“Take a vacation on the house.”

From CNBC:

Rising home values aren’t enough to shake consumers’ memories of the financial crisis

Consumers still see value in buying and owning homes. Yet with memories of the recession still fresh in their minds, the recent lift in real estate prices hasn’t been enough to persuade them to spend against that growing value.

In a keynote speech at the National Retail Federation’s annual conference in New York on Tuesday, William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said this consumer hesitancy is one reason retail sales have been held back.

“People haven’t actually tapped that housing wealth,” Dudley said, noting that home values have increased 40 percent since 2012.
Dudley’s comments follow what was, on the surface, a solid holiday season. According to the National Retail Federation, retail sales rose 4 percent in November and December, outpacing the prior 10-year average of 2.5 percent growth.

But spending was choppy, and many traditional retailers struggled to capitalize on those gains. Along with a reluctance to spend money backed by the future value of their homes, a shift toward spending on experiences, a desire for deep discounts and an increased penchant for the web weighed on retailers.

Looking forward, Dudley is unsure whether the recent gains in consumer confidence, which hit a 15-year high last month, will translate into elevated levels of spending. However, as the recession moves further into the rearview mirror, he predicts housing equity will once again become a source of consumer spending.

“As time passes, people will forget the financial crisis,” Dudley said.

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending. Bookmark the permalink.

85 Responses to “Take a vacation on the house.”

  1. grim says:

    Dudley forgot the homeowners prayer, or maybe I put too much faith in it.

    Please Lord,
    Just One More Bubble
    I Promise Not To Piss It All Away This Time

  2. grim says:

    Republican will not win as Governor of NJ, it will not happen.

    Especially running under the slogan, “I will make New Jersey better.”

    Better? Just Better? Not Great? Nobody ever voted for someone who was just going to make things better.

    Guadagno stands no chance at all.

    http://www.burlingtoncountytimes.com/news/local/guadagno-kicks-off-bid-for-governor-promises-to-make-new/article_bcb58206-dcf4-11e6-b0ed-072add2eafa3.html

  3. grim says:

    I would have went with something a bit more broadly applicable.

    “Let’s get NJ back to work again.”

  4. D-FENS says:

    I’m kinda pulling for Joe Piscopo

  5. Anon E. Moose, proud owner of Silk City Bourbon ver 2.36/114 says:

    BWAHAHAHAHAH! [Homeowner’s prayer]

    “People haven’t actually tapped that housing wealth,” Dudley said, noting that home values have increased 40 percent since 2012.

    Oh really? Where? Is this just another egghead believing the statistics instead of the reality? As in: there is no such thing as a median priced house in NJ — it’s Newark and Paterson or Bergen and Rumson.

  6. God says:

    Here we go again. Lets not focus on growing wages to help the economy, we need another credit bubble. These guys are sick and really hate the American people. Home prices have barely budged in 12 years. People will not forget the 2008 collapse and children who grew up in it are scarred by impact on their families. Ragin’ 20s, my @$$. When we can have rates go above 4% without ‘end of days’ then Dud-head can talk about forgetting the collapse. We are still living in it after all.

  7. Juice Box says:

    Take a vacation on the house should be the title Grim.

  8. Ben says:

    Actually,

    I find NJ people respond best to negative comments.

    “Let’s stop the crap” woulda been my slogan.

  9. Still Underwater says:

    Guys… I bought a townhouse in Essex County in 2006 for $356k and lived in it until 2012 when I bought a home. For the past 4 years I’ve had the same renters in there and they’ve never had a late payment but I’m losing about $350/month. Although, it’s paying down the principal $800/mo (30 year mtg ARM adjusts every year currently 2.75%). The townhouse is currently worth $290k. I’m getting no tax benefit from it because AGI is over the limit.

    What should I do with this thing?

  10. Still Underwater says:

    Forgot to mention I owe 295k on the mortgage.

  11. Fast Eddie says:

    Ford: 700 Jobs to Start – As January began, Ford Motor Company went public to tell Donald Trump that they are ready to deal with the new administration and also noted that at least 700 new jobs were on the table with more to come as the year rolls onward.

    SAP SE: 400 Jobs – German business-software maker SAP SE is adding nearly 400 jobs to its Pittsburgh and suburban Philadelphia facilities, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

    Amazon.com: 100,000 Jobs – Amazon is eyeing a huge expansion starting this year and recently announced it intended to add up to 100,000 workers to its retail staff in new facilities across the nation. Many of these jobs will be in brand new fulfillment centers the online giant plans to begin building this year.

    Lockheed Martin: 1,800 Jobs – Aeronautics leader Lockheed Martin told President-elect Trump that it intends to hire over 1,800 new workers in the coming months. Indeed, Lockheed feels that its expansion will bring even more jobs indirectly. CEO Marillyn Hewson said of the new jobs, “when you think about the supply chain across 45 states in the U.S., it’s going to be thousands and thousands of jobs.”

    GM: 1,500 Jobs and $1 Billion Investment – General Motors said this month that it is looking to re-invest in factories in the U.S.A. and will add some 1,500 or more jobs to its roster of workers. The plans will include a one-billion-dollar plan to build new manufacturing lines in the U.S.

    Bayer AG: $8 Billion Investment – The Trump transition team is touting a commitment by German-based Bayer AG pharmaceutical company to invest an additional $8 billion in the U.S.A. in research and development in cooperation with Monsanto AG. The announcement came on the heels of a “very productive meeting” between the Trump team and Bayer CEO Werner Baumann and Monsanto chief Hugh Grant.

    Walmart: 10,000 Retail Jobs, 24,000 Construction Jobs – Retail giant Walmart is eyeing an expansion plan to build new stores that will eventually amount to some 10,000 new jobs in outlets across the country. But it will also mean up to 24,000 jobs for construction workers needed to build the new stores. Walmart intends to build at least 59 new stores in fiscal year 2017, according to a statement by the company.

    LKQ: 150 Jobs and New HQ in Tennessee – Publicly traded automotive company LKQ Corp is establishing a new headquarters in the Nashville, Tennessee, area. It is a sign that the company feels that the automotive industry in the U.S. is on track to grow in the age of Trump.

    Any questions?

  12. 3b says:

    People will forget what the financial crisis. Yes they will and when it blows up again they will be crying.

  13. Ben says:

    Still underwater…Stop paying but keep collecting rent. They’ll foreclose in 5 years and you’ll be drowning in cash.

  14. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    “Nigga Please” woulda been my slogan.

  15. Tywin says:

    Equity? Neighbor recently finished a $400K renovation, giving a nice value bump to the street and adjacent properties. Thanks neighbor!

  16. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    Ben is 100% right Underwater. If your cars are getting old, buy a new one before you wreck your credit. Though you probably won’t need credit since you will be rolling in cash. How secure is your job? If you work for the government, I would do this in a minute. Private sector? Only if you are self-employed. Companies check credit sometimes now, when hiring. Wow, I wish I was in your position. This fool made the mistake of putting 20% down. Never again. Will always pay the minimum downpayment that does not generate any penalties.

  17. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    Running out of time to close Gitmo.

  18. chicagofinance says:

    not enough info….. do you want to be a landlord? was that your long-term intention?

    you need the market value from the day that you moved out…..that becomes your tax basis in the business…….

    what do you do for a living? will impaired credit affect your ability to your job? might an incident become a public record?

    Still Underwater says:
    January 18, 2017 at 9:24 am
    Guys… I bought a townhouse in Essex County in 2006 for $356k and lived in it until 2012 when I bought a home. For the past 4 years I’ve had the same renters in there and they’ve never had a late payment but I’m losing about $350/month. Although, it’s paying down the principal $800/mo (30 year mtg ARM adjusts every year currently 2.75%). The townhouse is currently worth $290k. I’m getting no tax benefit from it because AGI is over the limit.

    What should I do with this thing?
    Still Underwater says:
    January 18, 2017 at 9:26 am
    Forgot to mention I owe 295k on the mortgage.

  19. God says:

    Still,

    Two words – Jewish lightning.

  20. D-FENS says:

    Will they finally fix the Abbott funding issue?…..for the children?

    http://www.njspotlight.com/stories/17/01/16/public-hearings-as-many-as-9-planned-on-school-funding/

    “hurting both children and taxpayers”

    “start the hard work of finding a solution that’s fair to taxpayers, school districts, and children”

  21. Clotpoll says:

    Gary 9:34-

    Virtually no listed company has revised projected EPS upward for 2017.

  22. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    “Two words – Jewish lightning.” How could I forget?

  23. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    Fake Clotpoll…you are annoying. The real Clot might have said…

    Destruction straight ahead. Invest in headstones and coffins. Cat food too.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Smoke and mirrors…

  25. Juice Box says:

    Sell and take your loss.

    Keep and take your loss.

    Your Call.

  26. No One says:

    Clot wouldn’t talk about EPS estimates. So fake.
    Only slightly less fake than God posting, as the real God would be telling people to read Joseph Smith’s book.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYAhlz7rnPU

  27. D-FENS says:

    What are these EPS you speak of? Can I use them to pay my mortgage bill?

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Virtually no listed company has revised projected EPS upward for 2017.

    Yet.

  29. chicagofinance says:

    Look at Biden stumbling to use big words……he is so stupid that he has no cranial function beyond an autonomic nervous system…….
    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/18/joe-bidens-final-speech-at-davos.html

  30. STEAMturd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    Did he say his chopper was shot down on the way to Davos?

  31. Essex says:

    Teachers should carry guns in case they are attacked by bears.

  32. Essex says:

    Are we greeeeat or wut….?

    President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for education secretary told lawmakers at her confirmation hearing that guns might have a place in schools due to the threat from grizzly bears.

    Billionaire philanthropist Betsy DeVos faced tough questions during Tuesday’s session, refused to rule out removing funding public schools if appointed and admitted her family may have made donations to the Republican Party totalling $200 million.

    Democrat Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who has been vocal on gun control in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre, asked DeVos if she thought firearms had any place in or around schools.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    Essex,

    The dolt is on his way out the door. Deal with it. He s.ucked and wasted eight years on transgender identity social disorders and acting like a 4 year old pointing fingers while deeply dividing a nation on race, status and ideology. There was no reason for debate; it was his f.ucked up way or no way. Now, it’s Trump’s way and I hope he rams every f.ucking thing up liberals’ @ssh0les so far that it comes out of their mouth.

  34. Essex says:

    deal with what? i just calls em as i see em.

  35. Essex says:

    I’m just hoping Trump’s ADD doesn’t kick in at the wrong time and he does something truly stupid/horrible/destructive……

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Oblamma’s greatest accomplishment: Ruining the democrat party.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, fighting with autocorrect says:

    With the inauguration of The Donald, New York will surpass Virginia and Massachusetts as the state that has produced more US presidents than any other.

    No wonder this nation is fcuked

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, Bear Lover says:

    “Essex says:
    January 18, 2017 at 1:38 pm

    Teachers should carry guns in case they are attacked by bears.”

    Don’t poke the bear.

  39. D-FENS says:

    260-pound bear tranquilized at elementary school (video)

    http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2016/03/23/82191876/

  40. Essex says:

    2:15 You are completely unhinged.

  41. Essex says:

    I’ve got no issue fellas, but then we are Double Income No Worries.

  42. D-FENS says:

    Fish and wildlife had to dart a black bear in my neighborhood about 8 years ago. Chased it all over and finally took it down in a field behind the high school.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Inquiring minds demand to know: How high is too high for a pile of chicken poop? The answer: Eight feet. As farmers stockpile the winter waste for use as fertilizer for the spring planting, poultry experts warn the dung should not exceed seven feet. Otherwise, it can explode. We know that for an indisputable fact, after a pile of chicken crap combusted in western Arkansas, demolishing a nearby mobile home. (Editor’s Note: Why are people living next to a mountain of bird turd in Western Arkansas?) The fire “hit the sweet spot,” explained Karl VanDevender, a self-proclaimed feces expert at the University of Arkansas, describing, in detail, how the mix of moisture, texture and decomposition can ignite a pile of poo.

  44. Still Underwaater says:

    You are saying if I stop paying and continue to rent it out in a few years when the bank forecloses they won’t come after me for the money? I don’t care about the credit hit…. I’ve got plenty of cards with high credit limits and my car is new.

  45. Essex says:

    Russian Pootin Best Pootin.

  46. Anon E. Moose, proud owner of Silk City Bourbon ver 2.36/114 says:

    Still [17:22];

    You are saying if I stop paying and continue to rent it out in a few years when the bank forecloses they won’t come after me for the money? I don’t care about the credit hit…. I’ve got plenty of cards with high credit limits and my car is new.

    The bank will first drag its feet on foreclosing in the first place. If there is no equity in the property, the bank has nothing to gain by foreclosing — if it even (ever) goes to Sheriff’s sale the bank itself will end up bidding the upset price to protect its position. By foreclosing, the bank has to realize he loss in value — it doesn’t want to do that, which is why certain properties have languished for up to five years or more without payment. That is why STEAM says its a fool mistake to put 20% down — any substantial equity in the property makes you a ready target for FK if the payments default. The bank can be confident that the auction bids will make them whole.

    BTW, its one thing to not care about the credit hit; but your current limits are not etched in stone. A friend was financing his business on credit cards in the late aughts, using about 50% of his limit, when the bank brought the ceiling down on his head and halved his limit. No late payments, no other defaults, they were just protecting their balance sheet. To add insult to injury, every (min) payment he made, they brought his limit down by that much more.

  47. Essex says:

    How many days has it been
    Since I was born
    How many days until I die
    Do I know any ways
    That I can make you laugh
    Or do I only know how to make you cry
    When the baby looks around him
    It’s such a sight to see
    He shares a simple secret
    With the wise man
    He’s a stranger in a strange land
    Just a stranger in a strange land
    Tell me why
    He’s a stranger in a strange land
    Just a stranger in a strange land

  48. Great stuff from this part of the internet. Again, thank you for this blog.

  49. That is quite surprising… I have never heard of that before reading your post!
    It makes me quite puzzled and angry too!

  50. CNN Headline says:

    Jewish child to be first person deported under Trump administration.

    The D will have his port removed sometime next week. Our treatment regiment is nearing completion. Last radiation dose is tomorrow morning.

  51. Still Underwaater says:

    I guess it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me…. if I let it go into foreclosure and the process takes 3 years I will have collected 79,000$ rent. Now if I just continue to pay the mortgage on time and the market value increases 6% each year the result will be the same without the credit hit or the worry of the bank coming after me.

  52. D-FENS says:

    Sucks dude. I feel ya. Bought my place in 2006 too.

  53. D-FENS says:

    you can’t afford to just sell it and take the loss?

  54. chicagofinance says:

    It shouldn’t …… a stupid idea….. if you are fcuked it is one thing; damage control….but if you are a normal person, then you don’t screw around with these demented lawyer-ly styled moves…..

    bottom line…..if you want to be a landlord …keep it…..if you never intended to be a real estate investor, then sell it…..

    “The way forward isn’t always directly ahead”…..just made that up…..

    Still Underwaater says:
    January 19, 2017 at 11:00 am
    I guess it just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me…. if I let it go into foreclosure and the process takes 3 years I will have collected 79,000$ rent. Now if I just continue to pay the mortgage on time and the market value increases 6% each year the result will be the same without the credit hit or the worry of the bank coming after me.

  55. abeiz says:

    Still Underwater,

    Family friend did just this for….six years before proceedings were started? And then, he dragged out for another year. A lawyer boasted he could tie it up in paperwork even longer for a relatively small fee. As the back payments, fees, taxes piled up his intention to salvage it as a rental dwindled.

    You’ll be pleased to know that you can stop paying your RE taxes as well. The bank will auto pay those on your – well, soon to be their behalf – to protect their interest in the property.

    An arguably unethical and unfair practice; yes. However, if you have to go down with the ship this is by far the most lucrative way of dong it.

    Again, it seems like you are not committed to LL status. Can’t you just take the one-time hit and be rid of it?

  56. abeiz says:

    Does your calculation – the one where you’re $350 under – factor in property taxes paid on the property as well as income taxes on the rental income you collect?

  57. D-FENS says:

    Sell it…cut it loose and move on with your life.

  58. D-FENS says:

    Chi’s advice carries the most weight. I suspect he knows a thing or two about personal finance.

  59. jcer says:

    Do a short sale. If you want to sell stop paying your mortgage, taxes and condo fees, claim financial hardship, list property as a short sale, bank will likely approve based on the numbers you think you can get in a sale a 275k should get it closed, bank pays all closing costs you get to just walk away and will get to pocket the rent in the meantime until the sale closes. Find a lawyer who specializes in these transactions you’ll likely be able to walk away with a credit hit but otherwise entirely whole.

  60. Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary's umbilical stump says:

    “Chi’s advice carries the most weight. I suspect he knows a thing or two about personal finance.”

    Heck…He’s probably the renter.

  61. Ben says:

    It should be noted that my strategic default suggestion was a joke. I have seen people win big with it though.

  62. Comrade Nom Deplume, looking forward to the AFC Championship. Again. says:
  63. chicagofinance says:

    A Cornell professor just asked me to attend a presentation of PhD research on personal finance topics……I am pretty stoked…..now I get to hang with clot at the injection houses….I’ve never mainlined Knob Creek before….

    Steamturd thinking about the remains of Hillary’s umbilical stump says:
    January 19, 2017 at 1:40 pm
    “Chi’s advice carries the most weight. I suspect he knows a thing or two about personal finance.” Heck…He’s probably the renter.

  64. Essex says:

    3:52 He probably just wants to seduce you .

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, Who doesn't care when you got your bottle. says:

    Joe Piscopo on Fox Biz. He sounds very gubernatorial. Hmmmm

  66. Comrade Nom Deplume, Who doesn't care when you got your bottle. says:

    Okay, now he’s being comedic in addition to gubernatorial

  67. Still Underwaater says:

    abeiz,
    yeah, it includes property tax… there isn’t any income to tax since it’s a loss every month

    When the bank sees my income there’s no way they would go for a short sale. Sounds like the options are sell now and take the hit or hold and be a LL for a while (5-10 years?) although, my ARM rate could be who knows what by then.

  68. Clotpoll says:

    no one 11:20 am-

    e-mail me if you don’t think i’m real, you fcuk

  69. Clotpoll says:

    off to france for a few weeks. wine work. enjoy fell@ting your new president.

  70. Clotpoll says:

    gary 12:22-

    it’s 2017. time’s kinda up on that one.

    maybe a few companies revise q3, q4 upwards…but absent an outbreak of stalinist hopium smoking in corporate boardrooms, why would anyone revise upwards in this environment? if anything, drumpf pressure on continuing to base large companies in murica is a drag on profitability, not an enhancement.

  71. Clotpoll says:

    even wahoos like harry dent have started back with the deflationary implosion of everything war chant again

  72. Clotpoll says:

    underwater 5:22-

    even in the heyday of the housing collapse, i never once saw a nj lender attempt to obtain a deficiency judgment against a defaulting borrower.

  73. Essex says:

    Trump cost me big bucks again, His effect on pharma us chilling. He rattles off tweets sends stocks falling.

  74. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I have no idea how my new big screen in my new rented SFH got tuned to MSNBC tonight, but it seems like Rachel Maddow has a huge bolus of laundry up her cunt.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    New Jersey and you…perfect together. Codependent f.ucks.

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