto the taxpayer, we have Obamacare. And it is a hot mess–so much so that I have been cleaning up on it for years. The benefits organization my firm belongs to published a survey and the No. 1 fear plan sponsors have about O-care isn’t cost; that’s No. 2. The No. 1 fear by a wide margin is administrative burden. And from where I sit, they have a right to feel that way.

    Of course, that goes right into my bank account so I have no problem with it.

  31. nwnj says:

    One thing that I see from both parties is a concerted effort to destroy the working man and by extension the middle class.

    Each has their reasons for doing it, the monied interests want to subjugate white collar workers in the name of corporate profit.

    The lefts simply wants to flood the place with third world garbage and retain a permanent underclass. They can’t do that without a constant stream of ignorance.

  32. JJ says:

    Gross: Reverse head & shoulders (yields) in all global bond markets. Necklines being broken by the hour. Bearish.

    — Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) June 9, 2015

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    From the architect himself:

    http://economics.mit.edu/files/6415

    He (rightly) points out that you won’t ever achieve true single payer equality. People won’t stand for it and you simply cannot nationalize doctors. And, as in all things, the folks at either end might like this just fine, but the ones who would get screwed, well, you know where they sit.

  34. JJ says:

    Joe Currin on Squak box was talking they are doing an new over the counter Botox this morning turned to Becky Quick and said so are you going to try this on your face. I almost spit up my coffee. She is hagged looking

    leftwing says:
    June 11, 2015 at 8:45 am
    And btw, Becky Quick looks downright scary.

    I usually have on CBS and I guess by the time I flip to CNBC her segment is done. Haven’t seen her in a while.

    Holy cow, what happened? She went from a little cute to looking like the beastly overfed, overcaffeinated, queen bee @ss, Expedition driving suburban neo-men0pausal fake blonde that darn near T-boned me for a Dunkin Donut space an hour ago.

    Another omen.

  35. So, Plume, your job is basically a hedge against Bommacare?

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [31] NWNJ

    I find myself agreeing with Splat (or whatever he calls himself now), that it’s all going to shite.

    That’s why I joined the vulture class. Vultures eat when everyone else is dead.

  37. JJ says:

    BPOP Trups rock the house as well as their pref stock.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [35] Splat

    My job is basically a hedge against the way things are going. Bommacare is just one indicator of our slide into eurosclerosis.

  39. JJ says:

    POPULAR NA CAP TR I BONDS
    6.564% 09/15/2034 MAKE WHOLE

    Still can buy at around 80

  40. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    hit the big 4-0 is what happened…

    Holy cow, what happened?

    leftwing says:
    June 11, 2015 at 8:45 am
    And btw, Becky Quick looks downright scary.

    I usually have on CBS and I guess by the time I flip to CNBC her segment is done. Haven’t seen her in a while.

    Holy cow, what happened? She went from a little cute to looking like the beastly overfed, overcaffeinated, queen bee @ss, Expedition driving suburban neo-men0pausal fake blonde that darn near T-boned me for a Dunkin Donut space an hour ago.

    Another omen.

  41. leftwing says:

    I agree ObamaCare isn’t disappearing. It is just the latest piece of garbage welded onto that union made, late Friday POS car we call healthcare.

    Healthcare is 18% of GDP. It is probably the most ‘intimate’ part of government spending as it deals directly with your physical well being.

    Want to cry? Read how and what the Dems rammed through on absolutely no margin for most important part of your life. The only item this article overlooks is the effect of Teddy’s passing. Another dead K3nnedy, the one who championed healthcare, gave them the emotional component they needed to go over the top (“approve it for Teddy”).

    This is good government? This is how you want a major portion of GDP determined? You want these people in your life, even more involved than now? Really?

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/physiciansfoundation/2014/03/26/a-look-back-at-how-the-president-was-able-to-sign-obamacare-into-law-four-years-ago/

  42. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    for JJ repost from yesterday…..
    chicagofinance says:
    June 10, 2015 at 5:32 pm
    You know JJ…if I was like clot and adopted handles based on stuff you say, such as “Splat What Was He Thinking” or “There Went Meat”…….I would probably appear as “Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares” or something similar…..is it worth a change?

  43. Marilyn says:

    I have now added to the deal to my house a one year supply of free dog food. That ought to bring the rest of the hillbillies to consider my house. Ohh and I will lower the price.

  44. Libturd in Union says:

    “opponents who testified against the bill had been motivated by “personal and corporate greed,”

    I wonder how much they PAID the legislators?

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    Vigoda>Christopher Lee

    He was one of my favorite character actors. Just loved that voice.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [44] marilyn

    That one year supply of dog food may also attract Splat. Appeals to his prepper side and he doesn’t think any restaurant in NJ serves at a level above dog food anyway.

  47. Juice Box says:

    re # 16 – They don’t call em a Backseat bullet for nothing.

  48. Juice Box says:

    re # 24 -memory lane…why does anyone even listen to Greenspan or Bernanke anymore? It is if they haven’t been thoroughly discredited. They have, stop printing everything they say already.

    “On June 9, 2005, Greenspan told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, “Although a bubble in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely, there does appear to be, at a minimum, signs of froth in some local markets, where home prices seem to have risen to unsustainable levels.”

    AND JUST A FEW MONTHS LATER….

    WaPO
    Thursday, October 27, 2005

    “Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html

  49. Juice Box says:

    re # 44 – Marilyn, Catilyn whatever you are, think outside the lines. A years supply worth of Meth will get you a bidding war for the place. Imagine the open house!

  50. Marilyn says:

    50, HAHA!!! Did not think of that. That’s for the Hewitt losers. But you make me laugh!!

  51. Marilyn says:

    Catilyn and splat, ohh I tell you, I will miss some of the NJ people. Too bad I don’t have you two as my neighbors , I may have just stayed! Ok the dog food idea is not good. However everyone in NW NJ gets the septic mafia out here!! HAHA!! Mendham NJ 4000 just for the town permit. They don’t even dig dirt until they get that 4k!! What a gig this shit is!

  52. Marilyn says:

    Take a shit in PA and it costs you only 6 K, take a shit in NJ and it cost at least 20K!

  53. phoenix says:

    I would vote to privatize medicare in an instant if possible. This is where most healthcare dollars are spent. I am not in approval of a “phased in” model, however, only an all in “today” model. Those against this have no problem with a phased in model.
    However, I am sure those that collect from this system would not agree.
    Privatization is fine for everything else, schools, etc.
    Why not this? Ahh, we all know the answer…..

  54. Marilyn says:

    just talked to the realtor. He told me not to lower the price. Funny I always thought it was the sellers who were delusional not the agents. This case is backwards.

  55. Marilyn says:

    Saw the idiot in Waldwick today, he told me , no his house is worth 489. He wont lower it. He has had tons of people come and look. He thinks an offer is any day. And now he is dragging his 90 year old mother to Park City Utah.

  56. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Got to love predictions like this….it will happen, maybe not now but soon.

    CREDIT SUISSE: ‘There is a 60% to 70% chance that we end up in an equity bubble’

    We think there is a 60% to 70% chance that we end up in an equity bubble in the medium term, albeit with the inevitable road bumps along the way.”

    That’s according to stock market analysts at investment bank Credit Suisse, in a note sent out Thursday.

    They’re not calling anything historically unusual, in their opinion, adding that “bull markets in most assets end in bubbles.”

    The authors want to be clear — they don’t think stocks are in a bubble right now. Though some people have fretted about the length of today’s bull market (which Credit Suisse defines as any unbroken period without a slump of 20% or more), there are comparable historical periods that lasted much longer:

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-suisse-there-is-a-60-70-chance-that-a-bubble-could-form-2015-6#ixzz3cleID9Ab

  57. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [27] Comrade

    LOL, it would also bring out the constitution nutwings like Mark Levine as well.

  58. phoenix says:

    42.
    18%. Ok, that’s a lot. Since this is a board where most members believe highly in personal responsibility, how about controlling healthcare at home. We could lower the cost right there.

    “The prevalence of obesity was highest among men ages 40 to 59 years old (about 37.2 percent) and women ages 60 years old and older (about 42.3 percent), according to the World Health Organization.

    Adults ages 65 years old and older in the U.S. are reported to have a 27 percent prevalence of diabetes and account for 42 percent of all cases of diabetes.”

  59. phoenix says:

    Tell the truth,
    Are you overweight?
    Do you or did you smoke?
    Junk food junkie?
    Drink on a regular basis?
    Eat lots of red meat?
    Have lots of sexual partners (ha ha for JJ)
    Do you exercise (not lifting beer and donuts to your face), cardiac style?
    If you are not doing these things, you are part of the 18%
    No one wants the govt in their face. Cigarettes for example.
    Americans want the right to smoke, then demand that someone else pays for their disease. Companies today are on to this and charging extra for your lack of self control.
    I guess it’s better than the govt doing it, then it’s not ok. How dare they take away my rights..
    Then there is Medicaid/Medicare. Govt insurance, those that have it LOVE it.
    Doctors for the most part have to take it. Those that have it paid little in for what they get, otherwise it would not be going bankrupt now would it.
    Those that use it have committed many of the sins I listed above, but don’t pay a premium for sucking tobacco or being overweight.
    If younger adults pay a premium on being overweight or smoking, those on the govt plans should also…

  60. Libturd in Union says:

    Another example of what is wrong with government, especially in NJ. Our youngest son goes to daycare and some fool in Trenton is working their hardest to make daycare less affordable. Tell me, what gains are going to come from this. Here is a letter we just received from the owner of the daycare center.

    GNJK UPDATE & REQUIREMENTS

    Dear Parents-

    As we delve further into the GNJK initiative there are various components that will require your participation. Some are very straight forward and many require further clarification and will (hopefully) be forthcoming. Therefore, let us start with the straight forward:

    PARENT HANDBOOK-
    GNJK requires that each family acknowledge the Parent Handbook which resides on our website. Since it comprises 40+ pages we do not print it out. However, most if not all information covered in the book, is provided in our pre-enrollment discussions.

    However, GNJK requires written acknowledgement the handbook. Therefore, we will have forms created for you to acknowledge the handbook, and, to be comprehensive, acknowledgment of the documents provided in the enrollment package. These include:

    Philosophy of Discipline Agreement of Terms Walking Field Trips Guidelines for Medication Expulsion Policy
    Release of Children Communicable Disease Parent Participation Statement of Care Information to Parents

    Additionally, there is a component of GNJK which requires a ‘Medical Home’ for each child. Whereas a medical home is not a building, rather an approach to providing primary care, I am not sure what exactly what must be established here- the entirety of our population has medical coverage and a primary care provider and we are 100% compliant with immunizations. HIPA concerns are involved here and have not been addressed by GNJK. However, I will ask that you also acknowledge the concept of Medical Home concept and I will provide clarification as it is provided.

    Furthermore, the component of ‘Home Visits’ also needs clarification by GNJK. Currently, the initiative requires that 80% of the population enrolled receive home visits 3x per year. This will affect our rating if it is not completed. The concern here, as far as I see it, is: Our staff is not qualified as professionals to offer any type of diagnosis or in-home therapy (however, we may, and do, share our observations from the classroom), insurance concerns of having staff off site, traveling and in your home and the costs for the extra time required for staff to do this when you are available. Whereas I understand the concept for ‘at-risk situations’ I do not think it applies here. It appears to be a poorly thought-out and unfunded mandate which will need revision. However, we will add an acknowledgement to make our statement all encompassing.

    And, it is also our responsibility to advise you of nutrition. Therefore, we will include ongoing documentation on our website to keep you informed of good nutrition guidelines and how to prepare healthy foods. And while you are there…please be reminded to visit the Consumer Products Safety Commission’s website to be up-to-date on product recalls. (added to the acknowledgement as well…)

    There is also a requirement for Parent Workshops to be provided by school. More to come here as we learn more…

    (You will enjoy this one!!) We will no longer be able to provide “Breakfast”. Since we are unable to prepare food on site we are now unable to call anything we do ‘primary meal’. Therefore, the menu is the same- but- the name has been changed- STARTER SNAK…served from 7am to 8:30am as always. Henceforth, ESDC will provide 3 primary snacks and 1 or 2 secondary snacks. (You can’t make this stuff up…you need politicians for this!)

    In an effort to tie all the above together- Medical Home, nutrition, workshops and Home Visits, I am hoping the implementation of an assessment toll, such as Ages and Stages, and written acknowledgements will allow us to be compliant. In the meantime, we will work with what we know now to continue the GNJK process. Updates forthcoming.

    Thank you for your cooperation and I apologize for the inconvenience of having more forms in your life!

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone ever try to refinance with valley national using that 500 dollar deal? Is it a pure gimmick? Meaning, they take your money and look for any reason to not give you a loan?

  62. D-FENS says:

    Lib, state inspectors came to my kid’s preschool and cited them because they had those “resin” play yards in the grass for kids to play outside with. It has to be some sort of state certified playground equipment surrounded by something soft like “wood chips” or chopped up tires for the kids if they fall. The state certified equipment costs tens of thousands of dollars. It damn near put them out of business. They had a fundraiser and bought something….so we kept the state at bay for now. The place has been open for over 30 years and never had an accident.

  63. Libturd in Union says:

    D-Fens – My dad had to move his factory from Bayonne to Williamsburg Brooklyn for similar reasons.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [59] FKA

    I had to google him. Personally, none of that will ever come to pass, and things would have to be pretty bad if they did, but the huge issue with a Con-Con is that its never been done, no one knows what the rules are, and there is no restraint on a “runaway” convention. Those facts alone would be used to scare people away from voting for one.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    Here’s a crowdfunding idea that splat and I can get behind.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102752149

    I’d also crowdfund someone taking out anon but that’s kind of, . . . what’s the word? . . . illegal. So I will just have to hope for Providence.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Powerful post!!

    phoenix says:
    June 11, 2015 at 12:05 pm
    Tell the truth,
    Are you overweight?
    Do you or did you smoke?
    Junk food junkie?
    Drink on a regular basis?
    Eat lots of red meat?
    Have lots of sexual partners (ha ha for JJ)
    Do you exercise (not lifting beer and donuts to your face), cardiac style?
    If you are not doing these things, you are part of the 18%
    No one wants the govt in their face. Cigarettes for example.
    Americans want the right to smoke, then demand that someone else pays for their disease. Companies today are on to this and charging extra for your lack of self control.
    I guess it’s better than the govt doing it, then it’s not ok. How dare they take away my rights..
    Then there is Medicaid/Medicare. Govt insurance, those that have it LOVE it.
    Doctors for the most part have to take it. Those that have it paid little in for what they get, otherwise it would not be going bankrupt now would it.
    Those that use it have committed many of the sins I listed above, but don’t pay a premium for sucking tobacco or being overweight.
    If younger adults pay a premium on being overweight or smoking, those on the govt plans should also…

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    the JetVan in cream reminded me of Gorsky’s APC in “Babylon, A.D.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/these-insane-pimped-out-vans-for-ceos-redefine-commuting

  68. Ragnar says:

    60,
    uh oh, Phoenix just threw African Americans under the bus, implying they are not taking personal responsibility for their health. Maybe they are just following Michelle O’s advice that after going out & voting democrat, it’s ok to eat fried chicken. Instead of that exercise thing and the terrible government diet guidelines.

    •4.9 million African-American adults, or 18.7% of all African Americans ≥ 20 years of age, have diagnosed or undiagnosed diabetes, compared to 7.1% of non-Hispanic white Americans.
    •The risk of diabetes is 77% higher among African Americans than among non-Hispanic white Americans.
    •In 2006, African-American men were 2.2 times more likely to start treatment for ESRD related to diabetes than non-Hispanic white men.

    http://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/30/3/130.full

  69. 1987 Condo says:

    I’d like separate blogs for:

    Real Estate Bubble
    Healthcare Cost Bubble
    College Tuition Bubble
    Pension cost Bubble
    Wage Inequity Bubble-US
    Wage Inequity Bubble-Global

  70. Libturd in Union says:

    I’d like separate blogs for:

    Anon
    The rest of us

  71. Splat What Was He Thinking says:

    The Kennedys are only fascinating in the fact that they represent the perfect intersection of organized crime and Amerikan politics.

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [72] libturd,

    anon shouldn’t be forced to repost tweets only to himself. That’s not fair, he should have an audience.

    Send ottoman, Fabian Minimus, CCB, Ragnarian the Magnificent, and “Not” anyone to join him.

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    Interesting property-related regulation out of DC. Since they cannot mandate a national version of Mt. Laurel (it would be unconstitutional), they use a funded method.

    http://thehill.com/regulation/244620-obamas-bid-to-diversify-wealthy-neighborhoods

  74. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    FIFA’s director of communications and public affairs Walter De Gregorio resigned on Thursday, three days after telling a joke about world football’s governing body on a TV talk show.

    On Monday, De Gregorio was a guest of host Roger Schawinski on German-language station SRF. Schawinski closed the show by asking De Gregorio to tell his favourite joke about FIFA.

    De Gregorio set up the punchline by asking who was driving if himself, FIFA president Sepp Blatter and secretary general Jerome Valcke were in a car.

    After a pause for the host to comment, De Gregorio gave the answer: “The police.”

  75. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:
  76. clotluva says:

    Something in the below paragraph from the Bloomberg article in post 6 doesn’t add up. I have no doubt that rents in Manhattan are rising since I am actively looking for a new lease. But if the narrative is that rising rents in Manhattan and Brooklyn are pushing people elsewhere, then wouldn’t there be a ripple effect in prices? Particularly in commuter friendly Queens neighborhoods like Astoria, Woodside, and LIC.

    How do they even measure “small apartments”? And what would justify such a change in the apparent preference for smaller apartment sizes, YOY?

    I think the overbuilding of LIC might be more of a believable narrative, but even that doesn’t pass the sniff test for a 12% drop.

    “In May, the median monthly rent in Manhattan was $3,380, up 2.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the report. Rents rose 4.8 percent in Brooklyn to a median $2,933. In the Queens neighborhoods of Long Island City, Astoria, Sunnyside and Woodside, the median fell 12 percent to $2,597 as small apartments accounted for the largest share of new leases, Miller said.”

  77. joyce says:

    Comrade,

    You had to look up who Mark Levin was?

  78. Walking Bye says:

    Had a co worker refinance with Valley, got a pretty good deal at the time 2.5%for a 15 year. He did have to open an account and direct deposit to get it though

  79. joyce says:

    Come on… how many things in place today are there because they’ve been interpreted into existence?

    Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:
    June 11, 2015 at 1:22 pm

    Since they cannot _____ (it would be unconstitutional), they …. .

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [79] Joyce,

    First, the name given was Mark Levine. I did not know that spelling.

    Second, he is not on my reading list of constitutional scholars, I’m afraid.

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume, speaking from the Cone of Silence says:

    [81] Joyce,

    This one is a pretty hard and fast rule. It was one of the threshold questions put to me when I was being considered for a position as deputy counsel to the DOT I.G. (I got the job but turned it down).

  82. joyce says:

    82
    That’s fair. I was just surprised because he’s well known (unfortunately)… and the context clues of con-con and the name, though misspelled, I thought would have given it away.

  83. ccb223 says:

    Com — yes, I see. You and everyone who thinks exactly like you want your own blog so you can sit around in a big circle jerk.

    God forbid somebody have a different POV. What a wonderful and interesting place your world would be…a world where everyone is a white, middle-aged ultra-conservative tax lawyer. Sign me up!

    (just threw up a little in my mouth)

  84. joyce says:

    83
    Was not the mandated medicare expansion (enforced by withholding of others funds if not complied with) struck down recently by the schizo USSC while they upheld the obamacare individual mandate enforced by a tax/fine?

    further proof that all of the 9 black-robed tyrants deserve capital punishment

  85. xolepa says:

    (54) Hmm. That reminds me. Gotta get my septic cleaned.

    Oh, yeah. Dug a hole deep and wide enough to bury a bunch. I put in risers as my septic is 30″ below ground level. Too much digging at my age.

    Got any bodies to hide?

    BTW, septic is being pumped out tomorrow. Anybody have experiences with Septic aerators?

  86. joyce says:

    ccb223,
    If you remove the word conservative and replace with Republican, that would have been spot on. He, as it is typically defined today, is clearly not a “conservative.” (#30/36)

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks. Appreciate it. Going to look into it.

    Walking Bye says:
    June 11, 2015 at 1:38 pm
    Had a co worker refinance with Valley, got a pretty good deal at the time 2.5%for a 15 year. He did have to open an account and direct deposit to get it though

  88. grim says:

    Are you f*cking kidding me.

    Tax break for yacht buyers sails through N.J. Senate panel

    A bill that would limit the amount of sales tax New Jersey can collect on boat purchases to $20,000 sailed through a state Senate committee Thursday, leading a liberal advocacy group to accuse lawmakers of throwing the little guy overboard.

    The bill’s (S2784) sponsor, state Sen. Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic), said it’s needed to keep New Jerseyans from buying boats across the bay in Delaware.

    ‘We have a very viable boat building industry in south Jersey, closer to the shore communities. But that is not what it once was,” Whelan said. “So we can keep the higher tax in place and have no one buy their boats in New Jersey. Even those who build boats in New Jersey go across the bay to Delaware to buy them.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can’t make this shit up!! It really is sickening. This happens in a state that is complaining it is broke?

    First thing I’m teaching my daughter about life is that it is not fair. I do not want her growing up thinking life is fair. It’s way too much of a letdown to put someone through.

    grim says:
    June 11, 2015 at 2:05 pm
    Are you f*cking kidding me.

    Tax break for yacht buyers sails through N.J. Senate panel

    A bill that would limit the amount of sales tax New Jersey can collect on boat purchases to $20,000 sailed through a state Senate committee Thursday, leading a liberal advocacy group to accuse lawmakers of throwing the little guy overboard.

    The bill’s (S2784) sponsor, state Sen. Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic), said it’s needed to keep New Jerseyans from buying boats across the bay in Delaware.

    ‘We have a very viable boat building industry in south Jersey, closer to the shore communities. But that is not what it once was,” Whelan said. “So we can keep the higher tax in place and have no one buy their boats in New Jersey. Even those who build boats in New Jersey go across the bay to Delaware to buy them.

  90. grim says:

    Only in a democrat reality would pushing for a tax on millionaires while simultaneously cutting a tax on millionaires make any sense.

    Sure it has nothing to do with Sen. Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) getting kickbacks or campaign contributions.

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And people wonder why this country is so screwed up.

    grim says:
    June 11, 2015 at 2:20 pm
    Only in a democrat reality would pushing for a tax on millionaires while simultaneously cutting a tax on millionaires make any sense.

    Sure it has nothing to do with Sen. Jim Whelan (D-Atlantic) getting kickbacks or campaign contributions.

  92. Marilyn says:

    unbelievable. Did you read the comments on that article. The one about the tell this to the income inequality voters was funny.

  93. D-FENS says:

    Head down to south Jersey on June 27th Grim….help collect signatures to recall the Senate President. If they succeed, they’ll be studying it in Political Science courses for years.

  94. leftwing says:

    “Can’t make this shit up!! It really is sickening. This happens in a state that is complaining it is broke?”

    Really punkin? This is what you want. Rules in place that you can change to manipulate people’s behavior. Put something on the books, then alter/waive/increase it to get your desired outcome.

    Got your panties all twisted that the outcome targeted here isn’t the one you personally feel is correct? Yeah, better be careful. Once the wall is breached there is a slippery slope where things don’t always go your way.

    Above is Exhibit 32 why we should go back to the original model of part time citizen-legislators. The more you can shutdown State spending the fewer areas for monkey business.

  95. leftwing says:

    I have a perfect idea how we can fix this State/country.

    Get a group of citizens together. Split them down the middle. They take turns.

    The first group finds a real obnoxious piece of government spending they don’t like. They select it. The second group gets to pick a tax, government fee, or other income in the same amount to reduce. Keep going until no more ideas from the first group, then change roles. Then change the order, taxes first followed by spending.

    Don’t like the boat tax, eliminate it. A few million dollars? Second group your turn. What is that you say, cut 30 State legislative staffers? Done. Next.

    Work like a charm.

  96. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    The American Dream < Vigoda

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Def not what I want. This is full blown corruption. I get what you are saying and realize why you rather have small govt. It lessens the chances of this happening.

    leftwing says:
    June 11, 2015 at 3:03 pm
    “Can’t make this shit up!! It really is sickening. This happens in a state that is complaining it is broke?”

    Really punkin? This is what you want. Rules in place that you can change to manipulate people’s behavior. Put something on the books, then alter/waive/increase it to get your desired outcome.

    Got your panties all twisted that the outcome targeted here isn’t the one you personally feel is correct? Yeah, better be careful. Once the wall is breached there is a slippery slope where things don’t always go your way.

    Above is Exhibit 32 why we should go back to the original model of part time citizen-legislators. The more you can shutdown State spending the fewer areas for monkey business.

  98. Banco Popular Trust Preferred Shares says:

    Q to board: I see a foreclosure auction scheduled for a house in my town on 6/22……what does this mean versus the dozens of others that are just lis pendens?

  99. leftwing says:

    “Q to board: I see a foreclosure auction scheduled for a house in my town on 6/22……what does this mean versus the dozens of others that are just lis pendens?”

    Whatsa matta you?

    A specific real estate question on the NJ healthcare, college tuition, pension, wage inequality, bond@ge (tip of the hat to JJ), and (former) nompound blog?

    Thinking 30yr is your man……

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [85] ccb

    “Com — yes, I see. You and everyone who thinks exactly like you want your own blog so you can sit around in a big circle jerk.”

    Yes. Our own little version of DailyKos

  101. leftwing says:

    LOL. You give too much credit. I was going to say the echo chamber of the NYT.

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [104] left wing

    Speaking of nompounds, apparently bomb shelters are becoming a must have item in Ukraine.

  103. leftwing says:

    you know, around the time I disappeared a while back there was actually an old missile silo for sale that someone converted into an underground ‘quint-plex’. I may have posted the listing. Would be a hoot to see if and what it sold for….

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume, Future uber driver says:

    [98] leftwing

    Boats should be treated like cars as they must be registered. You pay tax Based on where you live. So the tax ought be collected when it’s registered. And pass insurance regs that don’t allow buyers to insure unless registered.

  105. Grim says:

    That’s why I register my yachts in Liberia.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Fed kept the engine from stalling. Getting it to speed again will be harder

    The U.S. economy has, by and large, recovered from the financial crisis of 2008–09. The Federal Reserve’s strate-gy of keeping interest rates exception-ally low led to rebounds in the stock market, housing prices and consumer demand, which in turn chipped away at unemployment. The difficulty now is getting the economy to grow again while the Fed returns interest rates to normal.

    The Fed’s challenge is made more complex by the negative effects of both short- and long-term interest rates being so low, which have induced investors and lenders to take additional risks. The most obvi-ous form of such risk taking is buying longer-term securities. Since long-term bonds pay higher inter-est rates than Treasury bills or money-market funds, investors have been tempted to buy them. When the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds rises from about 2.2% now to a more traditional yield of about 5%, the current buyers of long-term bonds will experience a substantial loss should they try to sell them before maturity. Similar dynamics–and their potentially hazardous consequences–are at play in the stock market and real estate.

    The low-interest-rate environment com-bined with the recent changes in government bank regulations has created a problem that I call a liquidity mismatch. Low interest rates have led to an enormous increase in the issuance of corporate bonds. Many of these bonds have been bought by traditional mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. The individuals who have invested in those funds believe–rightly–that they have complete liquidity, that they can demand cash for their investments on a day’s notice. To meet that call for cash, the mutual funds must sell the bonds they hold.

    It is not clear, however, who will buy those bonds. The traditional buyers in such stress situa-tions have been commercial banks. But those banks have been discouraged from playing that role by the Dodd-Frank banking legislation and by the capital requirements that raise the cost of holding bonds for banks. The result of this liquidity mismatch could be very sharp declines in bond prices when inves-tors begin to sell.

    The increased risk taking created by the Fed’s policy of exceptionally low interest rates involves lenders as well as investors. To maintain their prof-its, banks and other lenders are extending credit to high-risk borrowers, including those who already owe substantial amounts of debt. And the terms of recent bank loans are more lenient, with so-called covenant-lite loans imposing fewer requirements on borrowers and therefore providing less protec-tion to the lenders.

    For its part, the federal reserve intends to keep interest rates exceptionally low. The Fed acknowledges that the short-term federal-funds rate should eventually rise to about 4% from the near-zero level it is at today. But the Open Market Committee, which sets Fed policy, is predicting that it will keep that rate at less than the rate of inflation through 2016. Even by the end of 2017, the federal-funds rate will exceed inflation by only about 1%. This rate is too low for an economy that is already so close to full employment.

    The Fed is pursuing its strategy of very low in-terest rates for two reasons. First, it would like to increase demand in order to reduce the current low unemployment rate even more. While there is no doubt that there are people who would like to work full time but cannot find a job, the Fed’s goal of an unemployment rate below 5% is unsustainable and will lead to more rapidly rising inflation. Second, the Fed fears that the financial markets will react to rising short-term rates by pushing up longer-term rates, widening credit spreads and reducing equity values. That in turn could destabilize the economy.

    The danger, though, is that by waiting, the Fed will be forced by the arrival of higher inflation rates to raise the federal-funds rate more rapidly than it and the financial markets now anticipate, causing greater instability in bond and equity markets with adverse effects on the real economy.

    The Fed’s hope to return interest rates to tradi-tional levels without destabilizing the economy is an understandable goal, but it may not be an achievable one. The Fed used the unconventional monetary policy of exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period of time to cure a very deep recession. It succeeded in doing that, but the coun-try may have to pay a price for this extreme policy. Only time will tell.

    Feldstein, the George F. Baker Professor of Economics at Harvard University, was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Reagan Administration

    http://time.com/3908638/will-this-be-americas-next-economic-crisis/

  107. leftwing says:

    “That’s why I register my yachts in Liberia.”

    Just make sure that if the CG is trailing you that you keep the same flag. Like lying to a federal official, if you fly a different flag on your vessel you effectively declare it under no flag and give the CG the right to board. Don’t ask.

  108. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If nobody here cares about this trade agreement travesty, I guess I can assume that nobody cares, period.

  109. leftwing says:

    Getting moderated left and right.

    Want to be mad at the Feds? CBS News, Resveratrol. Google.

    It’s only your cash…..

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What determines if a town has a paid fire dept as opposed to volunteer?

  111. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    President Obama’s trade agenda survived a bad scare in the House on Thursday when the GOP rule governing debate for the package narrowly survived a 217-212 vote.

    Thirty-four Republicans voted against the rule, while eight Democrats backed it.
    A handful of pro-trade Democrats withheld their votes, watching the tally closely from the floor. Then, when it was apparent Republicans would not be able to pass the typically partisan measure on its own, they threw their votes in favor all at once.
    The tight vote foreshadows the challenge GOP leaders will face Friday, when the House votes on two critical pieces of Obama’s trade agenda: fast-track authority and a separate bill offering help to workers displaced by trade.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/244745-trade-vote-survives-scare-in-rule-vote

  112. Juice Box says:

    #11 and #91 – Grim the politicians giveth and take it away. Just like your new hobby. I do wish you well however if you are too sucessfully with your hooch you can bet it will be taken away.

    Best bet for you is to go the UBER route and start selling your hooch underground, on demand delivery and no pesky taxes. Heck I’ll even kick in seed for your App. Is Hooch Mobile trademarked?

  113. Grim, can you get me a meeting with Charles Taylor?

    “That’s why I register my yachts in Liberia.”

  114. dfens (116)-

    Reverse passing.

    “‘Black’ NAACP leader outed as white woman”

  115. Ocean residences & management, Inc. is the most important unbiased provider to hire your vacation.

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