November Existing Home Sales

From the WSJ:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Plunge in November

Sales of previously owned homes plummeted in November as delays caused by new mortgage red-tape and a dwindling supply of residences on the market pushed down sales to a level not seen since April 2014.

Existing-home sales fell 10.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.76 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday, well below the 5.32 million economists expected. The double-digit decline was the sharpest since July 2010, when sales took a hit from the expiration of a home-buyer tax credit.

The NAR blamed the lion’s share of the November decline on closing delays caused by new federal rules implemented by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in October, although it said rising home prices and tight inventory continued to challenge potential buyers.

Several realtors said pressure on housing inventories is also driving the sales slump. The number of existing homes for sale fell more than 3% on the month in November and was down nearly 2% on the year.

“I think we’re still seeing a fair amount of tightness in active selling markets,” said Zillow Chief Economist Svenja Gudell, adding first-time buyers trying to enter the market at a lower price point are facing particular scarcity. Housing prices have also climbed faster than wages in many markets, making it more difficult for first-time buyers to save for a down payment.

In November, the national median home price rose to $220,300, the 45th consecutive month of gains year over year, and 6.3% higher than the same month last year.

Despite November’s decline, NAR said home sales are on track for their best year since the current economic expansion began. Economists said the underlying sales rate appears steady, despite the rule changes causing turbulence last month.

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37 Responses to November Existing Home Sales

  1. grim says:

    More New Jerseyans are going to work than any time in our state’s history.

    Overall total yes, with 4,300,900 employed in November (preliminary data) which surpasses the previous peak set in 2008, which was 4,264,000 employed.

    However, this includes both public and private sector jobs.

    Looking at private sector only, the previous peak was set in 2007, 4,076,900 employed. As of November, the private sector number was only at 4,037,300.

    Which means we need 39,600 additional private sector jobs to surpass the old peak.

    Given the increase in jobs, it may take another full year to regain private sector employment. Even then we are not considering the significant increase in labor force (nearly 100,000) since the previous peaks. It’s plausible that it might take 2-3 additional years once we recover peak, to account for the labor market increase.

  2. grim says:

    Congratulations to Rochelle Park based Orbcomm for getting all 11 satellites in orbit along with SpaceX, who, by the way, STUCK THE LANDING. Who says NJ isn’t a leader in telecommunications?

  3. grim says:

    From the Times Record Herald:

    Montreign Resort Casino gets state license in Sullivan County

    On a day many in Sullivan County feared would never arrive, the Montreign Resort Casino at Adelaar received its state license Monday to operate a casino in the county.

    The New York State Gaming Commission made it official at 2:39 p.m., with several county and state officials crowding the state meeting room a few blocks from Grand Central Terminal.

    The license means that Montreign can obtain financing and issue contracts to start construction of the casino on 1,700 acres just outside Monticello. It can now hire the 1,000 or more workers needed to build it, although it has already begun extensive site and excavation work on the site just off Route 17 Exit 106. The license requires Montreign to open within two years.

    Since Gaming Commission Executive Director Rob Williams said construction must start no later than March 16, 2016, that puts Montreign on track to open in early 2018, at the latest.

    “You should see foundation work starting early in January, unless the tundra approaches,” said Manny Pearlman, chairman of the board of directors of Empire Resorts, which will run Montreign.

    “Christmas has come early to the Catskills,” added Charlie Degliomini, executive vice president of Empire.

    Even though the casino seemed like a sure thing since last December, when the state chose Montreign as the only casino in the Hudson Valley/Catskills region, many in the county were skeptical this day would ever come, especially because Sullivan has been jilted by more casino schemes than most anyone can count.

  4. grim says:

    Let’s see – congested 3 hour ride down the parkway on the weekend for a few hours at a shit casino? Or an easy 1 and a half hour ride through the beautiful mountains to a brand new resort?

    I’m sure the chatter from over the river provoked NY to act swiftly.

  5. Juice Box says:

    The guy behind the new C*A*S*I*N*O in Monticello, he owns 70% of the Empire Symbol NYNY

    http://www.forbes.com/profile/lim-kok-thay/

  6. chicagofinance says:

    Day At The Office (ragnar Edition):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b50F-TDKZ9I

  7. syncmaster says:

    Down…by a lot.

    Damnit. I should’ve listed sooner.

  8. Grim [4];

    They’ve been talking about putting a [gaming hall] to revive the old Borscht Belt for decades. The Oneidas behind Turning Stone near Syracuse have long been angling for a license on a second operation in the Catskills; I think they even acquired a site. Under the Federal Indian Regs they were allowed to ‘trade’ reservations, so the new site would became their reservation too, with all the gaming exemptions that came with it. Its the same kind of deal the Shinnec0cks wanted to pull in the Hamptons. Both still needed a deal with the state, however.

    I’ve long read speculation about rehabing the Nevele, etc. Kitsch is one thing, but new construction is the way to go.

  9. Grim says:

    We camped next to Nevele for years.

  10. That c@sino should have Rickles as their grand opening act.

  11. D-FENS says:

    anybody ever figure out what happened to JJ?

  12. Ben says:

    anybody ever figure out what happened to JJ?

    I heard he bought a Wu-Tang album for 2 million.

  13. jcer says:

    13, Jail?

  14. JJ finished his Tom Vu video real estate course and is now flipping condos on LI South Shore.

  15. 1987 Condo says:

    JJ- I “assume” he may be in between jobs….

  16. Hughesrep says:

    Didn’t JJ disappear right around the Ashley Madison hack? His email may not have been the only thing hacked.

  17. Hughesrep says:

    The Monticello ca$ino was a dunk. Underground work was started this summer. I helped a couple of my customers bid on the underground pipe. Contractor was out of Westchester and has been on site since May.

  18. 1987 Condo says:

    JJ- seemed more timed with junk bond rout?

  19. Libturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    I heard his jimbrowski got stuck inside a Vidalia and he’s been hospitalized ever since.

  20. yome says:

    WTI trading in parity with Brent. I remember a $22 spread during the height of oil price.And they said oil will be cheaper when we start exporting our sweet crude and import heavy crude. tsk tsk

  21. Whose Twitter feed did you copy that from, yome?

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Oil speculators are buying options contracts that will only pay out if crude drops to as low as $15 a barrel next year, the latest sign some investors expect an even deeper slump in energy prices.
    The bearish wagers come as OPEC’s effective scrapping of output limits, Iran’s anticipated return to the market and the resilience of production from countries such as Russia raise the prospect of a prolonged global oil glut.
    “We view the oversupply as continuing well into next year,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a note on Tuesday, adding there’s a risk oil prices would fall to $20 a barrel to force production shutdowns if mild weather continues to damp demand.
    The bearish outlook has prompted investors to buy put options — which give them the right to sell at a predetermined price and time — at strike prices of $30, $25, $20 and even $15 a barrel, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange and the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is currently trading at about $36 a barrel.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-22/extreme-oil-bears-bet-on-25-20-and-even-15-a-barrel-in-2016

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume, screwing around at work says:

    [19] hughes

    “Didn’t JJ disappear right around the Ashley Madison hack? His email may not have been the only thing hacked.”

    I didn’t put those two together but I think you may be right.

  24. leftwing says:

    Oil with a 20 handle should be a done deal next year. sixty four thousand dollar question is if the stock indices will continue to move in synch with it.

  25. 1987 Condo says:

    Peak Oil? Peak Food? Peak Temp?

  26. Bystander says:

    Peak JJ too. Miss his posts.

  27. Maybe JJ got nicked by the Ashley Madison thing. Of course a real man like him wouldn’t need a website, right? I don’t have my finger on the pulse of the LI zeitgeist like I used to when I lived there, but surely if JJ had suffered a fate like the (now) former Superintendent of Randolph Schools.

    Or maybe Pumpkin is merely the latest incarnation of the personality behind JJ.

  28. Juice Box says:

    schlonged….

    Trump is just getting warmed up too, gloves will be off soon enough.

  29. Juice Box says:

    JJ tripped on his schlong and fell onto the LIRR tracks. RIP JJ.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Guy agrees with me. Stop worrying about bubbles for a while.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-12-22/where-are-the-bubbles-in-the-u-s-markets-

  31. Essex says:

    32. Yeah. Well he’s got the angry white guy vote. We’ll see how that goes.

  32. Fabius Maximus says:

    I have a cabin on the Shawangunk Ridge about 15mins from Monticello. Its a fantastic area. One thing of note is that when Hillary was NY Senator, the pork was passed to upgrade NY RT17 to Interstate Standards. The route from Woodbury commons to Monticello is pretty much complete,

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