Jed Kolko drops the bomb on the urbanization myth

From jedkolko.com (former Trulia economist):

Urban Revival? Not For Most Americans

The U.S. population is now less urban than before the start of the housing bubble. While well-educated, higher-income young adults have become much more likely to live in dense urban neighborhoods, most demographic groups have been left out of the urban revival.

In recent years, numerous studies and media reports have documented that college-educated young adults have been drawn to urban centers. At times some have claimed a broader demographic reversal in which cities grow faster than suburbs, and even the end of the suburbs.

But, in fact, the U.S. continues to suburbanize. The share of Americans living in urban neighborhoods dropped by 7%, from 21.7% in 2000 to 20.1% in 2014. Even looking at only the densest urban neighborhoods where about one-third of the urban population lives, the share of Americans living in these neighborhoods fell by 5%, from 7.4% in 2000 to 7.0% in 2014. (See note at end of post for details on data, methodology, and definitions.) Headlines about educated young adults flocking to Brooklyn and San Francisco aren’t wrong – but they are far from the whole story and are unrepresentative of broader trends. Other demographic groups are suburbanizing faster than the young and rich are piling in to cities.

This post looks at the change in urban living for detailed demographic groups, using individual-level data from the Census. The findings are consistent with analyses of the most recent county data and of detailed neighborhood data, both of which confirm that the American population overall continues to suburbanize. What’s new is that individual-level data show us how skewed the urban revival is toward rich, young, educated Whites without school-age kids.

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120 Responses to Jed Kolko drops the bomb on the urbanization myth

  1. 1987 Condo says:

    “What’s new is that individual-level data show us how skewed the urban revival is toward rich, young, educated Whites without school-age kids.”…….bingo

  2. Ben says:

    Damn shame all of that income inequality being generated by the school system.

    You have a situation where a retiree should up and retire, and give that job to an able younger candidate.

    Instead, they take the pension and the job, and get paid a king’s ransom.

    While someone else is jobless.

    Why no outrage anon? I know CEOs and Presidents that make less money than this lot.

    Haha, county superintendent. I’d love to know what they actually do.

  3. grim says:

    In the entirety of the state and county school districts, there is no one else qualified to do the job?

    Perhaps we should talk about succession planning, and not justifying crony double dipping.

  4. Essex says:

    What a relief, I was beginning to think I wasn’t nearly hip enough.

  5. Fabius Maximus says:

    I had wondered what would happen if Apple didn’t play ball and the Feds got into the phone anyway. So now the Feds got a third party to crack the iPhone, and Apple now has a bit of a PR nightmare on its hands.

    I suspect Apples M&A team are working late nights trying to put a bid together for a certain company.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup, as soon as they have school age kids, they are gone.

    1987 Condo says:
    March 30, 2016 at 4:04 pm
    “What’s new is that individual-level data show us how skewed the urban revival is toward rich, young, educated Whites without school-age kids.”…….bingo

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just like jersey isn’t dying, the suburbs are not either.

    “But, in fact, the U.S. continues to suburbanize. The share of Americans living in urban neighborhoods dropped by 7%, from 21.7% in 2000 to 20.1% in 2014. Even looking at only the densest urban neighborhoods where about one-third of the urban population lives, the share of Americans living in these neighborhoods fell by 5%, from 7.4% in 2000 to 7.0% in 2014. (See note at end of post for details on data, methodology, and definitions.) Headlines about educated young adults flocking to Brooklyn and San Francisco aren’t wrong – but they are far from the whole story and are unrepresentative of broader trends. Other demographic groups are suburbanizing faster than the young and rich are piling in to cities.”

  8. Hughesrep says:

    5

    At least the FBI didn’t have to outsource it.

  9. Fabius Maximus says:

    Grim, be careful what you wish for with a third party. You might not like the outcome. The likelihood is that a third party will come out of the remnants of the GOP. That will give you another 5 terms of Dems in the Oval office. As Juice pointed out the Libertarians (who have the best shot) can only get on the ballot in 32 states. That is on the ballot, then you have to actually win. As I pointed out with Bloomberg’s run, while a third party candidate might get 20% of the vote, without a ground base party, its futile. Then you have parties that can muster the ground game (the Greens can get on the ballots), but don’t have a manifesto that country will get behind.
    The current situation while you might hate it, is probably the best there is at the moment. GOP and Dem have a 35% base and they fight for the middle 20% independent. No side has a straight majority, so in theory, they can’t get to far out of line. If they do (as the GOP has done the last few cycles), you concede the middle to the other side and lose. Sort of like Trump is doing at the moment.

  10. Fabius Maximus says:

    #8 Hughesrep

    Not only outsourced, but by all accounts offshored.

  11. walking bye says:

    #10 #8 -I heard it was Cellebrite of Parsippany

  12. Hughesrep says:

    10

    They are our allies.

  13. Grim says:

    The purpose of the suit was to set precedent.

    This has nothing to do with a specific phone, the FBI attempted to capitalize on the situation and use public emotion to strong arm Apple.

    It is hypothesized that it was the FBI that was attempting to save face with this new information.

    Apples attack back is clear evidence of that.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    [13] grim

    Heard the same argument presented on Bloomberg.

  15. Ben says:

    In the entirety of the state and county school districts, there is no one else qualified to do the job?

    Perhaps we should talk about succession planning, and not justifying crony double dipping.

    School admins go to all their meetings passing out business cards. They all hire each other and promote each other. Now they do each other favors even after they “retire”.

  16. Fabius Maximus says:

    #13 grim

    Precedent? That went out the door with the 4th amendment in the Patriot Act.

    You can say that Apple were drawing a line in the sand with their refusal, but there is a problem calling someones bluff. If they are not bluffing, you need a better hand to win.

    Here is were I think Apple messed up. Everyone knows the phone could be cracked, but Apple bet that they were the only ones to know how. Now that a third party is involved, Apple needs to find out how they did it. Was it by the same approach they would have taken or something else. The prospect of “Something Else” is a PR disaster.

    This is just the start of this. While PC v1rus checking has always played catch up, Apple for the most part have relied on the security of their OS. While it is a tough nut to crack. Now we see, it has been cracked. While desktop OS market share has been small for Apple, in the mobile space it is a sizable chunk. Hackers follow the money. Desktop PC’s have always been a cheap and lucrative fishing ground. I suspect that you will start to see a significant uptick on attacks in the Apple space as it could be a whole new revenue stream for a certain type of business.

  17. Grim says:

    would love to see Apple sue Cellebrite under the DMCA.

  18. Grim says:

    And companies like Cellebrite were never a secret – they are in business selling products to do this every day.

    Their market it shit phones and android.

  19. Grim says:

    By the way IOS 8 is not IOS 9.

    The new devices are not vulnerable to the previous hacks, which you can find if you try.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    #15 Ben

    I know an Admin with his own consulting Firm. Can you guess what they advise on?

    The Interim gig is the worst. Retire, take a temporary gig for two years and then bail to another district before the pension penalties kick in. I don’t think Interim contracts can go over 2 years. There was shock in this area when the Regional Interim would not renew for a third year and the districts had to scramble to hire an Emergency Interim for the Interim. You can’t make this stuff up.
    Best is the Interim who realized that the district had been deducting UI from his paycheck. When his contract was up, he sued them for unemployment.
    I’ll let the Lawyers on the board dissect that one. SUPERIOR COURT APPELLATE A-0235-10T4

    At the end of the day, this comes down to NJ and 500+ districts (fifedoms) each with its own Infrastructure. Unless you consolidate, you will never resolve this.

  21. Fabius Maximus says:

    #17 grim

    I’ll defer to the lawyers on this, but I would say that would be too heavy a lift even for a company with Apples resources. I think the quicker solution is to buy the firm.

  22. Grim says:

    What heavy lift? If Crllebrites technology involved copying and then editing the firmware to introduce the exploit, and they sell this technology, they are violating the DMCA and infringing on Apples copyrights.

  23. Fabius Maximus says:

    Missed this last week when I was off in DC. After dumping Rand last year Paul Ryan finally has his come to Jsus moment!

    Maybe there is hope for the GOP after all.

    “There was a time that I would talk about a difference between ‘makers’ and ‘takers’ in our country, referring to people who accepted government benefits. But as I spent more time listening, and really learning the root causes of poverty, I realized something. I realized that I was wrong. ‘Takers’ wasn’t how to refer to a single mom stuck in a poverty trap, trying to take care of her family. Most people don’t want to be dependent. And to label a whole group of Americans that way was wrong. I shouldn’t castigate a large group of Americans to make a point.”

  24. Juice Box says:

    Re: Cute but no Grim.

    in the DMCA law is an exclusion.

    “Law Enforcement, Intelligence, and Other Government
    Activities.–This section does not prohibit any lawfully authorized
    investigative, protective, information security, or intelligence
    activity of an officer, agent, or employee of the United States, a
    State, or a political subdivision of a State, or a person acting
    pursuant to a contract with the United States, a State, or a political
    subdivision of a State.”

  25. Juice Box says:

    also additional legislation will be forthcoming next year for sure, perhaps another export ban again on encryption. you can bet our MIC will scare the bejeezus out of congress to get it passed.

  26. Juice Box says:

    Re IOS 9, secure enclave etc, they can unlock any phone now the MDM APIs exist for that purpose, it will be interesting to see if they just simply side loaded an app update and unlocked it that way.

  27. Grim says:

    Doesn’t negate the need for a brute force attack on the passcode, which could take weeks, or even years.

    Brute force on the handset is limited by the speed of the handset – it’s not like you can dump the ram to an specialized machine for brute force.

  28. “The U.S. population is now less urban than before the start of the housing bubble. While well-educated, higher-income young adults have become much more likely to live in dense urban neighborhoods, most demographic groups have been left out of the urban revival most people in places like Kentucky prefer to divert their limited incomes to alcohol rather than contraception.”

  29. dammit

    The U.S. population is now less urban than before the start of the housing bubble. While well-educated, higher-income young adults have become much more likely to live in dense urban neighborhoods, most demographic groups have been left out of the urban revivalmost people in places like Kentucky prefer to divert their limited incomes to alcohol rather than contraception.

  30. Maybe Jed could no longer afford his SF loft when he lost the Trulia gig?

    grim – you left of this part of the article:

    People Aren’t Urbanizing, But Money Is

    Urban neighborhoods – especially higher-density urban neighborhoods – grew richer between 2000 and 2014. But only higher-income households became more urban over these years. The poorest tenth of households was 12% less likely to live in urban neighborhoods in 2014 compared with 2000, and 17% less likely to live in higher-density urban neighborhoods. In contrast, the richest tenth of households was 12% more likely to live in higher-density urban neighborhoods, and only 1% less urban overall in 2014 than in 2000. The top four income deciles were all more likely to live in higher-density neighborhoods in 2014 than 2000, while none of the bottom six were.

  31. Pumps – just the opposite situation exists in Boston. Families only move out when they can’t afford it or can’t get into or afford the “right” school. In fact, Boston has a problem with families that do move out of the city but use a relative’s address to keep their kids in Boston public schools. None of our friends with kids have left Boston, though a few have moved…to a different place in Boston.

    Yup, as soon as they have school age kids, they are gone.

    1987 Condo says:
    March 30, 2016 at 4:04 pm
    “What’s new is that individual-level data show us how skewed the urban revival is toward rich, young, educated Whites without school-age kids.”…….bingo

  32. D-FENS says:

    Data vs Anecdotes

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    [31] expat

    Same problem exists in DC. Parents move to PG county but “keep” a DC address and their DC school. I remember a sting that a school conducted when they recorded all of the Maryland license plates that were dropping off kids at the school.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    [33] redux

    Interestingly, the next county over, Montgomery county, has an extremely well respected school system so those parents aren’t in the DC drop off lines as often. And if they are, it is because they want to maintain some continuity or maintain the racial mix that they enjoyed. If I were a black kid from DC who found myself at Montgomery Blair high school, I might feel a bit out of place.

  35. [32] The data in the article supports my anecdotal observations. 35-44 year olds are increasing their urbanization numbers, and that was exactly my cohort when we had kids. Most of our kids were born 2000-2006.

    The only age group that has become more urban since 2000 is 35-39 year-olds, who in 2014 were 2% more likely to live in urban neighborhoods and 9% more likely to live in higher-density urban neighborhoods. (In addition, 40-44 year-olds are ever so slightly more likely to live in urban neighborhoods, by 0.1%.)

  36. Nom – Last year I used to drop my daughter off at 6:30AM in Oak Square for her bus. It was a big bus stop with Boston Latin kids on one side of the street, Boston Latin Academy on the other side. I would then get on the Mass Pike West and get off in West Newton (last exit before the Route 128 tolls). I would regularly follow a white VW that had just dropped of their Asian kid at the BLA stop all the way back to a very nice neighborhood in West Newton and you and I know that Newton has a great school system and very expensive houses.

    [31] expat

    Same problem exists in DC. Parents move to PG county but “keep” a DC address and their DC school. I remember a sting that a school conducted when they recorded all of the Maryland license plates that were dropping off kids at the school.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    [36] expat,

    Yes, I know I love all of which you speak.

    I’m familiar with BLA because a woman I once dated back in the 80’s taught there. Heard some interesting things about the divide between the kids who came from different neighborhoods. Suffice it to say that BLA reflected the city’s divides.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    Weird. Should have read “I know of all of which you speak”.

    Can Cellebrite do something about the crappy voice recognition software?

  39. grim says:

    Even if they could pull the raw data off a current iPhone, it’s encrypted as AES256 – and a brute force attack using a supercomputer would still take about 2-5 years using a modern supercomputer (assuming you only need to try 50% of the keys to get in).

    And then Apple just makes a minor change to go to with a longer key length, and the Earth would be swallowed by the sun before a brute force attack would work.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    This article talks mainly about mobile and new payment processing technology but it’s a trend I saw back in the early 90s and one of the factors that led me to conclude that I needed to kickstart that law school thing.

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/31/fintech-start-up-boom-said-to-threaten-bank-jobs.html

    Back then, one of the name partners I knew at a small, old money BD used to call SSB “State Street Software”. I’m sure most, if not all, of the departments I worked in have largely been eliminated by software.

  41. Grim says:

    I interviewed for a technical position at a Wall Street bank years back and was shocked to see how much of the enterprise was managed on spreadsheets. They had rooms full of excel jockeys doing reconciliations manually.

  42. Grim says:

    Even then I thought it was nuts, I told the VP that was interviewing me that I could probably build a system to replace all the people, with zero error rate.

    I didn’t get the job.

    But it is still what I do today.

  43. 3b says:

    #6 and yet more office buildings in lower Manhattan being converted to apartments. Just saw another new one yesterday across from the federal deserve. And if they are leaving when they have kids they are not having the kids until their late 30s into their 40’s and older. Mortgages and college well into their 50’s and beyond. Sounds like fun!!

  44. grim says:

    Was too naive to realize two things at the time:

    Sometimes things are done in such a way for reasons not overtly obvious as part of that task.

    My suggestion would have likely eliminated that VPs position as well. Not that I understand today why anyone would want to be VP of spreadsheet jockeys, but maybe it paid well.

  45. [37] Back in the ’80’s BLA was across Ipswich Street from Fenway Park, right? It’s been on Townsend Street in Roxbury wince 1991, in the old Roxbury Memorial School.

    I’m familiar with BLA because a woman I once dated back in the 80′s taught there. Heard some interesting things about the divide between the kids who came from different neighborhoods. Suffice it to say that BLA reflected the city’s divides.

  46. 3b says:

    #7 pumps the state is dying. We have one of the lowest credit ratings in the country. S&p has the state on negative credit watch. Next ratings downgrade puts us in bbb category.

  47. 3b says:

    I guess these parents I see walking their kids to school every morning in downtown Manhattan are a mirage?

  48. nwnj3 says:

    Aren’t IPhone PINs limited to numbers only? That weakens the password strength massively if the device is vulnerable to brute force. They probably cracked it within a few minutes.

  49. Juice Box says:

    re # 43- 3b – Household formation.

    Nationwide only 13% of households formed were created by young people between 25 and 34 years old. They are 42% of the overall population.

  50. Juice Box says:

    re: 47 – True 3B but once they have that third status child they no longer fit into a cab and must move to the burbs.

  51. 3b says:

    #49 juice: I am not sure what is going on. Probably going to get in trouble but I am not sure waiting until 40 or older to start having kids is the best idea. To each his own but I we would not want to do that. At least in lower Manhattan it appears that there are families who are here for the long term kids in school etc. My point is simply that pumps with his silly once they have kids they are gone theory seems to be more complex than that. Just as an aside 3 houses sold on my block over the last couple of years and none of the buyers were young couples however you define young couples with kids. I am not seeing the moms and dads with carriages in the park on weekends either. Pumps whole point is they have kids they leave for suburbs so my house price will go up.

  52. Juice Box says:

    re # 48 – Supposedly even with A7 and the latest iOS 9 update you can still Blackbox it and you crack a 4 digit pin code in 4.7 days without going past the 10 try limit, if it is even enabled.

    There are always new zero day cracks, and venture backed people willing to pay for them.

    https://www.zerodium.com/

  53. Juice Box says:

    re: # 51 – My 47 year old unmarried cousin a world traveler her entire life is now expecting with a little help from science, lives in Brooklyn works in Manhattan.

  54. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    no, sorry no hope

    GOP’s permanently broken

    Fabius Maximus says:
    March 30, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    Maybe there is hope for the GOP after all.

  55. grim says:

    Aren’t IPhone PINs limited to numbers only? That weakens the password strength massively if the device is vulnerable to brute force. They probably cracked it within a few minutes.

    If you use a 4 digit numeric, and not an alphanumeric.

    With the new phones, you can use a long alphanumeric passcode, and not need to type it in every time, using your fingerprint. I think the new default is 6 digit numeric, not 4.

    I would imagine it’s relatively easy for the FBI to get a fingerprint to access an iPhone.

    Hell, just cut the finger off the dead body. Torture, whatever.

  56. grim says:

    Me?

    I would use a scanning electron microscope to map the screen and look for specific deformations in the screen coating that correspond with passcode entry.

    Any phone in use for a year will have microscopic damage to the screen coating. Once you can identify the numbers in use, you will have a significantly easier time brute forcing a passcode.

    Even for a phone with the 10-tries limit in place, I would imagine you could use the known digits to identify significant numbers (birthdays, etc) – to make best use of the 10 guesses.

    This is no different from thieves that can easily look at a pin entry pad on a building or door and easily see the numbers most commonly pressed (because they will be slightly shiny, or have differential paint wear).

  57. Juice Box says:

    re# 55 – No need to kill anybody or cut their finger off. The problem with fingerprint is Judges have already ruled Touch ID doesn’t fall under Fifth Amendment self incrimination protection. A fingerprint is a physical object and not something stashed away in memory, it falls under the same evidence collection rules as actual fingerprints, blood samples, and objects like physical keys.

  58. D-FENS says:

    I think the device was owned by his employer…it wasn’t his personal device. If that’s the case it probably had some sort of MDM software on it, and with that you can require numbers, letters, and special characters as the unlock password.

    nwnj3 says:
    March 31, 2016 at 9:11 am
    Aren’t IPhone PINs limited to numbers only? That weakens the password strength massively if the device is vulnerable to brute force. They probably cracked it within a few minutes.

  59. grim says:

    58 – He worked public sector, not private, judge that how you will, but to me, MDM on that device is a long-shot. They probably had a business agreement in place for billing and devices, and little more.

  60. walking bye says:

    My post yesterday got moderated. But anecdotal evidence, We have 6 weddings this year vs 2 over the last 4 years. These are all millennial weddings just over 30. BTW what has changed in the last 4 years- girls will now make out on the dance floor.

  61. Juice Box says:

    re # 61 – instead of the bridal suite or closet?

  62. D-FENS says:

    Please please let the thread devolve into racy wedding stories involving two women kissing….no more serious news please.

  63. Juice Box says:

    Humm.

    Anecdotal home sale news. 4 Br House on the busy entrance corner of my development on 40 mph road just sold. It was listed and de-listed with several realtors over the last three years. They did some landscaping and cleaned it up a bit. Just closed $21k above ask. Nice to know my neighborhood is still in demand, even if it is only a modest increase.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    To each his own. If you are wealthy and can afford to raise a family in the city, I’m sure you will do it. Cramming a family of four or five into a city apartment doesn’t sound ideal to me. If you can afford 3,000 sq ft or more, I’m sure you might stay. For most, raising a family in the city is a hassle on their life and a strain on their finances. Why would you spend 3 million on an apartment when you can get a much better place to live and raise your family in the suburbs? Also, it’s much safer to raise a family in the burbs. So unless you are ultra wealthy, you are better off raising your family in the burbs. You will give them a much better quality of life.

    That 3 million dollar apartment can be used to buy a 2 million dollar home and the other million for a beach house. Which lifestyle would you choose for your family?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    March 31, 2016 at 7:18 am
    Pumps – just the opposite situation exists in Boston. Families only move out when they can’t afford it or can’t get into or afford the “right” school. In fact, Boston has a problem with families that do move out of the city but use a relative’s address to keep their kids in Boston public schools. None of our friends with kids have left Boston, though a few have moved…to a different place in Boston.

    Yup, as soon as they have school age kids, they are gone.

    1987 Condo says:
    March 30, 2016 at 4:04 pm
    “What’s new is that individual-level data show us how skewed the urban revival is toward rich, young, educated Whites without school-age kids.”…….bingo

  65. 1987 Condo says:

    #63..agree

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Money has always been attracted to the cities. And that’s why the price per sq ft becomes so expensive that regular people can no longer live there and must stretch their dollar in the burbs.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    March 31, 2016 at 7:04 am
    Maybe Jed could no longer afford his SF loft when he lost the Trulia gig?

    grim – you left of this part of the article:

    People Aren’t Urbanizing, But Money Is

    Urban neighborhoods – especially higher-density urban neighborhoods – grew richer between 2000 and 2014. But only higher-income households became more urban over these years. The poorest tenth of households was 12% less likely to live in urban neighborhoods in 2014 compared with 2000, and 17% less likely to live in higher-density urban neighborhoods. In contrast, the richest tenth of households was 12% more likely to live in higher-density urban neighborhoods, and only 1% less urban overall in 2014 than in 2000. The top four income deciles were all more likely to live in higher-density neighborhoods in 2014 than 2000, while none of the bottom six were.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nj is not dying, if it gets worse, nj will just stop sending so much money to the fed govt and instead have the fed govt send other state’s dollars here to help plug in our budgets. Until we are not the no 1 state contributing to fed tax dollars, I’m not worried.

    3b says:
    March 31, 2016 at 8:57 am
    #7 pumps the state is dying. We have one of the lowest credit ratings in the country. S&p has the state on negative credit watch. Next ratings downgrade puts us in bbb category.

  68. D-FENS says:

    If so many rich people are moving to Hoboken or JC, why do we still need to send bucketloads of state school aid there?

  69. Ben says:

    If so many rich people are moving to Hoboken or JC, why do we still need to send bucketloads of state school aid there?

    They’ll argue that reversing the flow and raising taxes there will stop the growth. They now have a sense of entitlement to that money.

  70. grim says:

    69 – PILOTs – not the ones that fly planes.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Using parks as a barometer is not the best idea. In the city with their tiny apartments, of course people flock to the parks. In a large suburban home with a fenced in yard, not so much. Kids in the suburbs have play rooms and lots of toys. City = lack of space; you don’t have the space for this type of setting. Back in the day, there wasn’t much for kids to do at their home, so you always saw kids in the streets. Times have changed.

    3b says:
    March 31, 2016 at 9:27 am
    #49 juice: I am not sure what is going on. Probably going to get in trouble but I am not sure waiting until 40 or older to start having kids is the best idea. To each his own but I we would not want to do that. At least in lower Manhattan it appears that there are families who are here for the long term kids in school etc. My point is simply that pumps with his silly once they have kids they are gone theory seems to be more complex than that. Just as an aside 3 houses sold on my block over the last couple of years and none of the buyers were young couples however you define young couples with kids. I am not seeing the moms and dads with carriages in the park on weekends either. Pumps whole point is they have kids they leave for suburbs so my house price will go up.

  72. Juice Box says:

    Wow – Almost 25% of Hoboken public school kids attend Charter Schools now.

    “Growing public school population, including in charter schools”

    In the past, the public could vote on the school budget each April. But since 2012, this has not been the case. There is no public vote as long as the increase stays within a state-mandated cap of 2 percent. (The state can make exceptions if the school population is growing.)

    School taxes have gone up slightly every year since 2012.

    The need for this year’s tax increase, school officials said, is related to the hiring of nine new teachers, growing payments made out to charter schools, and relatively flat state aid.

    The district foresees dispersing $9.2 million to the city’s three charter schools in the next school year (Hoboken Dual Language Charter School-HoLa, Hoboken Charter School, and the Elysian Charter School); a 7.2 percent increase over the current year. The district is required to provide 90 percent of the funding (under the current state formula) for each charter school student living in Hoboken.

    Since 2007 when charter schools received $2.8 million, School Business Administrator William Moffitt said, payments to charter schools have increased by 230 percent.

    School administrators estimate charter school enrollment will increase from 726 students to 772, an increase of 46. HoLa makes up 44 of that estimated increase, as it is expanding next year to seventh grade. The school board has been fighting in court to prevent HoLa from expanding, a move that has caused some controversy.

    At the start of the meeting Hoboken Superintendent Christine Johnson said that the state projects an increase of 99 public school students for the coming year (not including charter schools), but the district itself predicts 137 new students.

    Moffitt said the public school student body (excluding charter school students) is currently made up of 2,580 students. Johnson said that due to recent enrollment growth the district was allowed by the state to grow the tax levy by 1.77 percent over the 2 percent legal cap.

    http://hudsonreporter.com/view/full_story/27130989/article-City-and-school-budgets-likely-to-increase-Public-can-give-suggestions–comments-at-upcoming-hearings-?instance=home_Most_popular

  73. D-FENS says:

    Trenton makes the world takes…

    Coming in at number two on the list

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/the_10_fastest_shrinking_towns_in_nj.html#13

  74. Libturd questioning the gender of Hillary's Cankle fluid. says:

    Cause those rich people wouldn’t dare send their kids to those public schools. Unless of course, they qualify for McNair.

  75. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    [45] expat

    Correct

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    Had occasion to read the US – Israel tax convention. Reminded me that all these morons who are screaming that corporations who are moving overseas to avoid US taxation seriously fail to understand cross border taxation. Territorial taxation is the international Norm, and these formally domestic corporations are simply using self help to do what the US government is failing to do.

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    Formally=formerly. Boy I hate this voice app

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:

    Fed court says MetLife isn’t a SIFI. This will reverberate in K street

  79. 3b says:

    #72 pumps: don’t treat me like a moron with kids and play rooms and lots of toys. You are a condescending fool! I raised my kids in the suburbs so I can comment. When our kids were babies / toddlers on a nice weekend all the young moms and dads were out in the parks. Not the case today. So either they don’t have kids yet or they are still in the urban areas. So something changed or your belief that they all flee to the suburbs has not happened yet. Its not because of toys and play rooms. A critical thinker you are not. But you are quite foolish.

  80. 3b says:

    #68 pump: of course you are not worried. You are an idiot and idiots don’t worry.

  81. grim says:

    My neighborhood is turning over to younger families.

    When we bought a few years ago, we were the second in with young kids – everyone else was older, or had teen kids – just in the past 2 years 2 new neighbors (direct neighbors), with kids younger than ours. Happening around all the blocks – clockwork – ever new sale brings in a family with young kids. Moving VERY fast too. Maybe a dozen houses turned over in the past year to families with pre-k kids, or some mix of kids around that age.

    Anecdotal bullshit – but I see it here.

  82. grim says:

    Someone needs to vandalize that sign.

    Trenton Takes

    would be most appropriate.

  83. 3b says:

    Well I guess you guys win. They will all come back to the suburbs. I still believe much more complicated than that. But I will end the discussion here.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who is treating you like a moron? Those are serious reasons as to why someone chooses to move to the suburbs to raise their family as opposed to the city.

    People still go to the parks, I was there yesterday with my 2 1/2 year old. I just think with how busy people are with their schedules today and work hours, they are less likely to go hang out at the parks with their free time when both parents are home from work. They will seek out other family destinations.

    Instead of the park, kids have organized events setup for them to do(a lot of kids have organized events planned almost every day of the week). My kid has gymnastics every Saturday morning, before that, it was the little gym. Next year, looks like soccer/dance and whatever else she wants to do.

    3b says:
    March 31, 2016 at 12:31 pm
    #72 pumps: don’t treat me like a moron with kids and play rooms and lots of toys. You are a condescending fool! I raised my kids in the suburbs so I can comment. When our kids were babies / toddlers on a nice weekend all the young moms and dads were out in the parks. Not the case today. So either they don’t have kids yet or they are still in the urban areas. So something changed or your belief that they all flee to the suburbs has not happened yet. Its not because of toys and play rooms. A critical thinker you are not. But you are quite foolish.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    With the advent of so many electronics geared towards kids, the kids aren’t so quick to get bored and “want to go outside or to the park”. Don’t get me wrong, my kid cries on the regular to go outside or to the park, but it’s not like every second of the day like I did to my parents. I begged to go outside and play with my neighborhood friends because there was nothing else to do. So the parents just let the kids roam the neighborhood to entertain themselves. Nintendo didn’t come out till I was in kindergarten, so there wasn’t much to do in the house growing up in my age group. New generations have plenty to do, and this is what I meant by play rooms and toys (toys meaning electronic devices like iPads mixed in with traditional toys). In the city, it’s not possible to have play rooms based on the cost per sq ft. So if you think it’s fun for a family to have 2 kids and two adults all competing for their free time in the same small space, good luck. If the kids are different age, they will fight with what’s on tv. I love my family, but don’t want to be trapped in some little apartment trying to raise them. I’m realistic, and know the suburbs provide a much better environment for raising a family due to cost and space.

  86. Juice Box says:

    re # 84 – “They will all come back to the suburbs.”

    Sell to Whom? They need to unload that million dollar 1 Br walk-up to somebody.

  87. Juice Box says:

    re# 86 – “but it’s not like every second of the day like I did to my parents”

    Yeah you only moved here to do that.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Moved here for these simple reasons: cost, quality of living, and schools. Which is why everyone raising a family usually makes the same choice.

    Juice Box says:
    March 31, 2016 at 1:46 pm
    re# 86 – “but it’s not like every second of the day like I did to my parents”

    Yeah you only moved here to do that.

  89. grim says:

    I still believe much more complicated than that. But I will end the discussion here.

    I did preemptively call my own anecdotal comment bullshit…

  90. D-FENS says:

    Or

    Trenton Makes…the world ake

    grim says:
    March 31, 2016 at 12:45 pm
    Someone needs to vandalize that sign.

    Trenton Takes

    would be most appropriate.

  91. D-FENS says:

    3b is what we call…a permabear. Sometimes they’re right…sometimes they’re wrong.

  92. D-FENS says:

    Never. They will never be allowed to sell cars at the mall. That’s only for special car companies that fit the agenda.

    grim says:
    March 31, 2016 at 2:10 pm
    When was the last time you saw this at a GM dealer?

    http://www.nj.com/essex/index.ssf/2016/03/200_people_at_nj_mall_wait_to_put_down_1k_each_to.html#incart_river_home

  93. Bystander says:

    3B,

    I am one of those people and I agree that it is not ideal to be in your 40s and just starting a family. Anectdotally, I have large family and four close friends who are practically family. Here is rundown of when they had first kids.

    Immediate:

    Me: 41
    Sister 1: 29
    Sister 2: 39
    Brother 1: 37
    Note: Two other sibling without kids. One by choice, one due to tough life situation.

    Friend 1: 40
    Friend 2 (guy with 39 YO wife): 47
    Friend 3: 35
    Friend 4: 37

    I should also mention that a few above had second child around 44-45. Believe me, it is very common now. There are lots of reasons but generally I find maturity level and money are big drivers. First, if you came from divorce then you may be totally gun shy of screwing up your kids and also have baggage /extended adolescence Personally, I married wrong person is my early thirties who ended up choosing a career over a family. I ended up finding right person in late thirties. I would also say recession pushed it out further. Job market was so unstable for years. Short term consulting gigs with no health benefits made it pretty tough. The other big reason, IVF technology. It has hugely advanced in last 15 years plus health plans cover quite a bit. People can advance careers then start family later. Half of the above used IVF but one of them also does it living. He helped all of us out. Go into any IVF faculty in NY and they are packed with 40s folks. Really sad, some of these women have tried 6-7 Times. I remember one-time this woman had a Starbucks cup in her hand and another woman commented that coffee is not a good thing. The woman said “I wish it was but it is water. I have not had a coffee in 4 years”. Brutal.

  94. grim says:

    Folks who moved in across the street have got to be in their mid 40s with their first kid, pregnant with second.

  95. D-FENS says:

    I know some people who are retired…but still have to worry about taking care of their elderly sick parents…who nowadays live on into their 80’s and 90’s.

    The bright side of having kids in your 40’s is that your kids won’t have to live through that. You’ll be dead when they retire.

  96. Bystander says:

    D,

    Good one. Die before my kids end up hating me for second time. Puberty being first round.

  97. 3b – Unlike the Fed, Pumps is not data dependent.

    I guess these parents I see walking their kids to school every morning in downtown Manhattan are a mirage?

  98. That’s sad. They are too old to raise kids in the suburbs, but would fit in perfectly in the city, but probably can’t afford it. My wife’s best friend is in her early 50’s and lives with her husband and 2 kids in a very nice house in Bergen county. She has kids in HS/Junior High. She has been systematically lying to her kids since birth that she is 10 years younger than she actually is. She didn’t want to be branded the “old mom” in town. In the city she wouldn’t feel compelled to lie.

    Folks who moved in across the street have got to be in their mid 40s with their first kid, pregnant with second.

  99. Bystander says:

    Pat,

    My grandfather was 50 when he started a family in Ireland. My wife’s father was 50 when he had her. My brother in law started earlier at 34 but had his 3rd at 44. He is now 51 with 7 year old. I won’t feel too bad walking to KG at 47. Maybe it is different for women. Shoot, we just went to daycare get together and half the couples with 1 year olds were 38 or so. Other half probably at least 35 avg age. There was even a two mommies situation and one of them had to be 40. World has changed big time and I live in very traditional CT suburb.

  100. chicagofinance says:

    Am I over the hill? First this guy is a slob, and should be embarrassed to show up to work this way. However, despite the wrinkled crappy shirt AND no shave AND no shower AND no comb…..the fcuker is married by his wedding band AND he saw fit to actually author a video whilst in this sh!tbag condition AND expect to be taken seriously……WTF?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34e02E2n57s

  101. grim says:

    I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt- he did the “Herointown” piece.

  102. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Times have changed. If the suburban town is wealthy/educated, most parents in their early 50’s will have kids in high school or Jr. High. I seriously don’t know too many educated individuals that get married and have kids in their 20’s anymore. 30 is seriously the new 20. Line is pretty dead on. Not only when it comes to families, but building a career. Do you know how rare I am for my age? I bought a house at 19, no one my age did that. Go back to previous generations and loads of people were buying homes in their early 20’s. Now it’s in their 30’s. Same thing with a career, so many people I grew up with started to take life seriously when they hit 30 years old. Stuff I was worried about when I just got out of college, they only started caring about when they started to hit their late 20’s.

    It’s a much different world out there than the one you previous generations grew up in. That’s why I always called bs on the death of suburbs. I’m young enough to know what the young individuals want. I saw almost all my friends go to the city through their college years/post college years and have seen almost every single one of them resort to suburban living when they start to concentrate on their family as opposed to themselves.

    This is the only reason I call bs on these articles. Sure, there def was (still is) a trend of single professionals turning to city life in their 20’s and 30’s as opposed to starting a family in the suburbs in their 20’s (like previous generations did). This trend is right, but what the experts that discovered this trend missed, is that they assumed these individuals would not return to the suburbs to raise a family. So they claimed suburbs were dead when they clearly were not. They were wrong.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    March 31, 2016 at 3:42 pm
    That’s sad. They are too old to raise kids in the suburbs, but would fit in perfectly in the city, but probably can’t afford it. My wife’s best friend is in her early 50′s and lives with her husband and 2 kids in a very nice house in Bergen county. She has kids in HS/Junior High. She has been systematically lying to her kids since birth that she is 10 years younger than she actually is. She didn’t want to be branded the “old mom” in town. In the city she wouldn’t feel compelled to lie.

    Folks who moved in across the street have got to be in their mid 40s with their first kid, pregnant with second.

  103. [101] Bystander – You’re preaching to the choir. I’m saying that is standard fare for urban professionals, but a little out of place in the suburbs (not too much). My wife and I met when I was 30 and we got our first apartment together when I was 31, she was 28. We could have been one of those 30-something suburban families, but that wasn’t our route. We lived in about 7 different places in 4 different states and then we got engaged and married when I was 40, had kids when I was 42 & 44. We bought our place in Boston when our oldest was 3 months old. I’ll go a little bit far out on a racial limb and say that there are lots of white parents(straight and gay, btw) who also fit into our demo (early 50’s, teenage kids doing well in either Boston Latin or private schools). Our kids non-caucasion classmates tend to have much younger parents, many of them single parents.

    Pat,

    My grandfather was 50 when he started a family in Ireland. My wife’s father was 50 when he had her. My brother in law started earlier at 34 but had his 3rd at 44. He is now 51 with 7 year old. I won’t feel too bad walking to KG at 47. Maybe it is different for women. Shoot, we just went to daycare get together and half the couples with 1 year olds were 38 or so. Other half probably at least 35 avg age. There was even a two mommies situation and one of them had to be 40. World has changed big time and I live in very traditional CT suburb.

  104. Pumps – pray tell! We need to know that story! (I bet you can measure a distinct temperature increase over Nana’s grave every time Pumps brings this up; a high speed of rotation results in friction, friction results in heat.)

    Do you know how rare I am for my age? I bought a house at 19, no one my age did that.

  105. yome says:

    I know a Millionaire retired at 62 with a 9 year old child. He gets $2,000 in SS benefits and the child gets $1,000 a month. She will be collecting until 18. He saves that amount for College.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was using it as an example to show that nobody buys homes in their early twenties anymore compared to previous generations that did.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    March 31, 2016 at 6:36 pm
    Pumps – pray tell! We need to know that story! (I bet you can measure a distinct temperature increase over Nana’s grave every time Pumps brings this up; a high speed of rotation results in friction, friction results in heat.)

    Do you know how rare I am for my age? I bought a house at 19, no one my age did that.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Perfect example for anyone questioning why their taxes are so high.

    Yome says:
    March 31, 2016 at 6:48 pm
    I know a Millionaire retired at 62 with a 9 year old child. He gets $2,000 in SS benefits and the child gets $1,000 a month. She will be collecting until 18. He saves that amount for College.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    109- Best part, guarantee this guy bitches about his taxes.

  109. D-FENS says:

    Get those rich people! Get them!

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Don’t complain about Abbott funding when you see nothing wrong with a retired millionaire receiving 36,000 from the govt for living assistance. Also, don’t complain about min wage, this retired millionaire is making off of govt assistance how much more than a min wage worker? That’s sad to have a millionaire making more in a year from govt assistance than a min wage worker actually gets paid in a year from working.

    What is the purpose of this govt assistance? I look it as major fat that should be cut. It serves no purpose except to enrich an individual at the expense of everyone else.

    D-FENS says:
    March 31, 2016 at 7:21 pm
    Get those rich people! Get them

  111. Grim says:

    Depends on the Veeps

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume, Recovering From The Slopes says:
  113. Fabius Maximus says:

    #114 Grim

    Ok, todays game, pick a Veep that would move the needle.

    I’ll start with:
    Colin Powell
    Elizabeth Warren

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