Dynamics right for a bubble? Or is it different this time?

From the NY Post:

Are we headed for another housing collapse?

One decade after the biggest housing collapse in America’s history led to a global recession, could we be facing another crisis?

“Not happening,” says Burns, adding that the 2007 housing crash “was based on lending practices which have since been cleaned up.”

Many industry experts agree. The subprime mortgages that targeted borrowers with less-than-perfect credit and led to financial turmoil 10 years ago do not play a role in today’s real estate market.

“When you talk about a bubble, you think of people being really exhilarated and excited and prices going way up. We don’t see that now,” says Annie Cion Gruenberger, who has been a New York City broker with Warburg Reality for 28 years. “We have a very positive market, but a targeted market of smart buyers.”

So what do high price tags and low supply mean, if not economic catastrophe?”

The 2007 collapse spooked home builders so much, they didn’t want to build anything but high-end properties. That drove up house prices and made it harder for people to buy starter homes.

Meanwhile, the market was split into two halves: places such as Las Vegas, where development was overstretched and unsustainable, and which is still struggling to bounce back; and places such as Portland, Ore., and Silicon Valley, where NIMBY regulations limit how much construction can happen, meaning fewer homes available to buy. As a result, there’s a real lack of housing where the jobs are.

NAR’s Fears points to a number of trends: First, homeowners are staying in place longer, limiting the number of existing homes for sale. Low unemployment rates are keeping them from leaving town in search of work. High home prices are inspiring them to remodel rather than relocate within their communities, if they want a different kind of house. First-time buyers who can afford it might buy a home that can accommodate two kids instead of one, precluding a move a couple years after their purchase. Grandparents are staying put to live near their kids, rather than flying off to retirement far away.

In March, William Poole, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, wrote a column for cnn.com, pointing to concerns about the country’s two biggest mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “In Freddie’s 2016 Annual Report, the agency says 36 percent of its obligations are ‘credit enhanced,’ meaning they carry mortgage insurance of one sort or another, which is typically used for weaker mortgages,” Poole wrote. “If these weak subprime mortgages begin to fail in large numbers, so also will the insuring companies.”

Jonathan Miller, a real estate analyst at Miller Samuel, is unmoved by such arguments. He says the average buyer today has an average credit score “well above 700. They are some of the highest average credit scores in history.” He added that any subprime failures would be offset by the quality of most American borrowers being “unusually high.”

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132 Responses to Dynamics right for a bubble? Or is it different this time?

  1. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @JoeNBC

    1. Tax workers’ 401(k) contributions?
    2. Cut home mortgage deductions?
    3. Penalize voters in highest taxed states?

  2. Yo! says:

    I don’t see a national housing bubble set to pop. Price appreciation in West Coast markets has been driven by a mix of rapid job and wage growth combined with influence of international buyers, with little new supply of for-sale homes. Nationally, several key factors – lender stupidity and greed, buyer sense of urgency, and pace of new construction – remain in check.

    Expect to see more articles suggesting another housing bubble written by increasingly desperate media.

    For athoughtful, data-driven outlook on the country’s housing market, I recommend Big Shifts Ahead by John Burns. Book is quick read. John Burns is much better on housing and demographics than primadonna Richard Florida.

  3. Yo! says:

    I’m fine with removing home interest deduction. Raises a lot of money, isn’t designed to benefit special interests, timing is right, housing market has enough momentum to get through the change. Opposition by homebuilders, realtors, and mortgage lenders would add to credibility of eliminating the deduction.

  4. D-FENS says:

    More horrible news:

    Summer employers hired American amid Trump visa squeeze
    What happens when guest-worker visas run out?
    By TED HESSON 09/04/2017 07:31 AM EDT

    President Donald Trump’s harsh criticism of immigration programs and Congress’ refusal to lift a cap on work visas meant many seasonal businesses had to hire American this summer — and pay their workers more.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/04/summer-employers-trump-guest-worker-visas-immigration-242271

    Grab them by the puzzy says:
    September 5, 2017 at 7:37 am
    @JoeNBC

    1. Tax workers’ 401(k) contributions?
    2. Cut home mortgage deductions?
    3. Penalize voters in highest taxed states?

  5. Guomino says:

    New Jersey is an example of a bubble that will burst because RE taxes are insanely high, making it so most people can’t afford the taxes, let alone the mortgage.

    It is not uncommon for homeowners to pay anywhere between $10K and $25K per year for an average 3 Bdrm house! What makes it worse is that the services returned for such tax funds are no better than anywhere else and are usually even worse.

    It’s nothing short of fraudulent for government employees to charge so much for taxes and do nothing to reduce their own compensations and benefits.

    Say what you want about Christie but at least the man tried hard to stifle tax increases and even wants tax reductions. Without him at the helm, there’s a good chance that the traditional corruption will run rampant.

  6. Not Yo! says:

    Yo! is correct. This time is different. ***Snicker*** Keep talking your book.

  7. Yo! says:

    I am not stating home prices won’t go down. They are falling in 7 of 21 NJ counties on year-to-date basis through July (NJAR, single family houses). Southwest NJ is crashing, with Gloucester -6.7% and Salem -12.8%.

    To prevent triggering cognitive pain for many blog readers, I will leave it to others to identify the top performing county.

  8. 3b says:

    Walking bye from last night. Washington Township in Bergen County.

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If anybody wants to build a house on the only good, never built on, build lot in Glen Rock’s best neighborhood, 65 Rutland Rd is going up for sale. I don’t even know the Realtor yet. It’s 0.4 acres (100 x 177), flat, and the taxes are $12,000 with no house. I think the asking price is going to be about $420K. The neighboring houses are $900K+.

    Sure, your taxes will be $30K+ with new construction, but hey, Glen Rock has two train lines.

  10. abeiz says:

    “In Freddie’s 2016 Annual Report, the agency says 36 percent of its obligations are ‘credit enhanced,’ meaning they carry mortgage insurance of one sort or another, which is typically used for weaker mortgages,”

    Is it possible that otherwise credit worthy borrowers are opting to go with a mortgage that requires PMI to avoid having too much skin what they may perceive to be a shaky market?

  11. Grim says:

    I put down 10% and paid PMI for a year as I did renovations. Post renovation I refinanced and dropped PMI as new equity was over 20%.

  12. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Same here for the most part Grim.

  13. Steamturd supporting the Canklephate says:

    Put down the minimum I could without PMI and took out 50K HELOC. Refinanced a year later, shortening the loan and wrapping in the HELOC. It helped the estimate on my house came in 20% over what I paid.

  14. leftwing says:

    The hot areas of NJ are simply extensions of Manhattan. They’ll be healthy so long as the city is. When Manhattan suffers serious job losses is when the Gold Coast and train towns get spanked.

  15. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    TNX approaching $2 again.

  16. D-FENS says:

    @davelevinthal
    What are @TheDemocrats doing about #DACA this hour?

    Fundraising off it.

    https://twitter.com/davelevinthal/status/905089927783833600

  17. Phoenix says:

    DFens,
    It’s the American way. Pure Old capitalism

  18. Walking bye says:

    3b thanks. I wonder where they could squeeze a large development in township. I heard the garden center was rezoned but that’s not exactly a large lot.

  19. No One says:

    I’m really enjoying KennethPsype’s comments vastly more than Pumpkin’s. Briefer and more coherent.

  20. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Mental patients smearing messages with their own feces are often briefer and more coherent than the spooge that Pumpking sprays in his 14 consecutive post strafing runs.

    I’m really enjoying KennethPsype’s comments vastly more than Pumpkin’s. Briefer and more coherent.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Don’t worry, the Fed will be using their balance sheet to do micro and mini raises soon to jack the long end of the curve up….just so they can keep the yield curve from inverting and get back doing regular 1/4 point raises on the short end by Spring. That’s their plan, anyway. We’ll see how it works out.

    TNX approaching $2 again.

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Meanwhile the demand for 1 month Treasuries was so anemic at today’s auction that the yield surged to 1.3%, the highest in 9 years! One month is too short a duration when there’s panic in the air lemmings on the ground.

  23. No One says:

    I want to hear Cankles’ take on CNI. Haven’t commented on that lately.

  24. grim says:

    Leaving for Miami in a few hours, wish me luck.

  25. abeiz says:

    bring inner tube

  26. grim says:

    Wetsuit and swimmies

  27. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    Irma will hit Galveston before Miami.

  28. grim says:

    I’m out Thursday afternoon, well before.

  29. grim says:

    You sure about that Stu? Models shifting east now. Miami talking about issuing evacuation orders for where I’ll be (Brickell) potentially as early as Wednesday night, or Thursday morning.

    I’m still at EWR waiting for my (delayed) flight, feeling maybe I don’t pull the trigger on this flight. Halfway hoping it gets cancelled.

  30. The whitest guy says:

    Mad Loot owned CNI from 09/10/2009 through 1/15/2015. Made 22.5% annually on the investment throughout the time period. Looking back, it was a well timed buy and sell.

    Excellent company, but sold it when frackmania made gas too cheap making trucking cheaper than normal and company became overvalued. Maybe we are swinging the other way? Personally I doubt it. It’s a well run company with a decent dividend either way.

    My software says buy below 77 or 73 to be really safe. It’s currently at 80.25. Current RV is 119.5 which is a little high. Very little risk with this one, but upside is somewhat limited at current price (12% max return including dividend).

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “These are exactly the effects predicted by climate change: the frequency of storms may or may not increase, but their intensity definitely will. Look at the floods in Colorado in 2013 (1000 year rain event), the flooding this spring in California, Harvey a week ago, and now Irma. Several “1000 year probability” weather events happening in less than 5 years time. Climate change deniers might continue to bury their heads in the sand, but insurance actuaries sure won’t. It’s here, it’s real, and now all we can do is try to adapt to it and do everything we can to mitigate further climate change.”

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I mean it’s cute to think that you can burn shit loads of fossil fuels for 200 years and have no impact, but you have to be insane to believe that or just an ignorant fool.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And people have to remember that the people claiming don’t worry about climate change are the assholes that have polluted all the drinking water forcing us to drink from plastic bottles.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Let’s listen to them. They know what’s best for us.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Stop looking to the world through biased eyes. Just because 10k-25k blows your mind, doesn’t mean there isn’t a huge segment of the population able to afford this. Is this for avg people? No, but show me these tax bills in avg communities. Any place charging that much is not avg. Once you understand this, it will make more sense.

    “It is not uncommon for homeowners to pay anywhere between $10K and $25K per year for an average 3 Bdrm house! What makes it worse is that the services returned for such tax funds are no better than anywhere else and are usually even worse.”

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Agreed and I’m glad to see you are taking on pumpkins position of using demographics to make predictions on the economy. Shouldn’t see a housing bubble till second half of 2020’s.

    Yo! says:
    September 5, 2017 at 7:49 am
    I don’t see a national housing bubble set to pop. Price appreciation in West Coast markets has been driven by a mix of rapid job and wage growth combined with influence of international buyers, with little new supply of for-sale homes. Nationally, several key factors – lender stupidity and greed, buyer sense of urgency, and pace of new construction – remain in check.

    Expect to see more articles suggesting another housing bubble written by increasingly desperate media.

    For athoughtful, data-driven outlook on the country’s housing market, I recommend Big Shifts Ahead by John Burns. Book is quick read. John Burns is much better on housing and demographics than primadonna Richard Florida.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Northeast is hands down the best place to reside. Weather might blow at times, but you don’t really have to worry about losing it all to some natural disaster. South can expect way higher insurance premiums after all these storms. West coast, esp sf, is due for a major quake. So I’ll stay in the northeast for now.

  38. ex-Jersey says:

    Shake, rattle, and roll!

  39. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Northeast is hands down the best place to reside.

    -says the doofus who never left Passaic County.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Yikes….

    “Puerto Rico’s infrastructure has deteriorated greatly during a decade-long recession. Ricardo Ramos, chief executive of Perfil, the island’s power company, told WIPR public TV that some areas “will spend three, four months without electricity,” Telemundo Puerto Rico reported.”

  41. JohnWraro says:

    [url=https://writemyessay.us.com/]HTTP://WRITEMYESSAY.US.COM[/url]

  42. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    I may have to take that last one back. :P

  43. 30 year realtor says:

    Ex Pat,

    I have a buyer for that lot in Glen Rock. Happy to take 2%. Let me know if you want my contact information.

  44. abeiz says:

    Who said Irma will hit more likely hit Houston before it hits Miami?

    Also, with regard to this:

    “Stop looking to the world through biased eyes. Just because 10k-25k blows your mind, doesn’t mean there isn’t a huge segment of the population able to afford this. Is this for avg people? No, but show me these tax bills in avg communities. Any place charging that much is not avg. Once you understand this, it will make more sense.

    I was guilty of this kind of biased thinking myself but then I realized that a $200k annual household is not that difficult around here. No, to me it doesn’t make sense, and I choose not participate, however, that doesn’t change the fact that a whole segment of the population does do it. You can try to rationalize what they’re getting until you are blue in the face. Or, you can simply accept it and plan accordingly.

  45. abeiz says:

    Stu,
    Does Mad Loot have meetings? IIRC, I remember you used to talk about club meetings a few years ago. I used to be a big technical analysis kinda guy but then left it alone for a decade.

  46. Nomad says:

    Money is cheap because demand for it is poor. ChiFi, your the expert. When does it all end?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-is-becoming-desperate-about-deflation-2017-09-05?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    Anyone got a good suggestion or two on home security systems? Don’t want a hardwired system.

  47. Nwnj says:

    Old Craiggy got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. He must have been making a decent living. That lust for money is just to strong for some.

  48. JohnWraro says:

    [url=https://loansforbadcredit.us.com/]here[/url]

  49. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    Abeiz.

    3rd Tuesday of every month. Next one is in Glen Ridge at a newer member’s house. Though right now, market is ignoring fundamentals for the most part and we are having a terrible year due to this. When market corrects, we’ll get our due. There’s a ton of value out there mainly in large cap growth (IMO) if you are willing to steer clear of the techs.

    As for Irma, it is still changing every day, but I do think the center of Florida is probably the friendliest path it can take at this time. If it enters the GOM, forget about it. Sorry Florida.

  50. Hillary's Cankles are ground zero for Zika virus says:

    Nomad,

    A big dog is still the best deterrent. Though it’s not cheap. In Glen Ridge, the central monitoring alarms are not doing it since the robbers are in and out before the response team comes. They are also entering homes while inhabitants are home to grab iPhones, car keys and wallets. We have had houses all around us get robbed. They always skip ours, but our dog barks at the wind.

  51. leftwing says:

    x2 on the non-hardwired security system. Especially interested in lighting/viewing a vulnerable back yard, multiple entrances. I’ve done some legwork, many new neat products, any actual reviews appreciated.

    Re: deflation, lack of home supply, etc. Probably tangental but the article touches on it. I definitely get the feeling people have been and will continue to ‘hunker down’. Pre-2007 all the moms needed Range Rovers, every kid had to have the ‘right’ labels, everyone spoke about ‘trade up’ housing, competition over best vacations and wine collections, etc.

    I definitely get the feeling people now have made long term ‘bets’ and aren’t being swayed by the consumer culture. No matter how low rates go friends with means aren’t spending like they used – deflation. The idea of ‘needing’ to trade up houses 2-3x over your kids’ youth has evaporated – no supply.

    Maybe it’s just my age cohort, I’m older than most here so perhaps my peers (facing college tuitions and empty nests) are not representative. Still, many well off friends (current income and liquid assets) have markedly different behavior over the last few years. There just isn’t the rampant ‘need’ any more to spend.

  52. Phoenix says:

    Nomad,
    Look into Smith and Wesson home security.

    “Anyone got a good suggestion or two on home security systems? Don’t want a hardwired system.”

  53. Phoenix says:

    Nomad,

    In two separate cases, Carolyn Warren, Miriam Douglas, Joan Taliaferro, and Wilfred Nichol sued the District of Columbia and individual members of the Metropolitan Police Department for negligent failure to provide adequate police services. The trial judges held that the police were under no specific legal duty to provide protection to the individual plaintiffs and dismissed the complaints.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_v._District_of_Columbia

  54. Nomad says:

    Thanks Stu, big dog is best but won’t work. Maybe a drone dog with a good synthesized voice and a medley of tools to greet the perp. Surprised more gated communities not going up in the $1m – $2.5mm range.

    Many systems now have cameras to record and motion detectors to trip them and lights. Central Station monitoring is key, go with on that is UL listed. These guys say they will call within 15 seconds or so of alarm being tripped. https://www.alarmrelay.com although the basic monitoring is cheap, by the time you get what you need, price is more expensive.

    Some systems will do an immediate alert via txt so you can respond asap for help or to let them know its a false alarm. With all the new companies, financial strength is also a concern. SimpliSafe seems to have good reviews but no idea about their financial health. This one is publicly traded https://mymoni.com/about-us

    If all else fails, there is ADT.

    BTW, Range Rover, MB, BMW in the drive is billboard advertising for perps. If you got one, keep it in garage.

  55. Phoenix says:

    BRT

    A message from your union…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0

  56. D-FENS says:

    Simplisafe

    Nomad says:
    September 6, 2017 at 10:30 am
    Money is cheap because demand for it is poor. ChiFi, your the expert. When does it all end?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-world-is-becoming-desperate-about-deflation-2017-09-05?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    Anyone got a good suggestion or two on home security systems? Don’t want a hardwired system.

  57. abeiz says:

    how about a jerry-rigged shotgun vis a vis the front door?

    standing your ground, remotely.

  58. Phoenix says:

    Wonder what number 6 sold for in 1960.

  59. Comrade Nom Deplorable, surfacing for air says:

    ” grim says:
    September 5, 2017 at 3:36 pm

    Wetsuit and swimmies”

    You can’t dive with swimmies.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplorable, surfacing for air says:

    ” abeiz says:
    September 6, 2017 at 12:32 pm

    how about a jerry-rigged shotgun vis a vis the front door?

    standing your ground, remotely.”

    Every first year is taught this case:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katko_v._Briney

  61. Grim says:

    Miami Beach and Brickell pretty quiet.

  62. Grim says:

    Lots of boats in Biscayne Bay.

  63. NJCoast says:

    My dad is riding out Irma in his condo on St Thomas.

  64. Grim says:

    Mandatory evacuation at 9am

  65. walking bye says:

    grim, good luck. PLan on driving home?

  66. Yo! says:

    Amazon searching for a 2nd North American HQ. Does NJ have a chance? I think they could take the Goldman Sachs building in Jersey City. Unlikely to go for Merck facility in Readington. That part of state doesn’t possess the right workforce, and the right workforce wouldn’t want to move there. I’m looking forward to hearing this state’s pitch.

  67. Not Yo Amazony says:

    Re- Yo! 8:11am

    – My bet is Newark. Bezos likes cheap. Newark has tons of empty office space + post industrial space. Newark’s political bosses would give it away + pay them from the public coffers to get it in town (they’ll make a killing in properties that they hold and will sell/redevelop later – Think Sharpe James & his many ladies).

    Plus of course PATH/NJ Transit & that always optimistic sentence “up and coming – post ghetto transitional stage “. With the deep reality that Amazon, being Amazon will use cheap H1-B1 Visa contractors and all around cheapest labor possible, usually offered by the Indian community. NJ Transit’s link to the Edison Area with it’s Bombay Express service makes total sense.

  68. Grim says:

    Safe back in Newark – United pulled through one got me on a flight.

    Didn’t hurt I’m on track to do nearly 100k miles this year.

  69. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Good for you on finding some United loyalty. Parents plan to hunker down in their 4 th floor tenement in Boynton Beach (as far from the coast as the development pretty much goes there). I told them I would send them my GoPro so they can record the helicopter rescue. Being the good son, I sent them an awesome LED flashlight that can charge off a car battery. It will help them see the beads of sweat that they’ll be suffering from when out of power. My parents, though in excellent physical shape, are pretty old. Dad is approaching 90 and mom is in 80s. I told them they lived a long enough life and that I get the CX-5. Or what’s left of it.

  70. chicagofinance says:

    Everyone thinking it; no one has balls to say it…..

    Bannon: Catholic Church supports DACA because illegals fill pews

  71. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Confuscious say: He who farts in church, sits in pew.

  72. abeiz says:

    That’s nearly Platinum if not 1K. Unless you always fly lowest cost like I do, then the PQD hurdle is tough if not impossible to meet. Glad you got out before the sh1t show started.

    Amazon in Newark is interesting. Everything that’s been said makes sense and I think the better question for the NYC tri-state is: If immediate NYC area then where but Newark makes sense?

    I suppose they could take multiple floors in WTC /shrugs/ at which point I think Williamsburg rents would pierce a whole other strata. I was just in Greenpoint the other day, those dilapidated three unit row homes are asking $1.75-2M each.

    It was my understanding that Amazon has a very generous Restricted Stock Unit package policy…40-70k vesting in 3 years on a 90-120k base.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133LBigv7pOkgpTkA6bHHQQ8rJMrlcBbK8ulavbw2CSo/edit#gid=1788283558

  73. Nomad says:

    Grim, you got out before this mornings 9am deadline. Premature Evacuation. Who says United doesn’t service their important customers. Glad you got out.

    Right now, the path has it buzzing the shore line just enough to keep the warm water fueling the high winds. Maybe we catch a break but this thing looks like it could show our eyeballs something we have never seen. If its as bad as it looks, the construction material and labor supply chain will be backed up for years. Many people, especially the elderly may never go back to their homes.

    Post Andrew buildings, what kind of max wind load can they handle until the structure fails? Hurricane windows can take up to what, 90 mph without consideration for flying debris.

  74. 3b says:

    I don’t think Amazon goes to any of the high taxed states. I bet they shock with their decision.

  75. joyce says:

    Steamturd,
    Wasn’t familiar with exactly where Boynton Beach is… holy crap! What’s their plan? Hope the eye of the storm goes directly over them?

  76. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Oh believe me, they are not the only one’s staying. If you thought the rescues in New Orleans/Houston were bad, wait till you see what happens in that part of Florida. All these seniors think they survived Andrew without a scratch (of course Andrew was a cat 4 and barely grazed the Keys) so they’ll be fine. It’s like they’ve all been swimming in the Cocoon pool.

  77. joyce says:

    What sites/sources do you recommend for a projected path of the storm showing precipitation? 99% of what I’m seeing is projected path with wind speed and probabilities.

  78. Cal-Essex says:

    smoke em’ if ya got em!

  79. Cal-Essex says:

    wherever AMZ goes they be woo’ed with tax credits.

  80. Grim says:

    I’m like 13k pqd so far.

  81. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    This is what their building looks like. They’ll probably be alright. Have hurricane shutters too.

    http://tinyurl.com/libturd-folks-home

  82. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:
  83. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    This is probably what you want Joyce:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1504796093

    Though, outside of 48 hours, QPF is hard to predict.

  84. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Oh, how amazing it was back in the 90s when it came to free upgrades. My pqd was probably around $2,000 and I always sat up front when purchasing the cheapest fare codes possible. Of course, you’d have to call Houston at 1am to request the upgrades, but the early bird always got the worm.

  85. 30 year realtor says:

    Do people still talk about real estate here?

    I have said over the past few months that the North Jersey market is not normal. Every week I see further evidence of this. Got out bid on a 5000+ GLA home in Gladstone this week. Prices in neighborhood are still seeking a bottom post financial crisis. Value off 40% from 2005 sale and dropping.

    Someone on the board was trying to dump a lot for a high end house in Somerset or Western Morris. Good luck to you! Luxury market in distant commuting locations is in the tank. New construction homes in this area are now being built in the 3500 – 4000 GLA range. Days of the 5000+ GLA homes in this area are a thing of the past. All of these existing homes are white elephants.

  86. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Everywhere but the train towns 30-year. Nothing along the RVL counts BTW.

    House across the street from us sold first day for 700K. It’s identical to ours, but ours has more upgrades. We are in for about 500K for ours. Bet we could easily get $725K. Not bad for 6 years appreciation. It helps to nail the bottom.

    Took the train in today. Pretty smooth commute actually (took 75 minutes, door-to-door). Was surprised to see that the lot in Bloomfield is up to $1 hour so it’s now $10 to park daily. Our permit at the commuter station $850 per year is on hiatus until Gator returns to work. Not counting gas, it’s now $1.50 cheaper for me to take the train to the city instead of driving. But it’s 40 minutes longer. Keep in mind, I work in the city twice per month now so I don’t qualify for any commuter discounts.

  87. 3b says:

    30 years I am seeing some listings in my town with asking prices at or slightly more than than what they sold for in 2005/07. So for all the talk of a shortage of listings one would not expect this. I am in a what’s deemed to be a desirable blue ribbon Bergen Co train town. Also interesting is in some neighboring towns to mine not deemed as desirable but still Bergen Co there are listings for small 3 bedroom houses under 300k. And many in the 300 to 350k range. As for friends in town that are post college or close to post college no one is talking about how much their houses are worth. Just when they are getting out ,where to go,the high property taxes. My contribution to the real estate discussion today.

  88. Cal-Essex says:

    11:07 you have this figured out. We got out by sheer luck.

  89. 30 year realtor says:

    Essex County is stronger than any other County beside Hudson. Bergen is all over the place on recovery relative to 2006 peak. Some Bergen towns are ahead of peak and others still struggling to get within 20% of peak. Recovery is all over the place. Among towns struggling are Franklin Lakes, USR, Saddle River, Mahwah and Ramsey. The higher end the home in these towns the tougher the recovery.

  90. Cal-Essex says:

    Terrible locations? Beholden to limited/shrinking industry jobs? Or just ugly ass dinosaurs.

  91. Phoenix says:

    Arrogance.

    “All these seniors think they survived Andrew without a scratch (of course Andrew was a cat 4 and barely grazed the Keys) so they’ll be fine. It’s like they’ve all been swimming in the Cocoon pool.”

  92. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Mountain Lakes I never understood. Have a friend who moved his family into a townhouse there around the peak. I laughed when I saw what they paid for it. They also bought matching his/her Acuras at the time. I wish I remembered their address because I’d love to see the bath they took. None the less, they moved to Boonton in 2011.

  93. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Yup.

    It’s not like they don’t have the money or the means to evacuate. Typical Greatest Generation position I guess.

  94. joyce says:

    Stupidity?

    Phoenix says:
    September 7, 2017 at 11:29 am
    Arrogance.

    “All these seniors think they survived Andrew without a scratch (of course Andrew was a cat 4 and barely grazed the Keys) so they’ll be fine. It’s like they’ve all been swimming in the Cocoon pool.”

  95. 3b says:

    Steam from mountain lakes to boonton ! That is a radical change!!

  96. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    I can only imagine how much they lost.

  97. 3b says:

    30/ stu interesting with rates being so low though that no one I know is talking about how much their houses are worth.

  98. Yo! says:

    3b, I think you are right. Amazon could prioritize a state with zero state income tax like Washington. Texas probably wins this. Comes down to Austin, Dallas, or Houston. Will be entertaining to watch governors of states with high taxes and or low IQ populations begging like little bitch dogs for Amazons business.

  99. 3b says:

    Yo That is what I mean by shock as in Texas!! I would not be surprised if that is where they go. Irony indeed!

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    Houses don’t last long where I am, I can tell you that!

  101. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    St. Maarten is wrecked.

  102. nwnj3 says:

    Yep, Whole Foods was based in Austin so that is a natural fit for AMZN. They will shop around to max out incentives first.

    In the northeast I could only see Manhattan, Boston or NOVA. Those cities all have industries that AWS would like to partner with and be located near.

    I don’t see them putting down a big stake in NJ or Newark despite the existing presence.

  103. Phoenix says:

    Boonton or Boonton township? Big difference…

  104. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    Boonton

  105. Steamturd, Part Time Orientalist and Full Time Mysoginist says:

    But just shared this story with Gator and she said they never lived in Mountain Lakes. They just told everyone they did since their kids went to Mountain Lakes High School. Still, the story rings pretty much the same.

  106. 3b says:

    Fast: Perhaps. Or perhaps because you purchased recently your perspective has changed or perhaps a combination of both. Just saying.

    Stu/ Steam is one of the few who calls them as he sees them regardless of his personal circles or stake. Just saying.

  107. NJCoast says:

    Got a 5 second call from my dad in St Thomas, he borrowed somebody’s phone that had cell service. He’s ok, generator is working in his condo, even got a hot shower! Curfews until 6pm. All roads impassable. Airport damaged. Hopefully we can get him out soon. He’s 83 and this is the 3rd major hurricane he’s been through. My sister sold her St Thomas condo last April-phew- and bought one in Marco Island, Fla- uh oh.

  108. Phoenix says:

    Steam, they probably lived in Boonton township. It’s right next to mountain lakes and goes to same high school

  109. chicagofinance says:

    Dedicated to Stu:

    Why the fcuk is this not being trumpeted from all the rooftops?

    WTF is this?!!
    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/nj_transit_under_investigation_by_us_dept_of_labor.html

  110. chicagofinance says:

    This was the quote that isn’t in the above article, but is an all-time classic

    ” Mr. Barretta told legislators that during his short tenure at NJ Transit “I witnessed more occurrences of agencywide mismanagement fueled by ignorance, arrogance, hypocrisy, incompetence, patronage, coverup and corruption than one can reasonably expect to experience throughout an entire career.” “

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    FIVE SECRETS ABOUT NUTLEY NJ REAL ESTATE
    Stats on Nutley. It just keeps spreading down rt 3 like I have been stating. The more expensive those “hot” areas become, the more this will spread in search of the next value down the line. 3b, one day you will understand.

    1) The Median Estimated Home Value Is $404,200
    2) Values Have Risen +9.24% Over The Last 12 Months
    3) Home Ownership Accounts For 67% of Dwellings
    4) The Majority of Homes Sold Were 1400 to 1600 Sq Ft.
    5) The Greatest Number ff Homes Sold Were 90 to 105 Yrs Old

  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why does everyone expect there to be even growth in pricing across the northeast nj landscape? Growth is always based on localized markets playing off each other with each rise and drop in price.

  113. 3b says:

    Pumps There will never come a day when you will understand as you are blinded by the fact that you own a house. Therefore everything is viewed by you through that prism or perhaps I should say prison. I have owned and rented and own. I call things as I see them my personal circumstances do not influence my opinion.

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Could Football Go Extinct in Vermont? – The Wall Street Journal
    https://apple.news/AcP1BQJ44RtqNbDmUxrN1rg

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Did you ever realize that you do the exact thing you are talking about because you rent or are in the midst of getting out. My analysis has nothing to do with my home purchase in Wayne. Believe it or don’t. I could care less about current pricing because I’m not selling anytime soon. Just save way too much by not moving. Plus, my house is a perfect size, don’t really need anything bigger.

    Just renovated my entire lawn. Planted a monostand of “blueberry” Kentucky bluegrass. Had great germination results. Starting seeing germination on day 7. Usually takes 21-28 days to get that with Kentucky bluegrass. Weather has been perfect since I planted on august 21st. My neighbors all thought I was crazy for killing my entire lawn since they thought the grass was beautiful, but they just can’t understand the perfection I’m looking for.

    3b says:
    September 7, 2017 at 8:06 pm
    Pumps There will never come a day when you will understand as you are blinded by the fact that you own a house. Therefore everything is viewed by you through that prism or perhaps I should say prison. I have owned and rented and own. I call things as I see them my personal circumstances do not influence my opinion.

  116. Juice Box says:

    Hurricane now shifting further west, Naples and Marco Island to get hit.

  117. 3b says:

    Pumps If you read my post you would see that I said I don’t let my personal circumstances play into my financial decisions. As in if I own I can’t say anything negative about real estate because I own. Or I am only saying negative things about real estate because I do not currently own any in NJ. I have rented and owned in NJ which therefore makes me a neutral observer as far as I am concerned. I ha e found that most rah rah real estate people are simply that because that is where most or all of their wealth is. As such they simply can’t be objective or neutral or entertain a downside. And what planting grass seed has to do with anything well I don’t know. But that’s you!

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:

    After renovating a lawn = I’m not moving anytime soon.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s like worrying about the current stock prices when I plan on cashing out 20-30 years from now. Pointless. If it’s not at a higher value in 30 years, then the economy collapsed.

  120. No One says:

    KennethPsype still crushing the Pumpkin at writing and critical thinking.

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