Corelogic: Rates won’t stop appreciation

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic predicts housing market growth in 2017

Economic growth will be the theme of the housing market in 2017, according to the forecast from Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic senior vice president and chief economist.

1. Increase in mortgage rates

Interest rates will average just over 4% next year, about 0.5% higher than in 2016, according to the forecast. Many expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds target several times in 2017. This increase could affect the cost of loans tied to short-term rates, such as home equity lines of credit.

2. Vacancy rates remain low

Vacancy rates will remain low in the rental market and even decrease in the housing market, according to CoreLogic. The low level of new homes built will keep for-sale inventories low in many markets.

3. Home appreciation will continue

While home prices will continue to increase, Nothaft stated that it could continue at a slower pace. In 2017, expect to see an increase of about 5% in home prices, however some neighborhoods could even see double-digit growth while others may decline. Rent price growth is also projected to moderate at 3% in 2017.

4. Reducing incentives to refinance

With higher mortgage rates, refinance originations will drop in 2017, the forecast shows. However, this decrease will be at least partially offset by higher purchase-money volume and second liens.

5. Credit risk to stay low

New loan originations will continue to show relatively low credit risk, Nothaft stated. CoreLogic’s Housing Credit Index shows that new single-family originations during the first half of 2016 show lower risk attributes than those made 15 years ago. Next year could see heightened fraud risks, however, credit risks still look favorable overall.

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60 Responses to Corelogic: Rates won’t stop appreciation

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    First batch of bourbon pretty much sold out in a day (other than Fabius who picked up the first two bottles the day before). We’re going to bottle a second batch next week (which will probably sell out in a day as well). BUT – for rum fans, we just did a limited bottling of our white rum for the holidays – only 60 bottles. Super premium small batch, aged 9 months in bourbon barrels. Incredibly smooth white rum, you could sip it neat all day long if you wanted to (not that we would recommend you drink irresponsibly). Notes of Vanilla, Caramel, Coconut, and Toasted Oak with a very smooth lingering finish. We will probably be open one night next week for tours/tastings. However, if you are looking for a bottle to gift (bourbon or rum), drop me a line and we can meet by appointment for a private tour of the distillery.

  3. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Save me a rum bottle please Grim. And we’ll take you up on that tour once the D’s brain finishes cooking. Lord knows I will need the stiffest drink ever once this thing is licked. Shoot me an email with what I owe you and the distillery address and I’ll swing by this weekend if someone will be there.

  4. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Dow 20K today.

  5. chicagofinance says:
  6. I’m hearing some new “this time it’s different” talk, specifically about S&P 500 P/E ratios.

    Chifi – are you on board with the “new normal”, where all of a sudden the market is not overvalued? I’m not.

    http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

  7. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    ExPat posted on Sunday: DNC Chair Says Russian Hackers Attacked The Committee Through Election Day

    Which was a real knee-slapper. I’m old enough to remember (two whole months ago) when the sitting Democrat President of the United States said “”There is no serious person out there who would suggest that you could even rig America’s elections,” and “Stop whining.”

    The self-beclowning of the left continues apace.

  8. chicagofinance says:

    Depeche Mode (clot Edition):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtNVpLn1ujI

  9. chicagofinance says:

    You are a technician not a valuation guy, so you really want to get into the minutiae here?

    There are a whole host of things going on…..I think we will not have sense of whether this is bullsh!t or not until March 1-ish……..

    keep an eye on pension obligations…..I think when we get to July 1, we will have a “miraculous” rebound in funding levels and Christie will try to take credit…….if you are familiar with pension accounting, you will have a sense of what I mean……if you know what many corporations have done to fix their pension albatross’s and also how the insurance companies have help fix things……repatriation to buy back stock….

    #1 Trump effect? Giving confidence to small business owners who are the job creators in the USA…….oh I forgot, you didn’t build that…..

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    December 20, 2016 at 9:21 am
    Chifi – are you on board with the “new normal”, where all of a sudden the market is not overvalued? I’m not.

  10. chicagofinance says:

    I distinctly remember being in a meeting at Prudential in Newark when the market was pimp slapping their results and the stock was at $58 on February 11th this year….

    now this….
    http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PRU?ltr=1

    This is a major insurance company….not some POS jerkwater…..

    All hail the demise of Obamunism…..

  11. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Valuations are completely fukced because earnings no longer come from growth. They come from layoffs and buying back shares. It is a new normal. But there are only so many shares to repurchase and workers to let go. Then we get back to the old normal. When that is, you’ll have to consult the great Blumpkin for.

    For what it’s worth, my company shipped me a tower of Godiva Chocolates for Xmas. In 18 years, I’ve received one silver bracelet which I was surprised to see in Cabo San Lucas being hawked by a beach solicitor for $5. It was an exact match.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    Is it ok to say I got a raise, bonus and promotion or am I somehow racist and privileged?

  13. Essex says:

    10:12 ^^ Really strange human

  14. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    I make privilege jokes all of the time. It’s my current excuse for everything.

  15. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Heck…even my kid is healing up, because of his privilege.

  16. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    It was my distinct honor and privilege to have not voted for Obama the second time.

  17. chicagofinance says:

    cool dude

    Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary’s umbilical stump says:
    December 20, 2016 at 10:17 am
    Heck…even my kid is healing up, because of his privilege.

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    Essex,

    Do you need a pillow, glass of water or something?

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Did I build it or did Obama give me those things?

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    Omg, the other side must be livid that we’re winning so much. The producers are finally putting the last eight years of ridicule in the rear view mirror.

  21. I just heard an ad on Bloomberg radio that began like this:

    “Mortgage interest rates over the last few weeks have absolutely plummeted!”

    https://www.americanfinancing.net/home

  22. Twitter used to make someone have a seizure. You can’t make this stuff up.

    The attacker tweeted under the name @jew_goldstein

    http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/16/13988894/david-eichenwald-seizure-tweet-attack

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    Re: The tragedy in Germany:

    “Crusades have consequences” — President Barack Obama

    Remember that phrase?

  24. jcer says:

    What’s going on in Europe is really terrible, it will inevitably lead to public backlash against the refugees. I understand the human toll and really feel for the Syrians but in a lot of ways I look at the countries in Europe where the people are facing economic malaise and these countries cannot pay their own bills or take care of their own people. How do you think the average tax payer must feel, 40% taken in taxes, their kids cannot find work, their purchasing power has been eroded, and their governments are broke and it showing, meanwhile they are borrowing so they can give charity to Syrians who aren’t their citizens, who they’ve done nothing to. Then to top it all off, bringing in the hoard has brought with them the destabilizing influences that existed in Syria and they are attacking civilians, mostly families who are out enjoying their traditions(Bastille Day Fireworks, German Christmas Markets, etc), it is about as cowardly as possible. This really could be the end of the EU, this issue I think put Brexit over the top, and put Trump in power.

  25. Essex says:

    10:50 Betcha you are the guy everyone walks away fron at Holiday Parties….

  26. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Only when he releases an air biscuit.

  27. Tywin says:

    jcer, wait until they each have 8 kids, and those kids have 8 kids, etc, etc, etc.

  28. Essex says:

    Seriously though, who gets online and crows about promotions and bonus’s — oh yeah….I forgot, JJ but look where that got him…..

  29. Essex says:

    Other thing which is repulsive is crowing about some massive victory in the election. Pathetic. Really.

  30. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    I hope you weren’t bothered by my mention of the Godiva tower!

  31. grim says:

    I thank god every day I wake up still breathing, everything else is gravy.

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    The promotion alone equates to approximately 15% increase for 2017. And with Trump as the president, add the investment gains on top. Winning!

  33. Tywin says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/24/us/cash-flowed-to-clinton-foundation-as-russians-pressed-for-control-of-uranium-company.html

    As the Russians gradually assumed control of Uranium One in three separate transactions from 2009 to 2013, Canadian records show, a flow of cash made its way to the Clinton Foundation. Uranium One’s chairman used his family foundation to make four donations totaling $2.35 million. Those contributions were not publicly disclosed by the Clintons, despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors. Other people with ties to the company made donations as well.

    And shortly after the Russians announced their intention to acquire a majority stake in Uranium One, Mr. Clinton received $500,000 for a Moscow speech from a Russian investment bank with links to the Kremlin that was promoting Uranium One stock.

    AMONG THE DONORS TO THE CLINTON FOUNDATION

    Frank Giustra: $31.3 million and a pledge for $100 million more. He built a company that later merged with Uranium One.

    Ian Telfer: $2.35 million. Mining investor who was chairman of Uranium One when an arm of the Russian government, Rosatom, acquired it.

    Paul Reynolds: $1 million to $5 million. Adviser on 2007 UrAsia-Uranium One merger. Later helped raise $260 million for the company.

    Frank Holmes: $250,000 to $500,000. Chief Executive of U.S. Global Investors Inc., which held $4.7 million in Uranium One shares in the first quarter of 2011.

    Neil Woodyer: $50,000 to $100,000. Adviser to Uranium One. Founded Endeavour Mining with Mr. Giustra.

    GMP Securities Ltd: Donating portion of profits. Worked on debt issue that raised $260 million for Uranium One.

  34. We have a new National Champion! Georgia!

    Georgia put more inmates to death than any other state this year, 9. Even though it’s a rebuilding year for Texas, they still managed to finish the season with 7 inmates put to death.

  35. Essex says:

    Go Eddie, post ur total income. We can all post ours and like whipping paper p#nis’s out feel like real cool folks. Oh Yeah…..me….have….biggest paycheck…..me pay most taxes…..me biggest suckkkker…

  36. grim says:

    Based on the blog work I’ve done over the past decade, I make about $0.03 an hour.

  37. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    ha ha

  38. chicagofinance says:

    essex: this is you…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wzEoCoXmf4

    Essex says:
    December 20, 2016 at 3:46 pm
    Go Eddie, post ur total income. We can all post ours and like whipping paper p#nis’s out feel like real cool folks. Oh Yeah…..me….have….biggest paycheck…..me pay most taxes…..me biggest suckkkker…

  39. Lost says:

    My best signal for the economy….fast eddie. Remember the good ol days when you wrote off the economy, thought raises were a relic from the past, and thought the housing market was overpriced and crashing? Times, they are a changin. Glad that you finally realize it. Just wish you understood it has nothing do with trump and everything to do with what pumpkin has been preaching on this blog.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 20, 2016 at 3:17 pm
    The promotion alone equates to approximately 15% increase for 2017. And with Trump as the president, add the investment gains on top. Winning!

  40. chicagofinance says:

    JJ fired twice in one year…….2016 was just not his time….
    http://nypost.com/2016/12/20/nfl-security-guard-fired-after-masturbating-during-game/

  41. Essex says:

    4:28- ew….

  42. Essex says:

    ChiFi….King Of Fixed Income & Bodily Excretions

  43. 3b says:

    The blog has gone mad! Now pumps is using fast as his example for all is well but is indicative of what pumps has been saying. He predicted it all!! And I thought he might want to get new skills!! He is a feckin genius!!

  44. That’s whacky.

    JJ fired twice in one year…….2016 was just not his time….
    http://nypost.com/2016/12/20/nfl-security-guard-fired-after-masturbating-during-game/

  45. Fabius Maximus says:

    Are we great yet Gary?
    I though T had this Jobs things solved?

    General Motors is cutting almost half the jobs at its only plant inside Detroit city limits.
    http://money.cnn.com/2016/12/20/news/companies/gm-plant-layoff/

    More Boeing job cuts ahead in the new year
    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-cuts/

  46. Fabius Maximus says:

    Grim,

    Didn’t want to brag, but honored to be first.

  47. Fabius Maximus says:

    “today’s soundtrack….”

    Is that the response the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame Voters gave, to DM and Kraftwerk?

    http://popcrush.com/2017-rock-and-roll-hall-of-fame-snubs-inductees-poll/

  48. Ben says:

    Depeche Mode snubbed. Love em. Not sure if they’ve done enough for HOF status. Janes addiction…2 hit wonder IMO.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    Well done

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    December 20, 2016 at 6:02 pm
    That’s whacky.

    JJ fired twice in one year…….2016 was just not his time….
    http://nypost.com/2016/12/20/nfl-security-guard-fired-after-masturbating-during-game/

  50. chicagofinance says:

    This killed their chances…..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7fGTd4VoA

    Ben says:
    December 20, 2016 at 10:48 pm
    Depeche Mode snubbed. Love em. Not sure if they’ve done enough for HOF status. Janes addiction…2 hit wonder IMO.

  51. Fabius Maximus says:

    This is an interesting read, I heard Green Day on Q104 a few months back and had a similar WTF moment.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-classic-rock-isnt-what-it-used-to-be/

    DM HOF is a No and always will be. Tupac, love the music, not HOF.
    Madonna NO, Donna Summer NO, it shows they really need to redefine.

  52. I have a theory that the last of the well-educated and principled USA-born adults were born around 1972-1975. I am not casting aspersions (yet) on the current crop of 18-22 year olds, but subtracting them out I think that people who are currently aged 25-41 might be the dumbest people the US has ever produced. I’ll give grim a pass as he seems wise beyond his years, but Pumpy is the archetype of the slump.

  53. No One says:

    Yes is a much better fit for the Rock hall of fame. DM might be good music, but is it rock?
    Maybe they should have put in King Crimson for impact and longevity.

  54. No One says:

    Fast Eddie,
    Congratulations!
    Haters gonna hate,
    Ainters gonna ain’t.

  55. Essex says:

    Stupids gonna stupid.

  56. Essex says:

    Don’t nobody give a damn if some cube dwelling wanker gets a bonus….

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