You don’t get a house just for showing up…

From USA Today:

Home buying market so brutal, some home buyers make offer sight unseen

This spring home-buying season should be a coming-out party for Millennials, many of whom are finally ready to make a purchase after hunkering down for years in their parents’ basements or expensive apartments.

The only problem: Much of the food at the party is gone, and what’s left is priced like caviar.

Although solid job and income growth is emboldening many prospective home buyers, record low housing supplies are driving up prices and curbing sales, especially for Millennials looking to buy starter homes.

“For home buyers, this is shaping up to be one of the most difficult years in recent memory,” says Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist of Veritas Urbis Economics, which studies the housing market.

For sellers, it will be a standout spring that brings big profits, unless those sellers themselves are looking to buy a larger home in the same metro area. “It’s going to have the feel of a hot market,” marked by multiple offers and bidding wars, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Already, house hunters are waiving inspections, making offers without even seeing homes and bidding well above asking price. Yet Yun predicts sales will be flat compared to spring 2017 because of the skimpy supplies and reduced affordability for many buyers.

Meanwhile, existing homeowners, particularly Generation Xers, would like to move to bigger homes but fear not finding one or having to shell out much more for it, especially with average 30-year fixed mortgage rates at 4.4%, up from less than 4% last year, Melendez says. And after the sharp price run-up since 2012, many homeowners worry any new house they buy could lose value. Fifty-three percent of homeowners surveyed by ValueInsured in February think they could see another housing crash, up from 37% in early 2016.

Many Baby Boomers, meanwhile, are delaying retirement and staying in their current homes longer as well, McLaughlin says.

Bottom line: Many existing homeowners are staying put, further limiting the supply of starter homes and pushing up their prices. Buyers of starter homes devoted an average 41.2% of their income to housing costs in the first quarter, up from 37% a year ago, Trulia says. That’s well above the 30% most experts recommend.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

98 Responses to You don’t get a house just for showing up…

  1. grim says:

    Blowout jobs day?

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Coming from the country that protects its own market. This def won’t end well, but I guess no choice at this point.

    “Trump’s moves are reverberating beyond U.S.-China ties. Beijing has called on the European Union to help it reject U.S. protectionism and uphold the international trade order. South Korea on Friday threatened tariffs on imports from the U.S. in retaliation for imposing safeguard duties on washing machines and solar panels.”

    China Vows to Fight Trump Tariffs ‘to the End’ as Tension Rises – Bloomberg
    https://apple.news/ARoy_WVrBTfiFgOwYBAQuwA

  3. 1987 Condo says:

    What is best “composite” decking product? Considering replacing my 20 year old deck.
    Thanks.

  4. Pumkinator says:

    Trump signal the end of free trade. The EU is going to circle the wagons and protect itself. The only ones making noise are the predatory exporters like China, Japan and South Korea. All are notorious on how they rig the free trade thru “cultural” and unofficial means.

    Missed angles of the end of free trade are that the big FIRE economy knowledge centers will face some headwinds. Winds from China not buying/buying less USG debt raising interest way above what the Fed wants by simple market action of demand/supply (this is the greatest and only threat of China/South Korea/Japan’s trade war + add in Yuan based Oil trade and the ME/Saudi Arabia is a mess – their buying kept a lid on interest rates and allowed the FEd to do QE1-infinity without true interest rate market repercussions). Plus populations following returning and new manufacturing moving to cheap areas – not NYC/Boston/DC/SF/LA/Chicago

  5. Very Stable Genius says:

    @StephenKing

    Instead of sending the National Guard to the Mexican border, I think Blabbermouth Don should send them to fix up Puerto Rico.

  6. 1987 Condo says:

    Jobs, I’ll guess low at 137,000

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    Actual- 103,000

  8. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Blowout jobs day?

  9. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Average Hourly Earnings – M/M change 0.3%

    That’s the same number that freaked out the market in Februaury, then it dropped to 0.1% for March (no revision, btw), now back to 0.3%.

  10. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^and I mean date of reports, actually 0.3% for Jan, 0.1% for Feb, 0.3% for March.

  11. 3b says:

    Buying sight unseen, waiving inspections well that’s just stupid!! And 42 percent of income when the recommendation is 30. That will end well!! And Hoboken terminal again this morning filled with tired middle age people!!

  12. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    He can’t be more right. The trade war has been on the entire time and we’ve been a loser because we didn’t even acknowledge it existed.

  13. LurksMcGee says:

    1987 Condo – I’m thinking of redoing my deck as well. Please post what you come up with in terms of materials.

  14. LurksMcGee says:

    3b,

    The “buying sight unseen” is an example of emotions getting in the way of sound decisions.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Who do you think currently has the good jobs (majority speaking)? So why would you expect the trains to be filled with young fathers? The young kids trying to work their way up don’t live in the suburbs. They don’t make enough money in their 20’s to start a family. So they wait till their 30’s to start a family and move to the suburbs. They will be on that train in time, but they won’t be young 20 somethings.

    “Hoboken terminal again this morning filled with tired middle age people!!”

  16. 3b says:

    Hey Doofus their ain’t no young 30 something’s on the train either most are well into their 40s and up!! You sit where you sit everyday but are never out and about and really seeing what is really going on. Now back to ignoring you.

  17. No One says:

    Imagine if Donald Trump made up a rule that said all foreign auto imports were subject to 25% tariffs, and if a foreign carmaker wants to build cars in the US then they have to operate through a 50% owned joint venture with US-government-owned and controlled enterprise under direct control of the Republican Party, and that Republican Party controlled JV company will have mandates to capture intellectual property from the foreign carmaker, as well as a mandate to build its own-branded car (using IP it took from the foreigner) that will compete directly against the JV’s foreign brand.

    Would anyone be outraged and write editorials denouncing this terrible practice? Because replace US with China and replace Republican Party with Chinese Communist Party, and that’s exactly what the Chinese auto industry regulations have been for the last 15 years. And similar rules in many other industries. So where has the f***ing NY times editorial board been? Where has Krugman’s outrage been for all these years? Instead they claim President Xi is the world’s moral authority on free trade, and suck his c0ck at Davos? What stupidity and hypocrisy. They truly are “blame America” thinkers, where only the US can do wrong.

  18. yome says:

    “The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $385 billion in 2016. China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $578.2 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2016. Goods exports totaled $115.6 billion; goods imports totaled $462.6 billion.”

    How much longer can we survive being a consumption economy? China went to 2nd largest economy in the world from a poor Country. A Country can not become a Power House when Consumption is more than it Produce

  19. grim says:

    that’s exactly what the Chinese auto industry regulations have been for the last 15 years. And similar rules in many other industries. So where has the f***ing NY times editorial board been? Where has Krugman’s outrage been for all these years? Instead they claim President Xi is the world’s moral authority on free trade, and suck his c0ck at Davos? What stupidity and hypocrisy. They truly are “blame America” thinkers, where only the US can do wrong.

    Yep. Right on.

  20. Fabius Maximus says:

    No One,

    Why would any CEO sign up for that JV agreement under those onerous conditions?

  21. grim says:

    Chinese government run banks will effectively fund any attempt for a Chinese company to acquire a US company.

    No anti-competitive activity there.

  22. No One says:

    Because China is the world’s largest auto market now. And 10 years ago it was the world’s fastest growing. Most likely hoped that these regulations would fade away as they assumed China would become a more normal country (wrong). What these companies do generally is export their highest priced vehicles from their natural locations to China, figuring that the high end customers are insensitive to the extra 25% tariff’s cost. But for lower priced more mass market vehicles, they know that their choice is either keeping 50% of some profits or keeping 100% of no sales at all.
    But Obama didn’t push China at all to change these rules during his reign. He’s probably intellectually in favor of the redistribution of wealth from rich capitalist countries to poorer fascist ones – that’s the desire of the UN, World Bank, and those kind of “north-south dialogue” type organizations Oblammy revered.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Our business leaders are traitors. They will do anything to maximize the profit in their pocket, even if it means betraying their country and sending their fellow citizens jobs away. Why on earth would you import Indians for good paying jobs unless you only cared about yourself and how much money you can make on this immoral practice.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 6, 2018 at 10:31 am
    No One,

    Why would any CEO sign up for that JV agreement under those onerous conditions?

  24. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Joke is indeed on us.

    grim says:
    April 6, 2018 at 10:43 am
    Chinese government run banks will effectively fund any attempt for a Chinese company to acquire a US company.

    No anti-competitive activity there.

  25. JCer says:

    Yes Don the Con is right about China, it’s not his idea it’s Peter Navarro who the egghead academics are wrong about. China has been engaged in a trade war against us for many years. I don’t want to stop trade with China, there is a place for labor intensive trinkets, low value manufacturing that the US doesn’t have a large population to support. We are winning buying Chinese made phones, TV’s, electronics, plastic trinkets, what we need to be careful about is giving them too much manufacturing knowledge about high value items. the Japanese made a huge mistake sending small engine manufacturing there, now you can buy part for part clones of Honda engines. We also do need to maintain manufacturing for national security purposes. If we can get Western Europe to put up the barriers to trade with China as well they will have no choice but to bend. The Chinese Communists are panicked I think hence their hard line, we can do without their trinkets, once they have some unemployment and the corresponding negative GDP what happens to the unsustainable debt, their stock market bubble, ghost cities and large population that must feed itself with food from other countries all in a repressive dictatorship full of men who cannot find wives due to the population distribution(My guess is political unrest)?

    Companies are stupid and driven by short term profit motives, from a risk perspective you cannot let the Chinese manufacture your high value items, they will steal your technology and Chinese manufacturing success is predicated on low energy costs, in an energy crisis automated manufacturing in the USA becomes much more competitive with Chinese imports.

    On the topic of Elkhart Ind and the WSJ article, they should talk to the boat builders who are unemployed, as the Chinese have moved into Yachts. Once the Chinese determine there is money to be made building RV’s they will try to get into that market and you’ll see pressures in that industry. The Taiwanese taught the Chinese how to build Yachts and now the mainland Chinese are moving into that business. I look at what happened as when the Communists come into power it chased away the rich, the rich were the ones with capital and know how, now that Communist China has sanctioned a rich and powerful class the motivation is back and people are trying to join it by any means and it is state sanctioned and they are acquiring all of the knowledge they lost and missed out on from 1950-1970(really up through 1990) by stealing it from foreign firms who attempt to exploit china’s huge cheap and skilled labor force. That is why local ownership and partnerships with local Chinese companies are a requirement, they take capable and ruthless people and basically set them up to be rich in state owned industry, who they then partner with Western, Japanese and Korean firms. These people learn from those firms and after a while understand how to make the entire widget themselves and will eventually compete with the firm they partnered with selling equivalent products for much less, they will also continue to copy any improvements and new developments by buying new versions of the product and reverse engineering the changes(see lifan who basically makes small honda engines, who once was a partner of Honda in China). You also cannot sell there to the huge market they have without a local partner, this is all so they can access the knowledge.

  26. No One says:

    grim,
    Sure they will. Chinese government banks are basically agents of their treasury department. They totally do politically directed loans. And companies in China are routinely forced to do what they are told, from an investment perspective. Even nominally private companies know the government has too much leverage on them to resist the party’s will.

    And I hear that the Party is gaining strength in company management lately. Increasingly need to be both in the Party and have a Chinese passport to even get invited to key meetings in the company, is what I hear lately.

  27. grim says:

    Once the Chinese determine there is money to be made building RV’s they will try to get into that market and you’ll see pressures in that industry. The Taiwanese taught the Chinese how to build Yachts and now the mainland Chinese are moving into that business.

    This applies to every industry. Like I said above, the Chinese government will fund any acquisition of a US company by a Chinese entity for this specific purpose. Acquire intellectual property and expertise, and bring it back to China.

    They’ve stolen all the IP that is easily stolen, and have now realized that it’s just easier sometimes to buy the IP outright and shut the company down.

  28. grim says:

    One of the best stories I ever read in Bloomberg magazine..

    https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-stealing-dupont-white/

    Read this, it’s nothing short of amazing.

  29. 1987 Condo says:

    Grim, what brand decking did you use? You still happy with it?
    Thanks!

  30. grim says:

    Trex, yes.

    Cut down all your trees though. The pollen makes a mess of any deck.

  31. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Why don’t they just make the composite in a pollen green color? Can you pressure clean the hell out of composite deck material?

    Trex, yes.

    Cut down all your trees though. The pollen makes a mess of any deck.

  32. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Most likely hoped that these regulations would fade away ” That made me smile, yes that was going to happen. Remember MITI in Japan wrote that handbook.

    ATEOTD the signed because it was 50% of a massive market and the loss of IP and the cost of the compitition was dwarfed by the sales and revenue they got.

    We are getting side tracked here. This IP loss is out of the scope of the US administration as it is a private contract and agreed.

  33. Fabius Maximus says:

    Now IP theft is a different matter and the O administration put heavy pressure on the likes of AliBaba to clean up their act. Now if Donnnie shuts down Ma, I will be impressed. But I suspect we get either hot air or a Trade ClusterFCUK. I’m going with the latter.

    Remember this Greatness?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-08/trump-team-said-to-plan-250-billion-in-deals-from-china-visit

  34. grim says:

    Why don’t they just make the composite in a pollen green color? Can you pressure clean the hell out of composite deck material?

    No way, too soft.

    A hose and a push broom works just fine.

  35. JCer says:

    Grim, the funny thing is we basically conditioned them to do this, they started because greedy business people saw an opportunity to sell in China and use China for cheap labor. The ChiComms quickly figured out they could learn what they needed about manufacturing and how to make products domestically, now they can go back and buy US and European companies to gain that knowledge.

    I still contend the media has the situation all wrong, China is crazy protectionist and we are just now waking up to the fact that the liberalization has been slower than expected and we need them to adjust their trade policies if we are going to continue to conduct fruitful business with them. If the Chinese try to dump their treasuries they will lose literally TONS of money if they do so, so I don’t see that as a likely option for them. It would hurt us but they forget we pretty much invented financial crime and can print in kind to buy up the treasuries they flood the market with or raise interest rates on treasuries to effectively eliminate the market for their low rate instruments. The ChiComms are worried without western consumption their centrally planned economy deviates from plan in a totally unfathomable ways. When you have huge debts, ghost cities, factories, a huge repressed population and now unemployment, food shortages and general economic malaise hits the government now has not just economic problems to deal with but civilian unrest.

    Trump needs to do something unprecedented for Trump, he needs to work with European leaders and needs to get them on board with economic sanctions against China. Unemployed factory workers in France, Italy, and Spain would be on board, the Germans too have faced wage pressure as a result of China as well. The mere risk of a Trade war not just against America but against the EU as well will bring China to the table to negotiate. This is why the ChiComms are asking Europe to take their side.

    If the Europeans side with China they are dumber than I’ve ever thought, we restored these people’s freedom and democracy, rebuilt them after war, helped them with technology and protected them from the menace of Communism(Ask the Poles, East Germans and Czechs how much fun being a Soviet Satellite Republic was).

  36. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    I still like a wood deck. If weather-treated every two years, you should easily get 10 years and may get up to 20. And it’s like 4 times cheaper. I’m on year 5 and it still looks great. I plan to brush on the sealer this year as it is starting to show signs of age and want a nice thick coat. I love the way a painted deck looks, but you really want to wait until the wood starts showing gaps and cracks before moving to paint. Also, paint is too slippery when wet, though way easier to clean.

  37. 1987 Condo says:

    I’m on year 22…been replacing boards as needed…if I move in next 4-6 years I am wondering if I am better off “upgrading” it now for eventual resale.

  38. Fabius Maximus says:

    “If the Chinese try to dump their treasuries they will lose literally TONS of money”

    I would not rule that out. They are playing a long game and would recover quicker that the US.

    The answer in some ways is to make sure they have their thumb off the scale and we get a fair floating rate between the currencies.

  39. Fast Eddie says:

    I’ve had wood and Trex, I’ll take wood because it’s organic and is beautiful in every shape. Trex began to smell like plastic when in scorching heat all day. To each his/her own.

  40. JCer says:

    Libturd, lifespan between wood and composites isn’t much different the big difference is maintenance, pressure treated decking is good in years 1-5 with just some sealant every 2-3 years buy year 5 it starts to weather more and more and the maintenance becomes annual to keep it looking good by 7-10 years you have to paint to make it look nice and then you are on the painting routine of repainting every 3-5 years. But structurally good GC wood(not the garbage bought at HD or Lowes) can last 40-50 year structurally if maintained. The big bonus with composites is they look good for 10 or more years with pretty much no maintenance, exposure to the elements discolors them and they can be stained, my mom just had her 15 year old composite decks painted, and they look great again and should stay that way for 5 years until it needs to be done again(SW SuperDeck Dock paint, expensive paint but worth it). My favorite deck material is Ipe wood, hard as nails, weathers to a beautiful silver, clean it with a pressure washer and you’re good to go no sealing, no rotting, and the look of natural wood, drawback is the cost and the difficulty working with it, hard to cut and every fastener needs to be pre-drilled.

  41. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    Is it still safe to order Chinese for dinner?

  42. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    Well we used some quality PT from a real lumber yard, but the thinner pieces warp none the less. The deck floor is in perfect condition. The thin boards on the top of the rails exposed to direct sun and flat (water settles on them) are warping badly, but are the easiest by far to replace. My fun project this year is putting up string lighting around the deck and I want to improve the crap lattice we originally installed. May go to vinyl on it.

  43. Libturd, AKA Dr. Howie Feltersnatch says:

    How much longer before we should expect Trump to tweet out a bad General Tso joke?

  44. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Here’s the big picture:

    Trump has derailed the “easy” market for institutions. With an escalator that always goes up, institutions can easily front-run retail. With this level of volatility, retail becomes unpredictable to the algos, and…smart guys can expose, and benefit, from the laziness and slowness of the institutions to react.

    The “automatic” institutional gravy train is being derailed.

  45. grim says:

    My deck is 6 years old and still basically looks brand new after the spring wash-up.

    Holding up great, I love it.

    The top decking cost me about $1200. PT would have cost me half that probably. Something like IPE would have been double.

    Replacing the top decking is simple and would probably take me a day.

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    You can see it especially in the interviews of CNBC shills of Trump’s inner financial circle. I don’ think the talking heads are afraid, rather, they are told ordered to act afraid and confrontational when interviewing Mnuchin, Ross, Navarro, et al.

  47. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The deck sounds like a bargain compared to the $60K+ in taxes you’ve paid on it. (sorry grim, couldn’t resist)

    My deck is 6 years old and still basically looks brand new after the spring wash-up.

  48. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    IIRC, grim – your deck is free-standing, no anchors to the house, correct? I’m assuming that has been working out great, no “panel gap”?

  49. grim says:

    Yes, freestanding. Gap to the house looks great still, it’s about 1/2″ or so. You would have no idea it wasn’t lagged to the house. Sitting on 12 piers, it’s stable as all hell.

  50. grim says:

    Way more than $60k in taxes. I’m up to $13k now.

  51. 3b says:

    Lib I love the string lighting on the decks as well. I plan to do that this year too. Stringing two sets in an x shape across the deck. I got the old fashioned light bulb type sets. It really adds something to the atmosphere!

  52. Fast Eddie says:

    no “panel gap”?

    There’s a joke in there somewhere, isn’t there?

    Just like someone discussing “black licorice” the other day. ;) Is black licorice a 17th century disease, a pron star or a metal band?

  53. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I was just thinking about the piers. If your yard wasn’t really level, as I think your yard is, would you engineer slightly different sized piers to discourage downhill settling? Particularly if some settling would move the deck toward the house?

    BTW, I knew your taxes were higher, I didn’t want my good-natured barb to be too sharp.

    Way more than $60k in taxes. I’m up to $13k now.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Nope. I’m no more clever than Pumps. I just have a formal education and marginally better genes (I’m only 1/4 Polish).

    no “panel gap”?

    There’s a joke in there somewhere, isn’t there?

  55. nwnj says:

    Fabius is the case study patient for TDS. It’s clouded his judgement so badly he’s incoherent.

    He’s ok with dumping, currency manipulation and a race to the bottom(as long as trump is pres). Not exactly the classic lib position.

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I just hope we have a federal task force already focused on providing security when the red wave hits in the November election. I already set up my DVR set to record on 2 cable news and 2 network news channels.

    Fabius is the case study patient for TDS. It’s clouded his judgement so badly he’s incoherent.

  57. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Patient Zero

    Fabius is the case study patient for TDS.

  58. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I’ve really, really, missed this kind of stock market. I thought it might not ever return.

  59. grim says:

    Just like someone discussing “black licorice” the other day. ;) Is black licorice a 17th century disease, a pron star or a metal band?

    Trixter played at the distillery for a fundraiser last night. PJ was awesome.

  60. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Don’t buy the dip on NHMD quite yet. Pancake in a can is a great idea, but where is the steel ultimately going to be manufactured?

  61. Fast Eddie says:

    Trixter played at the distillery for a fundraiser last night. PJ was awesome.

    Geezus Chr1st, announce this things ahead of time! I would have loved to have made a visit!

  62. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Pumps just called and said that the can is aluminum! Buy! Buy! Buy!

  63. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Chi – It’s OK if I move to a 7 figure investment in MSCC, right?

  64. JCer says:

    Grim even at ~13k your taxes are a bargain for Wayne, given the nearly 3% effective tax rate and the improvements you’ve made to your home(we’ve seen the pictures of your kitchen) your home is in no way worth only approximately 430k. Do you have incriminating photos of the Towns Tax Assessor or are they part of the polish mafia?

  65. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It’s amazing how accepting you get of prices in the NY area. I think it just works because everyone(who is anybody) is doing enduring it. I was part of that for a long time, but almost can’t remember now as an outsider looking in.

  66. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Snowing (and accumulating!) like crazy here in Boston. April 6th, why not?

  67. JCer says:

    Grim on the decking that’s the point, no real maintenance and for at least 10 years it looks pretty much the way it did the day it was installed, no one knows how the newest generation will fare longevity wise but at least what I could see on my moms house it did well but did get stained some and there was definitely some sun bleaching so it no longer matched the paint colors, it didn’t look bad but certainly not fresh, mind you it was 16 years old. I consider that a pretty good run. Ipe is a really premium product, with a premium cost the material is $4-5 per board foot at least and the labor to install is 2-3 times what wood or composite is because of the weight, the need to edge seal all cuts and the screws need to be 305 stainless, etc.

  68. yome says:

    When US Companies get their goods manufactured in China,they have to teach Chinese Companies and Workers how to manufacture this goods to their Spec. This is basically giving away years of innovation. Chinese Companies and Workers will build their own product in Competition of the US Companies and will claim Original Patent of the product. This is true to any Country that Manufacture Foreign Goods. It is basically giving away Innovation in exchange for cheap labor

  69. JCer says:

    expat it just is, when there is no alternative and your livelihood is here, what can you do? At the end of the day if you live in a high tax county like Essex or Passaic you knew full well going in that a 3% of home value property tax was likely and home prices correspond, just like in Bergen, Morris, and union the 2-2.5% tax is the expectation. The wife and I combined in salary and bonus are anywhere from 350-425k, we are both in tech, the only other markets where we can get paid like we are here would be SF, maybe Seattle not too sure about anywhere else and I make some money on my rental property as well. I’m paying nearly 40k in property taxes on my primary residence(another 10k on the rental), it turns my stomach a little that I pay the government a new loaded C-class Mercedes every year. As much as I don’t like it, the alternatives are worse, I cannot replicate my income elsewhere. So figure I’m getting whacked to the tune of an extra 20-25k as long as I’m working it is an acceptable price to pay to make the money, once retirement is on the horizon the house is gone, no feasible way to support it without big income.

  70. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    JCer – Even though by 30 years old I had already owned some small places in NJ, it never really hit me until that time when I met my (eventual) wife, her parents lived in Glen Rock, how expensive NJ could be. And I lived my whole life there! I don’t know how I figured out what was what back before the internet, maybe conversation with her parents over dinner, but somehow I found out that their taxes were about $13K way back then (circa 1990). That astounded me. Being an engineer I did the quick back-of-the-envelope math. I told my (then) gf – “Do you know if your parents gave you their house free and clear, you could not afford to live there?” That blew me away. I couldn’t imagine that if somebody gave you a house you couldn’t afford to keep it. That very same house, still owned by the family that my in-laws sold to, is now $35K in taxes.

  71. Jcer says:

    Yep expat people pay it because they can and there aren’t alternatives. You can do long Island or Westchester but they have similar and sometimes worse taxes, only CT is marginally better. You need to make the cheddar to live here otherwise you live poor. 35k in taxes it must be some home in bergen County that means an assessment of at least 1.3m.

  72. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Homework Therapists are apparently a thing….

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/nyregion/homework-therapists-tutoring-counseling-new-york.html

    Don’t laugh. Thin skinned students are the norm. And the way teachers deal with their never ending drama and complaining from the parents/admin is to just give everyone an A.

  73. Ex-Jersey says:

    Welcome to the end of the Obama recovery.

  74. Fabius Maximus says:

    “He’s ok with dumping, currency manipulation and a race to the bottom(as long as trump is pres). Not exactly the classic lib position.”

    No, go back and reread. I am not for currency dumping, but if China did it I would not be surprised, I have no control over that and would not like to see it, as it will end badly for all.

    Trump is CinC and I have to respect him for that. While I don’t like the result of the election I have to accept the result and I do. The Russia investigation and that outcome and how we will move forward from that is outside the scope of that.
    I wished Donnie well after election night and I meant it. I followed it up with reminding Gary of how he accepted the O presidency. You have congress and the executive and your right leaning Supreme Court. There is no excuse why this county shouldn’t be over-achieving. But the reality (how appropriate) is, that this Administration is a train wreck.

    “classic lib position” I get fed up of terms like this. The main reason is that the person that throws out the term, has no idea what it actually means. Do I support Classic Liberal Positions, “Yes”. So I support what you (and a lot of others ) think are Liberal positions, “No”.

  75. Libturd says:

    Fab,
    We have surprisingly similar positions. Of course, I’m much less politically wonky.

  76. Ex-Jersey says:

    Anyone who doesn’t cringe at what is happening in Washington is not paying attention.

  77. joyce says:

    Then why do you project other “positions” based on other “political terms” as you see fit? Copy/paste that link to what some random person thinks right wingers thinks about left wingers.

    Fabius Maximus says:
    April 6, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    “classic lib position” I get fed up of terms like this. The main reason is that the person that throws out the term, has no idea what it actually means. Do I support Classic Liberal Positions, “Yes”. So I support what you (and a lo

  78. joyce says:

    Also curious as to your definition of Classic Liberalism.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nj is a bargain in comparison to these locations, but no one wants to talk about that.

    “we are both in tech, the only other markets where we can get paid like we are here would be SF, maybe Seattle not too sure about anywhere else”

  80. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Politics is similar to self mutilation….

  81. Fabius Maximus says:

    Lib, yes I am a total self-admitted wonk!

    Joyce, I don’t project other “positions”, I just hold my own and will happily debate and defend them.

    What is Classical Liberalism? I will give you this quote. I agree with some of it and disagree with parts of it. But is one that the Rand Heads and the Reaganites have latched onto and hijacked.

    “As every individual, therefore, endeavours as much as he can both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce may be of the greatest value; every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good. It is an affectation, indeed, not very common among merchants, and very few words need be employed in dissuading them from it.”

  82. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Jcer – LOL. It’s a tad more complex. What looks like the gorgeous backyard of a beautiful corner lot backyard of a 1955 bi-level (but a nice one, three car garage) – is actually a separate build lot. I think the town is steadily increasing the tax on the lot to force the current or next owner to sell or build a house there…so they can tax it more.

    35k in taxes it must be some home in bergen County that means an assessment of at least 1.3m.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^Horrors! Not a bi-level, a split-level, but with an extra split.

  84. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Actually two extra splits. The house was actually on 6 split levels if you count the basement and the main level being about 2-3 steps up from the garage.

    Levels:
    Finished Basement
    3 car Garage
    Main
    3 Bed, 2 bath level
    My wife’s bedroom
    Attic

  85. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    The attic was also about 2-3 steps up through my wife’s walk-in closet.

  86. Lurks McGee says:

    Maybe I’m reading into Jcer’s comments too deeply, but what income level is living poorly in Nj? By the sounds of things, you’d slit your wrists if you made 150k combined.

  87. joyce says:

    Fabius,
    1) sure
    2) another non answer answer

  88. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    For all the people that think teachers have this “amazing Cadillac health plan”. My coworker requires surgery on both eyes. Insurance covers one, but not the second. They argue that the second eye is “cosmetic” and you only need one good eye. I’ve said it before, the plan charges $20-$30k but covers the same crap as everyone else. It’s a scam and the teachers and taxpayers paying this are on the losing end. Horizon and Aetna are on the winning end.

  89. Nomad says:

    Lib, 31 Lloyd Rd in your old hood looks like a nice place, taxes listed at $25k. Is this place ripe for reassessment? I am not a potential buyer, just curious.

    In other news, anyone see the ink on Deerfield IL? Local legislation just passed banning assault style rifles and semi-auto pistols. Lawsuits apparently already filed against legislation. Comrade, given your profession, thoughts on the legislation itself I read it but no legal training so not qualified to assess.

    China trying to buy their oil in Yuan vs $$ and trying to set up trading market to do so laster this year. Will this really happen and what does it mean for US?

  90. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    What it usually means is that the US kills your head of state.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    Dude….. you have no idea what bad is…..

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    April 7, 2018 at 11:36 am
    For all the people that think teachers have this “amazing Cadillac health plan”. My coworker requires surgery on both eyes. Insurance covers one, but not the second. They argue that the second eye is “cosmetic” and you only need one good eye. I’ve said it before, the plan charges $20-$30k but covers the same crap as everyone else. It’s a scam and the teachers and taxpayers paying this are on the losing end. Horizon and Aetna are on the winning end.

  92. jcer says:

    Here’s the thing why would oil producing countries want Yuan? I wouldn’t trust the Chinese as far as I can thow them, the Yuan is only useful in China, if I’m the arabs I want USD, Euros, or CHF those are the only countries I view as stable enough to want to hold their currency(a free trade in those currencies already exists). The only way people start taking RMB for oil is a considerable premium vs. forex(usd vs. rmb) and then I’d only be selling enough oil that I could use those Yuan in the next 6 months on goods.

    Lurks 150k combined can be tough in this area, how many kids? For a couple 150k is a good middle probably upper middle class income in NJ, you can afford a 2 bedroom condo or a small home in a good neighborhood and live a fairly cushy life, if you add a kid or 2 it becomes harder. The question is do both people work or does 1 earn the 150k, if one earns 150k it’s easier less fica and no childcare is huge. We have friends who make not much more than that but it’s a single income, the purchase of a home in a good town is the killer between the obscene prices people are asking for bad houses and the property taxes they have had a hard time finding anything in their budget and have stayed put in their condo. If a single person makes at least 100k they can handle the expense pretty well, so combined 200k with both working is totally middle class doable here. It keeps getting more and more crazy when I first started working around the turn of the century I was making like 60k and had a big 2 bedroom rental in Jersey City with parking, the rent was like 1700 per month, my wife who was my gf at the time had a small 2 bedroom in Hoboken and was paying about the same, now those apartments literally have sold for over 700k. The problem is wages have not kept up with the inflation in housing(rent and buy), healthcare and education, the government and it’s taxes have really exacerbated the problem here as it just amplifies the increases.

    ExPat I know complex property tax situations, my taxes are so high because I have 2 acres in a place where a 1/4 acre is the standard zoning and my property has 2 or 3 lots, but it’s totally unbuildable based on the steep slope, a series of cliffs, a stream and the fact that my home is dead center on the property leaving no room to build a home. It becomes very difficult to appeal the taxes when your home is an odd ball despite no one being willing to buy the property at the assed price for 2 years, the town and county still dig their heels in despite my sales price being 300k less than the assessment. It is criminal, the property taxes actually force people out of their homes and result in foreclosure. The prior owner of my home lost his job as an I-Banker in 2009 during the bust and couldn’t afford the property taxes any longer in and wound up in default, he couldn’t get the money out of the house that he put in, he couldn’t even get the amount he owed on the mortgage. I think the guy couldn’t replace his old income and by 2012 decided he needed to sell but tried for 2 years and couldn’t get it and in 2014 he just stopped paying the mortgage and of course the property taxes in the 2 years he didn’t pay the interest and property taxes alone were 160k, in the short sale the bank lost something like 600k.

  93. Blue Ribbon Teacher says:

    Dude….. you have no idea what bad is…..

    I sure do. I worked for my father doing medical billing. But the idea that we have this grand plan is fictitious and it’s a talking point that needs to die.

  94. 3b says:

    Jcer and the one income couple is in a much more precarious position if they lose a job today than in the past. That’s why many keep the job even if it all goes to daycare for a few years.

  95. Chi says:

    When? What years? Current? Recent?

    Blue Ribbon Teacher says:
    April 7, 2018 at 3:20 pm
    Dude….. you have no idea what bad is…..

    I sure do. I worked for my father doing medical billing. But the idea that we have this grand plan is fictitious and it’s a talking point that needs to die.

  96. Chi says:

    Also, your eye comment. First, I’m sorry that person had to deal with such a thing. My wife was put in the exact same position? How much out of pocket? You understand also that even out of pocket, there is an incredibly low stop loss.

  97. Jcer says:

    Oh I know that’s why the wife and I work. We are prepared for the loss of a job. The point is single earner income is worth more than when 2 people are bringing in the money. The stay at home spouse can do a lot that otherwise needs to be paid for. Since both of us work we pay for daycare, a cleaning company, a land scraper….at least some of that could be handled by a stay at home spouse. Furthermore all things equal if the household income is 150k and you lose half of it you are not in great shape.

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