Don’t count the middle class out yet

From the NYT:

Middle-Income Jobs Finally Show Signs of a Rebound

The American economy is finally creating more middle-income jobs, according to a new analysis released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a turnabout from the feast-and-famine pattern earlier in the recovery, when hiring was strongest at the bottom and top of the wage scale.

The findings suggest that it may soon be time to retire a familiar criticism of the long but lackluster economic rebound that has been underway since the end of the Great Recession in 2009: the hollowing out of the American middle class.

Between 2013 and 2015, employers added nearly 2.3 million workers earning from $30,000 to $60,000 a year, primarily in fields like education, construction, transportation and social services. That was roughly 50 percent more than in either the high-wage or low-wage categories during the same period.

By contrast, the Fed researchers found, of the nearly 7.6 million jobs created from 2010 to 2013, only about a fifth fell into the middle-tier category, with the largest number instead coming from lower-paid sectors like food preparation and health care support.

“The tide has begun to turn,” said William C. Dudley, president of the New York Fed. “For the first time in quite a while, we are seeing gains in middle-wage jobs actually outnumber gains in higher- and lower-wage jobs nationwide.”

The nascent national improvement identified by the Fed researchers in New York also held true in the metropolitan region in recent years, with New York City and surrounding suburbs adding 179,000 middle-wage jobs from 2013 to 2015, compared with just 18,000 from 2010 to 2013.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC. Bookmark the permalink.

41 Responses to Don’t count the middle class out yet

  1. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “US manufacturing is at or near a record high level. We make more stuff than we ever have made before, and twice as much stuff as we made in 1984.

    The output of durable goods was at an all-time high in 2015, more than triple what it was in 1980 and double what it was 20 years earlier. The production of electronics, aerospace goods, motor vehicles and machinery are at or close to all-time highs.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-dead-output-has-doubled-in-three-decades-2016-03-28

    In what world is record high output the sign of a “crippled manufacturing sector?” Oh, I know: the Foxiverse”

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Any questions gentlemen? From the lead article.

    Still think this area is dead? Still think the 2020’s won’t boom? Doesn’t this article provide the evidence for wage inflation being right around the corner like I predicted way back in 2013. The great pumpkin is almost hear!!

    “Suburban counties like Rockland, Westchester and Nassau are also prospering again, and closer-in counties in New Jersey, like Bergen, Essex, Middlesex and Monmouth, are finally showing signs of life”

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “With home prices and sales on the rise, millions of American are now fixing up their houses again. And actually, as big and overheated as the housing boom was at its peak, homeowners are now spending even more on renovations than they were back then. Though, experts say, these days, instead of frenzied condo flipping, the renovation boom is more sustainable”

    http://www.npr.org/2016/08/11/489472679/theres-a-home-renovation-boom-but-good-luck-finding-a-contractor

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    4- The labor shortage isn’t too surprising given how bad the housing bust was, says “Abbe Will, an analyst with the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies who tracks home renovation activity. She says the construction industry lost 2 million workers after the crash.

    “Those 2 million exited the industry. It’s not that they’re on the sidelines unemployed looking to get back in,” she says. “They either went to another industry altogether, retired [or] potentially went home to their native country. So we lost a ton of construction workers.””

  5. grim says:

    Lochte changes his hair color and style for this big interview?

    Douchebag.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The common perception is that manufacturing jobs have disappeared because they’ve been sent to low-wage countries in Asia and Latin America. The truth is that a lot of work has been lost to automation.

    U.S. manufacturers have become a lot more productive and simply don’t need as many workers as they once did, Bown says.

    “It’s a lot more robots and computer equipment and many, many fewer people,” Bown says. “So what you see is, there still is, even today, a lot of manufacturing activity in the United States. It’s just done with many, many fewer workers.””

    http://www.npr.org/2016/08/18/490192497/bringing-back-manufacturing-jobs-would-be-harder-than-it-sounds

  7. Alex says:

    1-Pumps

    From the marketwatch article you site:

    “American manufacturing isn’t dead by any means. But the loss of good-paying manufacturing jobs has devastated the working class, and made reaching the American dream more difficult.”

  8. Alex says:

    8

    Cite rather than site.

  9. Speaking of douchebags, Pumpfalse doesn’t even know how to divine partisan propaganda from actual news. Yesterday he posted an article that claims we are manufacturing more than ever before. It was written by the same guy wrote these articles in the last 3 months:


    Why Donald Trump can’t magically bring back 5 million factory jobs
    At Trump’s economic speech, it’s the ideas that are crazy, not the candidate
    Sorry, Trump supporters, but the U.S. economy needs more immigrants
    Why presidents shouldn’t get credit or blame for the economy
    Blame the Trump voter for the drop in the labor force
    As president, Clinton would be like Obama: Liberal, pragmatic

  10. [2] When I was a kid we used to stay at the same one every year. Oceanfront, two blocks North of the boardwalk. It still operates as a motel but each of the rooms are individually owned condos now:

    http://trylonmotel.com

  11. Grim says:

    Crystal Beach in Wildwood Crest was our usual.

  12. Ben says:

    “The common perception is that manufacturing jobs have disappeared because they’ve been sent to low-wage countries in Asia and Latin America. The truth is that a lot of work has been lost to automation.

    U.S. manufacturers have become a lot more productive and simply don’t need as many workers as they once did, Bown says.

    “It’s a lot more robots and computer equipment and many, many fewer people,” Bown says. “So what you see is, there still is, even today, a lot of manufacturing activity in the United States. It’s just done with many, many fewer workers.””

    I didn’t realize that automation and outsourcing to Mexico could not simultaneously exist.

  13. Grim says:

    12 – the craziest thing was going back there some 10 years later, after an event down in cape may – no reservation- and being immediately recognized by the owner.

  14. Were you one of the “bad” kids playing street hockey on the shuffleboard courts?

    12 – the craziest thing was going back there some 10 years later, after an event down in cape may – no reservation- and being immediately recognized by the owner.

  15. grim – Did your family go out early and ride bikes on the boardwalk?

  16. chicagofinance says:

    Must suppress…..does not fit script…..

    Notable & Quotable: How Mar!juana Begat Her0in

    ‘Looking at the American drug market as it existed, Guzmán and his partners saw an opportunity.’

    Okay, I’m going to say it: The her0in epidemic was caused by the legalization of mar!juana.

    We wanted legal weed, and for the most part, we got it. Four states have legalized it outright, others have decriminalized it, and in many jurisdictions police refuse to enforce the laws that are on the books, creating a de facto street legalization.

    Good news, right?

    Not for the Sinaloa Cartel, which by the time Colorado passed Amendment 64 in 2012 had become the dominant cartel in Mexico. Weed was a major profit center for them, but suddenly they couldn’t compete against a superior American product that also had drastically lower transportation and security costs.

    In a single year, the cartel suffered a 40 percent drop in mar!juana sales, representing billions of dollars. Mexican mar!juana became an almost worthless product. . . . Once-vast fields in Durango now lie fallow.

    More good news, right?

    Yeah, no. Guzmán and his boys are businessmen. They’re not going to take a forty-point hit and not do something about it. They had to make up those profits somewhere.

    Looking at the American drug market as it existed, Guzmán and his partners saw an opportunity. An increasing number of Americans were addicted to prescr!ption 0pioids such as 0xycontin.

    And their addiction was expensive. One capsule of 0xy might sell on the street for thirty dollars, and an addict might need ten hits a day.

    Well, s—, they thought. We have some of the best p0ppy fields in the world. Opium, morphine, 0xy, her0in—they’re basically the same drug, so . . .

    The Sinaloa Cartel decided to undercut the pharmaceutical companies. They increased the production of Mexican her0in by almost 70 percent, and also raised the purity level, bringing in Colombian cooks to create “cinnam0n” her0in as strong as the East Asian product. They had been selling a product that was about 46 percent pure, now they improved it to 90 percent.

    Their third move was classic market economics—they dropped the price. A kilo of her0in went for as much as $200,000 in New York City a few years ago, cost $80,000 in 2013, and now has dropped to around $50,000. More of a better product for less money: You can’t beat it.

    At the same time, American drug and law-enforcement officials, concerned about the dramatic surge in overdose deaths from pharmaceutical opioids (165,000 from 1999 to 2014), cracked down on both legal and illegal distribution, opening the door for Mexican her0in, which sold for five to ten bucks a dose.

    But pill users were not accustomed to the potency of this new her0in. Even her0in addicts were taken by surprise.

    As a result, overdose deaths have skyrocketed, more than doubling from 2000 to 2014. More people—47,055—died from drug overdoses in 2014 than in any other year in American history. . . . That’s 125 people a day, more than five lives every hour, a fatality level that matched the AIDS epidemic’s peak in 1995.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think the point is that people don’t realize how many jobs are being replaced by automation. They naively blame Chinese, like the low skill Chinese workers aren’t battling automation themselves. Those American jobs that were replaced by Chinese have now been replaced by automation in China.

    “I didn’t realize that automation and outsourcing to Mexico could not simultaneously exist.”

  18. Ben says:

    I think the point is that people don’t realize how many jobs are being replaced by automation. They naively blame Chinese, like the low skill Chinese workers aren’t battling automation themselves. Those American jobs that were replaced by Chinese have now been replaced by automation in China.

    “I didn’t realize that automation and outsourcing to Mexico could not simultaneously exist.”

    The main point of the article, whether the author knows it or not, is that people are incapable of thinking in terms of more than one cause and one effect. Mexico and China take jobs from the US through exploitation of cheap labor…that’s a fact, and anyone who denies it is an idiot.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What are wrong with those headlines? I see nothing wrong. I agree with everyone of those headlines, maybe that’s why I realize how wrong it is to vote for Trump. Remember, at one point I was a Trump supporter, then I came to my senses and realized the damage this guy can do to our economy and country.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    August 21, 2016 at 9:44 am
    Speaking of douchebags, Pumpfalse doesn’t even know how to divine partisan propaganda from actual news. Yesterday he posted an article that claims we are manufacturing more than ever before. It was written by the same guy wrote these articles in the last 3 months:

    Why Donald Trump can’t magically bring back 5 million factory jobs
    At Trump’s economic speech, it’s the ideas that are crazy, not the candidate
    Sorry, Trump supporters, but the U.S. economy needs more immigrants
    Why presidents shouldn’t get credit or blame for the economy
    Blame the Trump voter for the drop in the labor force
    As president, Clinton would be like Obama: Liberal, pragmatic

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one is denying that jobs were sent to Mexico and China. The point of the article is that it’s impossible to bring back all those manufacturing jobs (like trump says he will do) because a lot of them were replaced by automation. They are never ever coming back. Get a new skill, cause those jobs aren’t coming back.

    “The main point of the article, whether the author knows it or not, is that people are incapable of thinking in terms of more than one cause and one effect. Mexico and China take jobs from the US through exploitation of cheap labor…that’s a fact, and anyone who denies it is an idiot.”

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And those jobs are being replaced by newly created jobs in tech and service. The future of manufacturing is automation. Not many humans will make physical things in the future, it will all be done through automation. So why hang onto those jobs in that industry?

    Alex says:
    August 21, 2016 at 9:29 am
    1-Pumps

    From the marketwatch article you site:

    “American manufacturing isn’t dead by any means. But the loss of good-paying manufacturing jobs has devastated the working class, and made reaching the American dream more difficult.”

  22. Alex says:

    So pumps, according to the marketwatch article, US manufacturing jobs have declined by 5 million in the past 15 years which is almost a third. How is that a good thing and how will that lead to wage inflation when 5 million jobs were eliminated?

  23. Pumpfalse: Which of these two words are two words are you having trouble pronouncing or understanding: partisan propaganda

    Rex Nutting would gladly tongue Hillary’s crack from stem to stern and then write an article telling you that it should be the next Ben & Jerry’s flavor, sweeter than any other sugary treat…and then you would paste it here, of course.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/rex-nutting

  24. Joyce says:

    17
    Legalize it all

  25. [17] I always heard it as “beer leads to heroin”

  26. Grim says:

    I blame the doctors before anything else.

    Opioids prescribed like candy, all you need is a hangnail or papercut, and you walk out with 30 pills and 3 refills.

    How about the dozens of poor retirees in Paterson who were selling their prescriptions to drug dealers, on a regular basis, to supplement their income? They didn’t even go to jail, not even a slap on the wrist. The equivalent of a fuckin cartel supply operation, organized, and no jail time. How many junkies out there today because of granny? Hundreds.

  27. 3b says:

    22 plumps and last week you told grim that his tech job was being outsourced / replaced.

  28. 3b says:

    Pumps the article on Fairfield co in your estimation is b.s. because it does not suit your worldview. The article in the ny times is right because it supports your world view. The beauty of this blog was in the fact that articles were posted and then dissected analyzed source who wrote it taken into consideration agenda etc. With you none of that matters. The only thing that matters is the value of your real estate.

  29. grim says:

    Newark declares 24 hours of peace … 3 people murdered.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t know what grim does. Last week, and I still stand by this, I stated that the field of coding would get flooded due to the massive push for kids to learn coding. In 10-15 years, that entire generation will know how to code. Obviously, not the entire generation, but enough to destroy the value of non-creative coding. I’m sure highly complex creative coding will still earn top dollar, but the non-thinking coding will be destroyed by a flood of people with the skills needed to do the job. I did not say outsource/replace, I stated flooded applicants in that market, aka, downward pressure on wages in that field.

    3b says:
    August 21, 2016 at 5:16 pm
    22 plumps and last week you told grim that

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I attacked the article and stated why it’s bull shit. Instead of attacking me, attack why my evidence is wrong and I’ll be glad to readjust my tune on the issue. Till then, that author did a fabulous jobs of putting out bs.

    3b says:
    August 21, 2016 at 5:20 pm
    Pumps the article on Fairfield co in your estimation is b.s. because it does not suit your worldview. The article in the ny times is right because it supports your world view. The beauty of this blog was in the fact that articles were posted and then dissected analyzed source who wrote it taken into consideration agenda etc. With you none of that matters. The only thing that matters is the value of your real estate.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And how are you any different from this guy with your love for anything not blue. You are licking an idiot’s a$$hole just because he is going against Clinton and the blue team. I’m not for team red or blue. I am going against trump on the simple reason that I think Clinton will do a better job than trump. The team has nothing to do with it either.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    August 21, 2016 at 3:37 pm
    Pumpfalse: Which of these two words are two words are you having trouble pronouncing or understanding: partisan propaganda

    Rex Nutting would gladly tongue Hillary’s crack from stem to stern and then write an article telling you that it should be the next Ben & Jerry’s flavor, sweeter than any other sugary treat…and then you would paste it here, of course.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/rex-nutting

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You mean thugs are actually going to have to work for their money? Lol knowing these fools, they will take their anger to the streets if we legalize it.

    Joyce says:
    August 21, 2016 at 3:54 pm
    17
    Legalize it all

  34. 3b says:

    32 no you did not.

  35. 3b says:

    31 you are all over the place again. Not surprisingly though.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 17, 2016 at 3:44 pm
    50- Btw, big push is coding these days. How long before these jobs are flooded with applicants?

    3b says:
    August 21, 2016 at 8:33 pm
    31 you are all over the place again. Not

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Go back and read my posts.

    3b says:
    August 21, 2016 at 8:31 pm
    32 no you did not

  38. 3b says:

    37/38 I truly am done with you.

  39. I’m thinking maybe douchebag is too kind a name for Pumpfalse. He’s more of a douchenozzle, the business end of a douchebag. After all, he’s completely in the dark and everything about him stinks.

  40. Hahahaha. We’ll leave that unenviable task to your doctors.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 21, 2016 at 9:08 pm
    Go back and read my posts.

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