June HousingTrends

From the Otteau Group:

NJ Purchase Contracts Rise Again in May

Home purchase demand in New Jersey increased for the 21st consecutive month in May rising to nearly 11,000 home-purchase contracts. This was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of May since 2005, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the same month one year ago. Considering the 15% increase (y-o-y) in May of 2015, home sales in the month of May have increased by more than 24% over the past 2 years.

On a year-to-date basis (January-May) home purchase demand in New Jersey continues to expand, increasing by 17%. The majority of this year’s increase has been concentrated in homes priced below $400,000, as first-time ‘Millennial’ buyers begin to transition from rentership to homeownership, while the number of contracts concentrated in luxury homes priced higher than $2,500,000 has declined by 3%. Reasons for this trend include a greater number of younger-age first home buyers, trade-down purchases by older-age empty-nesters, and relaxed mortgage lending standards which have reduced minimum down-payment amounts.

Shifting to the supply side of the equation, the supply of homes being offered for sale continues to be relatively low which is limiting choices for home buyers. The number of New Jersey homes being offered for sale declined by more than 4,000 (-7%) in May compared to one year ago. This is about 21,000 (-28%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 4.8 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is lower than one year ago when it was 5.7 months.

Currently, the majority (86%) of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson County is presently experiencing the strongest market conditions in the state with fewer than 3 months of supply, followed by Essex, Morris, Union and Somerset Counties, which all have fewer than 4 months of supply. None of the counties have an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 12 months or greater, however those with the largest amount of unsold inventory are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cape May (10.1), Cumberland (10.7) and Atlantic (11.6).

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

63 Responses to June HousingTrends

  1. Anon E. Moose says:

    First! Good Morning, New Jersey. Good Morning, Mike.

  2. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [32, yesterday];

    The HRV is basically the same size as the X3 – probably also a chick car. On paper the bmw edges out in space, but parked next to each other, there is no way the x3 has more. The HRV has more trunk space, and with the seats down has much more usable cargo. It fits the dogs and other junk.

    Even if the X3 has Chick Magnet status over the HRV, there surely are some chicks that dig the “save the environment” angle over the “BSD with cash to blow” angle, once you get past the ones who don’t shave. Its possible I played the “anon” angle to get laid once or twice in college, though it was physically painful acting that stupid, and depressing how “concern” was so easily faked and easily bought by the intended parties, leading me to believe all such “concern” is equally bogus.

    In any case, once you’re out from under $250 oil changes and $1,000 headlight bulb replacements, you have some disposable cash to spend on whatever chicks you want. Winning!

  3. D-FENS says:

    Just slap a Trump 2016 bumper sticker on it. That’ll get ya laid.

  4. Grim says:

    Pretty sure my wife won’t approve

  5. 1987 Condo says:

    So the gas tax is really a percentage tax at 12.5% that can eventually top out at $0.52 per gallon…?

    “Under one of the bills, the state would levy a 12.5 percent tax on petroleum products that refineries are expected to pass onto the consumer. At current prices, that amounts to nearly 23 cents on every gallon of gas on top of the existing 14.5 cent-per-gallon tax.

    The tax wouldn’t be charged against pre-tax gas prices over $3, so the per gallon gas tax would never exceed more than 52 cents per gallon, which is unlikely based on projections for gas prices”

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/06/nj_lawmakers_introduce_23_cent_increase_in_gas_tax.html

  6. Yep. Slap it on while fuel is reasonably priced, pay forever at much higher rates.

    So the gas tax is really a percentage tax at 12.5% that can eventually top out at $0.52 per gallon…?

  7. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    D-FENS [3];

    Just slap a Trump 2016 bumper sticker on it. That’ll get ya laid.

    Considering the Pajama Boys that inhabit the left, I’m not the least bit surprised a lady in need would cross the aisle for satisfaction.

  8. heh-heh. I like being politically incorrect at work, but you have to choose your audience carefully. A woman at work (probably mid-40’s, attractive, I know her well) was talking to someone else that I wanted to talk to, so I just waited until their conversation finished. The woman eventually turned to me and said, “Do you want me?” and I quickly replied, “I do, but I have to clear it with my wife first.”

    Pretty sure my wife won’t approve

  9. Amerigeddon says:

    Some good gun/ammo sales this weekend.

  10. Mike was beaten to death by two Mexicans. He was playing pinochle and someone heard him say “trump”.

    First! Good Morning, New Jersey. Good Morning, Mike.

  11. Amerigeddon says:

    Was in the Peoples’ Republic of Ithaca yesterday. Businesses really singing the blues there. Town seems overtaken by skate punks and homeless.

  12. Amerigeddon says:

    Know what really cheeses me off? White people with dreadlocks.

  13. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    Clot [12];

    Town seems overtaken by skate punks and homeless

    That’s just the trustifarian Cornell students. They smell bad but they’re generally harmless. If they had any ambition as anti-social “community organizers” they’re be among the Screeching Campus Garbage Babies at Yale.

  14. chi says:

    You need to expand your product line……wines is a shrinking industry…..how are you supposed to service the new injection clinics?

    Amerigeddon says:
    July 1, 2016 at 8:41 am
    Was in the Peoples’ Republic of Ithaca yesterday. Businesses really singing the blues there. Town seems overtaken by skate punks and homeless.

  15. chi says:

    Community Outreach Award (clot Edition):

    Now he’s the one in deep doo-doo.

    A feces-flinging fanatic who attacked two women on Monday has been captured in a Brooklyn homeless shelter after cops received a tip late Thursday, sources said.

    Charges are pending against the man, who was being questioned at Manhattan’s Special Victims Unit in East Harlem. He has not yet been identified.

    In the first attack, a 33-year-old woman was walking when she was struck by feces in the face and torso at about 4:30 p.m. in front of 67 E. 91st St.

    Then, at about 6 p.m., a 27-year-old woman was walking on East 74th Street near First Avenue when a man came up from behind, grabbed her by the waist and made a dung deposit down her pants.

    He grabbed her buttocks and then tossed what appeared to be a pair of gloves on the sidewalk and fled.

    “It’s the same person,” Chief of Detectives Robert Boyce said Thursday. “You can tell by video clips we got…we’ll arrest him as soon as we can. One time he smeared the other time he threw (feces). Very deranged person from what we can tell.”

  16. Cornell, Yale, brings this to mind:

    My best friend is an attorney (he’s run his own one-man shop since graduating Seton Hall Law, lest you get the wrong idea). Anyway, he was at some conference a short time ago and he mentioned my name to another attorney, a woman, and she knew me and said so. My friend immediately called me on his cell phone and put her on the phone to talk to me. What a crazy, different life this woman has lead.

    I knew her for less than a year. I was 18 years old, working at McDonalds some weekends and also during the Summer while attending Rutgers. She was probably 21 or 22 and was one of the two managers at the store. She was a really, really hard worker and also a real hard-ass as a manager. I remember being in awe of how freaking serious she was when I knew nobody my age that was like that. I believe this is how her life turned out, some of it is conjecture:

    She stayed a McDonald’s manager until she was 35 years old. She then went to Cornell for 4 years, then immediately went to Yale Law, graduating from both institutions at or near the top of her class (editor of Yale Law Journal). Several years later she married the now divorced owner of the McDonalds franchise (who owned four stores) where she had previously worked. The story that plays out in my mind is she was having a long-time affair with the old guy, his wife found out. He fired her, but actually stashed her in Ithaca, and subsequently in New Haven, as a kept woman. He died a few years ago and now she is very successful finance attorney at a major NYC firm and has a house in Short Hills. McDonalds should use her to promote the opportunities that avail themselves when you’re lovin’ it.

  17. [17] I may have told this story before, but the other manager at that McDonalds, also in his early 20’s when I knew him, is still a manager at that same McDonalds. Coincidently, I took my wife and kids there a few years ago and saw him working the counter. Same hair, same mustache, but now white instead of red. We ate in the room that has the climbing gym and I couldn’t be sure while I stared at him, but then a young guy came into the room to change out the garbage can liner so I asked him if the manager’s name was Mark and if he’d been there since the beginning of time. He answered affirmatively to both questions. As we were leaving I went up to him and shook his hand and talked to him. He was the one who told me the other manager had become a lawyer. It was only a couple months later when my friend put me on the phone with her.

  18. Amerigeddon says:

    Here’s my candidate for the next country to peace out on the EU:

    “As we noted today, the rumors of an Italian bank bailout, which started on Monday morning, and were promptly shot down by Merkel the next day, got louder after a Reuters report that the Italian government is considering more creative ways to inject liquidity into Italy’s banks. However that was just an appetizer to a main course, which came later today when as the WSJ reported citing a spokeswoman for the European Union’s executive arm that the “European Commission has authorized Italy to use government guarantees to create a precautionary liquidity support program for their banks.”

    How did this happen so quietly under the table and without Merkel’s blessing? WSJ says that the program was approved under the bloc’s “extraordinary crisis rules for state aid.”

    And here we thought that Italy’s banks are actually doing so very well. Oh wait, no we didn’t.

    As the WSJ notes, the proposed “crisis” plan is the “other leg of an intervention plan considered by the government” namely, the direct capital injection into Italian banks that would add up to €40 billion in capital to the banking sector”, the one we profiled previously. It is also the plan that Merkel supposedly shut down before it got off the ground. However, Europe had a Plan B up its sleeve.”

  19. Amerigeddon says:

    moose (14)-

    The Cornell students are the Asian kids who shuffle down the street, staring at their shoes.

  20. Amerigeddon says:

    chi (15)-

    I’d love to figure out a way to IV good red Burgundy.

  21. Amerigeddon says:

    chi (16)-

    People like this guy give local neighborhoods their unique flavor.

  22. Amerigeddon says:

    expat (17)-

    That’s just plain wrong…on soooo many levels.

    Humans are really sick motherfcukers. We really need our ranks thinned out a bit.

  23. grim says:

    Dreadlocks are still a thing with white people?

    Wow, surprising, haven’t see that in years.

    Come to think of it, haven’t seen many people with dreadlocks at all.

  24. chicagofinance says:

    Lots of music down in Monmouth County……I’ve seen dreads on the mailman on Broad Street, Starbucks, and Whole Foods…….musicians that day work for the bene’s….

    grim says:
    July 1, 2016 at 10:32 am
    Dreadlocks are still a thing with white people?

    Wow, surprising, haven’t see that in years.

    Come to think of it, haven’t seen many people with dreadlocks at all.

  25. grim says:

    UB40 at the shore?

  26. grim says:

    Bad joke, even UB40 doesn’t wear dreadlocks anymore.

  27. Juice Box digging his own grave says:

    re@ 27 – More likely it’s the shore Trustafarians, strumming guitars for coins. Who needs a day job anyway?

  28. 1987 Condo says:

    #25..see First baseman for the Pirates.

  29. Juice Box digging his own grave says:

    re # 26 – Chi – we do have some the best Hipsters in Monmouth. I regularly chat them up at Whole Foods and around town most are from middle class are pretty grounded and have no desire to move away just to create “art” on the L train in Brooklyn.

  30. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    Grim [25];

    Dreadlocks are still a thing with white people?

    Last time I saw it in person on a social level was some burnt out Boomer hippie at a friend’s wedding in Cincinnati maybe 10 years ago.

    I thought it has since become a hanging offense with the BLM crowd for “cultural appropriation”.

  31. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    Geddon [21];

    The Cornell students are the Asian kids who shuffle down the street, staring at their shoes.

    They can’t ALL be Asians — leftys have quotas and those work both ways.

    What about the Ithaca College kids? I couldn’t imagine attending the ‘other’ school in place like Ithaca, or New Haven…

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    Does Ithaca really exist?

  33. nwnj3 says:

    So the latest degenerate is a serial shlt smearer? Will this be know as the Summer of Shit?

    After sitting through insufferable traffic on what should have been breeze of an evening(Summer, non descript weekday, etc.) on the way to Shea(err Citi Field) and hearing of the latest creeper to be victimizing people at random, I’m reminded again why I would never want to live in that city.

  34. Juice Box digging his own grave says:
  35. grim says:

    I thought it has since become a hanging offense with the BLM crowd for “cultural appropriation”.

    Right on, someone needs to stop Brooklyn’s historical appropriation.

  36. [35] Yes. Oneonta? Not so much.

    Does Ithaca really exist?

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Goals for Bank Street schools…………K0C = kids of color……segr5gates whites and others into two groups…..

  38. chicagofinance says:

    We are all becoming Wall-E

    DVD player found in Tesla car in Florida crash, authorities say

  39. chicagofinance says:

    Meanwhile, the driver of the Tesla car that crashed into a tractor-trailer had the vehicle on autopilot and was watching a “Harry Potter” video, Paul Weekley, a Tampa lawyer for the truck driver, said on Friday.

    “There was a portable DVD player in the vehicle,” said Sergeant Kim Montes of the Florida Highway Patrol in a telephone interview.

  40. Grim says:

    Worthless DoJ

  41. Grim says:

    First Holder now this? What’s the point?

  42. Amerigeddon says:

    Don’t believe me? How about Kyle Bass, then?

    “Williams: What’s your current thinking on gold? Because I know it’s something you’ve had thoughts in the past, but it’s not something I’ve heard you talk about for a while.

    Bass: Yeah. I look at Global M2, being just under a hundred trillion. And the total amount of mined gold in world history is somewhere around seven trillion. And there’s about…and then gold that’s kind of in circulation in use. We studied…we did a deep dive on gold a few years ago. They call it the yellow metal that has no yield, but with the entire world going to negative rates, then on a relative basis, it’s probably one of the better currencies to own. I buy that wholeheartedly. And seeing which way the central banks are going, you’re going to have to own something.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/kyle-bass-shares-stunning-thing-central-banker-once-told-him

  43. Amerigeddon says:

    moose (33)-

    IC kids are the normal ones.

  44. Amerigeddon says:

    It’s all turning to shit, folks. Smoke ’em if you got ’em.

  45. Amerigeddon says:

    Kyle Bass: “Look, I had a fascinating out of body experience meeting with one of the world’s top central bankers in a private meeting about three years ago. And he said, “You know Kyle, quantitative easing only works when you’re the only country doing it.” He would never say that publicly. And I’ll protect his name, because it was a private meeting. But it was one of those moments where I…it was one of those epiphanies almost, where it’s something you and I knew, but hearing him say it, call it one of the four top central bankers in the world, it was a jarring experience for me, because when I look around the world today, everyone’s in the same boat. So we’re all trying…we’re attempting through our treasury and our Fed to get the rest of the world to not devalue against us, while we quietly attempt to devalue ourselves against them, and it’s all this…it is the race to the bottom, it is the beggar thy neighbor policies that we all talk about. And I believe that there is no way out.”

  46. Amerigeddon says:

    Too bad punkin’ isn’t around for us to shove this little turd into his piehole:

    “And just like that, the grim picture of the “minimum wage hike effect” is starting to be appreciated by all, and explains why over the past few months even the BLS has reported that average work hours have been shrinking, incidentally something we warned about over a year ago when the topic of minimum wage increases first emerged. Because as was obvious all along, the simple math is that as mandatory wages rise, there is far less “success” to be shared.

    To be sure Starbucks is neither the first nor the last corporation to show its true colors. One year ago we reported that “Economics 102: WalMart Cuts Worker Hours After Hiking Minimum Wages”, and just four weeks ago we followed up that “Half Of Washington DC Employers Have Cut Jobs, Hours Due To Minimum Wage Increases – And It’s Going To Get Worse.”

    The Starbucks news confirms just that; expect much more.

    Meanwhile, we can only hope that more realize that politicians pandering to populism by conducting a phony “war on inequality” via minimum wage propaganda is merely serving their corporate overlords. Because as Starbucks employees are the latest to learn the hard way, as wages go up, all in comp is rapidly dropping while layoffs are rising. Maybe next time Obama mandates a minimum wage to show how much he cares about the “little worker”, he should also issue an executive order requiring minimum hours too. Naturally, that would merely unleash even more central-planning hell, but in a world in which the central banks already control everything, why the hell not?”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-01/something-unexpected-happened-after-starbucks-raised-minimum-wages

  47. Amerigeddon says:

    expat (50)-

    My Mom drank Jack Daniels and smoked three packs a day while preggers with me. I used to tell her all the time that she destroyed my generation’s Einstein.

  48. Amerigeddon says:

    Now, I’m no more than a fat, 57 y/o white guy, yelling into cyberspace. And no one listens.

  49. Amerigeddon says:

    I went from an in-vitro Einstein to a real-life Hobo With a Shotgun.

  50. Amerigeddon says:

    Please take away my whiskey when the UST10 is in negative territory.

  51. Amerigeddon says:

    In the meantime, don’t mind the foaming green spittle crevassing my chin and spilling onto my Nik-Nik shirt.

  52. Amerigeddon says:

    Buy physical silver. Buy physical gold. If I’m laid out on the couch, put the “Return” button under my thumb, then smash my thumb onto it with a hammer.

  53. Amerigeddon says:

    When the UST is the most crowded one-way trade in history, I shall put down the drink and commence upon the last rational act of my scarred and blighted life.

  54. Amerigeddon says:

    So I’m guessing all the regulars here on on the way out to Cabela’s on 78…

  55. grim says:

    Dick Dale’s Ring of Fire is far superior to Johnny Nash’s version.

  56. leftwing says:

    46-49:

    The most effective place to hide something is out in the open.

    Ithaca, Oneonta, and the like are the reality. We are the chimera that will revert to norm.

    On that note, enjoy the illusion of a prosperous 4th. I leave shortly for a couple of weeks to hike some glaciers that actually survived the Carboniferous Period, and to possibly be surrounded by half the population of a country, drunk, on Parliament Square depending on tomorrow’s UEFA.

    For Clot on Monday, instead of the usual patriotic poetic drivel:

    The Gods of the Copybook Headings

    AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
    I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
    Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

    We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
    That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
    But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
    So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

    We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
    Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
    But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
    That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

    With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
    They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
    They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
    So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

    When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
    They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
    But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”

    On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
    (Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
    Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

    In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
    By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
    But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

    Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
    And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
    That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

    As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
    There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
    That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
    And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

    And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
    When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
    As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
    The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

  57. Amerigeddon says:

    Very nice. Sort of a highbrow Casey at the Bat.

  58. Amerigeddon says:

    There is no joy in Mudville tonight…

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