The Trump Housing Market – Up or Down?

From Forbes:

How President Trump Could Affect The Value Of Your Home

In July the U.S. Census Bureau announced that the homeownership rate in this country had hit its lowest level since the government began measuring the stat in 1965. Then candidate Donald Trump jumped on the news with a tweet suggesting the figure proved his most consistent message: the economy is failing you.

In a nation in which homeownership is largely seen as synonymous with the American dream, it’s easy to see why a change candidate would highlight the record low rate. But at the time economists urged Americans–and candidates–to look beyond the eye-popping headline number. It turned out the decline in the rate had not been due to fewer people owning homes, but to more people forming households in rental properties. In other words, the dip may actually be a (good) sign that more young people are striking out on their own. Trump, a billionaire by way of real estate development, should understand this.

Demand: There are numerous ways Trump’s election could shake up Americans’ desire for housing. In the short term consumer confidence could track political party lines, which–probably not coincidentally–may mean a home sales slowdown in economically healthy blue-states and a sales pick up in red-states where growth has been slow. Notes Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at real estate listing site Trulia: “These geographically polarized effects may help housing markets converge between the Costly Coasts and the Bargain Belt. The net effect on U.S. consumer demand for homes will remain unclear.”

Other Trump priorities could further complicate the picture long term. Trump’s tax plan, for example, would give the most substantial cuts to high earners. Oren Jacobson, an analyst at New Home Star, which works with builders to manage home sales, notes the extra cash should increase upper income spending but it may not lead to greater consumption of housing nationwide since the wealthy tend to live in areas where home prices are already bolstered by scarcity.

If the president-elect’s $550 billion transportation and infrastructure plan creates jobs and boosts wages it should lead to greater housing demand and prices. Meanwhile, Trump’s controversial immigration stance could limit foreign investment in U.S. real estate, as well as the number of people who move here (legally or not), limiting price growth and household formation. This could boost the homeownership rate, since immigrants tend to rent rather than buy, but not for the reasons economists like to see.

Supply: A lack of inventory is widely considered the biggest current drag on the housing market. In an August speech to the National Association of Home Builders, Trump suggested he will encourage builders to build. He called the home building industry one of the most regulated in the country and estimated that 25% of the cost of a home is due to regulation. “I think we should get that down to about 2%,” he said. Further emphasizing his support for the industry, he added: “There is no greater thing you can do. If you can build a home, you can build anything.”

Mortgage rates: Mortgage rates have already begun rising post-election. Investors are responding to new uncertainty by pulling their money out of U.S. Treasury Bonds, which serve as a benchmark for mortgage rates, in favor of Japanese and European bonds. As a result the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has soared to 4% from as low as 3.34% in the past 12 months, according to MortgageNewsDaily.com. Expect a rocky rate road at least until inauguration day.

Credit availability: The Trump transition team has made it clear they plan to undo many banking regulations put in place following the financial crisis via Dodd-Frank Act. The sweeping law both created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and imposed limits on how much money big banks could lend out. “The Dodd-Frank economy does not work for working people,” notes the transition website. “The Financial Services Policy Implementation team will be working to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act and replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation.” If this dismantling makes it easier for banks to lend to average Americans this could increase the buyer pool and increase home prices. The danger, notes Jacobson, is that regulations are loosened too far and lead to another housing bubble.

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71 Responses to The Trump Housing Market – Up or Down?

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    NYC’s Trump Place Apartments to Drop Name Amid Tenant Outcry

    The Trump Place apartment complex on Manhattan’s Upper West Side is about to drop the president-elect’s name after an outcry by residents.

    The three rental buildings — at 140, 160 and 180 Riverside Blvd. — will be renamed for their street addresses, landlord Equity Residential said Tuesday in an e-mail. “We are assuming a more neutral building identity that will appeal to all current and future residents,” the Chicago-based company said. The Trump Place name is emblazoned on the apartment buildings in gold letters, which are set to be removed this week.
    Almost 600 people had signed an online petition urging the landlord to “Dump the Trump Name.” Equity Residential spokesman Marty McKenna said Tuesday that the company had a contractual obligation regarding the use of the name, and that the period of the contract has ended. The landlord has never paid the Trump Organization for use of the name, McKenna said in an e-mail.

    “We’re very pleased, people felt really good that they could do something,” Linda Gottlieb, one of the petition’s authors, said in a phone interview. “It was an empowering way to protest. It wasn’t a random protest, it was a very specific protest.”

  2. grim says:

    What’s the deal, I thought Trump was born into big money. Jamaica Estates when Trump was a kid? That was pretty boring middle class, no? Or, was it a much nicer place 50 years back?

    http://nypost.com/2016/11/10/this-couple-just-made-millions-off-trumps-childhood-home/

  3. Juice Box says:

    Jamaica Estates in upper middle class, there are no high-rise or low-rise projects in Jamaica Estates. I think that’s where they also filmed Coming to America the fathets house. My mom’s boyfriend also lives in Queens he says property taxes are very very low

  4. Juice Box says:

    Another thing about that part of Queens the trade up it would be like moving from Palisades Park to perhaps further up in Bergen County. Those Queens people over the decades traded up to towns out on Long Island.

  5. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    From Trump’s accent, as opposed to that of his kids, I’m guessing he wasn’t rubbing elbows with Rockefellers when he was a kid. At least not bigly.

  6. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    Any article on Trump and Housing is a 4-box Rorschach test. Axis 1: Do you like Trump? Axis 2: Do you like Housing? Which box are you in? Write accordingly —

    Trump fans bullish on housing? He’s gonna be HUGE, fantastic, unbelieveable;
    Anti-Trump and bullish on housing? He’s a drag on the market;
    Pro-Trump and housing bear? He’s going to being sanity to housing prices;
    Anti-Trump housing bear? Whatever happens to the housing market is Trump’s fault.

  7. I guess it won’t be long before I see little ads all over web pages with messages like “Trump wants you to Refinance Now”, “President Trump just lowered your car insuarance”, etc.

  8. grim says:

    Trump is going to make American houses HUGE again.

    Long builders.

  9. Trump doesn’t say HUGE anymore, believe me.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Zuck needs to block the NY Times for being a fake news site.

  11. Juice Box says:

    I gather the Greeks did not like Obama’s speech against nationalism.

    Violent anti-Obama protests break out in Athens

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/16/violent-anti-obama-protests-break-out-in-athens/

  12. DNC is dead (the good one) says:

    Calling for rape of woman because you hate her husband. Tell me again how our election set feminism back 50 years but that doesn’t? #Melania

  13. I think if these protests continue I’m going to have to go long bus companies:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OVHb-zc4Lw

  14. grim says:

    Thats a lot of busses

  15. Juice Box says:

    Go long eggs, the protestors are gearing up for Inauguration Day.

    “After this contentious election, thousands have protested Donald Trump across the country, with many protests in front of the president-elect’s hotels in New York and DC. Like the real estate mogul, protesters understand what’s important: “location, location, location.”
    Inauguration Day will be no different. On Monday, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit heard arguments from the Act Now to Stop War and End Racism (ANSWER) Coalition against the National Park Service, which decides where protesters can and cannot be on Inauguration Day. This year, ANSWER wants to be on Freedom Plaza and the sidewalk in front of Trump’s DC hotel. The Park Service wants to reserve it for the inaugural committee’s “ticketed bleacher viewing stands.”

    https://www.washingtonian.com/2016/11/15/inauguration-day-protest-might-face-restrictions/

  16. leftwing says:

    “Zuck needs to block the NY Times for being a fake news site.”
    Post of the day, and it’s early.

    “The three rental buildings — at 140, 160 and 180 Riverside Blvd. — will be renamed for their street addresses, landlord Equity Residential said Tuesday in an e-mail. We are assuming a more neutral building identity that will appeal to all current and future residents”
    So when do we start renaming all those Malcolm X streets and buildings? Ooops, or is my equity ‘racist’ again?

  17. Lost says:

    Why no attacks on any of the conservative propaganda machines? Only attack the left, we get it.

    leftwing says:
    November 16, 2016 at 11:08 am
    “Zuck needs to block the NY Times for being a fake news site.”
    Post of the day, and it’s early.

  18. Comrade Nom Deplorable, just waiting on the Zombie Apocalypse. says:

    Schumer as minority leader. The senator from Wall Street. I see a great opportunity for Trump to put him in a box and fracture the dem senate

  19. leftwing says:

    “Why no attacks on any of the conservative propaganda machines? Only attack the left, we get it.”

    No dingleberry, the point of the original post is that MSM is the Left, and the Left are too dense to understand that (ergo the election results, which still has MSM puzzled how they could have been so ‘off’).

  20. Lost says:

    The Great Pumpkin is coming. Pumpkin dead on in his inflationary predictions by 2017-2018. You guys still doubt the Great Pumpkin? Sick call way back in 2012, but was called an idiot over and over again.

    “The odds of a Fed move by December have risen from 68 percent at the start of November as inflation expectations surged.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-16/fed-rate-hike-odds-approach-100-in-anticipation-of-trumpenomics

  21. Lost says:

    Lefty, I understood it clearly, I was just questioning why you never attack some of the bs pushed by conservative propaganda machines in the media. Why only attack the left?

  22. Ben says:

    Lost pumpkin,

    a lot of us predicted inflation well before you ever did. The difference is, it’s not going into wages.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    Puzzy, where are you?

  24. leftwing says:

    I don’t ‘attack’ BS media Left or Right. The Post, Daily News, Examiner, HuffPost, and Breitbart are what they are. They know it and exist to provide red meat to their respective audiences.

    I do call out self righteous, arrogant media who attempt to parade as objective and ‘the standard’ while actually functioning instead as a monolithic editorial page, ie the Times and CBS. They purport to be better than that, and aren’t.

  25. leftwing says:

    Lost Pumpkin, I mocked you not for your call but for the timidity of it. Post decline calling something higher six years out. Kind of like saying in 2008 that the stock market would be higher by 2014.

    Can I call this toppy market higher in 2026 and come on weekly every time it moves up to pat myself on the back?

    Just stop. Thought you were gone.

  26. Juice Box says:

    My post was a reaction to Zuck and now Google saying they are going to block “fake” news sites.

    The drivel coming from the left easily matches anything the right wing has been putting out.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/5f1ef13e-c496-341e-a9ee-c2d08b7ebf17/ss_hundreds-walk-out-of-stanford.html

    Oh look, the toddlers are at it again. Sanctuary for illegals, how quaint. I want everyone to apply to Stanford and if rejected, sue for discrimination. Oh wait, you mean you actually have to apply? How come illegals don’t have to apply? If you’re white, you pay $60,000 a year in tuition. All others are exempt because love trumps hate (barf).

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Any college who discriminates and favors one group over another (the l1beral mantra) shall be denied Federal funding. Executive order! Trump has a pen and f.ucking phone, too!

  29. leftwing says:

    Eddie, don’t knock it, roll with it.

    Waiting for the ’23 and me’ test to come back on my youngest. Was hoping great grandma was a bit of a tramp and got nailed by the ‘right’ minority. If not, the college app backup plan for him was to just flat out lie and claim Native American, a la Elizabeth Warren.

    Now we have a new avenue. Hell of a lot easier and more fun to send him down to Mexico for a while, tan him up, lose his papers, and run to Stanford for reprieve.

    Roll with it ba-beee! For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

  30. Fast Eddie says:

    leftwing,

    I want to see the toddlers go full tantrum after the electoral college seals it and then again on inauguration day.

    Was hoping great grandma was a bit of a tramp and got nailed by the ‘right’ minority.

    lol!

  31. Lost says:

    Here we go. Now my call was obvious. I get how it works around here. You know how much heat I took calling for the return of wage inflation on the basis if it doesn’t happen, the economy will crash? I took immense heat. I was told wage inflation will never come back. I was also told that zirp was here to stay, that inflation would never come back. Go back and read my posts and the heat I took for them. I was also told that housing was dead over and over again, while I was screaming to buy as much as you can while the rates and prices stay low. Stated that anything you buy now will be worth significantly more in the 2020’s when wage inflation/inflation hit up an economy that is booming. I based all this on cyclical forces, demographics, and the timing of all this coming together at once. Stated that the 2020’s will be the best economy in our life. So stop crapping all over me and instead give respect where it is due. Be a man, all of you, and admit when you are wrong.

    leftwing says:
    November 16, 2016 at 11:37 am
    Lost Pumpkin, I mocked you not for your call but for the timidity of it. Post decline calling something higher six years out. Kind of like saying in 2008 that the stock market would be higher by 2014.

    Can I call this toppy market higher in 2026 and come on weekly every time it moves up to pat myself on the back?

    Just stop. Thought you were gone.

  32. I think this election was all about math:

    Choose 1:

    1. Sanders – We will all get wealthier by taking it from those Americans who are already wealthy. Sorry! That menu option is no longer available.

    2. Clinton – We’re already wealthy. Look at me!

    3. Trump – We’re going to stop giving away our resources to illegal aliens and we’re going to take our wealth back from the rest of the World and give less of it to Washington DC.

  33. The Great Pumpkin is coming. Pumpkin dead on in his inflationary predictions by 2017-2018. ability to swallow what he is fed. Lost will wish he sold his house and bought 30 year treasuries with the $10K that was his net profit.

  34. Puzzy Puzzy Poo, where are you?
    We’ve got some work to do now
    Puzzy Puzzy Poo, where are you?
    We need some help from you now
    Come on Puzzy Poo, I see you
    Pretending you’ve got a sliver
    You’re not foolin’ me ’cause I can see
    The way you shake and shiver

    You know we got a mystery to solve
    So Puzzy Poo get ready for your act
    Don’t hold back, ’cause Puzzy Poo
    When you come through you’re gonna have yourself
    A Puzzy Snack, that’s a fact

    Puzzy Puzzy Poo, where are you?
    You’re ready and you’re willin’
    If we can count on you Puzzy Poo
    I know we’ll catch the villain

    http://www.lyrics007.com/Scooby%20Doo%20Lyrics/Scooby%20Doo%20Theme%20Song%20Lyrics.html

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    ExPat,

    lol! Omg! :)

  36. Lost says:

    Dead on! What a hypocrisy.

    “”Less Government” is the central defining right-wing slogan. And yes, it’s all about “cheap labor”.

    Included within the slogan “less government” is the whole conservative set of assumptions about the nature of the “free market” and government’s role in that market.. In fact, the whole “public sector/private sector” distinction is an invention of the cheap-labor conservatives. They say that the “private sector” exists outside and independently of the “public sector”. The public sector, according to cheap-labor ideology, can only “interfere” with the “private sector”, and that such “interference” is “inefficient” and “unprincipled”.

    Using this ideology, the cheap-labor ideologue paints himself as a defender of “freedom” against “big government tyranny”. In fact, the whole idea that the “private sector” is independent of the public sector is totally bogus. In fact, “the market” is created by public laws, public institutions and public infrastructure.

    But the cheap-labor conservative isn’t really interested in “freedom”. What the he wants is the “privatized tyranny” of industrial serfdom, the main characteristic of which is – you guessed it – “cheap labor”.

    For proof, you need only look at exactly what constitutes “big government tyranny” and what doesn’t. It turns out that cheap-labor conservatives are BIG supporters of the most oppressive and heavy handed actions the government takes.”

    http://sideshow.me.uk/annex/defeattherightin3minutes.htm

  37. leftwing says:

    Pumps, back with a vengeance now and not even trying to hide it anymore….

    Last response to you. Go back and look at my replies to your ‘predictions’. I’ve always said the same thing.

    See ya.

  38. leftwing says:

    Ex 12:19

    Liking your ‘math’ post a lot. Need to get it out to a couple of buddies lol.

  39. Juice Box says:

    Get a load of the supermarket tabloid

    https://i.sli.mg/KJcJxI.png

  40. D-FENS says:

    @BridgetPhetasy Nov 15
    Witnessed this exchange getting coffee:

    White Woman: Keep fighting. I’m an ally.

    Latino Barista: I voted for Trump.

  41. Lost says:

    “Sounds to me like the cheap-labor conservatives have a peculiar definition of “freedom”. I mean, just what do these guys consider to be “tyranny”.

    That’s easy. Take a look.

    -“Social spending” otherwise known as “redistribution”. While they don’t mind tax dollars being used for killing people, using their taxes to feed people is “stealing”.
    Minimum wage laws.

    -Every piece of legislation ever proposed to improve working conditions, including the eight hour day, OSHA regulations, and even Child Labor laws.

    -Labor unions, who “extort” employers by collectively bargaining.

    -Environmental regulations and the EPA.

    -Federal support and federal standards for public education.

    -Civil rights legislation. There are still cheap-labor conservatives today, who were staunch defenders of “Jim Crow” – including conspicuously Buckley’s National Review. Apparently, federal laws ending segregation were “tyranny”, but segregation itself was not.

    -Public broadcasting – which is virtually the only source for classical music, opera, traditional theatre, traditional American music, oh yes, and Buckley’s Firing Line. This from the people constantly braying about the decay of “the culture”. The average cost of Public Television for each American is a whopping one dollar a year. “It’s tyranny I tell you. Enough’s enough!””

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    D-FENS,

    That’s priceless!

  43. Lost says:

    Go Trump! Bring on that infrastructure spending.

    “A key member of Donald Trump’s transition team said the incoming administration is exploring ways to fund fixing bridges and roads including by establishing an “infrastructure bank,” a concept Hillary Clinton promoted and the Republican’s campaign had previously derided.

    Steven Mnuchin, a member of the team’s executive committee who was recommended for the position of Treasury secretary, said in brief comments to reporters Wednesday that a “very big focus is regulatory changes, looking at the creation of an infrastructure bank to fund infrastructure investments.”

    Trump’s campaign had criticized Clinton’s proposed infrastructure bank as being “controlled by politicians and bureaucrats in Washington” and funded by a “$275 billion tax increase on American businesses.”

    The billionaire’s economic advisers previously said infrastructure spending can be unleashed without creating a government entity. They released a plan in October advocating the provision of as much as $140 billion in tax credits to support $1 trillion in infrastructure investment, which would offset the credits through tax revenue from the projects’ labor wages and business profits.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-16/trump-team-explores-infrastructure-bank-that-campaign-derided

  44. FOXNews.com – We Report. You Decide.
    CNN.com – We Decide. You do WTF we tell you to do.

  45. He’s going to widen your road and get the speed limit up to 55mph.

    Go Trump! Bring on that infrastructure spending.

  46. No One says:

    The last two times I’ve had 11am meetings in NYC, I’ve tried to drive in during off-rush hour traffic, and both times it’s taken me 2.5 hours on NJ/NY’s government run road systems. Christie was a total failure on this because after shutting down the tunnel project, he attempted zero innovative ideas for changing the system for the better. At least Trump recognizes that private investors should dramatically improve transportation investment efficiency and outcomes.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/video/trumps-infrastructure-investment-plan-evokes-ayn-rand/09F2FC66-0DD3-4755-A7E3-80D1BA69CD6C.html

  47. Sorry Pumps.

    TREASURIES-Yield curve flattens as U.S. data shows slower inflation
    U.S. producer prices and industrial production were both unexpectedly flat in October as a rise in the cost of goods was offset by declining services costs (Uhhhhh…., I think you would call that *lower* wages with *higher* prices, i.e. stagflation), and industrial production was weighed down by lower utilities output.

    Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were little changed in price to yield 2.244 percent.

    The 30-year bond rose 25/32 in price to yield 2.940 percent, moving further from its 2016 high of 3.067 percent touched on Monday.

    Conversely, 2-year Treasury notes fell 1/32 in price to yield 1.021 percent. Yields on the 2-year note earlier hit 1.03 percent, the highest since Jan. 4.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-idUSL1N1DH0ZS

  48. Lost says:

    “At least Trump recognizes that private investors should dramatically improve transportation investment efficiency and outcomes.”

    . In fact, the whole “public sector/private sector” distinction is an invention of the cheap-labor conservatives. They say that the “private sector” exists outside and independently of the “public sector”. The public sector, according to cheap-labor ideology, can only “interfere” with the “private sector”, and that such “interference” is “inefficient” and “unprincipled”.

    Using this ideology, the cheap-labor ideologue paints himself as a defender of “freedom” against “big government tyranny”. In fact, the whole idea that the “private sector” is independent of the public sector is totally bogus. In fact, “the market” is created by public laws, public institutions and public infrastructure.

  49. Not No One says:

    It took you that long, because after 9am it no longer commuter cars rush hour or peak EZ pass tolls, but it becomes the Interstate North or South passing thru Trucker’s rush hour.

    If you have to do anything in Manhattan, make it for the morning, the earlier the better. Cross before 6am. Get early bird cheap garage parking. Go spend time on breakfast on a diner or fancy hotel restaurant and kill a few hours. If you are out by 1:30-2pm you are ok.

    If stuck thru the afternoon, then get yourself a nice meal somewhere and catch a movie, by time you are done is 8:00 pm+ and should have a nice ride home.

  50. leftwing says:

    LOL. What the hell was Christie thinking? Was just reminded that Christie jailed the elder Kuschner when Christie was US District Attorney.

    So, as Governor, he held such petty grudges as to shut down the busiest bridge in the world to ‘punish’ a totally immaterial perceived ‘offense’.

    Did he not expect some similar form of payback after LOCKING UP Trump’s darling daughter’s father-in-law for two years? Seriously?

    “Yeah, Donald, I’ll take the Attorney General slot. Thanks. Tell Ivanka’s husband no harm, no foul on his dad for me, willya?” LOLOL.

  51. Juice Box says:

    Big whoop Obama did not even pick his cabinet, Citibank did.

    https://www.wikileaks.com/podesta-emails/emailid/15560

  52. Lost says:

    Expat

    “(Yields are) up 50 basis points or more recently largely because of Trump’s surprising win and sudden acceleration of inflation expectations,” he said. “Future policy and future inflation is much more important than if the PPI in the month of October is a little bit weaker than expected.”

  53. Tywin says:

    Bogus meme alert. Trump never said “bigly” (which is a real word) but rather “big league.”

  54. No One says:

    Chris Christie is possibly getting schlonged more often than Puzzy’s catamite. Even while winning CC is looking like a loser.

  55. No One says:

    Tywin,
    Thanks for mentioning, I was going to mention it myself after I found out about it recently.
    bigleague

  56. Not long yields, check TLT today and yesterday (and tomorrow, and the next day). BTW, you know that yields going up makes even houses on very busy streets less affordable, right? Maybe when NHMD takes off Millennials will use those profits for the down payment on their FHA mortgages, is that your plan?

    Expat

    “(Yields are) up 50 basis points or more recently largely because of Trump’s surprising win and sudden acceleration of inflation expectations,” he said. “Future policy and future inflation is much more important than if the PPI in the month of October is a little bit weaker than expected.”

  57. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    “Not No One”

    Drive in plan is sound. You can even get to the tunnel as late as 6:45am. After that, every minute after adds 2 to 3 minutes to your commute

  58. I had a college girlfriend (from down neck, Newark) whose 17 year old brother got caught riding his dirt bike on the streets and was given a summons (no reg, no insurance, no license, no plates, etc.). He was had a learner’s permit for driving a car. His court date on the motorcycle offenses just happened to coincide with the day of his driving road test. He passed his road test in the afternoon and was issued a driver’s license and the judge in his motorcycle case suspended it for 6 months just hours later that evening.

  59. 3b says:

    Ex pat yep stagflation!!

  60. Grim says:

    I hear Trump is planning to announce the cabinet in a live TV special.

    He is going to put everyone on stage and then hand out roses.

  61. Will the walls fall down on the boardroom, showing the studio audience?

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  63. Vice President-elect Mike Pence has banished all lobbyists from Donald Trump’s transition team, reassuring critics who question the president-elect’s promise to “drain the swamp” of Washington, D.C.

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