When will home price growth start to slow?

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic: Home prices rose 7% in February

Home prices increased in February and will only continue that upward trend, according to the Home Price Index and HPI Forecast from CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider.

Home prices increased 7% from February 2016 and increased 1% from January to February, according to the index.

“Home prices and rents have risen the most in local markets with high demand and limited supply, such as Seattle, Portland and Denver,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said. “The rise in housing costs has been largest for lower-tier-priced homes.”

“For example, from December to February in Seattle, the CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 12% and our single-family rent index rose 6% for all price tiers compared with the same period a year earlier,” Nothaft said. “However, when looking at only lower-cost homes in Seattle, the price increase was 13% and the rent increase was 7%.”

And home prices will continue going up a forecasted 4.7% on a year-over-year basis and 0.4% month-over-month, according to the HPI.

“Home prices continue to grow at a torrid pace so far in 2017 and these gains are likely to continue well into the future,” CoreLogic President and CEO Frank Martell said. “Home prices are at peak levels in many major markets and the appreciation is being driven by a number of dynamics—high demand, stronger employment, lean supplies and affordability—that will continue to play out in the coming years.”

“The CoreLogic Home Price Index is projecting an additional 5% rise in home prices nationally over the next 12 months,” Martell said.

And these rising home prices are increasing homeowner equity, causing a new rise in home equity lines of credit lead by the Millennial generation.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

105 Responses to When will home price growth start to slow?

  1. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @nytimes

    Fox News was facing a major advertising revolt
    after sexual harassment claims against
    Bill O’Reilly

  2. Bystander says:

    You could at least say good morning..or are you a sour puzz..y? :-)

  3. XRumerTest says:

    Hello. And Bye.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Grim – unmod my post please.. Fannie Freddie $10 Billion payment possibly delayed by Mel Watt?

    link

    http://www.builderonline.com/money/mortgage-finance/fannie-and-freddie-make-planned-10-billion-payment_c

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Bill O’Reilly…. this is what a meek and unwanted follower defines as getting a leg up or pushing back the opposition. As if Bill O’Reilly matters. It’s hilarious how void that side has become. As if this justifies themselves. As if they think they’re defeating the other side. Your holding onto nothing while the other side continues to trample you. It’s laughable and Trump is having a ball making a mockery of you. By the way, Gorsuch is going to be appointed… and then they’ll be another one within the next few years. And isn’t it beautiful how Trump is dismantling the Obama administration piece by piece? lol!! Enjoy your day.

  6. Juice Box says:

    I am shocked shocked I tell you to hear se*xu*al harassment occurs in the workplace.

  7. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    This is what happens when you get your political advice from a comedian who married a hooker and your party still believes that it’s okay to stay married to so one can ride the coattails of a Don Quixote whose sexual weapon of choice was a Macanudo.

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume, Useful Idiot says:

    TRUMP, Bitchez

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/us-markets.html

    I must say, I am liking this guy far more than I thought I ever would. If he would just lay off the damn tweeting.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In my opinion, this has to be the new norm spawned from the impact of globalization. Analysts keep looking at these housing markets and trying to understand it based on past markets which leads them to start calling for crashes. They need to understand that past markets have never been impacted from foreign investors searching endlessly for a place to put their money.

    These investors are the product of huge income inequality in the world economy. It’s a complete paradox….. Ton of money at the top with nowhere to put it to work due to the simple fact that the huge concentration of capital at the top has been at the expense of the bottom in the form of lower wages and higher profits, which has destroyed the ability of the consumer to produce demand. The consumers want to consume, but doesn’t have the means to consume because of the huge glut of capital concentrated at the top of a capitalist based economy not being put to work in the economy in an efficient way (instead it’s hoarded and just drives up asset prices on the rest of the people).

    So you end up with housing markets with prices where the avg individual can not afford (yes, goes against basic economic theory). The market doesn’t crash because it’s supported by an endless line of ultra rich that have no where else to put their money to work.

    Imo, this is the breakdown of what is going on in our economy in trying to make sense of it all. Globalization led to a huge concentration of wealth and these are the effects of it.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-05/toronto-home-prices-jump-33-in-march-as-market-tightens

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Actually some pretty good advice I found in the comment section.

    “The cost of transferring ownership of a house is very expensive: Down payment, inspections, real estate commissions (paid for by seller, so is thus built into their ask price), moving, painting, furniture, etc. You should only buy a house if you’re willing to stay at least 3-4 years minimum.

    (Disclaimer: if you live in NYC, San Fran, Vancouver, or some other hot market, my advice below does not apply. For those markets I don’t see any good answer to your dilemma other than moving to an area that isn’t overheated).

    But if you plan on staying in your current area for this long, and could find other employment if you lost your current job, then I see no reason not to buy. Even in Bubble 1.0 prices didn’t drop all that much, and it was only for a short period of time before they started to rebound. If you plan on staying in your house for at least 10 years then you’ll be in it long enough to ride out a drop and still end up with appreciation. In the meantime you’ll be building equity.

    If you sit around waiting for a major shock to occur before buying you’ll probably be too scared to buy when the time comes, thinking that the “other shoe is about to drop.” It’s hard enough to time the stock market, and you want to try to time the purchase of the most emotional of all purchases? You’re going to fail at this. Having bought and sold two different houses in my life I know how much regret and angst can occur, and I consider myself to be a very stoic, reasonable person. Don’t try to play this game with houses. Speculate with something else.

    Put 20% down, mortgage payment no more than 25% of income, buy in a good school district neighbored by other good school districts (in other words, not on the border of a neighborhood that may go south), and don’t pour money into any major renovations. You follow that advice and stay in the house for at least 10 years you really can’t go wrong.

    If you think we’re headed for great depression 2.0 or worse then buy a small house on a large piece of land in the middle of nowhere with access to fresh water, get your solar/wind off the grid thing going, farm your own food, and live like a wacko.”

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/16/sell-now-multifamily-rentals-san-francisco-new-york-city-most-expensive-markets-in-the-world/

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    O’Reilly – He had a radio show about 15 years ago, coincident with his TV show. The radio show was *so* much better than his TV show (I never watched his TV show with any regularity until last year). Anyway, I think his “big” problem was from the early 2000’s when he portrayed a scene to a co-worker that would occur if they went away for a weekend. IIRC, it involved wine, a shower, and a louffa. What we call “harassment” now is on a spectrum inversely proportional to time. By today’s standards Rutgers would have expelled 50% of each freshman class in the 1970’s and the same proportion of individuals would have lost their jobs in the 1980’s, and I’m talking both (all three?, four?) genders.

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, non-O’Reilly watchers like me moving into the fold are probably why they are trying to take down the ratings leader. I forget if it was Tapper or Cuomo (Cuomo, I think) within the last two years who crashed his muscle car drunk, showing off for Don Lemon in the Hamptons (then driving off), and that never came up in the news did it? Did you know that Don Lemon is a really diminutive little f.uck? He’s tiny.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Ex Pat – it was a $9 million dollar loofah.

  14. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Buy quality and you’ll never be disappointed with your purchase;-)

    Ex Pat – it was a $9 million dollar loofah.

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. Just kind of a “tease business”, he wouldn’t actually grab that puzzy.

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/file/oreilly-suit-turns-10?page=15

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I can’t believe how lucid and static my memory is – especially for things that won’t make me money;-)

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Diplomacy is the art of saying, “Nice doggie”…until you can find a rock.

    -Will Rogers

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Barry Manilow is gay!

    Filed 2 places:
    1. Who didn’t know
    2. Who ever cared

    http://people.com/music/barry-manilow-hid-sexuality-thought-being-gay-would-disappoint-fans/

  19. D-FENS says:

    Oh now THATS what I’m talking about. People often file property tax appeals to lower their own taxes…

    But did you know you can file an appeal asking to have someone’s taxes raised? Sweet Sweet justice.

    Jersey City woman files tax appeal against mayor

    http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2017/04/jersey_city_woman_files_tax_appeal_against_mayor.html#incart_river_mobile_home_pop

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Slack keeps getting tighter and tighter.

    Stocks are flying high after good news about the job market – Business Insider
    https://apple.news/AcLUWfcrUQYuv1Hse-Z3IBg

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:

    More NJers in the news

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/04/05/black-woman-sick-fancy-white-people-allegedly-attacks-couple-at-virginia-gas-station.html

    At least she was smart about her target: interstate travelers from ultra liberal Massachusetts. Pretty much a guarantee that she wouldn’t get a cap busted in her skull.

    Newark types: we will bust a cap in your azz here in Pennzy.

  22. Juice Box says:

    No one – watch his youtube talks
    He would get his head lopped off if he steps foot in Saudi Arabia, did they ever allow his to go to Mecca?

  23. D-FENS says:

    Wow. You are so gansta. We are all so impressed.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:
    April 5, 2017 at 11:34 pm
    More NJers in the news

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/04/05/black-woman-sick-fancy-white-people-allegedly-attacks-couple-at-virginia-gas-station.html

    At least she was smart about her target: interstate travelers from ultra liberal Massachusetts. Pretty much a guarantee that she wouldn’t get a cap busted in her skull.

    Newark types: we will bust a cap in your azz here in Pennzy.

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What a waste of a brilliant mind taking on an issue that does no good for anyone. With all the problems facing human civilization, this guy focuses on some buzz word movement focused on dividing the members of our society as opposed to bringing them together. Bravo!! This is exactly where we need our nation’s best and brightest to focus on.

    No One says:
    April 6, 2017 at 2:36 am
    NJ’s best and brightest kids. What a little prick this kid is.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/04/muslim-teenager-gets-stanford-university-place-writing-blacklivesmatter/

  25. Bystander says:

    So, per FoxNews, Bannon tried to quit the Trump WH after he was removed from NSC. Just unprecedented sh!t show going on. I just don’t see how executive office will accomplish anything going forward. Maybe that it is for the best.

  26. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    I think Trump is learning that loyalty will only take you so far. Bannon got him to the presidency, but propoganda and actually governing are two different things. Trump is not stupid. I’m not surprised he’s starting to dump the weak parts of his administration. Though, it’s tough to drain the swamp when the left complains about every appointment that is not a lifetime politician.

  27. Raymond Reddington says:

    Pumps,
    Did you ever hear the term divide and conquer?

  28. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander,

    I can’t wait until the 2018 elections when we have mega majorities in the House and Senate and another SC nominee is named. CNN and MSNBC will be in flames! That’ll make it 6 to 3! Geezus, the snowflake crowd will be going ballistic! Who are the democrat’s constituents these days besides a band of gypsies, layabouts and wanderers?

  29. Ghost of Essex says:

    5 Days on the Market. $25k over list price. Color me surprised. Color me Orange. Color me SOLD.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s exactly what it looks like to me. Take a brilliant mind and make him focus on issues that will in the end just hold him back from his true capabilities. Nothing like filling a brilliant mind with hate and resentment……just criminal.

    Raymond Reddington says:
    April 6, 2017 at 11:56 am
    Pumps,
    Did you ever hear the term divide and conquer?

  31. EncuncKep says:

    With a bit of work plus some patience, your website will quickly show up from search results – and you will probably get traffic. Either you’re using mobile phone or PC or laptop, you can get your hands on Angry Birds. Either start developing apps that run on all these latest Android tablets or hire an Android application developer that do tablet app development for you. The Windows App Market is booming as well, it just hit 100,000 apps recently.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    lol….good stuff!

    The market in northeast nj is in the beginning stages of the upward swing of the housing cycle. A couple of people I know have sold their homes for more than they were asking for. This is how it begins. This cycle might be the longest and most explosive boom period to date. Could last till 2030 based on the demographic spending patterns.

    Ghost of Essex says:
    April 6, 2017 at 12:32 pm
    5 Days on the Market. $25k over list price. Color me surprised. Color me Orange. Color me SOLD.

  33. 30 year realtor says:

    Everyday I am nose to the grindstone establishing values on properties to bid on at sheriff sales all over North Jersey. One thing is very clear to me! Pumpkin is talking out of his a$$.

    Funny markets all over the map. Even the strong areas have very limited appreciation over the last 24 months. Very important to understand that I am not saying the market is bad or that we are in danger of serious depreciation. Sales volume is ahead of the prior year for years on end. Mortgage rates are still low. Supply of listings is constricted. Where is the appreciation?

  34. 30 year realtor says:

    Talk about funny markets without appreciation and a very weak high end and one town stands out…WAYNE!

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    30 year,

    I did not state every house was going for over ask. I did not say the market is hot. I stated that it is starting to show signs of life. A few people I know have sold their house for above asking. For me, that’s the beginning sign of market improvement in the area. Take if for what it’s worth. Maybe they priced it a little below market, not sure, but it’s always a sign when people are willing to pay the ask or above ask. When the market is at the bottom, NO ONE WILL EVEN PAY 10% below ask, they just expect total deals. When every market participant is not low balling, and instead stepping up to the plate and paying ask or above ask, the writing is on the wall. The tide is turning.

  36. 3b says:

    Prices don’t appear to be rising n Brigadoon. Some pretty decent houses out there in the low 400’s. Taxes of course are ugly!

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    As for Wayne, I think it’s a buying opportunity. Same thing with places like Fairfield. They didn’t see much appreciation the past 5 years, but towns like Wayne and Fairfield should start to see the growth. As the top markets appreciated in north jersey over the past 5 years, they made places like Fairfield and Wayne look like complete bargains. So if you are looking for appreciation, you shouldn’t buy in the towns that already had a run up, you should seek towns that have the potential to move up. Plus towns like Fairfield and Wayne are in that nice spot where they are not the top markets, but absorb the middle class trying to move up. Recipe for some nice appreciation in the next 10 years.

    I’m not going against you. I’m not saying you are wrong, I’m just stating my opinion on the market.

  38. Fast Eddie says:

    Pumpkin is talking out of his a$$.

    LOL!!

  39. 3b says:

    Pumps: I value the opinion of someone whose livelihood is based on buying and selling in the north jersey real estate market who is in it everyday as opposed to yours which is just based on the fact that you own a house and therefore it must be worth more than you paid for it. As such it would mean in your mind it was a good investment. 30 year is giving an analysis of a market he is in everyday and basing his analysis and judgement on what he is seeing on the ground not on whether or not it impacts him positively or not.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    Have I been wrong with any of my long term calls on the economy? No one wanted to believe it when I was calling it back in 2012/13. Now that it happened exactly the year I stated it would, people are selling me short. Now they take the position that it was inevitable (like I tried to point out to them over and over back in 2012/13, but was told this time is different….that wage inflation is done along with the housing market). Funny, now my calls were inevitable and a broken clock is right twice a day; way to take a dump on my amazing calls in which I stated SPECIFIC years it would happen. So I love how people refuse to acknowledge my calls and continue to give me no respect. I guess truth hurts and they just can’t accept that a 30 something millennial told them so. Love to rip on millennials, yet here we are with a millennial providing valuable insight.

    So 3b, I think you need to understand that 30 year is an expert at current pricing. He is damn good at being a realtor, but he is not analyzing the market long term based on economic data. I am. Understand this. My approach has always been based on demographic spending patterns and business cycles. This is what I use to peak into the future and make the economic calls that I do. You think I’m making these calls based on gut feelings or opinion? I’m basing it on data that paints a story of the economy. If a war or major disaster comes, throw my analysis away, but if no negative disasters distort the economic data, this boom is coming.

  41. Yo! says:

    30 year – in NJ the appreciation is in Hoboken and Jersey City, especially condos. In the New York City metro, condo prices are 16% above the previous peak in 2006. In some Jersey City neighborhoods, condo prices are up 40%.

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  43. Lurks McGee says:

    Don’t worry Pumpkin. As a longtime lurker, I recognized it would result like this. Cognitive dissonance won’t allow people to admit their faulty thinking – let alone give people their due.

    I mainly agreed with your point because of ‘Salmon Theory’. Born, swim downstream (rent) ready to mate and swim upstream (household formation). That cycle doesn’t end.

  44. Bagholder says:

    ‘What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict? Obama needs Congressional approval.’

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps will say higher home prices in Wayne, NJ.

    What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict?

  46. nwnj3 says:

    Trump has been coopted by the neocons completely. In hindsight, Bannon departing from the NSC foretold something.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thanks and couldn’t agree more with the cycle never coming to an end. Nice touch with the use of salmon.

    Lurks McGee says:
    April 6, 2017 at 8:17 pm
    Don’t worry Pumpkin. As a longtime lurker, I recognized it would result like this. Cognitive dissonance won’t allow people to admit their faulty thinking – let alone give people their due.

    I mainly agreed with your point because of ‘Salmon Theory’. Born, swim downstream (rent) ready to mate and swim upstream (household formation). That cycle doesn’t end.

  48. Stephen.Hawking says:

    I am a long time lurker as well and this pumpkin chap has some interesting ideas. By deduction, I have concluded that he has a big black hole between his ears which I am interested in studying further.

  49. Juice Box says:

    We bombed a mosque in Syria a few weeks ago while 300 terrorist were praying. Only got 42 of them. We know how to defeat them, drones swarm in and light the place up with hellfire missiles during prayer time, follow that up with a double tap or two from F-16’s dropping jdams.

    Go long Boeing.

  50. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    “We know how to defeat them, drones swarm in and light the place up with hellfire missiles during prayer time.”

    We took that page directly out of their playbook. See Yom Kippur war.

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumpkin’s mind – delusional thoughts check in, they don’t check out.

  52. 3b says:

    I think pumps and lurker is one and the same,

  53. 3b says:

    Some interesting job numbers today and revisions etc one take away still not seeing that much anticipated wage inflation!

  54. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    I’m still waiting for mine.

  55. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Odd. The same Russia, that supposedly put Trump in office, is bad mouthing Trump over the Syria missile attack. Hmmmm.

  56. Stephen.Hawking says:

    You guys just have not presented to your boss, the economic data showing imminent upswing in our business cycle which obviously indicates wage inflation. Surely, he or she will give big raise once they see it…or perhaps laugh in your face while thinking “psycho” in their head.

  57. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    I will have the great Plumpkin negotiate for me.

  58. Juice Box says:

    re: “You guys just have not presented to your boss”

    Au contraire, I told my Boss a very smart FA told me I deserve a 50k raise so I can go out and buy a new home on a double yellow lined street in a town that does not even have a train to the city where they had the best damm mall in America.

    https://www.yelp.com/biz/wayne-hills-mall-wayne

  59. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    The Wayne Hills Mall?

  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you want a raise and your boss isn’t giving it to you, jump ship to another company, or up your skills. Obviously, your boss isn’t going to just give you a raise. He will milk you for as long as he/she can. This type of behavior is what holds back wage inflation…..people too afraid to jump ship or ask for a raise. Just sit content like a good little worker and keep your boss happy.

    Stephen.Hawking says:
    April 7, 2017 at 10:03 am
    You guys just have not presented to your boss, the economic data showing imminent upswing in our business cycle which obviously indicates wage inflation. Surely, he or she will give big raise once they see it…or perhaps laugh in your face while thinking “psycho” in their head.

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wayne does have a train. It also has bus access in multiple locations.

    Like I said, it’s currently a great bargain based on price, school system, type people who make up the town, and access to major highways and public transportation system. It also has access to a wide range of shopping options. When rt 3/46 interchange is modernized, wayne and the towns that feed off that interchange will become even more attractive with a shorter commute to the city.

    Juice Box says:
    April 7, 2017 at 10:18 am
    re: “You guys just have not presented to your boss”

    Au contraire, I told my Boss a very smart FA told me I deserve a 50k raise so I can go out and buy a new home on a double yellow lined street in a town that does not even have a train to the city where they had the best damm mall in America.

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    You guys still don’t get that (S)he is a troll, right?

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This guy sounds like me.

    ““It’s not happened yet, so nobody wants to believe it,” Feldman said. “I can understand that. I’m trying to tell people that, look, demographics are already at a very different point now.””

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/nevermind-japanese-labor-unions-demographics-does-the-talking

  64. Bagholder says:

    ‘Trump has been coopted by the neocons completely. In hindsight, Bannon departing from the NSC foretold something.’

    Maybe he concludes the base is a given, tries to go the W route.

    ‘Odd. The same Russia, that supposedly put Trump in office, is bad mouthing Trump over the Syria missile attack. Hmmmm.’

    No it seems fine, he called first. Bombed an empty airfield.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Never mind Japan’s upcoming annual spring wage talks, which are expected to see labor unions take another drubbing from the country’s biggest companies.

    Demographics may provide the pay raises needed to help invigorate Japan’s economy and nudge price gains toward the central bank’s 2 percent inflation goal by the end of next year, according to Robert Feldman, a senior adviser at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo.

    “Everything I’m hearing on spring wage negotiations suggests that it won’t be all that strong,” Feldman said in an interview, referring to pay hikes. “I don’t really care.”

    Rising hourly pay, though, driven by a labor shortage, tells a “very interesting” story, he said. If not for an unheralded increase in the number of foreign workers, the pressure would be even greater, according to Feldman.”

  66. Fast Eddie says:

    No it seems fine, he called first. Bombed an empty airfield.

    Sure he did, and Hillary is the president.

  67. Bagholder says:

    ““Russian forces were notified in advance of the strike using the established deconfliction line,” said Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis in an official statement. “U.S. military planners took precautions to minimize risk to Russian or Syrian personnel located at the airfield.””

    Thanks Eddie.

  68. Comrade Nom Deplorable, The G.O.A.T. says:

    ” D-FENS says:
    April 6, 2017 at 8:12 am

    Wow. You are so gansta. We are all so impressed.”

    Damn straight. Not that we see that sort of thing in ChesCo much, but in Philly, the mere sight of the handle in your waistband was sufficient to change attitudes in a New York minute.

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    As Fast Eddie would say, any questions?

    “Adrienne Heintz, an Atlanta marketing professional, has discovered a reliable way to earn higher wages, and Federal Reserve economists are taking note.

    The Auburn University alumnus changed jobs twice in the past two years and nabbed raises of 10 percent and 8 percent as a result. “Switching positions internally or externally is definitely the fastest way to a larger salary,” according to Heintz, who is 28.

    She isn’t alone in her approach, as a growing number of Americans are changing employers in search of more money. That trend is attracting the attention of labor economists, who are increasingly studying how job-hopping Americans drive compensation gains. The new focus comes at a time when the long-held theory that the unemployment rate can help forecast moves in wages and inflation is coming under scrutiny.

    Studying the impact of job changes “is a more nuanced and deeper analysis of labor markets and gives you a better picture of what’s really going on,” according to James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. “Look at the late ’90s: Unemployment went down to 3.8 percent and we didn’t get all that much inflation.””

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/fed-turns-to-job-hoppers-as-1950s-inflation-guide-shows-its-age

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Funny, my post at 10:36 questioned this subject and this article backs me up.

    “If you want a raise and your boss isn’t giving it to you, jump ship to another company, or up your skills. Obviously, your boss isn’t going to just give you a raise. He will milk you for as long as he/she can. This type of behavior is what holds back wage inflation…..people too afraid to jump ship or ask for a raise. Just sit content like a good little worker and keep your boss happy.”

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “And according to the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker, which monitors wages of continuously employed workers, Americans who are willing to change jobs do benefit. The data showed job switchers earned 4.3 percent more money in July 2016 than a year earlier, while people who remained in the same job enjoyed only a 3 percent increase.

    “Job-to-job changes and the threat of job-to-job mobility are strongly predictive of wage increases,” according to David Wiczer, an economist with the St. Louis Fed who has studied the matter.

    The insight underscores the importance of the so-called quit rate, a favorite indicator of Yellen that measures voluntary separations from an employer. The rate has almost recovered to levels seen before the recession of 2007-2009, which is a sign of confidence in the labor market. Job switching is “a good sign for the economy” and “an indication of dynamism,” according to the Fed’s Lockhart.”

  72. Fast Eddie says:

    Yeah, bagholder, it was all staged and planned. You got that from Yahoo or CNN? Click your heels together three times and say, “There’s no better deterrent than a red-line in the sand.” Hey, remember when the Obama administration brokered a deal with Russia to remove 100% of the chemical weapons from Syria? Kerry told us it was done! What a weak and helpless president Obama was. His name should have been President Freddo.

  73. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    I hope those 8 and 10 percent raises you obtain job hopping make up for the difference between unemployment checks and what you would have made if you didn’t keep getting laid off at every first rightsizing due to being last hired.

    I’m going on 19 years at my current employ. You would be amazed at how well they treated me this past year when I barely worked due to D’s brain cancer. Had I jumped ship for that 8 percent, I’m sure that new employer would have been happy to have me around about 16 hours per week but would still pay me in full.

    Point of reference. I don’t hire job hoppers. They are the most shallow, self-entitled pricks you will ever interview. Just interview one some time.

  74. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    “In 2016, United Van Lines reported, New Jersey was the state with the most “outbound” movers, ”

    That’s because the inbound movers tend to be on foot.

  75. Bagholder says:

    Your argument is with the Pentagon, not me. Called up Russia and Syria and gave them plenty of warning. It’s not a secret.

    Interesting to see if Congess hits a 180 on this too. Go long oil I guess.

  76. 3b says:

    Pumps so why aren’t you job hopping?? So is that your response to my wage inflation comment from earlier? So now we should all job hop and get 8 to 20 percent wage increases and then that means everyone who does not own a house will buy a house thereby making your house worth more and as such justifies your investment. No matter the topic it always comes back to your house!!

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Guy writes an entire article based on demographic spending patterns and trends, yet it totally flew over his head. Taxes do not hold the answers, demographic spending patterns do. And remember cheap means not good to raise a family, that’s why it’s cheap. Everything has a cost, you are not getting over on anyone by moving from a high cost location to a low cost location. Wish people understood this.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-see-how-america-is-changing-property-taxes-hold-the-answer-2017-04-07

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That article is just showing the effects of boomers going into retirement (you know demographic spending patterns). It’s as simple as that. So they are leaving high cost locations which are good for raising family, but not retiring, to low cost locations not good for raising families (and building wealth), but good for retirement.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’ve been getting raises, so why would I do that? And yes, if more people started job hopping, it would increase the pace of wage inflation. When people are confident enough to leave their job, that’s a healthy sign of coming wage inflation. It’s a sign of balance at the negotiating table, the boss does not have you by the balls. When people are scared to leave their job, say hello to stagnation.

    3b says:
    April 7, 2017 at 1:13 pm
    Pumps so why aren’t you job hopping?? So is that your response to my wage inflation comment from earlier? So now we should all job hop and get 8 to 20 percent wage increases and then that means everyone who does not own a house will buy a house thereby making your house worth more and as such justifies your investment. No matter the topic it always comes back to your house!!

  80. 3b says:

    Pumps so are you telling us you have been getting 8 to 10 percent raises since the financial crisis to the present? You are advocating job hopping to get these 8 to 10 percent raises yet you are not job hopping. But if you were/ are getting 8 to 10 percent raises all through the crisis up to the present than perhaps you could be getting 16 to 20 percent raises if you job hopped yourself.

  81. 3b says:

    Pumps what a broad stupid statement . So high cost always means good for raising family and wealth and low cost is not. Says you. Just stop and think about that statement for a moment?? I could blow multiple holes in that argument but why bother! You really are a simpleton.

  82. Fast Eddie says:

    Omg guys, (S)he’s trolling you! Come on!

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Won’t that create an interchange bubble? You’re so lucky you already live on the fastest street in town, Pumps. Maybe you can get the town to raise the speed limit on your street to make your commute even faster and thereby increase your highway home value even more? Hahahahahahahahaha

    When rt 3/46 interchange is modernized, wayne and the towns that feed off that interchange will become even more attractive with a shorter commute to the city.

  84. 3b says:

    Fast: perhaps. Or perhaps he really is that clueless. Anyhow it’s Friday and it’s fun playing with him.

  85. yome says:

    When jobs moves to low cost, low tax States, workers follow. Without NYC and satellites jobs from NYC , jobs in NJ are retail stores that are closing. Servers at TGIF and the likes are in trouble. Looks to me the State and the Local Govt is the largest employer.Expansions are in Fulfillment Centers hiring Part Time workers.

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Truth be known, his wife pays me to push his buttons. Easy work, I write a short post to wind him up and he pounds away at his keyboard for hours, giving her some peace and quiet. I get paid by the line.

    Fast: perhaps. Or perhaps he really is that clueless. Anyhow it’s Friday and it’s fun playing with him.

  87. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You just don’t get it. The reason these areas are cheap is because they currently cater to retirees as opposed to families. As families move in, they demand services, like school improvement for example, and raise the “social” cost of living which are taxes. As more and more families move to this low cost area, they increase demand, which increases cost of living by driving up cost of housing. They also increase the “social” cost by raising the crime rate causing a demand for emergency services, once again driving up your taxes.

    The point is this, there is no escaping high cost areas if you want a desirable environment to raise your kids in; you know things like good schools and safe streets cost money. If the location is cheap, it’s not providing you with good schools and safe streets. You see, any place that is currently cheap, attracting lots of families, and seeing major home appreciation will not be cheap in 10 years. They will be dealing with the same problem they ran away from….

    Just look at nj as an example. There are some really cheap locations to live, cheap taxes and cheap home prices, but why does no one want to live there? Why do they all gravitate to the high cost areas of our state? Why? Now apply this on a national level or global level, it doesn’t matter, the same rules apply….high cost of living areas are high cost because they are desirable places to live, raise a family, and make money. So stop calling me the simpleton and instead look in the mirror.

    3b says:
    April 7, 2017 at 3:36 pm
    Pumps what a broad stupid statement . So high cost always means good for raising family and wealth and low cost is not. Says you. Just stop and think about that statement for a moment?? I could blow multiple holes in that argument but why bother! You really are a simpleton.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The lowest I received since 2008 was 4.1%. That’s why I didn’t leave. Gave me consistent raises in a period where most people were happy to have their job. They never played games with me. So mock me all you want, but if your boss is not giving you a raise, you need to jump ship or up your skills.

    3b says:
    April 7, 2017 at 3:26 pm
    Pumps so are you telling us you have been getting 8 to 10 percent raises since the financial crisis to the present? You are advocating job hopping to get these 8 to 10 percent raises yet you are not job hopping. But if you were/ are getting 8 to 10 percent raises all through the crisis up to the present than perhaps you could be getting 16 to 20 percent raises if you job hopped yourself.

  89. Bystander says:

    Pump,

    Reality check, you were probably underpaid significantly compared to other jr. analysts. Most companies try to smooth out compensation over time. Of course, I think you must be overpaid for whatever you do.

  90. Phoenix says:

    Is CoreLogic ever wrong?

  91. 3b says:

    Pumps but raises of 8 to 10 percent?? You were only getting 4.1 percent . So why aren’t you jumping? You are leaving money on the table. You are advocating people jump yet you are not jumping.

  92. 3b says:

    Pumps you made a broad general statement that low cost is not God for families and not good for wealth . Only high cost. So millions of Americans throughout the country are failing their families and have no chance of creating wealth unless by your definition they live in the northeast particularly north Jersey and specifically in Wayne.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b,

    You can raise your family in Camden and find success. Come on, anything is possible in this world. I’m speaking in generalizations. Most families will not find success in low cost areas, not because I made it up, but because the stats say so. North Jersey communities breed the mentality that you are a loser if you don’t go to college. You know how difficult it is to find communities with 99% college attendance rates, and we are not talking about community college, in low cost areas? Give me a break already. The people with money are smart. They attract to these high cost areas for a reason. You think they are stupid and are overpaying? Think a little deeper on this subject.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And for the millionth time, I wasn’t the one complaining about not getting raises. I was simply providing a suggestion to the people unable to find wage growth.

  95. 3b says:

    Pumps You keep pointing to wage inflation as a means to drive demand for housing and appreciation in housing costs. We keep saying we don’t see it. You then point to a solution just job hop get 8 to 10 percent and boom problem solved. Here is wage inflation which will increase demand for housing and therefore appreciation. Do you see your thought train pumps?

  96. 3b says:

    Pumps there are millions of people all over the country who are living in low cost or lower cost areas. These areas have jobs some areas more than others . They have cities and colleges and all the rest. And they are creating wealth. While you appear to pity them perhaps they are laughing at us or you in particular who attempts to rationalize the higher the cost of living including property taxes than the better it must be.

  97. Phoenix says:

    If the taxpayers of NJ ever have their feet held to the fire to pay the pension shortfall in this state all hell will break loose.
    Taxes will double and no one will be able to sell their home without a significant haircut.
    The question is … Will that day ever come?

  98. 3b says:

    Phoenix more than a few that don’t even know.

  99. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Keep on typin’ Pumps. Ka-ching!

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, look at these proficiency scores. This is the no 3 school in NC in their rankings. Their scores in math are 69%!! In nj, that wouldn’t even land you in the top 100. You just don’t get it.

    https://www.niche.com/k12/east-chapel-hill-high-school-chapel-hill-nc/

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