NJ 2015 Jobs Revision Surprise

From the Record:

NJ’s 2015 job creation was better than first reported, but state lost 14,100 jobs in January

New Jersey employers created 81,500 jobs last year, even more than the 65,200 originally reported, to make 2015’s employment gains the most robust since 1999, state labor officials reported Monday.

“The numbers show that the labor market and economy are much stronger than we had thought,” said James Hughes, a Rutgers University economist.

In contrast to that upbeat report, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development also announced that New Jersey lost 14,100 jobs in January, led by 10,100 jobs sliced from the generally well-paid professional and business services sector.

Even with January’s job losses, the state’s unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent for the month, down from 4.8 percent in December and below the U.S. rate of 4.9 percent. This was a sharp reversal of the pattern over the past five years, when New Jersey’s jobless rate clocked in above the national rate almost every month.

Charles Steindel, a Ramapo College economist and former chief economist in the Christie administration, called the 2015 job gains “a very encouraging number,” reflecting 2 percent job growth in a state of about 4 million workers.

“It says the state’s economy is actually growing at a reasonable clip,” he said.

“We actually outpaced the nation in 2015; New Jersey’s private-sector employment rose 2.5 percent, while the nation’s rose 2.2 percent,” said Hughes. “That’s the first time since the 1990s that New Jersey grew faster than the nation.”

Steindel said the January job losses may reflect weather patterns — especially mild weather in December that allowed more people to continue working outdoors, only to be sidelined by more wintry conditions in January, when a blizzard hit.

Hughes suggested the January job losses may be a statistical anomaly; revised January numbers are expected next week.

“We can’t take any one month to predict either a boom or a bust,” he said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

77 Responses to NJ 2015 Jobs Revision Surprise

  1. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Boom! NJ job market took off

    New Jersey’s job market, creaking and crawling for the past 15 years, found another gear in 2015, growing at its fastest rate since the high-tech boom of the late 1990s, the government reported Monday.

    But before the Garden State could rest easy, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said New Jersey inexplicably lost 14,100 jobs in January.

    By the time the number-crunching was done, New Jersey’s unemployment rate was at 4.5 percent, its lowest level since November 2007 and lower than the nation’s overall jobless rate.

    Highlights from Monday’s report:

    New Jersey added 81,500 jobs in 2015 — a gain of 83,600 private-sector jobs and a loss of 2,100 public-sector jobs. It was better than initial estimates of 65,200 new jobs. And it was the most since 1999, when the state added 107,100 jobs.

    The unemployment rate during the year fell from 6.4 percent to 4.8 percent, the steepest drop in the nation.

    New Jersey’s private-sector job growth of 2.5 percent was faster than the nation’s private-sector job growth of 2.2 percent, Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes said.

  2. grim says:

    Do we see both Rubio and Kasich gone today?

  3. D-FENS says:

    Senate Passes Bateman, Kyrillos Bill Creating School District Regionalization Task ForceMarch 14, 2016 Contact: Emily Everson / (609) 847-3600

    http://www.senatenj.com/index.php/kyrillos/senate-passes-bateman-kyrillos-bill-creating-school-district-regionalization-task-force/26157

    “In a state where there are more school districts than municipalities, regionalization has enormous potential to bolster educational programs and reduce New Jersey’s nation-high property tax burden,” Senator Bateman (R-16) said. “Exploring solutions to create efficient, sustainable school systems will help us understand how we can best serve the growing needs of our students and communities.”

  4. D-FENS says:

    When did we start calling people who incite riots “protestors”?

  5. grim says:

    Disband both parties.

  6. D-FENS says:

    History Rhymes?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBKDF7H4hyo

    “You’ve created an atmosphere where nobody wants to listen”

  7. grim says:

    Christie Stockholm Syndrome?

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Told you, don’t count jersey out. It was going through a decade of change. Location, along with the highly educated population, is too valuable to ever write off Jersey for dead. Wage inflation is right around the corner and so is the 202o’s boom era. Let’s go!!

    “The unemployment rate during the year fell from 6.4 percent to 4.8 percent, the steepest drop in the nation.”

  9. hughesrep says:

    5

    Think it was right around the time we started calling people who sucker punch others as “supporters”.

  10. hughesrep says:

    Kasich squeaks out a win in Ohio and we get a brokered convention. The R convention is in Cleveland, and Jhonny Manziel’s father throws the deciding vote. If there is one thing Cleveland is good at it is $hitshows.

  11. D-FENS says:

    12 – Christie’s move to endorse Trump anticipates this…he would control 51 votes giving him lots of leverage for political deal making…

  12. Juice Box says:

    re # 9 – more like this drawing Grim.

    http://tinyurl.com/zmh5hn7

  13. D-FENS says:

    https://youtu.be/r7e6gLht6OQ

    Anon and Ottoman…don’t miss…be sure to watch on Netflix…

  14. Juice Box says:

    Why would the Ohio voters choose a 4th place candidate over even Cruz? I don’t see Kasich winning in his home state, he hasn’t won a primary or caucus this year, just like Rubio they both will be on the sidelines soon, unless something bad happens, and seeing what the “protestors” have been saying lately I would not be surprised if we have another Bobby Kennedy.

  15. Juice Box says:

    re # 16 – Yome – How many members of the NJ Congressional delegation attended the Funeral? Isn’t Booker out campaigning for Hillary?

  16. grim says:

    If Christie went to the funeral, he would be criticized for politicizing the death of an officer.

    Since when do democrats care about dead cops anyway?

  17. We’re two for two. I couldn’t believe I was actually a little shaky entering the credentials online to find out. Glad that’s over with.

    Congratulations!

    We are pleased to inform you that your child is invited to Boston Latin School for grade 07, beginning September 2016.

    The official invitation letter will be mailed to your home address within one week. The invitation letter will include your child’s ISEE scores, GPA, and candidate rank information.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    clot…..crank up the ol’ sauseeezh maker…..
    J.P. Morgan Readies Mortgage-Backed Deal
    Deal is J.P. Morgan’s first since the financial crisis involving mortgages entirely owned by the bank

  19. chicagofinance says:
  20. Juice Box says:

    They aren’t making sausages just yet. I’ll wake up when the CDO squared sausages come back.

    Seems Dodd Frank rule making is finally getting settled, that is after the lobbyists from the industry weighed in.

    From the Article.

    “J.P. Morgan is using the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s safe harbor, which isolates them from the assets and protects investors if the mortgages go bad.”

    Summary Bank goes under and FDIC takes over, FDIC cannot take the assets.

    “The Final Rule revises certain provisions of 12 C.F.R. 360.6 (the “Securitization Safe Harbor”). The Securitization Safe Harbor sets forth criteria under which, in its capacity as a receiver or conservator of an insured depository institution, the FDIC will not, in the exercise of its authority to repudiate contracts, recover or reclaim financial assets transferred in connection with securitization transactions.”

    https://www.fdic.gov/news/board/2015/2015-10-22_notice_sum_c_fr.pdf

  21. Juice Box says:

    Sausage maker goes to trial.

    Ex-Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd loses bid to toss trial.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/sec-fanniemae-mudd-idUSL2N1691CH

    Former Fannie Mae Chief Executive Daniel Mudd has lost his bid to dismiss a lawsuit by U.S. securities regulators accusing him of concealing the mortgage finance agency’s exposure to risky loans that fueled the 2008 financial crisis.

    U.S. District Judge Paul Crotty in Manhattan on Monday ruled the Securities and Exchange Commission could take Mudd to trial over claims he concealed $441 billion of risky loans before Fannie Mae’s September 2008 government seizure.

  22. Ragnar says:

    Chifi, 22
    That subway station is a good example of the seen and unseen of paying more than a market wage for labor. Undoubtedly due to the high pay of such crews and connected construction companies, they are living a middle-class or better lifestyle. But due to the cushy salaries and strong bargaining power over the buyer, they put less actual work, planning, and materials into that job than they could have. So while the Ottos of the world talk about the consumption of those highly paid unionized construction crews “boosting the economy”, the public that paid for this station got ripped off, they will be consuming less, they will suffer with a malfunctioning subway station that will continue to have high maintenance and repair expenses. So a few people were paid millions more than they should have been in a real competitive market for construction services, and the public is probably worse off than they should have been, possibly by a billion dollars.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exactly what I talk about with income inequality bringing harm to the economy. The more money gets concentrated in fewer hands, the faster the economy will move towards a frozen state. Current economic system was not made to deal with huge inequality, it will destroy it.

    “Now some European physicists have used such a model to examine a different question: How does a significant change in inequality affect the overall level of exchange? Their study makes use of some fairly abstruse mathematics coming from physics, developed precisely for messy network problems of this kind. What they find is troubling, although not all that surprising — rising inequality tends to undermine exchange.

    Income Inequality

    The reason is quite simple. As inequality gets more pronounced, a larger fraction of the population faces more stringent budget constraints, and the spectrum of possible economic interactions open to them narrows. Fewer people have the wherewithal to engage in economic activity. This mathematical economy actually demonstrates a sharp transition, akin to the abrupt freezing of a liquid, as the level of inequality exceeds a certain threshold. Worryingly, the wealth distribution in the U.S. over the past few decades has been moving ever closer to this critical edge.

    To be sure, the model is far from complete, and can only suggest possibilities. That said, it gets at the intricacies of exchange in a way that traditional macroeconomic models do not. Moreover, the effect of budget constraints on people’s economic capabilities makes intuitive sense. There is every reason to believe that more realistic models would show a similar dynamic, changed only in minor details.

    This inequality mechanism has nothing to do with ordinary recessions and the usual business cycle. Significant changes in the distribution of wealth take place much more slowly — an attribute consistent with what many economists have identified as the different and more profound nature of the current global slump. The concept of secular stagnation that Larry Summers has popularized could have a number of contributing causes, including rising inequality.

    If so, the inequality diagnosis opens up interesting possibilities for policy solutions. The researchers found another interesting effect — a “trickle up” flow of wealth quite different from the usual “trickle down” picture of supply-side economics. In an economy with appreciable inequality, capital tends to flow from those with less to those with more, generating a cascade of transactions along the way. Hence, policy interventions aiming to spur economic activity should work better if they inject money into the system at the lower end, rather than from the top.

    This fits with the argument that quantitative easing — in which central banks purchase securities — may ultimately be misguided. Such a policy is supposed to encourage spending by propping up the prices of stocks and bonds, which tends to boost wealth only at the top end of the distribution. Central bankers might have a more powerful and beneficial effect if they instead injected money directly into the accounts of citizens, who could then use it to pay down debts or spend as they like.

    The idea of such “people’s quantitative easing” is gaining popularity, and for good reason. It would more directly attack the budget constraints holding back the vast number of individuals on whom economic growth depends.”

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-15/the-chilling-math-of-inequality

  24. Juice Box says:

    re #22 – # 25 – re: “real competitive market for construction services”
    Yonkers Construction Co, they are masters at pay to play. Let’s just say Preet Bharara and lots of U.S. Attorneys in the past have been unable to catch them.

  25. Ragnar says:

    Chinese income inequality has been higher than that in the US for years, why did China’s economy grow faster than in the US?
    European income inequality has been lower than that in the US for decades, why have their economies grown more slowly than the US’ over that time period?

    I’m against income inequality to the extent it’s driven by a large group of people being held out of the productive economy and lured into a life of indolent dependence on the government dole. Such people will never be middle income, and the social dynamics and incentive system of the welfare state mean that very few of their children will either. The sooner these people start standing on their own two feet, the sooner their culture of dependency and victim mentality can be replaced by one of upward mobility.

  26. Juice Box says:

    re # 28 – re: “Why did China’s economy grow faster than in the US?”

    You believe their GDP numbers?

    http://fortune.com/2015/12/14/china-fake-economic-data/

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My take would be that the Chinese economy is much younger in the modern sense. They isolated themselves, totally blew up their economy in the 1950’s with the communist revolution, and have had an opportunity for large growth due to these circumstances.

    “Chinese income inequality has been higher than that in the US for years, why did China’s economy grow faster than in the US?
    European income inequality has been lower than that in the US for decades, why have their economies grown more slowly than the US’ over that time period?”

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I agree with this. My problem is that we do not allow for the creation of enough jobs for the sake of efficiency and maximum profit. Need to give people an opportunity to participate in the economy, if they choose not to, then they are on their own, but we must provide for an opportunity to participate. It must be a human right to have an opportunity to work(aka participate in the economy). Provide this right, and there is no need to have a welfare state, you can literally blame laziness and have no remorse for not helping the individual because they did not help themselves.

    “I’m against income inequality to the extent it’s driven by a large group of people being held out of the productive economy and lured into a life of indolent dependence on the government dole. Such people will never be middle income, and the social dynamics and incentive system of the welfare state mean that very few of their children will either. The sooner these people start standing on their own two feet, the sooner their culture of dependency and victim mentality can be replaced by one of upward mobility.”

  29. Grim says:

    Income equality means you have an equal chance to become poor.

    Everyone forgets that part of it.

    The same mechanisms that provide for rapid upward mobility in income, provide for rapid downward mobility in income. No better example than an entrepreneur launching a small business. If you are very successful, income moves up dramatically, if you are not, income moves downward dramatically. How do you prevent the failure of a small business to the extent that the proprietors income is protected? Easy, you don’t allow them the opportunity to form a business, then there is no risk of downward income movement. Is this the right approach?

  30. Funnelcloud says:

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/4801215130001/?intcmp=hpbt1
    Anybody see this video from fox news on the Washington establishment

  31. Funnelcloud says:

    Basically say’s it all for Trump supporters The F*%king arrogance of these jack-asses

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In a capitalist based society, I accept that there will be poor people. It’s a fundamental characteristic of capitalism. What I can not accept is participating in a competitive based economic system in which people are slowly losing their ability to participate by watching their buying power get sucked up in a vacuum by individuals who are focused on extreme efficiency in the profit taking. Think long term consequences of the economy when so much wealth only reaches a few hands. It’s not good for anyone.

    It’s like this; what if a business was able to drive the cost of wages down to 1 dollar an hour for the avg american worker, but maintain their profit growth. How would this impact the economy. You still have the same amount of money in the economy, but the capital is now only in a few hands. How does the economy continue to function based on supply and demand principles? How does business maintain prices with a consumer that has lost it’s buying power? How does the economy maintain the same level of production/growth when the signal for growth (money) has been taken away from the consumer. The consumer wants goods, but has no means to signal to the economy that they demand it. The economic process then becomes like the combination of water and below freezing temperatures, it slowly comes to a halt till it’s completely frozen and no longer functioning.

    Grim says:
    March 15, 2016 at 11:44 am
    Income equality means you have an equal chance to become poor.

    Everyone forgets that part of it.

    The same mechanisms that provide for rapid upward mobility in income, provide for rapid downward mobility in income. No better example than an entrepreneur launching a small business. If you are very successful, income moves up dramatically, if you are not, income moves downward dramatically. How do you prevent the failure of a small business to the extent that the proprietors income is protected? Easy, you don’t allow them the opportunity to form a business, then there is no risk of downward income movement. Is this the right approach?

  33. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    like Bundy? they don’t incite to riots, they actually incite to terrorism.

    but I agree, why are they called “protestors”?

    D-FENS says:
    March 15, 2016 at 7:35 am

    When did we start calling people who incite riots “protestors”?

  34. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    just like freedom means that you are free to die due to lack of universal health care

    Grim says:
    March 15, 2016 at 11:44 am

    Income equality means you have an equal chance to become poor.

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    just like freedom means that you are free to die due to lack of universal health care

    If you’re so concerned, you f.ucking pay for it all. What have you done to help the plight of the unfortunate? What’s you’re solution? How much of your post tax income do you give for the people you supposedly weep for?

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Go ahead, vote for Hillary Clinton, she cares for the common people, right?

  37. Ragnar says:

    Hillary says that the commoners will eat cake when she’s Queen, err, President.

  38. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    grim, where’s my post?

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 15, 2016 at 2:01 pm
    just like freedom means that you are free to die due to lack of universal health care

    If you’re so concerned, you f.ucking pay for it all. What have you done to help the plight of the unfortunate? What’s you’re solution? How much of your post tax income do you give for the people you supposedly weep for?

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume, screwing around at work says:

    Numero Uno, baby!

    http://www.kbb.com/car-reviews-and-news/top-10/best-luxury-suvs-2015/2000011873-6/

    And those fat tires and brawny bumper make it easy to run over proles like anon and otto

  40. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    who would you had me vote for?

    trump?

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 15, 2016 at 2:03 pm
    Go ahead, vote for Hillary Clinton, she cares for the common people, right?

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, screwing around at work says:

    [40] Rags

    Apparently a Kl@n leader endorsed Hillary and Huffpost took him to task for it, calling the reason for the endorsement “idiotic.”

    Apparently this leader endorsed her because “she will do the opposite of what she is promising.”

    Hell, that’s not idiotic. That’s what the smart money is saying!!! The left will find itself under the bus before the Chief Justice puts the bible down!

  42. Comrade Nom Deplume, screwing around at work says:

    [43] anon,

    Why not? All your fellow travelers are doing just that in a strategic vote effort to set him up as the nominee.

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume, screwing around at work says:

    [25]

    “So while the Ottos of the world talk about the consumption of those highly paid unionized construction crews “boosting the economy””

    Heck, those NYC laws are boosting my economy! I just spent the day completing a memo on the NYC living wage rules and how best to deal with an unpaid contribution under this law.

    I can’t wait for Governor Sweeney!!!! It’s all money and no NJ taxes!!!

  44. Ragnar says:

    Trump loves the poorly educated, anon.

  45. D-FENS says:

    Please put all of anon’s posts into moderation.

  46. D-FENS says:

    Letter from Bill Clinton to Kasich, thanking him for his vote for the 1994 assault weapons ban.

    http://michaelbane.blogspot.com/2016/03/john-kasichs-letter-from-bill-clinton.html

  47. GOP'broken (the good one) says:

    catch up later. wifi about to go off, landing back from geneva

    upper class

    D-FENS says:
    March 15, 2016 at 2:29 pm
    Please put all of anon’s posts into moderation

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    landing back from Geneva….

    With your command of the English language, I find that difficult to believe.

  49. D-FENS says:

    The guy criticizes my spelling. WTF?

  50. Ragnar says:

    Hypothesis: Anon actually is a Swiss banker helping the “populists” in North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela launder their money into Soros funds offshore. His cover is that he’s an unemployed, semi-literate loser who re-posts leftist tweets on the internet.

  51. grim says:

    just like freedom means that you are free to die due to lack of universal health care

    Someone needs to pass a law outlawing bacteria and viruses. Can you get your guys on that? Maybe an executive order?

    Did Obama cure cancer yet?

  52. nwnj3 says:

    Looks like the cannon fodder is being packed in, just need the fuze. Hopefully anon is at the front.

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/03/liberal_groups_call_for_mobilization_against_trump.html#incart_river_home

  53. grim says:

    Had a premonition that Trump was non-fatally stabbed and he used it to propel himself into the presidency.

  54. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [42];

    I don’t begrudge it to you if you like it… I’d rather spend less time in the shop than most LR owners seem to. I wouldn’t trust it in those exotic locales they put in their commercials.

  55. Statler Waldorf says:

    Question: is a “job” given to foreign nationals working in the US on temporary work visas counted as someone employed in NJ? There must be a few hundred thousand of those in NJ.

  56. Essex says:

    57. ides of March type stuff

  57. Hughesrep says:

    Christy is always behind him. Et tu Porke?

  58. D-FENS says:

    Christie holding a pressed and tweeting furiously about today’s headline story on njrer

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=vS-4ssQ2ZFY

    Governor Christie: I Will Continue To Say No To Higher Taxes Every Day I Am Governor

  59. Grim says:

    60 – :)

  60. Fabius Maximus says:

    Rubio

    Burning the bus! He11! Yea!

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Despite the fact that Democrats have served in the White House for 16 of the last 24 years, economic inequality is at an all-time high, and the middle class continues to decline. Former Wall Street Journal columnist and author Thomas Frank discusses his latest book Listen, Liberal: Or, Whatever Happened to the Party of the People? which takes a critical look at why the Democratic Party hasn’t done more to advance the values and causes they purportedly stand for, including expanding economic opportunity and fighting for social justice. “

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume, Newspeak Editor says:

    [58] moose

    The MDX came in at No. 1. So far very reliable.

    Land Rover? I’ve learned that British=unreliable and petulant. Wouldn’t drive one unless you gave it to me.

  63. Hughesrep says:

    17

    Juice

    Ohio is three states.

    The top third is an old industrial megalopolis. Detroit to Pittsburgh. Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown. Fed.

    The center of the state is essentially Indiana or Iowa. A few things around Columbus.

    Southern Ohio is Appalachia. Basically just south of Columbus.

  64. Hughesrep says:

    Collectively, they can usually identify a douchebag.

  65. Fabius Maximus says:

    Kasich takes Ohio,

    ####GAMEON!

  66. Fabius Maximus says:

    “” The opinion, has to describe why”

    This is where the twisted and tortured logic comes into play using past decisions to match their preconceived outcome.”\

    So now that we have agreed on where we are, how to you resolve it? How so we move forward?

  67. Splat Mofo says:

    Chi (21)-

    Dr. Frankenstein’s monster is almost alive.

    This will all end in tears.

  68. Splat Mofo says:

    Spent a fine evening watching lacrosse and drinking high-octane IPA. Don’t wanna turn on the elections, don’t care.

    Glad my flirtation with registering to vote and getting interested in this slow-mo shitshow has subsided.

    I am, however, very interested in the escalating violence between Trump thugs and those backed by Soros. Could be the summer of ’68 redux.

    Great good fun!

  69. Splat Mofo says:

    Unlike most on this board, I can remember seeing dads of my friends going to George Wallace rallies with Confederate flags in tow.

    I knew from an early age that politics is all about finding a minority to demonize, then going after them with the all the firepower needed to wipe them off the face of the planet.

    And they say fat, dumb white men are feeling threatened…as if.

  70. Splat Mofo says:

    Rags, save your money. Bridgewater is prolly a better skool than Rutgers Prep.

  71. Libturd at home (Gator in the Childrens Specialized) says:

    Its a hell of a lot cheaper.

  72. Splat Mofo says:

    All NJ private skools do is grade-inflate, coddle rich kids and condition parents into gladly paying extortionate tuitions.

    All the while, overpriced, overrated colleges drool when they see an app from a NJ private skool kid. They know there’s parents (suckers) behind that kid who’ll pay four years of full boat for a shit-smeared piece of sheepskin that tells the world your kid’s been stuffed full of a higher grade of intellectual sewage.

  73. Libturd at home (Gator in the Childrens Specialized) says:

    “All the while, overpriced, overrated colleges drool when they see an app from a NJ private skool kid. They know there’s parents (suckers) behind that kid who’ll pay four years of full boat for a shit-smeared piece of sheepskin that tells the world your kid’s been stuffed full of a higher grade of intellectual sewage.”

    Yup! I can think of a lot of other things to spend your money on. Like me!

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