Brookings: Student loan debt not holding back homeownership

From Brookings:

The dividing line between haves and have-nots in home ownership: Education, not student debt

There is widespread concern that student loans are a drag on the housing market. Leading economic thinkers, including Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz, have linked the slowdown in homeownership among young people to high levels of student debt.[i] They recommend easing loan burdens to keep student debt from acting as a brake on the economy.

But is student debt really hampering the housing recovery?

Frequently-cited analyses from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York do not provide compelling evidence for this hypothesis, since they rely on data in which college attendance is unobserved. The results are biased by unobserved variation in educational attainment, which is correlated with both home ownership and student borrowing. Better data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System nullify their key finding.[ii]

First, some background. A few years back, a blog post from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York fanned fears that student debt was holding back the economic recovery.[iii] The post compared homeownership rates of those with and without student debt. The key graph showed that, during the recession, homeownership took a sharp nosedive among 30-year-olds holding student debt, dropping faster than it did among those who did not hold student debt.[iv]

Many read into this graph that student debt is dragging down the housing investments of the college-educated, making them worse off than those who went to college and did not borrow.

But this graph and its underlying data do not (and cannot) show that debt is decreasing home ownership among the college-educated. Why not? These data contains zero information about education. Lumped together in the “No student loan debt” group are a) people who went to college yet did not borrow and b) people who never went to college. The composition of both of these groups is changing over time.

This odd comparison reflects the limitations of the data on which it is based: credit reports. Credit reports do contain detailed information about debt, including student loans, mortgages, credit cards and car loans. But they say little about the borrower herself. In particular, they include zero information about education.

Researchers at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer and Shane Sherlund) pulled together the data needed for precisely this comparison.

The researchers combined credit reports with data on college attendance from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). These NSC data are nearly a national census of college attendance and are used extensively by researchers.[v] The NSC data include college enrollment information for all college students, not just those who borrow.

The results are striking.[vi]

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

99 Responses to Brookings: Student loan debt not holding back homeownership

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Essex says:

    I wonder sometimes if we realize just how much of a rip-off it is to live in the Garden State. Oh, but we are soooooo close to NYC…..Yeeeeeesh

  3. D-FENS says:

    Bigots? No, Heroes: U.S. Gun Owners Everywhere Offering FREE Shooting Lessons to Gays

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/06/15/bigots-no-heroes-u-s-gun-owners-everywhere-offering-free-shooting-lessons-to-gays/

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Great read (opening article). Over and over again, the proof is in the pudding. Income inequality is only going to accelerate. I know what team I’m on, I hope the generations younger than me see the writing on the wall. Either you get the skills/education and join the haves, or languish in self-pity with the have nots making excuses for the rest of your life.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, but you have access to higher paying jobs. Not as many opportunities in the cheaper locations, and you pretty much get nothing for your tax dollars in a lot of these location. Emergency services are a joke, education is terrible, and you basically get no other services, but hey, it’s cheap to live there.

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 8:16 am
    I wonder sometimes if we realize just how much of a rip-off it is to live in the Garden State. Oh, but we are soooooo close to NYC…..Yeeeeeesh

  6. Essex says:

    5. I really think that you might be over generalizing here — those claims are almost impossible to back up.

  7. Essex says:

    I sincerely think that New Jersey is skewed because there is soooooo much wealth here, that ordinary people and even upper middle class folks are getting shafted big time.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not. Put it this way, most places burn their garbage or have to pay extra for garbage pickup. Recycling pickup or grass pickup….lol If you are in a nice enough town in jersey, they go into your backyard to pickup the garbage. Can’t compare nj services to some random town in middle America not located near the coasts, which is exactly what you are doing.

    Yes, nj prices are expensive, but what are you comparing it to? Nj is not expensive when you start comparing it to similar expensive locations (in any state). As a whole, yes our state is expensive compared to other states in the “stats” department, but that’s only because other states have pockets of wealth as compared to whole areas filled with wealth like nj. Take away some some of the poorer counties in nj, and our stats on wealth would be through the roof and will justify why it’s so expensive here.

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 8:52 am
    5. I really think that you might be over generalizing here — those claims are almost impossible to back up.

  9. Essex says:

    8. So you are basing this on garbage pickup…..? How New Jersey….

  10. Juice Box says:

    144 days to election, time to get some more popcorn.

    On the right with 32 days until the Cleveland convention the talking heads keep putting out 24 x 7 bile and even more conjecture of a possible rules change to oust Trump anyway.

    Meanwhile over on the left with 70 days to go until the Philly convention notwithstanding the fact that the president has endorsed someone under and FBI criminal investigation EmailGate remains in the minds of voters as a new poll says 60 percent of voters think she’s lying about her emails. Just last week the Associated Press broke a big story about how Clinton’s “unclassified” emails included the true names of CIA personnel serving overseas under cover. If it happens before the convention it is going to be one tough FBI interview for Hillary anyone remember Scooter Libby ?

    As I said more popcorn.

  11. Essex says:

    TOKYO: A Japanese man who stabbed his father to death with a chopstick was arrested on Thursday (Jun 16), police said.

    Michikazu Ikeuchi, 51, admitted that he stabbed his 80-year-old father in the throat with a 30cm-long wooden cooking chopstick on Wednesday night after a quarrel at their home in Osaka, western Japan, according to police.

    “Ikeuchi told us he had tried to stop his parents from arguing and he did not intend to kill his father,” an Osaka police official said.

    “He said in his anger he waved the chopstick in front of his father but before he knew it, it got stuck in him,” the officer said.

    Ikeuchi, who lives with his parents and his brother’s family, called emergency services for an ambulance after stabbing his father.

  12. dentss says:

    #3…What Orlando showed us, is that in the gravest extreme the cops will not help you either because they cannot get there fast enough to matter or will literally cower in the corner despite their superior numbers and firepower while the terrorist kills you instead of you taking him on. You either have the ability to help yourself or you die.

  13. Essex says:

    What? a 3 hour response time is not acceptable??

  14. Nomad says:

    Punkin,

    I know of a town way way far away from either coast where the property taxes are about 1/3 of essex county, where the schools rank nationally higher than the best public school system in essex county, where the snow removal department starts salting when the first flakes fly and plow all night if need be so the roads are clear at 6am and annual snowfall is 4-5x greater than the garden state. Every place has pros and cons but for people from this part of the world who have never lived anywhere else, you have limited frame of reference as to the issues that come with living in this part of the world.

  15. Outofstater says:

    #12 Agreed. No matter what the situation, when seconds count, even the best police dept is minutes away.
    #8. “most places burn their garbage….” You really ought to get out of NJ once in awhile. Your lack of understanding of the rest of the country is appalling but your misconceptions do serve a purpose – they soothe you into believing that your decision to live in NJ is the right one, no matter what the cost.

  16. nwnj3 says:

    Blumpy has never lived more than 5 miles from where he was born so he’s not exactly an expert on lifestyles elsewhere(though he pretends to be one on the internet).

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, and what kind of opportunities are present for out of town folk that did not grow up in this location? ZERO? How many opportunities are there for the local folk that grew up there? Obviously, you didn’t list the location, but I prob already know the answer.

    Nomad says:
    June 16, 2016 at 10:16 am
    Punkin,

    I know of a town way way far away from either coast where the property taxes are about 1/3 of essex county, where the schools rank nationally higher than the best public school system in essex county, where the snow removal department starts salting when the first flakes fly and plow all night if need be so the roads are clear at 6am and annual snowfall is 4-5x greater than the garden state. Every place has pros and cons but for people from this part of the world who have never lived anywhere else, you have limited frame of reference as to the issues that come with living in this part of the world.

  18. Do you think Christie is so against recreational marijuana legalization because NJ would go from being known as the Garden State to being known as the Weed State?

  19. Essex says:

    18. you would be suprised where telco, tech, and mfg ended up. Geez man.

    Remember when Mercedes left Montvale, NJ for South Carolina….?

  20. Essex says:

    Morgan Stanley global strategy team of Chetan Ahya, Elga Bartsch, and Jonathan Ashworth. In fact, the team said in a note to clients Wednesday that nearly the same situation that occurred in 1937-38 is currently happening in the US.

    “The critical similarity between the 1930s and the 2008 cycle is that the financial shock and the relatively high levels of indebtedness changed the risk attitudes of the private sector and triggered them to repair their balance sheets,” wrote Ahya, Bartsch, and Ashworth.

    “During the deleveraging process, the private sector becomes risk-averse and shifts its attention towards restoring health to its balance sheets.”

    And how did this cautious, low demand attitude end in the early 20th century?

    Disastrously, in fact, as the private investment couldn’t replace public investment, inflation expectations plummeted and deflation rocked the economy into a double-dip recession. Unemployment rose again, and the economy went back to struggling.

    “In 1936-37, the premature and sharp pace of tightening of policies led to a double-dip in the US economy, resulting in a relapse into recession and deflation in 1938,” the Morgan Stanley team wrote.

    “Similarly, in the current cycle, as growth recovered, policy-makers proceeded to tighten fiscal policy, which has contributed to a slowdown in growth in recent quarters.”

  21. The last time Treasury yields got this low, this is what happened. I wonder if it just happened again.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/one-reader-tried-get-recording-yellens-world-saving-phone-call-what-fed-replied

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m not talking about suburbs. I’m talking about rural locations. You are not going to find data on this because it is illegal, but do you know how many rural residents burn most of their garbage? You really think they are going to pay to drive their garbage to a transfer station and drop it off? Maybe it’s just the rural parts I’ve been in, but most of them illegally burn their garbage in a burn barrel. You are crazy to think otherwise.

    “#8. “most places burn their garbage….” You really ought to get out of NJ once in awhile. Your lack of understanding of the rest of the country is appalling but your misconceptions do serve a purpose – they soothe you into believing that your decision to live in NJ is the right one, no matter what the cost.”

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Great, so you are lucky and get a high paying job in that location. If you want to raise a family, how much will education cost? You know damn well you will have to go to private school, and how much will this add to your yearly bill? So much on saving on taxes.

    But truth is, north carolina does not have the same high paying jobs as nj. Nj blows them out the door. Just look at this list to understand why Nj is an expensive place to live when compared to North Carolina. Huge difference in pay. Great, save a little on taxes and get raped on pay.

    http://www.usawage.com/high-pay/jobs-state-north_carolina.php

    http://www.usawage.com/high-pay/jobs-state-new_jersey.php

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 10:59 am
    18. you would be suprised where telco, tech, and mfg ended up. Geez man.

    Remember when Mercedes left Montvale, NJ for South Carolina….?

  24. 3b says:

    23/24 your posts are incredibly tiresome!? The same tired old rhetorical b.s.in an attempt to justify the high property prices and taxes of a rapidly declining state.

  25. Nomad says:

    Pumps, in the location I refer of, plenty of uneducated, unskilled and unemployed. Plenty of high powered professionals hauling down north of $500k with a cost of living 1/3 of NNJ. Plenty of private jets (G5, 550, 5X & X) at the local airport.

    Is it fair to say your entire life you have lived in your present county or contiguous county in NJ? When I first came to this part of the world, I was intrigued by people who knew everything about the country but never lived outside of the county they were born in. Yep, even in the garden state, there are lifers. Doesn’t make it bad, but does limit ones scope.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Rapidly declining state? Says who? Show proof that our population is going down, and people are leaving in droves, I see none of it. Don’t get mad at the messenger if you don’t like the message.

    Look at the data in post #24. How many 6 figure jobs are available in total in North Carolina, and then compare it to jersey. It’s not even a comparison, but keep on dreaming that the grass is greener somewhere else. If this imaginary place existed, everyone would flock to it like crazy.

    3b says:
    June 16, 2016 at 11:39 am
    23/24 your posts are incredibly tiresome!? The same tired old rhetorical b.s.in an attempt to justify the high property prices and taxes of a rapidly declining state.

  27. Essex says:

    27. uh….they….are….flocking to them

    New Jersey’s population has started to contract back toward its urban core for the first time since the end of the second World War, new research shows, in what could mark a death knell for suburban sprawl and foretell significant changes to the fabric of the Garden State.

    A new study published by the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University reveals that between 2010 and 2013, population in 12 of the 27 counties that constitute the New York metropolitan area experienced population losses following more than a half-century of gains.

    In New Jersey, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon and Monmouth Counties all suffered losses during this period.

    These counties all have one thing in common – they all exist on the far periphery of the metropolitan area – which researchers say is a signal that after decades of outward expansion, people are gravitating back toward cities.

    “The era of moving ever outward is probably now in the past,” said James Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School, and a co-author of the study. “You always have to be cautious about forecasting, but it would appear we may be at the beginning of a major change, the crest of a wave.”

    During the same period, New Jersey’s urban counties have been growing at a far faster rate, a pattern mimicked in New York City and the counties of New York state and Connecticut that border it.

    It marks a reversal of how population grew in the region from 1950 through 2000, when urban counties suffered dramatic losses and New Jersey’s suburban communities experienced a period of unparalleled growth.

  28. Essex says:

    ok maybe not the best example…

  29. Essex says:

    try this….

    New Jersey loses a portion of its senior population every year to less-expensive — and less snowy — states like Florida and North Carolina. But a new study of outmigration trends issued by the New Jersey Business & Industry Association raises new alarms about the number of so-called millennials who have also been leaving the state.

    Of all the age groups in New Jersey that experienced a net loss in population from 2007 to 2014, the highest rate was among people between the ages of 18 and 34, according to the business-lobbying organization.

    That brain drain hurts the overall New Jersey economy and makes it harder for the state to attract the type of companies that rely on young, skilled workers, the association said.

    The new data on millennials leaving New Jersey was included in NJBIA’s broader outmigration study, which concluded that the state had a net loss of 682,062 residents between 2005 and 2014. And from 2004 to 2013, New Jersey lost $18 billion in net adjusted gross income, the NJBIA said.

    The organization blamed New Jersey’s high taxes and overregulation for that loss of wealth and residents, and it offered a list of recommendations that ranged from tax reform to better workforce development and making higher education more affordable as remedies.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’ve traveled the country and lived summers in the 90’s in Florida.

    What area are you talking about? Jackson Hole, Wyoming? These places are not realistic. If we are going to do that, then why don’t we just cherry pick parts of Jersey. Let’s pick the pine barrens and call Jersey the most isolated wilderness area on the east coast. How about we pick somerset county, and describe jersey as some wealthy oasis. Or how about we pick the gold coast, and speak of jersey as some yuppie urban paradise.

    When I speak of jersey, I’m speaking for the whole thing. If we are going to compare jersey to other states, let’s compare the entire state, and not specific locations in certain states, which is exactly what everyone does.

    Nomad says:
    June 16, 2016 at 11:42 am
    Pumps, in the location I refer of, plenty of uneducated, unskilled and unemployed. Plenty of high powered professionals hauling down north of $500k with a cost of living 1/3 of NNJ. Plenty of private jets (G5, 550, 5X & X) at the local airport.

    Is it fair to say your entire life you have lived in your present county or contiguous county in NJ? When I first came to this part of the world, I was intrigued by people who knew everything about the country but never lived outside of the county they were born in. Yep, even in the garden state, there are lifers. Doesn’t make it bad, but does limit ones scope.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How many of these millennials lack an education or skills to make it in in the NJ economy? That’s what this article should focus on. I don’t know any successful individual that left for a low cost state. I know a bunch of losers that left for low cost states because they couldn’t make it here.

    Give an example; my loser cousin had to move to arizona because he was a complete loser who decided to drop out of school. He got a job at best buy and couldn’t afford to live here. So he went to live in a low cost state. Good riddance, we don’t need his type here.

    A friend of mine became a drug addict, he just moved to South Carolina to try and fix his life. He is 34 and his parents finally kicked him out, so he went to rehab in South Carolina and is living there permanently because of the low cost of living. Once again, good riddance, we don’t need that type here in Jersey.

    So think about the people “low cost” states attract, and I rest my fuc!ing case on this issue from people who want to equate “low cost” states as some sort of utopia in comparison to jersey. You are dead wrong.

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 11:54 am
    try this….

    New Jersey loses a portion of its senior population every year to less-expensive — and less snowy — states like Florida and North Carolina. But a new study of outmigration trends issued by the New Jersey Business & Industry Association raises new alarms about the number of so-called millennials who have also been leaving the state.

    Of all the age groups in New Jersey that experienced a net loss in population from 2007 to 2014, the highest rate was among people between the ages of 18 and 34, according to the business-lobbying organization.

    That brain drain hurts the overall New Jersey economy and makes it harder for the state to attract the type of companies that rely on young, skilled workers, the association said.

    The new data on millennials leaving New Jersey was included in NJBIA’s broader outmigration study, which concluded that the state had a net loss of 682,062 residents between 2005 and 2014. And from 2004 to 2013, New Jersey lost $18 billion in net adjusted gross income, the NJBIA said.

    The organization blamed New Jersey’s high taxes and overregulation for that loss of wealth and residents, and it offered a list of recommendations that ranged from tax reform to better workforce development and making higher education more affordable as remedies.

  32. Essex says:

    32. i’m convinced….that loss of $18b net adjusted gross income (according to the study) must just be minimum wage workers –

  33. Outofstater – You made a very succinct and accurate explanation of the dominant thought process in the Punkin mind. No kids in school, lives on a dangerous commuting route, pays $1500 monthly in property taxes. He spends countless, countless, countless hours trying to convince himself he made a good financial decision by trying, with zero positive results, to convince us Passaic County is the best place in the world to live. “Where else can I have such a great lifestyle, yet be so close to Paterson?”

    You really ought to get out of NJ once in awhile. Your lack of understanding of the rest of the country is appalling but your misconceptions do serve a purpose – they soothe you into believing that your decision to live in NJ is the right one, no matter what the cost.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Has the population in NJ been decreasing? Are there a ton of homes in Alpine and Short Hills sitting vacant? How about Hoboken, did that stop growing? 50,000+ in one square mile. Jersey City waterfront area doesn’t seem to be struggling. Retirees in NY and NJ have always been moving to Florida. Where did the term “snowbirds” come from? Recent years?

    Chris Christie has been nothing but empty promises. Sure, cap property taxes. But what does a town do when it needs to pay for something? It institutes a user fee. How much does it cost to register a car in “low tax” Florida? How about all those HOA communities (virtually all of Florida)? What is that cost? You still need your garbage picked up, whether you pay your town to do it or a private company. No?

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 12:14 pm
    32. i’m convinced….that loss of $18b net adjusted gross income (according to the study) must just be minimum wage workers –

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    35- I would also add that the loss of 18B might be from successful baby boomers who made their money in nj, and have since retired, and became snowbirds. The baby boomer population was a huge part of our population, so it does make sense.

    Jersey is not dead, nor is it dying.

  36. Ben says:

    Most places burn their garbage. Here in NJ, Tony Soprano has it dumped into the nearest Marsh.

  37. 3b says:

    36 pumps: it is. You can chose to ignore it.

  38. Joyce says:

    “When I speak of jersey, I’m speaking for the whole thing. ”

    When you speak of NJ, you speak of the northeast and a handful of shore towns.

  39. [36] That would mean your part-time neighbors who live on the less busy streets now have smaller incomes, pay no income tax to NJ, and spend half or more of their diminished incomes far away from NJ. That is the same net economic loss as having a house full of illegals next door.

    35- I would also add that the loss of 18B might be from successful baby boomers who made their money in nj, and have since retired, and became snowbirds. The baby boomer population was a huge part of our population, so it does make sense.

  40. Joyce says:

    “Are there a ton of homes in Alpine and Short Hills sitting vacant? How about Hoboken, did that stop growing? 50,000+ in one square mile. Jersey City waterfront area doesn’t seem to be struggling. ”

    I rest my fcuking case that you weren’t talking about the whole state.

  41. D-FENS says:

    NJ burns garbage all right…we burn NYC’s

  42. Juice Box says:

    re: # 36 – “Jersey is not dead, nor is it dying”

    Give it a rest Pumps. So exactly where do you shop in Wayne anyway. You do know T-Bowl lanes for a date and Kmart or Burlington Coat factory for clothing shopping aren’t exactly the demographics of high end earners. How soon before Wayne is just Haledon West?

  43. Juice Box says:

    re “Are there a ton of homes in Alpine and Short Hills sitting vacant?”

    Pumps YES there are.

    Look at the map, homes in Alpine for that cost several million dollars each for sale on every street.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/500000-_price/1768-_mp/any_days/pricea_sort/40.946454,-73.923762,40.919771,-73.951228_rect/14_zm/

  44. Essex says:

    44. good lord that is a sea of red….

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    This may be one of the rare times when I agree with pumpkin head or whatever her/his name is at the moment. I drove to Florida, spent a few vacations there and was a little aghast at the poor looking conditions south of the D.C. area; cars abandon on the highway, the condition of roads and buildings, the overall appearance, etc. I also drove out to Western PA and had the same feeling.

    Of course, you’re going to ask to provide explicit details and so on but it’s just an overall vibe and experience that had me wanting to get back t civilization. I spent a few years in South Jersey, bought my first house just south of Toms River because my family previously had a second home there. Little did I know, living there full time and staying for week are two different things. The bottom line is that after I bought my first house and lived there year round, I couldn’t wait to sell the f.ucking joint by year two. Holy sh1t, I felt like I was in Alabama.

    I’ve also been to Southern Cal but not long enough to know what living there fulltime is like. I think I would be fine but let’s be honest, there is no place like the New York area. Yeah, the cost to live here is a killer but the quality of everything is second to none and nothing you guys tell me is going to convince me otherwise. And, just a small anecdote to supplement, my brother in law is here from Florida for the first time in four years. He grew up here and moved there when he was 40. We didn’t even reach the house from the airport and he’s telling me to find pizza, bagels, Italian bread and Italian pastries now! He says it still all sucks down there. I know, you’re going to ask me why he’s living there then and my answer is, I don’t know.

    The bottom line is that everything outside the Northeast is lacking, I’m sorry to disappoint you all. Outside of New York, Boston would be an alternative.

  46. chicagofinance says:

    Things have to move to a crisis in order to change anything……otherwise the people in position to make the unpopular choices have no way to spin taking away the punch bowl……

    Essex says:
    June 16, 2016 at 11:54 am
    try this….

    New Jersey loses a portion of its senior population every year to less-expensive — and less snowy — states like Florida and North Carolina. But a new study of outmigration trends issued by the New Jersey Business & Industry Association raises new alarms about the number of so-called millennials who have also been leaving the state.

    Of all the age groups in New Jersey that experienced a net loss in population from 2007 to 2014, the highest rate was among people between the ages of 18 and 34, according to the business-lobbying organization.

    That brain drain hurts the overall New Jersey economy and makes it harder for the state to attract the type of companies that rely on young, skilled workers, the association said.

    The new data on millennials leaving New Jersey was included in NJBIA’s broader outmigration study, which concluded that the state had a net loss of 682,062 residents between 2005 and 2014. And from 2004 to 2013, New Jersey lost $18 billion in net adjusted gross income, the NJBIA said.

    The organization blamed New Jersey’s high taxes and overregulation for that loss of wealth and residents, and it offered a list of recommendations that ranged from tax reform to better workforce development and making higher education more affordable as remedies.

  47. Essex says:

    sometimes i envy renters

  48. joyce says:

    Gary,
    Do you realize talking like this makes you sound identical to pumpkin/idiot? I have no problem believing that you strongly feel this way, but please tell me you’ll admit that these are your opinions..

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 16, 2016 at 1:43 pm

    “…let’s be honest, there is no place like the New York area.”

    “… but the quality of everything is second to none and nothing you guys tell me is going to convince me otherwise.”

  49. Anybody who is lamenting the removal of Ocean County from the Monmouth tax board site: Ocean County has it’s own searchable database:
    http://www.tax.co.ocean.nj.us/TaxBoardTaxListSearch.aspx

  50. 1987 Condo says:

    #50..Thanks!

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    joyce,

    Yes, I know I sound like him/her. lol! I strongly feel this way based on my experience. I’m bias, I admit it. And I’ll admit it’s my opinion in the spirit of logic. I’m in a New York state of mind, for better or worse. :) That part isn’t opinion, it’s a fact. :)

  52. walking bye says:

    I’ve never heard of anyone complain about leaving NJ. In fact pumkin most folks were able to increase salaries to boot. As for areas outside of NJ looking run down, ever look out the window when flying into Newark? looks like a dump. Eddie ever go to the Shoprite in Hillsdale vs a supermarket in the south? Hillsdale looks like a 3rd world country.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I guess the doctor that raised his family 3 doors down from my house had to convince himself of the same things.

    My wife and I search the listings on a regular basis. Still nothing compares to our home on a comparative cost basis. If something was better, we would buy it. Unfortunately, we haven’t had luck. We are extremely picky. You are never going to find a house that meets every single want, but if the house meets almost every single check, than it’s a good house. Only check my house doesn’t meet is a double yellow line. It’s okay, I was able to purchase this house because of the money saved from the double yellow. I could not afford 800,000 at the age of 31, which is what my house would have cost back then if it was located at the end of a cul-de-sac. Also, my property taxes would go up another 3,000-5,000 if it was in that location.

    Bottom line, we made the right choice because we are happy. We have no regrets. It’s quiet, have woods behind my house that are owned by the state, woods across the street, close to an acre of land, and in commuting distance to everything. All the neighbors take care of their properties and their homes. School system is good. What more can I ask for?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 16, 2016 at 12:29 pm
    Outofstater – You made a very succinct and accurate explanation of the dominant thought process in the Punkin mind. No kids in school, lives on a dangerous commuting route, pays $1500 monthly in property taxes. He spends countless, countless, countless hours trying to convince himself he made a good financial decision by trying, with zero positive results, to convince us Passaic County is the best place in the world to live. “Where else can I have such a great lifestyle, yet be so close to Paterson?”

    You really ought to get out of NJ once in awhile. Your lack of understanding of the rest of the country is appalling but your misconceptions do serve a purpose – they soothe you into believing that your decision to live in NJ is the right one, no matter what the cost.

  54. 3b says:

    46 Gary: sorry I expect better from you. Much of what you describe as far as run down and declining areas. Sorry much of what you describe I see in Bergen county towns now which you did not see in the past. Run down dumpy general air of neglect is common place now in what were formally nice areas. As far as falling apart look at our highways. Look at our mass transit trains in particular. Look at Hoboken terminal! I am just back from a 2 week trip to Europe. Yes they have tons of problems but their train systems at least are impressive! I have lived in Bergen county for 25 years now and large parts are becoming dumpy. It was not always this way.

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Doubt it. Think Wayne will only improve with income inequality. If you are into a nice community that is wooded and in commutable distance to the city, Wayne is the first stop on the rt3/46/80 line. Sure you can get somewhere closer in Bergen or Essex that is a wooded community, but then you are paying millions to live in places like Alpine, Englewood Cliffs, Tenafly, Short Hills, etc. Wayne has some awesome lake locations that will only go up in value over time due to the proximity to nyc.

    Btw, they are finally redoing the wayne hills mall.

    Juice Box says:
    June 16, 2016 at 12:57 pm
    re: # 36 – “Jersey is not dead, nor is it dying”

    Give it a rest Pumps. So exactly where do you shop in Wayne anyway. You do know T-Bowl lanes for a date and Kmart or Burlington Coat factory for clothing shopping aren’t exactly the demographics of high end earners. How soon before Wayne is just Haledon West?

  56. Fast Eddie says:

    Eddie ever go to the Shoprite in Hillsdale vs a supermarket in the south?

    Or, I could go to Market Basket, Fresh Market, Kings, Fairway, Whole Foods, Stop N Shop or three other Shoprite locations besides Hillsdale. Just saying. ;)

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s a cycle. Give it some time. They are being replaced with ambitious Millennials like myself. I would tell you my net worth already at the young age of 36, but I was always taught it’s not proper to talk about those kind of things.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    June 16, 2016 at 12:50 pm
    [36] That would mean your part-time neighbors who live on the less busy streets now have smaller incomes, pay no income tax to NJ, and spend half or more of their diminished incomes far away from NJ. That is the same net economic loss as having a house full of illegals next door.

    35- I would also add that the loss of 18B might be from successful baby boomers who made their money in nj, and have since retired, and became snowbirds. The baby boomer population was a huge part of our population, so it does make sense.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Type in Boca Raton, Fl. Should we now assume the same thing for Florida? Are the millionaires all leaving Fl? A lot of red on that coast.

    Juice Box says:
    June 16, 2016 at 1:01 pm
    re “Are there a ton of homes in Alpine and Short Hills sitting vacant?”

    Pumps YES there are.

    Look at the map, homes in Alpine for that cost several million dollars each for sale on every street.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/500000-_price/1768-_mp/any_days/pricea_sort/40.946454,-73.923762,40.919771,-73.951228_rect/14_zm/

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    3B,

    I have lived in Bergen county for 25 years now and large parts are becoming dumpy.

    I had relatives in River Vale, Fair Lawn, Ho Ho Kus and Westwood growing up. I’ve been navigating those areas plus every back road from Closter to Oakland for a long time. I’m not arguing pro or con, just saying I remember all as well.

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exactly. It’s like I’m making this up or something. People questioning if I have ever left Jersey? I should be questioning them. No idea how they miss the appearance of these areas or maybe that is normal to them.

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 16, 2016 at 1:43 pm
    This may be one of the rare times when I agree with pumpkin head or whatever her/his name is at the moment. I drove to Florida, spent a few vacations there and was a little aghast at the poor looking conditions south of the D.C. area; cars abandon on the highway, the condition of roads and buildings, the overall appearance, etc. I also drove out to Western PA and had the same feeling.

    Of course, you’re going to ask to provide explicit details and so on but it’s just an overall vibe and experience that had me wanting to get back t civilization. I spent a few years in South Jersey, bought my first house just south of Toms River because my family previously had a second home there. Little did I know, living there full time and staying for week are two different things. The bottom line is that after I bought my first house and lived there year round, I couldn’t wait to sell the f.ucking joint by year two. Holy sh1t, I felt like I was in Alabama.

    I’ve also been to Southern Cal but not long enough to know what living there fulltime is like. I think I would be fine but let’s be honest, there is no place like the New York area. Yeah, the cost to live here is a killer but the quality of everything is second to none and nothing you guys tell me is going to convince me otherwise. And, just a small anecdote to supplement, my brother in law is here from Florida for the first time in four years. He grew up here and moved there when he was 40. We didn’t even reach the house from the airport and he’s telling me to find pizza, bagels, Italian bread and Italian pastries now! He says it still all sucks down there. I know, you’re going to ask me why he’s living there then and my answer is, I don’t know.

    The bottom line is that everything outside the Northeast is lacking, I’m sorry to disappoint you all. Outside of New York, Boston would be an alternative.

  61. Fast Eddie says:

    [61],

    Please don’t cut and paste every single line, it’s annoying.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You haven’t spoken to enough people, or they are lying to you.

    As for newark, those kind of “poor” areas are concentrated in nj (which is a great thing). Other states, they are spread out, all over the place. So you have to deal with their bs on a regular basis. Be careful what you ask for, if you think Bergen county is becoming a dump, then do not move to the south. You will be in for a rude awakening after those new developments start to age. Look at how old these homes are in Bergen county and guess what, they look pretty damn good for their age. You think these southern communities are going to upkeep their homes? ROTFL

    walking bye says:
    June 16, 2016 at 2:32 pm
    I’ve never heard of anyone complain about leaving NJ. In fact pumkin most folks were able to increase salaries to boot. As for areas outside of NJ looking run down, ever look out the window when flying into Newark? looks like a dump. Eddie ever go to the Shoprite in Hillsdale vs a supermarket in the south? Hillsdale looks like a 3rd world country.

  63. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    living in NJ hurts, but ain’t moving cause it feels so gooooooood….

    Simple Definition of masochism
    : enjoyment of pain : pleasure that someone gets from being abused or hurt; especially : sexual enjoyment from being hurt or punished

  64. Xolepa says:

    I ride through the local roads here in Hunterdon often, don’t care to take the main ones. One thing, when I move out of state, I will miss this area greatly, especially during the warmer months. Not many vistas around where you can view farms, barns, high end estates and have a general feeling of peace.
    Damn taxes. I would stay here, otherwise.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Great description and a truly gorgeous area.

    It’s terrible that they push retirees out of this state, but could you imagine the impact if this wasn’t the case. If they made this state retiree friendly, no one would ever sell their homes. What would the price of real estate be? It would have to be astronomical. Beach property would prop cost the equivalent of nyc penthouses. Every wealthy individual from the other high tax northeast states would be fighting each other to buy low tax nj real estate. Prices would be insane.

    Xolepa says:
    June 16, 2016 at 3:11 pm
    I ride through the local roads here in Hunterdon often, don’t care to take the main ones. One thing, when I move out of state, I will miss this area greatly, especially during the warmer months. Not many vistas around where you can view farms, barns, high end estates and have a general feeling of peace.
    Damn taxes. I would stay here, otherwise.

  66. Pumps – you missed/ignored the memo above. They left and you stayed.

    “Of all the age groups in New Jersey that experienced a net loss in population from 2007 to 2014, the highest rate was among people between the ages of 18 and 34, according to the business-lobbying organization.”

    It’s a cycle. Give it some time. They are being replaced with ambitious Millennials like myself.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    67- Yes, separating the winners from the losers in the Millennial generation. Losers were indirectly told to leave by not being able to afford it.

  68. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    Comparing living in Jersey to other parts of the country is insane. I have 4 sister and two brothers. So of the seven siblings, only three remain in Jersey. Oldest sister is in PA, second sister is in Portland, third sister is in Dayton, OH, fourth sister is in East Windsor, NJ. Oldest brother is in Moorestown, NJ. Next brother is in Columbus, OH. My father has lived in Jackson, Mississippi, Winter Park, FL and Altamonte Springs, FL. My mom lived in Jackson NJ and now Boynton Beach FL. Most of our close relatives lived in the JAP towns in Long Island and now live in Florida, though there’s a small contingency in Maryland still. I’ve also spent a fair amount of time in the suburbs of Indy. I have a lot of friends who live in Cali and spent some time in Northern Vermont.

    I don’t know what everyone thinks is really so great about NJ. I would argue that besides good pizza and bagels (and the pizza is decent in the midwest too) you are grossly overpaying for everything else.

    Of all of these places and a few others where I have spent some time, the best place to live, strictly from an affordability/ability to retire young/comfort point-of-view is Ohio. No place is as expensive as the Northeast. Not even close. And the schools argument is krap. There are good schools everywhere in this country. Wherever there are well off parents, there are decent public schools in the suburbs in which they live. The problem with NJ is truly the taxes and regulations. Yes, there is a lot of wealth, but I would argue that it’s strictly due to the proximity to NY. And due to this wealth, the public workers all believe they deserve to be in the 1% as well. For a while there, NJ was a bit more affordable, but since around 2000, the amount of income one needs to live here has gotten insane. Meanwhile, NJTransit has turned to complete sh1t. Traffic has gotten to the point where if I don’t leave Union by 3:30, it takes me 45 minutes to go the 18 miles home to Glen Ridge. And don’t think it’s all salaries and benefits. Has everyone noticed that every single police depot and rest area is being rebuilt along the NJTP and the GSP? Have you noticed all of the fancy new salt houses and maintenance yards? I almost puked when my son recently has a lax match across from the Essex County public works building in Cedar Grove. It looks like Lincoln Center. No wonder my salary can’t keep up with the costs of toll, tax and transit increases.

    I’ve flown nearly a half a million miles, mostly around this country, and if it weren’t for my super employer and how much I enjoy my job, I’d be outta here in two seconds. You can get the same lifestyle for half the price, and with a whole lot less stress, in lots of places in this country. And there are intelligent, intellectuals all over the country as well.

  69. Essex says:

    71. yeah. What he said.

  70. Essex says:

    54. Living in New York is one thing. Living in New Jersey is completely different.

  71. Or did the winners move to Manhattan and Brooklyn while the guys who cut and paste all day while trading micro-penny stocks never manage their way very far from the County Seat of Paterson?

    67- Yes, separating the winners from the losers in the Millennial generation. Losers were indirectly told to leave by not being able to afford it.

  72. I guess your property tax bill doesn’t allow many meals out?;-) Which one has the best price on Taylor Pork Roll? Just kidding. My wife was astounded that our Wegman’s in Chestnut Hill carries Taylor Pork Roll in all the different sizes. First time I’ve seen it for sale outside of NJ.

    Or, I could go to Market Basket, Fresh Market, Kings, Fairway, Whole Foods, Stop N Shop or three other Shoprite locations besides Hillsdale. Just saying. ;)

  73. Essex says:

    We can’t all be winners: http://youtu.be/_hPp4dgmrc8

  74. 3b says:

    69 I think you covered it all quite nicely!

  75. Alex says:

    Philadelphia just approved a 1.5 cent per ounce tax on soda. So a 12-pack of cola will now come with an extra $2.16 tax.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You summed it up right here, economic opportunity. That’s nj’s biggest offer.

    I also would not say that they offer the same lifestyle. Come on, you are better than this. Ohio offers nowhere near the same lifestyle as Jersey. Jersey is one of the few states that offer it all, and that’s why it is special. 24 hr anything. Change of seasons. And the biggest thing that ohio doesn’t have, access to the jersey shore. Place is flat and lacks character. It’s the definition of boring. You honestly take jersey and all it offers for granted.

    “I’ve flown nearly a half a million miles, mostly around this country, and if it weren’t for my super employer and how much I enjoy my job, I’d be outta here in two seconds. You can get the same lifestyle for half the price, and with a whole lot less stress, in lots of places in this country. And there are intelligent, intellectuals all over the country as well.”

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This really sums it up.

    “When I lived in the Midwest I did a boatload of community theatre, read entire books in a day, had no shortage of Scrabble foes, and learned to bake really well. We had a porch. I sat on it and was amazed to find that people would show up and talk to you. And listen. I made more friends (ages 15 to 85) than I did in all my years living in NJ. And there is no discounting the effect of being smiled at by the cashier on one’s sense of well being. On the downside? There was little in the way of economic opportunity. That’s where the NY/NJ nexus glitters — my wife calls it “the cash machine.” You don’t need to be in good with Earl’s uncle. You don’t need to congregate at the First or Second Baptist Church. NY/NJ is a genuine meritocracy. You got skills? You gotta good job.”

  78. Every good job in Boston starts with 3 weeks paid vacation, sometimes 4. That blew me away when I got my first job up here. If you work for a University (I don’t and never have) it works out to a lot more. I imagine it’s still two weeks to start in NY/NJ?

  79. Not the GreatPumpkinsky says:

    Pumpkin, I think you mean NYC, because its multi-industries & talent concentration.

    Sorry to say, NJ is across most fields, businesses and positions a “who you know state”.

    To put it another way. The northeaster NJ residents (NY Bedroom communities) are bitter New Yorkers that can’t afford NYC.

  80. grim says:

    Shrug I get 7 weeks paid. I sometimes imagine I’m in France.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nepotism happens anywhere and everywhere. If you think nj is a “who you know state”, try getting a job in small town America.

    Not the GreatPumpkinsky says:
    June 16, 2016 at 6:45 pm
    Pumpkin, I think you mean NYC, because its multi-industries & talent concentration.

    Sorry to say, NJ is across most fields, businesses and positions a “who you know state”.

    To put it another way. The northeaster NJ residents (NY Bedroom communities) are bitter New Yorkers that can’t afford NYC.

  82. D-FENS says:

    Pass the apples and hard boiled eggs please. I have a propert tax bill to pay.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    True for some, but not for all. I like the economic benefits that NYC brings, but I like living in Jersey for the lifestyle. Like I said earlier, I like suburban wooded communities that have good schools with access to the nyc economic machine while being an hour or two to the jersey shore (or everything for that matter). Jersey is awesome. Small state that packs a lot of punch.

    “To put it another way. The northeaster NJ residents (NY Bedroom communities) are bitter New Yorkers that can’t afford NYC.”

  84. No One says:

    Cankles,
    I lived and worked in Winter Park, FL for 7 years. Very nice area, and would take that over most NJ cities, from a restaurant and entertainment perspective, let alone the cost. But fancy homes on a lake is extra-pricey there.

  85. 3b says:

    86 pumps most people who live in New Jersey work in New Jersey and that includes north Jersey.

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    87- Exactly what I stated earlier today. Cherry picking locations in other states and then stating they are as nice/nicer than jersey. Similar price and taxes as desirable towns in Jersey without the economic opportunity.

    Like previously stated, if it’s an affluent area, it doesn’t matter what state it is, it will have high prices combined with high taxes. Sure move here, but don’t claim you are moving here for a lower cost of living.

    If you are going to move to the “true” low cost of living areas in other states that bring down their cost of living avgs, YOU WON’T WANT TO LIVE THERE. Just like NJ has low cost of living areas, but guess what, YOU DON’T WANT TO LIVE THERE. Nj gets the high cost of living card thrown at it because a majority of the state is highly wealthy. Town after town of wealth. Hard to find anywhere in the U.S. That’s why nj is regularly in the top 3 for richest states in the nation.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Winter-Park-FL/pmf,pf_pt/46145310_zpid/34884_rid/28.641033,-81.265097,28.559194,-81.432639_rect/12_zm/

  87. 3b says:

    78 ny is the job machine not nj. Even some of the old rusty cities of upstate n y are showing some economic life. Every city in nj is a shite hole! We have lost telecom and pharmaceuticals.

  88. 3b says:

    89 there are many places that have reasonable prices and reasonable taxes. You assume high prices and high taxes means better. You assume wrong.

  89. Fabius Maximus says:

    #69 Lib,

    Last time I was in Dayton OH, I picked up the phone directory, 12 pages of churches and 2 pages of Bowling Alleys. Pretty much summed up that place.

    Mrs Fab went to Ohio State for grad school. I was in Columbus a while back and went out for dinner. I went on Yelp and found a place with 450 reviews and 4.5 stars. I went and it was not bad, but not great. When I got home, I told Mrs Fab and she reminded me that it was 450 Ohioans reviewing the place!
    I suppose its like reading the reviews for the Olive Garden in Times Square.

  90. Fabius Maximus says:

    Lib,

    I am working with your Carl, but don’t think it will happen. I have to do some quick credit clean up and have to get him a letter to re-score. But with that. My guy pulled a move that has him in front of the pack. Ran the normal numbers, but worked out that if I drop below 20%, the credit risk improves and it is putting him 0.125% ahead of the rest. Running the numbers even with the 12 month PMI and reappraisal, he still comes out ahead.

  91. grim says:

    Go long soda stream in philly.

    I’m going to start smuggling mt dew

  92. Fabius Maximus says:

    I would so love to have Shores view on this. He always said that he would quite happily pull the lever for Hil ahead of O. Now that the reality is hitting I would like to know if that conviction with the moderate GOP still holds.

    If anyone is still in contact with him, please ask.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/richard-armitage-endorses-clinton-224431

  93. Essex says:

    Curry ejected….,LeBron domimated

  94. Essex says:

    94. Ohio is not the only alternative…

  95. Essex says:

    92. we still haven’t quite lost it all thankfully

  96. Tonight, tonight the strip’s just right
    I wanna blow ’em off in my first heat
    Summer’s here and the time is right
    For racing on Punkin’s street

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