Corelogic: Prices rise in May (But not in NJ)

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic: Home prices keep rising, demand not letting up

Home prices in May are up both monthly and annually, according to the Home Price Index and HPI Forecast released today by CoreLogic.

Overall, home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 5.9% from last year, and 1.6% from April, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

“Housing remained an oasis of stability in May with home prices rising year over year between 5% and 6% for 22 consecutive months,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. “The consistently solid growth in home prices has been driven by the highest resale activity in nine years and a still-tight housing inventory.”

It does not seem like the demand will let up any time soon, as the industry continues to predict that mortgage rates will drop still further. In the wake of the United Kingdom’s shocking decision to leave the European Union, experts throughout the U.S. housing industry weighed in on the potential impact of the Brexit.

The general consensus among those experts is that mortgage interest rates will go down, but just how low? Here’s the prediction from Fitch Ratings.

“CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains,” Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon said. “With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue to come under upwards pressure.”

The HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. The values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

The HPI Forecast showed that prices will increase by 5.3% annually by May 2017, and by 0.8% month-over-month in June 2016.

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68 Responses to Corelogic: Prices rise in May (But not in NJ)

  1. grim says:

    Three states saw prices fall year over year in May.

    Connecticut -0.9%
    New Jersey -0.2%
    Pennsylvania -0.1%

    On an MSA perspective, NY Metro is still rising:

    New York-Jersey City-White Plains NY-NJ 2.3%

  2. Lib, Chi – from yesterday – VMC 5 year growth (and I quoted 21.85%, not 24%) is not from me, it is an average of the 2 analysts(out of 15 covering the company) that furnish a 5 year growth number. When it comes equities, momentum plays are pretty much what I do. I primarily buy S&P 500 stocks that have hit a new 52 week high in the last 5 days. Right now I’m on the sidelines when it comes to new equity purchases because my screens are consistently telling me to buy T, VZ, just about all S&P 500 Utilities and about half of all S&P 500 Staples. Seems to me that is the side of the boat everyone is already on. When the crowd follows me, I get scared and go the other way. I have 7 figures parked in CDs right now including a 15 year 2.524% 15 year CD.

    CHI…Gamble at best from a fundamental perspective. In 2006, when earnings were last what they are now, valuation was about the same. Then it imploded. 5 year growth estimates at 24%? Find that hard to swallow. It’s fully valued right here IMO. Though as a momentum play, it could run further. Nate’s is getting cheap again. :P

  3. I think certain REITs will be king in this interest rate environment. Disclosure: I already have positions in O and DLR.

  4. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    grim didn’t you ban all this pennystock bullcrap?

    let Chifi swindle elsewhere

  5. chi says:

    anon….chill OK?

    GOP’s broken (the good one) says:
    July 6, 2016 at 7:59 am
    grim didn’t you ban all this pennystock bullcrap?

    let Chifi swindle elsewhere

  6. chi says:

    ex: remember that hedge fund guy…….he is up 21.54% through 6/30 YTD…..SOB! He was up high single digits 2015….

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 7:06 am
    Lib, Chi – from yesterday – VMC 5 year growth (and I quoted 21.85%, not 24%) is not from me, it is an average of the 2 analysts(out of 15 covering the company) that furnish a 5 year growth number. When it comes equities, momentum plays are pretty much what I do. I primarily buy S&P 500 stocks that have hit a new 52 week high in the last 5 days. Right now I’m on the sidelines when it comes to new equity purchases because my screens are consistently telling me to buy T, VZ, just about all S&P 500 Utilities and about half of all S&P 500 Staples. Seems to me that is the side of the boat everyone is already on. When the crowd follows me, I get scared and go the other way. I have 7 figures parked in CDs right now including a 15 year 2.524% 15 year CD.

    CHI…Gamble at best from a fundamental perspective. In 2006, when earnings were last what they are now, valuation was about the same. Then it imploded. 5 year growth estimates at 24%? Find that hard to swallow. It’s fully valued right here IMO. Though as a momentum play, it could run further. Nate’s is getting cheap again. :P

  7. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    its your rules. y’all panties got on fire with Michael’s stock picks, ain’t?

    chi says:
    July 6, 2016 at 8:07 am
    anon….chill OK?

    GOP’s broken (the good one) says:
    July 6, 2016 at 7:59 am
    grim didn’t you ban all this pennystock bullcrap?

    let Chifi swindle elsewhere

  8. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    BTW, divideds should be taxed as regular income

    “Capital gains and corporate stock dividends are taxed at lower rates than the wages and salaries most of us live on. This is why some billionaire investors like Warren Buffett are able to pay effective tax rates that are lower than what their secretaries pay. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 68 percent of this tax break went to the richest 1 percent of Americans in 2013.”

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume, somewhere in NC says:

    [7] twitiot

    Suddenly you’re all consumed about falsehoods, mispresentations, and lies?

    That’s rich.

  10. grim says:

    BTW, divideds should be taxed as regular income

    Possibly, but I think there would be some significant repercussions for those on fixed incomes that rely on dividend income.

    I suspect that what you would see if dividends were taxed as ordinary income, is that many companies would eliminate their dividends, and instead repurchase equity.

    While some would see this as a net neutral operation – both should technically result in the same benefit to shareholders, I suspect that in reality that person on the fixed income would see less payout as transaction fees would eat into that income, not to mention the additional tax hit.

    I think the wealthy would find strategies to minimize the tax implications, but I do not believe those strategies would be available to Joe Sixpack.

    Good idea, but I don’t think we really understand what the implications would be. I can tell you that if you are assuming that dividends would remain on-par with today, and we would simply yield more tax revenue, that’s wildly incorrect.

    In addition, we face a negative economic impact that would need to be balanced with some completely new tax benefit to encourage investment in new companies. Perhaps a reduced capital gains tax on shares purchased at IPO? But I imagine this too would be easily gamed by the wealthy.

  11. grim says:

    Personally, I’m for an equity trade tax, or a financial trade tax, some minuscule percentage of the total trade value, on both the purchase and sale. Something completely inconsequential to Joe Sixpack, like a hundreth of a percent.

  12. grim says:

    Or expand the SEC Section 31 assessment on futures to all tradable financial instruments.

  13. grim says:

    I think the last estimate I saw was that about 50% of people over 65 report dividend income on their tax returns.

  14. grim says:

    You could play a game where you change the definition of qualified dividend to be 1 year, and not 60 days. This would grandfather most retiree owners of dividend paying stocks. However, the tax benefit of this game would likely be temporary. Not to mention it creates an incentive to hold poorly performing dividend stocks, which would have longer-term economic impacts.

  15. chi says:

    I don’t recall taking issue with Michael putting forward penny stock crap as an activity as much as what he was pitching was garbage…..so to the extent he was saying something I felt was clearly a bad idea, I responded…..the actual touts are annoying, but I easily ignore him anyway, so I didn’t really care……that is just my memory….

    GOP’s broken (the good one) says:
    July 6, 2016 at 8:12 am
    its your rules. y’all panties got on fire with Michael’s stock picks, ain’t?

    chi says:
    July 6, 2016 at 8:07 am
    anon….chill OK?

    GOP’s broken (the good one) says:
    July 6, 2016 at 7:59 am
    grim didn’t you ban all this pennystock bullcrap?

    let Chifi swindle elsewhere

  16. [6] chi – I was thinking about him recently.

    ex: remember that hedge fund guy…….he is up 21.54% through 6/30 YTD…..SOB! He was up high single digits 2015….

  17. Alex says:

    8-

    I wonder how anon would react if they started taxing tweets.

  18. grim – We already have that, reg fees, but it is on sales only right now. It works out to a little North of 0.002%. I wouldn’t mind seeing that fee double, especially if we make sure all those HFT algos pay.

    Personally, I’m for an equity trade tax, or a financial trade tax, some minuscule percentage of the total trade value, on both the purchase and sale. Something completely inconsequential to Joe Sixpack, like a hundreth of a percent.

  19. Back to RE. I’m seriously considering selling and going back to renting. My kids are both in Boston Latin, so I need to stay a Boston resident which means rent will be hefty, but I’m still considering it.

  20. anon, like most liberals, is completely devoid of math skills. Somehow he thinks that pumping a stock that trades $300 worth of stock a day is equal to casual conversation about blue chips (I would say what the market cap of a blue chip is, but that would throw anon into the standard liberal million, billion, trillion, zillion, million, billion, trillion, zillion epileptic fit that always ends with “you have to pay your fair share!”)

  21. WTF? Obama just said we need a political agreement between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban?

  22. Juice Box digging his own grave ( joys of home ownership) says:

    Robin Hood Tax on Wall Street

    http://www.robinhoodtax.org/

  23. Who will win euro 2016? IMHO final will be Wales vs Germany/France. I have no idea what to bet.

  24. [23] heh-heh.


    New Jersey’s property taxes hypothetically could fall 25% and the Garden State would still have the highest tax bills in the nation.

  25. [23]Alaska and Vermont – Is this because of the lack of big business, so economies of scale don’t apply?

    Nationally, the average annual health insurance cost per employee is
    9,736. Below are the top five highest-cost states for employee health insurance:
    1. Alaska: $12,822
    2. New York: $12,162
    3. New Jersey: $12,059
    4. Vermont: $11,920
    5. Massachusetts: $11,468

  26. grim says:

    26 – Petroleum industry pushing up the averages?

  27. grim says:

    Or maybe remote access means cases are typically more serious when presented? eg – little option for preventative care?

  28. walking bye says:

    Grim, maybe higher medical reimbursement to physicians? Given a choice of California lets say or Alaska what would the average person choose?

  29. chicagofinance says:

    from doc
    Losing the millennials
    The topic of out-migration typically makes people think of retirees, or extremely
    wealthy individuals. Millennials often aren’t considered during that conversation. Many
    people think of millennials as the demographic group that will remain in New Jersey
    footing the bill” of the fleeing retirees.
    However, this “dine and dash” concept only works if millennials are still sitting around
    the table waiting for the check — and have deep enough pockets to pay the bills.
    Unfortunately for the state of New Jersey, many of the millennials have already left the
    restaurant.
    The American Community Survey tells us that from 2007-2014, the 18-29 year-old age
    group was the largest group of residents leaving New Jersey.

  30. chicagofinance says:

    also
    Losing David Tepper
    Unfortunately, the attractiveness of the Garden State isn’t always enough to retain
    wealthy individuals here as taxpayers. In March of 2016, New Jersey got a surprise
    message from its wealthiest resident, David Tepper. He announced plans to leave the
    state as a taxpayer as of the end of 2015. Tepper, age 58, is the owner and founder of
    the hedge fund Appaloosa Management. His estimated net worth is in excess of $11
    billion.
    The loss of Tepper is extremely significant and should act as a wake-up call for New
    Jersey. The taxes lost due to Tepper’s departure will be staggering. The figure is
    exponentially more significant when you consider that Tepper is relatively young. New
    Jersey has likely lost the ability to collect state income taxes from Tepper for 30+ years
    due to his migration to a lower tax haven.
    The out-migration of someone like Tepper may seem like it doesn’t move the needle
    much for New Jersey because it is only one family relocating. However, it’s actually
    more meaningful that many people realize. Why?
    New Jersey relies on personal income taxes for 40% of its revenue
    Less than1% of New Jersey taxpayers contribute one-third of all personal
    income tax revenue collected

  31. chicagofinance says:

    really? You don’t think NYC & Boston will get a post-Brexit bump? They seem prime candidates for it……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 9:10 am
    Back to RE. I’m seriously considering selling and going back to renting. My kids are both in Boston Latin, so I need to stay a Boston resident which means rent will be hefty, but I’m still considering it.

  32. chicagofinance says:

    also, some of the London based bank jobs get repatriated to NYC/Bos?

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agreed, he would be making a bad move. Going to see rising rents while missing out on housing gains. Make no sense at all.

    chicagofinance says:
    July 6, 2016 at 12:12 pm
    really? You don’t think NYC & Boston will get a post-Brexit bump? They seem prime candidates for it……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 9:10 am
    Back to RE. I’m seriously considering selling and going back to renting. My kids are both in Boston Latin, so I need to stay a Boston resident which means rent will be hefty, but I’m still considering it.

  34. [36] Pumpking must labor all day to hold his tongue, but like in life, he fails. BTW Pumpking, you know that chifi rents and is being facetious in his comments, right?

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exactly, it’s a startup, not a blue chip. That’s why you can make a shi! load of money if you are lucky enough to find the right play. The stock has a low float, just paid off 3 out of 4 convertible notes, outstanding share structure, own manufacturing line at ABCO, and is about to get this party started with a contract. The owner of ABCO is on the nhmd’s board. Laugh all you want, but this is an otc gem that only comes around a few times in a life time. Most pennies are sucker plays, but there are a few gems that do come around like Monster energy for example. So laugh at me and think I’m some know nothing sucker, but we will let time be the judge of that.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 9:22 am
    anon, like most liberals, is completely devoid of math skills. Somehow he thinks that pumping a stock that trades $300 worth of stock a day is equal to casual conversation about blue chips (I would say what the market cap of a blue chip is, but that would throw anon into the standard liberal million, billion, trillion, zillion, million, billion, trillion, zillion epileptic fit that always ends with “you have to pay your fair share!”)

  36. joyce says:

    Hillary Clinton vs. James Comey: Email Scandal
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbkS26PX4rc

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    So why do you think Boston or NYC won’t see a move up in the next few years? The writing is on the wall, no idea why he is being facetious about this issue. Selling now will most likely be a terrible move….just my two cents.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 12:50 pm
    [36] Pumpking must labor all day to hold his tongue, but like in life, he fails. BTW Pumpking, you know that chifi rents and is being facetious in his comments, right?

  38. [41] You feel that way because you are trapped with no options. You have no ability to judge or observe a market without bias, because your bet is set in stone. Buy some more pancake in a can and enjoy the drag races out front and don’t worry.

  39. [39] Pumpking’s definition of low float: the change you find on the ground while walking to your car.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If I felt that we were in a bubble, I would definitely liquidate and wait for the fall to buy back in. We are not even close to a bubble, so I’ll hold and continue to collect lucrative rental income from future renters like yourself. Go rent hotshot. Sell it off and become a renter paying extreme prices so that your future landlord can laugh his way to the bank.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2016 at 1:01 pm
    [41] You feel that way because you are trapped with no options. You have no ability to judge or observe a market without bias, because your bet is set in stone. Buy some more pancake in a can and enjoy the drag races out front and don’t worry.

  41. [44]This will make a great time capsule:

    If I felt that we were in a bubble, I would definitely liquidate and wait for the fall to buy back in. We are not even close to a bubble, so I’ll hold and continue to collect lucrative rental income from future renters like yourself. Go rent hotshot. Sell it off and become a renter paying extreme prices so that your future landlord can laugh his way to the bank.

  42. BTW, Is anybody interested in the Pumpking’s bubble metrics? Please tell us what would tell you that RE is in a bubble? Here’s what I think the Pumpking would use as an absolute determining factor of a bubble: “I just got divorced and had to sell my house and Nana’s house as part of the settlement. This was perfect timing by me because the bubble is about to pop and I just sold at the top. Because I’m that smart.”

  43. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    @NYTimes

    The ex-Fox News anchor Gretchen Carlson sued Roger Ailes,

    saying she was fired after refusing his sexual advances

  44. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    @AlexBurnsNY

    Not just Ailes:
    “Doocy engaged in a pattern and practice of
    severe and pervasive sexual harassment”

  45. D-FENS says:

    Good. Roger Ailes is the enemy.

  46. D-FENS says:

    Stupid #nevertrump’er

  47. GOP's broken (the good one) says:

    @DrDavidLey

    I’m sure we are all just shocked to hear that sexual harassment & misogyny occur at Fox.
    Shocked I tell you.

  48. nwnj3 says:

    I never cared for Gretchen as a host. Her interviews were weak and seemed to be as much about self promoting as the topic. She certainly likes herself, it doesn’t surprise me to hear that she thinks every guy is out for her and didn’t take a firing sitting down.

  49. 3b says:

    I sold not at at the top but pretty close. We were going to buy back in at some point. But fed came in and put a floor on the correction. Been renting a good place relatively cheap. Decided no need to buy back. Meanwhile the place we sold these years later worth the same as we got for it 10 years ago. Flat appreciation 10 years on. Meanwhile taxes increased dramatically to one of the highest in Bergen county. Schools are over crowded again after multiple school additions. Talk of having to recertify people’s residency. And hiring an investigator to certify kids in school live in town. And on it goes. We come and go as we please. No maintenance concerns. No regrets on selling on our part.

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b- Consider yourself lucky with the good rental conditions. If you ever get pushed out, good luck finding value in your next rental. It’s a landlord’s market, and I’m sure you won’t be happy paying the current market rates for rents. The rent vs own question is never static, but right now, the better option is to own.

  51. 3b says:

    My option is fine! Don’t need a lecture from you! Right now in my opinion the better option in nj is to rent for our situation. Used to be tsk tsk from friends. Now it’s you guys were smart. We know more than a few people who made some assumptions and acted on those assumptions financially. And are now shocked to find out ten years on no appreciation.

  52. Juice Box says:

    Clot’s roving packs prediction is coming true

    Five hundred Venezuelan women storm Colombian border in search of food

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/06/five-hundred-venezuelan-women-storm-colombian-border-in-search-o/

  53. Amerigeddon says:

    Chi (32)-

    Idiot prolly thinks Mogadishu will get a post-Brexit bump.

  54. Amerigeddon says:

    Juice (56)-

    Sadly, every prediction I make comes true. I even heard from BC Bob over the weekend & we talked about his ‘beggar thy neighbor’ calls from 2008.

    It’s a race to the bottom, folks. The trend line is in.

  55. Amerigeddon says:

    3b (55)-

    Ignore the troll. He can’t distinguish between positive & negative reinforcement.

  56. Amerigeddon says:

    Gold, bitchez! Now, it’s off to Le Bernardin before it’s overrun by hordes of the starving former proletariat.

  57. Amerigeddon says:

    Should I tip Janet Yellen after my meal tonight, or is that too much like giving a monkey a set of keys?

  58. Essex says:

    Trump’s Son in Law wrote a nice piece about him today.

  59. 1987 Condo says:

    I don’t think Clot has gotten something right since 2007

  60. 3b says:

    #58 True. He certainly was not gone long!

  61. [59] Ain’t that the truth? I bet if we agreed with everything Pumpking said for a week and encouraged him to make more and longer posts he still wouldn’t be able to find sarcasm in the dictionary.

    Ignore the troll. He can’t distinguish between positive & negative reinforcement.

  62. grim – I’m not exactly sure how the uber-wealthy operate, but I suspect we are far enough down the road that your “regular” wealthy retirees are actually forced, due to IRS RMD rules, to derive the bulk of their income from IRA/401(k) type vehicles. As such, there is no distinction between dividends or gains (short or long), it is all income. I’m guessing that outside of the IRA/(401(k) accounts that provide more income than they need, they are probably invested in dividend stocks and/or municipal bonds. Taxing dividends as income would surely goose the municipal bond market.

    BTW, divideds should be taxed as regular income

    Possibly, but I think there would be some significant repercussions for those on fixed incomes that rely on dividend income.

    I suspect that what you would see if dividends were taxed as ordinary income, is that many companies would eliminate their dividends, and instead repurchase equity.

    While some would see this as a net neutral operation – both should technically result in the same benefit to shareholders, I suspect that in reality that person on the fixed income would see less payout as transaction fees would eat into that income, not to mention the additional tax hit.

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