Not the best in a decade?

From HousingWire:

Here’s why the housing market continues to struggle with low inventory

Tight housing inventory supply could put a strain on this year’s spring home-buying season, according to the monthly Outlook released Tuesday by Freddie Mac.

The low supply of inventory continues to push home prices up as they outpace rising incomes. Rising home prices combined with higher interest rates caused affordability to decrease in March.

Freddie Mac outlines four reasons why housing inventory remains low. They are:

1. Fear of low inventory

2. Mortgage rates

3. Home prices

4. Housing starts

And this tight inventory will pull down home sales for the year. Freddie Mac predicts home sales will come in at 5.9 million in 2017, falling from 5.97 million in 2016, which was housing’s best year in a decade.

This entry was posted in Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, Where's the Beef?. Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to Not the best in a decade?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    2. Mortgage rates

    I don’t think we’re even remotely in mortgage rate territory that would indicate we’re in any kind of “lock-in” scenario. In the past 5 years we’ve seen a 1% swing in 30y from a low near 3 1/4 and a high of 4 1/4. Currently sitting barely above 4.

    Very few people hit the 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 window – it only existed for a very narrow window of a few weeks.

    I can hardly believe that a jump from 3 3/4 to 4 would move the needle that far into the negative for most buyers.

    In fact, most bubble buyers that didn’t refinance, and who are moving further into positive equity, have significantly higher rates – it’s still beneficial for them.

  3. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @GQMagazine

    Clean out your desk, Bill

  4. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    am one of those very few. rates, say, going to 5 aren’t a deterrent to upsize my CHC. the real issue now is the lack of inventory even though my budget is twice as Fast Eddy’s

    grim says:
    April 19, 2017 at 6:52 am

    2. Mortgage rates

    Very few people hit the 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 window – it only existed for a very narrow window of a few weeks.

  5. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @nxthompson

    Bill O’Reilly’s brand is so toxic right now the only place that might hire him is the White House.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Puzzy,

    You know my budget? Interesting.

  7. grim says:

    Coincidentally, the latest CoreLogic Marketpulse has a piece exploring the impact of mortgage rates on homeowner mobility.

  8. Nomad says:

    Grim,

    Periodically you post metrics such as DOM, SP/LP, units sold YTD v LYTD and current inventory v inventory previous year.

    Will you be posting any of this information?

    Seems like pricing is high but not crazy here. In parts of the industrial mid-west, pricing is just stupid. Trying to figure out if / when this bubble will pop and what would make it happen. Fed sounds more interested in reducing their holdings vs rate increases lately. 3 25BP hikes this year would have started the process with 3-4 in ’17 accelerating downward pressure along with slowing economy. Not sure about any of it now.

    Thank you,

  9. grim says:

    Frank Nothaft’s conclusion was that if rates increase to 5 1/4 in the next 5 years, it will result in 100k fewer sales per year. Or, 500k total fewer sales in 5 years.

    Which seems very, very low.

  10. grim says:

    Probably not, I don’t have MLS access these days, and most of my key contacts moved on to other brokerages, etc – so I don’t have a tight enough relationship with them anymore. With Bob Aman passing away, I don’t really have much motivation/reason to stay involved in real estate. No other brokerage would give me the lee-way to do what I want, or give me the split I want, so I’m not going to bother. I briefly considered getting my brokers license, but who has the time? Whiskey won’t make itself. Besides, the cost for association fees, realtor fees, mls fees, etc – just too high these days. I helped pretty much everyone I ever intended to buy a house to do so at this point.

  11. grim says:

    Pricing is incredibly stupid over wide swaths of mid-America. To the extent that they are experiencing bubbles that put NJ’s to shame.

  12. grim says:

    Nashville, for example. Have a friend that bought shortly after 2000 in what was then a less-than-desirable neighborhood near downtown, it’s subsequently, one of the hottest now. I think he is up 5-6x at this point, absurd.

  13. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Gary,

    He’s no longer Puzzy. I officially dub that simpleton Anon…

    Wait for it…

    “Moana.”

  14. 30 year realtor says:

    Grim, If you want a great split and the ability to do just about whatever you would like with commissions, email me.

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    Moana… lol!

  16. Bystander says:

    What the appreciation in Waco due to those Fixer Upper folks? HGTV flipping shows are the modern day circus coming to town. Are there now like ten on HGTV? Flip o Flop, Fixer Upper, Flip Vegas, Flip Nashville, bearded couple somewhere in Mississippi and some girl flippers in Wisconsin. I’ve lost track. If that is not sign of another bubble then I don’t know what is.

  17. Nomad says:

    OK Grim, thanks for letting me know. Do you have any aspirations of ramping your Whiskey production? As I understand it, there is a significant shortage of the stuff in Asia. Perhaps its Bourbon not Whiskey, can’t recall.

  18. Ottoman says:

    why? Same thing is happening in Pittsburgh although the transformation there is totally on fleek. I mean Pittsburgh has a fvcking Mecox Garden store now, just like the Hamptons.

    Assuming it’s East Nashville. I spent tons of time in Nashville in the late 1990s to 2000s and at one point one of our drivers took us through East Nash to see the devastation of some massive tornado, prob 1998. There was tons of that quaint Austin-type early 20th century architecture that millenials love and it was so close to downtown that it’s transformation was bound to happen. Plus I’ll wager that storm forced out a lot of low income people who couldn’t afford to fix up their homes. Thus paving the way for white gentrification. Like New Orleans after Katrina.

    grim says:
    April 19, 2017 at 8:48 am
    Nashville, for example. Have a friend that bought shortly after 2000 in what was then a less-than-desirable neighborhood near downtown, it’s subsequently, one of the hottest now. I think he is up 5-6x at this point, absurd.

  19. Ottoman says:

    We also know you’re dumb as a rock.

    Fast Eddie says:
    April 19, 2017 at 7:42 am
    Puzzy,

    You know my budget? Interesting.

  20. chicagofinance says:

    Long winded way of saying “I’m lazy and cheap…..”

    grim says:
    April 19, 2017 at 8:41 am
    Probably not, I don’t have MLS access these days, and most of my key contacts moved on to other brokerages, etc – so I don’t have a tight enough relationship with them anymore. With Bob Aman passing away, I don’t really have much motivation/reason to stay involved in real estate. No other brokerage would give me the lee-way to do what I want, or give me the split I want, so I’m not going to bother. I briefly considered getting my brokers license, but who has the time? Whiskey won’t make itself. Besides, the cost for association fees, realtor fees, mls fees, etc – just too high these days. I helped pretty much everyone I ever intended to buy a house to do so at this point.

  21. chicagofinance says:

    Stu: did I post this song by Algiers…… not European….actually Georgia…..

    kind of a combo Depeche Mode/Public Enemy….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpLMc6nWtJw

  22. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Reminds me a lot of Consolidated from back in the 90s. If you are not familiar with them, I recommend you check out their stuff. Pretty cool video by the way.

  23. grim says:

    Besides, Canada will implode before anything else.

  24. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    I remember the tour guide mentioning the RE bubble in Canada when I toured Nova Scotia about a decade ago.

  25. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    I see another unusual one up in Byram. http://archive.northjersey.com/news/authorities-police-shoot-kill-man-in-northern-new-jersey-1.1349209

    What becomes very clear when looking at that chart is two things. First, we pay way too much for cops in the suburbs. Second, you can make gun laws as strict as you want and it won’t do a damn thing. It appears that 99% of the gun killing occurred in the ghetto. And lord knows that 100% of those guns were not registered.

  26. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Just t0ok a look at that gun kill map. Was surprised about the Cape May shooting. Then I dug deeper. Nice!

    Registered gun owner shot an intruder to death.

  27. grim says:

    Racist

  28. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @NYTimes

    Another woman has reported sexual harassment allegations against Bill O’Reilly

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo! Until I see that bubble implode, I’m not even considering a bubble on a national level for America. Come on, we are nowhere near bubble levels. When I see amateurs heading into flips in masses, and people filled with euphoria that they will miss their opportunity to buy before it goes higher, I will start calling for a bubble and it’s top.

    grim says:
    April 19, 2017 at 9:51 am
    Besides, Canada will implode before anything else.

  30. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Who cares Moana?

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Pretty good read. For some reason can’t post the link.

    “What we are seeing is a reaction to a rapidly changing world. A world that is becoming more connected. A world that is more diverse. A world where education and skills are necessary for good jobs.

    Change has not been kind to the Midwest and rural America.

    And rather than embrace it, rural and white working-class Americans are twisting and turning, fighting it every step of the way. We will never return to the days where a white man could barely graduate high school and walk onto a factory floor at 18 and get a well-paying job for life. That hasn’t set in for much of the Midwest.

    This doesn’t mean that coastal Americans can’t empathize more with their fellow Americans and try to find solutions to these problems (nor does it mean that there aren’t many struggling working-class people in coastal states). And it certainly doesn’t mean coastal Americans haven’t contributed to this divisiveness.”

  32. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    “This doesn’t mean that coastal Americans can’t empathize more with their fellow Americans and try to find solutions to these problems”

    Bingo. Instead, they are all dumb redneck racists. Deplorable even. And they wonder why they lost?

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:

    Perhaps O’Reilly and The Weiner could team up, kind of like a Hannity-Colmes thing.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:

    Moana (fka anon) now crowing about her wealth? This is a new thing.

    And so bourgeois. Must be making her head explode.

  35. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    The three could get together with Cosby and share pudding pops.

  36. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Hawaii Disney. Did they have a Moanarail?

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You know I’m all about number 1.

    “Here are some of the key predictions for 2017:

    1. Millennials and boomers will move markets

    In 2017, the U.S. real estate market will be in the middle of two massive demographic waves that will power demand for at least the next 10 years.

    Millennials and baby boomers, the two largest American generations in history, are both approaching life stages that typically motivate people to buy a home: marriage, having children, retirement, and becoming empty nesters.

    Smoke predicts that millennials will make up 33% of buyers in 2017, lower than his original estimate due to those increasing interest rates.

    2. Millennials will look to the Midwest

    While the financial picture may look grim for our youngest home buyers, the Midwest, with its affordable cities, still looks good. We believe Midwestern cities will continue to beat the national average in terms of its proportion of millennial home buyers in 2017. Leading the pack are Madison, WI; Columbus, OH; Omaha, NE; Des Moines, IA; and Minneapolis.

    “It’s easier for millennials to buy in more affordable markets like in the Midwest,” Smoke says. “We’re also seeing large numbers of millennials buying in Midwestern markets with or near big universities. So part of this is an effect of recent graduates with good jobs being able to settle down in these more affordable markets.”

    3. Price appreciation will slow down

    Nationally, home prices are forecast to slow to 3.9% growth year over year, from an estimated 4.9% in 2016.

    “Prices are still likely to go up at an above-average pace as long as supply remains so tight,” Smoke says. “The inventory problem is not going away.”

    Of the top 100 largest metros in the country, 26 markets are expected to see price acceleration of 1 percentage point or more, with Greensboro, NC; Akron, OH; and Baltimore experiencing the largest gains. Likewise, 46 markets are expected to see a slowdown in price growth of 1 percentage point or more, with Lakeland, FL; Durham, NC; and Jackson, MS, undergoing the biggest downshift.

    4. Fewer homes, fast-moving markets

    The inventory of homes available for sale is currently down an average of 11% year over year in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan markets—and the conditions limiting home supply are not expected to change in 2017. The median age of inventory, or the time it takes a home to sell, is currently 68 days in the top 100 metros, which is 14%, or 11 days, faster than the national average.

    5. The West will lead the way

    We’re expecting metropolitan markets in the West will see a price increase of 5.8% and sales increase of 4.7%, much higher than the U.S. overall. These markets also dominate the ranking of the realtor.com 2017 top housing markets (more on that tomorrow), making up five of the top 10 markets on the list: Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Riverside in California; Tucson, AZ; and Portland, OR.”

    http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/top-real-estate-trends-2017/

  38. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    From my perch, and based on my experience now renting to two sets of millennials. They have zero interest in purchasing. Lifetime renting seems okay to them. Even with kids. The one thing they all seem to have in common is that they are mechanically inept. The latest group I have in asked if I had central air? Oy.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Either way, doesn’t impact the housing market in a negative way. They want to rent….let them. There are a ton of investors like myself who will gladly take their rent as a form of passive income. The good thing about investor driven housing market not intent on flipping, it’s as stable as they come. Whatever the rent is, drives the price of the investment. It’s almost impossible to create a bubble when investors buy and hold with the intention to profit from the passive income. They are not paying a magical price with the intent of it going up, all they care about is what I care about, what does it produce compared to cost.

    Steamy Cankles Foundation says:
    April 19, 2017 at 11:04 am
    From my perch, and based on my experience now renting to two sets of millennials. They have zero interest in purchasing. Lifetime renting seems okay to them. Even with kids. The one thing they all seem to have in common is that they are mechanically inept. The latest group I have in asked if I had central air? Oy.

  40. Phoenix says:

    Pumpkin,
    What do you think NJ should do about the 49B pension shortfall? I would love to hear your opinion on how it should be handled. Supposing for a minute that you were just elected governor of NJ. How would you approach this situation?

  41. Steamy Cankles Foundation says:

    Adding the unfunded health liability, it’s just about 100 billion.

    There are 8.9 million peeps in NJ and the total state tax revenue brings in about 33 billion a year.

  42. Phoenix says:

    SCF,
    Could be, I don’t know, you do tend to put up very accurate figures I might add.

    Someone enlighten me. I only see a few scenarios.
    1. Force taxpayers to pay up over time. (will affect younger people)
    2. Find a way to declare it bankrupt (legal issues?)
    3. Cut benefits/pensions for newer employees (underway already, combines with number one, will affect younger/newer employees more)
    4. Eliminate public schools (underway, charter schools, online education. Lower wages
    /worse benefits hurt younger people more.)
    5 Invest pension money to gain an increase (from what I have been reading lately a monkey throwing poop at a list of stocks would do better, and for a lower fee).

  43. No One says:

    Bill O’Reilly can now join Bill Clinton’s and Bill Cosby’s gentleman’s club
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wh3FCjeynuY

  44. D-FENS says:

    They’re not registered anywhere. There is no requirement to register guns in nj.

    ” And lord knows that 100% of those guns were not registered”

  45. D-FENS says:

    Trump Summer White House will be in New Jersey

    https://savejersey.com/2017/04/donald-trump-bedminster-new-jersey/

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Phoenix, there is no easy answer. The best way to attack the problem is to grow the state economy. That’s why I mentioned Murphy yesterday, he seems to understand this.

    You can’t eliminate public schools, it goes against our constitution, and rightfully so. The destruction that will result long term from no education is not the answer to lower debt in the short term. Way too destructive.

    You can’t take anymore away from the public workers, ch 78 clobbered them. They lost their cost of living in the pension, increased health benefits costs that are higher than most private workers, increased contribution, longer start to retirement, elimination of health retirement benefits, and they probably haven’t seen their take home go up in years. Beating them up some more is not the answer, esp when you conned them into accepting all these reductions with the stipulation that money would be put in the pension and it wasn’t. It’s wrong to punish them anymore than they have already been punished.

    So the answer is to grow the economy (nothing can be done without this), slowly cut services (need to do an all out audit….I say get rid of all forms of county govt like that post alluded to yesterday), get bonds for the short term, and slowly pay back what was taken. It’s not as big a problem as everyone makes it out to be due to the fact that it does not have to be paid out in one sum. We can pay that sum over the next 50-80 years, it does not have to be payed all at once.

    So I would indeed move out of this state if this cost was due today. It would be impossible to pay in one lump sum. The truth of the matter is that it will not ever have to be payed all at once, and if the nj economy tanks, there will be some form of bankruptcy and elimination of even more benefits/services, but we will survive.

    Just need to elect people that are smart and set on doing the right thing. There’s always an answer to any problem, no matter how complex the problem is.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Simple solution (i.e. The Final Solution):
    1. Remove all pension choices except selecting a single life with no period certain.
    2. Commander the NJ Transit train stock.
    3. Use eminent domain to develop abandoned and underutilized Sussex County real estate.
    4. Resurrect the Lackawanna Bypass for access to public land.
    5. Develop new co-generation electric plants to supply NJ electric grid.
    6. Purchase off-market sarin gas from Assad regime.
    7. Use NJ Transit to transport all recipients of selection 1. to newly developed chambers.
    8. Use remains to power electricity generation and rebate customers monthly bills.

    Phoenix says:
    April 19, 2017 at 11:26 am
    Pumpkin,
    What do you think NJ should do about the 49B pension shortfall? I would love to hear your opinion on how it should be handled. Supposing for a minute that you were just elected governor of NJ. How would you approach this situation?

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Commander = Commandeer

  49. Now Spanky, be reasonable says:

    Where in the constitution is public education mentioned?

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Read.

    “(TAXATION AND FINANCE), SECTION IV, PARAGRAPH 1. The Legislature shall provide for the maintenance and support of a thorough and efficient system of free public schools for the instruction of all the children in the State between the ages of five and eighteen years.”

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the problem with charter schools. Goes against our state’s constitution by sucking away funds from non profit education to for profit education. Why in the world would you put charter schools in place if you weren’t simply stealing tax money? Makes absolutely no sense otherwise. You can set up academies in public schools if you want to separate students that want to learn from those that don’t.

  52. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @BBCbreaking

    Fox News presenter Bill O’Reilly loses job
    over allegations of sexual harassment
    of female colleagues

  53. LurksMcGee says:

    Pumpkin,

    To add to your point about growing the economy, the immediate and simple choice (IMO) would be marijuana legalization. Seeing the revenue grow so much in Colorado while Christie tears down the idea is just insane to me.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Breaking:

    Roger Ailes and Bill O’Reilly to form new cable network, LNN (The Loofah News Network;-)

    Hannity’s radio show just started a minute ago. I think he’s just going to ignore the story (or has been ordered to).

  55. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bingo! Right there, solves how many problems and raises revenue. You also cut down on a bunch of services used to maintain the law on marijuana.

    This is the problem with Christie, he doesn’t really want to help the state. He wants to maintain an ideology that appeased to his conservative base. Fat man, everyone is smoking it no matter what. Stop wasting our tax money trying to get them to stop. They are adults and let them choose to do whatever the hell they want. Instead this fat f!ck let Massachusetts beat us to the punch. The idea is to be the first state in the northeast to legalize it. This way we take full advantage of our location and suck the money from these out of staters who will come to buy here. Too bad Christie is worried about taking away a pension and punishing govt workers for working for the govt. The guy is so fu!king lost, I want to punch him in the face for what he has done for this state. The definition of a loser who gets ahead by not being productive, but by bullying and blaming others.

    LurksMcGee says:
    April 19, 2017 at 2:55 pm
    Pumpkin,

    To add to your point about growing the economy, the immediate and simple choice (IMO) would be marijuana legalization. Seeing the revenue grow so much in Colorado while Christie tears down the idea is just insane to me.

  56. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @bessbell

    Congratulations to Bill O’Reilly on taking this important first step toward the presidency of the United States.

  57. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @pourmecoffee

    Serial abusers given free reign to terrorize women for decades
    right up until it became legally untenable
    while they sermonized on morality.

  58. yome says:

    Assuming Morgan Stanley continues its stellar performance through the rest of the year, employees could earn an annual 2017 salary of $321,252.

    http://fortune.com/2017/04/19/morgan-stanley-earnings-raise/

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How come nobody is talking about this? How come nobody is standing in highways blocking traffic? How come no one is rioting? White privilege I suppose….white lives don’t matter these days. Have a friend that lives there and didn’t even hear about it.

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-fresno-shooting-20170418-story,amp.html

  60. SteamTurd, reminiscing about Cankles says:

    We deserve to be shot. Right Moana?

  61. grim says:

    Would be more effective to ban private education, including religious.

  62. Now Spanky, be reasonable says:

    Pump, what you quoted from our state constitution says nothing about charter schools. Is there something else in our state constitution that bans state funds for a private organization or business?

  63. Yo! says:

    Improve NJ pension funds’ financial status by selling the Turnpike and Parkway to infrastructure investors and putting most of the proceeds into the pension funds. This is the perfect environment to do it with interest rates low and asset values high. The asset side would improve in a big way overnight. Of course, as part of the deal, address the liability side by reducing the generosity of the benefits.

    The state could go further by auctioning all or part of Liberty State Park to real estate developers and reclaiming land along the Hudson River then selling it.

  64. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When they wrote the constitution, charter schools didn’t exist. They should update to exclude tax funds being used towards “for profit privately owned schools” who do not except every student when a “non profit public school” is already in place. It’s wrong to take the funds from the non profit who has to follow state educational laws and give it to some privately owned for profit school that basically gets to do whatever it wants. The kids in the public school get shafted as the school doesn’t have the funds to support its operation because it’s slowly bleeding to death due to the yearly cuts by the charter to its lifeline.

    I think that’s the plan. This is how they get out of the obligation of paying for the education of kids who they think is a waste of money to educate. It’s unfortunate that they pit the educational results of poor kids vs rich kids and come to the conclusion that this poor child is just a waste of money and resources to educate. It’s an unfair comparison made to paint the picture that schools who serve poor children are failures because they don’t produce the same data as their rich counterparts. I would like to say to these people…no sh!t Sherlock. Why in the world would you ever think poor students would perform at the same level as rich students. Just stupid and not realistic. So stop pumping out data comparisons between rich and poor schools and then labeling these schools as failures and winners. The nerve of these people to take away educational dollars from poor kids on the basis they think their schools are failures based on unrealistic expectations. Makes me sick! No morals or ethics. No idea how these individuals look at themselves in the mirror.

    Food for thought….the schools aren’t failing. They provide an important role in these inner city communities. Most of all, they truly provide an opportunity for ALL STUDENTS, whether they take advantage or not, they are provided an enormous opportunity and that’s what matters. You can’t save them all, but if you are giving them a chance at improvement in life through education that is all that matters.

    That article I posted a few weeks back about the girl from Passaic who was accepted by a bunch of ivies says it all. How in the hell can the school be considered a failure when it produced an Ivy League student? How could a school district that is supposedly a waste of money and providing a “failing education” produce this? But let’s ignore the fact that it’s a poor population and label it a failing school when they don’t produce like the top schools in a data comparison.

    I’ll say it again, people attacking these schools should be ashamed of themselves….yes, I’m talking to you Christie!

    Now Spanky, be reasonable says:
    April 19, 2017 at 6:04 pm
    Pump, what you quoted from our state constitution says nothing about charter schools. Is there something else in our state constitution that bans state funds for a private organization or business?

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:

    In the meantime, Moana wants this guy freed because his actions were clearly excusable by his lack of privilege.

    http://people.com/crime/person-of-interest-in-custody-for-murder-of-jogger-karina-vetrano-reports/

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  67. Comrade Nom Deplume, The GOAT says:

    The NYT (aka Pravda) tried to throw some shade on the administration by comparing the size of the crowds from the last two Patriots’ receptions on the South Lawn. The NYT suggested in its reporting that many members of the Pstriots skipped the meeting with Trump.

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