No Quick Recovery for Jersey

From the APP:

Jersey Shore home prices: Rising, but how far?

Looking to buy or sell a home? Nearly 10 years after the market in Monmouth and Ocean counties hit its peak, residential real estate has shown encouraging signs of life, but nothing like the wild climbs that once led to the housing bubble of the last decade.

Housing prices in New Jersey have increased since 2011, a few years after the housing bubble burst, but momentum is expected to slow in the next year, said Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at CohnReznick.

Currently, in New Jersey “prices are still about 20 percent below where they were” since their peak in 2006, O’Keefe said.

Nationally, prices are only 2.4 percent lower than what they were in 2006, according to O’Keefe.

One reason prices have been slow to recover here, is that “prices in New Jersey, relatively speaking, had run up much faster and further than what was true nationally during the housing boom,” O’Keefe said.

The median sales price of existing single-family homes for the Edison area, which includes Monmouth and Ocean County, in the second quarter of 2015 is $323,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That is up 4.5 percent compared with the second quarter of 2014.

Despite the rising costs, July has seen the most sales of existing homes since the housing recession began, O’Keefe said. However, the prices of homes is expected to stagnate, he said.

“(Analysts) expect prices will rise in 2016, but not rise faster than the rate of inflation,” he said. “In other words, there won’t be real gain in prices.”

Contributing factors to the plateau of home prices include the expectation that the government will raise interest rates, and that would-be sellers are hesitant to put their homes on the market, waiting for prices to climb further, O’Keefe said.

“One of the things that has bedeviled housing recovery nationally, but even more pronounced in New Jersey, is potential home sellers have been unwilling to list their homes because of the degree to which they would have to take a discounted price,” O’Keefe said.

This entry was posted in Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

62 Responses to No Quick Recovery for Jersey

  1. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Black Knight: July housing prices rose 0.4%

    Black Knight Financial Services’ home price index report for July 2015 shows that home prices were up 0.4% for the month, rising 5.3% on a year-over- year basis.

    This puts national home prices also up 5.3% since the start of the year and up nearly 27% since the bottom of the market at the start of 2012.

    At $248,000, the national level HPI is now just 5.5% off its June 2006 peak of $268,000.

    New York led gains among the states, seeing 1.4% month-over-month appreciation, followed by Hawaii and Florida, both of which gained at 0.8% from June. New York State metros also accounted for 7 of the top 10 best performing metro areas.

  2. grim says:

    So Bosch wrote the illegal VW emissions bypass code? But told VW it was illegal when they delivered it? This is going to be interesting…

  3. grim says:

    From Autonews:

    Bosch warned VW about illegal software use in diesel cars, report says

    Bild am Sonntag said the roots of the crisis were planted in 2005 when then-VW brand chief Wolfgang Bernhard wanted VW to develop a new diesel engine for the U.S. market. Bernhard recruited Audi engineer Rudolf Krebs who developed a prototype that performed well in tests in South Africa in 2006, the paper said.

    Bernhard and Krebs argued that the only way to make the engine meet U.S. emission standards was to employ in the engine system an AdBlue urea solution used on larger diesel models such as the Passat and Touareg, according to the report.

    This would have added a cost of 300 euros ($335 in today’s U.S. dollars) per vehicle — a sum that VW finance officials said was too much at a time when a companywide cost-cutting exercise was under way.

  4. grim says:

    Audi in the mix too? 2 million cars?

  5. 1987 Condo says:

    Audi is same as VW….I’d assume that if the engine is not using urea, something is up. I am sure all the other german engineers must have known something..VW didn’t just come up with a “magic” solution to bypass urea..oh yeah, they did!

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    @pdacosta:

    Sound familiar? “The automobile industry was left to do these tests themselves, there was no control.” #Volkswagen

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who needs regulation, it holds us back from legally robbing people…lol As we already see, even with regulations these con artists try to get around it. Why is doing the right thing so difficult for business men chasing profit?

    anon (the good one) says:
    September 28, 2015 at 8:00 am
    @pdacosta:

    Sound familiar? “The automobile industry was left to do these tests themselves, there was no control.” #Volkswagen

  8. grim says:

    There is regulation, there are laws, and what you are seeing is the enforcement of those regulations and laws. The system is working.

    We make a rule, we make manufacturers responsible for following, a manufacturer lied and was irresponsible, it was identified, we take appropriate action and hold the manufacturer accountable.

    What’s the problem? I fail to see where you believe there was a breakdown. That someone did something that violated a regulation or a law? How do you posit we stop people from breaking laws? Lots of people are interested.

    In this case, it was the PUBLIC that found the problem, and escalated it, not the EPA. In fact, the EPA and various other countries all entirely missed this.

    Monday morning idiocy.

  9. anon (the good one) says:

    the extreme right wingers argue against regulations, the extreme right wingers argue against them every single. so if the system is working as is, we must not allow the right wingers to destroy it

    grim says:
    September 28, 2015 at 8:35 am
    There is regulation, there are laws, and what you are seeing is the enforcement of those regulations and laws. The system is working.

  10. D-FENS says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-23/carmaker-cheating-on-emissions-almost-as-old-as-pollution-tests

    Ford, Honda, GM (on a Cadillac model) Hyundai, and Kia all were involved in emissions cheating. As were some of the manufacturers of large diesel engines in the past.

    “Also in 1998, the Justice Department and the EPA settled a $267 million case with Honda Motor Co. and a separate $7.8 million case with Ford Motor Co. for selling cars with systems designed to defeat emissions control systems.
    Last year, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp. agreed to pay the equivalent of $350 million in fines, forfeited credits and certification testing to settle U.S. claims that they overstated fuel economy on the window stickers car buyers see at dealer showrooms.
    The companies tested cars only at optimal temperatures and used the best results rather than averages, according to the EPA. The inflated mileage claims affected 1.2 million vehicles sold in the U.S.

    The current VW case resembles a 1998 case involving seven manufacturers of heavy-duty truck engines: Caterpillar Inc., Cummins Inc., Detroit Diesel Corp., Mack Trucks Inc., Navistar International Transportation Corp., Renault Vehicules Industriels, S.A. and Volvo Truck Corp.”

  11. A Home Buyer says:

    So in troll post #6 the system is broken because the EPA (well, basically the entire world regulatory community) failed to do what a bunch of college students have been doing for what sounds like decades.

    In troll post #9, the system is working… not sure why though. But maintaining the status quo of that system is better then ANY alternative that has a Republican associated with it.

    And this is just my assumption based on the logic I am seeing here, but the only true fix to that regulatory system is to make it larger and more complex?

  12. Libturd in Union says:

    “the extreme right wingers argue against regulations, the extreme right wingers argue against them every single. so if the system is working as is, we must not allow the right wingers to destroy it”

    You should immediately seek help.

    Anon, when you have a runny turd, do you blame the extreme right wingers?

  13. D-FENS says:

    I think the organization that discovered the emissions cheat was hired by a European regulatory agency.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    “One of the things that has bedeviled housing recovery nationally, but even more pronounced in New Jersey, is potential home sellers have been unwilling to list their homes because of the degree to which they would have to take a discounted price,” O’Keefe said.

    Translation: They can’t list their house because they’re deeply underwater and cannot or will not come to the closing table with a check.

  15. Juice Box says:

    So when do the EPA chief step down? They need to investigate the Obama Administration, somebody was on the take, they have testing facilities, really nice ones.

    http://www3.epa.gov/nvfel/

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    One reason prices have been slow to recover here, is that “prices in New Jersey, relatively speaking, had run up much faster and further than what was true nationally during the housing boom,” O’Keefe said.

    Any questions?

  17. Fast Eddie says:

    The EPA has nothing to do with environmental protection. It’s a money laundering operation designed for leverage to sustain control by dem0crats.

  18. D-FENS says:

    15 – JB

    I think what’s far more likely, is that the people who discovered the VW emissions cheat will be whacked.

  19. A Home Buyer says:

    13 –


    But how did this whole thing begin? At a small lab in West Virgina, it turns out. In 2012, a group of researchers at West Virginia University won a $50,000 grant from the International Council on Clean Transportation to do performance testing on clean diesel cars. Arvind Thiruvengadam, a research assistant professor in mechanical and aerospace engineering, told NPR this week that the team was merely excited do the research—which involved driving the clean diesel cars outside the lab—and write a journal paper based on the data. They never expected that they would discover one of the biggest frauds in automotive history.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/volkswagen-scandal-cheating-emission-virginia-epa/407425/

  20. A Home Buyer says:

    13 / 19 –

    To expand, it wasn’t an organization. It was an associate professor, a small support team, and 50K grant.

    Compared with 8 Billion and 15,000 workers of the EPA.

  21. Libturd in Union says:

    Maybe VW forgot to send in their campaign contributions?

  22. phoenix says:

    8 Grim,
    It’s not s much about the regulations or the enforcement. It’s about the ethics and morals of the corporation.
    Corporations understand money and risk. Fines are a petty annoyance.
    Like Escobar in the Narcos series, you pay what you need to pay.
    What he feared most was extradition into a REAL PRISON.
    Until you jail these people for very long times, nothing, absolutely nothing will change.

  23. Alex says:

    As the economic “recovery” continues, Whole Foods cutting 1500 jobs.

  24. number2 says:

    Does anyone know how bad the diesel polluting is contextually? I can’t find an apple to apple comparison. I’ve seen articles stating 40 times worse than advertised but how bad is that for perspective? Is it still better than an old Buick or equal to a dump truck trying to merge up hill onto 78 from Berkeley Heights?

  25. grim says:

    24 – A big American diesel pickup truck pollutes more than the little VW 4 banger turbodiesel.

  26. grim says:

    But you aren’t going to hear the EPA make that comparison.

  27. D-FENS says:

    http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/advanced-cars/how-professors-caught-vw-cheating

    “Some people have mischaracterized what our role was,” says Dan Carder, interim director of West Virginia University’s Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions (CAFEE). “Some have used the phrase ‘tipped off the EPA.’ But we were just working under contract.”

    The contracting organization, a European non-profit, had wanted to convince European regulators to emulate strict U.S. standards for diesel emissions of nitrous oxides (NOX). So it asked CAFEE engineers to gather data from the field. They rented VW diesels, measured their tailpipe emissions on the road and compared them to measurements on the same cars made in the lab. The discrepancies were huge.

    “We presented this in a public forum in San Diego, in the spring of 2014; we said, these are two vehicles; we’re presenting what we can present,” Carder says. “And EPA people were in the audience.” Meanwhile, the sponsoring group, called the International Council on Clean Transportation, published the results online as well.

  28. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    [12] libturd

    There’s nothing wrong with anon that can’t be cured with the proper application of a lead projectile with mushrooming capability, administered at high velocity through the cerebellum and medula oblongata.

  29. number2 says:

    #25, absolution with great mileage for the winning.

  30. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    [20] buyer

    “To expand, it wasn’t an organization. It was an associate professor, a small support team, and 50K grant. Compared with 8 Billion and 15,000 workers of the EPA.”

    An amateur built the Ark. Professionals built the Titanic.

  31. leftwing says:

    “They can’t list their house because they’re deeply underwater and cannot or will not come to the closing table with a check”

    Depends. Many people in my area have stopped living vicariously through their houses. There is little desire for movement up once the ‘standard’ needs are met. That constipates the entire system, right down to starters.

    The high water idiocy here had two marks. In a town of standard issue half acre lots a *knockdown* on a 3/4 acre lot sold for $1.2m. The second was on a double lot some clown built a 105′ wide house (prompting a change in zoning law that restricted house width not based on side yard setback but instead by absolute feet).

    During this period it was just assumed that if you were in a period 4BR/3BA perfectly fine house you were going to do the move up to the new construction on a knockdown lot or a bigger existing house.

    Not any more.

    Attitude has totally changed. People go to pains now at parties to emphasize how reasonable their housing is, not how extravagant. There have been many high profile pullbacks not based on finances. Without too much specificity one family left the main part of town to custom build on a slightly larger knockdown lot quite a large home (north of $3m). He recently did a roundtrip, back into town in a house at half the value. The new house is still on his balance sheet and will go at a loss. Many more similar anecdotal tales.

    People just aren’t focusing as much on the Joneses anymore or their (apparent) net worth. (Except Pumps of course who can give an exact count of the ‘millionaires’ in his and nearby towns).

    Real estate is very local. In our area there is a dearth of product. That deficiency is more attributed to a change in attitude on what a desirable primary home is rather than an inability to sell because of being underwater.

  32. A Home Buyer says:

    27 –

    Not sure where (or if) we diverge on this.

    CAFEE is apart of West Virginia University. They were given a grant by the a European Non-Profit to perform and study with the purpose of using the results to try and convince European Regulators to match US standards.

    I don’t believe I presented this in an a fictitious or misleading way…

  33. 1987 Condo says:

    I am very happy that at 53, my 2,000 sq foot updated expanded ranch with a quarter acre yard that I can mow myself is paid off and my taxes are an almost reasonable (for NJ) $9,000.

  34. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gourd [7];

    Who needs regulation, it holds us back from legally robbing people…lol As we already see, even with regulations these con artists try to get around it. Why is doing the right thing so difficult for business men chasing profit?

    The regulations that VW was trying to meet were put in place by the government; never demanded by the market. Play stupid government games, win stupid government prizes.

  35. Anon E. Moose says:

    Toyota got punished, VW getting punished, GM got rescued. YoU take a A good look at What differentiates these companies?

  36. Anon E. Moose says:

    Eddie [14];

    Translation: They can’t list their house because they’re deeply underwater and cannot or will not come to the closing table with a check.

    Loss aversion is a real human trait. For many, moving is discretionary, so they will choose other options to avoid taking the loss, eve if they are not underwater.

    There is a house directly across the street from me — bought by a family (couple) with two small kids at the top of the bubble. Probably down (still, today) about $100k from their purchase price. I know for a fact they are not underwater (I saw the recorded refi. docs when doing my due diligence on the neighborhood). When they moved to the west coast, first they put a renter in it; they were there for a year and a half. It has been empty for some 6 months now. They are still feeding it PITI every month, when they could likely walk away clean or close to it. I don’t know if they plan to return to the area, but they are managing a long-distance rental, probably losing money even when rented, all to avoid ripping the band-aid off now.

  37. grim says:

    I’d like a buy a $3m house, but I can’t afford to sell my current house at a price that would make that possible.

    These pieces are silly. If someone can’t afford to sell, they probably can’t afford to buy. People used to live in homes for a long time, only recently did changing your house like your underwear become the norm.

    Where you going that you can’t afford to sell?

  38. Ragnar says:

    NOx levels are dramatically lower than they were in the 1980s in both US and Europe.
    Here is a detailed paper of observed levels:
    http://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/cat05/1108251149_110718_AQ0724_Final_report.pdf

    This paper compares deaths related to total transportation pollutants vs deaths related to transportation accidents, and finds the total effect similar. Except crashed tend to kill the young, and pollutants tend to kill the elderly living in cities. I would definitely recommend against retiring near the Port of Newark or big expressways.
    http://lae.mit.edu/wordpress2/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/US-air-pollution-paper.pdf

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good write up. Even though you throw me under the bus, I agree with you here. I bought a 4br/3ba with the intentions of being able to live in it till my wife and I retire. We don’t want to pay the moving costs, or the closing costs, but the main reason is to build a family around this home. A place that you have built so many memories around that it will be difficult to leave. We waited 3 years to find the right home, hopefully the location doesn’t change for the worse in the next 30 years.

    leftwing says:
    September 28, 2015 at 11:37 am
    “They can’t list their house because they’re deeply underwater and cannot or will not come to the closing table with a check”

    Depends. Many people in my area have stopped living vicariously through their houses. There is little desire for movement up once the ‘standard’ needs are met. That constipates the entire system, right down to starters.

    The high water idiocy here had two marks. In a town of standard issue half acre lots a *knockdown* on a 3/4 acre lot sold for $1.2m. The second was on a double lot some clown built a 105′ wide house (prompting a change in zoning law that restricted house width not based on side yard setback but instead by absolute feet).

    During this period it was just assumed that if you were in a period 4BR/3BA perfectly fine house you were going to do the move up to the new construction on a knockdown lot or a bigger existing house.

    Not any more.

    Attitude has totally changed. People go to pains now at parties to emphasize how reasonable their housing is, not how extravagant. There have been many high profile pullbacks not based on finances. Without too much specificity one family left the main part of town to custom build on a slightly larger knockdown lot quite a large home (north of $3m). He recently did a roundtrip, back into town in a house at half the value. The new house is still on his balance sheet and will go at a loss. Many more similar anecdotal tales.

    People just aren’t focusing as much on the Joneses anymore or their (apparent) net worth. (Except Pumps of course who can give an exact count of the ‘millionaires’ in his and nearby towns).

    Real estate is very local. In our area there is a dearth of product. That deficiency is more attributed to a change in attitude on what a desirable primary home is rather than an inability to sell because of being underwater.

  40. Libturd in Union says:

    Nom,

    Anon needs to worry more about the stock market than anything else. The juiced returns from the past half a decade appear to be disintegrating a bit. A few more market days like today and I would expect to start seeing articles on the upcoming pension implosions.

  41. Fast Eddie says:

    That deficiency is more attributed to a change in attitude on what a desirable primary home is rather than an inability to sell because of being underwater.

    I disagree. It’s the aftermath of the theft perpetrated by the housing syndicate inflicted upon unsuspecting, soft-bellied, fluffy muppets.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    People just aren’t focusing as much on the Joneses anymore or their (apparent) net worth.

    Very few have any net worth. And I’m talking about the younger wannabe crowd whose kid’s names are Cortland, Breck and Dunbar.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    Or is it Nan, Topper, Buffy and Cricket?

  44. Fast Eddie says:

    Good shot Scooter, you almost made a goal!! Run Cuffy, run!

  45. leftwing says:

    36. Anon. If a work related move it may be the corp calling the shots, depends on the relo package.

    Eddie: Again, everything is very local. There is probably a very high R-squared between our two positions and foreclosure filings/sales.

    I found four sheriff’s sales for my town. Out of nearly 1,000 in the county database. I’m not seeing in our area market lock attributed to underwater homes. I am seeing a total ’emotional’ boycott by buyers of taking the hook that they need the latest, shiniest new thing.

  46. walking bye says:

    @42 What no Trip, Brooklyn? As for keeping up with the Joneses there is still much snobbery here in Bergen. I see it at my kids parties I attend.

  47. jj says:

    if mowing laws makes you happy does that mean you are Mexican? I rather plow bush

    1987 Condo says:

    September 28, 2015 at 11:54 am
    I am very happy that at 53, my 2,000 sq foot updated expanded ranch with a quarter acre yard that I can mow myself is paid off and my taxes are an almost reasonable (for NJ) $9,000.

  48. Anon E. Moose says:

    lw [45];

    Its possible there is a relo company in the mix. A generous relo package will offer the seller whatever is higher between the seller’s purchase price or the avg. of two/middle of three appraisals. My understanding is that the relo company usually buys the house from the individual, and then lists it until it sells, esp if the seller wants that (phantom) equity to buy a new place.

    On the other hand, the first renter at least was the plan (or backup plan) of the owners, who told me about the people moving in before they left. If the relo company gave them a lump sum for the difference below their purchase price or some other sort of financial backstop maybe they are leaning into that to float the house with the hope that the tide will rise.

  49. 1987 Condo says:

    #47….I’ll clarify for you, I owe nobody nuthin…..college handled as well….and I do not outsource my lawn care. Not sure how you got plowing out of that….Winter has yet to start!

  50. I can smell Punkin’s brain farts through the intertubes.

  51. …they smell like smoldering meth…

  52. Grim says:

    Kitchen sucks

  53. leftwing says:

    Floorboards are horrible. Look at all that grain. Plus seems they used red oak #2 upstairs. At least it’s not laminate I guess, LOL.

  54. Libturd in Union says:

    Pretty good storm brewing for this weekend. Could end this drought in one swift flooding storm. JJ…time to pick those last few Vidalias.

  55. A Home Buyer says:

    Pretty sure the last time Lib commented on the weather, Sandy hit.

    Stocking up now.

  56. D-FENS says:

    New Jersey Gun Laws Screw Over Another Innocent Mom – Facing 10 years in Prison

    http://www.ammoland.com/2015/09/new-jersey-gun-laws-screw-over-another-innocent-mom/#axzz3n5eL8Rs6

  57. Libturd in Union says:

    Will be on high lunar tide, but no extra surge like in a hurricane. More of a heavy rain event at this point. With full foliage and compromised strength due to lack of rain, some trees could topple in a 5-7 inch storm, which is currently what some of the models are calling for. Will separate the hype from the fiction as the week goes on.

  58. Libturd in Union says:

    Some weather pron. Keep in mind, there’s a front coming from the west simultaneously.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1115W5_NL_sm2+gif/210443W5_NL_sm.gif

  59. Now Spanky be reasonable says:

    #53 – The kitchen is there because it is required by law – no one in that house ever cooked, not even the maid.

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