From HousingWire:
Fitch: U.S. housing demand pendulum swinging back to city centers
Amid stabilizing U.S. home price growth lies a demographic shift that is underway across much of the country, according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly U.S. RMBS Sustainable Home Price Report.
Significant demand is returning to city centers following decades of suburban and exurban growth. Since 2000, home prices have grown 50% faster in urban centers than in the broader MSA areas, with population growth trends beginning to favor city centers as well.
‘This demand shift implies that city centers will continue to see growth even where regional prices have been stagnant, such as Atlanta or Chicago,” said Fitch Director Stefan Hilts.
…
This trend is clear in nearly every city analyzed, but seems to be particularly strong amongst growing mid-sized markets, including Nashville, Denver, Portland, and Cincinnati. With increased preference for urban living, one implication going forward is ‘the likelihood for home ownership rates to remain persistently low and declining as more potential buyers opt to live in cities where rentals dominate,’ said Hilts.With continued upward economic pressure and the pace of price growth slowing in many cities, Fitch’s model shows declines in overvaluation for a number of cities across the country.
Good morning!
Saw photos of Tianjin explosion. Reminded me of Hiroshima
The lede doesn’t bode well for suburbs in or adjacent to LMI areas
@chrislhayes: Pretty great first line in this @mtaibbi piece
Inside the GOP Clown Car
On the campaign trail in Iowa, Donald Trump’s antics have forced the other candidates to get crazy or go home
August 12, 2015
The thing is, when you actually think about it, it’s not funny. Given what’s at stake, it’s more like the opposite, like the first sign of the collapse of the United States as a global superpower. Twenty years from now, when we’re all living like prehistory hominids and hunting rats with sticks, we’ll probably look back at this moment as the beginning of the end.
In the meantime, though, the race for the Republican Party presidential nomination sure seems funny. The event known around the world as hashtagGOPClownCar is improbable, colossal, spectacular and shocking; epic, monumental, heinous and disgusting. It’s like watching 17 platypuses try to mount the queen of England. You can’t tear your eyes away from it.
3 – exactly why I posted
4 – if you think the clown car is filled only elephants you are blind.
2 – not even close
Vernon schools chief to make pitch for school closure
Posted: Aug 10, 2015 10:43 PM EDT
Updated: Aug 11, 2015 11:02 AM EDT
http://www.njherald.com/story/29755212/vernon-schools-chief-to-make-pitch-for-school-closure
By ERIC OBERNAUER
eobernauer@njherald.com
VERNON — With enrollment in the district having declined more than 40 percent — from 5,505 to less than 3,300 — since 2002, the Vernon Township Board of Education could soon be faced with with deciding whether to keep all six district schools open or begin planning for the closure of a school.
The issue, which was discussed by interim Superintendent Arthur DiBenedetto at the board’s July 9 meeting, will be spelled out by him in a public presentation Thursday at Lounsberry Hollow Middle School, where he will detail his reasons for recommending that a school be closed. The meeting will begin at 7 p.m.
“Despite the fact that enrollment has declined for 13 years in a row at an average rate of 161 kids a year, the budget has gone up 12 of those years,” DiBenedetto said. “It’s ridiculous, and (although) I’m here as an interim, I can’t ignore it. It’s time to move.”
DiBenedetto indicated he will propose that the Cedar Mountain Primary School, which houses grades 2-4, be considered for closure starting in September 2016. Even if the proposal is accepted by the board, the recommendation — some of whose details were posted to the school district website on Friday — would have no impact on planning currently underway for the start of school in September.
But, he said, “the time for a decision is this school year, and I would be remiss in doing my duties if I didn’t address it.”
According to the state Department of Education’s school performance reports, Cedar Mountain — with an enrollment of 357 students — had the smallest enrollment of all six district schools in 2013-14, the most recent school year for which official enrollment figures were available from the state.
With 28 classrooms, the school also has the smallest capacity of all six district schools, according to DiBenedetto.
An additional consideration, he said, is that Cedar Mountain and Glen Meadow Middle schools both were built with convertibility in mind, meaning either could be repurposed fairly easily for other uses.
The other schools in the district are the Walnut Ridge Primary School, Rolling Hills Primary School, Lounsberry Hollow Middle School and Vernon Township High School.
Across Sussex County, nearly all school districts have seen their enrollments continue to drop following the housing implosion that began in 2007.
In Vernon, however, the decline has been underway for much longer than that, and board member John McGowan said Monday that “the time is long overdue for us to examine this critical issue.”
As far back as January 2012, McGowan gave a detailed public presentation with data from demographic studies that projected the district’s enrollment would fall from its then-total of 3,793 students to 3,414 by 2016-17.
But the trend has been even more dramatic than that, with the district’s 2015-16 budget estimating an enrollment of 3,259 for the coming school year. Sparta, also a K-12 district, is projecting an enrollment of 3,286 for the coming year.
Based on those numbers, Sparta — for the first time in years — would eclipse Vernon as the largest school district in Sussex County while having one fewer school — five — as compared to the six in Vernon.
“Right now, they (Sparta) have fewer schools than us and dramatically fewer teachers,” McGowan said.
At the time of his January 2012 presentation, McGowan avoided recommending the closure of a specific school but had urged his colleagues on the board to begin thinking long and hard about their next steps. The board, at the time, took no further action.
“Not only did the Board of Education and administration during that period not address the issue, but we have continued to fail to address it, and the community has not been made completely aware of our decline in enrollment,” he said.
But, he said, “This is a cultural issue, and I think with this board, both the newer and older members have finally reached the conclusion that this is not a situation that is going to turn around and go the other way in the foreseeable future.”
8 – Symptom of the trend noted in the lead article?
9 – don’t discount the impact of gentrification pushing lower income residents out of the inner rings.
From the Star Ledger:
Which N.J. county has the highest rate of income inequality?
Counties in northeastern New Jersey have some of the highest rates of income disparity amongst residents in the state, according to a recent NJ Advance Media analysis of U.S. Census data.
Overall, the analysis found that income inequality is growing at a rapid pace across New Jersey. But, the income gap is dependent upon where in the state you are.
The above ranking is based on the Census’s GINI coefficient, which measures income distribution on a scale from zero to one. Zero would mean that income is distributed completely evenly across the population.
Essex County, which has the highest GINI coefficient of any county in the state, ranks 28th highest nationally. Click through the gallery above to see where your county falls in terms of income inequality.
And this one from yesterday:
https://plot.ly/~sstirling/597/nj-household-income-by-percent-of-population-1990-to-2013/
Check the second graph, most interesting. Look at the growth at the high end.
Between 2007 and 2013
Increase of 71,842 households earning 200K or more
Increase of 33,649 households earning 150-200k
Increase of 1230 households earning 100-150k
#11..I thought that was called diversity?
Where did the people making $75k go? Did they get a raise or leave?
https://plot.ly/622/~sstirling/
15 – Clot’s barbell effect….in one chart.
14 – what middle class – you are either rich or poor
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2015/08/these_4_charts_show_the_rapid_growth_of_income_inequality_in_nj.html#incart_river
New Jersey’s middle class is not yet an endangered species, but data shows the Great Recession expedited its decline, catapulting the Garden State to the unenviable position of being one of the worst examples of income inequality in the nation.
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that New Jersey’s middle class has been on the decline for several decades, pushing more of its residents to the extremes on either side
Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, California
So the most expensive college in USA is Harvey Mudd, isnt that the guy from Star Trek who clones his wife and gets stuck on a planet with several of his hen pecking wives
If you’re on a budget then Harvey Mudd is not for you. Sorry. On the other hand, if you have a cool $64,527 a year to spare and want to head to a top-ranking college with a good reputation, then pack your bags and be prepared to enter the field of science, mathematics or engineering. Harvey Mudd excels at all three, with a specific mission of teaching “science with a conscience”. That is, humanities and the social sciences are impressed upon every student, so they better understand the impact of their work on society. Tuition and fees come in at $48,694 per year, while another $15,833 is needed for board.
If there were video footage of Chernobyl, I think that might be a closer comp…..
Grim says:
August 13, 2015 at 7:56 am
2 – not even close
http://breaking911.com/viral-video-congresswoman-appears-to-pick-nose-eat-booger-on-live-tv/
Grim [17];
14 – what middle class – you are either rich or poor
There are two leisure classes in America, not one.
19-
The yearly tuition at Harvey Mudd isn’t an outlier. Forbes recently came out with their list of top 200 colleges. Almost every single one, had a yearly tuition of around $60,0000.
China devalues to boost exports and then has a massive explosion at a major port it exports from. Hmmmm…
Saw photos of Tianjin explosion. Reminded me of Hiroshima
#19 NYU is $47,750 + $17,500 for $65,000+
[23] Only very rich protestants pay retail for education.
The yearly tuition at Harvey Mudd isn’t an outlier. Forbes recently came out with their list of top 200 colleges. Almost every single one, had a yearly tuition of around $60,0000.
With the cost of living in down there, I have quoted the sticker price to parents in more of the $75K area…….it is at least 70
1987 Condo says:
August 13, 2015 at 10:37 am
#19 NYU is $47,750 + $17,500 for $65,000+
[19] JJ
One of my former sitters (daughter of some friends of ours) went to Harvey Mudd for engineering. She got offered a job at Boeing prior to graduation and is living large on the West Coast.
NYU gives piss aid….pay or go away is the rule there…
[7] grim
Wasn’t suggesting equivalence, just visual comparison. A lot full of charred cars and buildings with the windows all blown out, all covered in a grey char, did look like a nuke blast photo from Hiroshima, IMHO.
Are you Ben Afflack?
Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:
August 13, 2015 at 12:03 pm
[19] JJ
One of my former sitters (daughter of some friends of ours) went to Harvey Mudd for engineering. She got offered a job at Boeing prior to graduation and is living large on the West Coast
[31] JJ
Yes. Yes, I am.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-expensive-rental-homes-in-america-2015-8?r=UK&IR=T
NJ made the list with!!
What NJ cities are undergoing “gentrification”?
Hoboken, Jersey City, Morristown, Asbury Park
I might not be inclined to include places like Edgewater or Secaucus – since that, to me, feels more like new development (industrial reuse) than gentrification.
Depending, you might include Weehawken, Union City, WNY, North Bergen.
@SenSanders:
If we could bail out Wall Street, we can make sure that every American can go to college without going into debt.
Hoboken is a college town. It represents nothing like the real Hoboken of the past. It’s nothing more than a sales pitch. It’s a tourist attraction.
Jersey City. Hoboken, Asbury Park,Union City. Sounds like the list of New Jersey Supreme’s Abbott cities finest. Hmmm. Undergoing gentrification. Hmmmm.
So Why the f are we paying billions of dollars of our tax money to support these populations? Can anybody provide me numbers like avg income of those cities vs other non-Abbotts.
Abbott districting is the primary reason property taxes are so high in this state. And our wannabe governor, Mr. Big Mouth, is too chicken to attack this directly.
And the legislators in Trenton are so tied into this, that they vetoed the nomination of a Gay Lawyer to the Supremes, because, well, he didn’t fit their agenda.
The Guv could have socked it to them on that one. Once again, he kept his mouth shut. Sometimes he is Ralph Kramden, sometimes not. Looks like him all the time, though.
We do it is called community college.
anon (the good one) says:
August 13, 2015 at 1:32 pm
@SenSanders:
If we could bail out Wall Street, we can make sure that every American can go to college without going into debt.
I got two masters degrees without going into debt. I’m nothing special, I lived at home and worked days, nights, weekends, between classes. At one point I had two jobs. I almost always worked 40 hours a week. For the masters degrees, it was a matter of night and weekend classes over an extended period.
[41] grim
Same with my two law degrees.
Got my first masters (MS) 4 years after my undergrad, and the second one (MBA) 6 years after that (two year hiatus on the second).
The other benefit of stretching is reducing the annual cash outlay.
Got my Masters at the school of hard knocks. It was tough. Professors wanted to f*ck me, fellow students steal my work and loan officers always wanting a payment, IN FULL ON TIME. Whew! Going for my PHD now (same school). :). I figure 2-3 years (took another hard hit recently).
Xoelpa 39 – We know folks in Hoboken. Their home assessed at over $1M carries a $17k tax bill. In the Ridge, that kind of assessment would result in a tax bill of over $30k.
Our public schools in GR have class sizes of about 25. In Hoboken they’ve got the public schools tracking by ability in elementary school (although apparently the new Superintendent is going to change that)…..the well to do kids in honors classes have a class size of about 12. Or their parents have opted to send them to the free Hoboken Charter School instead of sending them to school with the little people.
Oh yeah, and they get free PreK too.
Hoboken really is a tale of two cities. The newcomer, yuppie or reformers (if you follow local politics) and the BnR’s (Old Guard)/HHA residents/low-income housing folks.
The city of Hoboken is getting very close to the peak influx of young families with money. The very large housing project on the Western edge of town will always be present and these apartments will continue to be the main-stay voting base that supports the fraud, graft and illicit activity in the town. Sprinkle in just enough subsidized housing in each ward that will always “vote by mail” for their favorite Old Guard council person (who incidentally also have the most $40 per day campaign workers) and you find yourself in a situation that will be very difficult to change. And any change is only temporary as reform needs to fend off the OG every election cycle.
The list of unsavory characters in the Hoboken politico scene is so long that even other Hudson county folks blush at their brazzen theft of any public monies.
Former Mayor Russo, Former Mayor Cammarano, Michelle “5 bucks a two Russo”, the $1 million in missing quarters from parking meters that were found”down the shore”, the Hoboken BOE bloat, the Hoboken Housing Authority theft/crime/assault/drug dealing, Vote-By-Mail fraud and outright Vote buying, etc, and all this is only a summary of the last 10 years.
Hoboken can be fun. The shine is off the apple for me. Family and will flee for parts West in the spring.
Gator – Hoboken property tax assessments are nowhere near reality. 4 story brown-stones on Bloofield St. paying $4500 per year while a 5 year old stick-built condo at the Light Rail stop pays $12000 per year on 1400sqft.
Don’t envy the Hoboken tax situation. And as a parent with a kid in the schools, do not envy the schools either. The younger grades are OK – but really nothing that is much above average.
The HS, aside from spending over $25k per student is simply a dangerous place for most kids.
> Their home assessed at over $1M carries a $17k tax bill. In the Ridge, that kind of assessment would result in a tax bill of over $30k.
GR schools are still a better deal, and your 1M house is a lot nicer too.
I didn’t know the duck from the commercials had a name!
JJ says:
August 13, 2015 at 12:14 pm
Are you Ben Afflack?
Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:
August 13, 2015 at 12:03 pm
[19] JJ
One of my former sitters (daughter of some friends of ours) went to Harvey Mudd for engineering. She got offered a job at Boeing prior to graduation and is living large on the West Coast
I was lucky enough to get a low level job in a bank that had tuition reimbursement when I was younger. I went to school nights while working full time. Still had to pay a large percentage of the cost out of pocket. Never went into debt to pay for college.
anon (the good one) says:
August 13, 2015 at 1:32 pm
@SenSanders:
If we could bail out Wall Street, we can make sure that every American can go to college without going into debt.
I will say, it’s best to do it before you have kids.
#20, HAHA, good one!!! So true.
Fat Man gave life time appointment to a NJ Supreme Court Judge who was responsible for the property tax mess we’re in right now. Shortly thereafter, they dropped an important 2A case.
Some political back dealing obviously took place were we were all screwed over.
xolepa says:
August 13, 2015 at 1:35 pm
Jersey City. Hoboken, Asbury Park,Union City. Sounds like the list of New Jersey Supreme’s Abbott cities finest. Hmmm. Undergoing gentrification. Hmmmm.
So Why the f are we paying billions of dollars of our tax money to support these populations? Can anybody provide me numbers like avg income of those cities vs other non-Abbotts.
Abbott districting is the primary reason property taxes are so high in this state. And our wannabe governor, Mr. Big Mouth, is too chicken to attack this directly.
And the legislators in Trenton are so tied into this, that they vetoed the nomination of a Gay Lawyer to the Supremes, because, well, he didn’t fit their agenda.
The Guv could have socked it to them on that one. Once again, he kept his mouth shut. Sometimes he is Ralph Kramden, sometimes not. Looks like him all the time, though.
@BernieSanders:
We are going to make public colleges tuition-free and substantially reduce student loan debt in America!
You can make public schools substantially less expensive, but you are going to need to give up on these beautiful expansive campuses, lush lawns, fancy artwork, conference facilities, multi-million dollar athletics and stadiums. Certainly not paying coaches what they get paid today (looking at you RU, $5.3 million in coach salaries in 2014?).
Free school needs to be based on the basics, nothing fancy, nothing elaborate, nothing expensive. No on-campus housing, you need to take all public schools back to a baseline level to eliminate out of staters and eliminate the need to live on-site. Focus on the academics only, no frills. Summer classes don’t need AC.
Free schools need to look like the community colleges of 20 years ago. Not like schools today, where administrators are building kingdoms.
Schools need to look more like this (Harvard, 1962):
http://poetsandquants.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Screen-Shot-2013-11-26-at-11.34.40-AM.png
Than this (everywhere, 2015):
https://emergencypedia.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/lecture-room.jpg
I attended a game in the mid 80’s at Giants Stadium as part of a day trip from my parish We went to see the Jets where we saw all sorts of indecent behavior, culminating with seeing one Jet fan piss himself and vomit at the same time. As my pastor muttered under his breath that this place was a hell on Earth, a nearby fan heard him and said, “Guess you haven’t seen a game at Shea then.”
Move to Queens, this home pays $750 bucks a year
http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/pmf,pf_pt/79728377_zpid/40.603526,-73.734527,40.586809,-73.771134_rect/14_zm/?view=map
Wily Millenial says:
August 13, 2015 at 2:52 pm
> Their home assessed at over $1M carries a $17k tax bill. In the Ridge, that kind of assessment would result in a tax bill of over $30k.
The hobokens and jersey cities might get abbott money but the schools still aren’t worth sending your kids to. So you might get a little break on taxes but for 17k that person is really getting no services and the 12k on a new condo person is really getting the shaft. Simply put the tax money is spent on god knows what but you don’t get any services.
58 no dice, in queens I’d A have to live in Queens and B pay over 16k in deblasio income tax.
Nom [28];
You know better than that. Your neighbor’s daughter was a hot ticket from a blue chip company because she was a female engineer (first cousin to the unicorn). Jersey girl, souther college, West coast locale — lots of diversity boxes to be checked there. I doubt spending 3x Rutgers costs on her college even jiggled the needle on the outcome.
Troll [Free Tution!];
Another leftist handout, to the de facto leftist think tanks of America. Can’t you people at least be original?
I know maths is hard, but $20,000/yr for each of 3.3 million HS grads is $66 Billion dollars. What do you say we fund it by cutting Obamacare, mmm-kay?
Con’t [62];
And before you propose to “Soak the Rich!” (you know you were thinking it); How many kids not related to you are you willing to commit to putting through college?
Queens 1 bedroom apartment rents now topping $3,000 month.
Education bubble..so what do we do now? Barn door open, horse gone. Sure, smart folks here were prudent but millions make stupid plays and that # keep growing each day. Govt. backs Corinthian college types to openly swindle kids. Online degrees by legitimate universities to any moron willing to pay up. Used to be that liberal arts had path in newspapers, magazines, publishing and media. Those jobs are basically gone for good due to technology. Millions with 60-80k even 100k plus in debt and minimal job prospects. I don’t recall these conversations prior to recession. It was go to college, get a degree..now, Wtf you have English degree and 90k owed..f-you. Economy can no longer support these people. Sad really. I got BA 20 years ago when still it meant something and I turned my experience into a career. Today, nada..
62 – Who cares about the 66 billion. What do we do with the trillion in student loans outstanding? Surely they shouldn’t need to pay any longer.
62
How about we cut it out of the Lockheed Martin budget?
Juris Pen!s Flushis:
A jilted Japanese man seeking revenge on his two-timing wife is accused of cutting her lover’s pen!s off with garden shears and then flushing it down the toilet, police said.
Ikki Kotsugai, 24, was arrested Thursday after he allegedly barged into his victim’s law office in Tokyo’s Minato Ward at around 7:40 a.m., punching the 42-year-old in the face several times, AFP reported.
The Tokyo graduate student at a university in Nakano Ward then ripped the unnamed man’s pants off while he was barely conscious and snipped off his gen!tals, a Tokyo police spokesman told the international news agency.
He allegedly admitted to the bizarre attack, telling police: “I cut off his gen!tals and flushed them down a toilet in the law office,” according to local reports.
Kotsugai is a former boxer at the university, public broadcaster NHK reported. He has been charged with inflicting bodily harm.
The unnamed victim worked with Kotsugai’s wife, who was reportedly present during her raging husband’s rampage.
I spent way too long living in Queens, you get what you pay for in terms of services. One time my hot water was shut off for 4 days because the guy across the street hadn’t paid his gas bill, and some jerk was parked on top of the valve so they couldn’t fix the mistake. Street parking is terrible and ruins your car. Garbage everywhere, even on nice streets. No one picks up after dogs. 2 AM mafia DSNY schedules. 311 is a joke. Parks are terrible, roads are terrible. Every block has a traffic problem. Homeless people break into your garage to get the cans from your recycling. Brooklyn is like two hours away some days.
Even the nice parts are dumpy on sort of a fundamental unshakeable level. And the income tax starts to catch up. Definitely a better place to park your RE $ than here, or at least it was a few years ago. Some of the elementary schools are… ok.
Why not?
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2546777-jared-lorenzen-makes-his-pitch-to-qb-the-jets-after-geno-incident
The maxim of “you get what you pay for” is correct at times, and not correct at other times.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/nyregion/after-2-killers-fled-new-york-prisoners-say-beatings-were-next.html?_r=2&referrer=
re#46 – “The shine is off the apple for me.”
Join us in Monmouth, more for your money and no sun glare going in our out on 78 or & 80. You will thank me later…..
re # 69 – “Queens” My mom is a widow. She met up with her beau from 50++ years ago. Hard core Queens guy loves the low property taxes and being near his kids in Long Island, guy can barely make it to Jersey for some hand holding without complaining. Not much changes….
Re: talking point, the trillion Is private debt,.and laws need to be changed to burden everyone.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/politics/ben-carson-aborted-fetuses-research/index.html
Another one bites the dust
Pretty soon only Trump will be left standing
I actually think the city is an underrated place to be old, if you can both afford and tolerate it.