Good thing millennials don’t want houses, because they can’t afford them.

From Forbes:

Millennials Pessimism Could Spell Trouble For The U.S. Housing Market

Home prices in many places have been steadily rising, buoyed by a growing economy, low interest rates and a chronic lack of inventory in some markets.

While that spells good news for homeowners – and home sellers – it is creating worry for many first-time buyers who are watching prices steadily get out of reach. That is particularly true for millennials, a sector critical to the future of the housing market.

A study out this week from national realtor Redfin shows worry about affordability is growing more predominant among home buyers, but the fear is more acute among young people.

Just over 28% of buyers said they were most worried that “prices are rising or are too high,” the largest percentage to cite this concern in more than a year, according to the Redfin survey, which was conducted in August and includes more than 1,800 home buyers. Among millennials — buyers 35 and younger — 32.5% said affordability is a big concern.

Millennials are struggling to save enough money for a home since prices are rising faster than their pay, says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Pacific Union, the largest real estate firm in the San Francisco Bay Area. Today, the typical first-time home buyer purchases a home that costs 2.6 times his or her annual income, Hepp says.

The gap between affordability and other concerns is also widening, the study finds. The second-most cited top concern was “too much competition from other buyers,” at only 13%. In previous surveys, the second- and third-most cited concerns made up a far higher percentage of total responses. Last year it was 31.4 percent, while in May it was 33.5 percent.

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74 Responses to Good thing millennials don’t want houses, because they can’t afford them.

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, I base all my predictions on demographics, cycles, and human psychology. If you would listen to me more, you would understand why Japan is not like the United States. They are a demographic basket case. The United States is set demographically thanks to the Millennial generation. They have become the biggest segment of our population, unlike Japan, who have a massive elderly population as the biggest segment of their population. Nothing can help Japan till they ride out the demographics. China is heading down the same road as Japan, they will be a demographic basket case in a decade or two. Prob worse than Japan thanks to that one child policy. These two countries wish they had a generation like the Millennials moving through their population.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    August 28, 2016 at 1:03 am
    [103] Uhhh…There is this country called Japan.

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    2-

    “Japanese leaders and Japanese people generally are well aware of their nation’s demographic challenges. The population has begun to decline and the proportion of people of working age continues to decrease. The birthrate is well below replacement level. Japanese people are aging fast while life expectancy continues to increase. The implications for the Japanese economy and for Japan’s position in the world should be obvious.

    Yet Japanese political and business leaders prefer not to discuss the long-term issues. Is this because these are too difficult? Or is it because they don’t think that there is much they can do to alter the likely course of events? Or is it that they are too preoccupied with the day-to-day problems that face them? Or do they say to themselves that these issues can be safely left to their successors? “

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are beyond screwed. Negative interest rates can’t overcome this kind of demographic basket case. Where the fu!k is the demand going to come from in this population? Who is going to support all these elderly people that don’t produce anything?

    “Japan’s population shrank by its largest amount on record in 2014. Roughly 1.001 million people were born and 1.269 million people died last year, leaving the country with 268,000 fewer people overall.

    Japan’s declining population has a powerful impact on its economic situation, and not for the better. An aging population leaves the country with fewer workers and more dependents. And conventional wisdom says aging leads to slower economic growth and more deflationary forces, both of which make it more difficult for Japan to chip away at the substantial debt burden from its economic crisis at the beginning of the 1990s.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/01/07/japans-birth-rate-problem-is-way-worse-than-anyone-imagined/

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is so bunk. Did they ever ask these buyers what kind of houses they were looking at? Of course they are probably looking at 4 bedroom homes and complaining that they are too expensive. Go buy the cape cod in the starter town/neighborhood, and bam, problem solved. Don’t go try to buy in the higher end towns as a first time buyer.

    “A study out this week from national realtor Redfin shows worry about affordability is growing more predominant among home buyers, but the fear is more acute among young people.

    Just over 28% of buyers said they were most worried that “prices are rising or are too high,” the largest percentage to cite this concern in more than a year, according to the Redfin survey, which was conducted in August and includes more than 1,800 home buyers. Among millennials — buyers 35 and younger — 32.5% said affordability is a big concern.”

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Sweetie, what makes you think San Fran area is affordable for first time buyers? Are you naive, or just ignorant to your market? And what is wrong with buying a home for 2.6 times your income? Get a new job.

    “Millennials are struggling to save enough money for a home since prices are rising faster than their pay, says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Pacific Union, the largest real estate firm in the San Francisco Bay Area. Today, the typical first-time home buyer purchases a home that costs 2.6 times his or her annual income, Hepp says”

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, and with the gains these markets had in the past 5 years, they expect it to just continue to infinity and beyond? The author should be using this information to tell you that this means other “cheaper” markets will now be moving on up since people will avoid these robust markets that are way overpriced. It’s all part of the cycle and part of the building blocks towards the next boom cycle in real estate and the economy.

    “The survey by National Association of Realtors underscores how some of the country’s most robust markets are showing dramatic signs of slowing, with buyers turning away from rising prices.

    Sales of single-family homes and condominiums in California were down 13% in July compared with a year earlier. Sales of single-family homes and condos in Denver declined 18% compared with the same time last year. In San Francisco, home sales dropped 10% in the first half of 2016 from a year earlier. The tumble marks the slowest first half since 2008.”

  8. Buyers are getting smarter, it seems.

    Today, the typical first-time home buyer purchases a home that costs 2.6 times his or her annual income,

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    I’m just baiting 29year and footrest but this brings to mind the old adage “a fool and his money . . . ”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/26/banking-black-becomes-the-latest-form-of-social-protest.html

    Not that you see it in MSM unless there’s a failure or high profile corruption case, but institutions in this segment have a spotty history. Part of that is just bad luck from trying to do business with less creditworthy sectors. But this segment has Far more than its fair share of fraud, nepotism, and ties to corrupt legislators. And I’ve seen too many black folks grifted out of their savings by “their brothers”, often with that cash going to Caribbean “banks” that aren’t. It’s a sad thing when the guy sitting across from you doesn’t want to hear that it’s very likely he lost 100k’s because he can’t accept that a fellow black man would do this to him.

    Still, bank where you like. I don’t care until the taxpayer has to bail out your stupid azz.

  10. I base all my predictions on demographics, cycles, and human psychology intuition.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This article from 2008 understood the problem with demographics and how it would impact the economy, esp the housing market. Too bad most of the experts concentrate on bs, instead of what really matters….demographics.

    This article should make it clear to you that demographics were responsible for the huge housing bubble and bust. Sure, low rates and lower lending standards played a small role, but this was demographically driven. Evidence to support this, they have lowered rates and lowered lending standards, yet is there a huge massive bubble? No, because the largest segment of our population, the boomers, stopped buying. Now you have to wait for Millennials to step up to the plate, which they will, in the 2020s.

    “IN THE first years of the 21st century, no area of the American economy has excited more emotion than the property market. First came the excitement of soaring prices. Then spirits came crashing down with the subprime crisis, and now homeowners are agonising over how far values could fall. An even bigger story, however, may be yet to come.

    America should be bracing itself for the end of the “generational housing bubble”, according to a new study by Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu of the University of Southern California. As the country’s 78m baby-boomers retire, the report argues, the housing market will change dramatically.

    For three decades baby-boomers have helped push prices up: they settled down, then bought bigger houses and second homes. But as the first of them celebrate their 65th birthdays in 2011, this may change. The old sell more homes than they buy, according to data covering 1995-2000 (see chart). The ratio of old to working-age people is expected to grow by 67% over the next two decades. Will the younger generation be able to buy all the homes on the market?

    Young adults make up the bulk of new demand, with most purchasing homes when they reach their early 30s. The flood of elderly people selling their homes, Mr Myers suggests, may lead to a drawn-out buyers’ market. Prices may fall further as younger people, perceiving a downturn, delay purchasing.

    This phenomenon will unfold differently across the country. Some states will begin the sell-off later than others. In 15 southern and western states—including the retirement magnets of Florida and Arizona—the elderly do not become net sellers until their 70s. Expensive states such as California and the cold states of the midwest and north-east are likely to lose them more quickly. The mismatch between buyers and sellers may be most acute in the rustbelt, where numbers of young people and immigrants are rising slowly, if at all, says William Frey of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank.

    Of course, there may be other outcomes. Suburbs, which swelled with the baby-boomers, may begin to decline. If the building industry contracts, home prices may remain more stable. Or developers may switch to serving the old, building more compact housing near amenities. Towns may make new efforts to attract immigrants, who already accounted for 40% of the growth in homeownership between 2000 and 2006. Among these unknowns, one thing is more certain: the housing market is about to enter a long period of transition. The youngest baby-boomers will not turn 65 until 2029.”

    http://www.economist.com/node/10534992

  12. [9] Nom – You know the old saying, right? Once you bank black, you never go back.

  13. Keep typing, Pumps. Nobody’s reading. Sunday is the day of rest.

  14. [13] And the day of traffic on Pumpkin Church Expressway.

  15. How intuition-based investors analyze data:

    “This is so bunk.”

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    15- Ripping into me, yet I have to explain to you why Japan is not like us.

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    [12] expat

    Yeah, heard it. And Mel Brooks immortalized it for all time. Of course, you have to go to dealers to get the funny, unsanitized version.

  18. 3b says:

    16 pumps the article was posted . You call it bunk. If it supported your beliefs you would say see I told you so.! And you would point out how it is in Forbes a prestigious publication.

  19. At Busy Road Realty we use our proprietary intuition-based algorithm to find you just the right home, complete with high speed road access and high taxes. Some people balk at high taxes, but those people are idiots. High taxes, in the words of our founder, are the only way to guarantee “the right class of people in your neighborhood.” Call Busy Road Realty today and we will help you get as much free money as you can get and then spend it all at one time on one thing, a home pretty close to some classy people.

  20. 3b – Exactly. Pumps is the kind of dude that goes out and buys something on a whim and then does selective research to support why he was so smart to buy it. Absolutely a cart-before-the-horse type guy. He might even be cart-and-horse-standing-next-to-each-other-facing-opposite-directions type of guy, or more commonly, he has a screw loose.

    16 pumps the article was posted . You call it bunk. If it supported your beliefs you would say see I told you so.! And you would point out how it is in Forbes a prestigious publication.

  21. Juice Box says:

    re# 20 – ROFL, Pumps such an expert on Demographics. The trend is NOT your Friend Pumps for your little corner of New Jersey.

    Isn’t Wayne a prime trade up town for rich islamicists in NJ? Don’t they move from Paterson, and Prospect Park up Hamburg Turnpike so they can send their kids to school at Al-Ghazaly High School?

  22. Juice Box says:

    Lets say Hillary wins and gets the increase of one million muslim immigrants in her first term. How many of them are going to be living in Pumps neighborhood?

    Burka, Burka, Burka store at the Wayne Hills Mall?

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How was anything I called out in this article wrong? I don’t care what publication it is, if they are this prestigious, they shouldn’t be putting out this garbage.

    3b says:
    August 28, 2016 at 10:16 am
    16 pumps the article was posted . You call it bunk. If it supported your beliefs you would say see I told you so.! And you would point out how it is in Forbes a prestigious publication.

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Keep pumping the false assumptions. I was looking for a house for 3 years, might have been longer, had I not had my wife’s sister’s best friend’s mother get into a relationship issue. They bought in 2005, and dumped 200,000 into it, totally renovating inside and out, and as soon as they finished, relationship was over. That’s why the sale was a private sale and not made through a realtor.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    August 28, 2016 at 10:28 am
    3b – Exactly. Pumps is the kind of dude that goes out and buys something on a whim and then does selective research to support why he was so smart to buy it. Absolutely a cart-before-the-horse type guy. He might even be cart-and-horse-standing-next-to-each-other-facing-opposite-directions type of guy, or more commonly, he has a screw loose.

    16 pumps the article was posted . You call it bunk. If it supported your beliefs you would say see I told you so.! And you would point out how it is in Forbes a prestigious publication.

  25. 3b says:

    25 pumps you said that article was bunk. It’s there in black and white. From there you went on to babble about demographics in Japan and China.

  26. The students at Al-Ghazaly study standard subjects, such as Math, English, Science, History, and Jihad.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, they mostly all drive range rovers. I see them all the time. If they have the money to live here, who am I to judge? They don’t bother me. The ones I have spoken with are all well mannered and soft spoken. If they happen to overtake the area, at least I have a population to sell to.

    The Arabs have saved parts of Paterson and Clifton. If their population was not moving in, these areas would be worse off.

    Juice Box says:
    August 28, 2016 at 10:48 am
    re# 20 – ROFL, Pumps such an expert on Demographics. The trend is NOT your Friend Pumps for your little corner of New Jersey.

    Isn’t Wayne a prime trade up town for rich islamicists in NJ? Don’t they move from Paterson, and Prospect Park up Hamburg Turnpike so they can send their kids to school at Al-Ghazaly High School

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m sorry you lack the critical thinking skills needed to understand what I am saying. Maybe someone else can help you, I sure can’t .

    3b says:
    August 28, 2016 at 11:20 am
    25 pumps you said that article was bunk. It’s there in black and white. From there you went on to babble about demographics in Japan and China.

  29. Captain Nom Deplume, Besotted Rummy says:

    Actually, the places I usually see burkas and hijabs are outside of Wal-Marts. I expect if they are outside, they are shopping there. Don’t see many at KoP although that has become a bit of a war zone with the North Philly-Norristown shoppers coming in for some weekend shoplifting.

  30. Captain Nom Deplume, Besotted Rummy says:

    [31] redux

    A related story on another site talked about how the big box home improvement stores have overtaken Sears on white goods market share and now Best Buy and some others are targeting the rest.

    I’ll miss Sears but the market won’t. I’ll miss K-Mart because those stores kept that element away from places I would shop.

  31. This is exactly what has been happening in Japan for a long time now.

    Forbes article:
    Millennials who end up living with their parents has been on the rise steadily since the Great Recession, peaking at about 36%, according to the Pew Research Center.
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34, Pew reported.

  32. Juice Box says:

    re #31 – Sears yeah I was in the Middletown store recently. I cleaned and organized my garage and consolidated my tools, so I went to Sears and bought a new Craftsman 26 In. Heavy-Duty Tool Chest classic red/black combo. Somehow I got an unpublished sale an additional significant discount off the current already low sale price. The sales associate could barely make make heads of tails of the purchase and coupons etc. Very convoluted check out took more than 10 minutes, more than one person there waiting in line and getting impatient.

  33. In Japan they are called parasite singles. In the US we have a different name: recent college grads.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasite_single

  34. This situation allows the children to live in considerable comfort, and while many save money, others spend all their income on luxury items, traveling, and other non-essential expenses.

  35. Juice Box says:

    re #33 – Freeters in Japan number about 10 million men, low household formation due to lack of good paying jobs. Sound familiar?

    The trend is not your friend……

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbivore_men

  36. [37] JB – Thanks, I couldn’t remember the term I learned several years ago. grass-eaters.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Loser. And did you pay attention to the part where he states that if he had a gf, things would be different. These losers use to be able to get jobs at factories, but have been replaced by automation. I was never going to work in a factory in the 21st century, because I’m not a loser. Tell this guy to get off his a$$ and do something with his life instead of paying by the hour to sleep in a net-cafe. Japan is beyond screwed. And they are nothing like USA.

    Juice Box says:
    August 28, 2016 at 12:10 pm
    Here is some decent reporting on Tokyo’s Freeters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/cities/video/2016/jun/13/people-who-live-sleep-tokyo-internet-cafes-japan-video

  38. Juice Box says:

    Yeah there are a few categories of Grass Eaters. Freeters, NEETs, Hikkikomori etc. Karoshi suicide, anxiety disorders are a big big problem, and it is all do to not being able to find and keep a good paying job, now translating into to low low household formation and births.

    There is no reason for it other than to continue to sweep the excess of their bubble now over 25 years ago under the rug.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Please don’t compare these losers to the U.S., nothing similar. God bless Japan.

    “Japanese women might be further discouraging men from entering into romantic relationships. Many women refuse men who do not have steady jobs (such as freeters and NEETs).[15] Other women feel that self-proclaimed soushoku-kei danshi (herbivore men) are weak and not masculine, while some men apparently are not attracted to “independent” women.[9][16][17] In a 2011 poll of Japanese boys aged between sixteen and nineteen, 36% said they were not interested in having sex; the figure for girls in the same age group was nearly double, at 59%.[18] Masahiro Morioka argues that Japanese herbivore men are a result of Japan’s post-war peace.[19]”

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It all stems for demographics. Juice, why do you think there is no job creation, inflation, and strong deflationary measures? Their demographic bubble popped. Why do you think they had such a good economy when the largest segment of their population, the elderly, were young and in prime spending years? Why? And why did their economy began to shrink when the largest segment of their population started to get old, retire, and reduce spending? Without their spending, business activity contracted, followed by loss of jobs, and now stuck in huge rut till they get a population large enough that spends/consumes and brings back demand, leading to investment and job creation. They are screwed for a very long time.

    Juice Box says:
    August 28, 2016 at 12:22 pm
    Yeah there are a few categories of Grass Eaters. Freeters, NEETs, Hikkikomori etc. Karoshi suicide, anxiety disorders are a big big problem, and it is all do to not being able to find and keep a good paying job, now translating into to low low household formation and births.

    There is no reason for it other than to continue to sweep the excess of their bubble now over 25 years ago under the rug.

  41. Sometimes repetition of factual data helps when Pumps gets all lathered up in one of his denial rants.


    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34.
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That was due to the biggest bust in business activity in almost a 100 years. Don’t tell me you think this is a permanent trend? This won’t be happening in the 2020’s.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    August 28, 2016 at 12:31 pm
    Sometimes repetition of factual data helps when Pumps gets all lathered up in one of his denial rants.

    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34.
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34
    Now, for the first time in 130 years, living with your parents has become the most common living arrangement for young men and women aged 18 to 34

  43. I think Pumps is missing his old life, back before he got married, bought the money pit, and had a kid. P0rn, pizza, and money with a full paycheck in your pocket while living at Mom’s house is looking like a pretty good life in the rearview mirror, huh Pumps?

    Pumps has grass-eater envy.

  44. Juice Box says:

    Pumps you don’t get 10 million losers a whole generation of young men without the previous generations royally screwing up their kids and grand kids to the point where they no longer desire love and sex.

    Hinkaku and saving face in Japan loosely translated as dignity is held above all else. The older generations are the problem in Japan. When they are gone and only then they may begin to rebuild and form a new society.

  45. [47] You understand 130 > 100, right?

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Couldn’t agree more. This is what I have been trying to get you to understand. Japan will not be fixed till the older generation dies off. Their demographics are shot, killing the economy with it.

    Juice Box says:
    August 28, 2016 at 12:36 pm
    Pumps you don’t get 10 million losers a whole generation of young men without the previous generations royally screwing up their kids and grand kids to the point where they no longer desire love and sex.

    Hinkaku and saving face in Japan loosely translated as dignity is held above all else. The older generations are the problem in Japan. When they are gone and only then they may begin to rebuild and form a new society.

  47. [51] And the same goes for our economy. It will not be fixed until the millennials die off. Cheer up, Pumps. Your grandkids should do OK.

  48. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8moax_85j8

    Got a cold market home
    I got a cold market home
    Yes, I got a cold market home
    Got me so blind I can’t see
    But she’s a cold market home
    And she’s tryin’ to make an assh0le out of me

    Don’t deflate on me baby
    Don’t deflate on me baby
    Yes, don’t deflate on me baby
    You’re messin’ around with your tricks
    Don’t deflate on me baby
    ‘Cause you might just break up my magic schtick

    You got your spell on me baby
    You got your spell on me baby
    Yes, you got your spell on me baby
    You’re turning my heart into stone
    I need you so bad, Colonial, I can’t leave you alone

    Love the tax on you baby
    Love the tax on you baby
    Yes, Love the tax on you baby
    It’s how I pay for society
    Love the tax on you baby
    I’ll pay it forever while praying for some equity

  49. Ben says:

    My parents bought a big home in Winter Springs Florida in 1988 when my father got a huge medical job offer there out of residency. They paid $660k for the home. Ultimately, once the job didn’t pan out and my family quickly realized they hated Florida (which took about 6 months), they moved back to NJ. They ultimately sold the home at a 200k loss.

    This is in an exclusive gated community. When we lived there, we had 3 players from the newly created Orlando Magic living there as neighbors. We also had a neighbor 5 doors down who won what was, at the time, the biggest lottery jackpot in the history of the U.S.

    Fast forward to today, 2016, nearly 30 years later. The home is currently listed for sale and it has been for 2 years. Started out at $825k in 2014 but never went. Price has been lowered over time all the way down to it’s current price of $679k….and it’s still not going. Ultimately, it looks like that it won’t even go for the original $660k price tag that it fetched in 1988. That’s 30 years, and zero appreciation on the original purchase price. So no…in the long term, everyone does not win if they hold onto real estate.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/770-Bear-Creek-Cir-Winter-Springs-FL-32708/47641670_zpid/

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ben, that’s why buying in locations like central Florida are not good moves. Wait till all these baby boomers that went to the south in retirement communities start to sell their homes. There won’t be anyone to buy it, esp if it’s a 55 and older community.

    You don’t want to buy in Texas or any of these other “flavor of the month” type locations. They have so much land available, that it’s almost impossible for your land to go up in value. Stick to the established power locations that have been valuable for more than 200 years. Don’t go these new spots with endless construction going on. No one wants an old house in places like Texas or Florida. They just keep building new developments. Those developments all go to crap within 10-20 years of being built. All of this applies to the current “flavors of the month” north and South Carolina. Development city, and they will not be able to handle all this new traffic, just like Texas and the other sun belt locations. Building too fast, without much thinking. Just lure people on the idea of a cheap new home with low taxes….never telling them the mess they will be in 10 years from now.

  51. No One says:

    If they had bought a house for the same price in Winter Park, FL, rather than Winter Springs, the house would likely have appreciated in price. The house is over 200% of the zip code median- having the highest priced home in town can hurt appreciation potential as well. But there will be a constant flow of retirees moving out of high cost NJ and NY and into Florida in coming years.

  52. 30 year realtor says:

    You continue to speak loudly. Keep up the good work. There were more to choose from but for today this said it best.

    Captain Nom Deplume, Besotted Rummy says: I’ll miss Sears but the market won’t. I’ll miss K-Mart because those stores kept that element away from places I would shop.

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Two gem comments on retirement.

    “2. AGING IN PLACE IS GOOD FOR EVERYONE. Adult children can move in with their aging parents. Aging parents can stay more connected to their past instead of dashing off to Florida and starting anew, which often doesn’t turn out well. Communities of seniors stay intact and support one another. Aging homeowners stay physically active by gardening and maintaining their half-acre lots. The environment benefits from less carbon emissions and sprawl of new senior condos being built. Seniors live cheaply and reap the rewards of their investment; they have no mortgage payment and no commuting costs. They can even rent out rooms. They can use zoned air conditioning to reduce utility bills. They have all day long to maintain their yards and even grow their own fruits and vegetables. They can continue to have pets, which ease the emotional alienation that can often occur to the elderly. These huge houses in suburbia are the perfect places for retirees. Sadly, human restlessness and desire for change often screws up a good thing. That and real estate agents. To all seniors: stay in your houses! You will live longer and be happier! And so will your children and grandchildren be happier. Besides, Florida is the least healthy climate I can imagine for anyone. It’s way too hot and humid. Especially with global warming”

    “You’re right, and a lot of elderly are (wisely) content to stay in their large homes. But it’s the old fantasy of retiring to a beachfront condo in Florida, free from the memories prompted by dusty picture frames of the (now grown) kids back when they used to play Little League. Americans like to look forward, not backward. It’s in our DNA. (See the famous writings of Alexis De Tocqueville.) And real estate agents love to cash in, of course. Old people are sitting on homes that are all paid off. They’re bored and restless. They have lots of empty bedrooms that they can be made to feel guilty about. They’re easy targets. It’s a stupid scam. Old people need to do the smart thing like you and stay put. They will live longer and be happier. I’m a little younger than you but I plan to follow in your wise footsteps and do the same.”

  54. 3b says:

    29 . Pumps critical thinking skills? The article is garbage? All because it questions your world view or more precisely the fact you purchased a house? Why such hostility? Are you secretly concerned the article and others like it might be right? Is it that you doubt your decision?

  55. 3b says:

    #33 nj that is garbage! Pumps says so!! Do you need help with critical thinking skills. Pumps laid it all out for you early this morning. It’s obvious you need help with critical thinking skills.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do you think this will create a major problem in twenty years? With so many boomers having retirement communities erected to meet their demand, do we see prices go up through the early/mid 2020’s in these retirement communities only to crash due to lack of demand (not enough incoming retirees in gen x to buy) and then rise up again as the millennials hit retirement? These retirement communities might be the last impact boomers have on a real estate bubble.

    A lot of question marks for Florida real estate. What impact will climate change have there and how will it impact real estate? What happens if northeast changes tax laws and cater to the boomers by lowering the taxes on retirees and eliminating estate tax laws?

    No One says:
    August 28, 2016 at 6:02 pm
    If they had bought a house for the same price in Winter Park, FL, rather than Winter Springs, the house would likely have appreciated in price. The house is over 200% of the zip code median- having the highest priced home in town can hurt appreciation potential as well. But there will be a constant flow of retirees moving out of high cost NJ and NY and into Florida in coming years.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    59- Told you why it’s garbage, not going to go back and forth if you refuse to read what I write.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Expat, and all the other tax haters, great quotes for you.

    “On June 1, 1937 Roosevelt gave a speech on the topic of tax evasion, and again he invoked a version of the saying. This time the words matched the 1927 quote [FDRO]

    Mr. Justice Holmes said “Taxes are what we pay for civilized society.” Too many individuals, however, want the civilization at a discount.

    In 1938 Felix Frankfurter presented an anecdote about Holmes as mentioned earlier. Holmes reportedly said the following [ATFF]:

    I like to pay taxes. With them I buy civilization.”

    http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/04/13/taxes-civilize/

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup

    “In 1916 the State School Supervisor of Georgia argued for the use of taxes to support schools. He invoked a concise version of the quotation under investigation [CDFL]:

    Taxation for schools is American and democratic. “Taxation is the price of civilization.” “Only the savage pays no taxes.””

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agreed.

    “In 1918 an article in the periodical Forum by Perley Morse said this [FRPM]:

    Taxes are the price of development and civilization, and it is worth it.”

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Some people have trouble understanding this.

    “In 1866 a book titled “Christian Ethics or The Science of Duty” suggested that taxes are used to assure “life and property” [CEJA]:

    A man’s taxes are what he pays for the protection of his life and property, and for the conditions of public prosperity in which he shares. He ought to pay his just portion of the expense of government.”

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    As simple as that. Do you understand 3b and expat?

    “In 1848 a committee report to the State Senate of Ohio emphasized that taxation paid for “social order” [JSOH]:

    Rightful taxation is the price of social order. In other words, it is that portion of the citizen’s property which he yields up to the government in order to provide for the protection of all the rest. It is not to be wantonly levied on the citizen, nor levied at all except in return for benefits conferred.”

  63. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    Nom [32];

    I’ll miss K-Mart because those stores kept that element away from places I would shop.

    Ain’t that the truth. Target in Westbury went to sh!t after the K-Mart on Old Country Rd closed. I suppose it got better when WalMart took over K-Mart’s space, but can’t tell you from personal experience.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Deplumiest. says:

    [63] pumpkin

    Is there another verse in your song?

    And you are preaching to the choir. No one disputes taxes are necessary. What is disputed are amounts, allocation and distribution.

    Is that clear enough for you?

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup.

    “What is so idiotic is this theory that millennials are going to continue to act like 20 somethings into their late 30’s. Basically what happens to every single generation in America is that they one day grow up, find a partner, then have kids and move out to the suburbs. Cities are not conducive to the family environment. There is no room to raise 2.5 children in a 500 SF apartment. The schools in inner cities are usually terrible, and there is nothing to do other than drink in a bar, go out to eat, see a movie/play, or go to a museum. In ten years we will be hearing how generation Z loves to be in cities, with no cars yadda yadda.”

    Response

    “I know lots of people who have children in cities. Its actually really easy. The kids share a bedroom. These great suburban schools you talk about, where are they? Obv picking a public school in a city is a mammoth proposition, but schools have been in sharp decline in the suburb. Only a small percentage of suburbs have top tier schools now. Its not about acting like “twenty somethings” its about caring about life experiences not materialism. Its about not caring about having a living room and a den, when one works just fine. Its about not needing tons of storage for tons of crap made in china. Its about sharing a car, or using public transportation and sending your kids to a middle tier private school. The dream of living in a giant house with two living rooms and 4 tvs, and 3 cars is not a dream that millennials buy into, and they seem to be happier than your generation. Keep up the consuming! ”

    Response to response

    “First off I am a millennial (born in 1980) and when we were in our early 20’s, yes the concept of living in a suburb was terrifying. Now guess what, most people my age are in the burbs and married with kids. Suburban schools, are millions of light-years better than the NYC public school system. If you want to debate that then you are severely misinformed. I want to see a family “share a car” with others. Yeah that’ll be the day. Also those life experiences will very soon seem boring when you realize that all there is to do in that overrated city is drink at a bar, spend all your money in a restaurant, or go to some boring museum. Where’s the golf course? Where’s the beach? Where is there a park that you can wander around for miles without being surrounded by thousands of people? Seriously, when you grow up, you’ll see that I am right. Also one last thing, as cool as you think you are that you live in the city will turn into how cool you are to have the big house, Mercedes, and pool when you are in your mid-30s. Trust me… it will happen”

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