From MarketWatch:
It’s a seller’s real-estate market, but who’s selling?
Even though the U.S. has seen more than three years of a booming seller’s market for housing, there are plenty of Americans who are reluctant to sell their homes for a very simple reason: Where are they going to live?
The supply of U.S. homes for sale, known as inventory, has dropped to some of the lowest levels since before the Great Recession. In June, the National Association of Realtors said that inventory dropped nearly 1% from May to about 2.14 million homes, a supply of about 4.6 months, compared with a typical supply of 6 months in a healthy market. (That means that it would take just 4.6 months at the current sales rate to deplete the entire inventory of homes for sale in the U.S.)
Not only does the low housing inventory mean a bidding war for buyers, but sellers who may want to move to a smaller home and stay in the same market are quite often stuck — because of the rise in prices for smaller homes that are being fought over by both first-time buyers and downsizing empty-nesters.
“A key part of the inventory problem is that in expensive markets it’s difficult for existing homeowners to find another home afterwards if they do sell,” said Ralph McLaughlin, an economist with San Francisco-based Trulia.com, a real-estate research firm. “It’s a double-edged sword.”
Got to admit, scratching my head a little at the comments from the unions against Icahn and the Taj.
Icahn didn’t cause AC’s problems, nor did he cause the Taj problems. Be bought a bankrupt casino that had closed its doors. That’s what Icahn does – he buys distressed assets, and tries to make them profitable.
Clearly, Icahn was an idiot to come to New Jersey.
So, he will cut his losses and shut it down. What obligation does he have to subsidize the employees of a failing business that he had no part to make “fail”? Pretty sure he was able to cut operating costs to the bone, cut management to the bare minimum, and still couldn’t find enough cost reduction to be profitable. He didn’t pick a fight with the employees as part of some kind of power grab, or to milk a profitable company dry. Why exactly would someone invest $200-300 million, with the intent of putting it out of business? It would be easier to just burn the money in a bonfire.
So this failure was the fault of the unions. Nice job. Icahn is out at least $100 million, and there are 3000 more unemployed in AC.
This marks the end of AC, stake in the heart. NO OPERATOR WILL COME TO AC AFTER THIS – They’ve been shown, very visibly, what they can expect if they come to AC. Revel will never reopen.
Shut her down boys, fire up the bulldozers and get it over with.
Also doesn’t help that it’s in a state full of democrats, none of which would be caught dead in a Trump building.
You might read that and laugh a little bit, but I’m not joking.
Union president Bob McDevitt blasted Icahn, calling the cost of restoring full health care “a drop in the bucket” that the billionaire can easily afford.
“This titan of Wall Street is utterly incapable of making a decision unless it is mean-spirited and benefiting him alone,” McDevitt said. “The great deal-maker would rather burn the Trump Taj Mahal down just so he can control the ashes. In the end he’ll have to live with what he’s done to working people in Atlantic City.”
Icahn replied, “What is my obligation? I give hundreds of millions to charity, but this is a business; it’s not a charity. They look at this as my responsibility, and I’m a bad guy if I don’t give them what they want.”
So, Bob McDevitt will still continue to collect a big paycheck, but Icahn, who lost more than $100 million on this deal, is the bad guy?
Interesting comments on the forums over at the ledger.. Check this one out:
Their contract has a clause no favored employer. All casinos pay local 54 employees that work the same jobs the same rate. All benefits are the same. McDevitt sacrificed the Taj employees for the 7 other casinos employees that Local 54 represents. If 54 accepted less from Taj the other 7 casinos could and would demand for the same deal Taj got. Not saying it’s right
So McDevitt potentially threw the Taj workers under the bus to protect the other union member salaries?
Again, who is the bad guy?
frist non-grim;-)
Grim,
I blame Nucky Johnson (Thompson) for the whole mess.
I have to think that hit pieces like this have the opposite effect intended:
http://nypost.com/video/trumps-father-got-advice-from-a-mobster/
There has to be a better way. Don’t really trust a work Icahn says. He is a wall st pirate.
“Al Wallinger, a bellman at the casino since it opened 25 years ago, said he is struggling to pay for health insurance for his wife, who has endured two bouts of cancer.
“Since Carl Icahn took my health insurance away, I have to pay about one third of my salary to make sure that my wife has the best chance if the cancer returns,” he said. “I’m not sure how long we will be able to afford to do that.
“I’m tired of Mr. Icahn’s false choice between health insurance and profitability,” Wallinger said. “You know what is abhorrent? When one of the richest men in the world steals my health care and then calls me a mobster.””
NY, NJ, DE, and CT should leave the US and form our own country, we would be better off:
http://ritholtz.com/2016/08/least-federally-dependent-states/
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/3995599
9- The Bank of England is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate today to a new low in its 322-year history, as part of a package to cushion a likely post-Brexit downturn. Governor Mark Carney will present the central bank’s latest policies and forecasts at a press conference scheduled for 7:30 a.m. ET and may unveil additional stimulus options as Britain’s economy teeters on the brink of recession. The BoE’s benchmark rate has been at 0.5% since early 2009.
Economy
#10..this already happened at 7:30 am
Pumps your comment from yesterday he did not provide a long term prediction so short term we agree? Well I think a reasonably intelligent person would read his short term predictions and perhaps conclude that long term things do not look that good.
The astronomical, hidden cost of sending kids to ‘good’ public schools
It could cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars (gulp) to send your kid to public school — and that’s above and beyond the costs for things like supplies and extracurricular activities.
The reason: Homes in good public school districts — defined as districts with a minimum of one public school in which student test scores were at least one-third higher than the state average — cost 77% more than homes in average or below-average districts, according to data from real-estate research firm ATTOM Data Solutions.
The average home cost $427,402 in a good school district in July 2016, compared with $241,096 for other districts. ATTOM analyzed home prices and test scores in more than 4,400 zip codes in the U.S. for this study. “Towns with stronger public school systems will typically cost more to live in,” it says.
Let’s say you bought that $427,402 good-school-district home today, put down 10% buy it, and got a 30-year fixed rate mortgage on it at 3.2%. That house will cost you at total of nearly $600,000 over the life of the loan. On the other hand, if you bought the $241,096 mediocre-school-district house with a 10% down payment and the same loan terms, you’d end up only shelling out a total of about $340,000.
The reason homes in good school districts are more expensive is a function of supply and demand, explains Daren Blomquist, ATTOM’s senior vice president: “There’s more demand for these homes and that drives up the price for these homes.”
And the higher the value of your home, the more you pay in property taxes, says Blomquist; those in good school districts paid $3,867 versus $2,795 on average for those in less-good districts, the ATTOM analysis revealed. And for some those numbers are far higher: In Westchester, Nassau and Bergen counties — all of which are near New York City and are dotted with excellent public schools — property taxes average more than $8,500 a year, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Still, while rare, there are places where homes in good school districts are reasonably priced. Among the 10 zip codes with good schools that represent the best bargain home buying opportunities include zips in Chicago (60620); Cleveland (44125); Saginaw, Mich. (48602); Milwaukee (53209), Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla. (33712), Orlando (32835), Las Vegas (89106); and Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. (92277).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-hidden-cost-of-sending-kids-to-good-public-schools-2016-08-04
That analysis doesn’t take into account the appreciation that has occurred in these districts. I watched a lot of families move in and move out once their kids have graduated. Most of them sold for a pretty big profit. The demand that these schools systems generate was enough to sustain bubble prices in many cases.
I still maintain, going for a top 20 district can be counterproductive. You are giving your kid more competition. If you really want a better indicator of the quality of the school system, take a look at the teacher’s starting salaries. In working at my new district, there’s probably a $12k difference in starting salaries while these schools are within 20 minutes of each other. That’s more than enough for them to have the luxury of picking the best available talent out there.
#14.. I agree with your appreciation point, at least to date.
My blue ribbons highly desirable town is close to a not blue ribbony not desirable town from a school perspective. This is the perception at least. SAT scores for this year showed verbal about the same for both towns. Math score 50 points higher in my town. Taxes in both are fairly comparable but prices are much less in the other town. Is 50 points higher worth the differential? I don’t know.
re # 16 – ” prices are much less in the other town.”
New Milford is a dump.
re# 16 – prices are much less in the other town.
Yeah but New Milford is is on the other side of the mighty Hackensack and does not have it’s own train station.
re# 16 – prices are much less in the other town.
Yeah but New Mi*lford is is on the other side of the mighty Hackensack and does not have it’s own train station.
Can’t say M*ILF? What is this world coming too…
Bad for Hoboken? That is about 200 jobs that will move to Bentonville…
Wal-Mart said to be in talks to acquire e-commerce site Jet.com?
http://fortune.com/2016/08/03/jet-com-founder-amazon/
17 juice not NM a little further east of there.
Garbagefield?
20 correct!
Juice box just following along for the laughs, is Garbage field -Garfield or Bergenfield? makes more sense for the former.
22 not sure which one juice was referring to but I believe it was BF which is what I was referring to.
My blue ribbons highly desirable town is close to a not blue ribbony not desirable town from a school perspective. This is the perception at least. SAT scores for this year showed verbal about the same for both towns. Math score 50 points higher in my town. Taxes in both are fairly comparable but prices are much less in the other town. Is 50 points higher worth the differential? I don’t know.
Hard to tell. The town I previously taught in, I firmly believe we had the top student body in the state. However, when looking at their SAT scores, they are below the town that I’m teaching at now. Why? My best guess is that my current town runs a math curriculum that is a year behind my previous town. The higher achieving town ends up scoring lower because their students are taking the SAT at the end of sophomore year while the lower achieving town ends up scoring higher because they take it at the end of junior year. When you look at AP scores, it’s the reverse with my previous school blowing away the competition.
This is something that doesn’t show up in NJ monthly or any other collective stats. If you want to truly know how good a school is, see what percentage of the student body gets 5’s on AP exams. Publications value participation rate way too much.
Sanitized headline of the day:
London stabbing: suspect is Norwegian Somali with ‘no evidence’ of terror – live
Norwegian Somali? Is that Norwegian on his mom’s side and Somali on his dad’s side? Nope.
“A 19-year-old Norwegian national of Somali origin”
London stabbing? So just one person stabbed? Nope.
“One woman dead and five injured after attack”
Anyone want to lay odds on the religion of the “no evidence of terror” attacker? I guess we may find out after a few more news cycles. Or maybe never.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2016/aug/04/london-stabbing-russell-square-knife-attack-live
Watch as the definition of terrorism shrinks to some impossibly nuanced definition leading up to the election.
Mondale II:
“We are going to raise taxes on the middle class!” -Hillarity
http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/08/03/watch-hillary-says-were-going-raise-taxes-middle-class
And the crowd cheers right along…
[8]grim – you may be on the right track but your plan would cut off much of NE from the rest of the country. Also, you would be keeping too much dirty bath water with the baby.
Try this on for size:
All US states or parts of states that are both:
1. North of Trenton
2. Within 75 miles of the Atlantic Ocean
(sorry Delaware)
NY, NJ, DE, and CT should leave the US and form our own country, we would be better off:
http://ritholtz.com/2016/08/least-federally-dependent-states/
28 we can call it Midlantica.
And Warren Buffett is clapping too. I guess his secretary isn’t paying enough in taxes.
Mondale II:
“We are going to raise taxes on the middle class!” -Hillarity
http://insider.foxnews.com/2016/08/03/watch-hillary-says-were-going-raise-taxes-middle-class
And the crowd cheers right along…
Shouldn’t your review the quartiles? It might give you a much better indicator of the story across the towns…..may there is a larger pool of scrubs to pull down the average while the elite may be higher as well, but not sufficient enough to offset the effect…..it is hard to draw conclusions based on the “cream of the crop” only…..
Ben says:
August 4, 2016 at 12:35 pm
My blue ribbons highly desirable town is close to a not blue ribbony not desirable town from a school perspective. This is the perception at least. SAT scores for this year showed verbal about the same for both towns. Math score 50 points higher in my town. Taxes in both are fairly comparable but prices are much less in the other town. Is 50 points higher worth the differential? I don’t know.
Hard to tell. The town I previously taught in, I firmly believe we had the top student body in the state. However, when looking at their SAT scores, they are below the town that I’m teaching at now. Why? My best guess is that my current town runs a math curriculum that is a year behind my previous town. The higher achieving town ends up scoring lower because their students are taking the SAT at the end of sophomore year while the lower achieving town ends up scoring higher because they take it at the end of junior year. When you look at AP scores, it’s the reverse with my previous school blowing away the competition.
This is something that doesn’t show up in NJ monthly or any other collective stats. If you want to truly know how good a school is, see what percentage of the student body gets 5′s on AP exams. Publications value participation rate way too much.
“My friend is a senior vice president at one of the world’s most famous investment banks.
I bring this up not to brag that I actually have a friend (although, let’s face it, that is an upset) nor to name-drop what his job is. I mention it only because this information sort of comes into play later. And I am all about foreshadowing. And name-dropping, of course, but trust me, this isn’t the name-dropping moment. That comes later. More foreshadowing! I’m a foreshadowing machine!
The story actually starts with the fact that my friend “Paul” has a son who has graduated from high school and will be starting college soon.
Now, I also have an 18-year-old who will be starting college soon, so we’re talking, Paul and I, about where the kids are going, what they plan on studying (as far as I can tell, for mine, it’s Snapchat, girls and girls on Snapchat), and it’s all exactly what you’d expect, until Paul tells me this story.
This past spring, he and his son are at the college his kid has gotten into. It’s orientation weekend for all the incoming freshmen and their parents. Now, it’s a smaller school, with maybe 1,500 kids entering this year. I’ve never been, but by all accounts it’s a fantastic university and looks amazingly beautiful. Even with the understanding that most college campuses are pretty nice, this place is exquisite.
He gets there and it’s a fairly typical orientation weekend. There’s a tour, there are presentations explaining how to choose your course load, the kid meets his counselor, etc., blah, blah, blah. It’s all what you expect when suddenly, Paul is slipped an envelope.
It’s an engraved invitation.
For a dinner.
With the president of the university.
He assumes everyone got one of these and asks some other parents what time they’re going to the dinner. They aren’t. They weren’t invited.
Oh.
Smooth, Paul
So Paul goes to the dinner, and maybe there’s 40 parents there of the couple of thousand who are on campus. It’s in a fancy-schmancy room, the food is amazing and as dinner is finishing up, the president gets up to speak.
“Let me get right to it. Here’s why you’re here. You’re rich.”
As nervous laughter goes around, the president continues, smiling but serious. He’s not kidding.
“Why do you think you guys are sitting here eating filet mignon and drinking champagne while everyone else is at a cookout? I’ve got an endowment to raise and I want your money. You see how beautiful the campus is? All the new buildings going up? How do you think that happens? Rich parents.”
He continues. “I’ve got buildings to build. Improvements to make. You want your kid to live in a dump? You want your kid to be safe? Because that costs money.” And as all the parents are thinking about this, the president goes for the kill.
“So here’s the deal. If you donate and your kid screws up, we’ll look the other way. If you don’t and your kid screws up, he or she will go into the system like everyone else and you take your chances.”
I stare at Paul. He shrugs. Clearly, when he showed up on campus, they Googled his name or something and quickly figured out what he did. Remember that, kids. No matter what your job or interest is, it can always be improved with some research.
I’m shaking my head at this story as I ask Paul, “So, what are you gonna do?”
“Donate, of course. My kid’s a screw-up.”
Although he didn’t actually say screw-up.
Now …
I have a lot of reactions to this story. I can’t believe the president was that brazen. Am I shocked? Of course not. This is not new behavior or “rules.” It’s been happening since the beginning of time.
But to be that blatant about it? Whatever your status and position in life, it certainly speaks volumes about how this country works, for better or worse. Add this to the long list of stuff rich people get that everyone else doesn’t.
But my biggest reaction was that I was a big fan of the approach. Is it unfair? Of course. But it’s honest. You may not like the rules, but at least you know what they are. And when you know what the rules are, you can make choices, you can prepare, you can set yourself up as best as possible to navigate them and succeed.”
http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/17157660/strategy-secrets-tips-how-draft-fantasy-football
I’m learning more about the school ground game…..the administrators are evaluated on the “meet or exceed” benchmark…….in their mind – to hell with exceed….
As a result, the worst students get the best teachers, with the thought being…..put your best resources in the position where they have the highest probability to meet an arbitrary benchmark……of course it also means that there is a purposeful undermining of the best and brightest with fog-the-mirror cadaver instructors……thanks and have a nice day…..
33- Great example of how our country works from an unlikely source. This is why you go to Ivy League schools….to get connected to these people and improve your odds of moving up the ladder dramatically. It’s not just about an education, it’s also about trying to get in the network of “real players.” Money talks, bs walks.
Sometimes I wonder how the average person defines terrorism. Choice of weapon? Religious influence? Number hurt or killed? By the background of the perpetrators? How do we distinguish between [mass] murder and terrorism?
nwnj3 says:
August 4, 2016 at 12:44 pm
Watch as the definition of terrorism shrinks to some impossibly nuanced definition leading up to the election.
He said nothing about long term outlook. A reasonably “biased” intelligent person that looks at the glass half full might take it like that, but someone educated on the cycles of the market and impacts of demographics on the market might not agree, esp if this individual isn’t consumed with pessimism, but an open mind.
3b says:
August 4, 2016 at 9:15 am
Pumps your comment from yesterday he did not provide a long term prediction so short term we agree? Well I think a reasonably intelligent person would read his short term predictions and perhaps conclude that long term things do not look that good.
*half empty
Pumkin, you need to get more wealthy friends. How do you think Barbara & HW Bush got W and now seeing Jeb’s performance – Jeb too thru Yale/Harvard Business. Don’t worry the Clinton’s and Chelsea are not that far behind.
Only thing is, is usually done by the kid’s father, in a private meeting with the president where he talks about how the grounds look “weird” or not fast enough wi-fi and by the way here is a 6 figure check to help with the cost.
Here is Rodney D doing it in style https://youtu.be/V_4ocoJDVD8
I’m learning more about the school ground game…..the administrators are evaluated on the “meet or exceed” benchmark…….in their mind – to hell with exceed….
As a result, the worst students get the best teachers, with the thought being…..put your best resources in the position where they have the highest probability to meet an arbitrary benchmark……of course it also means that there is a purposeful undermining of the best and brightest with fog-the-mirror cadaver instructors……thanks and have a nice day…..
This can be true, until you get to the junior/senior level APs in science and math. A lot of time, lazy teachers want nothing to do with that amount of rigor. Some just aren’t confident enough. Some don’t have the background. Although, I have seen plenty of teachers take it and then tell the students, “this is AP, teach yourself”. So…it’s hard to paint with a broad brush.
[39] That’s what my fifth grade teacher did to me. While he taught the class from the 5th grade math book, I sat in the back of the class by myself with a 6th grade math book. The next year they skipped me to 7th grade.
Although, I have seen plenty of teachers take it and then tell the students, “this is AP, teach yourself”. So…it’s hard to paint with a broad brush.
http://www.nj.com/passaic-county/index.ssf/2016/08/dangerous_booby-traps_found_along_popular_north_jersey_trail.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
39- Rodney D was the man.
42- So that’s where clot has been, trying to take me out? Or did he put a price on my head?
36 pumps open mind!! You don’t have a mind judging by all of your incessant ramblings!
#27 and 30,
“We are going to raise taxes on the middle class!”
The fact that the RNC and TrumpCamp would advance that spin with a straight face is an indictment of our political system.
The fact that some group out there is nodding along and eating it up is an indictment of our educational system.
I don’t know which is worse.
Pete [45];
The fact that the RNC and TrumpCamp would advance that spin with a straight face is an indictment of our political system.
What’s Trump/RNC got to do with it? Follow the link: its Hillary’s speech; in her own words.
Shouldn’t your review the quartiles? It might give you a much better indicator of the story across the towns…..may there is a larger pool of scrubs to pull down the average while the elite may be higher as well, but not sufficient enough to offset the effect…..it is hard to draw conclusions based on the “cream of the crop” only…..
No, starting salary is the best indicator. Some schools offer about $44k. Another school offers $57k. That second school gets to choose who they want to hire and the other schools just pray. Does it always work out? No. But the odds are in their favor. But that being said, look at new hires that have experience. If they are getting cash too and you hear good things about the new hires from parents/students, you know that your district is willing to pay for talent.
Ben,
I think you’ve mentioned it before, but how does a district go around its negotiated pay scales to entice an experienced hire (such as your story)?
You really make it seem so easy with your presentation however I find this topic to be actually one thing that I think I might never understand. It kind of feels too complex and very wide for me. I am taking a look forward for your next put up, I will try to get the grasp of it!