Go ahead, hike, I dare you.

From Reuters:

For hot New York property market, a Fed move won’t change much

Not even a rate hike from the Federal Reserve is expected to cool off the hot New York commercial real estate market, where demand remains high, industry executives say.

While there aren’t rumblings of an asset bubble in Manhattan property, prices are high, and some valuation metrics are at or near record peaks with sales activity at a record pace.

“I’ve never seen more capital come into this market in 35 years of doing this,” said Peter Hauspurg, chairman and chief executive of Eastern Consolidated, a New York real estate investment service firm.

“There’s been a feeling around the last three or four years that this has become almost monopoly money. We’re awash in cash, the banks can’t lend out enough,” Hauspurg said.

The Fed is due to announce a decision on Thursday afternoon to either end or extend seven years of near-zero interest rates, potentially relieving financial markets of months of uncertainty as investors have been trying to predict the timing of a hike.

Some may see a cautionary flag in the amount of money available to borrow, abetted in part by the Fed’s historically low interest rates. But higher rates won’t necessarily dent commercial real estate and experts say lenders are more disciplined now than the last cycle, when a housing bubble built on easy money burst in 2008 and spawned the Great Recession.

The cash flow has been boosted by more sources of funds – private equity investors, increased securitization, and foreign investment, which rose to more than 40 percent of deals in the first six months of the year, more than double the historical rate.

At the same time, a limited number of properties for sale, particularly larger sites, has acted as a brake on transactions and helped to push up valuations, said Jon Caplan, vice chairman of JLL Capital Markets based in New York.

“We might be at higher numbers if there were more product available,” said Caplan, referring to sales volume.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Development, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

101 Responses to Go ahead, hike, I dare you.

  1. grim says:

    While we’re on the topic of commercial, from JOC:

    E-commerce heating up NY-NJ industrial real estate market

    U.S. Northeast consumers’ growing appetite for e-commerce is cooking up a “red hot” industrial real estate market around the Port of New York and New Jersey — a trend great for developers and pricey for shippers, the head of an industrial real estate trade association said Wednesday.

    The rise of e-commerce forces shippers to carry more inventory in order to meet consumers’ expectation the products they order will be available and arrive quickly. That helped drive leasing velocity — the rate at which space is leased — in the second quarter of 2015 up 22 percent from the first quarter, said Michael G. McGuinness, CEO of NAIOP New Jersey, which represents owners, developers, and asset managers of industrial real estate.

    There has been 11.2 million square feet of industrial real estate developed in New Jersey in the last four years, with 9.4 million taking place since the start of 2013. Another 3 million square feet is currently under construction.

    “Still, brokers and tenants are telling us you can’t build fast enough,” McGuinness said at a press conference in which the port released a report that found it created $53.5 billion in business income for the region.

    In addition to e-commerce, third-party logistics providers and food and beverage distributors are fueling the increased space demand that has seen rents steadily rise and led to “unprecedented” development in submarkets such as east of Interstate 287, South Jersey, and northern Burlington county, which is popular with big box logistics users, McGuinness said.

  2. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    Chifi, this must be lighting up your newsfeed (and giving Otto and anon absolute paroxysms of rage):

    “I do not believe in perfect equality. I agree with those who contend that the U.S. was founded on a commitment to equality of opportunity rather than equality of results. Indeed, for opportunity to be meaningful, one would expect to see some inequality of results. Natural endowments are never distributed equally, but whether a society permits its members to do the most with them is the test of its social character, and for a democracy, a test of its legitimacy.”

    If a dean at Berkeley said this, he’d be publicly beheaded

  3. HeHateMe says:

    I hope for a rate hike today. Shake it up baby

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 11,000 to 264,000 in the seven days ended Sept. 12. The latest report on initial claims shows the domestic economy remains resilient in face of a weaker global outlook. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast initial claims to remain steady at 275,000. This is the lowest level of claims since mid-July. That reading of 255,000 in the week ended July 18 was the lowest level of claims since September 1974. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, edged down by 3,250 to a seasonally adjusted 275,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

  5. Juice Box says:

    Rate hike? So the feds going to go from an inflation Creator to an inflation fighter now?

  6. Libturd in Union says:

    Lefty,

    How’d you do?

  7. Ragnar says:

    It’s embarrassing and demeaning that in a self-described free country, people must breathlessly await the announcements of a group of second-rate central planners to find out what interest rates are decreed to be.

  8. Essex says:

    8. It’s just a benchmark, your rates may vary……..(hahahahah)

  9. Juice Box says:

    Bernake dropped the FFR ten times in 14 months, we can expect the opposite over a longer duration.

    First increase willbe De minimis simply so they can spike the ball, all other raises will be debated until the cows come home sometime after the next decade.

    Histhory Rhymes Folks and we are Japanese.

    Japan has been at ZIRP for a long time. Let’s compare charts.

    http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/japan-interest-rate.png?s=bojdtr&v=201509151354h&d1=19150101&d2=20151231&url2=/united-states/interest-rate

  10. D-FENS says:

    What’s your wild guess as to what they’d be without them?

    Ragnar says:
    September 17, 2015 at 9:14 am
    It’s embarrassing and demeaning that in a self-described free country, people must breathlessly await the announcements of a group of second-rate central planners to find out what interest rates are decreed to be.

  11. D-FENS says:

    10 – I want a ride in your time machine.

  12. Ragnar says:

    D-Fens,
    Assuming a non-central bank run system, with free money, free banking, steady monetary purchasing power, and a free economy, short rates would probably be 1-2%, longer rates probably 4-5%, driven by human time preference and liquidity needs.

  13. Juice Box says:

    re: #12 – Here you go…First Stop 1980s.

    http://tinyurl.com/p6nnajv

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    Carly Fiorina was very impressive. Go ahead, tell me about her so-called failed acquisition while CEO, etc. The bottom line is she was versed, confident and most of her responses sounded epic, especially the one regarding planned parenthood and dealing with Putin. I like Rubio as well and I think Kasich has a shot.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just what I expected, the rest of America to follow the opinions of the political press. What planet are these people on? She was a joke, she is a joke, and I’ll leave the country if she becomes president. She is the definition of a loser.

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 17, 2015 at 10:27 am
    Carly Fiorina was very impressive. Go ahead, tell me about her so-called failed acquisition while CEO, etc. The bottom line is she was versed, confident and most of her responses sounded epic, especially the one regarding planned parenthood and dealing with Putin. I like Rubio as well and I think Kasich has a shot.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    troll.

  17. Libturd in Union says:

    What was with the big AF1 airplane in the background? I watched three minutes of the debate and turned it off when I heard someone talking about Russia as if we were still in the Cold War. The politics of fear is still strong with the red team. I can’t wait for blue debates where much of the same will likely occur.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Pat, you’re a sh1t stirrer.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fast Eddie, you would really be okay with her running this country after her track record managing companies? She cost how many people their jobs and you expect her to create jobs?

  20. nwnj4Trump says:

    Kasich is a credible candidate but he hasn’t sold out his foreign policy position so there will be a concerted effort to diminish him within the primary field as it dwindles. Fiorina is a failed leader, I’m not sure how she will overcome that.

  21. 50 basis points would be classy.

    I hope for a rate hike today. Shake it up baby

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    Fiorina is a failed leader, I’m not sure how she will overcome that.

    Then put Rubio in the slot.

  23. Juice Box says:

    re: # 21 – ” I’m not sure how she will overcome that.”

    They say she won without cracking a smile.

    Gonna be a rough 4 years with that broad on the trigger.

  24. Fiorina drove her stepdaughter to drugs.

  25. D-FENS says:

    Trump! Trump! Trump!

  26. Libturd in Union says:

    So what did Hilary due? I mean, besides going along with the majority on every decision she made as NY Senator.

  27. joyce says:

    A judge says a New York village named Liberty must stand trial for arresting a man who wrote curse words on a speeding ticket.
    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/New-York-Village-Liberty-Trial-Arrest-Driver-Who-Wrote-Curse-Words-on-Speeding-Ticket-327769501.html

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Hilary and Carly are not realistic options. They both are garbage and are only being given a chance because they both are females. A man with their track record would never be given the time of day.

    Libturd in Union says:
    September 17, 2015 at 11:22 am
    So what did Hilary due? I mean, besides going along with the majority on every decision she made as NY Senator.

  29. D-FENS says:

    Damn pumps. That’s harsh.

  30. HeHateMe says:

    wow she is a divorced women who never had kids who remarried a divorced guy and one step daughter after drugs and alcohol died at 35. Not Mom of the Year material

  31. Libturd in Union says:

    I thought family issues was personal and shouldn’t count. At least that’s what the Dems have been saying since cigargate.

  32. Libturd in Union says:

    Of course, it’s ok to make fun of CC’s eating disorder.

  33. Ragnar says:

    The more problems I see in the other candidates, the better Fiorina looks in comparison. But I wouldn’t hire her to be CEO of a company.
    Trump just keeps repeating the same vague & empty promises.
    Carson seems like a nice guy, but before being president you have to have some experience managing people and organizations. And too religious.
    Jeb Bush: “it’s my turn” Not.
    Walker & Cruz : both too religious, both have difficulty converting their principles into something many people will buy into.
    Kasich: caretaker of the welfare state
    Rand Paul: too cranky
    Christie: probably just a stalking horse for Jeb Bush, running is just an interview for his next no-show job.

  34. Ragnar says:

    South Park took direct aim at the “check your privilege” movement
    http://southpark.cc.com/full-episodes/s19e01-stunning-and-brave

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Ragnar,

    Rubio? :)

  36. homeboken says:

    This blog’s vernacular is once again ahead of the curve – The check your privelege joke has been going on here for weeks and SP highlighted (wonderfully last night) and anyone that caught last week’s episode of “This American Life” podcast will find the lead story of debtors court familiar to the “Produce the Note (M’fer) that has been touted here months ago.

  37. D-FENS says:

    Yale professor on Carly Fiorina’s business record: She ‘destroyed half the wealth of her investors yet still earned almost $100 million’

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yale-professor-carly-fiorinas-business-193457030.html?socsrc=mediacontentsharebuttons&soctrk=tw

  38. grim says:

    Fiorina attacking Trump on his business record? Snicker.

    This is the cream of the republican crop?

  39. joyce says:

    This and Hillary and Bernie is the cream of the us crop

  40. Juice Box says:

    Did Rubio ever have a private sector job? I have my doubts whether another Lawyer who never had a real job other than teaching some college classes can do anything different that the current guy in office.

  41. D-FENS says:

    Ragnar, you are too smart for your own good. Don’t over analyze the candidates or their “proposals” or “policies”. Average Americans don’t give a fcuk anyway. It puts them [and me] to sleep. Remember the majority of people who vote in elections are regular slobs.

  42. D-FENS says:

    Prolly a lot of former HP shareholders and [domestic] employees that won’t be voting for Fiorina. Too bad people from China and India can’t vote in U.S. elections. She gave many of them jobs during her tenure at HP.

  43. D-FENS says:

    On the other hand, recent history shows that really all you need to be president in this country is to be a good public speaker. Maybe she has a shot.

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [16] punkin

    ” I’ll leave the country if she becomes president.”

    Well, I’ve decided how I will vote.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    Also, I am encouraging all I know to cross lines and vote with the Sanderistas. We need the second coming of George McGovern.

    Ironically, George McGovern would be castigated by today’s Democratic Party. While his positions were on the far left of the party then, they are center-right today.

  46. D-FENS says:

    Stephen Colbert: Well, the right to have an individual firearm to protect yourself is a national document, in the Constitution, so shouldn’t that also be applied national…

    Jeb Bush: No. Not necessarily…There’s a 10th amendment to our country, the Bill of Rights has a 10th amendment that says powers are given to the states to create policy, and the federal government is not the end all and be all. That’s an important value for this country, and it’s an important federalist system that works quite well.

  47. D-FENS says:

    Ben Carson To Beck: You Have No Right To Semi-Automatic Weapons in Large Cities – See more at: http://right180.com/2015/09/13/ben-carson-to-beck-you-have-no-right-to-semi-automatic-weapons-in-large-cities#sthash.WxGUjtg5.dpuf

  48. 1987 Condo says:

    I’ll say yes to hike at 2

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You will endure much suffering to get rid of me. You must really hate me.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:
    September 17, 2015 at 1:16 pm
    [16] punkin

    ” I’ll leave the country if she becomes president.”

    Well, I’ve decided how I will vote.

  50. Fabius Maximus says:

    That was a great debate. 10 unelectables and Kasich the only one with a chance to win against a D ticket. Pity he won’t get out of the primaries. He didn’t have a strong debate, but he had a fair night.

    iCarly was fun invoking Steve Jobs. I am reminded of something Mrs Fab told me years back. She was standing at the back of an auditorium, trying to work out if the lady at the lectern, was a natural Energ1zer Bunny, or had some marching powder with her Cheerios.

    Trump and CC walking in all buddy buddy was strange up until the questions started. CC held back on Trump and I think the Running Mate has been bought. If Trump wins I will have fun thinking of a few in here holding their nose as they pull the lever for him. With his positions on Means Testing Social Security, Progressive Taxation and the anti-vaccine stance, I almost thought he was pitching to get my vote.

    GOP 2020 – the easiest way to a win, is when you have no realistic competition.

  51. Ragnar says:

    Eddie,
    Rubio is too forgettable. See how I forgot him?
    I don’t have a problem with him, but he seems more VP than P material at the moment. He’s had opportunities to light fires with the audience, but there’s only been a flicker of interest.

    The big question is which of the more polished political candidate can take over the points currently held by the early Trump/Carson infatuations. I suspect it’s not Rubio.

  52. 1987 Condo says:

    ugh…no change in rates :(

  53. chicagofinance says:

    suck

  54. HeHateMe says:

    BS no raise

  55. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July
    suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Household
    spending and business fixed investment have been increasing moderately, and
    the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been
    soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and
    declining unemployment. On balance, labor market indicators show that
    underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year.
    Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective,
    partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy
    imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation moved lower;
    survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained
    stable.
    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
    maximum employment and price stability. Recent global economic and financial
    developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put
    further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Nonetheless, the
    Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic
    activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators
    continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its
    dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for
    economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced but is monitoring
    developments abroad. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low
    level in the near term but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually
    toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further
    and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices
    dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments
    closely.
    To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price
    stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4
    percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In
    determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will
    assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of
    maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into
    account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market
    conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations,
    and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee
    anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the
    federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor
    market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2
    percent objective over the medium term.
    The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal
    payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed
    securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing
    Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s
    holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain
    accommodative financial conditions.
    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it
    will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
    maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently
    anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near
    mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant
    keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as
    normal in the longer run.
    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen , Chair;
    William C. Dudley , Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard ; Charles L. Evans ; Stanley
    Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart ; Jerome H. Powell ; Daniel K. Tarullo ; and John
    C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred
    to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at
    this meeting.

  56. In other words, no new guidance.

  57. Libturd in Union says:

    And no wage inflation!

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Economy will be broken until you see wage inflation. That’s my whole basis for the prediction, the economy can not normalize until you have wage inflation. Income inequality just exacerbates the problems in the economy even more.

    Libturd in Union says:
    September 17, 2015 at 2:20 pm
    And no wage inflation!

  59. Pump – I thought your whole basis was that you found you had an ass and decided to reach inside.

    Economy will be broken until you see wage inflation. That’s my whole basis for the prediction, the economy can not normalize until you have wage inflation. Income inequality just exacerbates the problems in the economy even more.

  60. Alex says:

    No interest rate hike means economy is still in the toilet despite media efforts attempting to tout some sort of recovery.

  61. Libturd in Union says:

    Alex,

    I am sort of reading it in a similar fashion. Zirp to infinity.

  62. Bystander says:

    What is with Butgers football? Players arrested, top WR suspended after he hits girl to ground and now HC suspended for messing with player grades. Does not look positive for trip against (weak) Penn State this weekend with top NJ recruits watching.

  63. grim says:

    Shut it all down

  64. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fabu [52];

    So according to you, the leftmost of the GOP candidates is the “only one with a chance”.

    Let me check with Presidents McCain and Romney, and I’ll take your input under advisement.

    I’d sure love to see the Dems run Lieberman. But we know that anyone not openly hostile to the military (i.e., General Betray-us) is a non-starter among the left wing whackjobs — not to mention there is no way the ‘enlightened’, ‘tolerant’ core of the new left Democrats would ever get behind a MOT.

    At least I don’t pretend to couch my advice as what’s “best” for my adversary.

  65. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [63];

    Zirp to infinity.

    We’re turning Japaneese. In more ways than one.

  66. Anon E. Moose says:

    BTW, Biden is in as of today. Which can only mean one thing — Ding, Dong, the witch is dead.

  67. joyce says:

    good to know people still think there’s a difference

  68. Ragnar says:

    Because the talking heads working for investment banks that are allowed to borrow for free thanks to ZIRP said that the world was too weak to handle them having to pay interest.

    Meanwhile, asset valuations globally are super high, considering each of 1) global equity valuations (high p/e, high p/b), 2) global fixed income valuations (really low interest rates), and 3) global property valuations (not at the peak in US, but near the peak in UK, rising in Europe, very high in China).

    So of course our central planners keep on pouring the punch. They have retirement jobs at investment banks, the lecture circuit, and associated think tanks to prepare for.

  69. Ragnar says:

    Moose,
    Biden doesn’t look official yet.
    The witch isn’t dead, but I suspect we’re about to watch her melt into a puddle of goo.

  70. HeHateMe says:

    Nappy Hos

    Bystander says:

    September 17, 2015 at 3:15 pm

    What is with Butgers football? Players arrested, top WR suspended after he hits girl to ground and now HC suspended for messing with player grades. Does not look positive for trip against (weak) Penn State this weekend with top NJ recruits watching.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    [51] pumpkin

    For me to hate you, it would have to be worth my time. And if I
    really hated you, I’d cap you.

    I don’t really hate you. I find you mildly annoying but that’s it.

  72. leftwing says:

    Lib, doing ok. Bj is funny as you know. Play the house to a push for two hours to get threes to split twice into a dealer six. Which either makes or breaks you depending on what she pulls.

    More pertinent question is why seriously post menopausal woman get angry when I pay more attention to their 29 year old daughter than to them. Not the first time…….lol

  73. Anon E. Moose says:

    Rags [71];

    If Hill ever officially drops, look for her financiers and supporters to swing behind Princess Faux-cahontas. They can’t possibly stand by to let any “WarOnWomen” goodwill that they so painstakingly manufactured to be sucked up by Carly.

  74. chicagofinance says:

    Am I whacked? Carly Fiorina does a pretty solid job of responding to Katie Couric here, but this liberal website shreds the performance. This link was posted to Facebook and subsequently Liked by people who aren’t idiots, but I am thinking what am I missing? Are people completely ignorant about global warming……oh I mean “climate change” because the globe is no longer warming……
    Don’t just read the page….watch the You Tube video…..
    http://www.vox.com/2015/8/21/9186313/carly-fiorina-climate-wrong

  75. Libturd at home says:

    People are calling Rutgers, Rikers University. Pretty clever. And Flood was a very undisciplined c0ach. It’s showing now. Complete opposite of Schiano who ran a strict ship. Flood tried the personable accountability approach. This rarely works with hero’s of the ghetto. Sorry to be so blunt, but it’s the truth.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone that denies human imposed climate change is living in a fairy tale in which their actions have no consequences. This article does a good job of ripping her faux talking points to shreds.

    chicagofinance says:
    September 17, 2015 at 5:01 pm
    Am I whacked? Carly Fiorina does a pretty solid job of responding to Katie Couric here, but this liberal website shreds the performance. This link was posted to Facebook and subsequently Liked by people who aren’t idiots, but I am thinking what am I missing? Are people completely ignorant about global warming……oh I mean “climate change” because the globe is no longer warming……
    Don’t just read the page….watch the You Tube video…..
    http://www.vox.com/2015/8/21/9186313/carly-fiorina-climate-wrong

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Via Robert Reich – “I’ve had so many calls about an article appearing earlier this week in the Wall Street Journal — charging that Bernie Sanders’s proposals would carry a “price tag” of $18 trillion over a 10-year period — that it’s necessary to respond.

    The Journal’s number is entirely bogus, designed to frighten the public. Please spread the truth:

    (1) Bernie’s proposals would cost less than what we’d spend without them. Most of the “cost” the Journal comes up with—$15 trillion—would pay for opening Medicare to everyone. This would be cheaper than relying on our current system of for-profit private health insurers that charge you and me huge administrative costs, advertising, marketing, bloated executive salaries, and high pharmaceutical prices. (Gerald Friedman, an economist at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, estimates a Medicare-for-all system would actually save all of us $10 trillion over 10 years).

    (2) The savings from Medicare-for-all would more than cover the costs of the rest of Bernie’s agenda—tuition-free education at public colleges, expanded Social Security benefits, improved infrastructure, and a fund to help cover paid family leave – and still leave us $2 trillion to cut federal deficits for the next ten years.

    (3) Many of these other “costs” would also otherwise be paid by individuals and families — for example, in college tuition and private insurance. So they shouldn’t be considered added costs for the country as a whole, and may well save us money.

    (4) Finally, Bernie’s proposed spending on education and infrastructure aren’t really “spending” at all, but investments in the nation’s future productivity. If we don’t make them, we’re all poorer.

    That Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal would do this giant dump on Bernie, based on misinformation and distortion, confirms Bernie’s status as the candidate willing to take on the moneyed interests that the Wall Street Journal represents. Your thoughts?”

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can you imagine, if a small business didn’t have to worry about providing health insurance how much more quickly it could expand. Perhaps if a family business didn’t have to worry about providing insurance they could hire even one more person. And with all of the small family businesses out there that could add up to a LOT of jobs very quickly.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    80- Link to an open letter by the economist the wall st journal used for #s. He is stating the wall st journal has it all wrong.

    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/8143062

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Gerald Friedman’s research was cited in a Wall Street Journal story about Bernie Sanders’s proposals for government spending. Friedman responds to that story below.
    It is said of economists that they know the cost of everything but the value of nothing. In the case of the article “Price Tag of Bernie Sanders’s Proposals: $18 Trillion,” this accusation is a better fit for the Wall Street Journal that published it.
    The Journal correctly puts the additional federal spending for health care under HR 676 (a single payer health plan) at $15 trillion over ten years. It neglects to add, however, that by spending these vast sums, we would, as a country, save nearly $5 trillion over ten years in reduced administrative waste, lower pharmaceutical and device prices, and by lowering the rate of medical inflation.
    These financial savings would be felt by businesses and by state and local governments who would no longer be paying for health insurance for their employees; and by retirees and working Americans who would no longer have to pay for their health insurance or for co-payments and deductibles. Beyond these financial savings, HR 676 would also save thousands of lives a year by expanding access to health care for the uninsured and the underinsured.
    The economic benefits from Senator Sander’s proposal would be even greater than these static estimates suggest because a single-payer plan would create dynamic gains by freeing American businesses to compete without the burden of an inefficient and wasteful health insurance system. As with Senator Sanders’ other proposals, the economic boom created by HR 676, including the productivity boost coming from a more efficient health care system and a healthier population, would raise economic output and provide billions of dollars in additional tax revenues to over-set some of the additional federal spending.
    Summary of 10-year projections
    Because of the nearly $10 trillion in savings, it is possible to fund over $4.5 trillion in additional services while still reducing national health care spending by over $5 trillion. With these net savings, the additional $14.7 trillion in federal spending brings savings to the private sector (and state and local governments) of over $19.7 trillion.

  81. yome says:

    The cost the businesses and individual pay for health care to Insurance Companies will be transferred to the Federal Government in the form of taxes. It is a zero sum game. In the long run it can save money by eliminating advertising,marketing and bloated salaries.
    I am all in for a Single Payer System

  82. Juice Box says:

    Pumpkin you are a numbers guy. If you take the money out of Phama who is going to invent the next cancer drug?

  83. yome says:

    Are the Pharma Research only being done in the US and everybody in the World enjoy low cost, while Americans pay to their eye balls? Plenty of drugs coming from Europe that are not available in the US but tested better than what is available here. If they can do better drug research in Europe and consumers not pay to their eye balls,it is probably time to try their way. No?

  84. Juice Box says:

    Frigging Hilarious.

    Janet Yellen Sees a ‘Very Depressed’ Housing Market
    The Fed chief noted that housing is a small but important sector of the economy

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/janet-yellen-sees-a-very-depressed-housing-market

  85. yome says:

    Heart Surgery in India under $2,000 in US over $100K. We are not including meds yet

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-28/heart-surgery-in-india-for-1-583-costs-106-385-in-u-s-

  86. Juice Box says:

    Yome – my question was a simple one, do you think the funding for Drug research comes from the US or India?

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Watch from 13:23 for this economist’s position on why wages stagnated in the 1970’s. Gives four main reasons. 1. Computers eliminating people’s jobs. 2. Shipping of jobs overseas. 3. Women joining the workforce 4. Massive immigration starting in the 70’s. I’m trying to watch the whole thing, will let you know what he thinks we can do about it.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OcA1v2n7WW4

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is Dimon for real? This pisses me off. Don’t worry about the middle class, they have iPhones, therefore they are living good. What a joker. Love it, the middle class is fine, they have iPhones, but don’t take anything away from billionaires, that hurts our country. Def a screwed up pt of view.

    Juice Box says:
    September 17, 2015 at 7:38 pm
    Pumpkin don’t get fired up over this one.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/dimon-says-iphones-cars-help-balance-out-u-s-income-inequality?module=TopNews&position=1_reaction

  89. Libturd at home says:

    British Airways Avios deal is back out again. It’s the most lucrative credit card offer you will ever get.

  90. Libturd at home says:

    Gator and I are thinking about going to Hawaii with the young runts in first class for free.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, celebrating first day of school says:

    [93] lib

    Long ass flight. First class makes it tolerable

  92. Juice Box says:

    Re #91 – riddle me this Pumpkin, next Secretary of the Treasury is xxxxxxxzx.

    The current one seems to think he is a ghost.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is crazy. This economist follows my same line of thinking on the economy. This is insane. Start at the 25:00 minute mark of the video for a break down of how income inequality will destroy the economy. He really does a concise job of breaking down how the 2008 crash came about.

    I’ll just point this out. We are at the breaking point, that’s what the 2008 crash was about. If we don’t get real wage inflation soon, the economy will crumble. Our wages have stagnated since the 70’s, so how did the economy keep going with the consumer having less and less? Bingo, BORROWING! Borrowing kept the economy growing when the wages stagnated. That’s why you didn’t see an immediate impact on the economy from the consumer unable to maintain demand due to stagnant wages. The void in consumption due to stagnant wages was filled with borrowing.

    So instead of giving raises to suffice demand in the economy, they lent money to maintain this demand. Yup, they would lend money instead of giving raises. You can only go so long on this equation. That’s why I claim the corporate lords chased short term profits, they were too stupid to realize the crash at the end of the road due to imbalance in the profit wage department. You will eventually hit a cliff in the consumer demand.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    September 17, 2015 at 9:15 pm
    Watch from 13:23 for this economist’s position on why wages stagnated in the 1970′s. Gives four main reasons. 1. Computers eliminating people’s jobs. 2. Shipping of jobs overseas. 3. Women joining the workforce 4. Massive immigration starting in the 70′s. I’m trying to watch the whole thing, will let you know what he thinks we can do about it.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OcA1v2n7WW4

  94. phoenix says:

    Pumpkin,
    Watch this video, it is 7 years old. It will show you there are no easy answers and also the trajectory we are headed in.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

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