At what point do we say “recovered” and at what point do we say “bubble”?

From CNBC:

Home Prices Hit Records in Almost Two-Thirds of U.S. Cities

Home prices jumped to all-time highs in almost two-thirds of U.S. cities in the fourth quarter as buyers battled for a record-low supply of listings.

Prices for single-family homes, which climbed 5.3 percent from a year earlier nationally, reached a peak in 64 percent of metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Of the 177 regions in the group’s survey, 15 percent had double-digit price growth, up from 11 percent in the third quarter.

Home values have grown steadily as the improving job market drives demand for a scarcity of properties on the market. While prices jumped 48 percent since 2011, incomes have climbed only 15 percent, putting purchases out of reach for many would-be buyers.

Sales of previously owned homes, including single-family houses and condos, increased 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.62 million in the fourth quarter, the Realtors said. At the end of December, only 1.48 million existing homes were available for sale, 10.3 percent less than a year earlier.

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121 Responses to At what point do we say “recovered” and at what point do we say “bubble”?

  1. grim says:

    Quick anecdote – We’re seeing absolutely tremendous wage pressures all across the US right now. It is absolutely staggering, north of $2 increase year over year to get the same quality hire. We’re talking about nearly 20% impacts, not 2.5% impacts. It does not appear to be slowing or plateauing.

  2. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Very interesting grim. Thanks.

  3. Very Stable Genius says:

    @bessbell

    This is not a political issue. This is not a Constitutional debate. This is a pandemic that’s killing children. And it’s perpetrated by hypocrites who preach a doctrine of “life” but take money from a profit-driven gun lobby. @RoyBlunt @SenatorBurr @SenThomTillis @SenCoryGardner

  4. D-FENS says:

    To this day, the school massacre with the highest death toll in the US was Bath, MI. The perpetrator used dynamite and killed 44 people and wounded 58.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_School_disaster

    side note…he did it for a few issues including high property taxes.

    A Home Buyer says:
    February 14, 2018 at 10:19 pm
    BRT,

    Just my opinion here, but less guns, more guns, officers, metal detectors,etc. are not solutions but patches.

    These individuals will still be out there. We are not fixing the root problems driving people to these horrendous acts.

  5. Very Stable Genius says:

    @brianschatz

    It is one of the great moral failures of American society that we allow kids to get killed in schools.

    No one thing can fix this, but doing absolutely nothing makes it worse.

    And although I understand politics well it still shocks my conscience that this falls along Party lines.

  6. D-FENS says:

    I can see why home schooling is becoming more popular these days.

  7. TING says:

    Makes one wonder how the families across the Middle East feel when Hellfire missiles rain from the sky and blow up their homes and kill their children. Do they feel the same for the senseless killings of their children?

  8. Libturd says:

    More kids die of the flu each year than in school related shootings. Yet tons of parents don’t inoculate their kids against it. So lets put things into perspective here. Humans are such feeble-minded animals who don’t understand math.

    Yes these school shootings suck. But it’s really not about guns. There’s an underlying cause behind it. If I were to guess what it was, I would bet on the income gap and the need for people to work so much harder than they used to to keep up. Less time to love and condition their kids into being normal human beings.

    But to put a police officer in every school won’t make a difference and it’s a very expensive solution to a tiny problem. Heck, 250 kids a year die in alcohol related auto accidents. Shouldn’t we ban alcohol?

    Parents. Don’t worry. The odds of your kid being shot in school are just slightly better than your odds of winning the powerball.

  9. D-FENS says:

    We have an ex cop as a security guard in my kids grade school (public school). It’s not a total solution but days like these I’m glad he’s there.

  10. Very Stable Genius says:

    @kurteichenwald

    Now it will all happen again.
    GOPrs tweet “thoughts & prayers.” Dems will call for gun control. Fox will attack that as politicizing tragedy. Everyone will blab on TV.
    Then we’ll do nothing, move on, & hope the next mass shooting victim isnt one of OUR loved ones.

    We’re pathetic

  11. Juice Box says:

    Several New Jersey towns voted to have school resource officers, some spent money on bulletproof glass Millburn?

  12. Bart says:

    Seems like in every shooting, the kid with the gun gives numerous indications (social media and other) of not only their intent, but their pain and yet there seems to be no proactive action by a parent, teacher, law enforcement or other BEFORE the horrendous act takes place. This one, the kid posted I believe multiple times on FB and what I do not understand is why FB has no algo to pick up the pattern and then communicate to the right person(s) or institutions. The problems the kid in Newtown had were known and the parent left the gun(s) and ammo unlocked. Locking them up may not have stopped him from going elsewhere for guns, but it speaks volumes about the parent.

    As for the .223, its nasty ammo as it fragments and tears flesh and does what it is designed to do.

    Being a parent means more than performing the act of procreation. Social media seems to put undue pressure on kids. Are we all of weaker character now? After Newtown, an elderly man posted that when he was a child, in the elementary school their was a shooting range in the basement with unlocked guns and ammo and no problems ever. He pondered what had changed in the decades since he was a child.

  13. Juice Box says:

    Grim it sounds like Rising wages is good for your business. How many Outsourcing deals in your the pipeline 2 3 4?

  14. A Home Buyer says:

    D-FENS,

    I don’t disagree. But its still a band aid and the individual who would commit this type of act is still out there not recieving any help.

    Its just sad that we are still only going after the low hanging fruit instead of taking a real look at ourselves and this messed up society we live in and trying to fix these real issues that lead an individual to commit such a act.

    If we cannot trust our populace with a firearm, how do we expect to trust our society moving forward with the technologies of tomorrow?

  15. Juice Box says:

    The BLS should create a new jobs index called the Grimdex that counts jobs offshored.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    It is absolutely staggering, north of $2 increase year over year to get the same quality hire.

    Explain. I don’t know what this means.

  17. Juice Box says:

    Bart Facebook and other social media has the ability to filter for that kind of content, however it’s not good business to be a good citizen

  18. Juice Box says:

    Edddie it means more jobs going offshore, a wage growth Spike hurts the bottom line.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    So, basically, if you’re not a plumber or electrician, there’s not much more to do?

  20. grim says:

    More kids die of the flu each year than in school related shootings. Yet tons of parents don’t inoculate their kids against it. So lets put things into perspective here. Humans are such feeble-minded animals who don’t understand math.

    Solid point.

  21. Very Stable Genius says:

    @brianklaas

    The last mass school shooting in the UK happened in 1996. It sparked stricter gun laws. There haven’t been any major school shootings in the last 22 years.

    The US has already had 12 school shootings, including one of the worst in US history, in the first six weeks of 2018.

  22. No One says:

    While it doesn’t mean I want to ban or restrict them, I do suspect that the movies and video games and rap music that glorifies weapons and killing does influence that 1 in a 100,000 of creepy wackos who mostly fit the profile of mass murderers. (loner, obsessive, cruel to animals and people, have revenge fantasies). Only thing missing so far is the “crazy eyes” photo. Before the media and video games, they probably just killed a few people and got caught. Now they copy what they see on TV/Movies/Games and go out in a blaze of destruction. But 99.9% of people can watch/play that stuff without ever having the slightest in killing people.
    If we took the UK approach of gun control, those people could kill a few people by running them over and stabbing them, maybe reduce the death count a bit.

  23. Libturd says:

    “Are we all of weaker character now?”
    Unequivocally, yes!

    I am not pro-bullying in any way, shape or form. But we have puss1fied our children to the point where they can no longer deal with any adversity whatsoever. This is what has changed. Social media is not to blame. It’s the new style of parenting. Everything positive. Johnny steals your car keys and crashes the family car into a telephone poll. The parents say, well we needed a new car. Nice job Johnny. Then when the team captain picks Johnny last for the kickball game, Johnny throws a conniption. Johnny then goes home to tell his parents and his parents say, “Johnny, they were saving the best for last.” It’s no wonder these kids tend to take their parents our before their friends.

    I’m not making this sh1t up.

    Gator Jr.’s hockey team clinched 1st place in North Jersey. It’s a weak division and they deserved it. They have not beaten a single one of the top three teams in the south division, though they were winning in every one of those losses. When a team is strong, his team of mentally weak snowflakes implodes and takes stupid retaliating penalty after retaliating penalty. If they get nutmegged or beat by an opposing player, they immediately slash them. In our last two games alone, they’ve had 8 or 9 unwarranted penalties resulting in two losses against far inferior opponents. So what does the c0ach advise them after the second game? He tells them that they accomplished everything they set out to do this year and don’t sweat these final two losses. In light of this, I made a bet with my son, my $10 to his $1 on over 8 penalties in his first playoff game next weekend. For the record, my son has never retaliated in his 6 years of travel hockey and probably has the least amount of penalties on his team, which is amazing as he plays defense. I can’t be sure as keeping stats could hurt the feelings of the kids who are not on top of the leaderboard.

    So how do we teach our kids to deal with adversity? I constantly remind my kid that life’s not fair and sticks and stones won’t break his bones. I’m also extremely tough on him so he can learn to deal with it. I essentially balance my love with my tough love. Reward and punishment. And my kid continues to be an incredibly empathetic person.

    Does anyone else here agree with me that we are creating this nightmare where kids are up and willing to shoot their classmates? The AR-19 did not make this kid do it.

  24. ex-Jersey says:

    Py

  25. ex-Jersey says:

    Learn to Code

  26. nwnj says:

    A lot of Home schooling is an ideology choice and not saferty. Progressive Brain rot has inflicted the education system. Half of these school administrators spend their time figuring out which bathrooms a kid should use and how to jigger some standardized test scores.

  27. Libturd says:

    You know, home schooling is one step away from nudist colony.

  28. ex-Jersey says:

    I love how half- literate house fraus think they can educate anyone let alone their kid.

  29. Yo! says:

    NJ home prices – we can’t say recovered and we can’t say bubble. NJ home prices are below the level of 10 years ago and across swaths of the state, prices are still falling.

    In some parts of the state, the housing market is healthy. Here is the price history of the most recent home sale in Hoboken.

    http://tax1.co.monmouth.nj.us/cgi-bin/m4.cgi?district=0905&l02=090500020____00010____C000DM

  30. Mostly Gibberish says:

    The key here is for schools to win back some trust. Being lax on this idiot and sending him out of district, when he should have probably been locked up on gun charges is one point of failure in the chain. The other is simply not ‘securing’ the facility. Simple.

  31. Mostly Gibberish says:

    Finger pointing is useless. At this point gun control is irrelevant. The horse has left the barn. What needs to happen is that there needs to be a tightening on the restraints. Kid’s who threaten need to be held, evaluated, and if necessary chemically castrated to remove any chance of reproduction.

  32. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Explain. I don’t know what this means.”

    It means it wasn’t the Tax Cuts!

  33. Libturd says:

    How do you secure a facility. I’ve had to drop other kid’s sh1t off at our high school because they left it in my car when I carpooled their kid to school. I hit a button and say I’m dropping off some kids lunch that was left in my car. No ID, they have no clue who I am. I have an AR-15 hidden under my coat easily. You can’t stop someone from hurting innocent people if they want to. Ask the Japanese pilots who kamikaze-ed Pearl Harbor.

  34. Libturd says:

    There are around 350,000 schools in this country. Seems like it would be cheaper and much more cost effective to hire a person who monitors social media in each school to look for clues of a mentally challenged kids, than to turn our schools into prisons of learning because there’s one bad apple a year in our country. Due the math!

  35. Not Libturd says:

    A big missing piece of the jigsaw is that “they” are nutz.

    The draft was great for society. Why? Because it acted as a societal filter separating mentally ill out, medically discharging them into the VA.

    Mental illness shows up in the teenage years. A schizoaffecttive kid under the effect of the disease and not knowing he has it can do a lot of damage. There are tons of mental illness disease variations. Is like diabetes. The thing is to know that you have it. Once you do, you are aware of it, it’s signs and symptoms and take care of it.

    Disguised psych evaluation and screening starting in middle school along with the plethora of “learning” tests presently given would do a lot to spot and deal with the problem.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Fabius,

    What are you talking about?

  37. Fabius Maximus says:

    “The AR-19 did not make this kid do it”
    Guns don’t kill people, people kill people!
    What about the Swiming Pools?

    At this point how about some sensible suggestions on how to lower the kill rate.

  38. Fabius Maximus says:

    Gary,

    “It is absolutely staggering, north of $2 increase year over year to get the same quality hire.”

    $ 1,000 bonuses are not due to tax cuts they are all about staff retention.

  39. Libturd says:

    “At this point how about some sensible suggestions on how to lower the kill rate.”

    I’m not so sure this will make a major difference. That’s all I’m saying. How about the Dems take the high road for a change and stop taking PAC/lobbyist dollars and use these shootings as an example of of why lobbyist dollars are poisoning our government? Nah, that’s too easy. Better to keep taking the money and worry about the real issues like which bathroom Shaun should use.

  40. Libturd says:

    And keep reappointing that floundering fool Pelosi to lead the charge.

  41. Mostly Gibberish says:

    10:00 — EZ — entry way is a cage — metal detector and lo-level Xray — you enter — pause a sec and proceed. Bad Shit underneath? TAZEEEE

  42. Bart says:

    No one wants to do the heavy lifting to address this problem which is why it continues to happen. In many other aspects of current American life the heavy lifting is also absent. Lib, I appreciate your comments to my question but I don’t think its just the kids who have become soft.

    Maybe it’s time to bring back the draft. Structure and discipline are good for individuals and nations. If anyone needs an example, attend the 4th of July concert at West Point and watch the plebs march in for the first time. They haven’t even been there more than a few days but already they march in perfect straight lines. Ain’t no BS at WP and if there is, the perp is walking the courtyard in full dress for 8+ hours straight during the weekend while their peers get a day of rest. There are clear rules and ramifications for not following them.

  43. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I concur.

    But we have puss1fied our children to the point where they can no longer deal with any adversity whatsoever. This is what has changed. Social media is not to blame. It’s the new style of parenting. Everything positive.

    Does anyone else here agree with me that we are creating this nightmare where kids are up and willing to shoot their classmates? The AR-19 did not make this kid do it.

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, I saw a pair of kids from that HS, two brothers being interviewed. One of them had been paired up with the shooter for a project two years ago. He said the kid didn’t talk much and kept to himself, but when he got paired up with him he opened up. He said he had already been kicked out of two private schools. That to me sounds like a family with resources who could have done something.

  45. joyce says:

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/15/news/economy/drug-imports-canada/index.html

    It’s pretty arrogant of the drug companies wanting the US market to pay for their R&D and profits… and want the US Government to aid them in selling internationally as well.

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The shooter was wearing a school shirt too. I recognize the Eagles logo on his sleeve as matching one of the kids who were being interviewed last night.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43071710

  47. Libturd says:

    Can we draft the parents too?

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    $ 1,000 bonuses are not due to tax cuts they are all about staff retention.

    Despite the fact that scores of companies mentioned the $1000 bonus was due to the tax cuts?

  49. Ottoman says:

    Gary believes everything companies tell him. Gary is a moron.

    Fast Eddie says:
    February 15, 2018 at 10:55 am
    $ 1,000 bonuses are not due to tax cuts they are all about staff retention.

    Despite the fact that scores of companies mentioned the $1000 bonus was due to the tax cuts?

  50. Ottoman says:

    50 comments so far and no one in the brain trust here mentions the overwhelming misogyny and hatred of women which pervades these mass shootings. Doesn’t surprise me seeing how many here openly hate women. It’s men’s fragile egos that ignite a lot of these murders. Easy access to guns is their fuel.

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    Ottoman,

    And you’re a weak, little, f.ucking cuck.

  52. Fabius Maximus says:

    Lib,

    So it’s all down to the Dems and their PACs?

    If you call a straight game, you’re part of the problem.

  53. Yo! says:

    Let us steer the discussion back to NJ real estate. 50+ post and just one so far on topic (9:46 am).

  54. Very Stable Genius says:

    @AriFleischer

    Some of the biggest errors Pres. Trump has made are what he did NOT say.
    He did not immediately condemn the KKK after Charlottesville.
    He did not immediately condemn domestic violence or offer sympathy for Rob Porter’s ex-wives.
    He should speak today about the school shooting.

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Hey Ottoman,

    My company just upped the 401K match because of the tax cuts. You’re a real, angry, piece of sh1t. Go wallow in your misery, like the miserable, p.ussy f.uck that you are.

  56. Very Stable Genius says:

    @kylegriffin1

    The IRS and Justice Department have issued subpoenas for documents from lenders and investors in real estate projects managed by Jared Kushner’s family, a person familiar with the matter tells Bloomberg.

  57. Libturd says:

    Joyce,

    I used to go grocery shopping in Mexico when ever I went down there (about monthly) when I lived in Cali. It’s not just the drug makers. You could get Dannon yogurt for example, 25 cents each, not on sale. Cheese was half the price and forget about the price of eggs. But the processed American foods were always half to one third of what they cost back at Albertsons.

  58. joyce says:

    The blog title and masthead says this:

    “New Jersey Real Estate Report
    Real Estate, Economics, and Politics”

    It doesn’t say this:
    “Hudson County NJ”

    Yo! says:
    February 15, 2018 at 11:09 am
    Let us steer the discussion back to NJ real estate. 50+ post and just one so far on topic (9:46 am).

  59. Libturd says:

    “Lib,

    So it’s all down to the Dems and their PACs?

    If you call a straight game, you’re part of the problem.”

    Not my point. I’m just expressing some advice to the Dems, of who I usually support when they deal with REAL issues that affect more than just their already converted minorities. Heck, Otto, the local Goebbels here for the Dem playbook, is still convinced that misogyny is only a Republican issue as blue donor after donor gets carted off to court. There is a sickness in this one.

    Don’t you wish the DNC didn’t flatten Bernie?

  60. Libturd says:

    Real estate. There’s not much to talk about when the cycles change so damn slowly. If it excites any of the downers here. I’m seeing a lot of vacancies among the minimalls on 22 in Union as new construction is simultaneously building more retail where say, the Indian Motorcycle dealership used to be. Usually, this is the sign of overbuilding.

  61. joyce says:

    Right. I’m not sure of the legalities of (re)importing yogurt or other packaged goods but I don’t think the spreads are worth it financially. In other industries like pharmaceuticals, it definitely would be. Another example is college textbooks, the supreme court actually upheld the first sale doctrine in that scenario. It would be a game changer for pharmaceuticals worldwide (pros and cons, but I think more pros).
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/03/thai-student-protected-by-first-sale-supreme-court-rules/

    Libturd says:
    February 15, 2018 at 11:18 am
    Joyce,

    I used to go grocery shopping in Mexico when ever I went down there (about monthly) when I lived in Cali. It’s not just the drug makers. You could get Dannon yogurt for example, 25 cents each, not on sale. Cheese was half the price and forget about the price of eggs. But the processed American foods were always half to one third of what they cost back at Albertsons.

  62. leftwing says:

    “Just another guy with an AR-15.
    Let me know if we ever get past “too soon!””

    Here’s a hint….the time for banning semi-automatic rifles is alongside a bill banning the single largest killing machine in our society today. The automobile.

    If you believe that weapons ought to be banned in an attempt to prevent school firearms deaths, you are a hypocrite if you don’t support banning automobiles to prevent DWI deaths. 10,497 last year, of which 1,132 were children under 14.

    If you are going to throw in the towel on any rationale discussion of root causes and prevention and go to an all-out ban, do both. Or admit those 10,497 lives just don’t matter that much.

    Or admit the truth, which is that these shootings are nothing more than political posturing for you.

  63. 3b says:

    I find the Hudson co updates interesting. It shows where the growth is and that in my mind at least this back to the cities/urban trend is here to stay.

  64. leftwing says:

    “@brianschatz
    And although I understand politics well it still shocks my conscience that this falls along Party lines.”

    It shocks my intellect that liberals believe weapons ban = end to school deaths.
    Simpletons.

  65. ex-Jersey says:

    11:06 i’ve never heard someone call another a cuck face-to-face, cause if you did i’d pull my flaccid d$vk out of my pants and slap your fat little cheeks with it…f@ggit

  66. Fabius Maximus says:

    left,

    When we mandated the use of seat belts in cars, what did that do to the fatality rate? It didn’t go to zero, but it had a huge impact.

    How about taking a similar sized step here.

  67. Grim says:

    What’s the equivalent of a seat belt?

    Mandatory mental health screening annually. Kids need a physical and vaccinations, why not add mental health screening?

    All information at this point indicates that everyone knew this kid was a violent psychopath. Yet nobody did anything? They expelled him from schools, sent him to other districts?

    Sounds more like they tried to brush this kid off in hopes he would disappear.

    At what point are we going to start holding parents, family, teachers, police accountable.

  68. Grim says:

    What, then, do you do with a mentally ill psychopath kid anyway?

    Lock them up pre-emptively?

    Institutionalization?

  69. Grim says:

    Parents today flip out at the idea of academic and aptitude assessment – do we honestly think we can even screen for these kids without scores of parents crying bloody murder over classifying their snowflakes as dangerous?

  70. ex-Jersey says:

    12:15 Bingo. But this kid was in what Adoptive care, foster? Nuclear family goes? Booooom

  71. leftwing says:

    “What’s the equivalent of a seat belt?

    Mandatory mental health screening annually. Kids need a physical and vaccinations, why not add mental health screening?….At what point are we going to start holding parents, family, teachers, police accountable.”

    Now we’re talking. Not just what liberals want to hear.

    Sandy Hook killer was also known to be a nut job. Mom left weapons out and available.

    What’s a seat belt?

    Laws mandating proper handling and storage of weapons? Strict liability (including criminal) for anyone violating? What if that mom got charged with murder? Do it.

    Back to the DWI and car analogy, the above sounds a lot like the dram laws which also had a measurable effect. But, notably, did not bring DWI deaths anywhere near zero.

    Ban cars or firearms all you want. Addicts will find a way for a drink and drive, sociopaths will find a way to kill.

  72. JCer says:

    Fab the problem is making the guns illegal doesn’t make them go away……wishful thinking but not a real solution.

  73. Hold my beer says:

    30 year mtg rate is now 4.38%.

    Still seems cheap. I remember double digit rates when I was a kid and 8% rates back in 2000.

    Of course back in 1998-2000 you could buy a 3 bedroom ranch in Edison or hazlet for 120k

  74. JCer says:

    That textbook thing is interesting when I was in college I used to sell indian edition textbooks on ebay, it was a quick money maker. $100 textbooks are made in a low cost edition that sells for $5 with shipping from india $25. I was a pure middle man, sell for $40-$50, drop ship from india make a quick $10-$20 profit with no work. I was selling to classmates for like $25 buying and shipping in volume was cheaper. It wasn’t a big money maker but it paid for the bar, probably was making $600 bucks a semester for literally doing nothing.

  75. Xolepa says:

    Yeah, Grim. It’s about time you get that creepy map of Hudson out of the blog statics. I need to hide in my safe space here in Hunterdon every time my eye focuses on that sh!thole county. I also feel geographically misappropriated.

  76. Very Stable Genius says:

    yes, Medicare for all

    Grim says:
    February 15, 2018 at 12:12 pm

    Mandatory mental health screening annually.

  77. Not Grimsky says:

    Grim, there are very big differences.

    Schizoaffective/Schizophrenic/Psychotics – need their meds and supervision.

    Socio/Psychopath is another problem entirely. Look up Hare/Levenson scales or buy The Wisdom of Psychopaths: What Saints, Spies, and Serial Killers Can Teach Us About Success,” by Kevin Dutton

    These are societal sharks, most with very little impulse control and are already in jail. Very few get to realize their talents and learn to manage it – they are your CEO’s right before the FBI/IRS/SEC comes thru the door.

    But all of them have a highly sought out talent – cool under pressure – no emotional link activated. Highest professions with sociopathic tendencies – 1. CEO 2. Lawyer 3. Media (Television/Radio) 4. Salesperson 5. Surgeon 6. Journalist 7. Police officer 8. Clergy person 9. Chef 10. Civil servant

    Q-What, then, do you do with a mentally ill psychopath kid anyway?

    Lock them up pre-emptively?

    Institutionalization?

  78. Libturd says:

    Can we screen Moana first?

  79. Juice Box says:

    More on the shooter. Police were aware of him, they were called more than once because he was trying to murder the neighbors chickens with a gun.

    “Police were called out numerous times, and Shelby said Cruz was seen shooting at a neighbor’s chickens.”

    Why no arrest? If you discharge a firearm in my town you are getting arrested. Are they that lax in Florida on discharging firearms in a residential area?

    “Cruz was wearing a wine-colored ROTC polo shirt, black pants and black boots, when he was taken into custody.”

    Perhaps getting kicked out of school ruined his chances of a career in the military, he was gun nut and JROTC?

    Death of mom a few months ago, he moved back to the area from Palm Beach County to Broward near the school. I gather by himself (planning for revenge) and left his younger brother behind.

    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/parkland/florida-school-shooting/fl-school-shooting-cruz-20180214-story.html

  80. Very Stable Genius says:

    @tonyschwartz

    Heartbreak again.
    A disturbed 19-year-old has easy access to an AR 15 semi-automatic rifle. How insane is that? Only in America. Our gun laws provide a license to kill — anyone, anywhere, anytime, for any reason.

  81. Alex says:

    Perhaps in light of the school shooting we reevaluate the need to gather children in classrooms of aging buildings, for half the year taught by mostly mediocre teachers, where vast sums of taxpayer money gets funneled through a black hole and vanishes.

    Why not try internet courses taught by the best teachers in each subject?

    To put the amount of money taxpayers are spending on schools into perspective, let’s use our favorite “punching bag”, the good old mid-size town of Montclair where next year’s school budget is a whopping 120 million dollars. 120 million dollars could buy 60 thousand $20,000 vehicles. 60 thousand!!

  82. Alex says:

    Check that, 6 thousand $20,000 vehicles.

  83. D-FENS says:

    In Switzerland everyone joins the militia and are issued a full auto assault rifle. I suppose it happens, but I don’t hear a whole lot about mass shootings there.

  84. D-FENS says:

    Notably also one of the only countries in Europe that wasn’t dragged into two bloody world wars.

  85. 3b says:

    Hold and that is the difference between now and than rate wise and house price wise!

  86. Trick says:

    I don’t think we need our kids spending anymore time in-front of a screen.

  87. chicagofinance says:

    CHESTERFIELD, ENGLAND – A British man thought he would dazzle his girlfriend this Valentine’s Day weekend by whisking her off to Belfast to see the Red Hot Chili Peppers. He plunked down his hard-earned money to buy a pair of tickets in Row Q. The couple then headed up to Belfast for the Feb. 10 show, soon realizing they had tickets to see “the Red Hot Chilli Pipers,” a bagpipe cover band. Silver lining: the band considers itself, according to the website, as the “most famous bagpipe band on the planet.”

  88. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Why not try internet courses taught by the best teachers in each subject?

    Internet courses are a joke. And being the best teacher means putting effort into looking at each student’s work and personally showing them where they are going wrong and what they need to do to move forward. This isn’t a process you can scale up. I’ve done work in online course development as does my wife. It ain’t happening and any schools that move towards this will result in the death sentence to actual learning. Smart kids can learn on their own online. The other 95% can’t.

  89. Libturd says:

    I wouldn’t idolize Switzerland. They are a disgusting government willing to give any genocidal leader a bl0wjob if the price is right. Neutral to the highest bidder.

  90. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    The family that housed him needs to be held responsible as well. You let a troubled kid store a weapon like that in your house?

  91. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    I wonder if housing will go down 30% if rates go back to an 8 handle, or will there be a wage and stock mart rise to offset it.

  92. No One says:

    I’d like to read stories about the Swiss school where Kim Jong Un and his sister went to school. Strangely, it was apparently a pretty normal school, taught in German, and Kim was a terrible student who was absent about half the time.
    http://mentalfloss.com/article/94589/10-things-we-learned-about-kim-jong-un-his-classmates

  93. D-FENS says:

    I can’t remember when, but I think Grim posted historical data points here that contradict the conventional thinking of rising rates = lower housing prices.

    Your thinking is correct. Although the increase in rates is a force that exerts downward pressure on prices, they often come during times where other forces that would raise prices outweigh this downward pressure.

    Hold my beer says:
    February 15, 2018 at 3:12 pm
    3b

    I wonder if housing will go down 30% if rates go back to an 8 handle, or will there be a wage and stock mart rise to offset it

  94. 3b says:

    Defens I am of the belief that rising rates will impact housing prices and couple that with 10k or more for a basic house in a decent town ; however one defines decent. Price is the only thing a buyer has some control over. Were rates to rise to 8 percent prices would drop dramatically IMO. Time will tell.

  95. grim says:

    There is no correlation between home prices and interest rates, nor is there a correlation in the second derivatives of these numbers (eg. increase in real interest rates vs reduction in home prices). There is a slight correlation if you do not use the inflation adjusted numbers, but this is a meaningless correlation, since in periods of high inflation, you see it manifest itself across both rates and asset prices.

    You can cherry pick specific date ranges to show both strong positive and negative correlations. However, in aggregate, there is no real correlation, as would be expected when you are able to cherry pick correlations in both directions, or no correlations at all.

  96. 3b says:

    Grim we shall see. Different world now.

  97. grim says:

    Mid to late 90s, over a two year period there was nearly a full 3% rise in the 30 year while house prices rose.

    In the period leading up to 2000, there was a similar rise in rates over 2 years while prices rose.

    Also, the opposite is true, the period from 2005 until 2014, both home prices and mortgage rates both fell precipitously.

  98. grim says:

    The better way to look at the relationship is this.

    The prevailing mortgage rate, to some extent, represents the demand for mortgage money. Supply and Demand. More demand for mortgages, the higher the price of mortgages (the rate is the price). Huge demand, you’ll see companies ratchet rates higher and increase profitability, because the demand exists to do so.

    In periods where there is no demand for mortgages, mortgage rates would need to be low for these companies to stay in business, so they cut rates to spur business. Fewer customers buying, the greater pressure to reduce rates to compete.

  99. 3b says:

    Grim yes and wages rising. We are only starting to see wages rising now with lots of lost ground to be made up assuming it is made up. And rising health care insurance etc I was one thing when an everyday house could be purchased for 200k or less and property taxes were 4 or 5k. I understand what you are saying I just think the environment has changed dramatically over the last 15 to 20 years and because of that the outcome will be different this time. As I said time will tell.

  100. Yo! says:

    Agree with Grim changing interest rates won’t drive home values.

    First, nearly half of NJ home sales are all cash, so buyers don’t really care where mortgage rates. Interestingly, the percentage of all cash buyers in comparable regions of New England and DC is only in the 20s.

    Second, low inventory and rising prices, along with growing awareness mortgage rates are rising, could finally create the sense of urgency to bring a surge of renters off sidelines and into the homebuying game, bidding home prices.

  101. 3b says:

    Yo we will see. Perhaps in the Hudson Co area. In the traditional suburbs maybe not . We will watch it unfold.

  102. chicagofinance says:

    no correlation is a strong statement, and I would just assume you were speaking vernacular, but when you throw in “second derivatives”, I will need to start taking issue……. I think weak correlation might be a better phrase if true……

    grim says:
    February 15, 2018 at 3:58 pm
    There is no correlation between home prices and interest rates, nor is there a correlation in the second derivatives of these numbers (eg. increase in real interest rates vs reduction in home prices). There is a slight correlation if you do not use the inflation adjusted numbers, but this is a meaningless correlation, since in periods of high inflation, you see it manifest itself across both rates and asset prices.

  103. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, UST 10 dominates pricing…..the effect you describe is on spreads, and in that case, it represents only a very small fraction of the overall rate quote…..it is probably why you say “no correlation”.

    grim says:
    February 15, 2018 at 4:05 pm
    The better way to look at the relationship is this.

    The prevailing mortgage rate, to some extent, represents the demand for mortgage money. Supply and Demand. More demand for mortgages, the higher the price of mortgages (the rate is the price). Huge demand, you’ll see companies ratchet rates higher and increase profitability, because the demand exists to do so.

    In periods where there is no demand for mortgages, mortgage rates would need to be low for these companies to stay in business, so they cut rates to spur business. Fewer customers buying, the greater pressure to reduce rates to compete.

  104. chicagofinance says:

    As you know, origination is an extremely cyclical business. Pure play banks are few and prone to going bust. Most originators have diversified businesses.

  105. chicagofinance says:

    Horsesh!t……… that is the equivalent of saying high property taxes won’t drive home values……

    Yo! says:
    February 15, 2018 at 4:42 pm
    Agree with Grim changing interest rates won’t drive home values.

  106. Nutz Guns and CrackerEthnostatist says:

    from the Sun Sentinel;

    Cruz had been a member of a small, Florida-based white supremacist group, participating in paramilitary training exercises in the Tallahassee area, according to the Anti-Defamation League, a group that monitors racist organizations.

    The group, called Republic of Florida, describes itself as a “white civil rights organization fighting for white identitarian politics” and seeks to create a “white ethnostate” in Florida, according to the Anti-Defamation League’s website.

    A member of Republic of Florida, Jordan Jereb, told the Anti-Defamation League on Thursday, that Cruz was associated with the group but said no one with the group told him to do anything like the school shooting, the nonprofit said in a blog post.

  107. grim says:

    No I mean I sat down, built all variations of the tables in Excel, including derivatives (I used year over year), and ran the correlations.

    The only datasets that had even a remote correlation were based on nominal home prices and nominal 30 year mortgage rate, however this had absolutely no statistical significance, nothing even remotely approaching a P-value below 0.05.

    There is no correlation over any extended period of time. Like I said, you can cherry pick a number of 3-4 year periods to yield statistically significantly correlations in BOTH directions. Which is exactly why there is no long-run correlation….

  108. Hold my beer says:

    Thanks grim,

    Was wondering since I feel like it is 2002 here in north Texas. Prices up over 40% in the last 5 years where historically houses don’t appreciate. And I saw a blurb on the local news about north Texas housing being overvalued.

  109. Very Stable Genius says:

    @chrislhayes

    What possible defense is there of a legal regime where a 19 year old cannot buy a can of beer but can buy a weapon of war?

  110. A Home Buyer says:

    Your right. Why do we let 19 year olds rent and buy these 4 wheel death machines found in every conflict zone across the world. They are used from everything from to ferry troops, ram combatants or civilians, mount weaponry, to even torture.

    They even contribute to global warming! And for what? So people can indulge their fancies and live far away?!

  111. ex-Jersey says:

    If you think about it, eliminate automobiles from kids and no shit lives would be saved.

  112. Yo! says:

    Time for some transit problems in Jersey, say Feds.

    Federal railroad honchos had some things to say in DC today that should get people worried about home values in Central and North Jersey*. At a hearing on positive train control technology in Congress, technology that is supposed to be operating by 12/31/18 federal deadline, these statements were made:

    “We cannot permit no compliant equipment on our railroad after the deadline”
    “It is going to be very difficult for us to allow anybody to operate without PTC”

    These statements were made by the boss of Amtrak, the railroad that owns the tracks on NJ Transit’s Northeast Corridor, the Hudson River tunnels, and Penn Station. Since the odds of NJ Transit getting the PTC in before deadline, and feds taking a harder line on the issue, the odds are rising the NJ Transit train system will be shut down. I put odds of this at less than 50-50 as another deadline extension is still the most likely scenario. If I worked in Manhattan and was considering a move to NJ, I would put the plans on ice and wait out this PTC thing. The NJ-Manhattan commute could get uglier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shGJhjX-rwo
    Quotes above occur at 45:36 and 1:43:50

    * Hudson County would not feel the negative impact of a NJ Transit train shutdown. Hudson’s Manhattan commuters use PATH, ferries, and buses to get Manhattan. If there is an impact it would positive for Hudson home values as The commute time gap between Hudson and the rest of the state widens.

  113. NJdepartment says:

    Prices are already dropping in NJ.. Not sure what is going on. I have been looking to buy in north NJ and I see sellers dropping prices 5-15% in the past 8 weeks.. I was thinking this is becoming unaffordable but looks like this looks good now..
    The market Im talking about went from people bidding to sellers dropping prices 5-
    15% in 8-10 weeks. Not sure if this is due to winter or taxes or bubble.

    The SALT is going to hit very hard for high tax areas… I make around 200K and was looking for 650K properties. Property tax is around 15K. So with the new tax plan, I will be taking a hit of 600-700 per month. Which equates to 125K mortagage payment..

    So, I’m not buying until the price makes sense compared to my rent.. The Rent vs buy equation suddenly changed for me..

  114. Fabius Maximus says:

    So the net result from todays discussion is nothing. No Change. Welcome to America, see you at the next one.

    I suppose the timing on this is ironic.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-signs-bill-revoking-obama-era-gun-checks-people-mental-n727221

  115. NJTPPS says:

    Why the retards on this website threadcrapp all the time.. Why cant they stick to the topic

  116. grim says:

    “We cannot permit no compliant equipment on our railroad after the deadline”
    “It is going to be very difficult for us to allow anybody to operate without PTC”

    And in true Anti-Trump fashion, Murphy orders that work stop on trains out of service awaiting parts for PTC installation, and orders them back into service to alleviate congestion.

  117. grim says:

    You think I just made that up?

    Murphy promises short-term relief for crowded NJ Transit commuter trains

    Gov. Phil Murphy on Thursday announced a plan to put 40 more cars back on NJ Transit rails to answer complaints about squeezing on overcrowded trains.

    The Democratic governor said during a news conference at the Trenton train station that the transportation agency will put 20 rail cars back in service that had been waiting to have Positive Train Control equipment installed. NJ Transit also plans to lease 20 other rail cars from a Maryland commuter agency, Murphy said.

    “It will at least help alleviate the immediate concerns of commuters,” he said.

  118. Yo! says:

    The Trump administration can strike the axe through the head of Murphy by shutting down NJ Transit trains. The first question of a politician’s quality is “do the trains run on time?” Murphy will fail this test.

  119. Juice Box says:

    Grim – gonna have to laugh. Murphy’s only real move is to privatize, the last five governors could not effect any kind of change in on time train schedules. Sow what are they going to do, regional or privatize. I see regional happen first, attempt to pitch that project we all heard about, where they combines Metro North, NJ Transit and LIRR and perhaps the MTA and PATH.

    Christie played ball with the workers and gave many 20% raises to keep the trains running somewhat one time. Murphy’s Wall St scorched earth style does not work with this type of worker, and so Kevin Corbett was brought in to bust it up. Good luck fella….WTC rebuild with the unions was a tough gig.

    Fun times, we cannot run trains into NYC anymore so last stop Hoboken, get ready to double your time and costs commuters….

  120. 3b says:

    NJ department just saw 5 listings in my town drop 5 percent asking prices in put on market right after New Year. Just saying.

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