So what’s this all mean for fifteen?

From the Washington Post:

Minimum wage, sick leave, ethics top Murphy’s agenda

Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy spent his first full day on the job Wednesday rallying for a $15 minimum wage and statewide paid sick leave, holding a Cabinet meeting and signing his second executive order.

Murphy, a wealthy former Wall Street executive who has never held elected office before, took over from Republican Chris Christie on Tuesday, pledging to move state government in a progressive direction and promising to thwart President Donald Trump.

Day 1 on the job comes as Murphy returns state government to Democratic control for the first time since former Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, left office in 2010 and making New Jersey one of only eight states where the party controls the governorship and the Legislature.

Despite having political control, Murphy seemed to tamp down expectations on hiking the $8.60 minimum wage to $15 and implementing statewide paid sick leave, saying he didn’t have a timeline in mind.

“You can’t get there overnight,” said Murphy during a roughly 45-minute round-table with workers at a Newark church.

Murphy also reiterated his stance that the minimum wage should be raised to $15 an hour over time, but stopped short of explicitly backing legislation that Christie vetoed in 2016. Under the bill Christie vetoed, the wage would have risen to $10.10 an hour and reached $15 after five years.

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183 Responses to So what’s this all mean for fifteen?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    Like I said yesterday. Look, I think this is a bigger threat places like China and India who have not yet developed strong domestic consumer markets to offset of economic losses out outsourcing. However, this is a big threat to lower-skill labor types here in the US as well.

    How to stop ‘extremely disruptive’ AI from harming society: Robert Shiller

  3. chicagofinance says:

    I just want to wipe that fake, and frankly weird, smile off Murphy’s face. No problem. New Jersey will do it in short order. I bet he is out of office before Trump.

  4. grim says:

    Made $35+ million over the past few years, said he was going to take the $175k Governor salary.

    At least Goldman Sachs millionaire Corzine turned it down, why Goldman Sachs millionaire Murphy did not, is curious.

  5. grim says:

    I just want to wipe that fake, and frankly weird, smile off Murphy’s face.

    Not weird, he has a highly asymmetrical face. His right eye is noticeably lower than the left, and the right part of his mouth is higher than the left. You probably wouldn’t even recognize a mirror image of him. However, it makes him incredibly recognizable, he has a face most would remember. Spent way too much time studying cognitive facial recognition in my early years.

    A fun anecdote, the art of caricature developed by playing on the human cognitive facial recognition approach. By exaggerating differences from the “norm” face, you create a hyper-recognizable image of the person. Even the political caricature artists highlight the eye differences when you see political cartoons of Murphy.

    http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoons/MarguJ/2017/MarguJ20170414A_low.jpg

  6. Very Stable Genius says:

    @nytimes

    In Touch Weekly published excerpts from a 2011 interview with Stormy Daniels about her relationship with Donald Trump.
    “He told me once that I was someone to be reckoned with, beautiful, smart, just like his daughter,” she said.

  7. nwnj says:

    No one cares about that fake news story, in fact it probably helps Trump. It’s seen as piling on by the fake news industry which no one trusts, there are no reliable sources and though believable people don’t generally care what consenting adults do in private. But hey, the fake news is still trying to figure out how he won so I’m not surprised.

  8. nwnj says:

    I said this before, but I think both legalization and $15 minimum wage are dead. The unions have spoken and they will protect their golden goose. Both of those reforms are seen as a threat.

    The most alarming part to me about Murphy is that he lacks leadership. Has this guy made one decision yet on his own that wasn’t spoon fed by special interest? He still can’t decide on the 2% cap, are you kidding me?

  9. Libturd, Ch@neling JJ says:

    Everything he does will need to pass the DNC litmus test. He is just another HRC and will face the same demise for it.

  10. Very Stable Genius says:

    @EdKrassen

    Now that it’s pretty much proven that Donald Trump had an extramarital affair with Stormy Daniels, where is the outrage from the Republicans who demanded Bill Clinton be IMPEACHED?

  11. nwnj says:

    Fitting from you, but that’s just stupid.

  12. Libturd, Ch@neling JJ says:

    Unhinged.

  13. Nomad says:

    Grim,

    Read this morning about H1B renewals are much tougher now. Instead of coming back with “Approved” they come back w numerous questions including why the pay is so low. Also said work quality of programmers and ultimately software quality was poor. This is your wheelhouse – can you comment if this is true and if you believe programming jobs for Americans will grow due to less H1B approvals? Thanks,

  14. Nomad says:

    Lib,

    is your plan to buy in Costa Rica or just rent there and other than climate, why CR? Cost of living, political stability, judicial system that is fair and stable, economic stability. Thanks,

  15. You didn't build that says:
  16. You didn't build that says:

    Boeing — $100 million in charitable donations; $100 million for workforce development; $100 million for infrastructure and facilities

    “On behalf of all of our stakeholders, we applaud and thank Congress and the administration for their leadership in seizing this opportunity to unleash economic energy in the United States,” said [Boeing CEO Dennis] Muilenburg. “It’s the single-most important thing we can do to drive innovation, support quality jobs and accelerate capital investment in our country.”

  17. D-FENS says:

    Newark, NJ made the list of possible cities for Amazon headquarters. They’ve narrowed it down to 20 possible cities.

  18. D-FENS says:

    https://nypost.com/2018/01/18/new-governors-son-appears-to-make-circle-game-gesture-during-swearing-in/

    A few observers in New Jersey, however, noted that the younger Murphy’s gesture could also be construed as similar to an “OK” hand gesture sometimes used by white supremacists.

    Josh’s gesture was first reported by savejersey.com, which pointed out the link to racism and that the Matawan, NJ police department got in hot water recently for posting a photo of officers making the same hand gesture.

    A columnist for The Trentonian also noted that Josh’s gesture, while appearing to be the “Circle Game,” also was similar to white supremacist symbolism and should not ever be used at a public event by the child of a state leader.

    “Josh, 20, an elder son, drew his right hand from behind his back, then flashed a below-the-waist upside down Ok sign, consistent with the “Circle Game” but also a universal sign for white supremacists,” The Trentonian’s L.A. Parker wrote.

    “During these challenging times no room exists for ambiguous behavior, no ignorance or conscientious stupidity, both calamities once voiced by Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.”

    A spokesperson for the governor’s office could not immediately be reached.

  19. Libturd says:

    Nomad,

    My plan is to go down there for a year and will rent and moped my way around the country until I find the area where I’d want to buy or build. Then I’d probably spend the next six months finding someone to build my retirement home if I don’t find something I like. Gringos get ripped off horribly there when they buy turnkey expat properties. It is significantly cheaper to build a place yourself. I’ll probably end up in the upper western corner of the country where most of the beach communities are. Why CR? Lots of reasons. First, I love their political system. Second, healthcare is cheap and excellent. This is extremely important as both my wife and I will be in our fifties and the “D,” will have life-long health issues. Third, the climate. It really doesn’t get much better than CR. The Guanacaste region avereges 80 degrees year round and has a short and drier rainy season. As we age and potentially need assistance, we’ll move to the center of the country where the mile high elevation keeps things cooler. Fourth, the people. Costa Rica is a happy, happy place. It reminds me a lot of Hawaii in this way. Fifth, everyone speaks a good amount of English, though I can pasar in espanol. Sixth, it is cheap. Want some examples? You can hire a live in helper for $100 a week easy. We might need this for our youngest. Taxes? 13% sales tax. No income tax on investment and social security income. Property taxes are $62.50 per 100K value. It’s cheap I tell you. And real estate is probably 1/2 to a 1/3rd of what you would pay around here. About the only thing that is expensive is cars and car insurance. People down there can’t drive for sh1t. You are better off on a moped. Safer, cheaper, and you can traverse bad roads and floods much easier. Seventh, there is little poverty. Lowest in Central America. Did I mention they have no military?

    There are really only two issues. Petty theft (non-violent) and dangerous driving. But where are you driving to besides the airport to pick up other gringos. Which by the way, Jet Blue has a direct flight for $300 round trip from JFK. Sometimes less.

    Or you can move to the sh1thole known as Florida.

    https://www.point2homes.com/CR/Condo-For-Sale/Guanacaste/Coco-Hermosa/Ocean-View-3-Bedroom-Villa-in-Ocotal-Beach/49022500.html

  20. Libturd says:

    D-Fens – You are starting to post stuff dumber than Moana’s garbage.

  21. You didn't build that says:

    “Apple on Wednesday announced plans to open a new campus in the United States and said it would hire 20,000 new employees over the next five years.

    It also says it plans to pay $38 billion in repatriation tax. CNBC estimated that with the new repatriation tax rate of 15.5%, the company would bring nearly all its overseas cash, or about $245 billion, back to the United States.”

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nj basically has the best odds of benefiting from this. We have 3 slots out of 20(nyc, Newark, and philly). Pretty much seems like Newark is the obvious choice. You can knock out 3 birds with one stone….Newark would cover both of those markets.

  23. Libturd says:

    The other issue down there is power. Outages are frequent. I’ll buy a small generator.

  24. Nomad says:

    Thanks for the info. I knew they got rid of military over a decade ago with the money reallocated which apparently helped their economy significantly.

  25. No One says:

    Is every Amazon employee already paid more than $15/hr?
    Otherwise, that’s yet one more reason for them to strike Newark off the list.

    Refresher on the restraint of trade that minimum wage laws are:
    https://mises.org/blog/hazlitt-explains-minimum-wage-laws

    Minimum wage laws were once a settled question amongst professional economists as harmful, but somehow a fairly small study by two left wing “labor economists” Card & Kreuger gave statists the talking points they needed to revive this baloney. Back when Krugman pretended to be an economist he wrote about the minimum wage, even he questioned the Card/Kreuger conclusions, suggesting that minimum wages drive up unemployment. But as a good leftist, he now supports minimum wages.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Washington DC area seems to be our biggest competition for amazon.

  27. No One says:

    Libturd,
    That house had you at “bidet”.
    Any fruit trees in the back yard?
    The house itself doesn’t seem much cheaper than similar houses in out-of-the-way places in rural Florida.
    I read that Costa Rica is starting to worry about the cost of “free” healthcare to the inflow of elderly expats.

  28. D-FENS says:

    Gun Magazines that hold more than 5 rounds to be illegal in bill before state assembly.

    http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2018/Bills/A1000/655_I1.PDF

  29. D-FENS says:

    STATEMENT 12
    13
    This bill revises the definition of “large capacity ammunition 14 magazine” to reduce the number of rounds of ammunition a legal 15 magazine may hold in this State. 16
    Under current law, it is unlawful to own or possess an 17 ammunition magazine that is capable of holding more than 15 18 rounds of ammunition. 19
    This bill would reduce the maximum capacity of a legal 20 ammunition magazine in New Jersey to five rounds.

  30. D-FENS says:

    Why don’t you tell us more about how your farts smell?

    Libturd says:

    January 18, 2018 at 9:36 am

    D-Fens – You are starting to post stuff dumber than Moana’s garbage.

  31. Very Stable Genius says:

    @ianbremmer

    I feel bad for Barron.

    Otherwise I could care less about the Stormy Daniels expose.

    Nothing we didn’t already know about the President.

  32. Libturd says:

    As much as I dislike Murphy, posting a story about his son sending white supremacy signals is really about as dumb as it gets here.

    And you completely missed my fart reference, which is not surprising. It was an homage to Dolores O’Riordan’s passing. I’m sure the smarter ones here realized it.

  33. D-FENS says:

    Read the article before you insult me. I agree. Several NJ police officers were disciplined for flashing the same signal and were called white supremacists. It’s absurd.

  34. Libturd says:

    No One,

    I have enough saved to retire here without an issue. I just hate it here. See D-Fens and Moana’s postings for why. It’s exactly what most of my social media feeds look like.

  35. Libturd says:

    I am not wasting my time on it.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    P.ussy N Boots,

    You got some real, earth-shattering news there. About as believable as you having the means to build a house you claim few can afford. There’s some fake news for you. LOL! Dolt.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    “You can’t get there overnight,” said Murphy during a roughly 45-minute round-table with workers at a Newark church.

    The poor and lesser masses used again. “Never give a sucker an even break” should be the permanent battle cry of the left.

  38. Libturd says:

    “I read that Costa Rica is starting to worry about the cost of “free” healthcare to the inflow of elderly expats.”

    So be it. I’m surprised it took this long. I would probably want to try to obtain residency. Though retired, I’m probably going to be too cheap to not figure out a way to run some sort of business down there.

  39. dentss dunnigan says:

    Murphy accepting the 175K a year is the only person in the state working for less than he pays yearly in property taxes …..

  40. No One says:

    Libturd,
    Follow your dream. It sounds like a nice adventure for the second half (or so) of your life. How many years until you reach escape velocity?

    I’m getting closer to 50, and me and people in my office in my age group are starting to face a choice between maximizing wealth versus maximizing lifestyle. I’d like to get to Florida where I can play tennis & golf at an age that I’m still able to play semi-competently, and avoid these long dark winters. I’ve got money, but most of it is tied up in a business that will probably keep me in a NJ office – financial incentives would keep me working there until I drop dead at 70-something with an 8 figure legacy but no retirement. Though a market crash could easily smash that legacy value.
    Biggest headaches at work? Dealing with entitled fcking millenials. And the perpetual daily fog of war involved in outsmarting global markets.
    The best outcome would be for the company to relocate or establish a satellite office in FL, so senior people can improve our lifestyle while continuing to make money for the firm. That would be my equivalent of your Costa Rica move.

  41. Nwnj says:

    Maybe murphy’s Kid figured out progressivism is a load of bullshlt. If he’s a straight white male he’s going through life with a target on his back.

  42. Phoenix says:

    Libturd,
    This used to be the country all wanted to come to.
    Now those with the means and the ability are looking to flee.
    The information on CR I have knowledge of is exactly what I have seen posted today.
    I wish it was an option for me, I would have to give up custody of my daughter in order to go there, can’t do that, love her too much.
    I have to admit I am just a tad bit jealous. If you do go, please stay on this forum.

  43. No One says:

    In case anyone still thinks about buying houses, the WSJ had an article about how to win bidding wars:
    Cash may be king, but words are pretty powerful, too: One of the most effective ways to win a bidding war is to write the seller a letter. Vindicating JJ’s approach.

    “All-cash offers nearly doubled a buyer’s chances of trumping others, while waiving a financing contingency—effectively agreeing to forfeit the deposit if a buyer can’t get a mortgage—boosted a buyer’s odds by 57.9%, according to new data. Surprisingly, penning a cover letter came in a close third, increasing a buyer’s odds by 52.2%. The numbers are more dramatic in the priciest 10% of the market: All-cash offers were 437.8% more likely to succeed, while cover letters increased a luxury buyer’s chances by 75.7%.
    The data are based on about 14,000 offers in 2016 and 2017 that involved competing bids and were written by agents at Redfin”

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It still is. Problem? The rich aka elderly have become extremely greedy and selfish. So they use America to get rich and then think about taking their money and fleeing to nations that are cheap for people with money. These places thrive on expat money, but really not sure how this is sustainable long term. If the wealthy take their money and run instead of giving back to the communities that built that wealth, all the burden of the costs of society will be put on young workers, which is obviously not sustainable long term.

    Actions and choices have major consequences.

    “This used to be the country all wanted to come to.
    Now those with the means and the ability are looking to flee.“

  45. Nomad says:

    No One, don’t you think the inevitable acceleration of property taxes in NJ, combined w new tax bill, mtg rates going up will drive housing prices down (assuming Amazon does not move to Newark)? H2 18 is where it gets interesting. Are you in consulting? Lots of entitled millennial seem to like that industry as they are grossly overcompensated and falsey believe their skills warrant the income they receive.

  46. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear…… I consider Trump personally repulsive and I am not a Republican, but this article rings almost completely on-key. Some of the representations toward the bottom start to push the envelope too much, but things are pretty good….
    https://gop.com/the-highly-anticipated-2017-fake-news-awards/

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Just apply my previous post to nj and you will understand why so many people complain about the taxes. Once people get rich off the nj economy and decide to retire, they leave. Leaving everyone else with the burden of paying the costs of society used by these individuals to get rich. Lucky for nj, the nyc metro economy is one of the strongest in the world. So nj is able to survive on the backs of highly paid 30 and 40 year old professionals who pay these costs left behind by rich retirees.

  48. Libturd says:

    Phoenix/No one.

    Money is the easy part of the equation. Convincing the wife is the hard part. Hence the need for my exploratory year to make sure this is right for her. Personally, I require nothing more than a studio apartment, a hammock, a fishing rod and a small garden. My investments should easily spin off 50K a year minimum without touching the principle. Then I have SS coming in on top of that. Plus, I’m sure I’ll find something to do that pays something. It’s in my blood. This country seems to be all about retail. I am the complete opposite. Give me a beach chair and I’m good for the day.

  49. leftwing says:

    “Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy spent his first full day on the job Wednesday rallying for a $15 minimum wage and statewide paid sick leave, holding a Cabinet meeting and signing his second executive order.”

    If you’re broke, hey, why not spend someone else’s money for them. LOL.

  50. Libturd says:

    Did I say 50K a year? Oops. 200K a year. But whose counting. Plan is to get out of Dodge as Gator Junior enters college. He’s currently a high honors student in 7th grade. This is quite a challenge considering what he’s been through these past couple of years. We hardly saw him in 6th grade.

  51. leftwing says:

    My absolute favorite fake news item is fake news itself.

    Don’t forget, the term was coined by the Left to describe Fox and other similarly minded outlets.

    Then the Right totally co-opted it, turning the fake news label on its head to mean MSM.

    Liberals – spinning out on an icy hill and stomping that accelerator harder.

  52. Libturd says:

    Fake news is divisive news. It existed long before Trump got into office. Just look up 99% of what Fox had to say about Obama while he was president.

  53. No One says:

    Nomad,
    Fund management.
    We can even track people’s performance against the market. What blows my mind is when people who clearly underperformed their benchmark cry for bigger bonuses and even promotions. They’re fortunate they don’t get fired, like many hedge funds would do to people even after just one bad year.

  54. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    “Very Stable Genius says:
    January 18, 2018 at 8:28 am
    @EdKrassen

    Now that it’s pretty much proven that Donald Trump had an extramarital affair with Stormy Daniels, where is the outrage from the Republicans who demanded Bill Clinton be IMPEACHED?”

    Going out on a limb here but I think it was because Trump hasn’t lied about it under oath while President?

    This is too frigging easy.

  55. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Rule #1: Be handsome.

    In case anyone still thinks about buying houses, the WSJ had an article about how to win bidding wars

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    “The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 18, 2018 at 10:58 am
    It still is. Problem? The rich aka elderly have become extremely greedy and selfish. So they use America to get rich and then think about taking their money and fleeing to nations that are cheap for people with money.”

    Have you ever stopped to consider why that is? And why it is a fairly recent phenomenon?

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    “D-FENS says:
    January 18, 2018 at 9:59 am
    Gun Magazines that hold more than 5 rounds to be illegal in bill before state assembly.”

    Good. Defeating NJ in the upcoming civil war will prove far easier when you’re completely outgunned. Naturally, we’d ring-fence Camden and the Newark-Elizabeth areas; some sort of modern version of Hadrian’s Wall.

    Then the Shore shall be ours. MUAHAHAHAHAHA.

  58. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    My favorite too. That was Trump’s first stroke of genius when it comes to jiu jitsu messaging. Fake news is now the MSM. Ironically, the Russian collusion mug shot booking tag may ultimately be hung around Hillary/Obama/Comey’s neck.

    My absolute favorite fake news item is fake news itself.

    Don’t forget, the term was coined by the Left to describe Fox and other similarly minded outlets.

    Then the Right totally co-opted it, turning the fake news label on its head to mean MSM.

    Liberals – spinning out on an icy hill and stomping that accelerator harder.

  59. D-FENS says:

    What happens in Jersey doesn’t stay in Jersey.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:
    January 18, 2018 at 11:52 am
    “D-FENS says:
    January 18, 2018 at 9:59 am
    Gun Magazines that hold more than 5 rounds to be illegal in bill before state assembly.”

    Good. Defeating NJ in the upcoming civil war will prove far easier when you’re completely outgunned. Naturally, we’d ring-fence Camden and the Newark-Elizabeth areas; some sort of modern version of Hadrian’s Wall.

    Then the Shore shall be ours. MUAHAHAHAHAHA.

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    Grim (from prior thread)

    “Keep in mind that the wealthiest in NJ are typically not working salaried positions for an employer. They are business owners, with businesses based here. I’m talking about doctors and lawyers with practices, distributors, retailers, contractors, etc.

    For these people to move, is for them to start over from nearly ground zero. The question is, are they willing to give up an actual successful business for a possibility of a successful business somewhere else? For many of these people, it took time to build networks, relationships, and business.

    I suspect for many, they’ll look at the calendar and decide that it’s simply easier to ride it out for 10-15 more years than to attempt to pull out and move. . . . ”

    Grim, these are excellent points but a few things to consider because they may be the proverbial bagholders if they stay and they are unlikely to do that.

    First, when their clients leave, so does their business. Yes, it will be at the margins but it will happen. So they move with their clients or shutter their doors earlier.

    Second, don’t underestimate the ability of this group to shift income to another jurisdiction or defer it until safely out of NJ’s clutches (this is the sort of thing I am working on).

    Third, technology means mobility and that could mean some of these folks could fully or partially transition out of NJ for income tax purposes (hey, look at me. All of my income is NJ-based but I don’t pay a dime of NJ income tax) and still service the same population. Again, at the margins and only true for some but a factor nonetheless.

    When Tepper left the state, it caused a shockwave. Imagine the equivalent of 5 Teppers worth of taxpayers leaving. Not a lot of people but a huge hole in the budget.

    And I plan on helping to make that happen.

  61. 3b says:

    Coasta Rica got rid of their military in the late 1940 s after a nasty civil war. It has been peaceful since. Another interesting fact most of the Spanish colonial settlers came from the province of Galacia in Spain.

  62. 3b says:

    I still say Amazon in the end will not choose Newark.

  63. Very Stable Genius says:

    nothing to do with money or elitism, but always sought chicks with a minimum of a Masters.
    great majority of highly educated women are progressive

    only females voted for the Donald the illiterate and/or racists, very reactionary and patriarchal

    grim says:
    January 17, 2018 at 11:29 am
    Except when you realize that people tend to marry people in their same socioeconomic strata. When both partners work, the are typically working in similar income level jobs, and this results in significant increases in household incomes at a statistical level. Not surprisingly, we’re not talking about a random pairing of individuals.

    A doctor is far more likely to marry a doctor than a janitor. And when the doctor marries the doctor, the single income household led by the janitor is going to be far, far away.

  64. 3b says:

    And don’t forget to feed the squirrels!!

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Patently not true. However, the people that don’t agree with you keep their opinions very close to the vest because of the social stigma in New Jersey. There are a lot of very liberal people that are unrepentantly outspoken and harshly closed minded.

    Very Stable Genius says:
    January 18, 2018 at 12:32 pm
    nothing to do with money or elitism, but always sought chicks with a minimum of a Masters.
    great majority of highly educated women are progressive

    only females voted for the Donald the illiterate and/or racists, very reactionary and patriarchal

  66. leftwing says:

    Nom agree.

    I’ll sign on that most of the top earners are business owners but I would not underestimate the number of NYC centric professionals – lawyers, bankers, fund managers, etc in that crowd.

    They can be as NJ outward mobile as you, even while retaining their NYC work. Some can even relocate out of the NYC area entirely.

    Also, I literally do not have enough fingers to count the WS refugees in my tiny and two adjoining towns who set up shop after leaving the hassle of Manhattan in their 40s. A top fx trader from a bulge bracket IB. Two separate HY shops. At least three wealth management groups. They relocated 5-15 minutes from their current home by choice and had the flexibility to do so. No reason they can’t be somewhere other than NJ.

    And, I suspect you can do a very good domicile business, “relocating” business owners for tax purposes to a more favored locale. Seen a few already. Keep the shorehouse (nominally an investment property, not domicile), exit the main house, set up domicile elsewhere, manage your days closely.

    It’s closer than 10-15 years. I’m at the very end of the boomers. My youngest is 20 months away from gone. Many friends are ahead of me, some a bit behind. Most of both groups are already positioning themselves for that next step. Exiting $2.5m houses to $1.0-1.25m range. One doing so who actually doubled up his five kids in BRs, knowing two are leaving next year.

    I have yet to find anyone among this group expecting they will be here for any appreciable period after their last child heads to college. To the contrary, I can easily think of at eight guys through seven figures earnings who openly express the opposite. Gone when the final kid goes.

  67. Fast Eddie says:

    only females voted for the Donald the illiterate and/or racists, very reactionary and patriarchal

    My cousin is a doctor, has her own practice, voted for Trump.

    Any questions?

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    Leftwing,

    Be sure to tell your friends contemplating NJexit that you know a guy . . .

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    Leftwing, redux,

    This is especially true of business owners that aren’t solo owners. NJ has some tricky shoals to navigate, particularly if there are minority interests that might not agree to any changes in plans. They can use minority oppression legislation to gum up the works. Not that this happens a lot (in fact, it hardly ever does) but it could.

  70. leftwing says:

    Ha. Will do.

    Know mostly the professional side. Among the business owner set is one that would be prime. Sending second child off this year. One left. Light manufacturing. High customer concentration, a handful of national large cap cos. Sources raw overseas. No client/supplier reason to be in state and not like he is on the factory floor.

  71. Libturd says:

    “I still say Amazon in the end will not choose Newark.”

    I agree. And Murphy definitely wouldn’t sweeten the deal. He’s only interested in helping the public sector and the poor. Or in other words, the base.

  72. D-FENS says:

    We also win if they choose Philadelphia or NYC.

  73. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Actually, I think he would sweeten the deal. One thing I have found in talking with people is that people who claim to be against tax breaks for specific companies forget their position entirely when it comes to amazon and don’t even realize their being hypocritical.

    In general, I think even people on the left end of the spectrum are 100% open to tax breaks for companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Tesla. When it comes to something like Exxon Mobil though, they are 100% against it.

  74. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    Perhaps you are right. But deals like this don’t ever help. It’s like hosting the Olympics. Philly would be great though.

  75. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    CNN: DEMS MOVE TO CENSURE TRUMP OVER “RACIST STATEMENTS”

    Prediction on a new movement: SCM – Sh1thole Countries Matter

  76. JCer says:

    Lib, it would be good for Newark(The gentrification would take hold and we’ll see it accelerate if Amazon moves here) and a big benefit to those in suburban Essex county(housing for amazon execs). I don’t see them opening a headquarters here even with the kings ransom of incentives, it is no ones first choice for anything. Jersey City seems like it would have a better chance of landing a company like Amazon. I would think Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Denver, Boston or Austin would be the front runners.

    Atlanta, chicago, columbus, dallas,miami, nashville, DC area, and toronto simply do not have a big enough market for tech professionals. Even for amazon your best people aren’t going to move to a market where there employer is the only employer in town. NYC metro has a good market for tech people but it is also a very expensive market to hire in.

  77. Libturd says:

    Does anyone know the package we offered? I would bet you right now that it wouldn’t be worth the gentrification of Newark. That it would be much cheaper to just to find the money somewhere else if that is the priority. These deals never work out.

  78. Libturd says:

    I’m going with Austin btw.

  79. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    Choosing Philly would be great. I’ve a house that is likely going on the market in a couple of months. Putting it outside of Philly, closer to the Blue Route, would be YUUUUUGGGE for me.

  80. Comrade Nom Deplume, The Snake Pliskin of NJ says:

    CNBC says Raleigh. My money is on Atlanta.

    But I predict now that we will start to see some ugly politicking as the red-blue divide becomes a factor and the focus turns from selling the city’s benefits to selling the competitor’s faults.

    Look for all of the ‘isms” to come from the left and all of the tax/regulation talk to come from the right.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And when they all leave to that low cost location, bam, it becomes a high cost location. It’s magic, I tell you. If you want to live in a low cost location, the avg individual has to be poor. Nj was a low cost location at one point when the nyc and philly economy were much smaller. Then all the rich came and made it into a high cost location.

    You guys love to blame democrats, or govt in general, for high cost locations. The only people responsible for a high cost location are the market participants themselves, but keep making excuses.

    Repeat after me, there is no such thing as a low cost location that pays a magical high salary. The location is low cost because nobody has money. It’s impossible to drive up the cost of anything when the avg person makes almost nothing.

    “When Tepper left the state, it caused a shockwave. Imagine the equivalent of 5 Teppers worth of taxpayers leaving. Not a lot of people but a huge hole in the budget.

    And I plan on helping to make that happen.“

  82. leftwing says:

    I’ll stick with my original predictions. Had three top picks and then Nashville as the dark horse location.

    Don’t count out cities because of lack of ‘tech’ base. The HQ will have as many general corporate professionals – legal, HR, accounting, etc. These people are fluid across industries. They’re not looking for Sand Hill Rd, otherwise they would have chosen it.

    The techies are about re-location in any case, which is about lifestyle. Young (activities, vibrancy) and older (schools, burbs). Look at those variables. Particularly in close proximity with minimal transportation hassles between the two. And techies are fairly flexible as well across certain industries. Tired of Amazon (retail, logistics) in Raleigh, go to the banks. Nashville, healthcare. Etc.

    Happy to see Columbus and Indy on list, although I don’t think they have a chance. Looking for obvious omissions, can’t really think of any (I came from the perspective that the only consideration in the West would be Denver). LA a bit of a head scratcher. Newark a super long shot.

  83. nwnj says:

    My money is still on Austin for HQ2 and AMZN is just trying to squeeze TX a bit.

    I think it would destroy a lot of the appeal of Raleigh. It’s still a fairly sleepy place. The only mass transit is bus.

    And didn’t appl just announce they are going to open a significant corporate center elsewhere? Doubt NJ has much of a shot of that either but this economy is on fire.

  84. grim says:

    Newark has a better shot than Nashville, zero mass transit, completely non-urban, despite the tiny gentrification in Nashville proper, most everyone else lives outside Nashville. Devoid of any real tech talent, similar industry. In town real estate (SFH) in desirable areas is already outrageously expensive, it would be like dropping Amazon into upper Bergen County, massive affordability crisis.

    Hell, even we pulled out of Nashville and migrated to Miami.

  85. Libturd says:

    I’ve been to Nashville. It’s not a city.

  86. grim says:

    It has 6 square blocks of city, what are you talking about.

  87. AP says:

    Newark could be a win-win. Amazon goes down in history as saviors. The ethical PR is epic. Although they could end up blamed for gentrifying the area!

  88. Libturd says:

    I know. I walked it. The only redeeming quality of the tiny city besides the Grand Old Opry (which is located next to a huge shopping mall) was the Goo Goo Clusters outlet.

  89. Libturd says:

    For what it’s worth, I am still looking for Memphis.

  90. Yo! says:

    I’m sticking with my September 19, 2017 call for Vaughan, Ontario, Canada, a Toronto suburb. Toronto has a massive market of tech professionals.

  91. Trick says:

    Not sure how accurate this foreclosure rate is, but looking a in my old town in Sussex on Zillow it has more blue dots then red. Glad we got out and moved to Morris 5 years ago

    Camden 2,329 -11%
    Ocean 2,085 10%
    Essex 2,063 -20%
    Monmouth 1,945 -4%
    Burlington 1,873 14%
    Atlantic 1,557 -10%
    Union 1,490 -12%
    Middlesex 1,401 -6%
    Gloucester 1,388 15%
    Bergen 1,360 -20%
    Passaic 1,312 -16%
    Mercer 1,100 -11%
    Hudson 852 -10%
    Morris 846 -1%
    Sussex 793 21%
    Cumberland 584 26%
    Salem 541 75%
    Somerset 477 -10%
    Warren 475 70%
    Cape May 401 -20%
    Hunterdon 237 -37%

  92. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    I’ll bet GE wouldn’t be too happy to have AMZN move to Boston.

  93. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Unless…GE reorgs and sells their under development HQ to AMZN?

  94. leftwing says:

    I’ll stick with Nashville as the dark horse candidate.

    Can’t tell you how hot it is with the young professional/college age set.

    And, again, it is not about the existing tech base for Amazon. It is about a location that these professionals are looking to move to. That’s also why TX and Denver should top anyone’s list as well.

    If they wanted tech base it would have been SF/Palo Alto or Boston suburbs, with Austin bringing up the rear. One and done. No need for a beauty contest.

  95. JCer says:

    Lib, I’m aware that the offer is akin to amazon paying no taxes and receiving money for each employee. There will be little/no economic benefit to NJ with the deal offered. If it wasn’t for the patently ridiculous subsidy being offered I don’t think Newark would be considered. Given the ridiculous subsidy, Amazon would be foolish to go elsewhere, no on else is offering anything close and when you don’t have to pay the insane taxes NJ is a good place to to do business. Also NYC is a very important market for Amazon, and for AWS fintech could be the number one customer.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone that advocates for a high cost location to become a low cost location are basically asking for people with money to leave. Simple as that.

    Example: Let’s look at vacationing market. Islands specifically. If you go on vacation in the same market as wealthy individuals, how much will that vacation cost? If you choose to go to an island that caters to lower middle class/college kids, how cheap will it be in comparison to the island that caters to the wealthy?

    Another example: Let’s take a look at supermarkets. If you shop at a low end supermarket, everything is cheap. If you shop at Whole Foods, how much will it cost? Why?

    So why do people think these market fundamentals don’t apply to states/places they live? If you think nj is too expensive, and you demand low cost, why are you living here? It’s like going to Whole Foods and crying about why the prices aren’t the same as the low cost supermarket. You are in Whole Foods, dude! People that belong here have no problem paying the price. So if you are complaining about the cost of high cost locations and comparing the cost to a low cost location, you obviously don’t belong in the high cost market. You can’t afford it. Simple as that.

    The only thing a low cost location offers, is cheap low cost pricing. That’s all it offers. That’s why it is cheap, it offers nothing to people with money except that they will save a few bucks. If you truly have money, you won’t be worrying about that chump change because you can afford it.

  97. leftwing says:

    Wish there were a way to play housing futures in specific markets.

  98. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Wouldn’t the employees have to still pay their NJ taxes?

    and when you don’t have to pay the insane taxes NJ is a good place to to do business.

  99. grim says:

    CME housing futures?

  100. Trick says:

    They should handle it like the NCAA Tournament Bracket.

    Put 2 cities up against each other and announce a winner each week, winner moves on.

  101. ExJersey says:

    2:31….on fire? I wouldn’t want to work for Apple or Amazon. Zero appeal.

  102. 3b says:

    If people belong here pay the price why is the number one complaint of people across the state property taxes?? What exactly do we have/offer that makes us so desirable so unique that we can justify these taxes. Or are just all the other states just shiteholes?

  103. JCer says:

    no one cares about their employees tax liability. The big issue here is pay, Amazon would need to pay employees a much higher wage than in Austin, raliegh, etc. I know the job markets in play for tech talent if you want to get paid it’s the bay area or NYC(I-Banks still pay for tech talent). Very high salaries to technologists are few and far between in those other markets.

  104. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I want to add another thing on this subject.

    People won’t live in the low cost locations in nj, because they are too good for that area, but they will move 900 miles south to live in a similar location. Makes absolutely no sense. Guess they think the grass is somehow greener somewhere else.

  105. leftwing says:

    This:
    “If it wasn’t for the patently ridiculous subsidy being offered I don’t think Newark would be considered.”

    Not this:
    “Given the ridiculous subsidy, Amazon would be foolish to go elsewhere…”

    Amazon doesn’t need the money, it’s just icing on the cake, an honorarium.

    I don’t know that you can overcome the transportation negatives in this area and the cost of living for anyone that doesn’t want the outer ‘burbs. They’re not going to settle in Newark. Hoboken and JC at $1k per ft2 or more for anything decent…..other cities are half that or less. Major disadvantage to recruiting outsiders here.

  106. chicagofinance says:

    Isn’t accessibility an issue? I think DC is way up there. Miami makes sense if they want to use it as a toe-hold to Latin America. Newark is minutes from an airport and considering the PATH and Amtrak, it is really positioned better than NY. Giving away the store in taxes is not a bad idea. Dallas suburbs also work. Austin culturally makes sense, but I think it is too isolated by air and not enough public transit.

    In a way, anything Newark offers, DC does too, but better. It make even cull favor in Congress longer term…..

    leftwing says:
    January 18, 2018 at 3:19 pm
    And, again, it is not about the existing tech base for Amazon. It is about a location that these professionals are looking to move to. That’s also why TX and Denver should top anyone’s list as well.

    If they wanted tech base it would have been SF/Palo Alto or Boston suburbs, with Austin bringing up the rear. One and done. No need for a beauty contest.

  107. chicagofinance says:

    Logan is a liability for Boston.

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Go live in a low cost location and then tell me why Bergen county is so much more desirable. You seem to think every where is like Bergen county when it’s not. You will find that out ridiculously fast.

    Guess what, when you get to your low cost location, you will see pockets of neighborhoods just like Bergen county. And guess what else they will have in common, they will COST MORE than Bergen County homes for the same quality of life.

    3b says:
    January 18, 2018 at 3:38 pm
    If people belong here pay the price why is the number one complaint of people across the state property taxes?? What exactly do we have/offer that makes us so desirable so unique that we can justify these taxes. Or are just all the other states just shiteholes?

  109. JCer says:

    left the same thing could be said for silicon valley. The youth will live in JC/HOB or NYC, older people in the suburbs(Bergen, Essex, Morris).

    Transportation negatives?There are at least trains, drop a campus with 50k employees in Nashville and tell me how well the roads work.

    You are having an issue getting past that because of jobs the youth are moving to these cities, NOT because they inherently want to be there.

    Top talent clusters in certain places.

    It’s not a matter of needing the money but when the state is basically going to fund your expansion you’d be foolish not to take it.

  110. leftwing says:

    JCer, maybe. Like your point on comp above better, probably nearly a full turn more for NYC and SF relative to some of the other areas.

  111. leftwing says:

    Paying 50k employees each $50k more in salary and bennies can add up quickly to offset upfronts.

    Plus, the market values on earnings……

  112. leftwing says:

    I may be totally off but reading their proposal everything needs to center around attracting the talent they want. That’s quality of life. Back to TX, Denver, etc.

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Also, to answer why they complain about taxes, it’s human nature. You don’t know this by now? People will complain about anything, it’s never enough. In the case of jersey, are these people not getting rich under the current tax system? Yet, the greed of human nature kicks in and they want it all!! It’s all mine!! Gotta love that mentality.

    How can a place that makes you rich be considered too expensive? Only to an individual drunk off greed.

  114. leftwing says:

    For the darkhorse, ‘Boken updated for this century at 1/3 the cost……

    A single young professional in his 20s can afford these. Anything even close to being similar in Hoboken or JC is at least double and out of reach. Unless Amazon is going to add $200k to the kid’s comp.

    Noodling around Austin now.

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Nashville-TN/condo,apartment_duplex,townhouse_type/108756578_zpid/6118_rid/priced_sort/36.168134,-86.772176,36.150914,-86.795243_rect/15_zm/

    https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Nashville-TN/condo,apartment_duplex,townhouse_type/2146047002_zpid/6118_rid/priced_sort/36.168134,-86.772176,36.150914,-86.795243_rect/15_zm/

  115. Fast Eddie says:

    As far as I’m concerned, choosing any location remotely close to New York is a slam dunk. Austin metro is the size of Hudson County with 2 million people while there’s 20 million here. You want talent? We got talent. Denver? Nashville? Same thing, 2 million or so. The Grand old Opry vs. “The Met?” Gimme a break.

  116. 3b says:

    More jibberish and questions not answered. Typical.

  117. 3b says:

    Amazon can move to Montvale tons of empty office buildings!! And a Wegmans!! If not one of the plans is to turn some of the space into apartments for millennials! Silly Montvale.

  118. grim says:

    15 years ago Amazon could have probably bought themselves the entire Nashville downtown, and nobody in Nashville would have complained.

  119. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Look at the rising cost of the Nashville condo, lefty. In 2008, 367,000 it sold for. In 2013 it sold 462,000. Now it’s at 600,000. See how fast the place went from cheap to jersey pricing? Why the hell would you leave jersey for a place that is rapidly rising in cost? So much for moving to that low cost location.

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Unfortunately, it’s jibberish because you don’t understand. Your question was answered.

    3b says:
    January 18, 2018 at 4:15 pm
    More jibberish and questions not answered. Typical.

  121. JCer says:

    Bingo Eddie.

    Left my old apartment in Jersey City was better than those two listings and sold for around 700k 2 years ago.

    Given the pay scale in nashville those listings are as out of reach as the Hoboken apartment is.

    If talent is the concern NYC market is a good place. Again outside of the Bay Area the NYC tech people I know make salaries far in excess of what they’d make in Austin, Raleigh or the like. There is talent here despite high costs because of high wages.

  122. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Someone gets it! No idea why the others don’t. Yes, who would want to live in the nyc metro market, only suckers pay that high cost (dripping in sarcasm).

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 18, 2018 at 4:14 pm
    As far as I’m concerned, choosing any location remotely close to New York is a slam dunk. Austin metro is the size of Hudson County with 2 million people while there’s 20 million here. You want talent? We got talent. Denver? Nashville? Same thing, 2 million or so. The Grand old Opry vs. “The Met?” Gimme a break.

  123. leftwing says:

    Fast, it’s not about size or existing talent base.

    They maintained Seattle for their entire existence for goodness sake. Seattle. If they wanted size and existing talent pool they wouldn’t have stayed there or run a beauty contest for this one.

    This is a generational type change. Look at the list of cities. Those are the ones this generation is flocking to, and the ones that will see the growth over the next decades. Lifestyle, experience, work-life balance. Basically describes what suburban NY area is not.

    Putting it directly in the city – recall my Roosevelt Isl campus posts – makes sense from the perspective of attracting employees but way too needlessly expensive for Amazon. Outside in Newark? Not a chance.

  124. JCer says:

    People actually really do want to live in Denver. Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, Salt Lake etc people will go for a job. Denver because of the outdoor lifestyle actually has a draw, people do want to live there and it has caused a big problem for people to find housing.

  125. leftwing says:

    Maybe I’m biased. I have a child majoring in CS in a top 10 engineering school. I know his college buddies. I have a business centered around children of this age. Speak with them and their parents, a lot. Especially as everyone my age has kids applying to/graduating from colleges.

    These kids are not sitting around campus dreaming about homes in Glen Rock, Ridgewood, Chatham, Summit, Short Hills. Or Wayne. They are looking at being IN most of the places on that list. They have little desire to do the same schlep they saw their parent(s) do, consuming most of their working hours and wrecking those that weren’t consumed.

    Will the high end suburbs around here always be here? Of course, the gravitational pull of NYC is too strong and an adequate lifestyle in the city proper is too expensive for most of the employees working there.

    That statement is very different from a clean page exercise to find and attract up to 50k professionals, a large number of whom will relocate, and whose median age is early to mid-30s.

  126. JCer says:

    Seattle had a pretty robust tech sector at the genesis of amazon. Something to remember…..

  127. JCer says:

    left hence the desire to be in NYC, or Hob, or JC. To Pumpkin’s point when kids come the suburbs become a desire. The kids in CS want to go to SF but the cost is bad I know some people at Google who moved from NYC to Mountain View. Quality of life sucks out there but if you want to work on exciting stuff that’s where you need to go. NYC you work on boring stuff for a Bank and are paid well, pretty much 3/5th of the people I know are engineers.

    How are your nashville listings any better than this

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/380-Newark-Ave-203-Jersey-City-NJ-07302/2091562253_zpid/

    we also have a ton of urban real estate here to redevelop…… Newark becomes real if amazon comes

  128. 3b says:

    Left good points. I would add is the traditional house in the suburbs still as desirable for a generation that is marrying much later and in many instances having one and done for children. Do two income couples who say both work in nyc and say finish work at 6:00 on an early day want the 1.5 hour or more commute home and then dinner homework baths and in bed by 10 or 11 only to have to get up and do it again the next day.

  129. leftwing says:

    Agree to disagree.

    That JC listing is on the Tpke. I was trying to do apples-to-apples, better downtown locations at each.

    I don’t know that we are saying much different. Yes, when kids come people look more to suburbs. Suburbs in the ‘secondary’ cities on that list are 20 minutes from the city downtown. Don’t need to fill you in on the stats here….

    People are flocking to these cities. They’ll meet their (likewise employed) spouses there. And settle in the suburbs there. Not meet there and relocate here.

    As I said will the suburbs around here be fine? Of course, as long as NYC is. But from what appears to be more important to this generation our suburbs aren’t necessarily top of the list.

  130. 3b says:

    It was jibberish and you did not answer the question. Go back and read the question again.

  131. ExJersey says:

    Far far far less competition for the talented in the secondary markets.

  132. JCer says:

    left there is more going on around Newark ave than in Downtown Nashville, restaurants, bars, etc and NYC is 20 minutes away.

    Secondary cities are just that again there is probably more going on in Montclair than many of the cities we are discussing. I view the secondary cities as places for those who can’t hack it in the top tier cities. If you can’t make it in NYC, SF, LA, Chi, Toronto you can go to a cheaper city like Nashville to find some success.

  133. Bystander says:

    Has Amazon done due diligence on NJ environmental agencies and other development bureaucracies that will demand their vigs. That tax break will get awfully small fast.

  134. leftwing says:

    Well, I’m going to pull out after this since you’re starting to run down the rabbit hole.

    About the only thing that downtown Newark and Nashville have in common is an equivalent NHL arena. Every other factor cuts to Nashville. Other than NYC proximity. Which if you want, even by your logic, man up and move to NYC.

    The “top tier can’t hack it” comment is narrow minded. For certain professions or situations? Of course. No one wants to be Equities in Dallas (get that reference?). Cross border hostile M&A? I did one, yeah, I want Cravath, not the regional firm. News broadcaster? Of course, NBC NY beats the local affiliate. Cancer, serious heart or ortho issues? Yes, I’ll take MSK and HSS (although MD Anderson and Mayo…). Altogether though, we are not speaking about that many people and they are the top of the top.

    For the large majority of white collar professions? Matter of personal preference. You may think you are a really, really, really special accountant, HR manager, operations director, finance director, plant manager, commercial lender, dentist, GP, PT, or HS teacher because you have 100xx as the zip code on your business card. Newsflash, you’re not.

    Your statement is akin to saying that kids go to Vanderbilt to find some success because they can’t cut it at Columbia.

    And although I don’t know your background I find it especially humorous that the “can’t hack it” statements citing NYC so frequently emanate from ‘jersey boys’ – born, bred and living here whose closest relation to the top performers in the top NYC professions is the glimpse of their offices on the upper building floors as the jersey boys sit in traffic on Rt 3.

  135. grim says:

    My comments on Nashville are based on the fact that I’ve been there 2-3x a year for at least the past 12 years. When I first started going, living in Nashville proper was not desirable, I saw the first condo conversions and new construction go up, etc. I know what hot chicken is, I know the Vanderbilt campus, I’ve been to every hot new restaurant, I’ve listened to Bluegrass at Station Inn more times than I can count. I saw the arena get built, I went to one of the first Predators games there, I own an original Hatch print.

  136. Phoenix says:

    You are talking primarily women, right? They almost never marry down, but men do it all of the time. Many male doctors marry nurses, but few female doctors marry nurses.

    except when you realize that people tend to marry people in their same socioeconomic strata.

  137. leftwing says:

    That wasn’t for you grim, was for jcer.

    Been to Nashville a few times recently. Since it is arguably the locus of healthcare services nationally I was spending 2-3 days a week there for several years with clients and partners. That was admittedly a decade ago.

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ahh, the strong smell of hate for jersey. I don’t know what your deal is with jersey, but you def have a strong hate for it.

    “And although I don’t know your background I find it especially humorous that the “can’t hack it” statements citing NYC so frequently emanate from ‘jersey boys’ – born, bred and living here whose closest relation to the top performers in the top NYC professions is the glimpse of their offices on the upper building floors as the jersey boys sit in traffic on Rt 3.“

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the truth. The top players in any profession or business are most likely going to be in one of the top tier metro areas. What happens to the professionals that can’t make it in the MLB, they go to second tier leagues. Nyc is the equivalent of the mlb when it comes to anything to do with making money. Other locations are where the people who can’t make it, go to succeed.

    Are there anomalies, ofcourse. In terms of avgs, most of the best are going to go to the most competitive markets.

    “The “top tier can’t hack it” comment is narrow minded.”

  140. D-FENS says:

    Christie says the airport story is fake news

  141. Mike S says:

    Everyone wants to live in JC, Hoboken, nyc, brooklyn etc until they have kids and have to pay for private school.

    My whole neighborhood in west/central essex has atleast one of the adults commuting to nyc. Half of them moved from NYC to here.

    Newark is a top choice for talent.

  142. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world.”
    ~Franklin D. Roosevelt

  143. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Apparently, FDR never heard of eminent domain

  144. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    My friend was working for a major bank that went bust collapse of 2008. He moved out to Denver and never looked back. 10 years ago, he loved the idea of making $50k a year and living a much higher standard of living than living in NYC. Only talked to him recently and he said that the real estate prices there have completely eroded the standard of living.

  145. J says:

    Say goodbye to even more NJ jobs!

    Expect…

    1) Corporate Attrition: Companies will go to more affordable states.

    2) Automation of low paying jobs (computers are faster, have higher quality, don’t complain, and cost less).

  146. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When I went to Key West this past summer, met a couple of people who fled Denver. They stated it’s impossible to find a house, and if you do, it will be a bidding war. They couldn’t afford it and had to leave.

    Thrre is no such thing as desirable and low cost in America anymore. If the location is still low cost, then it is not desirable.

  147. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Trick – take a look around your neighborhood and see how well the houses are being maintained. I grew up in Morris and have been following it from afar for a long time. There are houses there that have been in foreclosure for 10+ years, the banks are just not taking the final step. My theory is that it is because they’ll tank the local market if they do.

    Not sure how accurate this foreclosure rate is, but looking a in my old town in Sussex on Zillow it has more blue dots then red. Glad we got out and moved to Morris 5 years ago

  148. chicagofinance says:

    Reason I came around on Newark as an AMZN option. You are forgetting the sheer size of the company. Dropping down 50K jobs means that there is an instant critical mass of people that transform an entire area. Newark/Harrison/Ironbound gets instant gentrification. Then it is commutable to NYC / Princeton / Philly-Amtrak. I was at the Barclays Center a couple of weeks ago with my son. I know that area. 4 Avenue was at the bottom of the hill. Fort Greene. that was a large sh!tty area. Newark has most of the big stuff already in place. it won’t take much to en masse condemn blocks and blocks of sh!thole and turn it into a millennial masturbat!on center. don’t think Hoboken/JC.. think Brooklyn. Hudson County is being slapped together by a bunch of guinea hacks from the old school. this is more of a higher end brownfield to gentrifield.

    Mike S says:
    January 18, 2018 at 7:01 pm
    Everyone wants to live in JC, Hoboken, nyc, brooklyn etc until they have kids and have to pay for private school.

    My whole neighborhood in west/central essex has atleast one of the adults commuting to nyc. Half of them moved from NYC to here.

    Newark is a top choice for talent.

  149. Two Times Head and Three Secret Degrees I said...in a spray can says:

    Still a better choice than Sussex, though.

  150. grim says:

    Well, either way, we have 3 out of 20. That’s a 15% chance NJ benefits. I like those odds.

  151. Fast Eddie says:

    I 2nd the Newark location, especially for what ChiFi stated

  152. chicagofinance says:

    WTF? That is Pumpkin math…… you are better

    grim says:
    January 18, 2018 at 8:53 pm
    Well, either way, we have 3 out of 20. That’s a 15% chance NJ benefits. I like those odds.

  153. ExJersey says:

    6:21 i married up. Way up. We had parity twice in our lives, once when we first met and later 10 years in. Then her career took off. It aint terrible.

  154. blarff says:

    if anyone seriously thinks amazon will go to newark i will cover your bet. at this point, they do need an east coast presence (for both proximity to customers and clients as well as legislators). but as someone else alluded, what does newark offer that nyc doesn’t? cost of labor will be the same in either location. nyc has better access to airports. and do you think amazon gives a sh1t about real estate prices for offices?

    if i were an amazon board member, id be looking to see who i could f@ck the hardest. that means either a location that would enable me to co-opt the local jurisdiction in perpetuity (deep south) or one that provides me a seat at the “adults” table (i.e. where i could cozy up close with the financiers and competent DC graft enablers. newark doesnt pass either test.

    plus, to its credit, nj just isnt a “bottom”. they like to be the ones who do the f@cking, thank you very much.

  155. chicagofinance says:

    I take Newark over NYC…… I think DC over Newark though.

    Remember, Newark airport is a short Uber ride.

    The PATH would certainly be extended to the Monorail stop in a flash…..

    Arena in place. NJPAC. Redbulls arena.

    Just sayin’.

    Quite a bit of the big a%%ed BS already locked and loaded.

    blarff says:
    January 18, 2018 at 9:22 pm
    if anyone seriously thinks amazon will go to newark i will cover your bet. at this point, they do need an east coast presence (for both proximity to customers and clients as well as legislators). but as someone else alluded, what does newark offer that nyc doesn’t? cost of labor will be the same in either location. nyc has better access to airports. and do you think amazon gives a sh1t about real estate prices for offices?

    if i were an amazon board member, id be looking to see who i could f@ck the hardest. that means either a location that would enable me to co-opt the local jurisdiction in perpetuity (deep south) or one that provides me a seat at the “adults” table (i.e. where i could cozy up close with the financiers and competent DC graft enablers. newark doesnt pass either test.

    plus, to its credit, nj just isnt a “bottom”. they like to be the ones who do the f@cking, thank you very much.

  156. chicagofinance says:

    also EWR has national and international flights to fcuking everywhere DIRECT

  157. blarff says:

    chicago finance:

    are you sure you are a UofC capitalist? with thought patterns like this you seem more like a columbia university soci@list:

    “Reason I came around on Newark as an AMZN option. You are forgetting the sheer size of the company. Dropping down 50K jobs means that there is an instant critical mass of people that transform an entire area.”

    by your logic, a company should relocate to an area just because it is ripe to be tranformed. with that logic, why not speculate that they move to compton? after all, it is close to LA and in need of gentrification.

  158. 3b says:

    According to a Long Island Rauch foundation report on CBS local 4 out of 10 long island millennial are still living at home. And 7 out of 10 plan to move to a less expensive area within 5 years although they would rather not. I guess they are all a bunch of second tier losers.

  159. blarff says:

    if jersey is lucky, it may get the typical spillover of backoffice jobs.

    too bad those will be outsourced by grim in short order(!) but not to worry. according to him, small business owners are the true wealth creators in nj. snicker.

  160. 3b says:

    Choc all valid points in fact compelling in some instances. At the end of the day I still think they look at the negatives and pass.

  161. 3b says:

    Well then the small business owners won’t be able to continue to create wealth if the other jobs are outsourced. Can’t have one without the other.

  162. 3b says:

    Fast no disrespect but I tell you since you purchased a house you have changed. Never thought you were th r rah rah type.

  163. blarff says:

    3b. it’s not just you. many regulars that used to post with dispassionate logic seem to be talking out of their asses lately.

    look at grim. he’s deluded himself into thinking all the economic activity of the pharma and IT workers he is outsourcing is going to be relaced by small businesses. i wonder how much he’s paying his distillery employees?

    as if the “artisan economy” (aka side hustle) is a sustainable and scalable economic policy. tuh.

  164. Fabius Maximus says:

    Austin, Nashville, Denver can’t take that influx of jobs that quickly. They are coping with their own growth of the past 10 years. The talent pool is not that deep locally.

    Amazons rise in Seattle was a slow lift, but at the end of the day, NorthWest is tapped out in Tech Growth. Finding Space in Newark will be the issue.

    But at the end of the day I suspect that the 50K numbers will not materialize in the winning City. I see the expansion internationally.

    Here is an interesting piece.
    https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/12/03/tech-reverse-migration-rivers-pkg.cnn

  165. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Now that it’s pretty much proven that Donald Trump had an extramarital affair ”

    Melania should start d1vorce proceeding immediately. Isn’t that right Gary?

  166. Fabius Maximus says:

    “My friend was working for a major bank that went bust collapse of 2008. He moved out to Denver and never looked back. ”

    I met a lot of people who took the package to move from NYC to Charlotte. The big house was nice for the first year or so. Their problem was there was nowhere to jump laterally and no real way back to NYC.

  167. Fabius Maximus says:

    DC has a strong case.

    https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/global-infrastructure/

    New Region (coming soon)
    AWS GovCloud (US-East)

  168. chicagofinance says:

    NJ is giving away the store…..

    Newark is an armpit. However, it has infrastructure that many areas in the country would kill for.

    If there is an opportunity to nuke the site from orbit (it’s the only way to be sure) and start over, how does that not work?

    EWR is a big asset, as is the PATH and Amtrak…..

    blarff says:
    January 18, 2018 at 9:34 pm
    chicago finance:

    are you sure you are a UofC capitalist? with thought patterns like this you seem more like a columbia university soci@list:

    “Reason I came around on Newark as an AMZN option. You are forgetting the sheer size of the company. Dropping down 50K jobs means that there is an instant critical mass of people that transform an entire area.”

    by your logic, a company should relocate to an area just because it is ripe to be tranformed. with that logic, why not speculate that they move to compton? after all, it is close to LA and in need of gentrification.

  169. blarff says:

    zuckerburg chose to flush $100m down newark’s toilets rather than establish any type of footprint there. no questions asked.

    in the end that is what is called smart money. “i like you, but i don’t ‘like you’ like you”.

  170. blarff says:

    chicago:

    “If there is an opportunity to nuke the site from orbit (it’s the only way to be sure) and start over, how does that not work?”

    that is a big…and unknowingly expensive…”if”.

  171. blarff says:

    give away the store? maybe some candy up front. but in the end amazon would find itself shaken down like a farm boy in a brothel in newark. so many hands in their pockets. all so,they can take trains and ubers to ewr and nyc? and develop the community? pass. please return your diploma. rockefeller is rolling in his grave.

  172. leftwing says:

    “The [Austin, Dallas, Nashville] talent pool is not that deep locally.”

    No place is seamlessly absorbing anywhere near 50,000 new corporate jobs with the local workforce.

    Today, new jobless claims fell to a 48 year low. The national unemployment rate was at a 17 year low at 4.1%.

    A quick sampling of some of the 20 locations show most under that rate. The only outlier I see is Philly (6.0%), and I doubt those are all unemployed programmers and corporate managers hanging around Rittenhouse Square.

    For the last time guys, the selection is all about where the target workers will RELOCATE. Look at the target employees’ age, required skill levels, and demographic and ask that group “Where do you want to live?” The top answers will give you the final three locations.

  173. leftwing says:

    Popped Newark’s proposal up again after reading chifi’s post. While not expecting them to win I’ll move them up toward the middle of the list.

    The proposed locations make a lot of sense. Right around either train station, not in some brownfield on the other side of the tracks. They appear to be ‘available’.

    Downside is in-fill building something that massive in a three century old Eastern city. Barclay’s was mentioned, I think that was six years from proposal to groundbreaking, another two years to completion. Pru was shorter, but the site was larger and IIRC had fewer ED issues with only two primary owners.

    My gut still says no. Amazon would have to pay a big salary premium over other locales and it would still be a hard sell. If you’re not from here, or landing a job in NYC, there just aren’t many people looking to move to metro NJ.

    Nice Devs win over the Caps. Too bad the Queen made a blind save across the river for a W.

  174. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It’d be funny if it was Boston. The New York area already sends so much money here on their kids’ four to five year vacations. Add that to GE and AMZN money, maybe I’ll be buying a highway house.

    Hahahahahahahahahahaha!

    Maybe FB too?

  175. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Tech note: 800K “officially registered ” DACA “kids”.
    Fact note: 3.6 million US illegal aliens in the same age range.

    Make a DACA deal on 800K and you just made a deal on 5 million additional Democrat future votes…and that’s before chain migration.

  176. Juice Box says:

    Here is a good deal if you want your kids to learn to play Hockey.

    https://learntoplay.nhl.com/devils&lang=#gearup

    Lessons and equipment

    Locations

    Middletown $295
    Newark $75
    Secaucus $150.00
    Staten Island $150.00
    Princeton only $25.00
    Bayonne $50.00
    Lawrenceville $25.00
    Stockholm $100.00

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