Gentrification of the shore almost complete?

From the NYT:

Memories of a Jersey Shore Town, Before a Boom

On a hot August afternoon in the late 1990s, I waited at Donnelly’s Deli in Avalon, N.J., for our family’s sandwich order. This was a rare treat. We were a bologna-and-cheese-on-white-bread kind of family, loading up the car with beach chairs and boogie boards and a basket of towels for the drive to the Avalon beach from our trailer at a campground a few miles away.

But on that day, near the end of the summer, when my mother was tired of fixing our family of six a summer’s worth of beach sandwiches, we went to this one-story, brick-front deli that smelled like chips, sweat, pickles and meat, to let someone else do it for us.

In 2005, Donnelly’s closed, and the building was torn down — along with the rest of the block. In its place now is a three-story retail and residential building whose first floor features a Lululemon and a Lilly Pulitzer, both open for the summer only.

Like many beach communities, Avalon was transformed as real estate prices shot through the stratosphere. When I was a teenager in the 1990s, my parents thought the $110,000 price tag on a home there was just too much, which is why we spent our summer in a trailer.

Last year, the average home sale price in Avalon was $1.27 million. That’s down from a prerecession high of $1.75 million, in 2006, but still a lot of money. Beach cottages have been razed for mansions. Luxury cars and golf carts roll through the streets. Even the Princeton, a hole-in-the-wall bar where you went to meet someone whose name you couldn’t hear over the music, now has a raw bar.

This has, at least financially, been a good thing for Avalon.

For long-timers who lived there or had small second homes they rented out most of the summer to pay the mortgage, this change secured their retirement. But it also emptied the town. Avalon’s year-round population dropped 37.8 percent from 2000 to 2010, according to the Census Bureau.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Shore Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

176 Responses to Gentrification of the shore almost complete?

  1. JJ fanboy says:

    First

  2. grim says:

    Never made it out of Newark. 6+ hours of delays, head out to the tarmac to take off and … engine problems.

  3. Chi says:

    Idiot

  4. Yo! says:

    Home prices down 25% in Avalon described as a boom? Anyway, the Shore towns get wealthier or poorer faster than other NJ communities. With wealthy Americans as rich as ever, and the Shore economy in tatters, this separation will continue.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Your greed prevents a more powerful economy for all. Cheer on the biggest bubble in our economy, the growth of income at the top, which can not last and will not last, all for the sake of the belief that the halfwits and 3rd raters deserve nothing based on their level of contribution. Just remember, Mr. Greed, these are people that consume. Without their consumption, you will be producing for nothing. Too bad you can’t understand, or better yet, refuse to acknowledge this little dilemma. So suck up even a higher percentage of the economy to the top, this will end well.

    No One says:
    June 19, 2017 at 11:17 pm
    NJ report about some unpromotable financial analyst thinking about how other people’s money should be redeployed into hiking the salaries of halfwits and 3rd-raters in all fields, so the can enjoy NJ’s vast array of overpriced homes, property taxes, and nightlife.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Every time the top takes another 1% at the expense of the bottom, the bottom has less chance to consume, hence holding the economy back from its true potential. And if you claim this is not the case, look at the passage below. The top gained 8% and the bottom lost 8%. The bottom already has no money, so they will consume less. The top has a ton of money, hence, they were already at full consumption levels, the extra capital they gained is going to waste, trying to find investments in a low growth environment their greed has created. Why can’t you understand this, No One?

    “There’s more. “The average pretax income of the bottom 50% of US adults has stagnated since 1980, while the share of income of US adults in the bottom half of the distribution collapsed from 20% in 1980 to 12% in 2014,” writes Howard Gold, founder and editor of GoldenEgg Investing, in the Chicago Booth blog.

    “In a mirror-image move, the top 1% commanded 12% of income in 1980 but 20% in 2014. The top 1% of US adults now earns on average 81 times more than the bottom 50% of adults; in 1981, they earned 27 times what the lower half earned.”

    Here’s a link to the full paper for the academically inclined.”

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Such a small town, hard to determine where prices truly are. Did they buy a cheaper knock down and replace it with a mansion that isn’t reflected in the sales data? Were flips being sold back in 2006 reflecting higher price data? Were more beach front mansions being sold in 2006 as opposed to 2017 providing higher price data? Avalon is filthy rich, the 1.25 number is hard to believe.

    Yo! says:
    June 20, 2017 at 7:56 am
    Home prices down 25% in Avalon described as a boom? Anyway, the Shore towns get wealthier or poorer faster than other NJ communities. With wealthy Americans as rich as ever, and the Shore economy in tatters, this separation will continue.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    More evidence of fuel for the coming boom in real estate and the economy.

    “After almost a decade, Americans may finally be turning the corner on saving money. More than 30 percent of them say they have enough tucked away to cover six months’ worth of expenses—a seven-year high for this measure of financial calamity preparedness, a financial planning favorite.

    Meanwhile, the percentage who concede in response to an annual survey that they have no savings fell to a six-year low of 24 percent, down from 28 percent last year.

    “Ever since the recession, we’ve noticed in surveys that people realize how important it is to have emergency savings, but for so many years post-recession they just weren’t making any progress,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, which released the survey on Tuesday. Now a broader swath of people are finally making headway, he said.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/millennials-are-helping-america-save-more-money

  9. Bystander says:

    Dufus thinks all the rich people get together Eyes Wide Shut style and conspire to suppress wages globally. Who exactly are you talking to, besides one of your personalities? Income growth happens when either big industry sees a chance to make a killing conning the masses (ie selling MBS sludge) or forced by inflation. Neither seems to be happening soon. Amount of times majority of businesses have given raises for patriotism = 0.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No, it’s not like that. It’s called greed and capitalism. They chase profit at all costs, and with nothing to hold them in check (its their money) they will destroy us all. Why you can’t understand this is beyond me, I think I painted the picture pretty damn clearly.

    “Dufus thinks all the rich people get together Eyes Wide Shut style and conspire to suppress wages globally”

  11. Anon E. Moose, Ghost of JJ says:

    5/10 comments, including 4 in a row, by Gourdo-o before 9:00 AM. Brah, you need your own blog.

  12. No One says:

    Who said it- Pumpkin or fictional character?
    “I don’t see why businessmen object to it. It’s to their own advantage. If everybody else is poor, they won’t have any market for their goods. But if they stop being selfish and share the goods they’ve hoarded—they’ll have a chance to work hard and produce some more.”

  13. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    I have decided to ignore the ignoramus as we all should. His brain is made of some kind of impermeable substance that, though as dense as Osmium, is somehow as unstable as Francium. Even if you do somehow break through his thick skull, the concept is forgotten as soon as he scans the next headline in the Washington Post.

    Trust me. You are all wasting your time with this unintentional troll. Best to completely ignore him and he’ll fade away soon enough. Or maybe not.

  14. jcer says:

    Pumpkin it’s called finding efficiencies and the market providing a supply of goods and services to match demand. Unfortunately for fools like Pikety, we have tried experiments to change it to avoid the downsides(Communism), it doesn’t work. Greed and the profit motive is behind the vast majority of advances in human history. If people stop watching the bottom line you wind up with the state government of NJ, broke and totally ineffective. Introducing distortions in a market rarely yields the desired outcome.

    Also hey vote for Murphy, the Goldman crook, he cares so much for the little guy he oversaw slave labor in shoe factories in China…he seems slimy(don’t tell me he didn’t know at best he’s incompetent, or worse a hypocrite).

  15. chicagofinance says:

    I have a hard time believing it is not an act……

    Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:
    June 20, 2017 at 9:22 am
    I have decided to ignore the ignoramus as we all should. His brain is made of some kind of impermeable substance that, though as dense as Osmium, is somehow as unstable as Francium. Even if you do somehow break through his thick skull, the concept is forgotten as soon as he scans the next headline in the Washington Post.

    Trust me. You are all wasting your time with this unintentional troll. Best to completely ignore him and he’ll fade away soon enough. Or maybe not.

  16. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Anyone see the movie Captain Fantastic? I watched it with my 12-year old who is finally mature enough to handle rated-R films. What an excellent little film.

  17. chicagofinance says:

    the cartoonish stupidity coupled with an unexplanable persistence yields performance art……..

  18. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    “I have a hard time believing it is not an act……”

    If it is. What a complete and utter waste of time. His and ours!

  19. chicagofinance says:

    gourd that is

  20. JJ fanboy says:

    Grim,

    People have been trying and failing to get out of Newark for generations.

  21. joyce says:

    Moose,

    And our resident Rhodes scholar Fabius thinks the decline is due to other posters … not the fact that on a good day 50% of the posts are by one person and can go as high as 80%.

  22. jcer says:

    As for the Jersey Shore no gentrification, the vast majority of the shore has been quite wealthy for as long as I can remember. Outside of a few areas which started to gentrify before the last bust in 2006(Asbury, Long Branch, seaside and the wildwoods also saw a big bump in prices).

  23. Troll Feeder says:

    Pumpkin: Can you please explain why you DON’T support market forces in determining the price of labor, but DO support market forces is determining the price of housing?

    You yourself are “destroying” some poor families in search of a decent home! You dirty Capitalist pig!!! You should be ashamed of yourself.

  24. joyce says:

    And then there’s this:
    Twenty-five years ago, U.S. tech companies pledged to stop using chemicals that caused miscarriages and birth defects…. so they outsourced.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-15/american-chipmakers-had-a-toxic-problem-so-they-outsourced-it?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

    Whether it’s to leverage slave or slave-like labor, the non-existence of environmental regulations, or some other nefarious purpose … what else can the US do to prevent this other than tariffs? (Which won’t happen, Trump is all talk – see his recent recommendation to lower drug prices, if enacted they will increase further)

  25. 3b says:

    Pumps troll feeder said what I have been saying to you for months. You cry for the little guy salaries etc. yet you think high real estate prices and property taxes are perfectly fine. You feign compassion for the little guy and the poor and yet at the same time scorn them for what you deem to be their own fault. You are not consistent in your thought process and repeatedly contradict yourself.

  26. Fast Eddie says:

    I have a hard time believing it is not an act……

    Hello! Lol! From the first post, it was noted! It’s an act!! He is a she and does not work. What is curious is that this person does this all… day…. long!

  27. jcer says:

    Also the jersey shore had a huge bust in the early 90’s, so the 90’s marked an unusually cheap period to purchase a home(true of most parts on NJ). If you bought in 87 it took until 2000 to fully recover in some places. It has always been a luxury and with the rich in NJ getting richer it continues.

    An yes the exploding expenses in housing, education, health, and insurance are bigger problems for today’s working class than “income inequality”. So if Pumps is so concerned maybe he can reduce his tenants rents?

  28. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    The family was in Ocean City on Saturday. It was absolutely packed on a mediocre beach day. The number of knockdowns was astounding. I haven’t been there in decades. It’s much nicer than I remember it being as a kid.

  29. Bystander says:

    Stu,

    Yep, I caught that last month. Very well done, sad but poignant. Viggo is certainly one of more underated actors around, though I did not need to see his junk. Funny scene though.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The unemployment rate is at unsustainable levels, and you are only seeing wage growth for the professional class and above. Why is this? Why is the economy having trouble creating real growth? It’s because the bottom can no longer consume at the levels they once did, killing the ability of the economy to grow with this consumption.

    Need evidence? What part of retail has been growing? High end. What part of the housing market has been growing? High end. Why?

    Now, can the production that comes with feeding the consumption of the rich replace the production that comes with feeding the consumption of the bottom 50%? HELL NO. How many workers are needed to build twenty houses as compared to one? How many workers are needed to produce a $10,000 dress as compared to 100’s of dresses? How many workers are needed? What’s the impact on the economy.

    I guess Jcer is right, capitalism is based on greed and profit motive because it is the most efficient way to run the economy. Just have to accept the good times will be followed by bad times and so on in a never ending cycle of capitalism (grow, die, grow).

    I know there is a better way to do it(communism is not the better way to do it), but it will never happen. Too many people are stuck in their ways and will never give up anything for the greater good. If they don’t have to pay their worker more, they never will, even if this means slowing down the economic growth by starving the avg consumer of capital by eliminating their job or holding their wages down by forcing them to compete with some third world living standard.

  31. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Bystander….yeah…the junk seen was really not necessary. My son absolutely loved it too.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Here is what you are missing. If they gave these workers wages capable of producing nice growth in the economy, they will get every penny back plus way more from the growth (it’s a got damn investment if you are smart enough to realize it). Too bad their short term greed blocks them from seeing the long term benefits of paying their workers a wage in which they can signal to businesses that they should produce more and grow the economy.

    Although, if we lowered the cost of housing, it would indeed boost the economy, but it would not be continuous. It would be a one time boost, and then we will be right back where we are…..with the majority of the population not receiving enough income (capital) to signal to business to grow the economy. It’s much better to focus on the division between labor and profit (income inequality), then reducing the price of an asset to fix this problem. With income, the asset will always adjust to the level of income. So let’s focus on the real problem, the bottom 50% are not getting enough of the income pie because the top is taking too much because they can. Offshoring and automation have allowed them to take more than they should, and this is not good for anyone in America.

    Troll Feeder says:
    June 20, 2017 at 9:30 am
    Pumpkin: Can you please explain why you DON’T support market forces in determining the price of labor, but DO support market forces is determining the price of housing?

    You yourself are “destroying” some poor families in search of a decent home! You dirty Capitalist pig!!! You should be ashamed of yourself.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They are all symptoms of income inequality due to the fact that the bottom 50% wages have not kept up anywhere close to the cost of these products. So what happens, they still need it, so now the professional class gets stuck making up the cost of it. When the hell are the elite going to do their part? They just get to keep it all, right? Take their money and hide it in some off-shore account so they don’t have to help pay for the costs of society (taxes). Just push all the costs of their insane growth in income on the rest of us, right? Real healthy economy right there.

    “An yes the exploding expenses in housing, education, health, and insurance are bigger problems for today’s working class than “income inequality”. So if Pumps is so concerned maybe he can reduce his tenants rents?”

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    At least go back to REInvestor for a while to break up the torture! Or, invent a new personality. This one is well done.

  35. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    My favorite character ever was Bilova.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s the problem with this country. Can’t have discussions about this. For some reason it angers people. There is no middle ground. The poor wants to take all the wealth of the rich and the rich wants to take all the wealth for themselves. Can’t have an open objective analysis because of greed from both sides. Human nature sucks.

  37. JJ fanboy says:

    Fasteddie

    I am as just thinking the same thing. Pumps writing style reminds me of reinvestor

  38. LurksMcGee says:

    3B

    I actually agree with your points about feigned concern. Not sure if Pumpkin is a candidate, but I do think its interesting that wealthy Dems tend to have that feeling. Its like there is a disconnect between how they feel about their own wealth, protecting that wealth and trying to protect the little guy.

    Pumpkin,

    I don’t think your correlation between high end retail/home growth is a bad thing. If you think about it, high end should ALWAYS be growing. When that happens, it forces people to catch up. Otherwise, 2000 sqft homes with central air wouldn’t be normal today. Families would be still be in 1200 sqft homes and we’d never have iPhones.

    Wealth and growth are the brains behind this train, and the middle class throws the coal in. Our system is almost like a “natural selection” of prosperity. Those lagging behind either step up to the plate or get left behind.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    My favorite character ever was Bilova.

    What about Pretorious? lol

  40. leftwing says:

    Let’s just ask grim to block him or pick up and move somewhere else.

    Of course, pumps will lament about how it’s because his ‘views’ don’t fit and we don’t appreciate them.

    Ironically so as he does not comprehend that there are many different views all welcome around the table here, and he is the barking lap dog underneath.

  41. Fast Eddie says:

    I wish the old guard would come back. I don’t know why people respond when the act is so blatant and obvious.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    The Climate Wars’ Damage to Science
    The great thing about science is that it’s self-correcting. The good drives out the bad, because experiments get replicated and hypotheses tested — or so I used to think. Now, thanks largely to climate science, I see bad ideas can persist for decades, and surrounded by myrmidons of furious defenders they become intolerant dogmas
    https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2015/06/climate-wars-done-science/

  43. chicagofinance says:

    Politicians love this polarising because it means they can attack a straw man. It’s what they are good at.
    xxx
    Barack Obama says that 97 per cent of scientists agree that climate change is “real, man-made and dangerous”. That’s just a lie (or a very ignorant remark): as I point out above, there is no consensus that it’s dangerous.

    So where’s the outrage from scientists at this presidential distortion? It’s worse than that, actually. The 97 per cent figure is derived from two pieces of pseudoscience that would have embarrassed a homeopath. The first was a poll that found that 97 per cent of just seventy-nine scientists thought climate change was man-made—not that it was dangerous. A more recent poll of 1854 members of the American Meteorological Society found the true number is 52 per cent
    xxx

  44. No One says:

    The gourd reflects the neo-Keynesian view of modern leftists that there’s a new “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” perpetual economic motion machine. The idea is that if government somehow makes everyone have more money, then that will make the economy better. They imagine that the somehow can be helicopter cash drops, or it can be mandatory wage increases, or just lots of “free” entitlements.
    This is because they don’t think economics has anything to do with the production of useful goods and services. They think that’s automatic – and demand is the only lever they need to worry about. If you just declare everyone a millionaire, the fancy cars, big homes on quiet streets, large screen TVs, yachts, and beautiful wifes/husbands will all just magically appear, provided by the demand-side fairies. And people who say it won’t work are just lacking in belief. Then they say – no, I never said everyone should be a millionaire, the government should just make everyone making $20k suddenly earn $35k, and every financial analyst who lives in Wayne and never gets promoted because he’s always goofing off and doesn’t invest in his skills, and he doesn’t want to get promoted anyway because it’s too much bother, well, he should get a pay raise too, to about $150k/yr even though he cannot understand how to calculate NPV unless his spreadsheet does it for him.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    She’s a troll. She’s not real.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m talking nonsense, but the best capitalist to ever grace this planet (buffet) understands the problem. Open up your mind.

    “As noted by Edwards:

    Set aside any moral or political concerns you may have about rising income inequality — worries about poverty, justice, undue political influence or even social mobility. According to [Kemal] Dervis, co-author of the book, the research collected in “Inequality in America,” shows that a growing number of economists suspect that once inequality passes a certain point it may jeopardize economic stability and economic growth. As the book argues, “rebalancing of the distribution of income may play a role in unlocking the U.S. economy’s growth potential in a sustainable way.”

    That is exactly the point Warren Buffet, Bill Gross and Stanley Druckenmiller make. You don’t have to be a communist to conclude that high levels of inequality not only adversely affects long-term growth, but also increases the economy’s vulnerability to recession.”

  47. 3b says:

    Fast pumps is a guy. Why do you think otherwise?

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    It’s a woman who does not live in Wayne nor is she a financial analyst. Regardless, it’s an act and responding as if the debate is serious is foolish.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s 97.2 percent to 2.8 percent if you throw out the no-position papers. Let’s say those no-position papers still bother you, though. You could look at other research, including surveys in which scientists are simply asked directly which side they’re on. University of Sussex economist Richard Tol did that in a 2016 critique of the Cook research, citing a range of results from 35 percent of scientists endorsing the global warming consensus to 100 percent (although most of the studies he listed came out above 85 percent). 2 But when Cook and another group of co-authors 3 sifted through the study results to focus on the views of active climate scientists (as opposed to scientists in other fields and people with scientific credentials who weren’t doing research), they concluded that AGW commanded a consensus of 90 percent to 100 percent.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-15/97-percent-consensus-on-climate-change-it-s-complicated

    chicagofinance says:
    June 20, 2017 at 11:22 am
    Politicians love this polarising because it means they can attack a straw man. It’s what they are good at.
    xxx
    Barack Obama says that 97 per cent of scientists agree that climate change is “real, man-made and dangerous”. That’s just a lie (or a very ignorant remark): as I point out above, there is no consensus that it’s dangerous.

    So where’s the outrage from scientists at this presidential distortion? It’s worse than that, actually. The 97 per cent figure is derived from two pieces of pseudoscience that would have embarrassed a homeopath. The first was a poll that found that 97 per cent of just seventy-nine scientists thought climate change was man-made—not that it was dangerous. A more recent poll of 1854 members of the American Meteorological Society found the true number is 52 per cent
    xxx

  50. JJ fanboy says:

    Is pumps pat? I thought pat and re101 were the same person

  51. 3b says:

    Fast I was just curious what makes you think pumps is a woman.

  52. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Check this out and tell me we were wrong for pulling out of the Paris Accord. It is possible that a-holes, such as our governor and the POTUS can get something right once in a while. CC got the TUNNEL correct, and property tax increases in NJ are finally under some control. Pretty everything else, he was a trainwreck. As for DT, I would not sign any pollution treaty until it’s verifiable and fair. I think he did the right thing in Paris. Though, his repeal of everything Obama did for the past 12 months is downright childish.

    http://aqicn.org/map/world/

  53. Troll Feeder says:

    Wouldn’t an arbitrary increase in wages yield a similar “one time boost”? Or are you saying this boost would somehow flip a switch? Do you think other variables could be at play here?

    Seriously, you might be on the way to solving world hunger. And all we had to do is take people’s money away from them and give it to other people who haven’t yet figured out how the world works. Just think of all the video games and Taco Bell meals that could be had!

    “Although, if we lowered the cost of housing, it would indeed boost the economy, but it would not be continuous. It would be a one time boost, and then we will be right back where we are…..”

  54. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Just to be clear, I am not responding to the ignorant troll.

    Looking at the economic situation facing America from 40,000 feet. The majority is lower class and these numbers are growing as the middle class is slowly, but surely sinking in that direction. The upper class, though growing, is growing much more slowly in number. So the question is? Why does the majority keep electing members of the upper class to govern us? And why don’t we protest the continued deterioration of services? This is the question I find myself asking the most. The system is so tainted beyond belief that it is most likely irreparable. Hence my plan to get out of dodge in the next decade. One has to be completely ignorant to think that this country, and especially this state, have much of a future to look forward to.

  55. 3b says:

    Steam I agree. And ironically it’s the old farts on both sides who are screaming the loudest. Left/right,Trump ,Hillary. The young people are strangely silent. As a few have told me after Obama s home and change b.s. and then Sanders not getting the nomination right or wrong they don’t care anymore. They have checked out. So round and round the madness goes. I see nothing on the horizon as a positive for NJ or the USA.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are belittling me and you don’t even understand. It wouldn’t be a one time boost, you would take the percentage gained by the top and give it back to the bottom, so that the equilibrium in the economy is returned. Why is the equilibrium between profit and labor important? If the balance is swayed to either side too much, it destroys the future economic growth, hence, it destroys the economy.

    You all can understand that consequences of paying a worker too much, but NO ONE SEEMS TO UNDERSTAND THE CONSEQUENCES OF PAYING PROFIT TOO MUCH. Damn, why is this so hard to understand? Get out of your bias views, and open your mind. An economy is an ecosystem, everything matters, not just the top.

    Troll Feeder says:
    June 20, 2017 at 12:29 pm
    Wouldn’t an arbitrary increase in wages yield a similar “one time boost”? Or are you saying this boost would somehow flip a switch? Do you think other variables could be at play here?

  57. Troll Feeder says:

    Steamturd,

    As much as I dislike business models like Google and Facebook – who capitalize on the masses by providing a “free” service (at the expense of personal information) – one cannot deny that they have created a ton of value. Hitching your wagons to dynamos like these has been the story of capitalism in America since its very founding.

    I raise your 40,000 ft to 100,000: The existence of a robust middle class is a fluke in the history of mankind. It’s only as big as the people in power need it to be.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Check this, do you understand what caused the 2008 crises? I bet you will blame the fact that they lowered lending standards, but guess what, it was NOT LOOSE MONEY LENDING STANDARDS. It was the fact that people willfully accepted to take on more debt to maintain their living standard. They were growing their living standard on the backs of debt because income was no longer providing growth to improve their lot. They were going backwards. Even though they were working harder and longer than ever, their income kept becoming less and less of value. Why? Because the top took too much. So it’s INCOME INEQUALITY that is TO BLAME for the 2008 crises. You can’t blame the borrowers. They were just trying to keep their standard of living in place any which way they could. It’s the damn scumbags at the top that sold them out by taking the lower rank’s share of economic growth. Do you actually think they can keep taking all this economic growth from the bottom and the economy keeps functioning? Come on, people! It’s not rocket science if you allow yourself to think about it with an open mind.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And I know it’s crisis. I’m typing as fast as I can here. Concentrate on the ideas, and not grammar mistakes.

  60. LurksMcGee says:

    Troll Feeder,

    I agree with your 100k elevation analysis. While people despise the top, they certainly innovate to push us further.

  61. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    “The existence of a robust middle class is a fluke in the history of mankind.”

    I don’t disagree. We’ve discussed this here time and time again. It was only possible due to the huge advantage the U.S. had after WWII since we owned manufacturing as the rest of the world rebuilt.

    But I would also argue that the growth of lobbies have reached the point where a middle class here will never happen again. When the Dems in the Jersey assembly vote against a law requiring doctors to reveal if they are out of network before performing billable work, you KNOW it’s game over. When the Dems in Jersey passed a law that makes all presidential candidates reveal their taxes to be on the ballot in NJ (by the way, we were first, but certainly not the last) and the Republican minority leader pleaded to expand it to themselves. The Dems refused to extend it to themselves. Then there is the states refusal to go after double-dippers. And now, the incredibly successful 2% max arbitration reward is about to expire. Mark my words. When Murphy gets into office and reverses all of these caps and makes whole the pension, this state is SUNK. And it will be the country next. It will take a while, but it will happen.

  62. chicagofinance says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bARjABDqok&feature=youtu.be

    chicagofinance says:
    June 20, 2017 at 11:20 am
    The Climate Wars’ Damage to Science
    The great thing about science is that it’s self-correcting. The good drives out the bad, because experiments get replicated and hypotheses tested — or so I used to think. Now, thanks largely to climate science, I see bad ideas can persist for decades, and surrounded by myrmidons of furious defenders they become intolerant dogmas

  63. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Everything listed here, can be sourced to income inequality. Income inequality by its very nature is the transfer of almost all POWER to the top. That’s why everything is becoming the way it is. The more income inequality takes a hold of the economy, the more the power becomes concentrated at the top. As the power is concentrated at the top, the powers that be reward themselves at everyone else’s expense. It’s not their fault, they are humans, and guided by human nature. Greed is a big part of human nature, and it’s only natural that they will continue down this destructive path of rewarding themselves at the expense of everyone else. Wish we had checks and balances in place for this, but we don’t. We believe profit and the free market will solve it all. Sure, it def will solve it all when it crashes in a huge ball of flames taking everyone down with it.

    We suck….smart enough to know the problems, but can’t control our inner greed.

    “But I would also argue that the growth of lobbies have reached the point where a middle class here will never happen again. When the Dems in the Jersey assembly vote against a law requiring doctors to reveal if they are out of network before performing billable work, you KNOW it’s game over. When the Dems in Jersey passed a law that makes all presidential candidates reveal their taxes to be on the ballot in NJ (by the way, we were first, but certainly not the last) and the Republican minority leader pleaded to expand it to themselves. The Dems refused to extend it to themselves. Then there is the states refusal to go after double-dippers. And now, the incredibly successful 2% max arbitration reward is about to expire. Mark my words. When Murphy gets into office and reverses all of these caps and makes whole the pension, this state is SUNK. And it will be the country next. It will take a while, but it will happen.”

  64. Troll Feeder says:

    Steamturd, I don’t fault the lobbies. Everybody in a democracy has the right to express their positions, no matter how self-serving. It’s the politicians that choose to write and cash the checks. This will never change.

    Pumpkin, the outsourcing of risk to the general public – in 2008 or otherwise – is not by accident, it is by design and will not likely change. The sooner you accept that, the less time you will waste gnashing your teeth. The stock market doesn’t exist so people can build wealth, it exists so companies can outsource risk.

  65. NJCoast says:

    The building going on in our shore town is mind boggling. The house we sold in 2004, which was built in 1997, has been totally gutted , the tile roof, windows , stucco and framing removed. Essentially demolishing, then reframing the house one section at a time so they don’t have to comply with the updated construction setbacks. At the planning board meeting the owners said it needed updating and they needed more interior space. The home was 4700 sq ft. They removed all the balconies and porches and it is now a giant cube. It was great to see that my building materials held up, the sheathing under the stucco was perfect and the stainless steel X-bracing still shining. We built the house to hold up to hurricanes with 2 x 6’s throughout. It’s all being replaced with 2 x 4’s and composite sheathing.

  66. 3b says:

    Steam and one of the ways Murphy is going to fund the pensions is to push the burden onto the towns and they will have to increase property taxes. Murphy s plan is to increase economic activity and NJ s tax burden won’t be such a burden!! Some fricking plan!! I guess he will just increase economic activity even more to lessen that increased burden.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Article does a good job of explaining the 2008 crisis problem as related to income inequality.

    “Why did people want to borrow so much? Why did the ratio of household debt to income soar to unprecedented heights in the pre-recession days?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/nov/22/income-equality-killing-capitalism

  68. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Another awful Pumpkin day, giant blisters oozing Pumpkin pus.

  69. 3b says:

    Lobbyists influencing politicians to do their bidding at the expense of the people is wrong. Of course they are going to cash the checks!!!

  70. chicagofinance says:

    I am not saying it is Pat, but she used to live in NJ, moved down to Western Md and continued to post. She eventually became bored with us, and instead of alternating between herself and RE101, she started to exclusively post as RE101. According to grim, the IP addresses and ISP’s for Pat, RE101 and Gourd do not match up…..the point about Gourd that is so exasperating is the volume and persistence….why? on so many levels, regardless, if the core intent is to destroy the blog, then it likely is the only understandable motive………

    3b says:
    June 20, 2017 at 12:09 pm
    Fast I was just curious what makes you think pumps is a woman.

  71. Nomad says:

    Steam,

    That whole thing with Citizens United further skewed the influence of big money in politics but you already knew that. Looks at what is going on in GA as we post. $25mm spent on this one race, seriously?

    You think all the volume, smoke and dust up since Jan 20th is coordinated cover both both sides of the trade?

    Wage inflation? How about looking at labor force participation rate.

    Chi, what % of portfolio do you recommend in equities for clients you like?

    BTW – looks like Amazon didn’t get off unloading on the grocery industry so they tee’d up this one:

    https://www.amazon.com/b/ref=tbyb_surl_lm?node=16122413011&tag=googhydr-20&hvadid=201246903820&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=4528912856498620198&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=e&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_329490uibd_e&hvtargid=kwd-310529098308#

  72. Bystander says:

    No, dipsh*t, it was loose lending standards combined with irrational greed/naivety pushed my media house fluffers. Some of us actually worked in RE sales, mortgage orgination or securitization side. I supported Ellie Mae Encompass integration for two years leading up to collapse. I saw data and they had so many ninja loan products and arm loan traps it was disgusting. This was all to channel more loans into MBS. No one gave a sh*t, not the real estate agents, originators, due diligence firms, rating agencies, banks or government agencies. Borrower quality went down tubes yet they kept pumping away for years. Borrowers were simply the pawns to be played in deadly game of musical chairs. Even many borrowers knew it yet played a hand anyway. It was irresistible. Clueless yet again.

  73. 3b says:

    Chgo all the years I have been here and I never knew pat and r e investor were the same people. I guess I missed that. Although I was gone for some time and perhaps that is when that info was first revealed.

  74. Bystander says:

    ..and spare us the “whoa is me” tales about people trying to maintain living standards. We all talked with family, friends, coworkers, acquaintances during 2003 to 2007. I would say 10% bought within 3x salary and 90% went 4 to 5 times bc they wanted a dream house or thought it was easy investment with current ARM programs. We saw it, we lived it. People were plain arrogant and stupid particularly in NY metro area.

  75. 3b says:

    Bystander: So true. We saw it as well. I urged caution and people told me I didn’t know what I was talking about with 20 plus years on the street at the time how could I possibly know more than the teachers doctors lawyers salesmen and others who told me I was wrong. There was those of us who knew it would end in tears and it did.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How did the bubble get so large?

    This was Greenspan trying to grow the economy without growing wages. Dot com bubble went directly into housing bubble. Both were attempts by Greenspan and the elite to grow the economy not with wages, but by having the middle class invest into assets. They thought they could replace wage growth with asset appreciation and everything will be okay.

    I repeat, at the heart of crisis, was the problem of income inequality. How does one grow the economy without wages of the consumer growing it? You can’t. They tried and almost took down our economy with it. Now they are screwed trying to fix this mess, can’t bring back all those jobs you shipped off in the name of profit. Now our country is hurting because of it. Great job.

    And in the short term, the top 30% of the economy will do great, but after this next boom, if they don’t fix this income inequality, we are going to have a very hard time recovering from the epic crash.

    Bystander says:
    June 20, 2017 at 2:26 pm
    ..and spare us the “whoa is me” tales about people trying to maintain living standards. We all talked with family, friends, coworkers, acquaintances during 2003 to 2007. I would say 10% bought within 3x salary and 90% went 4 to 5 times bc they wanted a dream house or thought it was easy investment with current ARM programs. We saw it, we lived it. People were plain arrogant and stupid particularly in NY metro area.

  77. jcer says:

    side effect of easy money, cheap money blows bubbles, housing is one area where regular people can borrow and participate. Gambling with OPM, people were making money the downside was the banks holding the bag, so there were a lot of participants. Greenspan and every other fed chief is providing money in the hopes that it will stimulate growth. The unintended consequence is inflation, deflation or worse.

  78. Bystander says:

    My personal favorite was a guy in Brigadoon that my wife met. This is circa 2006. He was maybe 30 and recently promoted VP at Merill Lynch. His wife worked some media job in NJ and they had one year old. Nice enough couple. They invite us over for dinner. We arrive at house and it is really nice colonial (not huge maybe 1900 sq ft) on smaller lot on Warren or Shadowlawn area. Anyway, we are talking finances and he tells me that he took out interest only loan on place and he is smart because he simply uses his Merrill bonus every year to pay down mortgage and his career is only going up. I go home and see he paid 1 million for place. I just had to shake my head. I have thought of him but unfortunately forgot his name but can’t imagine what 2008 was like. But he was just trying to maintain his living standard..bah hah

  79. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    This crash will be EPIC. All we did after the financial crisis was reward those who took the greatest risks. How the ratings agencies got away with knowingly lying is beyond reproach. I should be a prepper. Instead, I’ll be a mover.

  80. 3b says:

    Bystander : also had someone tell me a100k plus kitchen remodel was an investment they were going to get it all back when they sold in 20 years!!

  81. Juice Box says:

    Bye Bye Shopping Malls.

    Amazon Prime Wardrobe box

    Buyers will pick at least three items from over a million Amazon Fashion options.
    Once the Amazon Prime Wardrobe box arrives, you can try on the clothes for up to seven days and return them free of charge.

  82. 3b says:

    Anyone familiar with supplemental dental insurance plans?

  83. Not Dental 3b says:

    3B.

    The issue with dental supplemental is how they defined what they pay. Dental insurance got trimmed by insurance companies, along with vision before health insurance.

    So Dental generally bifurcates into either non-insurance accepting (they give you an itemized statement for you to send to your insurance) dentists that pamper, upsell, and cheat you, or dental mills that take every insurance and cheat the insurance companies.

    So X Procedure – Dentist charges $250. Insurance says it should be $100 and your coverage is 80% or $80. Dental supplemental DO NOT COVER the difference between $80 and $250. They cover the difference between $80 and $100.

    Only reason to have it. Make sure you read the very fine print very carefully is as follows. You have a lot of kids with really bad teeth and they love sugar and teeth are crooked. You are going to take them to a Dental Mill place, that bills what insurance pays. Your dental coverage has you paying 50%-80% based on procedures. The very fine print says they will cover the balance of the those procedures.

    This is the only way it makes sense. Same applies to vision/eyecare insurance.

  84. 3b says:

    Thanks not dental. It would only be for me are my wife. Need some work done and thought it might make sense. After your explanation it does not seem compelling. And would use be correct in assuming that a dental mill place you get what you pay for?

  85. Nomad says:

    The home mortgages after the bubble burst were for the most part recourse, no? So even if someone files BK, doesn’t the mortgage day stay with the borrower? On the subject of debt, the auto industry looks like its ready to crumble starting in the fall with a few years of blood to follow. One analyst said up to 50% drop in value of used vehicles in the next 3-4 years if memory serves me correctly. Said analyst I believe was BOAML.

  86. chicagofinance says:

    Not trying to be coy……not enough information…..

    also, non-equity exposure is really a creative endeavor for the last 5-7 years…….

    remember that I am a financial planner who offers asset management advice…..I am not just an investor without any context….

    Nomad says:
    June 20, 2017 at 2:11 pm
    Chi, what % of portfolio do you recommend in equities for clients you like?

  87. chicagofinance says:

    To both bystander & 3b:
    yeah the worst part was the lectures from people about real estate investment……

    Bystander says:
    June 20, 2017 at 2:26 pm
    ..and spare us the “whoa is me” tales about people trying to maintain living standards. We all talked with family, friends, coworkers, acquaintances during 2003 to 2007. I would say 10% bought within 3x salary and 90% went 4 to 5 times bc they wanted a dream house or thought it was easy investment with current ARM programs. We saw it, we lived it. People were plain arrogant and stupid particularly in NY metro area.

    3b says:
    June 20, 2017 at 2:32 pm
    Bystander: So true. We saw it as well. I urged caution and people told me I didn’t know what I was talking about with 20 plus years on the street at the time how could I possibly know more than the teachers doctors lawyers salesmen and others who told me I was wrong. There was those of us who knew it would end in tears and it did.

  88. No One says:

    One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the people who need rational financial advice the most are the people who get the most upset when one offers it.

    I remember back in 99 at some Christmas party full of Wall St and IT people there were people agreeing with each other that diversification was dumb and there were only 3 key stocks to own: Cisco, Sun Microsystems, and JDS Uniphase. When I suggested broad global diversification and concern about tech stock valuation, they seethed with disdain.

  89. 3b says:

    Chgo Yep remember those lectures well!

  90. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @JuddLegum

    People who’ve hired lawyers:

    1. The Attorney General

    2. The VP

    3. The President

    4. The President’s Son-In-Law

    5. The President’s Lawyer

  91. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one, not trolling you, just looking to debate to find the truth.

    You basically made a joke of the neo-Keynesian school of economic thought. Basically making it sound like anybody that thinks like this is a fool. So please tell me how the market is self-regulating? You know I’m a neo-Keynesian and believe at times(like present day) that the market must be tweeked, so I’m interested to hear your critique.

    “Another point of departure of the school from classical Keynesian theory was that it did not see the market as possessing the capacity to naturally restore itself to equilibrium. For this reason, state regulations were imposed on the capitalist economy. Classic Keynesian theory only proposes sporadic and indirect state intervention.

    The reasons the Neo-Keynesians identified that the market was not self-regulating were manifold. First, monopolies may exist, which means the market is not competitive in a pure sense. This also means that certain companies have discretionary powers to set prices and may not wish to lower or raise prices during periods of fluctuations to meet demands from the public. Labor markets are also imperfect. Second, trade unions and other companies may act according to individual circumstances, resulting in a stagnation in wages that does not reflect the actual conditions of the economy. Third, real interest rates may depart from natural interest rates as monetary authorities adjust the rates to avoid temporary instability in the macroeconomy.”

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I also believe there is no such thing as perfect. I do not think it is possible for a capitalist based economic system to fix itself like magic with this thing called the free market….some invincible hand guiding everything into place in the most efficient manner. No way, no how. In my mind, it’s just not possible.

    I don’t believe in this day and age that we are dealing with the same capitalism of 200 years ago or even 60 years ago. Computers, machines, and AI have changed everything. They are literally replacing low level work performed by the bottom 50%. of the population. So for the first time, we don’t need all these workers anymore, these machines are killing low level workers. Sure new “high skilled” jobs are created, but can the bottom 50% perform in these positions? So we hit a major dilemma. We are applying an economic system(capitalism), that is based on 95% labor participation rate to divide up resources in an efficient manner, to a current economic system that no longer needs this many workers due to the introduction of automation.

    So what is the answer? What do we do with such a significant part of the population no longer needed to perform labor, but are still needed to consume? How is it that you get the capital in their hands if it’s not through labor?

  93. abeiz says:

    Juice,
    I’ve been prime “wardrobing” for years. Why? Simple. I’d rather pay $7.95 than have to drive to Paramus and deal with the parking and rt4. Matter of fact, there’s a box with 11 ExOfficio items in the living room. Nine items are going back.

    re: Pat/Re101/Pumpkin
    I too wish the old guard would come back. I have been here on and off since 2007 – I think? – and consider this dumb Pumpkin schtick to have single highhandedly ruined this blog with his stream of consciousness sh!t. It’s not clever, coherent of funny. Pumpkin = Eric Harris & Dylan Klebold.

    Nomad,
    Explain to me how a “50% drop in the value of used cars” will happen just because an analyst said so? You’d need 07/08 event type manufacturer incentives squared to achieve that sort of secondary market abandonment.

  94. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    chifi – Applying Occam’s razor, I’m leaning more toward mental illness as the causative factor. Also, his constant yearn for validation and affection from older men indicate big-time Daddy issues. When he revealed that his Dad is deported and separated from the family for his criminal activity, the mush of seeds and pulp that is the defective pumpkin mind came clearly into focus for me.

    the point about Gourd that is so exasperating is the volume and persistence….why? on so many levels, regardless, if the core intent is to destroy the blog, then it likely is the only understandable motive………

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I came here for the debate. It’s older men who are set in their ways of thinking. So it was a prime place for me to debate. Most of the people my age think just like me. They don’t believe for a second that the free market solves all. Maybe my generation is gullible due to youth, but they don’t accept the old conservative way of thinking about economics. Maybe you guys are right, and this current model is the only answer, but I highly doubt it. I look at the old economic schools as primitive way of looking at economics due to the nature of older simpler economies that relied specifically on human labor to produce.

    I also came here because of negative sentiment with real estate at a time I thought real estate was ripe for the picking (2012/13). People like fast eddie calling me an idiot for pointing out that it was a prime time to buy fueled my ambition to prove him wrong. So it became a daily mission to prove that I was right and you are wrong. That’s why I always state where is my validation for being right after being called an idiot for so long? Time proved I’m right, and the least you could do is man up and give credit to me instead of doubling down and insulting my intelligence even more.

  96. D-FENS says:

    3b/Steam…please take your next dose of antidepressants before posting again. Good lord you guys are pessimistic.

  97. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    QED

    That’s why I always state where is my validation for being right after being called an idiot for so long?

  98. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Remember after Sandy how JJ used to mention often is brand new Denali? Brand new Denali in the driveway, pimped out new Denali that, etc.? Google maps now has an updated streetview of his hou from 2017. I don’t think he ever mentioned that it was a GMC Acadia Denali. Not that that’s not pretty good car. It also wasn’t “brand new” as the redesigned 2013’s were already out. His is a 2011 or 2012.

  99. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. I just found a two week old JJ comment online. He was commenting on a house that is for sale in his (Sandy damaged) town. His comment on the house:

    Ocassionally[sic] oceanfront

  100. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (combo clot/JJ edition):
    WACO, Texas — A Texas woman who police said packed a loaded pistol in her vag!na has been sentenced to probation after she pleaded guilty to drug possession.

    Ashley Cecilia Castaneda has been sentenced to 10 years on deferred probation for methamphetamine possession. The 33-year-old Waco woman also was fined $2,500.

    Waco police say that when Castaneda was arrested in 2015, she told officers on her way to McLennan County Jail that she was packing a loaded handgun in her birth canal. Police Sgt. W. Patrick Swanton said a jail matron performed a cavity search and found the gun, right where Castaneda said she had hid it.

    Castaneda’s attorney, Seth Sutton, denied the story as impossible, but Swanton said the police department stood by it.

  101. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Bezos: “Alexa, buy me something from Whole Foods.”

    Alexa: “Buying Whole Foods.”

    Bezos: “Sh1t!”

  102. 3b says:

    Dfens sorry. I am usually a very optimistic person in general. But when it comes to the sate of our country and the state that NJ is in there is really nothing to be optimistic about.

  103. 3b says:

    Pumps your economic beliefs contradict your rah rah real estate beliefs.

  104. chicagofinance says:

    I don’t know about a 50% drop in the value of used cars…….however, there is certainly as super-soft market for used larger sized sedans that are not luxury…..the reason is that low gas prices, coupled with the expectation that they will persist (thank you fracking), has stoked demand for SUV’s and crossovers. If you are in the market for domestic large sedans et al. you will find a good market on a relative basis……..

    abeiz says:
    June 20, 2017 at 11:17 pm
    Nomad,
    Explain to me how a “50% drop in the value of used cars” will happen just because an analyst said so? You’d need 07/08 event type manufacturer incentives squared to achieve that sort of secondary market abandonment.

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I try my best to be on the “right side of things.” Back in 2003, I would get into constant heated arguments with people that told me real estate can’t go down, that I was stupid for not taking equity out of my house and buying more properties (my property was worth 600,000 at one point in the bubble). I told them that they are giving terrible advice that would cost me everything. Told them it can’t keep going up this fast, without pulling back, but they just thought I was a 23 year old idiot. Then when 2011 came around, I was telling anyone that would listen to take out as much of a loan you could get and buy in a good location. It will be almost guaranteed money, but once again, I was called an idiot, but this time by the same people that supported me back in the bubble era.

    So pessimists are right when it busts and optimists are right when it’s on the up up. I like to take the middle ground and take the “right” side of the cycle. If you understand it’s a cycle due to the nature of capitalism, it’s much better to make calls based on trying to figure out what part of the cycle we are in.

    So the pessimists on this board tapping themselves on the shoulder that they were right about the bust, better also call themselves idiots for missing the bottom. I put my money where my mouth is. I bought close to the bottom on my first home before the bubble blew up, and I bought at the bottom before the next run up at the end of 2011. There was indeed luck involved, since anything can happen at any time and change the course of the economy, but I also had the intelligence to know when to risk buying a home.

  106. abeiz says:

    for Pumps, everyone else will probably have to watch on their commute home.

    Interview with Paterson developer Charles Florio

    http://www.northjersey.com/media/cinematic/video/103033910/interview-with-paterson-developer-charles-florio/

  107. 3b says:

    Chgo the article I read which I believe may have been the same one attributes the coming drop to a huge amount of cars coming off lease over the next couple of years.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, that’s what I read too. Huge amount of leases coming to the market.

  109. abeiz says:

    On the topic of cars: I take over other peoples leases via lease trading websites. They put the money down, they pay dealer fees, they pay to list on the service, they are hurting to get out of the commitment for one reason or another. I come in, step into the shoes of the impulsive buyer and enjoy the vehicle for the duration of the lease. Oftentimes, I seek additional concessions that lower my monthly payment further. I’ve taken over cars where the lessee traded in his old car to lower capcost on the lease and I simply take over lowered payments (!!).

    I believe I’m on my fifth car this way. Part of the thrill is to see what’s on the market around the time the current whip is up. Once I find and negotiate, I tell the lease that I will take over as of such and such date. The last guy even drove me to the dealership to return car A then back to his house to pick up car B.

    I haven’t spent a single dollar on car maintenance (aside from wiper fluid) in five + years.

    Figures a guy with JJ’s taste would be driving an Acadia. How the heck did you get his geolocation?

  110. PumpkinFace says:

    Which of the sites do you recommend for taking over the lease?

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    JJ is real? I always assumed he was a fictional character for laughs.

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And that’s a shrewd move (taking over leases). Two thumbs up.

  113. Nomad says:

    Auto Industry – John Murphy was the analyst who published the original article. I could not find it but he shows probabilities of used car value declines. Part of the issue is uptick in # of cars coming back off lease. The dealer I use usually has used cars on his lot he took back from leases and I can tell this when I look at the car fax. Now, a lot more used coming from the auctions and I think its because with a set residual value insured, the only way the dealer gets a lower price is to go to the auction vs buying it from the manufacturers captive finance. Maybe someone has more knowledge on the mechanics of the dealer buying off lease vehicles, residual value insurance etc and can chime in.

    Unit volume off a bit in ’17 but incentives / vehicle up. Prices also up because of more tech. Around 6 or so years ago, 11% of vehicles bought with 72 or 84 mo financing, today its over 33% and lots of negative equity issues.

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20170411/RETAIL01/170419955/falling-used-car-prices-could-hurt-new-sales-analyst-warns

  114. Nomad says:

    Chi – I was asking in very general terms but I guess what I was getting at is the market is due and trying to get a handle on the magnitude of the drop for me at least is the big question. Pull out some of the stocks that drive indexes and the pic looks different. Cheap money and share buybacks, flood of money into index funds have pushed it too high in my opinion but I am an amateur unlike you who is a full time pro. The other thing that concerns me is the labor force participation rate. Unemployment claims show a slice of the pie and AI, I believe will create less jobs than it takes away.

  115. Nomad says:

    Abeiz, have you ever had a problem when you turn in the car where there is damage that the original person leasing the vehicle tries to pin on you? From a personal safety standpoint, how do you know who you are dealing with before you go to their house or they come to yours?

    I like the idea, have visited the websites for this but never found outrageous deals but also never got to the point of negotiations. I have also never lease a car with anything out of pocket other than first month and maybe a few hundred for registration and plates. I no longer lease but would if an extraordinary deal came along. Depending on the brand, the price you can buy for at the end of the lease is below retail value (or was a few years ago and perhaps never again based on my post above about declining used car values).

  116. Yo! says:

    Murphy at Bank of America has been telling anyone who will listen a tsunami of cars are coming off leases soon and used car prices are falling, but he never said they’ll drop by 50%. Here is a blurb from one of his recent reports.

    “In our view, used prices are likely only going to continue to decline as supply in the secondary market increases with the surge in off-lease volumes, which will widen the spread between new and used pricing, and likely cause a shift in demand away from increasingly less affordable new vehicles toward increasingly more affordable used vehicles.”

  117. 3b says:

    Yo I saw the article I believe on market watch and I am almost positive it said 25 to 50 percent drop.

  118. Yo! says:

    Morgan Stanley wrote in a March report, “used prices could fall between 25 and 50% over the next 4-5 years.”

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Give me the fang. When they are calling for it to fall, it will rise. Just like they have been calling the end of this bull run for years. Feel bad for the people that missed out on the run because someone told them it’s too risky and should wait for the correction.

    My take on the American tech giants, just buy it. If you think in 10 years they will take on more of the American economic pie, why would you not buy right now? Why play games trying to beat this.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/fang-weary-investors-see-cheaper-alternative-in-emerging-markets

  120. chicagofinance says:

    trying to get around spam filer

    In the vein you view a house purchase in the context of your life, invest in the same way…..if you don’t intend to retire in the next 5 years or so, then I would hes!tate being too cute trying to call a top……if you have a target allocation for U.S. based large cap tech equities (I assume based on your high level description), then adjust them until you feel more comfortable…..

    Nomad says:
    June 21, 2017 at 10:46 am
    Chi – I was asking in very general terms but I guess what I was getting at is the market is due and trying to get a handle on the magnitude of the drop for me at least is the big question. Pull out some of the stocks that drive indexes and the pic looks different. Cheap money and share buybacks, flood of money into index funds have pushed it too high in my opinion but I am an amateur unlike you who is a full time pro. The other thing that concerns me is the labor force participation rate. Unemployment claims show a slice of the pie and AI, I believe will create less jobs than it takes away.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    that said, probably the best opportunity right now is either industries/companies that have been assumed dead/oversold by the tech romp, and such impacts won’t immediately materialize……..

  122. chicagofinance says:

    .caveat, if something is out of favor, you can also assume it is out of favor for a reason (value-trap?)…..there is also a good chance that financials are at a good entry point…….

  123. chicagofinance says:

    don’t just pull money out of the market without a destination…..you should have a specific alternative use for it that has a long-term justification in your portfolio……

  124. D-FENS says:

    oh…

    @DailyCaller
    Ossoff Voters Impossible To Reach Because They Live With Their Parents, Democratic Organizer Says http://trib.al/VMGCZK6

  125. D-FENS says:

    Double oh…

    McDonald’s hits all-time high as Wall Street cheers replacement of cashiers with kiosks

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/20/mcdonalds-hits-all-time-high-as-wall-street-cheers-replacement-of-cashiers-with-kiosks.html

    Fight for $15?

  126. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, yesterday this race was called a toss-up in the media, and then the GOP won by 4%.

    D-FENS says:
    June 21, 2017 at 12:33 pm
    oh…

    @DailyCaller
    Ossoff Voters Impossible To Reach Because They Live With Their Parents, Democratic Organizer Says http://trib.al/VMGCZK6

  127. The Great Pumpkin says:

    D, that’s why we need to rethink this economic system. Luddites might have their day. Wait long enough, and eventually chances are you will be right at some point even if it takes 200 years. All I’m seeing more and more of is the ability to produce at high levels with limited human labor.

  128. Formerly Essex says:

    Peak Liquor??

    George Clooney is saying adios to Casamigos.

    The 56-year-old Academy Award-winning actor just sold his tequila company to British spirits seller Diageo for a cool $1 billion, the Daily News has confirmed.

    Clooney, who owns the booze brand with Cindy Crawford’s husband Rande Gerber and real estate developer Michael Meldman, is reportedly staying with the company after it’s purchased.

    “If you asked us four years ago if we had a billion dollar company, I don’t think we would have said yes,” Clooney said in a statement.

    George Clooney goes to great lengths for coffee
    “This reflects Diageo’s belief in our company and our belief in Diageo. We’re not going anywhere. We’ll still be very much a part of Casamigos. Starting with a shot tonight. Maybe two.”

    Casamigos, which loosely translates to “house of friends,” started up four years ago as a passion project between Gerber and Clooney who created a private collection to share with friends and family. The label went public in 2013 when the team had to get a license to continue making tequila.

    Diageo will initially fork over $700 million, with the potential for another $300 million based on Casamigo’s performance over the next 10 years. The deal is slated to close by the end of 2017.

  129. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just look at how food production was taken over by technology. Barely need any human labor to produce massive amounts of food. Why would any other field be safe from this? For all we know, you will have robots cutting your lawn, putting a new roof on your house with some material that won’t need to be replaced for 200 years. Some device that you put on your head and gives you whatever hair cut you program it to do, also will style your hair every morning for you in less than a minute( I should invent this, but feel bad about putting all these barbers/hair stylists out of business). World is changing fast, so fast, it’s impossible to keep up with all the new tech.

  130. JJ fanboy says:

    Formerly essex,is that an onion article?

  131. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    abeiz – When jj went missing after Sandy, I decided to take a Saturday morning in 2012 and review all of the information he volunteered over the years and put it together. I just put it all in a matrix and solved. Once I got close there were very few houses that it could be and I just checked them one by one until his purchase price, date, and tax grievings matched. I sometimes wonder if I chased him away because I hinted a couple times that I knew exactly who he is.

    Pumps was even simpler, but that’s because he’s so simple. Unfortunately, Pumps didn’t go away when I found him out.

    Figures a guy with JJ’s taste would be driving an Acadia. How the heck did you get his geolocation?

  132. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is annoying. Guy starts a passion project and four years later is selling it for 1 billion. Can I go puke now, perfect example of how life is not fair. I guess if Grim was “George Clooney,” he would be close to selling his liquor project for a billion.

    “George Clooney is saying adios to Casamigos.”

  133. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    I must be an open book.

    That dumb second tier list is just a list of countries from the least to the most negroes.

  134. JJ fanboy says:

    Wow. $700 million with a possible additional $300 million over the next decade

  135. D-FENS says:

    Mandating a $15 minimum wage accelerates the trend. As does mandating that employees working more than 37 1/2 hours a week be given healthcare by their employers.

    The problem is not that the job’s won’t exist…it’s that employees are too expensive. They’re too expensive because government mandates have gone too far…these were once jobs that teenagers had after school…not careers.

  136. 3b says:

    Pumps all of your postings today contradicts your rah rah real life state cheer leading. Just saying!

  137. The Great Pumpkin says:

    That’s because I was not trying to hide anything. And I don’t know why the mortgage information was wrong, but that was one of the few things you were wrong about. Maybe you are right, and my wife is robbing me blind, but that was one of the few things you were wrong about me. And stop saying I live on a highway, you know it’s not true.

    “Pumps was even simpler, but that’s because he’s so simple. Unfortunately, Pumps didn’t go away when I found him out.”

  138. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    He used demographics and cycles to make his fortune, just like you, Pumps, just like you.

    Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

    This is annoying. Guy starts a passion project and four years later is selling it for 1 billion. Can I go puke now, perfect example of how life is not fair.

  139. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:
  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are you serious? Those jobs were gone no matter what they were paying. Human labor can not keep up with the cost and production of machines. It’s over for us, read the writing on the wall, human labor is going the way of the dinosaur. You will only need highly skilled individuals to still keep human society going.

    “The problem is not that the job’s won’t exist…it’s that employees are too expensive. They’re too expensive because government mandates have gone too far…these were once jobs that teenagers had after school…not careers.”

  141. 3b says:

    Pumps I meant to say contradicts your rah rah real estate views.

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, I still hold those views of the real estate market and overall economy. What scares the living sh!t out of me is what happens after the next decade? The next crash will make 2008 look like “good times” in comparison. Population growth is going to top out. Most of the population will not be able to find jobs. Enjoy the good times, because when this next crash comes, it will be epic. It will be what should have happened in 2008.

  143. D-FENS says:

    This is relevant as politicians in our area are now quoting the Mayor of Seattle’s study to support their position supporting $15/hr minimum wage.

    @Mike_Saltsman
    New @ForbesOpinion: @UW is studying impact of $15 wage. So why did @OfficeofMayor request a separate biased report?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelsaltsman/2017/06/21/the-problems-with-a-new-study-on-seattles-15-minimum-wage/#5383d286156a

  144. jcer says:

    pumps human beings are far from obsolete, but when the economics skews so far in one direction…..machine vs. $15 an hour “minimum wage employee” the value proposition isn’t there. Humans are remarkably better at certain things than machines, rote routine tasks are not it.

  145. 3b says:

    Pumps if that is your belief than it does not bode well for your house long term.

  146. Juice Box says:

    re: “This is annoying”

    Pumps that tequila edeal is right out of HBO show Entourage, so don’t believ the hype or price point. 100% agave tequilas go under $20 these days. Clooney’s brand is way over priced.

    They created a “company” and used an established importer for a while to figure out the game, then hired the talent away and then became the sole importer. They are sourced from a third-party distiller NOM 1416 and are heavily dependent on Star power for their marketing.

    The distiller NOM 1416 (it’s on the bottle by law) is the same distillery that makes well-known brands Avion (the “Entourage” tequila) and others.

    There are a few brands 100% agave that all taste the same. It is all about they hype.

  147. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    You know what will be nice? Laying in a hammock in Costa Rica without a thing to worry about except what the weather will be like the following day. Sounds nice. Doesn’t it?

    https://www.propertiesincostarica.com/properties/quepos/for_sale/splendid-and-unique-home.html

  148. Fast Eddie says:

    I’d rather deal with machines than humans who:

    a) can’t identify a half dollar.
    b) can’t formulate proper sentence structure while attempting to converse.
    c) hand you coins, bills and a receipt in a ball OR balance 90 cents worth of coins on one or two bills and expect you to grab it without the coinage rolling all over the place.

  149. Fast Eddie says:

    Cankles,

    Can you get good pizza and bagels in Costa Rica? ;)

  150. jcer says:

    Eddie, that’s just it the employee making minimum wage at a McJob generally doesn’t add any value. The truth is people generally have disdain for Kiosks and want to order from a person, in European McDonalds you can walk right up to the machine or wait in line and most people are waiting in line. I tried one of those Kiosks over there and it sucks as much as their food does(as a side not European McDonalds is the cheapest place to get an espresso and they have paper cups to take away). At the end of the day your average McDonald’s worker gets your order wrong and gives you an attitude, what’s the point, bring in the robots. Build a good ordering app, put some tablets in the store and have one employee oversee it and collect physical cash payments. The implementation cost is not huge, commodity hardware, and a backend and it’s game over. Cooking is next, but what is really cooked at mcdonalds anyway. As far as I’m concerned reduce the number of employees and increase the quality of your employees by increasing wages.

  151. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Juice, that’s what makes me sick, it’s nothing special but because it’s associated with Clooney, he gets to laugh all the way to the bank. Like wtf? Could imagine the smirk on his face. This is where capitalism can be considered a joke.

  152. ccb223 says:

    Hi guys – long time no talk. Like the lease takeover idea, found this:

    http://www.bankrate.com/loans/auto-loans/lease-takeover-pros-and-cons-of-car-lease-assumption/

  153. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, it’s nearly impossible to make any real estate predictions that far out. All I know is that the world population is having less kids the more educated they become. Can’t ignore this trend. So population growth won’t get us out of this mess when the economy busts. America demographics are supposed to be much better than the rest of the world, but it will not be favorable after 2030. Obviously, things can change and tons of immigrants come to the U.S. to keep our population growing, but it’s not looking good 2030 on.

    This will be uncharted territory, trying to grow the economy with stagnant population growth, or worse, negative population growth. Negative population growth will put real estate in a path of dangerous headwinds. Some towns might be abandoned causing huge losses in real estate. No one knows what will exactly happen, but demographics will be a challenge for most of this century.

    3b says:
    June 21, 2017 at 2:28 pm
    Pumps if that is your belief than it does not bode well for your house long term.

  154. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    JJ used to tout lease takeovers (along with bra and panty takeovers).

  155. Fast Eddie says:

    jcer,

    We discuss the term, “value added” at my firm regularly. It’s not enough to put the peg in the slot, one must be learning and contributing in new and different ways consistently. I don’t expect a high school or college kid to have the experience and wisdom to realize it nor does McDonalds, et al., expect it. If a mechanical process can be automated, it will. One can’t be a snowflake forever; one must aspire to be an avalanche!

  156. NJGator says:

    From the Annals of the Ridiculous…Only in Montklair Edition.

    Montclair won’t consider outsourcing public works/sanitation employees to save taxpayers money. Public Works is now proposing bonding money for drones…to supervise the contractors who are performing the services that should be provided by the employees of the Public Works Department.

    Montclair Council casts wary eye on drone use

    Montclair is considering adding a new device to its toolbox: drones. But not all the Township Council is on-board yet.

    Several council members reacted with skepticism and questions on Tuesday night when it was disclosed that buying drones was part of a $3.475 million bond ordinance that the local governing body was voting on at its meeting.

    The council adopted the ordinance, which will pay for town-wide capital improvements, but it remains to be seen if any drones are purchased in light of the issues raised at the session. For example, Councilman at-Large Bob Russo said it should be a policy decision made by the council, not by any municipal department, whether of not the township should use drones.

    Several New Jersey municipalities have taken action to restrict the use of drones within their borders, including Garfield and Toms River.

    Fourth Ward Councilwoman Renee Baskerville, who abstained from voting on the bond issuance, brought up the drone issue after reiterating her dismay that the various municipal departments heads didn’t do individual presentations to the council this year about their capital-budget needs. The bond ordinance mentions the drones but doesn’t break out exactly how much would be spent to buy them. Baskerville wanted to know who had decided what was included in the bond ordinance and what the drones would be used for.

    Mayor Robert Jackson said that the municipal public works department was considering using drones to inspect snow-removal sites in the winter to make sure that contractors were doing a good job. It would be “a more efficient way” of managing and seeing what a contractor is doing rather than sending a town employee out to check, according to the mayor.

    “I also believe that the police department is looking at it for potential at a jazz festival, or some big event … as a way of monitoring events, again, more globally,” Jackson said. “It may or may not happen, but we include it [in the bond ordinance] just in case it does.”

    http://montclairlocal.news/wp/index.php/2017/06/21/montclair-council-casts-wary-eye-on-drone-use/

  157. Walking bye says:

    How long before said drones go missing from the storage cabinet during the off season? I know we put the drones there last winter and now they are gone. Someone must have taken them.

  158. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, simply amazing. This could change everything!! This could bring back what the Democratic Party used to stand for…the working man. This guy is running against Paul Ryan….check the video ad…epic!! Lib, are you witnessing this? His quote at the end is priceless. “I think it’s time we switched roles, Paul Ryan you can come do iron and I’ll go work in D.C.”

    http://www.gq.com/story/randy-bryce-paul-ryan-campaign-ad

  159. Formerly Essex says:

    4:10 So what you are saying is that you’ve been a bottom far too long, it’s time to be a top.

  160. No One says:

    Cankles,
    That place looks pretty good if you want to while away the time away from people read books, do some gardening, watch some imported blu-rays.
    But, do you want an infinity pool in your Costa Rican hillside house?
    This quote amused me: “rich in wild life for your enjoyment and protection”
    How does wildlife protect me? Monkey howls alert me to banditos?
    How’s the cellular reception and/or high speed internet?

  161. Bystander says:

    A couple of powerful magnets and kiosk problem is solved…or some hacking could bring down whole system. A couple of days of that special sauce piling up and Ronald will be begging for cheap brown labor.

  162. The whitest guy says:

    No One. Get out of the country for a change. I think you would be surprised by what you find. Go take a cheap Carnival cruise that bounces around Central America and when in Port, go exploring with a local. Then ask the local about living there. America’s NOT that great (anymore).

  163. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Juice, that’s what makes me sick, it’s nothing special but because it’s associated with Clooney, he gets to laugh all the way to the bank. Like wtf? Could imagine the smirk on his face. This is where capitalism can be considered a joke.

    A joke? Whatever company is buying this piece of sh1t is free to suffer for their stupid mistake. Capitalism is wonderful. Now that NJ has finally removed the red tape down for people to open Breweries, they are popping up all over the place. And from what I can tell, these places aren’t permeated by the drunken stupidness that follows all the bars serving Coors lite.

  164. No One says:

    For a change? I must have visited over 20 countries over the past 10 years between work and vacation. Developed and developing countries. Different people have different priorities for lifestyle. What works for libturd may not work for me.

  165. No One says:

    Grim needs to get a NJ celeb like Snooky to sign up as brand ambassador so he can sell for a billion too.

  166. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    When jj went missing after Sandy, I decided to take a Saturday morning in 2012 and review all of the information he volunteered over the years and put it together. I just put it all in a matrix and solved. Once I got close there were very few houses that it could be and I just checked them one by one until his purchase price, date, and tax grievings matched. I sometimes wonder if I chased him away because I hinted a couple times that I knew exactly who he is.

    Pumps was even simpler, but that’s because he’s so simple. Unfortunately, Pumps didn’t go away when I found him out.

    So, expat, are you the loon that emailed me on my work email?

  167. chicagofinance says:

    TWG: there is no way for you to know who No One is, but if you did, you would realize that your post is completely offbase…….he is about as expert as possible with a great deal of insight into what he posts…..

    The whitest guy says:
    June 21, 2017 at 6:23 pm
    No One. Get out of the country for a change. I think you would be surprised by what you find. Go take a cheap Carnival cruise that bounces around Central America and when in Port, go exploring with a local. Then ask the local about living there. America’s NOT that great (anymore).

  168. Walking bye says:

    I still don’t see the value in taking over a lease. What if you take over the lease and there is damage you are not aware of? Who gets stuck with that when you turn the car in? Not worth the hassle to save $500 from what I could tell on these deals.

  169. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nope, different loon.

    So, expat, are you the loon that emailed me on my work email?

  170. joyce says:

    No One is Ragnar is A West

  171. Mike in waiting says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    June 20, 2017 at 11:15 am

    I wish the old guard would come back. I don’t know why people respond when the act is so blatant and obvious.

    Hi folks!

  172. Grim says:

    We talked with Snoop’s people about a project.

Comments are closed.