A Trump Housing Market

From the WSJ:

Trump Win Makes It Tricky to Foresee Path of Housing Market

Before the presidential election, economists anticipated the housing market would continue its steady recovery in 2017. Growth in home prices and sales likely would slow after a four-year run-up, but new construction likely would pick up, bringing relief to those struggling to find affordable homes.

Most economists still hold to those predictions, but they now say Donald Trump’s victory could upend the market. As investors bet on faster growth—tied to tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending—mortgage rates have risen to 4.16% from 3.54% before the election, figures from mortgage giant Freddie Mac show.

If rates continue to rise quickly, it could make it more difficult for new buyers to afford homes and create a disincentive for current owners to sell their homes and give up ultra-low-rate loans.

Changes to immigration policies under a Trump administration also could put a damper on the market by exacerbating a shortage of workers to build new homes and by reducing the number of new households being formed. “If you pull back on immigration, you pull back on housing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.

On the other hand, economists said paring financial regulations—along with a stronger economy overall—could also give the housing market a lift.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, expects mortgage rates to rise to about 4.5% next year, which he said won’t be enough to dampen demand. He expects the volume of existing home sales to increase slightly, by 1% to 2%, but said the pace could accelerate or turn negative depending on various policy changes.

“Under a Trump presidency, he relishes unpredictability so there is a wide variance in the forecast outlook,” he said.

Mr. Zandi expects housing starts to rise to 1.4 million from about 1.2 million this year, an important boost to a market starved for new supply.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

39 Responses to A Trump Housing Market

  1. D-FENS says:

    Top story on NJ dot com and again they say that no other state has done this.

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/12/final_vote_monday_allowing_christie_book_deal_pay.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured

    George White, executive director for the New Jersey Press Association, also declined to discuss the details of the negotiations Sunday night, but said he remained hopeful a compromise could be reached.

    “What makes it so horrible from a public policy standpoint is the public notices statutes were written intentionally to remove politics from the public notice process,” White said.

    The current version of the bill could allow public officials to reward a newspaper with legal ad revenue if they like the news coverage, or pull the ads if they think the publication is not treating them fairly, he said.

    New Jersey would be the first state to repeal the legal ad requirement, White added.

  2. You do realize that “news” is written by 25 year old idiot and submitted to their 35 year old idiot editor, right? Or think of it this way, Pumps as an online news editor. Scary, right?

  3. It seems like there is a bandwagon forming with banners hanging on the sides advertising, “Trump Rally Intact! Stock Market will Continue To Rise Into the New Year!”

    That’s enough to give me pause when it comes to S&P 500 direction and a continued rise in interest rates. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10 year rates under 2% again in the near future, even if they don’t stay there long.

  4. nwnj3 says:

    The star liberal has sewn its own demise. They’ve apparently looked the other way on these backroom deals for decades where the public’s representation is nowhere to be found at the bargaining table.

    In this case, it’s their interests that are being trampled over and they want the public outcry. Sorry, where was the outrage at with the multitude of deals that were passed at the expense of the middle class?

  5. A Nitrous Oxide manufacturer blew up in Florida. Of course, everyone thought it was a laughing matter, but…

    http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/14/explosion-at-florida-factory-means-whipped-cream-shortage-this-christmas/

  6. nwnj3 says:

    Where was the SL outrage when politicians and special interest demanded in state tuition for people here illegally? Oh, thats right, they supported it.

  7. President-elect Donald Trump “doesn’t know much,” former President Bill Clinton told a local newspaper earlier this month, but “one thing he does know is how to get angry, white men to vote for him.”

    I guess there must have been a lot of them, then?

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/bill-clinton-trump-hillary-loss-232803

  8. BTW, they could have neutralized the votes of all those angry white men by at least 2 different methods:

    1. Create a domestic refugee program that brings all of them to places like New York, California, Illinois, and New Jersey where their votes won’t count.
    2. Don’t make them angry in the first place.

    Hahahahahahahaha

  9. grim says:

    We can still live life a quarter mile at a time, just a little slower.

  10. Tywin says:

    The WSJ exhibits the same moronic sentiments as “The prisons are full, even though crime has declined.” Shudder the thought that Americans have jobs, and money from those jobs, to buy things (including houses).

    “Changes to immigration policies under a Trump administration also could put a damper on the market by exacerbating a shortage of workers to build new homes and by reducing the number of new households being formed. “If you pull back on immigration, you pull back on housing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.”

  11. grim says:

    Americans can’t swing hammers?

  12. And if you pull back on housing, housing becomes more affordable. Eventually legal immigrants can buy Pumps house at a sheriff’s sale for half price.

    “If you pull back on immigration, you pull back on housing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.”

  13. Tywin says:

    They sure can. I was referring to construction jobs, if that was unclear. They can do landscaping, too.

    “Americans can’t swing hammers?”

  14. Comrade Nom Deplorable, Zombie Hunter says:

    Tywin

    I used a local guy for my landscaping this summer. Cheap as an illegal but dumb as a bag of hammers. I didn’t save any time because he required constant supervision.

    May still use him as a second pair of hands when I’m working in the yard but for projects, I’ll stop by my local HD and yell “Necessitamos dos hombres”.

  15. Comrade Nom Deplorable, Zombie Hunter says:

    ““If you pull back on immigration, you pull back on housing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.”

    Zandi’s neighborhood is growing like hell. Toll Bros looking to put a 300 unit dev. right on 202 just south of West Chester. Will completely f’up my drive north when I have to go that way.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Americans can’t swing hammers?

    You’re asking the snowflakes to leave their safe rooms and get blisters on their hands? The audacity!

  17. Raymond Reddington says:

    Eddie are you an ageist?

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Raymond,

    Perception is reality.

  19. D-FENS says:

    Chatter online comparing the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Turkey to the beginnings of WWI.

    The assassin appears to have been Turkish police or special forces assigned to protect him.

  20. grim says:

    Too early to say if he was a Muslim, an extremist, or a terrorist. We shouldn’t jump to conclusions.

  21. D-FENS says:

    Truck plowed into a crowded Christmas market in Berlin. Multiple casualties reported.

  22. D-FENS says:

    @ERushton
    Lorry just ploughed through Christmas market in #berlin. There is no road nearby. People crushed. I am safe. I am safe

    Emma Rushton ‏@ERushton 21m21 minutes ago
    @Rexamoto @ABC it was going 40 mph and it wasn’t near a road and no attempt to break

  23. Two other Clinton electors refusing to vote for Clinton.

    This whole mess is kind of backfiring on the sore losers, no?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/electoral-college-donald-trump_us_58581038e4b08debb78a05e8

  24. Clotpoll says:

    Anyone know where I can find jj-quality Mexican landscapers who ‘self-fertilize’ their finished work?

  25. Clotpoll says:

    Chifi, I was in the PRI last week. Not as colorful once they scrape all the junkies into shelters and injection houses. First time in ages I wasn’t aggressively panhandled.

    BTW, anyone wishing to take my an@l virginity better pack a lunch.

  26. Both newspapers reported it wasn’t not immediately clear whether the incident was an accident or some kind of an attack on the market.

    It’s also not immediately clear, to me, why the windshield looks like it was shot out with a large multitude of rounds.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/19/berlin-truck-crashes-into-christmas-market

  27. clot – you’re supposed to get them to buy you dinner first. Don’t believe the haters that say you’re not worth it.

    BTW, anyone wishing to take my an@l virginity better pack a lunch.

  28. nwnj3 says:

    Hopefully Germany is ready to awake from a 70 year slumber and assume a leadership position. Start by kicking out Merkel.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    Don’t you mean “pack a fudge?”

    Clotpoll says:
    December 19, 2016 at 3:05 pm
    BTW, anyone wishing to take my an@l virginity better pack a lunch.

  30. Essex says:

    3:13 …or a salad….

  31. Tywin says:

    A low estimate should have been the first red flag, low IQ the second. Can’t expect champagne results with a beer budget! Me, I’ve grown weary of the “no habla” when trying to get things done around the property.

    “I used a local guy for my landscaping this summer. Cheap as an illegal but dumb as a bag of hammers.”

  32. jcer says:

    I have found most people involved in the landscaping business have probably spent too much time sniffing lawn chemicals, of contractors they usually are by far the dumbest, even the owners of fairly successful landscaping companies often seem a bit slow. It’s almost like the guys who couldn’t cut it as carpenters or pool guys become landscapers. The migrant workers pretty much just follow directions without any thought, which is probably why they are the preferred workers, who else follows instructions for 10 bucks an hour, doing physical labor?

  33. Ben says:

    Let the propaganda war being

    http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/19/news/economy/tariffs-trump-argentina/index.html?ref=patrick.net&iid=hp-stack-dom

    U.S. experts warn that such a steep tariff in America would make imports — from cars to clothes — more expensive for the average American.

    Argentina’s tariff went so badly that the government is ending it starting next year.

    Funny how when Argentina began inflating, they were hailed by Yglesias and Krugman as a model for growth. Now that their inflation is out of control, they are going to blame tariffs for their problems. For all this hoopla about the fake news…the mainstream has simply turned into a propaganda arm with CNN and MSNBC operating for the left while Fox News operates for the right.

  34. So 2 Republican electors in Texas went against Trump. Meanwhile, 8 Democrat electors in 5 different states went against Clinton, though the 3 rogue votes in Maine, Minnesota, and Colorado were essentially over-ruled by the respective states. Nonetheless, she still lost 1/3rd of all her electoral votes in Washington and 1 in Hawaii.

    The final count was 304 for Trump, 227 for Clinton, 3 for former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and one each for Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul, John Kasich, and Faith Spotted Eagle, a Sioux leader and environmental activist.

    I guess it is safe to say that even with the Hollywood/Youtube/SNL/Stein/Podesta/MSM push to invalidate Trump’s win…the people speak once again and elected Hillary Clinton as the …

    Even BIGGER loser. Hahahahahahahaha

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