Underwater borrowers continue to decline

From Corelogic:

From MarketWatch:

Another 1 million homes regained positive equity in 2015, CoreLogic says

An additional million homeowners regained equity in 2015, bringing the number of mortgaged properties with equity to 91.5% or 46.3 million, CoreLogic said.

There were still 4.3 million properties with negative equity in the fourth quarter, representing an increase of 2.9% compared to the third quarter. But that was 19.1% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The 8.5% share of underwater mortgages at the end of 2015 compares to a peak of 26% in the fourth quarter of 2009.

The five states with the highest percentage of negative equity properties accounted for 30.8% of the negative equity across the county, but only 16.5% of outstanding mortgages.

Borrower equity rose by $682 billion in the fourth quarter compared to the final quarter of 2014, about an 11.5% increase. That was the 13th-straight quarter of double-digit equity growth, CoreLogic said.

The increase in equity reflects rising home prices, but also “continued deleveraging,” CoreLogic said. Homeowners are paying more toward their mortgages and taking out less equity than they have in the past.

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63 Responses to Underwater borrowers continue to decline

  1. grim says:

    For those wondering what the MSA is:

    New York–Jersey City–White Plains, NY–NJ
    Kings County, NY
    Queens County, NY
    New York County, NY
    Bronx County, NY
    Richmond County, NY
    Westchester County, NY
    Bergen County, NJ
    Hudson County, NJ
    Middlesex County, NJ
    Monmouth County, NJ
    Ocean County, NJ
    Passaic County, NJ
    Rockland County, NY
    Orange County, NY

  2. grim says:

    NJ Statewide down to 11.6% of mortgaged properties, which represents about 2/3rds of all properties. This translates to about 7.7% of all properties.

    This is down from 14.3% two years ago, and 13.1% last year.

  3. Are CoreLogic’s numbers based on current payoff balance? For example, your typical Morris County home occupier who is 5-8 years behind on his/her mortgage, are some of those residences now above water (on paper)?

  4. grim says:

    Based on current LTV – where the V an estimate.

  5. grim says:

    The methodology is solid.

    The amount of equity for each property is determined by comparing the estimated current value of the property against the mortgage debt outstanding (MDO). If the MDO is greater than the estimated value, then the property is determined to be in a negative equity position. If the estimated value is greater than the MDO, then the property is determined to be in a positive equity position. The data is first generated at the property level and aggregated to higher levels of geography. CoreLogic data includes 49 million properties with a mortgage, which accounts for more than 85 percent of all mortgages in the U.S. CoreLogic uses its public record data as the source of the MDO, which includes both first-mortgage liens and second liens, and is adjusted for amortization and home equity utilization in order to capture the true level of MDO for each property. The calculations are not based on sampling, but rather on the full data set to avoid potential adverse selection due to sampling. The current value of the property is estimated using a suite of proprietary CoreLogic valuation techniques, including valuation models and
    the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI). Only data for mortgaged residential properties that have a current estimated value is included. There are several states or jurisdictions where the public record, current value or mortgage coverage is thin. These instances account for fewer than 5 percent of the total U.S. population.

  6. GOP'sbroken (the good one) says:

    @nypost

    Today’s cover:

    First Chris Christie – now Ben Carson reportedly will endorse Donald Trump

  7. Holy crap are there a ton a of foreclosures going down in Morris County! I’ve been using the site for years, which lists the scheduled sheriff sales by date. There are 60 listings per page and usually you have to go to page 5 for the foreclosures that just occurred( so 60 x 4 = 240 foreclosures that are scheduled for a near future date). I just checked and now you have to go to page 12 to get to the 3/10 sales that just occurred. 60 x 11 = ~660 scheduled foreclosures for the next few months! That’s like 50/week!

  8. grim says:

    It looks like somebody stopped updating the statuses on the list.

  9. joyce says:

    “If it can reach the Supremes then in its simplest form, it goes back to the Framers.”

    Do you want to rethink this post after a good night’s sleep?

  10. Mike says:

    Homes near Targets worth more than homes near Walmarts

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/homes-near-targets-almost-twice-130300070.html

  11. grim says:

    You know your town is going to shit when a Metro PCS opens up.

  12. 30 year realtor says:

    #7 & 8 – Morris County and other North Jersey counties are experiencing very high sale volume. In most counties there are about 25 sales held every week. Lots of urban crap being sold but also a sprinkling of suburban.

    Attendance at sales has increased dramatically since the last quarter of 2015. Very competitive environment. New faces showing up every week and bidding.

  13. BTW, why are pre-paid, or pay-as-you-go, plans cheaper and more flexible than anything else? I have a Sprint phone (texts blocked, no data) $45/month. I have a Verizon iPad with 1GB data that I can use as a hot spot $20/month. That’s all I need, because I don’t travel much away from work/home networks. So my 13 yo wins an MIT web design contest and gets an unlocked Google Nexus 5 as prize. I let her use it Wi-Fi only for several months, she’s never had a phone or plan. I finally bite the bullet and give her a T-Mobile sim for her 14th birthday. $30 pre-paid, 100 minutes talk, unlimited texts, unlimited data, first 5GB at LTE. I’m thinking of buying something cheap like an unlocked Nexus 5X and getting the same plan and cut down from $65/month to $30/month myself. The threat I hold over my daughter’s head is that if she misbehaves or her grades drop I’ll cut her down to 10 minutes of voice for $3/month. No data, no texts.

  14. walking bye says:

    Grim, does core logic actually look at the current month MDO from the bank or is it basing it on public record filed when the loan was taken out? So if someone has prepaid principle over several years are they capturing that?

  15. walking bye says:

    Original Expat -The reason is no one pays for their phone plan anymore. It goes on the monthly corp card.

  16. Juice Box says:

    From yesterdaym Conductors etc.

    Back in the day the Railhead bar in Hoboken is where you would find those conductors and bus drivers between trips. They would sneak in gather there for a quick drink or two before heading out on their next run. There was one a WC Fields type whose nose looked like bag of haggis. That guy is not sunning himself in Florida, he is pushing up daisies.

    The bad ole days where the construction workers, public service employees and general union workers would gather in the local bars during the day for some liquid lunch is almost over even my cousin a hardened carpenter who spent the better part of the last decade working on One World Trade Center who’s bulging liver could have it’s own zip code stopped drinking at lunch time due to the crackdowns.

  17. Juice Box says:

    Question.

    Does anyone here tip Uber drivers?

  18. Fabius Maximus says:

    #9 Joyce

    No I would like you to tell me why you think it is wrong. Hopefully without pithy remarks and/or personal attacks.

  19. joyce says:

    I personally blame James Madison for the fruit vs vegetable fiasco of 1893.

  20. #13 expat

    I use Tracfones for my kids, even my youngest (7yo). $7 a month and a replacement phone is $10. It has a basic browser when they need it and texts are cheap. Most of the times they are on their IPads talking on Skype and that is on the Optimum hot spots anyway.

    It’s a basic service, but I can contact them and they can contact me and that’s what it’s for.

  21. joyce says:

    Why don’t you just admit you incorrectly conflated the presidential election process and the individual party nomination processes and call it a day?

  22. Statler Waldorf says:

    So Rubio agrees with Trump, but you would never know it by the media’s bizarre twisting of what Rubio actually said during the debate

    RUBIO: “Islam has a major problem on its hands. It has a significant percentage of its adherents, particular in the Sunni faith but also in the Shia, who have been radicalized. And are willing to fly planes into a building and kill innocent people. There is no doubt about that.”

    http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1603/10/se.01.html

  23. joyce says:

    24
    Legal process; blame the framers of the constitution for Montclair’s negligence

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Give me a break. Look at the nj home price index graph that juice posted and go to max. From 1975 to 2015, if you take away the bubble in early 2000′s, the prices have been pretty damn stable. There has not been extreme rises and falls.

    Look at this chart for northern nj. Pretty got damn stable. Not some crazy roller coaster ride. Dips are healthy after an enormous bubble, as long as they are not extreme drops. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ATNHPIUS35614Q

    Essex says:
    March 10, 2016 at 9:36 pm
    35. ur outta ur f’in mind

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Now go look at sf. Insane roller coaster ride. Nothing stable about it. Insane drops. https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SFXRSA

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Now look at Texas. I would not go near this real estate market. They haven’t even had a correction. Wait till that downward curve comes, it’s not going to be pretty.
    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TXSTHPI

    Take a look at Florida. Roller coaster ride. Dips are like going off a cliff.

    https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FLSTHPI

  27. #20 joyce

    Exactly and that same court gave us “Separate but equal”

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Some people have said, ‘Well, why would you get behind a man like Donald Trump?” Carson said in the ballroom of Trump’s oceanfront Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, four days ahead of the state’s key primary.

    “There are two different Donald Trumps,” Carson continued. “There’s the one you see on the stage, and there’s the one who’s very cerebral, sits there and considers things very carefully. You can have a very good conversation with him. And that’s the Donald Trump that you’re going to start seeing more and more of right now. ”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-11/ben-carson-endorses-donald-trump

  29. joyce says:

    What the hell are you talking about?

    What you apparently don’t realize is that you’ve implied that everything is to be blamed on the framers. Anything can result in a lawsuit if someone so desires. All of them could potentially reach the USSC, technically. So, do you see now the idiocy of your initial statement? (of course you don’t)

  30. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Pumpkin. Montclair Multi. Bought for 480 in private sale in 2004. Was worth $625 in 2006. Was worth $325 in 2011. Is worth $500 in in 2016. Sure this rollercoaster is not Kingdom Ka, but it’s not the Runaway Train either. More like Rolling Thunder. All numbers are factual based on realtor estimates.

    Where do I stand?
    Put down 96K in 2004 with a 30-year mortgage of 384K. Sunk about 125K cash since. So 221K in. Refinanced three times chasing interest rates down and shortening loan from 30 to 20 and am now in a 15-year with about 10 years left (saved tons doing this). Still owe 223K of 384K loan. If I sell place today at 500K I make 56K in 12 years on a 221K investment. Had I invested my 221K into an S&P index fund, I’d have made 880K.

    Real estate is a sucky investment. You can get lucky no doubt. Same with gold.

  31. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    I don’t have the constitution to listen to all of this framer talk.

  32. yome says:

    Next announcement is getting out of the race?

    Florida Senator Marco Rubio made a bid to try and block Donald Trump from winning the Republican presidential nomination, telling his supporters in Ohio to give their votes to John Kasich next Tuesday.

    “Clearly John Kasich has a better chance of stopping Donald Trump in Ohio than I do,” Rubio said during an event Friday in West Palm Beach, Florida. He said he hadn’t consulted with Kasich, Ohio’s governor, about the gambit, nor has he spoken to Texas Senator Ted Cruz about forming a so-called unity ticket aimed at stopping Trump.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-03-11/rubio-says-supporters-in-ohio-should-vote-for-john-kasich

  33. #22/31 joyce

    These are linked. I think you are saying that I am wrong to bring primaries into this as Article Two only covers the main election. But in article two the framers ask the states for electoral delegates to vote on a candidate who is a citizen of a certain age. Now how the states deliver those two things, has been litigated repeatedly. All those cases trace a thread back to Article two, Article one for Equal protection,
    Bill of rights for freedom of association, the 14th amendment and and on and on and on. Every case decided has to tie itself onto a thread. As most decisions in the US are based on settled law, if you want to overturn a decision you have to follow a thread back to try and correct the thread. If you get all the way back to the Framers, you have to ask if they got it right, if you get back to the Supreme, you have a harder battle as the Framers mad them sort of infallible. Then you have to ask did the framers get that right.

    So it’s not blame, it’s asking if the decisions show the system is broken. I say it is. The decisions are so convoluted. As you said before, why can’t judges come to the same conclusion, given the same case. The short answer is that they followed different threads.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I like that….rolling thunder. Def a good roller coaster to describe the nj market.

    Real estate is a much safer investment compared to other avenues of investment, but you usually don’t get the returns that you would get in these other realms of investing. I truly believe to hit it out of the park in any investment requires a lot of luck. Sure, you have to have self discipline, capital, smarts, and a good work ethic, but you also need to get lucky. A lot of it is being in the right place at the right time.

    Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary’s Cankle fluid. says:
    March 11, 2016 at 12:41 pm
    Pumpkin. Montclair Multi. Bought for 480 in private sale in 2004. Was worth $625 in 2006. Was worth $325 in 2011. Is worth $500 in in 2016. Sure this rollercoaster is not Kingdom Ka, but it’s not the Runaway Train either. More like Rolling Thunder. All numbers are factual based on realtor estimates.

    Where do I stand?
    Put down 96K in 2004 with a 30-year mortgage of 384K. Sunk about 125K cash since. So 221K in. Refinanced three times chasing interest rates down and shortening loan from 30 to 20 and am now in a 15-year with about 10 years left (saved tons doing this). Still owe 223K of 384K loan. If I sell place today at 500K I make 56K in 12 years on a 221K investment. Had I invested my 221K into an S&P index fund, I’d have made 880K.

    Real estate is a sucky investment. You can get lucky no doubt. Same with gold.

  35. rentinginNJ says:

    Stu

    Thanks for the advice on the mortgage broker. We just signed the first round of paperwork this morning

  36. #33 Lib

    With your constitution, I would suggest a big book of Supreme Court opinions, that you can read or utilize if the roll runs out!

  37. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Ha.

    Great Renting. He’s no nonsense. Write down the number he gave you at the initial meeting. It will be the same number on the HUD. Carl’s a Salt of the Earth kind of guy. I expected a shyster when I first met him back in 2004. He ended up being so fair, it was scary. He even set me up with a HELOC, (which he made zero by doing) that would have been difficult at the time for me to get it as I just refinanced two loans. Hope you managed an impossible rate!!!

  38. walking bye says:

    I’m still seeing downward trend in Bergen County market. Lots of Homes listing for $900 k dropping down to mid $700’s. At or below 2003’s levels. Prices are holding with homes under $500k range.

    I mentioned this the other day. How come no realtors will work for a cash commission based on how much they could lower the price from the seller? Each time I make a low ball offer none of them are interested in taking it. I get the same story of this house has multiple offers, only to see it lowered 2 months latter. What do they have to lose? I would gladly buy them a $4000 brown bag sandwich for the deal.

  39. walking bye says:

    Best deal I got was the realtor willing to kick back $3000 to me if I closed the deal with him. Not so great though..

  40. joyce says:

    Thank you for responding on topic.

    The answer to your question below is wrong. They reach different conclusions because they want to… ignoring/following precedents and other considerations to fit their predetermined opinion.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 11, 2016 at 1:53 pm
    #22/31 joyce

    “As you said before, why can’t judges come to the same conclusion, given the same case. The short answer is that they followed different threads.”

  41. Anon E. Moose, back to basics says:

    Joyce [43];

    The answer to your question below is wrong. They reach different conclusions because they want to… ignoring/following precedents and other considerations to fit their predetermined opinion.

    Joyce, you’ve accurately described a leftist, “Living Constitution” ideology. I highly doubt John Roberts had a predetermined objective to pervert the law, basic logic, and even the English language, in order to same Obamacare — not once, but twice.

  42. 30 year realtor says:

    #41 walking bye – downward trend in Bergen County real estate? What year is this? Think you missed the boat. Sellers overpricing houses happens in both good markets and bad. Overpricing doesn’t mean anything one way or the other on the strength of the market. Some people will never be satisfied. Then again there are people like you, lowballers. The overpriced never sell and the lowballers never buy.

  43. Bystander says:

    #45 30 yr,

    While I am sure overpricing has and always will be a problem, I wish someone had the ability to show a total regional or county view of historical OLP vs. sale price. I would think the last 10 years would be laughable. As someone who bought last year, I tried to keep track of 20 or so homes that I saw toward end of the process. At least half ended up 20% off their OLP. I can’t believe that level of overpricing has ever occurred previously. Large and meaningful analysis on topic is probably impossible given relistings. Funny, I remember argument with my realtor about whether it was a seller’s market since I lost two bids. She sent out sheets and analysis showing sale to list price ratios for all houses sold in the area last few months. It was like 98% at the time. Since I was offering about 10% below on the houses, she thought she had ammunition. She calls me and and my first words to her “Great. Is this based on OLP?”. She could barely just muster a “no.”

  44. walking bye says:

    Bystander I also think at least in the Pas Valley of Bergen there is a larger migration of older boomers moving out. I looked at a 1.2 m listing for a home originally bought in 2007 for $1.7. To me that is a downward trending number. I thought it was attractively priced, but had a few negatives to bite.

  45. Young Buck says:

    40. Lib, who’s your mortgage guy? I thought it was Bob @ First Valley Funding. Or maybe that was Clot’s recommendation…

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m being sincere when I ask this. Why in the world would you use 2007 bubble pricing in accessing downward trends? You think those prices are useful for anything orther than determining it was bought in a bubble? Like 30 year alluded too, you are either a real seller or buyer, everyone else falls under complete waste of time. That’s why I would rail on fast Eddie. Knew his type well. He would show unrealistic homes for sale that have been sitting for months. Those houses were never going to sell and should never be used as justification that the housing market is overpriced. 2012 was the down market and people like fast Eddie wasted opportunities because they were focused on all the wrong homes that were way overpriced. He thought that something cheap would just fall in his lap because the real estate market was in a down market. Nothing falls in your lap, you must work for those deals. You have a ton of sharks out there looking for a deal. That’s why fast Eddie thinks realtors are not worth paying, he has no idea how the game is played and the role of a realtor in finding a deal. The realtors knew the fast Eddie and bystander types and avoid them at all costs. If you are a good realtor, you will pick up on these type of characters fast, and stay far away, unless you like wasting your time.

    walking bye says:
    March 11, 2016 at 6:27 pm
    Bystander I also think at least in the Pas Valley of Bergen there is a larger migration of older boomers moving out. I looked at a 1.2 m listing for a home originally bought in 2007 for $1.7. To me that is a downward trending number. I thought it was attractively priced, but had a few negatives to bite.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know the sellers you hate so much? That’s you in 20-30 years. The lowball buyers who think every property is overpriced become the overpriced sellers of the future. True story.

    Bystander says:
    March 11, 2016 at 5:57 pm
    #45 30 yr,

    While I am sure overpricing has and always will be a problem, I wish someone had the ability to show a total regional or county view of historical OLP vs. sale price. I would think the last 10 years would be laughable. As someone who bought last year, I tried to keep track of 20 or so homes that I saw toward end of the process. At least half ended up 20% off their OLP. I can’t believe that level of overpricing has ever occurred previously. Large and meaningful analysis on topic is probably impossible given relistings. Funny, I remember argument with my realtor about whether it was a seller’s market since I lost two bids. She sent out sheets and analysis showing sale to list price ratios for all houses sold in the area last few months. It was like 98% at the time. Since I was offering about 10% below on the houses, she thought she had ammunition. She calls me and and my first words to her “Great. Is this based on OLP?”. She could barely just muster a “no.”

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    51- what does it matter what the previous sale price or olp is? What matters is the market pricing. You need to focus on the area you are looking in and understand what the going rate is for that style of home in that area. Your thoughts have nothing to do with the price, the current market dictates price. Faster you understand this, faster you will truly understand real estate pricing and know what overpriced or underpriced truly mean.

  49. Joyce says:

    Moose
    I hope and others here get past the faux dichotomy one day. Yes, one can point to isolated examples or fringe issues to illustrate a difference, at times, but the government as a whole ultimately get in lock step for all the important issues.

    Anon E. Moose, back to basics says:
    March 11, 2016 at 4:55 pm
    Joyce [43];

    The answer to your question below is wrong. They reach different conclusions because they want to… ignoring/following precedents and other considerations to fit their predetermined opinion.

    Joyce, you’ve accurately described a leftist, “Living Constitution” ideology. I highly doubt John Roberts had a predetermined objective to pervert the law, basic logic, and even the English language, in order to same Obamacare — not once, but twice

  50. libturd rotting away in St. Barnabas still says:

    Buck,

    That is Clot’s boy. I use Karl Nielsen. Mortgage Master. Try them both. Go with the cheaper rate.

  51. Fabius Maximus says:

    #43 Joyce

    While personal bias will come into it on some part. Each decision has to be backed by some tenet of law. Every justice (in the lower courts) has to grab a thread.
    Two sides come in, one presents a thread, and the other side a cable, the Justice can still grab the thread. The opinion, has to describe why.

  52. Fabius Maximus says:

    #44 Moose

    Honestly, I would expect more from you.

    Was Rehnquist in Bush vs Gore, effectively doing the same thing? Does that show, the actual difference between, the Supreme and the lower courts. The lower courts are bound on what they can do, where the Supreme can take any decision, to any place they want?

    balance that gainats

  53. 30 year realtor says:

    Most towns and price ranges in North Jersey have now recovered to close to peak pricing. There are some soft spots by price or geography but they are becoming fewer and further between. The soft spots are typically urban or high priced properties in communities with below average school systems. For example, next week I plan to bid on a property in Totowa that sold for $1,900,000 in 2007. Likely worth under 1.5 today. The most desirable communities in Bergen in the most popular price ranges are now ahead of peak pricing.

  54. Joyce says:

    ” The opinion, has to describe why”

    This is where the twisted and tortured logic comes into play using past decisions to match their preconceived outcome.

  55. 30 year realtor says:

    Some exceptions to the rule on desirable towns are Upper Saddle River, Saddle River and Franklin Lakes. Homes in the top 10% to 20% of the price structure in these towns are still lagging. This also applies to Ramsey and Mahwah but only for exceptionally high value properties.

  56. walking bye says:

    Ok thanks 30 yr realtor. Thats where Im looking. My problem is I see prices holding for months on end, and a sudden price drop and its gone. Not sure if I will bite or just pay to send the kids to go to school there. If I send the kids there on my own dime to Im looking at$200k for HS at Northern. I rather buy something and sell out once the kids graduate but not in a hurry.

  57. Hughesrep says:

    I forgot my iPad the other day, in a diner for a late breakfast the owner gave me the Post. Breakfast was great, the Post is just terrible.

    Nothing on Drumpf in Chicago? Think he set it up there to incite. No way he would have scheduled there without a plan 1A.

    Thirty arrests, five injuries? After he cancelled? Like the first inning of a Phillies rainout.

  58. Hughesrep says:

    Talked to my brother in Columbus today. He told me virtually the only commercials on tv this week were political commercials.

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