Affordability Sucks, Inventory Sucks, Housing Sucks

From HousingWire:

Looking to buy a home? Now is not the time

The summer heat also brought with it rising home prices, which reached levels not seen since before the housing crisis. Now, however, as the heat subsides and we move into autumn, high home prices are not leaving.

Actually, data from realtor.com predicts we will have the hottest fall in a decade, and I’m not talking about temperatures. The housing market continues to see a rise in home prices and a drop in inventory.

While this is great news for sellers or homeowners, the news isn’t as welcome to potential homebuyers.

In other words, here’s why you should wait to buy a home.

Inventory also remains down as less than 450,000 new listings came on the market in September, while the median home price rose 9% from last year to $250,000, a new high for the month, according to the data from realtor.com.

In August, Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, said that without new housing construction, the housing recovery could stall.

Housing inventory declined annually for 15 consecutive months, and properties closed 11 days quicker than August last year, according to the Pending Home sales report by NAR.

These constraints keep home buyers out of the market, despite mortgage rates being at historical lows. Last week, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage decreased again to a 10-week low, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.

This trend looks like it will continue not just in the fall, but even into 2017.

Nationally, home affordability is at its worst level in seven years, with 24% of the U.S. county housing markets less affordable than their historic affordability averages in the third quarter, the most recent ATTOM Data Solutions Home Affordability Index for third quarter 2016 recorded.

However, not all hope is lost. The most recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices results showed that household incomes are actually rising faster than home prices, leading some experts to believe the affordability crisis could be almost over.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

65 Responses to Affordability Sucks, Inventory Sucks, Housing Sucks

  1. grim says:

    Speculation that Matthew is a Cat 5 this morning slamming into Haiti. Landslides already reported.

    Track is now all over the place.

  2. NeverTrump (the good one) says:

    where’s michael at?

  3. grim says:

    In proxy/web filter hell, probably. Clear the guy ever only blogged from work. We actually lost quite a bit of traffic when the blog moved to a different IP.

    Figure there were lots of IT admins that read the blog years back, and they opened up proxies/filters to read the blog, and it stayed whitelisted for many years.

  4. NeverTrump (the good one) says:

    Michael if u r reading this come back the blog needs you. if anything most of your predictions are becoming true. don’t be lonely out there the njrealestste community is here for ya. that woman you fight so much with hasn’t been around and i bet she can’t wait to get into it with you again but even if you don’t come back don’t forget to vote. nevertrump

  5. grim says:

    Trump is done, it’s over. Both campaigns should just save their money at this point.

  6. Fabius Maximus says:

    He’s not done, he’s The Donald. Polls, merely a flesh wound.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-colorado-comeback-229070

    “Many people have said over the years I perform better under pressure than anyone they have ever seen,” Trump said.

  7. D-FENS says:

    Grim, why would you say that :(

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37SrQdIqKiU

  8. Grim says:

    Is the adult debate tonight?

  9. Pumps? He used to run paste-a-thons late into every night and every weekend too.

    Clear the guy ever only blogged from work.

  10. Why would Clinton ever stop spending? She gets her money for nothing and her chicks for free.

    Trump is done, it’s over. Both campaigns should just save their money at this point.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    A Nobel……Obama points to that as an affirmation? Truly ironic….

    Fabius Maximus says:
    October 3, 2016 at 11:47 pm
    CHI
    “Obama is such an arrogant asshole…how can you be quoted saying this? “Objectively, if you look back, we managed what was the largest environmental disaster in American history — at least in the continental United States — better than or as well as any administration ever has.”

    Very, very easily. You measure against Katrina.

    My favorite part from that article
    “And we literally had to invent a way to solve it. It came in very handy that I had a Nobel Prize–winning physicist as my Energy secretary. And he literally designed a little cap that essentially served as the specs for the construction of a mechanism to close the darn hole. But that took three months!”

  12. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    ChiFi,

    No one likes obamacare and it was always intended by its proponents to be the bridge to single payer.

    What I find interesting is that Bill didn’t go forward, he went backward. And so did Hillary.

    I said it before, I’ll say it again. She will throw the left under the bus if she starts getting killed in the polls and midterms.

    And Rory is wrong again–Clinton is winning this in a walk. All that advance work over the winter paid off.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    Rory,

    “Very, very easily. You measure against Katrina.”

    A false equivalence. With Katrina, you didn’t have the governor of Louisiana and the mayor of New Orleans fcuking things up.

    And in gov, you need a villain. BP filled that role nicely; with Katrina, there were villains but the media and the left (really, one and the same) chose to focus on the least culpable. The voters in Louisiana weren’t taken in by that and they unelected Blanco and Nagin.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    Rory,

    I preferred 52.

    I said it before, I’ll say it again: Obama actually did not want, nor implemented policies to promote, two things he is actually trying to take credit for: Lower gas prices (anti-environment) and a higher stock market (generating inequality). Both would have been very different had he actually succeeded in implementing all of his agenda.

    He has “succeeded” only because the legislative branch prevented the left’s worst excesses. The GOP saved Obama from himself.

  15. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    I am beginning to think that Hillary’s “hot mic” moments, and Bill’s oblique criticism of Obamacare aren’t accidents. To quote Nicki Parsons, “these guys don’t do random.”

    I think it is part of the triangulation: The left flank is secure, now to shore up the middle. I thought she would go middle before the convention but the success of Bernie and the need to quell the insurrection in the party delayed that. Now we see her distancing herself from Obama and the Berniebots, and attempting to appeal to the suburban working vote.

  16. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Not liking the track for Matt. It’s still about two days too early to call, but this one might impact us both wind and rain wise. It’s taking that mostly northerly track I was concerned about.

  17. Fabius Maximus says:

    Chi,

    Sorry they don’t have real Nobels in your area of Finance or Accountacy, Feel free to try for Mathematics.

  18. Fabius Maximus says:

    Eddie Ray

    O had a guy who came up with the Solution. Katrina had Bush’s Campaign manager and his buddy, Micheal Brown, a real winner. At least he resigned when he realized how far out of his depth he was.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Re: Katrina

    How convenient to assume Oblammy would have handled it much differently.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    “And Rory is wrong again–Clinton is winning this in a walk.”

    When have I ever said this is anything other than a walk. I called this election back in 2008 http://njrereport.com/index.php/2012/09/13/foreclosures-up-but-still-at-a-very-low-level/#comment-523065

    I amended that 2012 call to say that if Hillary ran in 2016 they could move 2020 out to 2024.

    I’m still holding with my number from a few months back of 353.

  21. Fabius Maximus says:

    Fast Eddie,

    The difference is that, all of O’s hires at least have competency in the role and are not just there as they are buddies.

    An before Eddie Ray starts, “Harriet Miers” #FTW

  22. D-FENS says:

    did you bookmark your own comment you dork?

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    The difference is that, all of O’s hires at least have competency in the role and are not just there as they are buddies.

    Sure. And that $887,000,000,000 went to shovel ready jobs, too.

  24. Fabius Maximus says:

    D-FENS

    Us dorks know how to use a search engine. Grass is cut, now off to the mall to race GoKarts with my kid.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Fab – get back on your meds, cronyism and incompetence is the hallmark of any government program or agency.

    Here is one to chew on. CGI Federal and the $678 million dollar no-bid Obamacare website failure that went to Michelle’s buddy Toni Townes-Whitley. The optics and press was so bad they had to dump them and sign another huge contract with Accenture.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    Rory

    “The difference is that, all of O’s hires at least have competency in the role and are not just there as they are buddies.”

    AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. GOOD ONE!!!!

    I tried a reply from another device but got shut down by a work server I think. I can name some famous flameouts of utterly unqualified appointments made by Obama who even the Dems wouldn’t defend. One of those people I know personally.

  27. prtraders says:

    Looking for opinions on crawlspaces. I peeked into mine the other day and saw nearly half of the insulation falling down. A little internet research showed two schools of thought regarding the maintenance of the crawlspace for optimum energy efficiency and comfort. Seems like there has been a push to treat the crawl like any other room in the house. Which means conditioning it with insulation all around, vapor barrier, dehumidifier, closing up vents, installing pumps if necessary etc… Mine looks to be just dirt floor, block walls, and vents…. Some people think this is correct as it allows condensation and moisture to dissipate. Whereas as a fully sealed crawl will keep all the moisture in if it should develop. I’m down the shore, no basements in my neighborhood.

  28. Juice Box says:

    This listing needs meds too. Owner has been in the house two years….Other than a new kitchen and partial bathroom remodel it is the same 31 year old house with the pink jacuzzi tub from 1985.

    It is right on the Train tracks where they might put up new 150 ft tall monopole 200kv transmission lines, once the construction starts it will be listed for $465,000 again.

    Check out the pricing over the last three years after it was forclosed on.

    09/24/16 Price change $650,000-3.7% $168 RE/MAX Generat…
    08/19/16 Price change $675,000-3.6% $175 RE/MAX Generat…
    07/22/16 Listed for sale $700,000+50.5% $181 RE/MAX Generat…
    01/02/14 Sold $465,000+23.2% $120 Public Record
    08/23/13 Sold: Foreclosed to lender — $0 Public Record
    09/07/01 Sold $377,500 $97 Public Record

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Red-Bank-NJ/39331919_zpid/40514_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/40.376334,-74.063087,40.322827,-74.118018_rect/13_zm/

  29. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    Final question for the day: Good time to purchase euros and pounds? Yes? No?

  30. Anon E. Moose, Second Coming of JJ says:

    This just in: Wikileaks’ Assange canceled the public balcony release of Clinton dox due to inclement weather: Forecast called for heavy Killary drone overcast.

  31. I’d say yes to pounds, no to euros. YMMV, but I’ve done very well with a couple UK ADRs since Brexit. I bought ARMH the day of Brexit, that was just dumb luck, but I bought NGLOY in the Spring, added during the Summer and just sold 43% of my position in the last two weeks. My currency worldview right now is that there are only three types of good cash, dollars, pounds, and yen. I don’t want to own anything that doesn’t settle into one of those three.

  32. BTW, I liked NGLOY (AAL on the London Exchange) because of their focused and detailed downsizing plan. They are in the process of selling every mine they own that isn’t focused on what they’ve determined to be their new core products: diamonds, copper, platinum. They have been paying down debt with all the sales proceeds from the mining operations of other products.

  33. Juice Box says:

    Get your generator primed and your eggs, milk and bread before it’s sold out the “cone of uncertainty” puts the Hurricane off the NJ Coast on Sunday morning!

  34. Essex says:

    Cuddle up my little dove, and we’ll ride down into – into the tunnel of love…

  35. Comrade Nom Deplume, still fcuking around at work says:

    Juice,

    Tanked up at Costco-Moorestown and filled two 5 gal cans. Now over 20 gallons stabilized and on hand.

    If we get another Sandy scenario, PA stations will be clogged with NJ drivers.

  36. D-FENS says:

    Hacked Clinton foundation documents leaked today. Show Dems funneled TARP money to their PACs.

  37. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Predicted track is for PAIN! Looks to be more winds than rain at this point, but the winds could be pretty strong. I wonder if NJ Transit will get smart this time and close the tubes under the river. Probably not. It’s definitely a fill your gas cans event at this point.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    I think that when Tom Brady takes the field Sunday, they should blare “Tom Sawyer” by Rush.

    “A modern-day warrior
    Mean, mean stride
    Today’s Tom Brady
    Mean, mean pride”

  39. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Gayest post ever there Nom.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplorable, verbally armed and dangerous says:

    Bite me, Lib.

    As it turns out, Tom Brady is a huge Rush fan and they play it for the quarterbacks during pregame. So it will probably resound at Gillette to be followed by 50,000 voices screaming “Roger Sucks”

  41. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Storm heading due east off Georgia again. I think it’s avoiding Plumpy!

  42. joyce says:

    Is there an update to the euro model?

  43. Grim says:

    NOAA is hard to beat:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/114739.shtml?gm_track

    They take into account the Euro.

    They, like most others, had this thing tracking way far out into the ocean all week.

  44. Grim says:

    Marla Maples leaked the taxes?

    This is fcking awesome.

  45. Mc Box says:

    Killer clowns for President. No need for the third party the Dems and Reps brought two clowns to the election.

  46. Sorry chi-fi, but Tim Kaine is a cunt.

  47. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Kaine might have been a better running mate for Hillary.

  48. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    I meant Trump. He’s equally as arrogant.

  49. Kind of a limp-wristed arrogance. Probably why Hillary picked him. If he’s caught boinking Robby Mook, it’s easier to contain than if Bill and Tim are tag-teaming Humma Weiner.

  50. I bet if Tim Kaine visited the Middle East his son would throw him off a roof top.

  51. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    If you close your eyes and listen to Pence speak, you can hear ‘W’.

  52. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration says:

    Gator and I were talking about the funding of Planned Parenthood and I made the suggestion that Planned Parenthood should stop providing abortions as long as they are accepting government financing. You would think a private entity could may a go at it as the demand is certainly there. So I started thinking of possible names for my new business. I first suggested, “Babies R not Us,” but Gator said I’d be sued. So I then suggested “Bye Bye Baby.” Now I can’t stop giggling like a schoolgirl.

  53. Hypothetical: Both presidential candidates trip and kill themselves while casting their election day votes. OK, Hillary fell on her own and bled out while Trump accidentally had his head run over by his Maybach limo. That said, which VP would you want taking the oath?

  54. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration (The good one) says:

    @TheTruthMonkey

    “Right hand person.” Not even Kaine thinks he’s a man. #KaineVsPence

  55. I think Hillary is summoning her strength right now to get out of bed and cane Kaine’s pee-pee.

  56. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration (The good one) says:

    I don’t think a limo could run over Trump’s head. It wouldn’t clear it.

  57. Steamturd thinking Cankles should be included in the hyper incarceration (The good one) says:

    Bye Bye Baby. I’m still laughing.

  58. No One says:

    It is funny. You and South Park make abortion funny.

  59. Abortion has always been funny.

  60. Down, down , baby
    My Daddy forgot to pull out his salami
    Down, down, baby
    My Mommy is pushing out my body
    Down, down, baby
    They’re selling off my stem cells (couldn’t figure out how to make it rhyme. Sorry)

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