That time of year again

From The Street:

Top Predictions for U.S. Home Prices In 2018

Danni Springfield, a real estate agent at The Springfield Group in San Antonio, Tx. – Even relatively steady markets are seeing impressive growth in the housing market, Springfield says. “In San Antonio, it cost 10% more on average to buy a home in 2016 than in 2015, although 2017 numbers have not been released yet,” she says. “All indications are that this trend will continue in 2018 based on one item – inventory.” A market is considered balanced with about six months of inventory, and, in a balanced market, homes will appreciate at 2% to 3% on average, Springfield notes. “In a low inventory market, like much of the country is currently experiencing — San Antonio is at 3.1 months — the average price appreciation will be 6% to 7%, and high-demand pockets will grow in double digits,” she says. “As long as jobs are up, interest rates are low, and homes are appreciating, we are going to see a high volume of real estate transactions.”

Janine Acquafredda, real estate broker with House n Key, Realty, in Brooklyn, N.Y. – More people are looking to buy and fewer are looking to rent, and that’s a big impactor on home prices going forward, Acquafredda says. “Rental prices have moved so high the last several years that it makes sense for people to buy, since mortgage payments and rent are comparable in terms of a monthly expense,” she explains. “I think we will see rental prices continue to move lower as inventory grows and demand shrinks.” Acquafredda says that as long as mortgage interest rates remain low and the overall health of the economy stays strong, 2018 should be a healthy year for real estate. “That said, I don’t predict any surges in pricing, but I do see more of a level, consistent sales activity.” Acquafredda also says there is one potential fly in the ointment for the U.S. real estate market in 2018. “One big impactor could be the GOP tax plan especially in major cities, like New York City, where the change to the mortgage interest deduction could have a huge impact,” she notes. “You’ll see fewer people buying multiple properties and the proposal to scale back the ability of Americans to deduct state and local tax payments from their federal bill is also going to impact what and where people buy.”

Allison Bethell, Real Estate Investor Analyst, at FitSmallBusiness.com, in New York City – Home prices are affected by the stability or lack of stability in the economy, unemployment rates, interest rates and supply and demand of housing inventory, says Bethell. “A lot of new homes are being built and will be delivered in 2018, and housing has recovered from the hurricanes in Texas and Florida and the fires in California are behind us,” she says. “Also, interest rates have risen this year so this, along with low unemployment rates indicates that home prices will rise next year by a few percentages. They won’t rise as high as they have in the past, but they will still see a small incline.” Bethell also says that “lack of available inventory” especially in Los Angeles, New York City, Boston, and San Francisco will keep the prices going up and may price out professionals looking to purchase in those areas.

Greg Moers, a real estate agent at Triplemint, a real estate start-up brokerage firm in New York City – Home prices will rise faster than incomes in 2018, says Moers. “Even though the rental market is still strong in most markets with little inventory, we should expect to see continued positive home pricing growth,” he says. “Housing will also become less affordable hurting millennials and renters the most. Any big government policy change, like tax reform, will stimulate demand more than supply, which will push the prices upwards.” As for home prices, Moers says that if the industry is currently building more houses than we need, then prices don’t need to firm up. “I expect long-term interest rates to rise a little, which won’t help prices,” he says. “Although there’s not much reason to expect a collapse, the recent 7% nationwide price increase seems a bit much given the demographics. I would think that 3% would be more realistic next year.”

Denise Supplee, Realtor and co-founder and operations director at SparkRental.com in Hatboro, Pa. – “We will see some interesting fluctuations in the U.S. real estate market in 2018,” Supplee states. “One largely will hinge on the up-the-air tax reforms that directly affect housing.” Another emerging factor is that the millennials are moving, Supplee adds. “I’m seeing more younger homeowners fleeing the city life for the quieter suburban life,” she says. “With family planning on the horizon, a need for neighborhoods with sidewalks, better schools and fenced in yards are replacing the nightlife and culture of the city.’ Additionally, Supplee says that complaints of “no inventory” most likely will continue. “Another oddity I’m noticing is that the baby boomers are holding onto their homes. Whether that’s due to an increase in multigenerational living or modern medicine providing a higher quality of life, this is definitely a contributing factor to ongoing low home inventories.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to That time of year again

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. exJersey says:

    Morn

  3. 3b says:

    Cities don’t have sidewalks?

  4. homeboken says:

    I know I’ve seen conversations about this on the board before but I need to follow on:

    What are the boards snow-blower recs? I am going to be needing to cover a rather steep driveway, approx. 30yds in total length.

  5. homeboken says:

    I know I’ve seen conversations about this on the board before but I need to follow on:

    What are the boards snow-blower recs? I am going to be needing to cover a rather steep driveway, approx. 30yds in total length.

  6. dentss dunnigan says:

    Snowblower …Ariens best ,most dependable 2ed choice john Deere but only if you live close to a dealer …..

  7. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Toro power clear single stage is fast and easy to use (have to get biggest model, not dinky small ones). Although, based on extreme weather patterns becoming the norm, prob smart to go with dual stage. No walk in the park with heavy snow that is a foot or more with a single stage….esp if it ices over.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Single stage is much faster though if it’s like 8 inches of snow. I practically run with it. It’s light, fast, and easy to use.

    No matter what, get a model with electric start. It’s so much easier to start. Nothing like trying to get a snowblower that’s been sitting for months started on a 20 degree day.

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This is what I roll with. Also it was free (left by my landlord). With a little help from Stu and liquid gold, I was all set last year. 1983 baby!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1EsJaAgSfo

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, electric start is for puzzies.

  11. JJ fanboy says:

    Snowblowers. Ha. Don’t need no stinking snowblowers

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, does anyone else watch Meet the Press just to see what Chuck Todd is doing this week with his “comb forward”?

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    LOL. Nearly a decade ago with Trump and Chuck Todd’s “comb forward”:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtS8M1qKk3E

  14. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @ezraklein

    We have grown too afraid of the consequences of removing an unfit president from office and too complacent about the consequences of leaving an unfit president in office.

  15. Grab them by the puzzy says:

    @ChrisMurphyCT

    The purposeful gutting of American power abroad is mystifying. If you didn’t know better, you’d think some rival government was running our foreign policy.

  16. abeiz says:

    impactor? Really, Jeanine from Brooklyn, really?

    How about the incessant and voracious appetite of the asian RE illegal sublet owner/buyer in BKNY and QNS, mmmmh? Clearly not an “impactor” of any significance.

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  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    @AnnieLowrey

    My husband’s puzzy is so gaping that I double-fist him in his sleep and he doesn’t even notice, much less wake up.

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Turn the page on the Clintons, their day is done. I can’t wait to see in what style they fade and die.

    http://nypost.com/2017/11/11/how-the-ex-dnc-chair-ruined-clintons-chance-at-2020/

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup!

    The GOP Has Done the Impossible: Make Tax Cuts Unpopular – New York Magazine

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “In private, Steve Bannon reportedly gave Trump only a 30 percent chance of finishing his term, even before Robert Mueller dropped his first indictments. (Bannon has denied saying this.) And there are other fresh signs of an advancing Trump expiration date besides, from the resounding Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey on November 7 to the epic failure of the Republican Congress to accomplish anything. But don’t celebrate just yet. Once Trump exits — whenever and however he goes — then what? It’s a continuing liberal blind spot to underestimate the resilience of Trumpism, which, if history is any guide, will easily survive both the crack-up of the GOP and the implosion of the Trump presidency. Whether Trump lasts another three weeks, another three years, or another seven years, our troubles won’t be over when he’s gone. They may well get worse. And by worse, I do not mean Mike Pence, the Koch-brothers tool so feared by liberals because he might be more efficient at bringing America to its knees than his boss. Were Pence to ascend unelected to the presidency after a Trump collapse, still more scandals would pour out, Republicans in Congress would be fighting for their political lives, the economy would be rattled, and Washington would default into faux-bipartisan our-long-national-nightmare-is-over mode until the next election. Unlike Gerald Ford, Pence might not even fill out a term as a one-and-done caretaker, given his own vulnerability to obstruction-of-justice charges.
    What we should be worrying about instead is the remarkable staying power of the American voters who put these guys in office. They’re in for the long game no matter the fate of the current administration. Trumpism predates Trump and Pence by decades and is a more powerful, enduring, and scary force than either of them. Trump learned this himself the hard way when Alabama Republicans voting in the Senate primary this fall chose the more Trumpist candidate, the gun-totin’ crackpot bigot and alleged sexual predator Roy Moore, over Mitch McConnell’s candidate, the garden-variety right-winger Trump had impulsively and mistakenly endorsed. The toxic anger that defines Trumpism — a rage at America’s cultural and economic elites in both political parties as well as at minorities and immigrants — will only grow darker and fiercer once its namesake leaves office, no matter how he does so. If Trump departs involuntarily, his followers will elevate him to martyrdom as the victim of a coup perpetrated by the scoundrels of “fake news” and “the swamp.” If Trump serves one or two full terms, his base will still be livid because he will not have bestowed the lavish gifts he promised, from a Rust Belt manufacturing comeback to a border wall. His voters won’t pin these failures on Trump but on the same swamp creatures they’ll hold responsible if he’s run out of office. They’re already blaming the cratering of “repeal and replace” and other broken Trump promises on what Bannon and his allies call “the McConnell-industrial complex.”
    Right-wing nationalist populism is nothing new in America; the genealogical lines of Trump and his immediate antecedents, Sarah Palin and the tea party, trace back at least to the later years of the Great Depression, when the demagogic and anti-Semitic radio priest Father Charles Coughlin turned against the New Deal and vilified Jewish “money changers” masterminding an international conspiracy to plunder his working-class flock. The movement was rebooted with a vengeance once the civil-rights revolution took hold in the 1960s: The term “backlash” grew out of the economic columnist Eliot Janeway’s 1963 observation that white blue-collar workers might “lash back” at new black competitors entering a contracting job market. That anger coursed through the quixotic presidential campaigns of the onetime Nixon aide Pat Buchanan from 1992 to 2000, through Ross Perot’s in 1992, and, most especially, through the four presidential runs of the segregationist Alabama governor George Wallace between 1964 and 1976.“

    After Trump Will Be Another Trump — and This One Could Be More Dangerous – New York Magazine

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