Do so at your own peril

From the Record:

Millennial generation shunning the suburbs for city life

They want the bustle. They want the convenience. They want the diversity.

In short, they want the city and not the suburbs – even after their children start school.

In a trend that is starting to chip away at the bedrock of suburban North Jersey, a surge of families with young children is gravitating toward New York City, reversing a path worn by generations before them.

Recently released demographic data shows the number of married couples with school-age children rose 10 to 20 percent across middle- and upper-income neighborhoods of New York City just in the first half of this decade, accelerating a trend that began in the mid-2000s. Similar increases were found in urban areas of Hudson County in New Jersey.

At the same time, the number of such families continued to dip across much of Bergen, Passaic, Morris and other suburban counties in New Jersey and New York, according to an analysis of the data by The Record and NorthJersey.com.

While towns closer to the city — and with shorter commutes — have largely escaped the trend, some of the region’s more upscale communities, especially those with longer commutes to jobs in Manhattan, have been hit the hardest.

Across the river, families are putting down roots from Riverdale in the Bronx to the Upper West Side of Manhattan to Park Slope in Brooklyn, where baby carriages have become as common as taxis.

“It’s totally different from where I grew up,” said Malya Levin, who spent her teen years in the city of Passaic and now squeezes into a two-room Park Slope apartment with her husband and toddler. “It’s really night and day, in terms of the diversity of people, the things to do, the lifestyle, the culture, everything.”

But as newly minted urban dwellers settle in, their decisions are starting to pose challenges for suburban communities in the form of declining school enrollments, stagnant home values and elevated office vacancies that experts say are connected to the trend.

“The suburbs are at a serious crossroads,” said New York University sociologist Mitchell Moss, former director of the school’s Urban Research Center. “The family of the future is not the same as the family of the past and young people are no longer living conventional lifestyles. Kids that grew up in the suburbs want to experience a different life and that has made cities attractive again. This is a major, major challenge for the suburbs.”

Communities that adapt will thrive, while those that ignore it “do so at their own peril,” said Rutgers University demographer James Hughes. “This is not a trend likely to go away any time soon.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

77 Responses to Do so at your own peril

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. JJ fanboy says:

    Fortunately Wayne is immune to this trend /sarcasm

  3. D-FENS says:

    How Revolutionary…no one has ever wanted to move to the city when they were young.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVtNPdDVIgE&list=RDMVtNPdDVIgE#t=0

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone look at the video in that article. They interview this guy? What a clown. Yea, that’s exactly what I want to go through everyday taking my daughter to school, no thank you. Why would you sign up for this torture, that’s a terrible way to start your day.

    Love the quote by the girl from Passaic. The diversity? You lived in Passaic!

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love how they throw this little piece into the article.

    “For sure, suburbia does continue to thrive, holding great allure as a place to have a home in a safe neighborhood with open spaces and quality schools.

    But for people like the Levins, suburbia and its trappings hold little appeal.”

  6. Juice Box says:

    re: “The diversity? You lived in Passaic!”

    Pumpkin not if you live inside the eruv wire.

    https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1FH6avYxniHiJ3dBEClUcbzVgRns&hl=en_US&ll=40.84753275638958%2C-74.14218686511225&z=14

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Damn it, I had no idea my multi family was inside the eruv wire. When did they expand it?

  8. Grab them by the Covfefe says:

    “The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public and private companies in the world, collectively managing more than $4 trillion in market capitalization across a wide variety of sectors. The quarterly CFO Council poll was conducted from June 2–16.”

    @keithboykin
    CFOs describe Trump’s management style:

    Antagonistic
    Arrogant
    Chaotic
    Disjointed
    Divisive
    Reckless
    Terrible
    Volatile

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    Puzzy,

    How’s that resistance working out for you mindless numbskulls? You’re 0 for 4 in post-presidential election results and have lost over 3,000 seats on the local, state and federal level. What’s your party’s agenda besides crying for approval and belonging?

  10. No One says:

    I never heard of Eruv wires until now. It’s amazing how seemingly intelligent people will stick to ancient superstitions. I guess it’s progress that with fishing line they can make up flimsy loopholes to try to get on with life and pretend they are still in compliance with superstitious rituals. I think Libturd should figure out a way to create a loophole for kosher pork bacon, he’d make millions.

  11. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    pumpkin has his pus in a lather. Look out!

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    When pumps tried his hand (and…) in gay p0rn his stage name was Clifton Herpes.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Pumps you should be happy, living inside the wire commands a premium.

  14. grim says:

    ERUV = Idiocy

    Sorry for offending.

  15. 3b says:

    As for this article. I have been saying this for quite some time . Take a stroll down lower Manhattan in the morning. Kids eyerywhere.

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why in the world would you want to deal with 1-5 year olds in lower Manhattan. Unless you are hiring a bunch of help to take care of them, that’s a daily nightmare. It’s hard enough to get the kids out of the house in the suburbs, and all you have to do is go into your garage and put the kids in the car. I can’t imagine walking everywhere with a 2 year old and dragging all their stuff around. F that, if these fools want to live like that in some cramped apartment with no yard, so be it. I’ll stick to what makes my life easier.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And a commute is golden when you have kids. It gives you a break to think and have some alone time. With autonomous cars, might even be able to sleep on the way to and from work.

  18. 3b says:

    Pumps does not matter what you think. I see it everyday. Kids back packs and of course the dogs!! Preferably two!

  19. No One says:

    What year do you think you’ll be sleeping in an autonomous car? Why not just pretend your uber guy is a robot and start sleeping today?
    Sometimes I have to wait at a light and my normal 9 minute commute turns into a ten minute nightmare.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And I see more millennials moving from urban areas to the suburbs. Sure, a minority take up residence in the city and never leave, but the majority go to the suburbs to raise their family from what I have seen. That’s why I can’t understand these articles, why do they make it seem like the majority are taking this position when it’s not true.

    3b says:
    June 23, 2017 at 11:13 am
    Pumps does not matter what you think. I see it everyday. Kids back packs and of course the dogs!! Preferably two!

  21. Juice Box says:

    Once the kids get older they will move out. Paying for daycare is expensive enough at $2500 month or more per kid but then to pay for private school at $35k a year too?

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    3b, I’m glad that Wayne didn’t panic and sell out to the developers, would have sold the town out for a buck. Once you change the zoning laws, there is no going back. No thank you. As the mayor is finally realizing, the storm is almost over, blue skies are coming back. Why wouldn’t a family want to raise their kids in a town like Wayne?

    “In Fair Lawn, Morristown and Park Ridge, that could mean higher-density, upscale housing near train stations. And new shopping options.

    “We realized that you have to change,” said Fair Lawn Mayor John Cosgrove. “Change or be left behind.”

    Other towns continue relying on traditional ways. Wayne, for example, shelved a plan to redevelop eight sites with luxury multi-family housing in 2013 after residents railed against it, saying it would change the town’s character.

    Wayne has declining enrollments in the early grades of its school system and fewer young families are moving to town.

    But Mayor Chris Vergano withdrew his support for the redevelopment plan and has since said that he has heard of enough young families moving to town to reduce his concern about the trend to “minimal.””

  23. Troll Feeder says:

    Pumpkin, lots of city dwellers with young families actually want to have time to spend with their families. Two 90 minute commutes to the burbs each day is a steep price to pay for a patch of grass and access to a middling public school system.

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Troll feeder, agree that it’s not for everyone. Different strokes for different folks. For some folks, access to that patch of grass and a bigger home is worth the commute.

  25. 3b says:

    Juice/ pumps the kids I see down here range in age from toddlers to high school. If you have a kid that’s in the 5 or 6th grade or older when exactly are they moving out to the suburbs? As they get older tee day care issue becomes less of an issue. The point in all this is 25/30 years ago people could not wait to get out of the city. We all moved to the burbs Bergen Westchester Rockland. Today people with kids appear to be putting permanent roots down in the city.

  26. D-FENS says:

    I liked times square better in the 1990’s.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    “The suburbs are at a serious crossroads…”

    No it’s not. They’ve been saying this for years. It’s a trend and cyclical.

  28. Anon E. Moose, Ghost of JJ says:

    Juice [7:23];

    This episode of King of the Hill was on just last night – I caught the last 5-6 minutes.

    http://kingofthehill.wikia.com/wiki/Lady_and_Gentrification

  29. Anon E. Moose, Ghost of JJ says:

    Pu$$y [9:48];

    In other words, officials of the multi-national corporations that bought and paid for both party structures don’t like someone in power who is beholden to neither, recognizes his position as such, and antagonizes both. Got it.

  30. JJ says:

    Been busy is DC since my run on Wall Street came to end. But have some good tales to tell. Since I got a relo package figured might as well bump it up from my show box white trash red neck south shore town. So I was looking in Potomac. Loved asking where can I put my inground pool and can I leave cars with no tires on front lawn. Anyhow in a fit of insanity inspired by a severance package and a relocation package and my stocks and bonds in a bubble I bought one of those Real Housewifes mansions. Wtf us Bronx boys deserve some love. Still holding onto my south shore s shack as you never know. But for now I can take a shit in five bathrooms. Gotta eat a lot of white castle.

  31. R We Great Yet? says:

    I fornicate in the City. Procreate in the Burbs. Every once in a while, my testicles smell like herbs.

  32. jcer says:

    It depends, I just made the move from Jersey City to the suburbs. I know people with kids who stayed but many who decamped. Space is an issue, it costs too damn much in and around NYC. The commute is a big one, it just isn’t as easy to get to work. Having a young kid in a city is doable but it is tough not having the car right there, especially in inclement weather. For people without kids I don’t get the suburbs, before kids the convenience of things being around and being able to go out when ever without driving was great, everything is close, and no house to take care of. With 2 adults an apartment usually has enough space, you can keep what you need, our place had a good sized kitchen and great finishes, I miss my big bathroom with the endless supply of hot water. But at the end of the day I bought 5000 sqft of suburban house for what my 2 bedroom apartment is worth, added 2o minutes each way to my commute, and a large amount to my property tax bill(my suburban taxes are 25k more than I was paying in JC on an abated condo). But unlike the people who stayed I don’t pay 35k a year for school, nor are we on top of one and other. The cost of living in a city is what pushes people to the suburbs here, in NYC you live like a rat on a 200k a year income while in the suburbs you can live an upper-middle class lifestyle if you can bear the commute on a 200k income.

  33. Juice Box says:

    3b How things change…. census data says the population of lower Manhattan has swelled 43% since the year 2000. There are now 83,000 living below Canal street and 45,000 living below Chambers street. About 30% are foreign born too.

    When I lived in the city I never liked that area much was too quiet at night. My gang of Friends rarely headed below Canal St. I did however spent allot of time in dive bars around Ludlow aka Max Fish. How things change….

  34. jcer says:

    That area is quiet at night, it’s part of the appeal for families…..

  35. D-FENS says:

    Yeeeeeesssssss!!!!!! Call the governors office! Sign the bill Governor.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/new_jersey/20170622_ap_5880a21e24964d28939958256f0f47b2.html?mobi=true

  36. 3b says:

    Juice it’s completely changed down there juice. It’s amazing.

  37. 3b says:

    Fast sorry I disagree with you. It’s more permanent. And when you say cyclical you are sounding a little like pumps. I don’t think you are going to see the hordes of city dwellers all of a sudden pick up and move to the suburbs. Also people are waiting well into their 30 and 40s before they have kids. Even 50! And many times it’s one and done. I had my first child at 27. You don’t see that today. And finally more than a few suburban towns are showing many of the same signs of decay that caused people to flee NYC 25 years ago. This city thing in my mind is a fundamental shift in my opinion not just cyclical.

  38. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    jcer – you have it exactly right plus you have both experiences, so you truly understand the differences whereas pumps just pretends he knows even a single thing about city life, or any life outside Passaic County, for that matter.

    Having lived and worked in both NYC and Boston I too know both. The only difference is living in Boston is easily doable on $150K and you can live great on $200K, as long as you had presence of mind to buy a place in 2002;-) I think you can still get by on $150K but if you have kids and want to own in Boston you’ll need $200K for starters.

    When it comes to commutes I was very lucky to start out the way I did. I worked my way through college as a limousine and bus driver (also as Physics and Math tutor). The last 18 months of my college career were grueling because I was taking a full time course load (barely, so I could live on campus) and also had a full time job working for Cherry Hill Bus and Limo on Railway Ave in Paterson. Since I was the most junior limo driver (by about 20 years). I always had the crappiest gigs, which always included a 4-5PM drop-off at either Laguardia or Kennedy. I spent every Friday evening in traffic on the Cross Bronx looking at the beautiful, comfy, and empty back seat in the rear view mirror. When I graduated college and my income tripled, one thing was guaranteed: no way, no how, would I be making anything resembling a long commute to work. I was prescient in knowing that no matter how much I loved driving, driving and commuting by car were not even in the same universe as each other. My first apartment was 5 miles from work, my 2nd apartment was 3 miles from work. Even so, I was heavily annoyed that it took 15 minutes during rush hour to get to work in the mornings. Heck, it only took about 5 minutes to get home for lunch and bong hits at noon.

    The cost of living in a city is what pushes people to the suburbs here, in NYC you live like a rat on a 200k a year income while in the suburbs you can live an upper-middle class lifestyle if you can bear the commute on a 200k income.

  39. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I have only made 80-90 minute commutes twice in my life and each time for a few months before I moved to be within 5 miles of work. The first time was in 1996 (Nutley NJ to Hauppauge Long Island) because it was my first opportunity to break into 6 figures. The second time was in 1998 (New Hampshire ocean front to Quincy MA which is just South of Boston) because it was my first chance move into management.

  40. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    And the only people who need a commute as “me” time are people who are in the wrong job or the wrong marriage or both.

  41. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    But for those two 3 month stretches where I did the long commute, I tried to make a fun game of it. When doing Nutley to Hauppauge I used to work 10:30AM to about 6:30PM so I could usually miss most of the traffic, but certainly not all of it.

    The first stage of the morning commute I needed to get perfect was adjusting my speed on Route 80 so that I reached the GWB at precisely 9:02 AM. This is because they had those carpool lanes that stopped being carpool lanes at 9AM. When I got there at 9:02 there would be a 15 minute backup at the tolls but none of those people waiting in line since 8:45 realized it was after 9 now and the carpool restriction was lifted. By 9:05 they would quickly figure it out after myself and 40 or 50 other cars flew by.

    Always the upper level, always the upper level, but I forget why. I think it had to do with some advantage at the Deegan exit where you needed to do some sort of lane changing strategy to thread your way through the tie-up.

    Next step, Whitestone or Throgs neck, Whitestone or Throgs neck? Pressing the buttons on the radio for traffic. 1010 WINS on the 10’s, WCBS on the 8’s, Bloomberg on the 5’s. If there is an accident at either that’s the one you head for. People stay away because of the traffic report but by the time you get there it is cleared and there are less cars at the tolls. My tolls were $11 per day, which was a lot in 1996. When I told my boss that during the interview he asked me if I could afford that. Of course he didn’t know that his company would be paying $110/hour for my time and time and a half for overtime.

    I was always hoping for the Throgs Neck because just for a second at the very top of the bridge you could see if the Cross Island Parkway was moving or not. If it was you took it, otherwise you stayed straight onto the Clearview.

    Then there were several places going West to Hauppauge where you could switch from the Northern to the LIE and vice versa.

    Friday nights in the Summer. Jeez – Two hours to get home no matter how you sliced it. By time Winter rolled around I rented a studio apartment for during the week. In the Spring and Summer I got transferred to project for the same company in Haworth, NJ. Then my project ended at the beginning of Summer. A few months later the same client got a huge project and wanted me back. No way was I going back to that same commute. They kept raising their offer and I took it, but I rented a house in Centerport and we moved. My wife (gf at the time) kept her low paying job in Hackensack. She was doing my reverse commute until she came home in a limousine one day. I saw the limo pull into the drive and she got out. She was rear ended into another vehicle on the Cross Bronx, totaling her Mustang convertible. That was when she got smart and gave up long commutes too.

  42. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m surprised they didn’t mention age of family formation. All of our friends in Boston are “older” parents. We’re all in our 50’s, when our kids were small we were all in our 40’s. My wife’s best friend, same age, still in NJ, started having kids at the same time. They have a nice house in Bergen County. My wife’s friend has been lying to her kids since birth that she is 10 years younger than she really is. Why? Because the suburbs are for young couples with children. It’s embarrassing to be the only 45 year old Mom with a kid in Kindergarten when all the other Moms are 35. In the city they’re all 45. Well, the white ones, anyway.

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Can you imagine being a successful 46 year old and having Pumps come up to you at school functions to tell you about his genius when it comes to demographics and cycles? You’d think about putting your house up for sale immediately.

    Pumps thinks a trend is something you make out of whole cloth to support the purchase you already made. Data, Schmata.

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    As I was finishing college I was tutoring a girl, private school of course, who lived smack in the middle of the Passaic Park eruv wire. I never gave a thought as to whether they were Jewish or not. Looking back, they had a very nice house, were paying me a lot of money to help their daughter with her studies, and the dad did own a factory…

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. I just remembered something else about the Nutley-Hauppauge commute. Gas in NJ was 99 cents a gallon, but much higher in NY of course. I had no problem going back and forth and back again on one tank in any of my cars, but none of my vehicles could back to NJ for the cheap gas on the second day. What this meant was I had to fill up every damn day. I think it was 60 miles each way, but even the 22 gallon tank on my 77 Camaro (350, 4 barrel, stick) couldn’t make it 240 miles with that traffic. My 24-28 mpg 4WD only had a 10.8 gallon tank, so I couldn’t make that work either. That was an ’89 Chevy Tracker soft top(they didn’t become Geos until ’90). That micro-truck had manually locking front hubs and also a low range. But even with the hubs unlocked, you could shift into low range. Low range was great for slow moving traffic because you could put it in first gear and not have to push the clutch in until you got down to about 0.5mph. Not only that, you could just let the clutch up with no gas and the car would start moving on it’s own. Since my wife wasn’t so good with the clutch, when we had a steep driveway in Long Island I would tell her to go up the driveway like this so she wouldn’t burn my clutch up:

    1. Stop the car at the bottom of the drive.
    2. Shift to low range.
    3. Take your foot completely off the clutch with no gas and don’t press it in again until you get all the way to the top.

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Getting around the city with kids is a breeze, but you need high quality strollers. The one you take everywhere is still the same today, a Maclaren Volo. The original ones had no hood (put hat on the baby, it’s much lighter). Ours was 7 pounds and the beauty is it can be folded or unfolded instantly with just one hand and it has an integral shoulder strap. It also rolls right down the aisle of commercial jets and fits in the overhead easily. I had a couple tiffs with air waitresses over it, having to convince them it is lighter and smaller than anyone else’s carry on bag. If they continued to give me a hard time I would just tell them that I have a bad back and they would need to carry the baby if they made me check the stroller.

    The other thing I noticed is that dopey suburban parents don’t even know how to drive a stroller. You lock the front wheels for outdoor surfaces and unlock them for smooth indoor surfaces. It’s that simple.

    When our second daughter was born two years after the first I bought double version of the Maclaren fold up stroller. They cost several hundred dollars but I was lucky enough to find one on ebay for $40 which I picked up in person in NJ as I happened to be going there. I think the one I bought was the last year that were made in the UK instead of China. That thing drove like a luxury SUV. It weighs about 40 pounds but takes up very little space, about the same as two Volos, but has integral hoods. We were still using that when the kids were 5&3. Fully loaded with kids and gear at the zoo the gross weight had to be 100+ lbs and it still drove like a dream. You don’t fully appreciate a set of high quality wheels until you are pushing 100 plus pounds of stroller.

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    That double stroller was actually more convenient to leave the house with than the car. Our apartment was about 6 stairs above a small lobby and then two heavy 1926 doors(inner one locked, outer one unlocked) and then down two more steps to the street. If one parent is taking two kids out to the car you would have to move them serially, of course, two complete trips to the street/car. Going out in the double you just open it up in the lobby, carry each kid down 6 carpeted steps and put them in the stroller. Since the double fits through standard doorways you could then just drive them right out of the building at the same time. As it turns out there was exactly enough space between the two doors to accommodate the stroller and an adult. Coming back in was just as easy; wheelie the stroller up two steps to the stoop, reach forward and open the unlocked door, drive them in, reach forward and open the locked door, drive them into the lobby, three trips up six steps (two for the kids, one for the stroller) and you’re in.

    Where we lived we had three playgrounds within walking distance. An unshaded playground that was protected from wind (great for cold days), another one that is a mix of sun and shade (good for warm days), and another one that is mostly shaded but with a big sunny sprinkler area for hot Summer days. I guarantee our kids had a lot more fun at those playgrounds than pumps daughter will ever have climbing by herself on some rickety Home Depot thing while she inhales all of the fumes from the speeding cars going down Pumpkin X. Boulevard.

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, we’ve never had or needed a baby sitter or daycare in Boston. We’ve always had at least one parent home and when the girls were ages 1 and 3 we both took a year off without working and I worked from home for two years after that so for 3 full years our kids had two parents home before age 5. Also, we have ELCs in Boston (public school -early learning centers). ElCs are K0(age 3), K1(age 4), K2(age 5), 1st grade. The one our girls went to was about 200 kids, all age 6 and under, so extremely safe. So from age 3 until age 6 school 7:30 until 5PM complete with meals, all free. Also yellow bus service (with child seat belts) picked up and dropped off right out front, also free as long as you live more than a mile from school (we were 1.2 miles). I did mention that owner occupied homes get subsidized taxes too right? Flat rate, it doesn’t matter how big or small your place, from studios to penthouses everyone who is owner-occupying in Boston gets about $2,000 deducted from their tax bill so long as you fill out one short postcard one time. After the subsidy our taxes were initially about $800 net. Now they’re up to about $2,000 net. That’s yearly, not monthly. Boston is orders of magnitude higher than NYC when it comes to services. Imagine sending you kids to top free schools starting when they are 3 years old full day and finishing at Boston Latin that sends 25 kids to Harvard every year all for $2000 per year in property taxes on a home that doubles in value in 15 years. You can’t beat that deal.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    At the ELC our kids went to I couldn’t believe all of the class trips to museums, circus, zoo etc. I’m not amazed about the destinations (all free btw) but how they did it. The entire school all at once, 4 school buses. Can you imagine having to watch 200 kids, all between the ages of 3 and 6 at a museum? I can’t believe they didn’t lose any. I even chaperoned a couple of the trips. They put giant brightly colored stickers on all the kids.

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Where our kids went from K2-6th grade was some sort of full inclusion school. They start out with 15 “typically developing (new pc terminoly for “normal”) kids. Then they add, over the years, up to 5 additional kids who have emotional problems. For this reason every class has two teachers and the lead teacher has a masters degree and is certified in special education. So less than 20 kids per class and two highly educated teachers per class. The only weird thing is that there is only one class per grade so the classes have the exact same kids each year unless someone moves or transfers. The school is almost impossible to get in because it is so highly rated. Also once one kid gets in all siblings have “sibling priority” to get into the school. Some years out of 15 Kindergarten seats there are only 3 or 5 seats available in the lottery because all of the other seats go to siblings. If you don’t get in for Kindergarten you are pretty much SOL.

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Too many simpletons who deny data on NYC housing trends?

    Why wouldn’t a family want to raise their kids in a town like Wayne?

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    But the cycle could be several generations and you might have to outlaw abortion to reverse it. I’ve seen this in my work with large multi-hotel conferences over a much shorter cycle (months instead of generations). It’s called wash out/wash in.

    Back in the days of in-person mega-conferences (does anyone remember COMDEX?) there is this phenomena that occurs in every “city-wide”(as they’re called) conference. The hotel rooms go on sale at different rates to different blocks but all at about the same time, around 6-9 months before a conference. As all the premium hotels book up attendees make reservations at further out hotels. These reservations keep going up and up in further out hotels until about a month before the conference. This is the wash out. Then something changes in the city. In the case of housing it is probably a combination of energy, traffic, lifestyle trends, and abortion (which caused the crime rate to peak and then recede). In the conference game it is cancellations of hotel rooms. As rooms become available in the city they aren’t filled by brand new attendees, they are filled by people who cancel their existing far out rooms to book a new room closer to the main venue. This is the wash-in. This leaves the “suburbs” depopulated in the end. Can you imagine glass-touching millennials driving in from the Poconos to their job on Wall Street? I knew young guys with young families who used to do that 30 years ago.

    They’ve been saying this for years. It’s a trend and cyclical.

  53. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    grim – If you can’t land Snoop, maybe you can buy commercial time during his mainstream game show?

    http://deadline.com/2017/05/snoop-dogg-the-jokers-wild-new-game-show-tbs-1202095413/

  54. Grim says:

    We actually weren’t interested. We turned them down.

  55. Clotpoll says:

    Final doom is at hand. Prepare yourselves.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Franken then pointed out that the Koch brothers had actually helped set up a “red team” of skeptics to take a new look at all of the historical data on global surface temperatures. He then quoted what the head of that team, Dr. Richard Muller, said in the New York Times about their findings:
    Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

    https://thinkprogress.org/al-franken-vs-rick-perry-climate-science-69fbc39619d4

  57. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @chrislhayes

    Children will get to be held personally responsible for their pediatric cancer.

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Creating better jobs?

    Forget Mowing Lawns; Teens Make North of $20,000 Fixing Broken Phones – The Wall Street Journal
    https://apple.news/AWEKVkY-dTHWHocvGnbYeTA

  59. Chi says:

    Global warming may be real. It may be caused by humans. But is it dangerous?

  60. Chi says:

    If it is, why?

  61. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Global warming had to be changed to climate change just to cover the years that get cooler. I liked it better when we just called it weather.

    Kind of like:

    illegal aliens became undocumented workers became migrants. Next they’ll just call them Traveling Wilburys.

  62. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think one of the biggest threats from global warming comes from the ocean. Can that eco system survive in a much warmer acidic eco system? Prob not. Now if the ocean can no longer be a source of food supply, what kind of impact does that have on us and the entire eco system as sources of food are eliminacted. What kind of impact does the warming of the ocean have on the air we breathe? Plankton produce an enormous amount of oxygen, will they survive under these conditions?

  63. Clotpoll says:

    There’s now a wine industry in Vermont, Nova Scotia and England.

    Just saying.

  64. Comrade Nom Deplume, surfacing briefly for air says:

    “grim says:

    June 22, 2017 at 11:32 am

    Easily fixed.

    Cap the maximum amount of hours worked by individual.

    Universal basic income based on new VAT taxes.

    Increased tax incentives for single worker households – or disincentivized multiple earners.

    Ban employment for anyone under the age of 21.

    Ban employment for anyone over the retirement age.

    I’m sure nobody would like any of these options.”

    Spot on. And this does get discussed in academic, wonky, tax policy nerd symposia

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume, surfacing briefly for air says:

    Expat, check your FB PM and let me know.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    ? A massive assumption with little support…..

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    June 25, 2017 at 8:32 am
    I think one of the biggest threats from global warming comes from the ocean. Can that eco system survive in a much warmer acidic eco system? Prob not.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    In 10 Years, Your iPhone Won’t Be a Phone Anymore – The Wall Street Journal
    https://apple.news/AI7Uqe7oKTz6P3OgpMmEtFw

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chi, aren’t the coral reefs already dying off due to the warming of the oceans?

  69. chicagofinance says:

    Just a random google search……. eliminate obvious alarmists (e.g., NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, anything from the UK) and you get at least something of possible objectivity…….on this list of 12 reason, global warming comes in 10…..
    https://seaworld.org/en/animal-info/animal-infobooks/coral-and-coral-reefs/longevity-and-causes-of-death

  70. chicagofinance says:

    So it becomes somewhat conspicuous that global warming appears cherry-picked off that list……

  71. chicagofinance says:

    I kind of appreciate #8…..stupid a55ed greenies with their eco-tourism demolishing everything in their path……

    Careless water recreation damages reefs. Divers and snorklers that sit or stand on or handle corals can injure the delicate polyps. Dropped boat anchors can gouge the reef and crush corals.

  72. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’m in!

    Expat, check your FB PM and let me know.

  73. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    I think one of the biggest threats from global warming comes from the ocean. Can that eco system survive in a much warmer acidic eco system? Prob not. Now if the ocean can no longer be a source of food supply, what kind of impact does that have on us and the entire eco system as sources of food are eliminacted. What kind of impact does the warming of the ocean have on the air we breathe? Plankton produce an enormous amount of oxygen, will they survive under these conditions?

    Anyone who seriously understands science would understand that no matter what happens, life adapts. This planet survived many mass extinctions only to repopulate it with new species.

  74. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BRT – You answered a stupid pumpkin post that I resisted. The first think wrong it with is premise is in the first two words, I think, which apparently is genetically impossible for the gourd.

    Second, the rest of his premise is just utter bs. The ocean is 3/4 of the earth’s surface and given the depth compared to the highest land elevations, it is pretty much impervious to any type of man-made change except from rising in height. Dickweed doesn’t get that bee die-off is a greater threat to food supply than any pH change in the ocean, which is almost impossible unless we have a direct meteor strike or super volcano eruption. He’s so stupid I think hid Dad got himself convicted and deported on purpose.

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