Time to lube the mortgage market

From Business Insider:

It hasn’t been this hard to buy a house in America since the financial crisis

Housing affordability in the US is at an eight-year low, according to Attom Data Solutions.

The parent company of RealtyTrac released its fourth-quarter affordability index on Thursday, which dropped to the lowest level since the same period in 2008.

And now mortgage rates are rising again. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage hit a two-year high of 4.3% this week. That was up from 4.16% last week, when the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate and signaled that it expected to hike in the new year more times than it previously thought.

Mortgage rates are still near historic lows, so the housing market is not seeing much of an effect yet. Some prospective buyers could rush to lock in the lowest rates possible in the next few months, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“The prospect of further interest rate hikes in 2017 will likely cause further deterioration of home affordability next year,” Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at Attom, said in a statement. “Absent a strong resurgence in wage growth, that will put downward pressure on home price appreciation in many local markets.”

Two other reports on Thursday showed that housing affordability could become an even bigger issue in 2017. The Home Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that year-over-year, home prices rose by 6.2% in the third quarter, a record high. And home values rose 6.5% in the year through November, the fastest pace since 2006, according to Zillow.

As with the prior housing crisis, strong buyer demand is fueling this price rally. This time, however, a shortage of inventory is also pumping up values.

This entry was posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

101 Responses to Time to lube the mortgage market

  1. grim says:

    As refi activity continues to fall off a cliff, and brokers are looking at the prospect of even less loans made, no doubt at all that the KY is going to come out and standards will slip to compensate for the loss of volume.

    It’s arguable that purchase mortgage loans stayed tight, because brokers had significant refi activity to keep cash coming in the door. But that door just closed. Race to the bottom starts now.

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Why millennials are smart (not entitled) for living with their parents

    The share of young Americans living with parents has reached its highest in 75 years.

    Nearly 40% of millennials are now living at home, according to an analysis of 2015 U.S. Census data from real estate listing site Trulia — the largest percentage since 1940. This is backed up by data released earlier this year by the Pew Research Center, a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. For the first time in more than 130 years, American adults aged 18 to 34 were more likely to be living in their parents’ home than living with a spouse or partner in their own household, it found.

    But before you get started on entitled, lazy millennials you should know this is not necessarily a bad thing, said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at personal finance website Bankrate.com. Most young Americans are just being financially savvy, he said.

    “Millennials have a greater inclination towards saving than their predecessors, and it’s easier to save when you’re living at home than it is when you’re out on your own,” he said. “Those years at home help establish a solid financial foundation so that they’re in a better position when they do move out.”

    Though the financial hurdles to homeownership are significant, McBride said social changes are the biggest driving factor in this uptick. The relationships between generations now are much closer, making living under the one roof easier (in theory at least). “The biggest reason is that is more accepted now among parents and their adult children and there is no social stigma to a 26-year-old still living at home,” he said.

    Building this foundation helps some millennials to skip the starter home and jump straight to a larger home in the suburbs when they do decide to buy, McBride said. Bankrate.com has found millennials between the age of 26 and 35 have the same preference for real estate as any other age group up to 70.

  3. D-FENS says:

    Never buy a “starter” home. Moving is an expensive proposition.

  4. Lost says:

    Agreed. If it’s an option for the individual, it’s an extremely advantageous decision.

    D-FENS says:
    December 23, 2016 at 8:30 am
    Never buy a “starter” home. Moving is an expensive proposition.

  5. Lost says:

    It’s all happening over again, like clockwork. Bring on the next bubble. Time to make some money off these cycles.

  6. walking bye says:

    Lost, 5 years ago I was told my dept would be eliminated. (I sent a lot of men south for retirement over the years as you have read) While many younger guys panicked and left for anything open back in 2011, my boss told me I’m guaranteeing you 5 years of employment no one can do that. I read your optimism, and I felt on a macro basis yes boomers would finally start retiring mid decade. Flash forward and I can say I landed a equivalent job 3 weeks after being let go with a very nice parting gift from my old company.

  7. walking bye says:

    I know, I know, please dont feed the pumpkin.

  8. Ben says:

    Agreed. If it’s an option for the individual, it’s an extremely advantageous decision.

    I put off buying for 6 years and just bought the house I plan to stay in for another 25 years. Worked much better. At the time, I contemplated buying a small condo for cash. At that point, it would have been equivalent to paying $5k a year in rent via property taxes as opposed to the $15k I was paying. It would have been better than letting it sit in the bank earning 1% but didn’t want to assume the downside risk of a price decline. Those declines were pretty much over by 2009 so it would have been a win.

    That being said, parking the money in some modest dividend paying stocks definitely yield much much much larger returns without any of the BS.

  9. grim says:

    Don’t ever buy a house you aren’t prepared to die in.

  10. Lost says:

    Glad my optimism helped you out. During the dark times, it’s hard to sometimes realize the light will return with so many negative factors hitting you in the face on a daily basis, but you have to remember it always runs in cycles. Good times, bad times, it’s the balance that occurs with every aspect of our life. Just remember, when the good times return, don’t get drunk off it, realize bad times will follow. And when the bust comes, don’t be scared, buy all you can in whatever you feel comfortable investing in.

    Best way to get wealthy in my opinion, is to have balls of steel, and play off these cycles. It’s not easy, the good times can get you drunk and cause you to go all in and lose all your money. The bad times can make you so scared that you miss every opportunity to make a killing. I’ll never ever make that mistake again. Back in 2008, I could have killed it with the sirius stock. It went as low as .10. Was going to buy 30,000 worth, but my wife and I discussed it, and thought the stock market was finished. It was a such a doom and gloom time, I thought it was seriously all over for the economy. Biggest mistake of my life. I would prob be retired at the age of 36. Would have took all that money I made and bought a significant amount of rentals in the down turn, but I pussed out and threw it all away. NEVER WILL MAKE THAT MISTAKE AGAIN.

  11. walking bye says:

    grim I bought in 2001 knowing I would move in 4 years after training. Doubled in 4 years. Downside is I bought 2005. Even with the loss on current home im still up 14% dollar wise plus roughly $50k which would have gone in rent. Prop Taxes were much more reasonable in 2001-4. Other than buying a lawn mower I did no upgrades or maint.

  12. Lost says:

    I did the same thing. I bought a house that I can live in till I retire. I will always keep my eyes open if something better comes along, but plan is to stay in this as long as I can.

    “I put off buying for 6 years and just bought the house I plan to stay in for another 25 years. “

  13. grim says:

    The other trend I think will be defining in this area is upgrade of housing stock.

    As mortgage lock-in becomes more prevalent, I believe owners will remodel and expand in lieu of selling and buying, especially in mid and upper tier towns.

    I suspect it will be significantly more cost effective to keep your existing mortgage, eliminate transaction costs, and make major upgrades instead.

    Trading a 3 handle for a 5 handle is going to be a sucker move.

  14. grim says:

    The rear family room add-on with master suite above will be the equivalent of the BMW/Mercedes in the driveway.

  15. Ottoman says:

    grim says:
    December 23, 2016 at 9:29 am
    Don’t ever buy a house you aren’t prepared to die in.

    That’s what we did this last time. Not that I plan to die living here but I plan to die owning it as our nj ny area vacation house.

  16. Ottoman says:

    You been living under a rock the past ten years? practically every street in every town that touches route 24 from Millburn to Morristown has a house being remodeled and or expanded by the current owners with no plans to sell and it’s been that way for years.

    grim says:
    December 23, 2016 at 10:14 am
    The other trend I think will be defining in this area is upgrade of housing stock.

    As mortgage lock-in becomes more prevalent, I believe owners will remodel and expand in lieu of selling and buying, especially in mid and upper tier towns.

    I suspect it will be significantly more cost effective to keep your existing mortgage, eliminate transaction costs, and make major upgrades instead.

  17. Lost says:

    I think northern nj is going to be gold mine for construction. So many houses need to be upgraded. Going to be a good opportunity for the trades business owners if they position themselves correctly. I wonder if economists take the coming construction boom in nj in consideration in their analysis of our economy. Going to be a lot of economic activity that comes with this renewal of the northern nj housing stock and infrastructure.

    grim says:
    December 23, 2016 at 10:14 am
    The other trend I think will be defining in this area is upgrade of housing stock.

    As mortgage lock-in becomes more prevalent, I believe owners will remodel and expand in lieu of selling and buying, especially in mid and upper tier towns.

    I suspect it will be significantly more cost effective to keep your existing mortgage, eliminate transaction costs, and make major upgrades instead.

    Trading a 3 handle for a 5 handle is going to be a sucker move.

  18. Fabius Maximus says:

    For those in here that were banging on about access and the Clinton Foundation. Are we getting crickits on this?
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/20/us/politics/donald-trump-family-charity-opening-day-foundation.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

    Is Trump going to get the same pass you gave GWB, Gary, Gary?

  19. yome says:

    Re: Condos
    Some Countries in Asia,has a mandatory 50 years after construction, building needs to be fixed,whatever the outside and inside needed and certified for another 25 years.Basically,if you bought a 30 year old condo you will be slapped with a bill that was agreed by the HOA or land sold to market value divided by the Corporation.. If you don’t have the cash,lien will be applied to condo and be sold.This is aside from the yearly HOA dues.
    Newer buildings,land is leased for 50 years.After the lease expires you have nothing. Some buyers do not know this.

    What are the Condominium laws in the US? The slab will not last forever
    I know

  20. Or…buy with 40% down, a mortgage you can pay on well under a single salary, and double pay your monthly payment early and often. Then you can do whatever you want.

    Moving into our rental January 1st, got the keys yesterday. My place will be on the market well before March 1st. I’m predicting there will be a radical, but temporary, retracement of interest rates that will fuel a red hot Spring market for me to sell into and after this Spring everyone who didn’t sell will wish they had as Housing Crash 2.0 begins.

    If the Pumperskin can just “predict” whatever suits him best financially, why can’t I?

    Don’t ever buy a house you aren’t prepared to die in.

  21. Either way, I can pay an awful lot of rent for an awful long time with $400K cash.

  22. Fabius Maximus says:

    “The bottom line is that small and medium-sized businesses now have the shackles removed. It’s 1% of the total picture, though.”

    Here’s what I see happening. The small and medium businesses are going to get hosed. The 1% will get their tax cuts and the taxes will get loaded onto the middle classes and these small businesses. Selling to all 50 states, where an agency provided a common standard across the country, you now have 50 standards to deal with. The big companies can afford that, the small companies its a deal breaker.

    Yes, you can find articles every day that counter the “Are we great yet”, and most of them are spot on. I hear all these people going on about T and the Carrier jobs and the IBM jobs. Ok, own the losses as well.

    Remember that Recession thing, where you lost your job, that wasn’t O’s fault. Thats coming again. You can’t blame O for that job loss or the string of McContract jobs after. Just don’t forget “at will” is two weeks.

  23. Fabius Maximus says:

    The comments around this are priceless.

    “Already forcing women to do something with their bodies against their will, and he’s not even president yet.”

    http://jezebel.com/the-rockettes-have-a-choice-perform-for-trump-or-lose-1790438403

    Are we great yet Gary?

  24. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    Fabu [11:07];

    Here’s what I see happening.

    When you open your mouth with your head up your arse, can you see daylight?

  25. What does McLaughlin mean by “between 7% and 10%”? Does he mean rates at 7-10% higher, like 4% moving to 4.4%, or does he mean prospective monthly payments moving up that much?

    BTW, why does the RE industry say that you should buy, buy, buy while rates are low and then when rates move up substantially the new call is, “It doesn’t really matter”? I guess that’s a rhetorical question.

    Mortgage rates would have to be a lot higher before they really crimp a buyers’ ability to afford a home – Trulia chief economist Ralph McLaughlin estimates between 7% and 10% for many metros – but in an era of ultra-low inventory and fast-moving markets, anything that adds to cost isn’t helpful for buyers.

  26. I think Pumps will definitely die in his home, probably by his own hand.

  27. Maybe the Rockettes will work up a new number with lyrics like, “Grab it, grab it, grab it” synched with every high leg kick?

    http://jezebel.com/the-rockettes-have-a-choice-perform-for-trump-or-lose-1790438403

  28. “Grab it, grab it, grab it, because we let you, let you, let you…”

  29. Fabius Maximus says:

    Moose,

    No I think in that situation, you can see a Conservative about to be born.

  30. gluteus – that’s what you want to happen. What you’re afraid of is Trump actually helping small businesses and unemployed minorities. The liberals are already in the sh!tter. What happens to their platform of “The MAN is holding you down!” when the “MAN” actually gives them a hand up? Pretty much a worthless platform if the Republican President and Congress actually does what the Democrats have been giving lip service to for 5 decades, right?

    Here’s what I see happening hope happens. The small and medium businesses are going to get hosed. The 1% will get their tax cuts and the taxes will get loaded onto the middle classes and these small businesses. Selling to all 50 states, where an agency provided a common standard across the country, you now have 50 standards to deal with. The big companies can afford that, the small companies its a deal breaker.

  31. Tywin says:

    “Don’t ever buy a house you aren’t prepared to die in.”

    Put that on NAR marketing materials. Last house we bought the seller brought a large six-figure check to the closing table. Housing is not an “investment” and you may get stuck for years in a house you don’t like. Love my house, will only leave it feet first.

  32. Pumps has his head so far up his arse he can see his breakfast.

  33. Eric Lipton is a Washington-based correspondent for The New York Times, where he writes about government relations, corporate agendas and Congress absolutely nothing except Trump attack pieces.

    http://www.nytimes.com/by/eric-lipton?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=Byline&region=Header&pgtype=article

  34. Essex says:

    Checks at the closing table. A cautionary tale. For those of us selling (soon) without an expectation of cashing out: a sobering reality. It will be interesting fo sho.

  35. Lost says:

    He’s absolutely right. If you are complaining about 4 or 5% rates, you are insane. These are extremely low rates in the grand scheme of historical rates. It would indeed take over 7% to start seeing a major impact on housing prices. And in all honesty, 7% might not be enough to slow it down.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    December 23, 2016 at 11:16 am
    What does McLaughlin mean by “between 7% and 10%”? Does he mean rates at 7-10% higher, like 4% moving to 4.4%, or does he mean prospective monthly payments moving up that much?

    BTW, why does the RE industry say that you should buy, buy, buy while rates are low and then when rates move up substantially the new call is, “It doesn’t really matter”? I guess that’s a rhetorical question.

    Mortgage rates would have to be a lot higher before they really crimp a buyers’ ability to afford a home – Trulia chief economist Ralph McLaughlin estimates between 7% and 10% for many metros – but in an era of ultra-low inventory and fast-moving markets, anything that adds to cost isn’t helpful for buyers.

  36. Lost says:

    You really think you are smarter than you really are. You are making a big mistake. You are giving someone an opportunity to make a lot of money off your property. The worse part, you are going straight into renting. You have to be insane. Renting make sense when the housing market is indeed crashing, but there is absolutely nothing that indicates housing is going to crash. Absolutely nothing. You are making a terrible financial mistake. You are getting rid of property that will be appreciating in the next 10 years to go and pay higher rent every year. You are insane.

    “I’m predicting there will be a radical, but temporary, retracement of interest rates that will fuel a red hot Spring market for me to sell into and after this Spring everyone who didn’t sell will wish they had as Housing Crash 2.0 begins.”

  37. Juice Box says:

    7% mortgages? That an extra $750 a month on a 400k mortgage.

    That means no more Benz in the driveway.

  38. Lost says:

    Fab, I really think you are looking at this through a biased perspective. I really think govt leadership needed an injection from a business perspective. This is a good thing for all of us. Did you read that article I posted yesterday from bloomberg about dimon? I really think they are taking a patriotic approach to America. They want what’s best for America. They are not selling us out. If they were moving businesses overseas, it’s because they had no choice. Let them create a business environment that makes America the place to be if you are starting a business. Why would you go against this?

    Fabius Maximus says:
    December 23, 2016 at 11:07 am
    “The bottom line is that small and medium-sized businesses now have the shackles removed. It’s 1% of the total picture, though.”

    Here’s what I see happening. The small and medium businesses are going to get hosed. The 1% will get their tax cuts and the taxes will get loaded onto the middle classes and these small businesses. Selling to all 50 states, where an agency provided a common standard across the country, you now have 50 standards to deal with. The big companies can afford that, the small companies its a deal breaker.

    Yes, you can find articles every day that counter the “Are we great yet”, and most of them are spot on. I hear all these people going on about T and the Carrier jobs and the IBM jobs. Ok, own the losses as well.

    Remember that Recession thing, where you lost your job, that wasn’t O’s fault. Thats coming again. You can’t blame O for that job loss or the string of McContract jobs after. Just don’t forget “at will” is two weeks

  39. Lost says:

    I’m not saying you are wrong, I agree, but I think you are underestimating how much money is out there. Just look at what prices people were purchasing at in the last real estate boom. Rates were 5-7% and how much did the real estate prices go up?

    Juice Box says:
    December 23, 2016 at 12:04 pm
    7% mortgages? That an extra $750 a month on a 400k mortgage.

    That means no more Benz in the driveway.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    $3K is the lower bound of good…..$3,500 would be better, and $4,000 ideal….that said, have you included vested company match in 401(k)’s or any accruing pension style benefits?

    Also be clearer about your mortgages and financing of durables, including amortization……

    the big four O says:
    December 22, 2016 at 10:31 am
    ChiFi,
    Sorry, took a while to figure out budget… Saving 3K/mo

    chicagofinance says:
    December 21, 2016 at 2:00 pm
    not enough info to answer

    expenses? (or reverse engineer….how much are you saving?)

    I will consult via e-mail for up to 1 hour of my time at no charge….I have no ax to grind…..(please) donate to this website if you want to pay…..

    If you send your kids to private college in the years 2028-2038 or so, they must graduate in 4 years and expect to pay out about $800,000 cumulative in nominal dollars at those future dates.
    the big four O says:
    December 21, 2016 at 10:35 am
    Hey all,
    Looking for some financial advice.. Do you think I should consult with a CFP or just open a 529 and keep it moving? I’m about to turn 40 w/ 2 kids under five years old. Haven’t saved for their education thus far and I’m wondering if I’m on the right pace for my own retirement.

    no CC/other debt
    my income = 150k
    wifes income = 100k
    savings = 70k
    401k = 350k combined

    equity primary home = 200k
    equity in rental home = -10k

  41. Juice Box says:

    Lost – Yes lots of free money is out there. I just came back from bubble land California HELOCs are making a big comeback. You can expect your neighbors to all be driving luxury cars soon enough as they tap the invisible equity.

  42. JJ says:

    So have been off-line for one year but have to come back to wish folks a Merry X-mas.
    what is Chi-fi and Grim up to.

    Anyhow I have a big announcement. After 30 years on Wall Street 12-30-2016 is my last day. I am saying goodbye to my corner water view office!!

    So what next well what else does a loud mouth opinionated middle aged white male from NY do?

    Well the Monday after the inauguration I start in my new role down in DC. Bout time I straightened that mess out. Trump is I cant believe I am saying this is my new boss. I watched a few episodes of West Wing and Apprentice so good to go.

    I join a cast of characters. Look for me I guess on the next season of Real Househusbands of Potomac.

  43. JJ says:

    JUICEBOX DUDE WHAT UP!

  44. JJ says:

    or a starter wife

    D-FENS says:
    December 23, 2016 at 8:30 am
    Never buy a “starter” home. Moving is an expensive proposition.

  45. D-FENS says:

    All is right with the world. Peace on earth good will towards men.

  46. Xolepa says:

    JJ,
    I beat you by 11 months. I do have a retail business though, had it for 11 years now. Former company knew nothing about it. Doing quite well now as I went in f/t after the break, he he.

    God bless and Merry Christmas to all.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    jj: missed your input while you were away……here is some footage from a Trump rally from earlier this year….
    https://youtu.be/JmBPPV6AWwQ?t=1m41s

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Trump in Montreal…..
    https://youtu.be/qC-TRyGMkf8?t=3m24s

  49. No One says:

    Fabs, 11:15
    The Rockettes are employed to dance, not to write political essays.
    If a restaurant employed a waitress to bring people their dishes, and then one day said, “sorry boss, I refuse to serve Republicans today” I’d think that would be rightful grounds for firing. Or just so you can understand it better replace the word “Republicans” with “fags”.

  50. No One says:

    How do I know this is the real JJ?
    Tell a story about the 80s and about your rental place.

  51. Juice Box says:

    JJ – got that prime DC job on the President’s Advisory Council on Intern Relations?

    Merry Christmas you filthy animal….

  52. Juice Box says:

    re: How do I know this is the real JJ?

    He is as real as Santa Claus, you just need to believe.

  53. walking bye says:

    2017 Tax planing:
    According to Robert Willens, (Wall Streets go to tax man) here are some tax changes with a trumps/republican proposals

    1. House proposes to limit tax rate on small business aka-pass through income to 25% even though you might be in 33% bracket. -So the small business s corps/partnerships could effectively take no salary and pay 25% tax. Think lawyers, doctors, accountants. Trumps plan would be even better as it would reduce it to 15% on income that passes through the owner. Effectively a worker could pay more then an owner.
    2. tax brackets would go from top of 7 tiers with a top of 39% to 3 tiers with a top of 33%
    3. Max tax rate on investment income would be 16.5%
    4. Itemized deductions -goodbye, only charitable and mortgage would remain. Trump plan would retain ful array but cap it at $200k

    5. Anyone with long term cap gains may want to defer till next year

    6. any deductions (such as property tax payments on your rental ) you would want to accelerate this year.

    7. MLPs may convert to C-corp if corp tax rates come down to 20% or 15%. Either way they would become more attractive

    8. The run up in the stock market is being led by hope lower tax rates and deferred tax assets. Companies such as ATT would see write down of 57% and see $35 billion of net worth created. Apple has $32 billion in deferred tax liability it would see $18 billion under the trump plan.

    9. Tax exclusion of municipal bonds would be less valuable in a lower rate tax environment. That and interest rates hikes could cause issues for the muni bond market.

  54. No One says:

    Via autoerotic asphyxiation

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    I think Pumps will definitely die in his home, probably by his own hand.

  55. No One says:

    Walking Bye,
    As a partner I have to do estimated taxes. I’ve been advised by my accountant to pay as much estimated NJ state taxes within 2016 as possible.
    For #4, this would imply state and local taxes no longer deductible from federal
    But since almost all of my income is partnership, I’d still get a tax cut if the 25% rate applies to me.
    It’s also a good year to do bigger charitable donations

  56. Juice Box says:

    Going to dinner tonight with extended family at a country club tonight. We see them every other Christmas Holiday as we rotate between my family and my wife’s family. Based upon their reactions to the election on Facebook, I was thinking of wearing a safety pin on my lapel to test my theory that the hard core liberal family members do actually have an appreciation for irony that their symbol of subversive resistance means. Then again my wife might actually kill me if do.

  57. 3b says:

    Nah. I don’t think its J J!

  58. JJ says:

    Wait do I need a Hamptons story, Sandy story, getting laid story or just a crush valor story.

    I found a great Cougar bar in Bethesda if you guys want a meet up. or a meat market meet up.

    I also need some ryan mcfaddens and old 80s wall street stories.

    I will be living in a furnished apt up there Monday through Friday doing commute back to NY so semi single next few months. Cant wait till hit up those young PAC girls looking for donors,

  59. 3b says:

    Juice: she will give you the look! You know that look!! Although last couple of years my wife is of the opinion now if say what you want!! Everyone else does!!

  60. Essex says:

    2:27…sounds …dreamy

  61. walking bye says:

    No one, I have become accustomed to seeing nothing getting done in Washington, I can’t imagine any of these tax proposals getting off the ground. Yet the markets are pricing them in as if they are a done deal. What happens if Oct 2017 rolls in and mr market does not get any of these breaks, and yellen sticks it to trump with a rate hike?

  62. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    On the Trump Foundation.

    The precedent was set by the Clintons. So will be Trump’s misogyny.

    Same as the old boss.

  63. No One says:

    Maybe Bill C and Trump can have a competition where they pick up women like bowling balls and see how far they can roll them.

  64. jcer says:

    It figures that with mortgage rates skyrocketing, I’m now buying a house complete with truly ludicrous taxes in South Orange, the taxes are more than the mortgage payments. I’m kind of in agreement with Pumpkin, in that I don’t think housing will crash in this area, I see more stagnation, low inventory, and higher rates so if have that low rate mortgage inflation is going to make the people who bought homes from around 2009-2014 look good. In real terms the prices are actually low in certain parts of NNJ, I’m paying 650k less than the 2006 price.

    We almost pulled the trigger on one last year for 850k where the owner bought the home in 1992 for 480K and did significant improvements(Master suite in 2012, main upstairs bath in 2000, kitchen in 2004, 2000 bottle wine cellar in 2009, boilers and hvac replaced, etc literally hundreds of thousands in investment) since then, even factoring the ludicrous rise in property taxes, the monthly payments were $3600 vs $5000, using govt inflation figures the buying power of that house payment in 1992 is over $6k today and that figures not only increase in prices and taxes but also the fact that the property tax rate is higher today than it was in 1992. Housing isn’t an investment, it is a consumable where you can really only be prepared to nominally get your money back, had this person sold their home in 2006 or 2007 they would have gotten 1.25m for it. The issue is you cannot time the market and it’s cyclical, home prices are tied to a series of factors including the health of the local economy prevailing wages, interest rate climate and property taxes(some towns kept up with inflation, others the real property taxes today are less than they were 25 years ago…)….affordability dictates the number of potential buyers for a home and thus the price potential. My view on the Essex county market is that it will continue to improve given the excessive property values in Brooklyn, Manhattan if the train service is fixed with the addition of a new tunnel.

  65. Essex says:

    3:09 betcha the Clinton’s were great at the whole game and now anyone else in office is like…..GAME ON….never to be equalling the Clinton’s take obviously.

    HAPPY HOLIDAZE ALL….be happy.

  66. 3b says:

    Essex no disrespect but your comments are dreamy like at times.

  67. 3b says:

    jj if it really is you. What are you doing in cougar bar? They don’t want your raggedy old butt.

  68. JJ says:

    I am riding their butt not the other way around. I usually like 20 somethings to me 40 year olds are still cougars. Ok, maybe I will hit G-town bars instead find some girl with a daddy complex who needs a sugar daddy.

    I am like Santa I need some Ho, Ho, Ho, three Hos about right for me.

    3b says:
    December 23, 2016 at 4:56 pm
    jj if it really is you. What are you doing in cougar bar? They don’t want your raggedy old butt.

  69. Essex says:

    4:53 — Thanks…I…guess. Best to JJ — and the rest of you dirty animals.

  70. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    Merry Merry bitchez. My your holiday be filled with ho(s).

  71. Essex says:

    Thanks Obama

    Jobs: While economists, the administration and the Fed all trumpet “near full employment,” a stark reality intrudes: Most of the jobs created in the last decade have been temp or gig jobs, not permanent full-time work. It’s a huge problem.

    From 2005 to 2015, fully 94% of the 10 million net new jobs were either temporary or contract gigs, says a new study by economists Lawrence Katz of Harvard University and Alan Krueger at Princeton University. The share of Americans — mostly Millennials — now doing what the study’s authors call “alternative work” has risen from 10.7% to 15.8%.

    That wouldn’t be so bad if it was what workers wanted. But that’s not the case.

    “A large majority of temporary help agency employees on temporary jobs would prefer a permanent job and almost half of on-call workers would prefer a job with regularly scheduled hours,” the authors note.

    This, perhaps better than anything else, explains why the millennial generation seems so disconnected from the working world — and why, for instance, 40% of that generation still live with their parents, a 75-year high. They can’t afford to live on their own.

  72. grim says:

    Will be at the distillery tomorrow morning from 10am-2pm if anyone is interested in stopping by. Why shop when you can bourbon?

  73. Fabius Maximus says:

    This guy is channeling a few in here.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38423942

  74. Phoenix says:

    Grim, email me with an address.

  75. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    Buttocks [12:02];

    Are we great yet Gary?

    Not yet; 27 days and counting. But preparations must be made. Greatness isn’t built in a day — after all, it took almost 8 years to put us where we are now.

    BTW, your article is a joke. A rising tide lifts all boats, said JFK.

  76. Fabius Maximus says:

    Moose

    “after all, it took almost 8 years to put us where we are now.”

    So true, it was a long hard climb from where GWB left the country. And just like the roller-coaster, get ready to head back down.

  77. 3b says:

    Fab and what exactly did Obama do to get us out of the mess?

  78. Ben says:

    So true, it was a long hard climb from where GWB left the country. And just like the roller-coaster, get ready to head back down.

    Tends to happen when you generate a fake recovery via low interest rates.

  79. Fast Eddie says:

    Fabius,

    And just like the roller-coaster, get ready to head back down.

    Right. lol! Answer the question above; what did Obama do to get us out of the mess? He’s a narcissistic nightmare… I said it the other day. He’s ineffective, aloof, lazy, lazy, lazy and lacks motivation. He has zero visibility and is linear in his thinking. He’s still searching for a legacy and he’s on his way out the door. Get off the GWB thing. How many seats did the dems lose on the local, state and national level since big ears took office? What a sham and a con man and the dem party has become a f.ucking freak show!

  80. Fast Eddie says:

    Low interest rates and a GDP trickle. And the funny thing is, that big-eared f.uck had nothing to do with whatever improvement that did occur. Wait until you see the gates open up with Trump in office. You lefty supporters are pathetic, truly pathetic and blind in your thinking.

  81. Phoenix says:

    Where is the distillery?

  82. Essex says:

    11:23 Ok…Ok…get you ranting again. go take your meds and calm down. We’ll wait for the renaissance with open arms and open wallets. I’m ready…..

  83. 3b says:

    Fab I was no Bush fan. In fact I think he was a bigger disaster than Obama. He blew up the middle east for instance. Neither was qualified to be president. Obama was worse in his arrogance. He did not have eve one area of expertise. Doubt he ever even heard of Ukraine or Crimea. If trump turns out to be a disaster than so be it. He will be following in good foot steps. The democrats have lost their way with their b.s. identify politics.

  84. Essex says:

    Dems are done for a while. They had an opportunity. Some people think they blew it. OK fellas, it’s your turn. Let’s see what you got. Go USA!

  85. D-FENS says:

    First order of business…legalize weed

  86. Essex says:

    AMHERST — Marijuana may be legal in Massachusetts as of Thursday, but don’t try lighting up on the University of Massachusetts Amherst campus any time soon.

    The same day Massachusetts’ new marijuana legalization took effect, UMass Vice Chancellor for Student Affairs and Campus Life Enku Gelaye sent a letter to students saying weed is not allowed on campus.

    The email, which was sent at 1:20 p.m. Thursday, said that federal laws, including the Drug Free Schools and Communities Act and the Drug Free Workplace Act, require recipients of federal funds to prohibit marijuana use, possession and cultivation.

    “The use, possession and cultivation of marijuana is therefore not allowed in any university housing or on any other university property,” the email states.

    University staff will continue to enforce current rules prohibiting marijuana and anyone found using, possessing or growing it will be subject to disciplinary action, the email states.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    You all remind me of this!.

    What did O ever do for us?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso

  88. relo says:

    Fab,

    Comparing O to the Romans? Really? Well, maybe Nero.

  89. Essex says:

    “Before the great financial market crisis, housing was always a very liquid asset,” said Schomer. “If you lose your job in Ohio, you sell your house and move to California, because that’s where all the jobs are. Because of the housing crisis, so many people have been so underwater with their mortgage that they couldn’t do that.”

    Schomer said:

    “For the past six years, that typical mobility that we had in the US, where people would go where the jobs are, has been lost. At the same time, the jobs being created aren’t the kind of jobs that everyone can do. The people who lose their jobs in one industry can no longer just transfer it easily to another industry. There’s a cyclical element here, which is the housing story, and a structural element, that the skill sets are not easily transferable anymore.”
    Geographic mobility within the US has decreased over the past several decades. According to a report by Liberty Street Economics published in October, the percentage of the working-age population (those between 25 and 59) that moved to a different state in a given year stood at 1.5% in 2010, down from 3% in the 1980s.
    “The idea of moving across state borders for a job has been woven into the fabric of the American Dream,” the report said. “However, the image of the United States as a mobile nation has changed substantially over recent decades.”

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume, dreading tax season says:

    Merry Christmas to all from Big Sky, Montana.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, dreading tax season says:

    Jeez, I get busy and can’t be here that often and Rory is taking over.

    He’s like an invasive species. I think I’ll change his nickname to Stinkbug

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume, dreading tax season says:

    Essex,

    But I thought that the economy under Dear Leader has been going gangbusters?

    Doesn’t the latter quote from the minority leader go against of the administration’s message?

  93. Essex says:

    7:07 – without a doubt!

  94. 3b says:

    Merry Christmas all! And happy Hanukah!

  95. 3b says:

    Fab: answer the question.

  96. Anon E. Moose, saying 'Come back, JJ' says:

    Buttocks;

    it was a long hard climb from where GWB left the country

    What recovery?

    Median Household Income
    Workforce participation
    u-6 Unemployment

Comments are closed.