From HousingWire:
Pending home sales decrease slightly in July
Pending home sales dropped slightly in July, marking the fourth decrease in the past five months, according to the latest Pending Home Sales Index report from the National Association of Realtors.
The index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 0.8% to 109.1 in July. This is down from a downwardly revised 110 in June, and down 1.3% from last year. This marks the third annual decrease in the past four months.
“With the exception of a minimal gain in the West, pending sales were weaker in most areas in July as house hunters saw limited options for sale and highly competitive market conditions,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.
“The housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern with little signs of breaking through,” Yun said. “The pace of new listings is not catching up with what’s being sold at an astonishingly fast pace.”
Yun explained the national median home sales price rose 38% over the past five years, however hourly wages increased just 12%. This trend continues to place pressure on affordability in some markets. But NAR’s report showed the slowdown in existing sales since spring is the result of a supply problem and not one of diminished demand.
“Buyer traffic continues to be higher than a year ago, the typical listing has gone under contract within a month since April, and inventory at the end of July was 9% lower than last July,” Yun said.
“The reality, therefore, is that sales in coming months will not break out unless supply miraculously improves,” he said. “This seems unlikely given the inadequate pace of housing starts in recent months and the lack of interest from real estate investors looking to sell.”
Housing market may just freeze up for real this winter.
Limited options, no inventory. Buy why? Why aren’t there listings?
ratelock?
“Yun explained the national median home sales price rose 38% over the past five years, however hourly wages increased just 12%. This trend continues to place pressure on affordability in some markets.”
Upward redistribution has been very successful – and will remain so under upcoming so called tax reform
The reason listings are scarce is because the rate of moving is down. This trend has been going on for decades. Mover rate hits new record low almost every year (data Began in 1940s).
Upward redistribution has been very successful – and will remain so under upcoming so called tax reform
The rewards for success and hard work. It will keep stock prices steady as well, fueling dividends and reinvestment strategies. Nice!
ratelock?
No way, 30 year is sitting at near 3.875%. It hit a peak back in March of around 4.25%.
I would imagine we need to be in the 5% range to start talking rate lock.
Just another brick…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6HsaFn2zok&ebc=ANyPxKqaq6JYswLi3Ooig7T-8fRV4e25km_vfw4jCQ645S6QeBxroCyT2UWsbhoNsGgCLAE-XLxzJpMQYv837LbUyxx8A55sFw
@ryanbeckwith
Congress quietly mulls taxing your 401(k) up front to pay for corporate tax cuts
The reason listings are scarce is because the rate of moving is down. This trend has been going on for decades.
The ownership survival duration been relatively consistent at 11-13 years, on average, from the 1980s to now, so at least 3 decades.
The only time we’ve seen it tick upwards, was during the bubble burst in early 1990s, and in the mid to late 2000s.
Generally, First Time Buyers tend to stay in their first home closer to 11 years, and Move Up buyers tend to stay 13-14 years.
There are also regional differences, in the Northeast, homeowner survival duration (I love that term) is the longest of all regions, pushing around 20 years.
But, the trend upwards, this is a recent phenomenon, and likely short-lived.
Here is a good reference:
http://nahbclassic.org/assets/images/11HEO/SS010313Tab1.jpg
Happy Friday everyone inclduing Pumpkin.
Pumpkin can you please explain the Law of unintended consequences?
Use this example for us.
“Giving every adult in the United States a $1,000 cash handout per month would grow the economy by $2.5 trillion by 2025, according to a new study on universal basic income.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/1000-per-month-cash-handout-would-grow-the-economy-by-2-point-5-trillion.html
@PatrioticDan
The GOP is looking for ways to pay for tax cuts. Your 401(k) may bear the cost. Another “screw you, middle class”.
Hey P.ussy Moana,
Do some research on how the Oblammy administration wanted to target and tax retirement accounts.
Class warfare doesn’t work anymore. Democrats are now the “Rich Costal Elites”. That is their brand.
Grab them by the puzzy says:
September 1, 2017 at 9:38 am
@PatrioticDan
The GOP is looking for ways to pay for tax cuts. Your 401(k) may bear the cost. Another “screw you, middle class”.
Puzzy: really? sounds as if the facts are being twisted?
The median retirement account balance for all working-age households is $3,000; for near-retirement households, it is $12,000.
The experiment, conducted in 2014, involved a sample of 14,710 active workers 50 through 69 years old, a demographic seen as set in its ways and harder to nudge, the paper says. Some messages emphasized the benefits older workers derive from increased retirement savings. Others pointed out that income from social security and employer pensions may not cover unanticipated health conditions.
Results showed workers who received the emails were more likely to change their contributions, increasing them at a rate of 2.8% in the short-term compared with 1.8% for the control group.
The paramilitary wing of the Democratic party. ANTIFA
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/01/antifa-charlottesville-violence-fbi-242235
Federal authorities have been warning state and local officials since early 2016 that leftist extremists known as “antifa” had become increasingly confrontational and dangerous, so much so that the Department of Homeland Security formally classified their activities as “domestic terrorist violence,” according to interviews and confidential law enforcement documents obtained by POLITICO.
The only houses for sale are the ones no one wants, else they are ridiculously over priced due to the ‘rising market’ in NJ.
Most houses that sold near me (Cedar Grove) were on corners of busier streets (thru streets, not double yellows). There was hardly anything for sale which was decent, and if it was, it sold for a good amount.
In my case, for some time this year I was looking in Boonton Township/Montville/Kinnelon/Mountain lakes for a new home, as a ‘move up’ – but there were hardly any homes worth moving into, the only one I found was over priced by atleast 250K and it sat on the market the entire season and eventually delisted…
The lack of good inventory is real. People are holding onto their ‘good’ houses. Boomer’s aren’t downsizing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-arent-there-enough-houses-to-buy-2017-08-31
Meanwhile…
Justice Department: Harry Reid pressured Obama administration to help Bob Menendez ally
by Melissa Quinn | Aug 31, 2017, 3:04 PM
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/justice-department-harry-reid-pressured-obama-administration-to-help-bob-menendez-ally/article/2633116
Bingo! Boomers just aren’t selling for whatever reason. As simple as that. Creating a huge log jam in the market.
“Boomer’s aren’t downsizing”
Housing sales data represents beat up houses in our area. That’s why we haven’t even seen the big gains in the data. There is hardly any good inventory being sold, which brings down the avg sales price.
Dufus? You originally stated 1956…stfu!
Again, I ask. How the hell do you account for the huge gains at the beginning of the bubble 2000-2003? Don’t give me that bs that loose lending was responsible, that didn’t come till later in the bubble. What drove up the original hysteria was simply boomers all jumping into real estate driving up the price rapidly. This is how the bubble started. All the bs you speak about are symptoms that came about from this original run up. The loose lending did not create the bubble, it was simply created out of the hysteria of rapidly rising prices. The loose lending was used to keep the bubble going at the end, it was not used to build up the bubble.
The only way you can build a massive bubble is with a huge consumer base flush with cash going all in on an asset. Why you can’t understand this is beyond me. You are Mr. Ignorant.
Bystander says:
September 1, 2017 at 8:54 am
1964 actually dufus and most had houses and were raising kids by 2000. You don’t need a “generation” when you are handing out loans like speeding tickets on your street (apparently). There were multiple causes and shams along the way, not one. It has been discussed to death. Go continue to jerk to your single economic “theory”
The gas stations in my dallas area town ran out of gas yesterday. My wife found gas at a gas station on a minor highway in a rural area. That place only had regular. Many stations in dallas ran out of gas causing drivers to go out into the bedroom communities and drain their supplies. Supposedly gas will be delivered to the dallas area from Tulsa Oklahoma. Hopefully the Houston refineries will be online soon since dallas-Fort Worth area normally gets its supply from Houston.
Universal basic income is inevitable. How it will be rolled out, I’m not really sure. Maybe a tax on automation? The problem with the article below, they are simply taking loans and handing out money, which will prob not end well. You have to hope the growth created from the injection of capital into the economy goes directly back to pay for the loans. Someone will get greedy and decide to kick the can down the road….
Juice Box says:
September 1, 2017 at 9:19 am
Happy Friday everyone inclduing Pumpkin.
Pumpkin can you please explain the Law of unintended consequences?
Use this example for us.
“Giving every adult in the United States a $1,000 cash handout per month would grow the economy by $2.5 trillion by 2025, according to a new study on universal basic income.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/1000-per-month-cash-handout-would-grow-the-economy-by-2-point-5-trillion.html
Sorry to hear that. Hope it gets better soon.
Similar here…except that no one had power. Post Sandy…stations had gas but no electricity so they couldn’t get it out of the ground. The one station that was open I waited online for 2 hours. Lady in front of me ran out of gas while on line. Her car had to be pushed to the pump.
Around here gas has gone from around $2.20/gal to $2.69/gal in days.
JJ fanboy says:
September 1, 2017 at 1:28 pm
The gas stations in my dallas area town ran out of gas yesterday. My wife found gas at a gas station on a minor highway in a rural area. That place only had regular. Many stations in dallas ran out of gas causing drivers to go out into the bedroom communities and drain their supplies. Supposedly gas will be delivered to the dallas area from Tulsa Oklahoma. Hopefully the Houston refineries will be online soon since dallas-Fort Worth area normally gets its supply from Houston.
The anti price gouging laws are what prevents the gas shortage from being addressed. If gas were allowed to go to 4 or 5 bucks a gallon, they would send tankers from every neighboring state trucking over to sell and the shortage would be addressed in a day or two.
If you are strict with the whole typical no more than 10 percent rule, then of course no gas makes its way over any faster.
They weren’t flush with cash, they were flush with credit.
D-fend,
Thanks. We were still living in Jersey when Sandy hit. I remember those lines and the frustration of gas not being available because the stations had gas but no electricity. we are limiting our driving to only essential trips – work, schoool, and groceries until supplies are normalized. With 6 million people in the Houston area and 7 million in the dallas-Fort worth area Harvey could have a serious impact on the economy.
Of course the maestro mr greenspan would say rebuilding the storm damaged area is actually cause an economic boom
They really won the popular by 6 million votes …if you only count NY and CA which, of course, is how they would like it. How much money is wasted counting votes of people that don’t matter to anybody?
Class warfare doesn’t work anymore. Democrats are now the “Rich Costal Elites”. That is their brand.
@tonyschwartz
No way Trump donates $1m of own money to Harvey victims. He only promises to give. Never actually does.
IIRC, we blamed Sandy for errvything from bad housing starts, to jobs numbers…we rode this for something like 18 months after…
Pumps, see if there is a box you can check to get some Universal basic intellect.
Universal basic income is inevitable.
Google term leading edge boomers, dummy. Most of boomer generation (53%) were born before 1957. Your premise is wrong that they were in peak spending years in 2003 to 2007. Also, housing was underpriced from late 90s to 2001. The frenzy started when rates came down. You are idiotic to think 1% 1/1 hybrid ARMs or 0 down were not offered in 2003. It did not come later. The percentage use just increased. Loan qualification standards just kept deteriorating to keep volume churning… moron
Why do you guys even try?
They were still in peak spending years. The dot com bust scared the sh!t out of them. Like one giant herd, they fled to the housing market. That was booomer money creating those bubbles. Why can’t you grasp this? You keep focusing on the details or the symptoms instead of the real problem….herd like mentality combined with huge population flush with cash in peak spending years. It’s so simple, yet I’m the idiot.
You have a-holes like lefty that determine I’m wrong, simply because they refuse to say their position is wrong.
Lots of built up home equity was taken out….that’s flush with cash.
Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
September 1, 2017 at 1:39 pm
They weren’t flush with cash, they were flush with credit.
Lots of built up home equity was taken out….that’s flush with cash.
Yeah, I guess you’re right. My parents took out the $200k in home equity they had and spent $800k on top of it before letting their home go into foreclosure. Nevermind that they also had an additional 1,000,000 in mortgage debt on other properties.
Pumps you are particularly out of control today. Better readjust those meds.
Hold the line
http://thehill.com/policy/defense/348099-mattis-to-us-troops-hold-the-line-until-our-country-gets-back-to-respecting
Almost all the gas stations in my town are still out of gas. Supposedly Arlington and other large cities are also out of gas. We will be staying at home or only driving very short distances this weekend.
Does one get electrocuted by a flooded Tesla?
Huge amount of oil not being used. Wonder what impact this will have on future oil pricing since this should add to supply in the long term.
JJ fanboy says:
September 2, 2017 at 8:33 am
Almost all the gas stations in my town are still out of gas. Supposedly Arlington and other large cities are also out of gas. We will be staying at home or only driving very short distances this weekend.
@kylegriffin
Sanders still hasn’t found out if Trump’s $1MIL donation to Harvey victims will be a personal donation or come from his foundation (via CBS)
@juddLegum
White House walks back promise about Trump donating his ‘personal money’ to Harvey victims
@frankrichny
All Trump’s donations are fake.
JJ Fanboy, shame on you.
-You knew a storm was coming to your State. You know the social and empathic IQ of your adopted state is that of a 5 yrs old. You know that your adopted State government is going to do squat for you (unless are you a billionaire or run a megachurch).
So, I say. Unpack that Yankee bike of yours and take a ride.
Best paraphrase by this great clip. And this view is held by a large chunk of our readers.
https://youtu.be/Pn0WdJx-Wkw
This one is for pumpkin for his cause.
https://youtu.be/_kXl8LyD_JA
I ain’t got no yankee bike.
Fortunately since I don’t live in Austin I also have very few hipsters and pseudo progressive liberals talking about micro aggressionns and spirit animals and cultural appropriation while they sport their Chinese character tattoos and wash kimchi and sushi down with kombucha and eat organic apples from new Zealand and boast about how green they are while they have contests to see who is the most woke.
JJ Fanboy, I think you are confusing one with another.
Micro-aggression from a chinese character tattoo wearing new zealand apple eater is nothing compare to micro-aggression from the billionaire class that makes you think you are part of it, but only in moments like this you realize you are not. Otherwise you would have taken your private jet far away.
My point is – stop complaining about “storm related issues” . You are at the center of an area that puts forward a point of view that works great in good times, but not in bad time.
Anyway enough about left or right the real enemies are the locust boomers and Rupert Murdoch.
From a classic gen x movie.
Work less, make more — https://youtu.be/WinsZdTm-a0
You really think the east coast is superior? Barrier islands get flooded because wealthy out of towners don’t want the dunes rebuilt because it will block their views from their vacation house. Wind turbine construction was blocked for the same reason in other parts of the northeast. Liberals claim to value public education and multiculturalism while sending their kids to private schools. They also slap a for sale sign on their lawn as soon as the first non white or non East Asian moves onto their block. At least in Texas you don’t Have racially segregated communities to the degree you do in nj. The poor areas tend to be segregated but the middle class areas are very diverse .The coastal elite talk about global warming while flying around in private jets and living in multiple mansions. You probably still haven’t figured out that the haughtiness hypocrisy of the coastal elites is the reason trump won
JJ Fanboy,
I voted for Trump, because of a Clinton. Choice was between Jeffrey Dahmer and John Wayne Gacy.
What you don’t get is “I don’t care”. It applies to your “I’m short of gas for my truck”, as well as a 70 y/o baby boomer geezer “I can’t afford my cancer drugs”, as well as a ghetto dweller’s “My kedz won’t gets its edukation”.
I got my own problems to solve. Many made much worse by attitudes like yours, like the 70 y/o baby boomer geezer, like the ghetto dweller having retard kids they can’t afford.
It really is not about left/right. It’s a societal mind set. It’s about realizing – you are own your own and nobody wants to hear your b!tch!ng, in which you play a significant role in getting into. In this case moving to TX ad not being prepared to deal with the fact that what counts there is big $$, not you.
You definitely got your own problems pal.
You must have an oil refinery in your backyard or a huge storage tank under your driveway to not be concerns about a shorter gas shortage in your neighborhood:
Rugged individualism is a myth like the Easter bunny.
I am impressed at your ability to type as you f@p to ayn rand
I never got the impression that JJ fanboy was complaining about shortages or other related storm effects – just posting updates here the way Expat does with his RE or stock positions.
Dude was just posting his firsthand observations. Relax your sphincter man.
JJ Fanboy needs a bike says:
September 2, 2017 at 11:44 am
JJ Fanboy, shame on you.
-You knew a storm was coming to your State. You know the social and empathic IQ of your adopted state is that of a 5 yrs old. You know that your adopted State government is going to do squat for you (unless are you a billionaire or run a megachurch).
So, I say. Unpack that Yankee bike of yours and take a ride.
Best paraphrase by this great clip. And this view is held by a large chunk of our readers.
https://youtu.be/Pn0WdJx-Wkw
Some days I feel like moving to Texas.